[ { "cmeID" : "2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-04-01T23:45Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-04-03T15:02Z", "maxKP" : 6.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Large partial halo CME seen in GOES CCOR-1 with brighter bulk mostly directed to the northwest with wider, fainter shock extending from the north to the southwest starting around 2026-04-01T23:45Z in association with a large-scale, strong filament eruption occurring near N28W25 around 2026-04-01T23:00Z with an associated long-duration C-class flare; the eruption is characterized by destabilizing filament channel starting as early as 22:30Z in SDO AIA 193 followed by a lift off of the filament channel best seen in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 with bright post eruptive arcades and a broad, large dimming siganture seen best in SDO AIA 193. The core prominence structure and the widely opening field lines are also seen very well in GOES SUVI 284.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-04-02T03:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-04-04T02:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.92", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Juice, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-04-02T03:07:46Z\n## Message ID: 20260402-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by GOES. \n\nStart time of the event: 2026-04-01T23:45Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~938 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, and Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2026-04-03T02:03Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-04T08:01Z, STEREO A at 2026-04-04T02:03Z, and Juice at 2026-04-06T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the southern flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-04-04T02:49Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001):\n\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001) is associated with a C6.1 flare from Active Region 14403 (N20W23) with ID 2026-04-01T23:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-04-01T23:28Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2026-04-02T12:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-04-03T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.78", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-04-02T01:45Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1500\nLongitude (deg): 22W\nLatitude (deg): 16N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 37\n\nNotes: Low confidence due to limited imagery\nSpace weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-04-02T13:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-04-03T16:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.99, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.82, "confidenceInPercentage" : 33.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.83", "predictionNote" : "*** LASCO ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/04/01 23:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 03:55Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 11:15Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction\nPOS Difference: 7:20\nPOS Midpoint: 07:35Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:20\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~4.99\nTravel Time: ~4.99 * 8:20 = 41:35\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-04-03T16:50Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/04/02 13:09Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-04-02T13:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-04-05T10:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.84, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.67, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "43.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.82", "predictionNote" : "*** LASCO ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/04/01 23:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 03:55Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 11:15Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction\nPOS Difference: 7:20\nPOS Midpoint: 07:35Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:20\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: -2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~10\nTravel Time: ~10 * 8:20 = 83:22\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-04-05T10:37Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/04/02 13:10Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-04-02T17:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-04-04T00:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.35, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.66, "confidenceInPercentage" : 88.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.57", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-04-02T20:34:51Z\n## Message ID: 20260402-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260402-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 27 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2026-04-03T17:47Z and 2026-04-04T05:32Z (average arrival 2026-04-03T23:45Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-04-03T14:52Z and 2026-04-04T10:53Z (average arrival 2026-04-04T00:13Z) for 88% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 77% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-04-02_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO079/20260401_234500_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO079_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-04-02_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO079/20260401_234500_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO079_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-04-02_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO079/20260401_234500_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO079_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-04-02_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO079/20260401_234500_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO079_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-04-02_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO079/20260401_234500_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO079_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe CME event with ID 2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact BepiColombo at 2026-04-03T02:03Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-04T08:01Z, and Juice at 2026-04-06T06:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240809-AL-001).\n\nThis CME event (2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.1 flare from Active Region 14403 (N20W23) with ID 2026-04-01T23:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-04-01T23:28Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-04-02_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO079/Detailed_results_20260401_234500_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO079.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-04-03T09:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-04-04T04:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 71.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.00", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-04-03T09:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-04-03T23:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 77.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.00", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2026-04-03T09:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-04-03T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.33, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.33, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.00", "predictionNote" : "Prediction Method: ELEvo\n \nPredicted Arrival Time: 2026-04-03T23:00Z (+/- 6.33h) \n\nPredicted Arrival Speed: 730 +/- 144 km/s \n\nCME input parameters: \n\nApex direction (deg): 24.0 longitude, 19.5 latitude \n\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 \n\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 48.5 \n\ninitial CME speed: 1079.0 (+/- 50) km/s \n\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun \n\ninitial time: 2026-04-02T02:30Z \n\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \n\nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s \n\ntime step: 10 min \n\nensemble members: 50k" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-03-30T03:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-04-01T11:29Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Large partial-halo CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an X1.4 flare from Active Region 14405 (S27E45) peaking at 2026-03-30T03:19Z. The source is associated with brightening, dimming, moving/opening field lines, and EUV wave as seen in GOES SUVI 195, 304, 284, 131, 094, and 171 starting around 2026-03-30T02:56Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-30T04:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-31T10:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.73", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-30T04:45:21Z\n## Message ID: 20260330-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2026-03-30T03:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1845 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 44 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -27/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-01T12:00Z and STEREO A at 2026-04-02T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-03-31T10:40Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 7-9 (strong to extreme).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_050700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_050700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_050700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_050700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_050700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_050700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_050700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001) is associated with the X1.4 flare from Active Region 14405 (S27E45) with ID 2026-03-30T02:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-03-30T03:19Z (see notifications 20260330-AL-001, 20260330-AL-002).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-30T06:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-31T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.48", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-03-30 05:22\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1831.79\nLongitude (deg): -31.6\nLatitude (deg): -8.6\nHalf-angular width (deg): 46.0\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-30T06:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-04-01T04:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 30.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 30.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.48", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 1500 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 500 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 45 deg\n\nPredicted Vmax = 666 ± 341 km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-30T11:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-31T12:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.17, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.17, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.63", "predictionNote" : "Prediction Method: ELEvo\n \nPredicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-31T12:17Z (+/- 6.17h) \n\nPredicted Arrival Speed: 964 +/- 271 km/s \n\nCME input parameters: \n\nApex direction (deg): -27.0 longitude, -14.0 latitude \n\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 \n\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 44.0 \n\ninitial CME speed: 1845.0 (+/- 50) km/s \n\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun \n\ninitial time: 2026-03-30T05:07Z \n\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \n\nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s \n\ntime step: 10 min \n\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-30T12:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-31T16:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.25, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.91, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.40", "predictionNote" : "*** CCOR1 & LASCO ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/03/30 03:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 06:40Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 12:00Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:20\nPOS Midpoint: 08:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:35\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.59\nTravel Time: ~6.59 * 5:35 = 36:49\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-03-31T16:09Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/03/30 12:03Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-30T12:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-31T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.33", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2026-03-31T19:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nMax Kp Range: 6-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-30T12:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-31T15:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.87", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45403/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001 with Final CME Analysis based on all available coronagraph imagery: Lon.=-43.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=1689.0, HalfAngle=46.0, Time21.5=2026-03-30T05:19Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-31T15:07Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =23.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-04-02T07:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-30T18:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-31T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.98", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-30T20:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-31T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.75", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# HALO CME ALERTS from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium), generated by CACTUS #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n\n A halo or partial-halo CME was detected with the following characteristics:\n\n t0 | dt0| pa | da | v | dv | minv| maxv|\n2026-03-30T03:24:22.828 | 5.0 | 132 | 150 | 1024 | 318 | 385 | 1562\n\n\n t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff\n dt0: duration of liftoff (hours)\n pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees)\n da: angular width of the CME (degrees),\n v: median velocity (km/s)\n dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME\n mindv: lowest velocity detected within the CME\n maxdv: highest velocity detected within the CME\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 60330\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Mar 2026, 1248UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 31 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 01 Apr 2026 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 007\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 644) was detected\nin SOHO/LASCO-C2 on 30 March at 03:24 UTC. Automated CACTus detection\nreports a full halo CME (width 360 degrees) with a principal angle of 132\ndegrees and a projected speed of 1024 km/s. This CME is associated with the\nX1.4 flare (SIDC Flare 7290), which peaked at 03:19 UTC from SIDC Sunspot\nGroup 836 (NOAA Active Region 4405). This event was also accompanied by a\nType II radio emission, indicating the presence of a shock wave propagating\nthrough the solar corona, with an estimated velocity of 1872 km/s. Initial\n3D analysis suggests a propagation direction towards (S15E30) with an\nangular width of approximately 45 degrees and a speed of about 1835 km/s.\nThe source region is consistent with the flare location at approximately\n(S27E42). Given its source location and propagation direction, this CME is\nexpected to impact Earth in about 25-35 hours." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-30T20:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-31T16:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.21, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 92.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.72", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260330-AL-006). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 26 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (92%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-03-31T09:56Z and 2026-03-31T22:27Z (average arrival 2026-03-31T16:09Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 64% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\n\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-30_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO078/20260330_032400_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO078_anim_tim-den.gif\n\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-30_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO078/20260330_032400_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO078_arrival_Earth.gif\n\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-30_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO078/20260330_032400_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO078_Earth_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe CME event with ID 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-02T07:00Z, Lucy at 2026-04-10T12:00Z and Juno at 2026-04-12T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notifications 20260330-AL-003, 20260330-AL-004, 20260330-AL-005 and 20260330-AL-006).\n\nThis CME event (2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001) is associated with the X1.4 flare from Active Region 14405 (S27E45) with ID 2026-03-30T02:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-03-30T03:19Z (see notifications 20260330-AL-001, 20260330-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-30_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO078/Detailed_results_20260330_032400_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO078.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-31T02:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-31T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.48", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1521\nLongitude (deg): -36\nLatitude (deg): -26\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-31T19:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-31T16:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 88.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.875, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.30", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-31T19:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-31T15:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.30", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-31T19:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-04-01T06:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.30", "predictionNote" : "* Change of the Impact Type for a potential latest possible transit time, not accounting for CIR interactions. *\n\n*** CCOR1 & LASCO ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/03/30 03:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 06:40Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 12:00Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:20\nPOS Midpoint: 08:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:35\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: -1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.1\nTravel Time: ~9.1 * 5:35 = 50:49\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-04-01T06:04Z\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/03/31 19:05Z" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-03-22T16:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-03-22T16:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-03-25T05:53Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This somewhat asymmetric bright CME is visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2 for a few frames before a usual overnight data gap and in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. Its source is a significant filament eruption with associated brightening/dimming starting around 2026-03-22T15:30Z, followed by high rising post-eruptive arcades, as seen in GOES SUVI 304, 284, and 195 centered around S20E15, south of Active Region 14398, and seen as ejecta and opening of field lines seen in STEREO A EUV 195/403 on/close to the SE limb. It appears that there may be some SE deflection/directionality to it,. as it erupts and progresses outward in the GOES SUVI 284 field of view. There is a bright bulk front and a wider faint shock front seen in all three coronagraphs. | Arrival information: Increase in B_total from 3.88 nT to 7.21 nT increasing to a maximum of 10.19 nT. Solar wind speed increased from roughly 530 km/s to roughly 600 km/s. Minor increase in solar wind temperature and density were also observed. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME with ID 2026-03-22T16:23:00-CME-001 which was modeled to impact missions near Earth at 2026-03-25T08:55Z (+/- 7 hours).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-22T19:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-25T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.72", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45248/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-22T16:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-36.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=468.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2026-03-22T23:43Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-25T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_234300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-22T20:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-26T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.67, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.67, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "32.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.92", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2026 Mar 23 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n\n...Open field lines and faint CME material originated from the vicinity\nof CH31, as seen in GOES CCOR-1 imagery at approximately 22/0645 UTC.\nA subsequent CME was observed in GOES CCOR-1 imagery beginning at\n22/1715 UTC associated with a filament disappearance observed on GONG\nimagery. Initial modeling of these events indicates a glancing blow at\nEarth on 26 Mar, which is outside of the three-day forecast period, with\na bulk of the material missing south and behind Earth's orbit.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n...Forecast...\nThe solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through the\nforecast period. CH HSS influences are expected to begin to wane on 24\nMar and continue a weakening trend through 25 Mar.\n\nGeospace\n\n.Forecast...\nPeriods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are expected on\n23 Mar in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of\nactive conditions are expected on 24-25 Mar as negative polarity CH HSS\ninfluences continue, but gradually diminish." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-22T23:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-25T22:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.62, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.23, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.92", "predictionNote" : "*** CCOR1 ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/03/22 16:05Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 21:30Z; 20Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 23:40Z; 20Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:10\nPOS Midpoint: 22:35Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~12.13\nTravel Time: ~12.13 * 6:30 = 78:50\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-03-25T22:55Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 75%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/03/22 23:54Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-23T00:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-25T08:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.75", "predictionNote" : "Prediction for analysis of the brighter BULK front of the CME.\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-23T00:08:21Z\n## Message ID: 20260323-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2026-03-22T16:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~655 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -34/-36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2026-03-22T16:23:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-03-25T08:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-03-22T16:23:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_214900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_214900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_214900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_214900_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_214900_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-23T00:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-24T17:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.65", "predictionNote" : "Prediction for analysis of the fainter SHOCK front of the CME.\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45254/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-22T16:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-15.0, Lat.=-26.0, Speed=863.0, HalfAngle=49.0, Time21.5=2026-03-22T20:45Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-24T17:30Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =11.1 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.1\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-25T01:49Z\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-23T18:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260322_204500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-23T02:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-25T09:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.53", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-03-22 21:49\n - Time at C2: 2026-03-22 16:23\n - Radial speed: 655.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 38 deg\n - Eruption location: S36E34\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 602.50 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2026-03-25 09:37 (i.e. predicted transit time: 65.23 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-23T11:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-25T05:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.767, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.867, "confidenceInPercentage" : 19.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.70", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-23T11:11:33Z\n## Message ID: 20260323-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-03-22T16:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260323-AL-001).\n\nBased on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 26 ensemble members (see notes section), 5 (19%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-03-25T01:45Z and 2026-03-25T10:23Z (average arrival 2026-03-25T05:31Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 60% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-22_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO077/20260322_162300_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO077_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-22_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO077/20260322_162300_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO077_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-22_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO077/20260322_162300_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO077_Earth_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-22_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO077/Detailed_results_20260322_162300_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO077.txt\n###\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-23T12:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-25T07:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.83, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.83, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.55", "predictionNote" : "Prediction Method: ELEvo\n \nPredicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-25T07:27Z (+/- 7.83h) \n\nPredicted Arrival Speed: 605 +/- 100 km/s \n \nCME input parameters: \n\nApex direction (deg): -24.5 longitude, -31.0 latitude \n\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 \n\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 43.5\n\ninitial CME speed: 759 (+/- 50) km/s \n\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun \n\ninitial time: 2026-03-22T21:17Z\n\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \n\nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s \n\ntime step: 10 min \n\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-23T14:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-25T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.30", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-03-23T01:36Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 817\nLongitude (deg): 028E\nLatitude (deg): 30S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 30 \n\nNotes: Assessed twice by successive advisors with similar results, left first advisor's assessment unaltered. This solution encompasses wider ejecta seen on C2, C3, CCOR1 along track of STEREO A COR2 imagery (that stops too early to be directly used for fit). Bulk of material in narrower lobe heading SE of Sun-Earth line but decided could not rule out filament material in wider cone given extent of lift off.\n\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence after Tony Gillard" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-24T12:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-25T11:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 48.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.52429, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.23857, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-24T12:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-25T08:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-03-18T09:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T20:17Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo CME first seen to the SE by STEREO A COR2 at 2026-03-18T09:23Z, as well as to the West in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is an M2.7 flare from Active Region 4392 (S16W05) which peaked at 2026-03-18T08:42Z. This flare could be seen in GOES SUVI 131, along with dimming and field line opening seen in GOES SUVI 195, 284 and STEREO A EUVI 195. The dimming feature appears to propagate towards the Northwest, suggesting possible deflection. | Arrival information: Sharp increase in B_total from already elevated ~20 nT (following the IPS at L1 as detected by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-03-20T01:31Z) to ~36 nT. This arrival signature also includes sudden increase in solar wind speed from 450 to 550 km/s, in ion temperature from 20k to over 800k and in ion density from the already elevated 19 particles/cc to over 55 particles/cc. The shock seems to be followed by a flux rope starting at ~2026-03-21T02:18Z, with smoother rotation of magnetic field components and a drop in ion temperature and density. This arrival signature is associated with the arrival of CME 2026-03-18T09:23Z, simulated with an expected arrival at Missions Near Earth at 2026-03-20T17:24Z (+- 7 hours). Starting around 2026-03-21T11:45Z, there is an observed slow and smooth rise in B_total up to a peak of ~38.97nT at 2026-03-21T15:32Z with rotation in the magnetic field components, B_z largely northward. A further drop here in density alongside minimal change in solar wind speed and temperature indicate a likely merged second structure within this arrival, of which no current CME candidate exists following further analysis. A reverse shock is observed at 2026-03-21T19:10Z returning B_total to elevated background levels, prior to the separate start of coronal hole high speed stream with ID 2026-03-21T19:13:00-HSS-001.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-18T13:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T17:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.48", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Europa Clipper, BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-18T13:48:10Z\n## Message ID: 20260318-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2026-03-18T09:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~731 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 19/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy (glancing blow), Europa Clipper (glancing blow), BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2026-03-19T10:33Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-03-21T07:08Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2026-03-30T20:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-03-23T18:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-03-20T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-03-20T16:52Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttps://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001) is associated with M2.7 flare from Active Region 14392 (S16W05) with ID 2026-03-18T08:26:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-03-18T08:42Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-18T15:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-21T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.62", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 790\nLongitude (deg): 20 W\nLatitude (deg): 7 S\nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: Clear CME associated with M2.8 flare from AR4392. Initial fit using STEREO imagery, with some initial LASCO C2-C3\nSpace weather advisor: Stuart Webster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-18T17:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T15:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.167, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : 97.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.02", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-18T19:52:44Z\n## Message ID: 20260318-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260318-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 36 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2026-03-20T06:49Z and 2026-03-20T23:42Z (average arrival 2026-03-20T14:00Z) for 91% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-03-20T09:41Z and 2026-03-20T21:45Z (average arrival 2026-03-20T15:51Z) for 97% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 79% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-18_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO076/20260318_092300_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO076_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-18_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO076/20260318_092300_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO076_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-18_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO076/20260318_092300_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO076_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-18_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO076/20260318_092300_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO076_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-18_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO076/20260318_092300_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO076_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe CME event with ID 2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact BepiColombo at 2026-03-19T10:33Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-03-21T07:08Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260318-AL-002).\n\nThe CME event with ID 2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001 is associated with M2.7 flare from Active Region 14392 (S16W05) with ID 2026-03-18T08:26:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-03-18T08:42Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-18_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO076/Detailed_results_20260318_092300_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO076.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-18T22:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-21T10:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.44, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.69, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.52", "predictionNote" : "*** CCOR1 ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/03/18 09:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 15:00Z; 20Rsun; Halo Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:00Z; 20Rsun; Halo Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:00\nPOS Midpoint: 15:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:40\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~12.99\nTravel Time: ~12.99 * 5:40 = 73:38\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-03-21T10:58Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 75%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/03/18 22:45Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T01:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.62", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-03-18 15:40\nRadial velocity (km/s): 603.1\nLongitude (deg): 18.1\nLatitude (deg): -8.2\nHalf-angular width (deg): 29.0\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T04:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.65", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: T2026-03-18 13:30UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 793\nLongitude (deg): 20\nLatitude (deg): -9\nHalf-angular width (deg): 28\n\nNotes: westward biased, component only arrival." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T10:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T23:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.40", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 60318\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Mar 2026, 1235UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 18 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 010\nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 024\nPREDICTIONS FOR 20 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 041\n\nCoronal mass ejections: The M2.7 flare (SIDC Flare 7228) was also associated with a large dimming, EUV wave and Type II radio burst. An associated CME was observed in STEREO A COR2 at 09:23 UTC on March 18 and to the west in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 10:36 UTC on March 18, after a data gap.\n\n\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 60319\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Mar 2026, 1236UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 022\nPREDICTIONS FOR 20 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 044\nPREDICTIONS FOR 21 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 037\n\nCoronal mass ejections: The CME reported yesterday, observed in STEREO A\nCOR2 at 09:23 UTC on March 18 and to the west in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from\n09:24 UTC on March 18, is expected to arrive at Earth late on March 20 to\nearly on March 21." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T13:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-21T02:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.25, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.25, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.25", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): 19.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 28\n\ninitial CME speed: 731.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2026-03-21T02:41Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T14:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-21T00:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.08", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-03-18 13:41\n - Time at C2: 2026-03-18 09:23\n - Radial speed: 731.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 28 deg\n - Eruption location: S06W19\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 625.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2026-03-21 00:02 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.67 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T21:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T22:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.1667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.83333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.83", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T21:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T23:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 62.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.83", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-03-17T10:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-03-17T10:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T01:31Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Narrow CME visible to the southeast in STEREO A COR2. The CME is not visible in GOES CCOR-1 or SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery. The source may be an M1.3 flare starting at 2026-03-17T08:55Z seen in GOES-Secondary SUVI 131 imagery. Dimming and moving field lines can be seen in GOES SUVI 195 around S14E10 and in STEREO A EUV 195 near the southeast limb. | Arrival information: Arrival signature primarily characterized by a series of sharp jumps in B_total with the first beginning at 2026-03-20T01:31Z and by an associated increase in solar wind speed. The first jump in B_total is from ~5 nT to ~8 nT with B_total subsequently reaching ~18.5 nT by 2026-03-20T10:09Z. Solar wind speed increases from ~330 km/s to ~450 km/s. The shock signature is also accompanied by an increase in temperature and an increase in density. There is a likely flux rope signature seen starting ~2026-03-20T13:22Z, with smooth rotation of magnetic field components. That flux rope signature is interrupted by a sudden B_total jump indicating the start of the next, separate Interplanetary Shock at 2026-03-20T20:17Z. This arrival signature is likely the combined arrival of four CMEs simulated together expected to give Missions Near Earth a glancing blow at 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours), including CME 2026-03-17T05:08Z, CME 2026-03-17T06:38Z, CME 2026-03-17T08:23Z, and CME 2026-03-17T10:53Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T16:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.75", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45134/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T10:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=287.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T22:31Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_223100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T17:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.12", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45136/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=470.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T12:54Z\n2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z\n2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z\n2026-03-17T10:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=287.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T22:31Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-19T03:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-20T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-18T13:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-21T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "25.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.18", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 341\nLongitude (deg): 8E\nLatitude (deg): 9S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 18\n\nNotes: CME associated with M1.3 from AR3492 at 17/0904 UTC. Not visible on LASCO imagery so used STEREO. \nSpace weather advisor: Stuart Webster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-18T13:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.05", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-18T13:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.05", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-03-17T08:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T01:31Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2. The CME may also faintly be seen to the west in early frames of SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. It is not clearly visible in GOES CCOR-1 or STEREO A COR2 imagery. The potential source is a filament eruption with liftoff seen starting around 2026-03-17T05:15Z in the southeast of STEREO A EUV 304. The filament liftoff is also visible in GOES SUVI 304 imagery, centered around S05W15. | Arrival information: Arrival signature primarily characterized by a series of sharp jumps in B_total with the first beginning at 2026-03-20T01:31Z and by an associated increase in solar wind speed. The first jump in B_total is from ~5 nT to ~8 nT with B_total subsequently reaching ~18.5 nT by 2026-03-20T10:09Z. Solar wind speed increases from ~330 km/s to ~450 km/s. The shock signature is also accompanied by an increase in temperature and an increase in density. There is a likely flux rope signature seen starting ~2026-03-20T13:22Z, with smooth rotation of magnetic field components. That flux rope signature is interrupted by a sudden B_total jump indicating the start of the next, separate Interplanetary Shock at 2026-03-20T20:17Z. This arrival signature is likely the combined arrival of four CMEs simulated together expected to give Missions Near Earth a glancing blow at 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours), including CME 2026-03-17T05:08Z, CME 2026-03-17T06:38Z, CME 2026-03-17T08:23Z, and CME 2026-03-17T10:53Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T13:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.23", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45125/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z\n2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-18T16:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-21T00:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T16:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.37", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45132/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=470.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T12:54Z\n2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z\n2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-19T03:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-20T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T16:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.37", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45132/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=470.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T12:54Z\n2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z\n2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-19T03:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-20T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T16:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.37", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45132/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=470.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T12:54Z\n2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z\n2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-19T03:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-20T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T17:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.12", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45136/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=470.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T12:54Z\n2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z\n2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z\n2026-03-17T10:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=287.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T22:31Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-19T03:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-20T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T17:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.12", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45136/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=470.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T12:54Z\n2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z\n2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z\n2026-03-17T10:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=287.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T22:31Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-19T03:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-20T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T12:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.82", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 60318\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Mar 2026, 1235UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 18 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 010\nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 024\nPREDICTIONS FOR 20 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 041\n\nCoronal mass ejections: The filament eruption reported yesterday,\noriginating from around S05W10, is visible as a faint Coronal Mass Ejection\n(CME) E in STEREO-A COR-2 coronagraph data and may have a glancing blow at\nEarth from late on March 20." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T13:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-21T12:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 19.42, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 19.42, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "35.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.38", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): 14.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 17.0\n\ninitial CME speed: 434.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2026-03-17T15:28Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T15:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T11:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 48.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.14286, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.14286, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "10.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T15:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 48.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "10.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-03-17T06:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T01:31Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Narrow CME seen to the east in STEREO A COR2. Not visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 or GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The potential source is an eruption with dimming and opening field lines starting around 2026-03-17T03:55Z as seen on the SE limb in STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. This is similar to the source eruption associated with CME: 2026-03-17T05:08Z, which overlaps in the field of view of the coronagraph, but there may be two eruptions associated with this event. The eruption can also be seen as dimming in GOES-Secondary SUVI 195 imagery, centered around S20E05. | Arrival information: Arrival signature primarily characterized by a series of sharp jumps in B_total with the first beginning at 2026-03-20T01:31Z and by an associated increase in solar wind speed. The first jump in B_total is from ~5 nT to ~8 nT with B_total subsequently reaching ~18.5 nT by 2026-03-20T10:09Z. Solar wind speed increases from ~330 km/s to ~450 km/s. The shock signature is also accompanied by an increase in temperature and an increase in density. There is a likely flux rope signature seen starting ~2026-03-20T13:22Z, with smooth rotation of magnetic field components. That flux rope signature is interrupted by a sudden B_total jump indicating the start of the next, separate Interplanetary Shock at 2026-03-20T20:17Z. This arrival signature is likely the combined arrival of four CMEs simulated together expected to give Missions Near Earth a glancing blow at 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours), including CME 2026-03-17T05:08Z, CME 2026-03-17T06:38Z, CME 2026-03-17T08:23Z, and CME 2026-03-17T10:53Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T16:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.37", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45132/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=470.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T12:54Z\n2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z\n2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-19T03:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-20T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T13:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T13:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-03-17T05:08Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T01:31Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME faintly seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2. The CME is not clearly visible in GOES CCOR-1 and is obscured by the pylon in SOHO LASCO C3. The potential source is a filament eruption with brightening starting at 2026-03-17T02:41Z from AR 14392 (approximately S15E10). The eruption is also visible near the SE limb from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 304 starting at 2026-03-17T03:45Z. | Arrival information: Arrival signature primarily characterized by a series of sharp jumps in B_total with the first beginning at 2026-03-20T01:31Z and by an associated increase in solar wind speed. The first jump in B_total is from ~5 nT to ~8 nT with B_total subsequently reaching ~18.5 nT by 2026-03-20T10:09Z. Solar wind speed increases from ~330 km/s to ~450 km/s. The shock signature is also accompanied by an increase in temperature and an increase in density. There is a likely flux rope signature seen starting ~2026-03-20T13:22Z, with smooth rotation of magnetic field components. That flux rope signature is interrupted by a sudden B_total jump indicating the start of the next, separate Interplanetary Shock at 2026-03-20T20:17Z. This arrival signature is likely the combined arrival of four CMEs simulated together expected to give Missions Near Earth a glancing blow at 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours), including CME 2026-03-17T05:08Z, CME 2026-03-17T06:38Z, CME 2026-03-17T08:23Z, and CME 2026-03-17T10:53Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T13:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.23", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45125/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z\n2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-18T16:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-21T00:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T16:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.37", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45132/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=470.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T12:54Z\n2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z\n2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-19T03:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-20T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T16:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.37", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45132/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=470.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T12:54Z\n2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z\n2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-19T03:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-20T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-17T17:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.12", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45136/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=470.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T12:54Z\n2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z\n2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z\n2026-03-17T10:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=287.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T22:31Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-19T03:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-20T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-18T13:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.18", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-03-17 03:04\nRadial velocity (km/s): 608\nLongitude (deg): 7 W\nLatitude (deg): 8 S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 10\n\nNotes: \nFaint CME associated with filament eruption from south centre disc at 17/0304 UTC. Cant see on LASCO so fit primarily from STEREO. \nSpace weather advisor: Stuart Webster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T13:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T07:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.2, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.2, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-03-19T13:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-03-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-02-16T14:08:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-02-16T14:08Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-02-20T22:35Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2026-02-16T14:08Z. This CME is also visible as a very faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2 following earlier, faster CME: 2026-02-16T13:23Z. The source of this CME is possibly related to the same eruption that resulted in CME: 2026-02-16T13:23Z. The main eruption is best seen in SDO AIA 171 and SDO AIA 304 starting around 2026-02-16T12:18Z spanning S30E15 to S10W05. There are a couple of smaller portions of the eruption that could be responsible for this CME. The first is an area of dimming that is deflected slightly to the north best seen in SDO AIA 193. The second is an area of dimming south of AR 14373 that follows the main eruption. It is also best seen in SDO AIA 193. In real time, the original analysis of this CME was complicated by gaps in the SOHO and STEREO A downlink schedules. ARRIVAL: A possible glancing blow from this CME could be indicated in the solar wind at L1 by a weak/unclear ICME arrival signature characterized by an enhancement in magnetic field ~2026-02-20T22:35Z, with an increase of Btotal from 7nT to 15nT, and increases in solar wind speed (from approximately 460 km/s 520 km/s), followed by a drop in temperature and density. This arrival signature is soon followed by an interplanetary shock seen at 2026-02-21T14:26Z which is likely associated with a coronal hole high speed stream.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-16T20:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-19T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "97.72", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/44703/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-02-16T14:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=455.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2026-02-16T21:46Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-02-19T11:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-02-17T13:21Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-17T14:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-19T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.90", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-17T14:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-19T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.90", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-02-02T00:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-02-04T14:20Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Complex CME consisting of multiple overlapping fronts the first of which is first seen to the NE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-02-02T00:48Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The start of this event is covered in STEREO A COR2 by a data gap which began at 2026-02-01T14:53Z and ended at 2026-02-02T03:23Z but after the data gap at least one lobe of this CME is seen to the ENE in STEREO A COR2 in multiple timestamps. The source of this event is an X8.1 flare from Active Region 14366 (N13E35) that peaked at 2026-02-01T23:57Z and possibly also the following X2.8 flare from the same AR peaking at 2026-02-02T00:36Z. The flares are visible in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 131. Two bouts of filament ejecta are also seen in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304 in association with these flares, the earlier ejecta more northwardly directed and seemingly deflecting towards the west, and the ejecta after the second flare which is not as northward as the initial one. Arrival at L1: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 10nT at 2026-02-04T14:20Z to 22nT at 2026-02-04T14:24Z. Solar wind speeds increase from ~300 km/s at 2026-02-04T14:20Z to 400 km/s at 2026-02-04T14:25Z. A subsequent increase in temperature is observed from 36,000 K to 212,000 K, with an increase in density also observed around this time from 1 p/cc to 13 p/cc.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-02T03:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-05T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "32.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.55", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/44373/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-35.0, Lat.=29.0, Speed=267.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2026-02-02T12:59Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-02-05T23:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-02-05T05:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-02T08:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-05T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.42", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2026 Feb 02 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at very high levels. Region 4366 (N14E28,\nEkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to evolve in its growth phase as it\nincreased in size, gained new spots and maintained a few spots of\nopposite polarity inside maturing asymmetric penumbra. AR 4366 produced\nnineteen M-class flares and four X-class flares during the reporting\nperiod. The most notable of the X-class events were an X8.1 flare at\n01/2357 UTC, an X2.8 flare at 02/0036 UTC and an X1.6 flare at 02/0814\nUTC. Additionally new spots were noted near S21E77, but remain\nunnumbered at this time due to classification uncertainty caused by limb\nforeshortening.\n\nA complex eruption resulting in possibly three CMEs was associated with\nthe X8.1 and X2.8 event. The first CME front became visible in LASCO C2\ncoronagraph imagery at approximately 02/0012 UTC followed by another at\n02/0048 and the third at perhaps 02/0126 UTC, with the latter being\ndifficult to discern due to degraded imagery. A STEREO-A COR2 gap was\nalso occuring during this time, further compounding the uncertaintly of\nanlaysis. Initial modeling efforts of this event returned with possible\nglancing blows at Earth beginning to arrive by late on 05 May. We await\nfurther adequate coronagraph imagery to analyze the aformentioned later\nevents...." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-02T12:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-05T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.93", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-02T14:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-05T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.92", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo CME was observed at 00:48 UTC on February 2 by LASCO C2, associated with the X8.1 flare peaking at 23:57 UTC on February 1, and a large EUV wave. The CME has an angular width of about 150 degrees, with an Earth directed component. A preliminary speed derived from the available data is around 700 km/s, giving an expected arrival time on the second half of February 4 (this will be updated when more data becomes available and EUHFORIA simulations results are obtained).\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n\n------\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 60202\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Feb 2026, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 02 Feb 2026 10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 03 Feb 2026 10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 04 Feb 2026 10CM FLUX: 166 / AP: 035\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were\nidentified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was\nvery high over the past 24 hours, with 5 X-class flares and 16 M-class\nflares identified. They originated from SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active\nRegion 4366), currently located at N13E34. It has a Beta-Gamma-Delta\nmagnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. The first\nX-class flare was an X1.0 one (SIDC Flare 6796) peaking on February 01 at\n12:33 UTC. The second one and largest, was an X8.1 one (SIDC Flare 6808),\npeaked on February 01 at 23:57 UTC, two more followed shortly after (X1.5\nat 00:22 UTC and X2.8 at 00:36 UTC, February 2). The last X-class flare\noccurred at 08:14 UTC on February 2, with a peak at X1.6. Solar flaring\nactivity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares\nvery likely and more X-class flares possible.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A partial halo CME was observed at 00:48 UTC on\nFebruary 2 by LASCO C2, directed to the northeast, associated with the X8.1\nflare peaking at 23:57 UTC on February 1, and a large EUV wave. The CME has\nan angular width of about 150 degrees, with an Earth directed component. A\npreliminary speed derived from the available data is around 700 km/s,\ngiving an expected arrival time on the second half of February 4 (this will\nbe updated when more data becomes available and EUHFORIA simulations\nresults are obtained). There is still no coronagraph data corresponding to\nthe last X-flare, so another associated CME cannot be discarded." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-02T14:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-04T20:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.83", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-02 07:20\n - Time at C2: 2026-02-02 00:48\n - Radial speed: 587.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 37 deg\n - Eruption location: N11E14\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 582.10 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2026-02-04 20:31 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.72 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-02T14:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-04T21:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.50", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/44388/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-14.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=587.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2026-02-02T07:20Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-02-04T21:32Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =25.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-02-03T17:23Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-02-05T06:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-02-05T10:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260202_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-02T23:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-05T01:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.15, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.267, "confidenceInPercentage" : 86.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.48", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-03T02:10:09Z\n## Message ID: 20260203-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260202-AL-012). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 28 ensemble members (see notes section), 25 (89%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-02-04T19:00Z and 2026-02-05T14:25Z (average arrival 2026-02-05T01:09Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 86% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-02_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052/20260202_004800_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-02_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052/20260202_004800_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-02_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052/20260202_004800_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052_Earth_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001) was also predicted to impact Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-03T17:23Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-02-05T06:00Z (glancing blow), and STEREO A at 2026-02-05T10:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260202-AL-012).\n\nThis CME event (2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001) is associated with the X8.1 flare from AR 14366 (N13E35) with ID 2026-02-01T23:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-02-01T23:57Z (see notifications 20260202-AL-001, 20260202-AL-002) and possibly the X2.8 flare from AR 14366 (N13E35) with ID 2026-02-02T00:31:00-FLR-001 (see notifications 20260202-AL-003, 20260202-AL-004).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M SWAO is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-02_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052/Detailed_results_20260202_004800_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-03T04:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-05T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.00", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 10:01\nRadial velocity (km/s): 409\nLongitude (deg): -14\nLatitude (deg): 21\nHalf-angular width (deg): 24\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-03T13:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-05T06:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 62.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.71429, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.57143, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.38", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-03T13:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-05T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.38", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-02-03T13:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-02-04T20:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.25, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.99, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.38", "predictionNote" : "*** LASCO ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/02/02 00:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 09:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 12:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:30\nPOS Midpoint: 10:45Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:25\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.51\nTravel Time: ~6.51 * 10:25 = 67:51\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-02-04T20:11Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/02/03 13:54Z" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-01-18T18:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-01-19T18:55Z", "maxKP" : 8.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Halo CME first seen to the East by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2026-01-18T18:09Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 as a halo in later frames. This CME was initially covered by a routine scheduled downlink data gap in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 which began at 2026-01-18T18:00Z but LASCO data became fully available later. The source of this CME is a long duration X1.9 flare from Active Region 14341 (S15E20), which peaked at 2026-01-18T18:09Z, with some possible contribution from Active Region 14345 (S16E27). This flare is visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131 and the associated eruption is seen as a wide region of dimming and field line opening in SDO AIA 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284, as well as very high and large area post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94, 304 and 193. Ejecta is seen in SDO AIA 193 and in STEREO A EUV 304 imagery (southwardly directed off the SE limb as seen from STEREO A). STEREO A 195 also sees it as a large opening of field lines close to the limb, around the equator. Arrival at L1: Characterized by a sharp amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from ~6nT at 2026-01-19T18:55Z to ~86nT at 2026-01-19T18:59Z. The solar wind data is likely contaminated due to a known issue with the ACE spacecraft during solar energetic particle events, however solar wind data returns around 2026-01-19T21:18Z measuring ~1000 km/s. Density increased from ~3 p/cc at 2026-01-19T18:55Z to 29 p/cc at 2026-01-19T19:02Z. Temperature observed an increase from ~65,000 K at 2026-01-19T21:15Z to ~900,000 K at 2026-01-19T21:23Z. A large southern coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on 2026-01-15 was located to the south and west of the eruptive source for CME: 2026-01-18T18:09Z (S15E20), and while no distinct coronal high speed stream signature was identified within this arrival signature the location and size of the coronal hole may likely have influenced this CME as it traveled to and arrived at L1.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-18T21:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-20T02:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.27", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-18T21:39:21Z\n## Message ID: 20260118-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES. \n\nStart time of the event: 2026-01-18T18:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1431 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -27/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno, Solar Orbiter, and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2026-01-29T16:01Z, Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-19T18:15Z, and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-20T17:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-01-20T02:18Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 8-8 (severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.9 flare from Active Region 14341 (S15E20) with ID 2026-01-18T17:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-18T18:09Z (see notification 20260118-AL-004).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-18T21:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-19T22:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.73, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.44, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.12", "predictionNote" : "*** CCOR1 ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/01/18 17:55Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 19:50Z; 20.0Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 20:40Z; 20.0Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:50\nPOS Midpoint: 20:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 2:20\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~12.27\nTravel Time: ~12.27 * 2:20 = 28:37\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-19T22:32Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 75%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/01/18 21:20Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-18T21:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-19T17:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.48, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.22, "confidenceInPercentage" : 33.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.12", "predictionNote" : "*** CCOR1 ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/01/18 17:55Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 19:50Z; 20.0Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 20:40Z; 20.0Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:50\nPOS Midpoint: 20:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 2:20\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.14\nTravel Time: ~10.14 * 2:20 = 23:40\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-19T17:35Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 75%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/01/18 21:23Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-18T23:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-19T19:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.08", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1650.0 km/sec at 21.5Rs\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1736.07\nAcceleration: -6.60942\nDuration in seconds: 92646.59\nDuration in days: 1.0722985\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -6.61 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 1123.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/01/2026 Time: 19:53 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T00:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-19T20:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.99, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.69, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.60", "predictionNote" : "*** LASCO ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/01/18 17:55Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 21:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 22:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:20\nPOS Midpoint: 21:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 3:45\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.22\nTravel Time: ~7.22 * 3:45 = 27:04\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-19T20:59Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/01/19 00:15Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T00:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-19T16:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.13, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 2.83, "confidenceInPercentage" : 33.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.60", "predictionNote" : "*** LASCO ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/01/18 17:55Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 21:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 22:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:20\nPOS Midpoint: 21:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 3:45\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~5.96\nTravel Time: ~5.96 * 3:45 = 22:22\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-19T16:17Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/01/19 00:17Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T02:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-19T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.55", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T02:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-20T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.10", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-01-18 20:59\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1294.5\nLongitude (deg): -20.8\nLatitude (deg): -1.3\nHalf-angular width (deg): 38.5\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T06:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-20T01:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 9.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.82", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/44043/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=1473.0, HalfAngle=46.0, Time21.5=2026-01-18T20:17Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-20T01:22Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =9.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.5\n(kp)90=9\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-19T17:18Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-20T13:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-21T04:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T06:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-20T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.33", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-01-18T20:40Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1400\nLongitude (deg): E20\nLatitude (deg): S04\nHalf-angular width (deg): 40\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Dean Hall" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T08:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-20T15:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "10.33", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-18 20:17\n - Time at C2: 2026-01-18 18:09\n - Radial speed: 1473.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 46 deg\n - Eruption location: S06E22\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 847.90 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2026-01-20 15:31 (i.e. predicted transit time: 45.37 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T09:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-20T02:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "9.45", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\n\nPrediction Method: ELEvo \nPredicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-20T02:46Z (+/- 5.3 h) \nPredicted Arrival Speed: 936 +/- 235 km/s \n \nCME input parameters: \n\nApex direction (deg): -12.0 longitude, -6.0 latitude \nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 \nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 49.5 \n\ninitial CME speed: 1646.5 (+/- 50) km/s \ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun \ninitial time: 2026-01-18T20:06Z\n\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s \ntime step: 10 min \nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T10:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-20T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "8.07", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2026 Jan 19 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels (R3-Strong) following an X1.9/3b\nflare that peaked at 18/1809 UTC from Region 4341 (S11E24,\nDkc/beta-gamma). Associated with this flare were Type II (est. speed 693\nkm/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, along with an F10.7 radio burst (3,200\nsfu) with a Castelli-U signature. In addition, several small filaments\nnear Region 4341 were observed erupting/disappearing simultaneously as\nthe flare erupted.\n\nAn associated full halo CME was first noted in GOES CCOR-1 imagery at\n~18/1830 UTC. Forecasters await additional coronagraph imagery in order\nto conduct their analysis to determine arrival time and potential\nimpacts at Earth.\n\nRegion 4341 also added a C7.1/Sf flare at 18/0620 UTC, as well as a few\nlow-level C-class flares during the period. A weak delta configuration\nwas noted in the intermediate spots area, despite overall decay\noccurring. Region 4343 (S11W35, Dao/beta) also exhibited overall decay,\nas did Region 4346 (S14E34, Axx/alpha). Regions 4342 (N16E22, Dac/beta),\n4344 (N18E11, Dao/beta), 4345 (S16E24, Cso/beta), and newly numbered\n4348 (S19W02, Cao/beta) all observed growth throughout the period.\nRegion 4347 (N10E47, Hsx/alpha) remained unchanged.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1/R2,\nMinor/Moderate), with a slight chance for additional X-class flares\n(R3-Strong) through 21 Jan primarily due to the magnetic structure and\nrecent history of Region 4341.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak\nflux of 4,618 pfu at 18/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux\nreached S1 (Minor) storm levels at 18/2255 UTC following the X1.9 flare\nmentioned above.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels\nthrough 21 Jan under sustained positive polarity CH influences. The\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at S1 (Minor)\nstorm levels through at least midday on 19 Jan.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters reflected positive polarity CH influences. Total\nmagnetic field strength averaged near 7 nT, while the Bz component\ntrended towards a negative position, seeing maximum southward\ndeflections reaching -8 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from\nover 700 km/s to end the period just under 500 km/s. Phi angle was\npredominantly oriented in a positive solar sector.\n\n.Forecast...\nEnhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 20 Jan as\ninfluence from a recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole will likely\ncontinue over the next three days. Additional enhancements are\nanticipated with the arrival of the halo CME, likely sometime on 19-20\nJan. Adjustments will be made to the forecast following the outcome of\nthe modeling and analysis of the CME.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nGeomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nUnsettled to active levels are expected on 19-20 Jan, decreasing to\nmostly unsettled levels on 21 Jan, as positive polarity CH effects\ncontinue. Pending the outcome of the CME analysis, higher storm levels\nare possible as early as the end of the day on 19 Jan.\n\n----\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2026 Jan 19 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels (R3-Strong) following a long-duration\nX1.9/3b flare that peaked at 18/1809 UTC from Region 4341 (S11E11,\nDkc/beta-gamma). Associated with this flare were Type II (est. speed 693\nkm/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, along with an F10.7 radio burst (3,200\nsfu) and a Castelli-U radio signature. In addition, several small\nfilaments near Region 4341 were observed erupting/disappearing\nsimultaneously during the event.\n\nAn associated full halo CME was first noted in GOES CCOR-1 imagery at\n~18/1830 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested arrival of\nthe CME at Earth early on 20 Jan. No other potentially Earth-directed\nCMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1/R2,\nMinor/Moderate), with a slight chance for additional X-class flares\n(R3-Strong) through 21 Jan primarily due to the magnetic structure and\nrecent history of Region 4341.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak\nflux of 4,618 pfu at 18/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux\nsteadily increased through the period. It reached S3 (Strong) storm\nlevels at 19/1040 UTC due to activity associated with the the X1.9 flare\nmentioned above.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels\nthrough 19 Jan. A decreased to moderate levels is likely over 20-21 Jan\ndue to activity anticipated with the arrival of the CME associated with\nthe X1.9 flare. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to\nremain well above warning threshold (>10 MeV proton flux above 10 pfu)\nstorm levels through at least 20 Jan. Peak flux is expected to be\nobserved around the time of arrival of the CME early on 20 Jan.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters reflected positive polarity CH influences. Total\nmagnetic field strength was between 7-9 nT, while the Bz component\nreached as far south as -8 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily declined\nthrough the period, with an abrupt drop observed after 19/0920 UTC,\nlikely due the proton event compromising the sensor. Phi angle\nwas oriented in the positive solar sector.\n\n.Forecast...\nEnhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 19 Jan\ndue to influence from the recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole.\nAdditional enhancements are anticipated with the arrival of the halo CME\nassociated with the X1.9 flare, likely sometime early on 20 Jan.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nGeomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is likely to continue as quiet to active levels on\n19 Jan. Very early on 20 Jan, the arrival of the CME associated with the\nX1.9 flare is anticipated. Geomagnetic conditions are likely to increase\nto the G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) level after arrival. G1 (Minor) storm\nconditions are likely over 21 Jan as CME effects wane and influence from\nthe positive polarity CH HSS resumes.\n\n---\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2026 Jan 19 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 19-Jan 21 2026 is 8.00 (NOAA Scale\nG4).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 19-Jan 21 2026\n\n Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21\n00-03UT 3.33 5.00 (G1) 4.33 \n03-06UT 1.67 5.67 (G2) 4.67 (G1)\n06-09UT 0.67 8.00 (G4) 4.00 \n09-12UT 1.00 5.67 (G2) 3.00 \n12-15UT 3.33 6.67 (G3) 2.33 \n15-18UT 3.33 6.00 (G2) 2.67 \n18-21UT 3.00 5.33 (G1) 2.00 \n21-00UT 4.33 5.00 (G1) 3.00 \n\nRationale: G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) geomagnetic storms are likely on early\non 20 Jan due to the anticipated arrival of a halo CME that left the Sun\non 18 Jan." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T11:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-20T01:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 1.71, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 1.95, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "7.42", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-19T17:22:57Z\n## Message ID: 20260119-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20260118-AL-005, 20260119-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-01-20T00:07Z and 2026-01-20T03:47Z (average arrival 2026-01-20T01:50Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 8-8 range (severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-18_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA093/20260118_180900_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA093_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-18_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA093/20260118_180900_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA093_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-18_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA093/20260118_180900_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA093_Earth_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe CME event with ID 2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact Juno at 2026-01-29T09:14Z, Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-19T17:18Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-20T13:00Z (glancing blow), and STEREO A at 2026-01-21T04:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) (see notifications 20260118-AL-005, 20260119-AL-001).\n\nThis CME event (2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.9 flare from Active Region 14341 (S15E20) with ID 2026-01-18T17:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-18T18:09Z (see notification 20260118-AL-004). It is also associated with SEP at SOHO: COSTEP 15.8-39.8 MeV with ID 2026-01-18T22:33:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20260118-AL-006), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2026-01-18T22:55:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20260118-AL-007), SEP at SOHO: COSTEP 28.2-50.1 MeV with ID 2026-01-19T02:57:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20260119-AL-002), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2026-01-19T10:58:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20260119-AL-003).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-18_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA093/Detailed_results_20260118_180900_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA093.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T14:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-20T07:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "4.22", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 60119\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jan 2026, 1300UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 022\nPREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 057\nPREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 017\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the\npast 24 hours, with one X-class flare and two M-class flares observed. The\nlargest event was an X1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 6678), peaking on 2026 Jan 18\nat 18:09 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 740 (NOAA AR 4341). Nearly\nsimultaneously, a Type II radio emission began at 2026 Jan 18 17:59 UTC,\nindicating shock formation and supporting the presence of an associated\ncoronal mass ejection (CME)...\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME; angular\nwidth about 360 degrees) was detected in SOHO/LASCO C2 data on 2026 Jan 18\nat 18:12 UTC. It is associated with the X1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 6678),\npeaking on 2026 Jan 18 at 18:09 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 740\n(NOAA AR 4341). Given the source location and the close association with\nthe flare and the Type II emission, the CME is considered Earth-directed.\nThe plane-of-sky speed is estimated at 1000 to 1500 km/s with an arrival\nexpected later today or tomorrow. A more precise arrival-time estimate is\ncurrently being evaluated.\n\nCoronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 146 (a large trans equatorial coronal hole\nwith a positive polarity) continues it's crossing of the central meridian.\n\nSolar wind: Over the past 24 hours, Earth remained under a high-speed\nstream linked to SIDC Coronal Hole 146, a large trans-equatorial coronal\nhole with positive polarity. Solar wind speeds reached about 770 km/s but\nshowed a gradual decay, trending toward roughly 500 km/s to 600 km/s. The\ninterplanetary magnetic field (IMF) stayed moderately enhanced, with the\ntotla IMF (Bt) below about 9 nT, while IMF southward component (Bz)\nfluctuated between about -6.3 nT and +7.2 nT. The magnetic field\norientation remained well connected to the positive sector, with the phi\nangle staying consistent with the positive polarity source, so solar wind\nspeeds may remain elevated over the next 24 hours. Later today or tomorrow,\na solar wind shock is expected with the arrival of SIDC CME 624, first\ndetected as a full halo in SOHO/LASCO C2 on 2026 Jan 18 at 18:12 UTC and\nassociated with the X1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 6678).\n\nGeomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly active in response to the\nhigh-speed stream, with NOAA Kp reaching 4 and the local K index in Belgium\nalso reaching 4. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue in\nthe coming hours. With the anticipated arrival of the fast CME and its\nassociated shock, a geomagnetic storm is possible, with activity\npotentially rising to about Kp 7 to 8.\n\n-------\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nAn X1.9 long-duration flare was detected in the GOES-19 X-ray flux, peaking on 2026 Jan 18 at 18:09 UTC. The event is associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 740 (NOAA AR 4341; Long -30, Lat -11). Nearly simultaneously, a Type II radio emission was reported beginning at 2026 Jan 18 17:59 UTC, indicating shock formation and supporting the presence of an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME was detected as a full halo in SOHO/LASCO C2 data on 2026 Jan 18 at 18:12 UTC; given its source location and its association with the flare and the Type II emission, the CME is considered likely Earth-directed. The plane-of-sky speed of this CME is estimated at 1000 to 1500 km/s. A proton event is also associated with this activity: the >10 MeV GOES proton flux has been above the 10 pfu threshold since 2026 Jan 18 at 22:50 UTC and is still increasing, with the 100 pfu level exceeded from 2026 Jan 19 at 04:40 UTC. Further M-class flaring can be expected from this region, with a chance !\n of another X-class flare.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T17:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-20T01:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "1.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-19T17:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-20T01:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 69.2222, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.125, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "1.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-01-10T20:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-01-10T20:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-01-13T13:43Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME observed to the S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1 and unseen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 2026-01-10T14:53Z. The source is a complex eruption associated with a C2.1 flare (S16W04) from AR 14339 peaking at 2026-01-10T19:42Z observed in SDO AIA 131, observed as what is likely two bulk fronts as CME: 2026-01-10T20:36Z and CME: 2026-01-10T20:48Z. Following the flare, filament ejecta is observed in SDO AIA 304 traveling S/SW but appearing to mostly fall back onto the disk likely associated with CME: 2026-01-10T20:36Z, and that is followed by dimming starting around 2026-01-10T19:57Z centered around S27W02 observed in SDO AIA 193 likely associated with this CME. Arrival signature: Characterized by a small, gradual enhancement in magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 2nT to 7nt , B_x: approx. 2nT to 5nT , B_y: approx. 1nT to -6nT , B_z: approx. -4nT to 1nT) as well as minor increases in temperature, density and velocity components. Following the minor enhancement, magnetic field components remained smooth and separated, and density slightly decreased, indicating the likely passage of a small flux rope.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-11T01:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-13T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.55", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43895/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-01-10T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-29.0, Speed=809.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2026-01-11T00:29Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-13T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260111_002900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-12T16:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-13T13:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.83", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43923/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-01-10T20:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=7.0, Lat.=-32.0, Speed=1045.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2026-01-10T23:30Z\n2026-01-10T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-29.0, Speed=809.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2026-01-11T00:29Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-13T13:11Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =24.6 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-13T08:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-12T21:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-14T10:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-14T17:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-13T14:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-14T17:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-13T14:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-01-10T20:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-01-10T20:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-01-13T13:43Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Thin jet-like CME observed to the S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1 and unseen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 2026-01-10T14:53Z. The source is a complex eruption associated with a C2.1 flare (S16W04) from AR 14339 peaking at 2026-01-10T19:42Z observed in SDO AIA 131, observed as what is likely two bulk fronts as CME: 2026-01-10T20:36Z and CME: 2026-01-10T20:48Z. Following the flare, filament ejecta is observed in SDO AIA 304 traveling S/SW but appearing to mostly fall back onto the disk likely associated with this CME, and that is followed by dimming starting around 2026-01-10T19:57Z centered around S27W02 observed in SDO AIA 193 likely associated with CME: 2026-01-10T20:48Z. Arrival signature: Characterized by a small, gradual enhancement in magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 2nT to 7nt , B_x: approx. 2nT to 5nT , B_y: approx. 1nT to -6nT , B_z: approx. -4nT to 1nT) as well as minor increases in temperature, density and velocity components. Following the minor enhancement, magnetic field components remained smooth and separated, and density slightly decreased, indicating the likely passage of a small flux rope.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-12T16:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-13T13:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.83", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43923/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-01-10T20:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=7.0, Lat.=-32.0, Speed=1045.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2026-01-10T23:30Z\n2026-01-10T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-29.0, Speed=809.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2026-01-11T00:29Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-13T13:11Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =24.6 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-13T08:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-12T21:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-14T10:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-14T17:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-13T13:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-14T17:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-13T13:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-01-08T17:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T19:36Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright partial halo CME to the S and SE in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1 coronagraphs, fully covered by the daily data gap in STEREO A COR2. Its source is a massive, very complex filament eruption S and E of Active Region 14334 (S19E03), potentially involving two erupting filaments (one directly south of this active region and another more to the east. This eruption starts after ~2026-01-08T16Z to the SE of disk center and is associated with the long-duration C5.6 flare in this active region peaking at 2026-01-08T17:30Z. It is seen in SDO AIA 304/193 as bright, extensive post-eruptive arcades, a large-area dimming, faint EUV wave and erupting filaments seen in 304. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): Significant shock signature characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT and then staying negative for four hours. Accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s. There is also a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. After 2026-01-10T23:30Z the signature changes to what is likely an arrival of the flux rope, with smooth rotation of components and Bz turning northward for over four hours. B total increases from 7 to over 15 nT and density drops. It is possible that the initial shock signature incorporates a glancing blow from another CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T00:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T20:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.60", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-09T00:00:43Z\n## Message ID: 20260109-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2026-01-08T17:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~878 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -6/-27 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (minor impact), OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2026-01-22T20:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-10T08:57Z, and its flank will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-10T16:09Z and STEREO A at 2026-01-11T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-01-10T20:04Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.6 flare with ID 2026-01-08T16:18:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14334 (S19E03) which peaked at 2026-01-08T17:30Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T02:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-11T18:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.57, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.14, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.60", "predictionNote" : "*** CCOR1 ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/01/08 16:50Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 21:40Z; 20.0Rsun; SSE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 23:20Z; 20.0Rsun; NNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:40\nPOS Midpoint: 22:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:40\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~13.04\nTravel Time: ~13.04 * 5:40 = 73:52\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-11T18:42Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 75%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/01/09 01:59Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T03:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-11T03:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.43", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-08 20:51\n - Time at C2: 2026-01-08 17:00\n - Radial speed: 878.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: S27E06\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 669.40 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2026-01-11 03:15 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.25 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T10:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T17:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.25", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\n\nPrediction Method: ELEvo \nPredicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T17:37Z (+/- 6.0h) \nPredicted Arrival Speed: 715 ± 106 km/s \n\n \nCME input parameters: \n\nApex direction (deg): -2.0 longitude, -24.0 latitude \nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 \nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 45.0 \n\ninitial CME speed: 967.0 (+/- 50) km/s \ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun \ninitial time: 2026-01-08T20:27Z\n\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s \ntime step: 10 min \nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T10:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-11T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.02", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 60109\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Jan 2026, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 022 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 026 PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 040\n\n...\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A partial halo coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 622) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 17:00 UTC on January 8. The CME is directed primarily toward the southeast from Earth's perspective and is likely associated with a filament eruption in the southeast from SIDC Sunspot Group 722 (NOAA Active Region 4334) and a C5.6 flare (SIDC Flare 6614), peaking at 17:30 UTC on January 8, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 722. The CME may have an Earth-directed component, with a predicted arrival time late on January 10 - early on January 11.\n\n..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T16:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-11T04:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.09, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.26, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.72", "predictionNote" : "*** LASCO ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/01/08 16:50Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 00:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 02:10Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:40\nPOS Midpoint: 01:20Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.04\nTravel Time: ~7.04 * 8:30 = 59:50\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-11T04:40Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/01/09 13:38Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T17:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T21:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.90", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43869/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=-1.0, Speed=872.0, HalfAngle=16.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T19:26Z\n2026-01-08T17:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-17.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=1084.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T19:56Z\n2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-7.0, Lat.=-35.0, Speed=924.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T20:22Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-10T21:19Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =15.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-10T10:52Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-11T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T17:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T21:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.90", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43869/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=-1.0, Speed=872.0, HalfAngle=16.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T19:26Z\n2026-01-08T17:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-17.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=1084.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T19:56Z\n2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-7.0, Lat.=-35.0, Speed=924.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T20:22Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-10T21:19Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =15.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-10T10:52Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-11T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-10T01:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-11T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.35", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 900\nLongitude (deg): 023E\nLatitude (deg): 35S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes: More Earth-ward component of two relatively coincident CMEs. Glancing impact expected\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-10T01:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-11T02:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 53.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.83333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-10T01:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-11T03:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-01-08T15:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T19:36Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[Tentatively closed as arrival] Faint CME seen (mostly in difference imagery) to the E in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1, covered by the data gap in STEREO A. Source: eruption N of AR 14336 (S10E33), seen as dark moving ejecta in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2026-01-08T14:48Z and centered initially ~(N03E30). There could be eastward deflection of this CME because of a small coronal hole just west of its source. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): this CME was possibly swept by the front of the later, more prominent, CME:2026-01-08T17:00Z, which arrived on 2026-01-10T19:36Z, with a significant shock characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT, accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s, a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. The shock is followed after 2026-01-10T23:30Z by a flux rope. It is possible that this complex arrival signature also incorporates a glancing blow from CME: 2026-01-08T15:48Z, although there is no clear indication of it.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T02:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-11T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.73", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43851/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=-1.0, Speed=872.0, HalfAngle=16.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T19:26Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-11T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T17:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T21:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.90", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43869/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=-1.0, Speed=872.0, HalfAngle=16.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T19:26Z\n2026-01-08T17:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-17.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=1084.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T19:56Z\n2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-7.0, Lat.=-35.0, Speed=924.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T20:22Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-10T21:19Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =15.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-10T10:52Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-11T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T18:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-11T03:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T18:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-11T03:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-01-08T05:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T19:36Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This event is more narrow as observed by STEREO A COR2 imagery, while a wider feature is observed in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is an eruption and C4.4 flare from Active Region 14334 (S18E05) starting around 2026-01-08T05:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. Ejecta can be observed deflecting southeast of the eruption site, possibly due to a nearby coronal hole west of AR 14334. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): this CME was likely swept by the front of the later, more prominent, CME:\nCME: 2026-01-08T17:00Z, which arrived on 2026-01-10T19:36Z, with a significant shock characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT, accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s, a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. It is possible that this shock signature incorporates a glancing blow from CME: 2026-01-08T05:53Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-08T13:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T10:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.85", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43823/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-35.0, Speed=1016.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T08:49Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-10T10:15Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =21.2 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-09T23:52Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-10T08:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-11T07:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-08T19:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T09:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 93.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.07", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-09T03:34:46Z\n## Message ID: 20260109-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260108-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 32 ensemble members (see notes section), 30 (93%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-01-10T03:33Z and 2026-01-10T19:04Z (average arrival 2026-01-10T09:55Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 74% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-08_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092/20260108_055300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-08_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092/20260108_055300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-08_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092/20260108_055300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092_Earth_stack.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis CME event with ID 2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-09T23:52Z, Juno at 2026-01-23T00:00Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-10T08:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-01-11T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours), based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260108-AL-001).\n\nThis CME event (2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001) is associated with C4.4 flare from Active Region 14334 (S18E05) with ID 2026-01-08T05:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-08T05:42Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-08_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092/Detailed_results_20260108_055300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T10:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.28", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 60109\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Jan 2026, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 022 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 026 PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 040\n\n...\n\nCoronal mass ejections:[...]\nFurther analysis of the faint coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 620), observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 06:24 UTC on January 8 and directed toward the southeast from Earth’s perspective, indicates that the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, but a glancing blow cannot be excluded late on January 10.\n\n..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T10:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T04:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.20", "predictionNote" : "Prediction Method: ELEvo \nPredicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T17:37Z (+/- 6.0h) \nPredicted Arrival Speed: 733 ± 112 km/s \n\nCME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): -10.0 longitude, -35.0 latitude \nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 \nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35.0 \ninitial CME speed: 1016 (+/- 50) km/s \ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun \ninitial time: 2026-01-08T20:27Z\n\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s \ntime step: 10 min \nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T13:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T10:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 61.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-09T13:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-10T10:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 61.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-01-06T02:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-01-06T02:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-01-08T04:57Z", "maxKP" : 3.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide CME first seen to the East in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-01-06T02:00Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2026-01-05T17:23Z to 2026-01-06T04:23Z. The source of this event is a C2.2 class flare and associated eruption from Active Region 14334 (S15E33) which began at approx. 2026-01-06T00:15Z. This flare is visible in SDO AIA 131, along with dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Field line opening can be seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. Arrival characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 4nT at 2026-01-08T04:57Z to 14nT at 2026-01-08T16:24Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from ~375 km/s at 2026-01-08T04:57Z to ~430 at 17:12Z. Throughout this signature an increase in temperature is observed from ~25,000 K to ~60,000 K, with density increasing from ~4p/cc to ~18 p/cc.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-06T15:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-08T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.90", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43776/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-01-06T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-33.0, Lat.=-11.0, Speed=895.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2026-01-06T05:13Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-08T09:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-08T00:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-07T02:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-09T15:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.04, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.21, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "34.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.37", "predictionNote" : "*** CCOR1 ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/01/06 01:30Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 05:40Z; 20.0Rsun; E Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 08:10Z; 20.0Rsun; W Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:30\nPOS Midpoint: 06:55Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:25\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: -1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~15.82\nTravel Time: ~15.82 * 5:25 = 85:41\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-09T15:11Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 75%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/01/07 00:50Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-07T04:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-08T11:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.95", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-06 05:13\n - Time at C2: 2026-01-06 02:00\n - Radial speed: 895.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 29 deg\n - Eruption location: S11E33\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 674.50 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2026-01-08 11:46 (i.e. predicted transit time: 57.78 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-07T09:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-09T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.42", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 60107\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Jan 2026, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 004\nPREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 011\nPREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 040\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A faint coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 619) was\nobserved in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 02:12 UTC on January 6, directed toward\nthe southeast from Earth’s perspective. The CME is likely associated with a\nC2.1 flare, peaking at 00:21 UTC on January 6, produced by SIDC Sunspot\nGroup 722 (NOAA Active Region 4334) and a small coronal dimming. Analysis\nindicates a possible glancing blow impact at Earth early on January 09." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-07T22:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-08T22:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-07T22:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-08T21:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2026-01-01T19:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2026-01-04T20:41Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first seen to the NNE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-01-01T19:36Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is currently not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap which began at 2026-01-01T04:38Z. The source of this event is a C6.2 flare from AR 14324 (N24E01) seen in SDO AIA 131 peaking at 2026-01-01T17:59Z. A wide region of dimming and field line opening is also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284, followed by post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 131 and 193. | Arrival Information: Characterized by a sharp amplification of magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 5.7nT to 9.5nT , B_x: approx. -2.6nT to -1.8nT , B_y: -4.6nT to -6.6nT , B_z: -1.5nT to -6.2nT) along with increases in temperature (approx. 52kK to 182kK), density (approx. 0.23 p/cc to 2.36 p/cc) and speed (approx. 425km/s to 502km/s). This IPS signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2026-01-01T19:36Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-01T22:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-04T15:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.17", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43722/1\nModel Inputs:\n2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=22.0, Speed=628.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2026-01-02T01:01Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-04T15:17Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =22.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-04T02:20Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-04T09:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-04T18:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-02T01:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-04T21:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 13.68, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.93, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.08", "predictionNote" : "*** CCOR1 ***\nTime of Launch: 2026/01/01 18:50Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 00:50Z; 20.0Rsun; N Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 02:30Z; 20.0Rsun; S Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:40\nPOS Midpoint: 01:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:50\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.91\nTravel Time: ~10.91 * 6:50 = 74:33\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-04T21:23Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 75%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2026/01/02 01:30Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-02T01:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-04T14:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.90", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-02T12:21:11Z\n## Message ID: 20260102-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260101-AL-003). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 21 (87%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-01-04T05:24Z and 2026-01-04T22:27Z (average arrival 2026-01-04T14:09Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 89% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091/20260101_193600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091/20260101_193600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091/20260101_193600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091_Earth_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis CME event with ID 2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact \nSolar Orbiter at 2026-01-04T02:20Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-04T09:00Z, STEREO A at 2026-01-04T18:00Z and Juno at 2026-01-18T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours), based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260101-AL-003).\n\nThis CME event (2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.2 flare from Active Region 14324 (N24E01) with ID 2026-01-01T17:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-01T17:59Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091/Detailed_results_20260101_193600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-02T10:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-05T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.90", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2026 Jan 02 1231 UT\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 60102\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jan 2026, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 166 / AP: 018\nPREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 044\nPREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 012\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the\npast 24 hours. The largest flare was a C6.5 flare (SIDC Flare 6560) peaking\non January 02 at 00:17 UTC, which was produced by newly emerged SIDC\nSunspot Group 751 (NOAA Active Region 4333). This region produced multiple\nC-class flares. There are currently 8 numbered regions on the disk. SIDC\nSunspot Group 744 (NOAA Active Region 4324) produced a long duration C6.2\nflare, peaking on January 01 at 17:59 UTC. This region has decayed over the\nperiod and is now Beta-Delta magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 745\n(NOAA Active Region 4325, Beta-Gamma configuration) is the largest region\non disk and also produced low level C-class flares. SIDC Sunspot Group 735\n(NOAA Active Region 4317) continued to produce some C-class flare from\nbeyond the limb. A returning active region (SIDC Sunspot Group 722) has\nalso rotated onto disk (S16E83). A new region emerged in the north-west\nquadrant and was numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 752. The remaining regions are\nsimple and mostly quiet or in decay. Solar flaring activity is expected to\nbe moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a\nchance for X-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) directed to the\nnorth-east was first seen in LACSCO-C2 data from 18:48 UTC on January 01.\nThis was associated with the C6.2 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 744 (NOAA\nActive Region 4324), with peak time17:59 UTC. This CME is may glancing blow\nat Earth from early on January 05.\n\nSolar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters showed and\nongoing weak high speed stream influence. The solar wind speed ranged\nbetween 450 and 580 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged between 2 and 9\nnT, and Bz had a minimum of -7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi\nangle was in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Disturbed\nsolar wind conditions are expected from early on January 03, due to the\narrival of a CME from December 31.\n\nGeomagnetism: Over the past 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were at\nquiet to unsettled levels globally, with one period of active conditions\n(NOAA Kp 1 to 4), and at quiet to unsettled levels locally (K BEL 1 to 3).\nActive conditions are expected for January 02, with minor to moderate storm\nconditions expected from January 03, due to the possible CME arrival.\n\nProton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10\npfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this\nthreshold level over the next 24 hours.\n\nElectron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured\nby GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, was briefly above the 1000 pfu\nthreshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again\nbriefly exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron\nfluence was at nominal to moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal\nlevels for the next 24 hours.\n\n\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 122, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 01 Jan 2026\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 121\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 169\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 022\nAK WINGST : 011\nESTIMATED AP : 012\nESTIMATED ISN : 119, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES\nNONE\nEND" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-02T17:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-04T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.38", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-01-01T23:43Z \nRadial velocity (km/s): 743\nLongitude (deg): E11\nLatitude (deg): N22\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Dean Hall" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-02T18:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-04T15:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.68", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-02 01:09\n - Time at C2: 2026-01-01 19:36\n - Radial speed: 585.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 43 deg\n - Eruption location: N23E16\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 581.50 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2026-01-04 15:23 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.80 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-02T18:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-04T17:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2026-01-02T18:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-04T15:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-12-28T23:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-12-31T13:20Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first seen to the West by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 202512-28T23:00Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which began at 2025-12-28T17:53Z. The source of this event is an M4.2 flare from N08W28 which peaked at 2025-12-28T22:39Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. A wide region of dimming stretching towards the South and West can be seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211, along with field line opening seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. Possible/likely arrival signature: Potential weak glancing blow CME signature at 2025-12-31T13:20Z characterized by an increase in B_total from ~4nT to ~11nT, separation of magnetic field components, an increase in solar wind speeds from ~400 km/s to ~540 km/s, temporary increases in solar wind temperature and density, followed by drop in density. This feature may be embedded within the start of a weak coronal hole high speed stream.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-29T01:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-31T22:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.42", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43633/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=27.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=521.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2025-12-29T05:34Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-12-31T22:04Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =20.2 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-31T09:35Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-31T11:12Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-31T15:31Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-29T03:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-01T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.52", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: Unknown\nRadial velocity (km/s): 551\nLongitude (deg): 41\nLatitude (deg): 7\nHalf-angular width (deg): 36\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Dec 29 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n...A CME associated with the M4.2 flare from Region 4317 was analyzed and\nindicated a possible indirect impact, arriving late on 31 Dec into early\non 01 Jan. \n\nSolar Wind Forecast...\nNear background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 29-30\nDec. Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by 31 Dec due\nto influence from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS, possibly\ncombined with glancing CME effects from the CME that left the Sun on 29\nDec.\n\nGeospace Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels, with\npossible isolated unsettled periods, on 29-30 Dec. Quiet to unsettled\nconditions are expected, with likely active periods late on 31 Dec due\nto effects from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS combined with\npossible glancing CME effects from the CME that left the Sun on 29 Dec.\n\n\n:Product: Geomagnetic Forecast\n:Issued: 2025 Dec 29 2205 UTC\nNOAA Kp index forecast 01 Jan 00-03UT: 5.00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-29T12:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-01T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.85", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 450\nLongitude (deg): 32 W\nLatitude (deg): 14 N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 40\n\nNotes: Cominbed with coronal hole effects gives a slight risk of G3, G1-G2 more likely. \nSpace weather advisor: SW" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-29T16:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-01T09:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.25, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.26, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.85", "predictionNote" : "*** CCOR1 ***\nTime of Launch: 2025/12/28 22:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 05:00Z; 20.0Rsun; Halo\nPlane of Sky 2: 05:10Z; 20.0Rsun; Halo\nPOS Difference: 00:10\nPOS Midpoint: 05:05Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:25\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~12.91\nTravel Time: ~12.91 * 6:25 = 82:52\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-01T09:32Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 75%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/12/29 16:27Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-29T16:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-01T06:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.34, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.55, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.77", "predictionNote" : "*** LASCO ***\nTime of Launch: 2025/12/28 22:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 09:00Z; 31.5Rsun; Halo\nPlane of Sky 2: 09:30Z; 31.5Rsun; Halo\nPOS Difference: 00:30\nPOS Midpoint: 09:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:35\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.55\nTravel Time: ~7.55 * 10:35 = 79:55\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-01T06:35Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/12/29 16:08Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-29T16:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-31T21:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.633, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.583, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.42", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-29T23:15:04Z\n## Message ID: 20251229-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251229-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2025-12-31T10:38Z and 2025-12-31T16:08Z (average arrival 2025-12-31T13:40Z) for 29% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-12-31T15:40Z and 2026-01-01T01:53Z (average arrival 2025-12-31T21:18Z) for 75% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 61% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe CME with ID (2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Juno at 2026-01-14T10:00Z (minor impact), OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-31T09:35Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-31T11:12Z, and STEREO A at 2025-12-31T15:31Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20251229-AL-001).\n\nThis CME (2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001) is associated with an M4.2 flare from Active Region 14317 (N08W28) with ID 2025-12-28T22:01:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-12-28T22:39Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/Detailed_results_20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-29T17:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-01T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.18", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2025 Dec 29 1240 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 51229\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Dec 2025, 1239UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Dec 2025 10CM FLUX: 195 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Dec 2025 10CM FLUX: 203 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Dec 2025 10CM FLUX: 210 / AP: 038\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 4 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an\nM4.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6518) peaking on December 28 at 22:39 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 735 (NOAA Active Region 4317). SIDC Sunspot Groups 744 and 745 (NOAA Active Regions 4324 and 4325, respectively) are two of the other complex regions on disk (Beta-Gamma) and both also produced low level M-class flares and were growing over the period. SIDC Sunspot Group 740 (NOAA Active Region 4321, magnetic type Beta Delta) was quiet and is now approaching the west solar limb. The remaining regions are simple and mostly quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) directed to the north-west, with a width of approximately 120 degrees and speed of around 450 km/s, was detected in LASCO-C2 data from 23:00 UTC on December 28. This CME (SIDC CME 616) was associated with an M4.2 flare (SIDC Flare\n6518) peaking on December 28 at 22:39 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 735 (NOAA Active Region 4317). This CME is currently being modelled, but initial analysis suggests this would likely have a glancing blow arrival at Earth early on January 01. No other Earth-directed (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.\n\nCoronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 140 (mid-latitude, negative polarity) continues to transit the central meridian since December 28.\n\nSolar wind: Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed decreased from 480 km/s to around\n415 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 3 and 8 nT, and Bz had a minimum of -5nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was mostly in the positive sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. From late on December 30, enhanced solar wind conditions are possible due the CIR and high speed stream arrival associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 140 (negative polarity) which began to cross the central meridian on December 28.\n\nGeomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels globally (NOAA Kp 1 to 3) and locally (K BEL 1 to 3) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.\n\nProton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this threshold level over the next 24 hours.\n\nElectron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, was mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold for past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so.\n\n\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 141, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Dec 2025\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 188\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 019\nAK WINGST : 010\nESTIMATED AP : 009\nESTIMATED ISN : 152, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES\n28 2103 2113 2123 S07E47 M1.3 SF ///4325\n28 2201 2239 2254 N08W31 M4.2 1F 48/4317\n28 2357 0002 0007 ////// M2.2 ///4324\n29 0634 0651 0656 S10E43 M1.0 SF 53/4325\nEND" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-29T17:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-31T21:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.75", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-29 05:34\n - Time at C2: 2025-12-28 23:00\n - Radial speed: 521.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 41 deg\n - Eruption location: N10W27\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 562.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-12-31 21:19 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.33 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-29T22:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-31T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.00", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/0442 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 587\nLongitude (deg): 22W\nLatitude (deg): 9N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes: recurrent coronal hole expected shortly before CME arrival to exacerbate \nKp" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-30T02:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-01T03:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 57.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.61857, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.71429, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-30T02:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-01T04:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-30T02:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2026-01-01T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.47", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-12-29 08:21\nRadial velocity (km/s): 382.6\nLongitude (deg): 38.8\nLatitude (deg): 14.9\nHalf-angular width (deg): 39.0\n\nNotes:" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-12-08T05:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-12-10T20:00Z", "maxKP" : 6.33, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first seen with the bulk to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-12-08T05:12Z. This CME is also seen to the NW in GOES CCOR-1 and to the NNE in STEREO A COR2. It is partially obscured by the pylon in SOHO LASCO C3. This CME is most likely related to an X1.1 flare from AR 14298 that peaked at 2025-12-08T05:01Z. The flare and associated eruption are best seen in GOES SUVI 304. The ejecta from the eruption experiences visible northward deflection. Arrival: Characterized by a sharp enhancement in magnetic field components: B total increases from the already elevated 10nT to over 17nT. There is a clear rotation of all three magnetic field components, with Bz turning negative (reaching -15.9nT) for multiple hours. The B_total reached a maximum of 21.8nT. There is a more minor corresponding increase of solar wind speed (from 400 to 470 km/s) and ion density (from 7 to 20 p/cc) and no clear response in ion temperature component, as seen by ACE, however DSCOVR shows a drop in ion density and temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T13:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-11T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.45", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43342/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=40.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=664.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2025-12-08T10:13Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-12-11T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-10T16:40Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-10T22:07Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-10T22:02Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T17:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-11T03:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.68, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.87", "predictionNote" : "*** CCOR1 ***\nTime of Launch: 2025/12/08 05:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 09:50Z; 20.0Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 11:30Z; 20.0Rsun; SE Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:40\nPOS Midpoint: 10:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:25\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~13.04\nTravel Time: ~13.04 * 5:25 = 70:37\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-12-11T03:52Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 75%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/12/08 13:44Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T17:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-11T05:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 62.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T17:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-11T03:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 62.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T17:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-11T03:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.73, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.55, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.87", "predictionNote" : "*** LASCO ***\nTime of Launch: 2025/12/08 05:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 13:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:30\nPOS Midpoint: 14:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.77\nTravel Time: ~7.77 * 9:00 = 69:54\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-12-11T03:09Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/12/08 17:04Z" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-12-08T01:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-12-10T03:23Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "First visible in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-12-08T01:38Z already well into the FOV of COR2A following a data gap. The source is most likely associated with an M2.4 flare from AR 14299 that peaked at 2025-12-08T00:12Z and the accompanying eruption beginning around 2025-12-08T00:00Z that is best visible in GOES SUVI 304.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T14:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-10T13:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.98", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43343/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=11.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=767.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-12-08T04:41Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-12-10T13:47Z (+- 7 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-10T03:56Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-10T07:36Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T14:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-10T13:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T14:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-10T13:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-12-06T21:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T07:55Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-12-06T20:53Z. The CME is also seen as a full halo in SOHO LASCO C2. The source of this CME is most likely an M8.1 flare from AR 14299 (N23E02) that peaked at 2025-12-06T20:39Z. The eruption signature can be seen across all wavelengths of GOES SUVI imagery and includes dimming, opening field lines, and an EUV wave. The eruption is also visible from the point of view of STEREO A EUV imagery.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-06T23:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T04:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.93", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-06T23:59:20Z\n## Message ID: 20251206-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-12-06T21:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~905 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 3/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-08T17:31Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-08T20:08Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2025-12-08T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-12-09T04:23Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_003800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_003800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_003800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_003800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_003800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_003800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_003800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_003800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_003800_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_003800_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001) is associated with M8.1 flare with ID 2025-12-06T20:29:00-FLR-001 from AR 14299 (N23E02) which peaked at 2025-12-06T20:39Z (see notifications 20251206-AL-002, 20251206-AL-003).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-07T00:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.38", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-07T01:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.25", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 07/0021UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 996\nLongitude (deg): 0E\nLatitude (deg): 9N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 42\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-07T01:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T02:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.33, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.92, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.02", "predictionNote" : "*** CCOR1 ***\nTime of Launch: 2025/12/06 20:55Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 01:00Z; 20.0Rsun; Halo\nPlane of Sky 2: 01:30Z; 20.0Rsun; Halo\nPOS Difference: 00:30\nPOS Midpoint: 01:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:20\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: -2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~12.65\nTravel Time: ~12.65 * 4:20 = 54:50\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-12-09T02:45Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 75%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/12/07 01:52Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-07T10:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.92", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 1043\nLongitude (deg): 8 N\nLatitude (deg): 1 E\nHalf-angular width (deg): 33\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: SW & LG" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-07T18:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T06:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.89, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.31, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.22", "predictionNote" : "*** LASCO ***\nTime of Launch: 2025/12/06 20:55Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 04:15Z; 31.5Rsun; Halo\nPlane of Sky 2: 04:45Z; 31.5Rsun; Halo\nPOS Difference: 00:30\nPOS Midpoint: 04:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:35\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: -2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.55\nTravel Time: ~7.55 * 7:35 = 57:16\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-12-09T06:11Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/12/07 14:36Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-07T19:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T04:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.60", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43323/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=905.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2025-12-07T00:38Z\n2025-12-06T19:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-15.0, Lat.=33.0, Speed=381.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2025-12-07T04:47Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-12-09T04:09Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =27.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.2\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-08T17:21Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-08T19:50Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-09T00:30Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-07T21:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T01:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 15.35, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.01, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.60", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-08T16:30:42Z\n## Message ID: 20251208-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251206-AL-004). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 40 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2025-12-08T18:40Z and 2025-12-09T00:03Z (average arrival 2025-12-08T21:07Z) for 20% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-12-08T18:07Z and 2025-12-09T16:29Z (average arrival 2025-12-09T01:08Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 94% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-8 range (minor to severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe CME event with ID 2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-08T20:08Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-08T17:31Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20251206-AL-004).\n\nThe CME event with ID 2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001 is associated with an M8.1 flare from Active Region 14299 (N23E02) with ID 2025-12-06T20:29:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-12-06T20:39Z (see notifications 20251206-AL-002 and 20251206-AL-003).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/Detailed_results_20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T07:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.43", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2025-12-09T06:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nMax Kp Range: 6-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T18:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T04:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.83333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.16667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T18:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T04:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-12-06T19:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-12-06T19:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T07:55Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first seen to the NNE in SOHO LASCO C2. The CME is also seen in GOES CCOR-1 and STEREO A COR2. This CME is most likely associated with an M1.1 flare from AR 14299 that peaked at 2025-12-06T19:21Z. The flare an accompanying eruption can be seen across GOES wavelengths but is best seen in GOES SUVI 304 and GOES SUVI 131. A nearby filament to the NE of the AR can be seen erupting, best seen in GOES SUVI 195/304. The eruption is also visible from the point of view of STEREO A EUV imagery.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-06T22:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-10T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.75", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43305/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-12-06T19:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-15.0, Lat.=33.0, Speed=381.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2025-12-07T04:47Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-12-10T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-09T23:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-07T16:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.50", "predictionNote" : "Expected arrival time: 2025-12-09T03:00:00Z\n\n Arrival time uncertainty: 12\n\n\n Estimated peak K: 7\n\n Peak K uncertainty: 1\n\n\n Probability of arrival: 90\n\n\n CME start time: 2025-12-06T19:24:00Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-07T19:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T04:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.60", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43323/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=905.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2025-12-07T00:38Z\n2025-12-06T19:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-15.0, Lat.=33.0, Speed=381.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2025-12-07T04:47Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-12-09T04:09Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =27.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.2\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-08T17:21Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-08T19:50Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-09T00:30Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T00:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T13:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.75", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-08T00:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-09T04:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.75", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-12-05T07:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-12-05T07:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-12-07T11:03Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint but clear loop seen in multiple timestamps of STEREO A COR2. There is potentially a very faint NNE front in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-12-05T07:48Z, but the front is not seen in C3 and GOES CCOR-1 (possibly because it is too faint). No clear source has been found in EUV imagery.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-06T00:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-08T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.50", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-06T00:33:13Z\n## Message ID: 20251206-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-12-05T07:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~629 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -14/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-12-05T07:09:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-08T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-12-08T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-05T07:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251205_122800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251205_122800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251205_122800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251205_122800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-06T00:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-08T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-06T00:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-08T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-12-04T07:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-12-04T07:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-12-07T11:03Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright, wide CME observed to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely slow, wide field line movement beginning around 2025-12-04T04:30Z in GOES SUVI 195/284, with brightening in GOES SUVI 171/195, centered around S21E48.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-04T14:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-08T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.85", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43248/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-12-04T07:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=-36.0, Speed=651.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2025-12-04T13:53Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-12-08T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-04T14:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-08T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.27", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43249/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-12-04T03:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-39.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=516.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2025-12-04T10:07Z\n2025-12-04T07:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=-36.0, Speed=651.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2025-12-04T13:53Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-12-08T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-04T16:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-08T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.75", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-12-04T16:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-12-08T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.75", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-14T08:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-14T08:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-16T01:32Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Asymmetric halo seen with bulk to the northwest with a faint halo-shaped shock in SOHO LASCO C2/LASCO C3 with wider bulk seen to the north and northwest in STEREO A COR2A associated with an X4.0-class solar flare from AR14274 (N24W71). The eruption is characterized by brightening seen best in GOES SUVI 131 and as well in GOES SUVI 195 and GOES SUVI 284 imagery with a significant, rapid field line movement and darkening seen off the northwest limb around 2025-11-14T07:45Z. | Arrival Notes: Characterised by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from 550 km/s to initially 650 km/s and eventually (around 2025-11-16T05Z to 700 km/s), likely indicating a shock/sheath. Magnetic field also had two consecutive jumps paralleling the solar wind speed increases: initially from 4n to over 10 nT and then to 15.7 nT by 2025-11-16T05:19Z. Ion temperature has the same increases as the solar wind speed and magnetic field. Bz was mostly positive, but ater 2025-11-16T08Z there were prolonged periods of negative Bz. Flux rope likely starts after 2025-11-16T09:30Z (when there is a drop in temperature, density and solar wind speed and a smoother rotation).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-14T15:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-16T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.33", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42719/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-14T08:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=62.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=1534.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2025-11-14T10:40Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-16T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-14T20:07Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-16T01:12Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-15T20:41Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-15T20:37Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-14T23:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-16T16:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.67, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.12, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.22", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/11/14 08:25Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 16:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:00\nPOS Midpoint: 14:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:05\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: -1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.29\nTravel Time: ~9.29 * 6:05 = 56:29\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-11-16T16:54Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 75%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/11/11 13:58Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-15T01:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-16T13:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.37", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-14 11:11\n - Time at C2: 2025-11-14 08:00\n - Radial speed: 1082.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 54 deg\n - Eruption location: N03W49\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 730.60 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-11-16 13:04 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.07 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-15T12:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-16T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.27", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2025 Nov 15 1301 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph data. It was associated with the X4.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6063) that peaked at 08:30 UTC on 14 Nov 2025 from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274). The plane-of-sky speed in SOHO/LASCO is about 1500 km/s, while STEREO-A indicates about 1300 km/s. A 3D reconstruction gives a true speed of roughly 1650 to 1700 km/s. The apex is slightly offset from the Sun-Earth line, so a direct impact is unlikely, but a flank encounter remains possible. EUHFORIA modeling indicates a glancing blow early on 16 Nov with at most a weak to moderate shock or compression, and geomagnetic activity up to active or minor storm levels depending on the interplanetary magnetic field orientation within the CME.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-17T16:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-16T10:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-39.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-17T16:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-16T11:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-39.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-13T19:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-13T19:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-16T01:32Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Noting that this event is partially obscured by the pylon in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. This event overlaps with preceding CME: 2025-11-13T18:38Z. The source may be related to an eruption centered near S20E55 starting around 2025-11-13T19:40Z seen best in GOES SUVI 304 imagery. However, it is also possible this event is associated with the southeast filament eruption which was associated with CME: 2025-11-13T18:38Z. | Arrival Notes: Characterised by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from 550 km/s to initially 650 km/s and eventually (around 2025-11-16T05Z to 700 km/s), likely indicating a shock/sheath. Magnetic field also had two consecutive jumps paralleling the solar wind speed increases: initially from 4n to over 10 nT and then to 15.7 nT by 2025-11-16T05:19Z. Ion temperature has the same increases as the solar wind speed and magnetic field. Bz was mostly positive, but ater 2025-11-16T08Z there were prolonged periods of negative Bz. Flux rope likely starts after 2025-11-16T09:30Z (when there is a drop in temperature, density and solar wind speed and a smoother rotation).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-14T00:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-16T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.23", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42697/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-13T19:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=494.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2025-11-14T02:21Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-16T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-14T18:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-16T01:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-16T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-0.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-16T01:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-16T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-0.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-11T10:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T18:52Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Large halo CME first seen to the NE by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-11-11T10:23Z, as well as to the NW by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is an X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131. Wide opening field lines and a large EUV wave and instance of dimming is visible in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 and STEREO A EUVI 195, along with post eruptive arcades visible in GOES SUVI 131 and 195. The arrival of this CME was likely observed at L1 by ACE/DSCOVR around 2025-11-12T18:52Z, characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 19nT at 2025-11-12T18:52Z to about 40nT at 2025-11-12T19:00Z. The magnetic field parameters were previously enhanced due to the interplanetary shock starting at 2025-11-11T22:11Z. An increase in solar wind speed from about 580 km/s to 820 km/s was observed starting at about 2025-11-12T19:45Z after a brief period of unreliably low solar wind speed data which had occurred during the initial shock arrival. An increase in temperature was seen starting at 2025-11-12T19:45Z from about 71,000 K to about 764,000 K. A significant increase in temperature was observed starting at 2025-11-12T21:55Z, which may have been erroneous or unreliable data. A corresponding sudden increase in density was observed at 2025-11-12T19:41Z from about 4 p/cc to a peak value of 24 p/cc at 2025-11-12T19:49Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T12:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T12:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.62", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1856.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1947.63\nAcceleration: -8.05985\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 93276.443\nDuration in days: 1.0795885\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -8.06 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 1195.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/11/2025 Time: 12:17 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T14:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.87", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2025 Nov 12 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 is 8.00 (NOAA Scale\nG4).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 12-Nov 14 2025\n\n Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14\n00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 6.67 (G3) 4.67 (G1)\n03-06UT 7.33 (G3) 6.33 (G2) 4.00 \n06-09UT 6.00 (G2) 6.00 (G2) 3.33 \n09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 \n12-15UT 4.33 4.00 3.33 \n15-18UT 8.00 (G4) 3.33 3.00 \n18-21UT 7.67 (G4) 4.33 3.00 \n21-00UT 7.00 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 3.33" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T15:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T20:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.52", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T15:21:49Z\n## Message ID: 20251111-AL-011\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-11-11T10:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1856 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-11T18:21Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-12T13:16Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-12T11:51Z, and STEREO A at 2025-11-12T14:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2025-11-21T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-12T20:16Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 7-8 (strong to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001) is associated with X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) with ID 2025-11-11T09:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-004 and 20251111-AL-006).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T16:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T17:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.67, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.67, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.80", "predictionNote" : "Predicted arrival speed: 1041 (+/- 212) km/s\n\nCME input parameters:\n\nApex direction (deg): 22.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 45.0\n\ninitial CME speed: 1856.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2025-11-11T11:54Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T16:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T14:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.58, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.55, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.75", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/11/11 10:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:20Z; 21.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:00Z; 21.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:40\nPOS Midpoint: 12:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 2:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~11.48\nTravel Time: ~11.48 * 2:30 = 28:43\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-11-12T14:53Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5 / 5/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/11/11 13:55Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T16:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T05:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.78, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 2.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 33.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.75", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/11/11 10:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:20Z; 21.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:00Z; 21.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:40\nPOS Midpoint: 12:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 2:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.58\nTravel Time: ~7.58 * 2:30 = 18:58\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-11-12T05:08Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5 / 5/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/11/11 13:58Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T18:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-13T04:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.53", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-11 11:54\n - Time at C2: 2025-11-11 10:23\n - Radial speed: 1856.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N24W22\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: X5.1 (N23W24). Peak at 2025-11-11 09:49\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 914.12 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-11-13 04:20 (i.e. predicted transit time: 41.95 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T19:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T16:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.95, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.96, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.03", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-12T12:58:28Z\n## Message ID: 20251112-AL-006\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251111-AL-011). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 39 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2025-11-12T07:30Z and 2025-11-12T18:26Z (average arrival 2025-11-12T12:02Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-11-12T11:52Z and 2025-11-12T23:47Z (average arrival 2025-11-12T16:50Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 7-9 range (strong to extreme).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\n\nThe CME event with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact Juno at 2025-11-21T12:00Z (glancing blow), BepiColombo at 2025-11-11T18:21Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-12T13:16Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-12T11:51Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notifications 20251111-AL-010 and 20251111-AL-011).\n\nThis CME event (2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001) is associated with an X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) with ID 2025-11-11T09:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-004 and 20251111-AL-006).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/Detailed_results_20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T20:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-13T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.05", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 51111\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Nov 2025, 1254UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 022 PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 051 PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 007\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours. Eight numbered sunspot groups were on the disk. The largest flare was an X5.1 event that peaked at 10:04 UTC on 11 Nov from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274) at N23 W23. A Type II radio emission was observed around 10:40 UTC, which is associated with the X5.1 flare. Two M-class flares were also produced by this region: an M1.5 at 19:57 UTC on\n10 Nov and an M1.4 at 08:09 UTC on 11 Nov. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a chance for X-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A full halo CME was observed on 10 Nov following the X1.2 flare (SIDC CME 559) from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274).\nThe true radial speed is estimated at about 1300 km/s. The arrival of the associated interplanetary shock at Earth is expected late on 11 Nov to early on 12 Nov. A Type II radio emission alert was observed at 10:40 UTC on 11 Nov. This burst is associated with the X5.1 flare that peaked at\n10:04 UTC from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274). Type II bursts are typically linked to shock-driven eruptions and often indicate an accompanying CME, from this an estimated shock speed of 1350 km/s was given. However, speed estimates from radiospectrography carry methodological uncertainties and should be treated as preliminary. Further analysis is ongoing as additional coronagraph imagery becomes available to refine the true speed and assess any Earth-directed component." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T22:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.00", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time： 2025-11-12T17:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 80%\nMax Kp Range: 7-9" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-12T03:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.17", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s): 2339\nLongitude (deg): 17\nLatitude (deg): 23\nHalf-angular width (deg): 36\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-12T08:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "10.05", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 1550\nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): 50\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-12T09:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "9.35", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 11:55\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1952\nLongitude (deg): 23\nLatitude (deg): 12\nHalf-angular width (deg): 49\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-12T13:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T17:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 81.125, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.875, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.625, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "5.65", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-12T13:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "5.65", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-10T13:08:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-10T13:08Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T18:52Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Seemingly narrow eruption to the N from SOHO LASCO C2/C3 perspective, but appears wider and more to the N/NE in STEREO A COR2's field of view. From STEREO A's perspective, it drifts N as it moves out in the field of view. The source appears to be an eruption associated with filament ejecta visible to the N/NW from AR 14274 around 2025-11-10T12:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 304. | The arrival of this CME was likely observed at L1 by ACE/DSCOVR around 2025-11-12T18:52Z, characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 19nT at 2025-11-12T18:52Z to about 40nT at 2025-11-12T19:00Z. The magnetic field parameters were previously enhanced due to the interplanetary shock starting at 2025-11-11T22:11Z. An increase in solar wind speed from about 580 km/s to 820 km/s was observed starting at about 2025-11-12T19:45Z after a brief period of unreliably low solar wind speed data which had occurred during the initial shock arrival. An increase in temperature was seen starting at 2025-11-12T19:45Z from about 71,000 K to about 764,000 K. A significant increase in temperature was observed starting at 2025-11-12T21:55Z, which may have been erroneous or unreliable data. A corresponding sudden increase in density was observed at 2025-11-12T19:41Z from about 4 p/cc to a peak value of 24 p/cc at 2025-11-12T19:49Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T01:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-13T06:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.03", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T01:50:08Z\n## Message ID: 20251111-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-11-10T13:08Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~630 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 0/23 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-11-10T13:08:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, and Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-11T07:15Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-12T20:35Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-12T18:49Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-13T06:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-10T13:08:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_183500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_183500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_183500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_183500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_183500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_183500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T19:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-13T10:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.65", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-10 18:35\n - Time at C2: 2025-11-10 13:08\n - Radial speed: 630.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 27 deg\n - Eruption location: N23W00\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: C6.0 (N23W18). Peak at 2025-11-10 14:07\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 445.40 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-11-13 10:13 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.10 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T20:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-13T08:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.38", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T20:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-13T08:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.38", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-10T09:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-10T09:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T22:11Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[PRELIMINARY] Halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2, SOHO LASCO C3, and GOES CCOR-1 and wide CME seen predominantly to the northeast in STEREO A COR2A in association with an eruptive X1.2-class solar flare from Active Region 14274 (N25W16). The solar flare is best seen in GOES SUVI 131 and a faint circular EUV wave is seen propagating shortly following the flare in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 angstrom imagers.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-10T16:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T05:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.78", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42595/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-10T09:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=1298.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2025-11-10T11:42Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-12T05:34Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =21.1 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.3\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-10T20:20Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-11T20:07Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-11T17:41Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-11T21:14Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-10T16:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.24, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.22, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.42", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/11/10 09:25Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 13:00Z; 21.5Rsun; N Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:30Z; 21.5Rsun; S Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:30\nPOS Midpoint: 13:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 3:50\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~11.63\nTravel Time: ~11.63 * 3:50 = 44:35\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-11-12T06:00Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/11/10 13:24Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-10T16:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T10:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.40", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-10 11:42\n - Time at C2: 2025-11-10 09:36\n - Radial speed: 1298.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 33 deg\n - Eruption location: N08W19\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 795.40 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-11-12 10:06 (i.e. predicted transit time: 48.52 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-10T16:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T16:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.27", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42597/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=18.0, Speed=734.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2025-11-09T12:12Z\n2025-11-10T09:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=1298.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2025-11-10T11:42Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-11T16:53Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =23.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.5\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-09T23:51Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-11T06:54Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-11T02:50Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-11T21:06Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-10T20:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T02:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.45", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 10/1243UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1141\nLongitude (deg): 14W\nLatitude (deg): 19N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 61\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-10T22:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T23:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.92", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1298.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1374.56\nAcceleration: -4.36866\nDuration in seconds: 136129.92\nDuration in days: 1.5755777\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -4.37 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 779.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/11/2025 Time: 23:24 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T01:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.65", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2025-11-12T06:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nMax Kp Range: 6-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T09:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T02:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.75, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.75, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.93", "predictionNote" : "Predicted Arrival Speed: 823 +/- 138 km/s \n\nCME input parameters:\n\nApex direction (deg): 15.0 longitude, 8.0 latitude \n\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 \n\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 44.5\n\ninitial CME speed: 1247 (+/- 50) km/s \n\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun \n\ninitial time: 2025-11-10T12:03Z\n\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \n\nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s \n\ntime step: 10 min \n\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T18:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "3.27", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 51111\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Nov 2025, 1254UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 11 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 022\nPREDICTIONS FOR 12 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 051\nPREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 007\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A full halo CME was observed on 10 Nov following\nthe X1.2 flare (SIDC CME 559) from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274).\nThe true radial speed is estimated at about 1300 km/s. The arrival of the\nassociated interplanetary shock at Earth is expected late on 11 Nov to\nearly on 12 Nov. \n\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA halo coronal mass ejection was observed yesterday following the X1.2 flare (SIDC CME 559) from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). It has an estimated true speed of about 1300 km/s. The shock arrival at Earth is expected late on 11 November to early on 12 November. The geomagnetic response will depend on the magnetic field orientation within the ejecta and could reach major storm levels (Kp 6 to Kp 7). The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has remained above 10 pfu since 11:30 UTC on 10 November following this X1.2 flare.\n\nFrom the same region, an X5.2 solar flare peaked at 10:04 UTC on 11 November. Further significant flares from this region remain possible.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T22:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T03:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 86.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-0.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T22:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T05:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-0.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-09T07:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T22:11Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[PRELIMINARY] Halo CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-11-09T07:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and in the NE by STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is an X1.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27E03) which peaked at 2025-11-09T07:35Z seen in GOES SUVI 131. Dimming and field line movement associated with this flare seen in GOES SUVI 171, 193 and 284 appears to have a Northwestern trajectory, suggesting the possibility of deflection. This CME has appears to have a very asymmetric morphology from the perspective of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. There does not appear to be a shock feature associated with this event.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-09T12:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T03:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.47", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 51109\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Nov 2025, 1240UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 09 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 171 / AP: 009\nPREDICTIONS FOR 10 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 013\nPREDICTIONS FOR 11 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 167 / AP: 008\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (SIDC CME 598) was\ndetected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 07:24 UTC on November 09. This CME is\nlikely associated with a X1.79 flare (SIDC flare 6002) peaking on November\n09 at 07:30 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active\nRegion 4274). The CME has an estimated speed of 720 km/s and is expected to\narrive at Earth around 03:11 UT on November 12.\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# HALO CME ALERTS from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium), generated by CACTUS #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n\n A halo or partial-halo CME was detected with the following characteristics:\n\n t0 | dt0| pa | da | v | dv | minv| maxv|\n2025-11-09T07:36:07.479 | 3.0 | 336 | 234 | 473 | 112 | 179 | 781\n\n\n t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff\n dt0: duration of liftoff (hours)\n pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees)\n da: angular width of the CME (degrees),\n v: median velocity (km/s)\n dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME\n mindv: lowest velocity detected within the CME\n maxdv: highest velocity detected within the CME\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-09T17:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.87", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-09T17:19:36Z\n## Message ID: 20251109-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-11-09T07:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~734 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 2/18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-09T23:55Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-11T05:26Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-11T02:14Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-11-11T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-11T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27E03) with ID 2025-11-09T07:01:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-09T07:35Z (see notifications 20251109-AL-001, 20251109-AL-002).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-09T17:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T14:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.15, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.30", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/11/09 07:30Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:00Z; 21.5Rsun; N Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:20Z; 21.5Rsun; S Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:20\nPOS Midpoint: 12:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:10\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.68\nTravel Time: ~10.68 * 5:10 = 55:12\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-11-11T14:42Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/11/09 13:39Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-09T19:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T20:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.42, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.42, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.77", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): 2.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 45.0\n\ninitial CME speed: 734.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2025-11-09T12:12Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-09T21:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.18", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 09/1148UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 817\nLongitude (deg): 02E\nLatitude (deg): 21N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 42\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-10T06:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.18", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 870\nLongitude (deg): 002W\nLatitude (deg): 13N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 39\n\nNotes: Halo CME - NE filament eruption analysed as separate CME that misses.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-10T16:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T16:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.27", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42597/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=18.0, Speed=734.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2025-11-09T12:12Z\n2025-11-10T09:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=1298.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2025-11-10T11:42Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-11T16:53Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =23.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.5\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-09T23:51Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-11T06:54Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-11T02:50Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-11T21:06Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251110_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T09:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T18:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 96.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.4, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.4, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-11T09:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T16:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-07T12:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-07T12:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-11T22:11Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[PRELIMINARY] This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely related to an eruption northeast of Active Region 14274 (N35E30) starting around 2025-11-07T12:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 imagery. An EUV wave is observed northeast of the eruption site as seen in GOES SUVI 195 imagery, with a wide opening of field lines observed over the northeast limb in GOES SUVI 195/284 imagery. Post eruptive arcades begin to form around 2025-11-07T14:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 171/195 imagery.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-07T19:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "98.70", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42530/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-07T12:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-34.0, Lat.=39.0, Speed=261.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2025-11-08T03:42Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-12T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-09T17:40Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-08T19:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T07:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.85", "predictionNote" : "Expected arrival time: 2025-11-12T07:12:00Z\n\n Arrival time uncertainty: 12\n\n\n Estimated peak K: 4\n\n Peak K uncertainty: 1\n\n\n Probability of arrival: 70\n\n\n CME start time: 2025-11-07T12:48:00Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-08T21:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T11:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.08", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-08T21:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-12T11:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.08", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-07T07:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-07T07:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-09T18:05Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. While the bulk of this event is directed towards the northeast, a faint halo feature is produced from the shock of this CME. The source is an M1.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27E27) starting around 2025-11-07T07:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. Dimming is observed north of the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195 imagery, with minor field line movement visible over the northeast limb in GOES SUVI 195/284 imagery. This eruption can be observed near the northeast limb in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. The glancing blow arrival of this CME was likely observed at L1 by ACE/DSCOVR around 2025-11-09T18:05Z, characterized by an increase in B-total from 5nT to 7.7nT and a sudden corresponding increase starting at about 2025-11-09T20:00Z in both solar wind speed (about 510 km/s to 590 km/s) and temperature (about 100,000 K to 270,000 K). There was a preceding gradual increase in density from about 2 p/cc to about 9 p/cc, followed by a declining trend starting at about 2025-11-09T19:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-07T14:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-09T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.02", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42521/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-07T07:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=19.0, Speed=617.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2025-11-07T12:50Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-09T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-08T00:27Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-09T13:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-09T10:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251107_125000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-07T15:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-10T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.33", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 51107\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Nov 2025, 1242UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 027\nPREDICTIONS FOR 08 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 178 / AP: 026\nPREDICTIONS FOR 09 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 182 / AP: 010\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (SIDC CME 596)\nwas detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 07:36 UTC on November 07. This\nCME is associated with a M1.76 flare (SIDC flare 5971) peaking on November\n07 at 14:00 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active\nRegion 4274) and a type IV radio burst. Analysis of this CME is ongoing.\n\n-----------------\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (SIDC CME 596) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 07:36 UTC on November 07. This CME is likely associated with a M1.76 flare (SIDC flare 5971) peaking on November 07 at 14:00 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). A preliminary estimate of the CME velocity is around 530 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has remained at background levels.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-07T15:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-10T02:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.14, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.55, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.20", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/11/07 07:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 14:40Z; 28Rsun; N Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 16:00Z; 28Rsun; S Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:20\nPOS Midpoint: 15:20Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:20\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.15\nTravel Time: ~8.15 * 8:20 = 67:55\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-11-10T02:55Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/11/07 15:51Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-07T19:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-10T01:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.77", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-07 12:25\n - Time at C2: 2025-11-07 07:23\n - Radial speed: 636.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 53 deg\n - Eruption location: N09W02\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 596.80 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-11-10 01:17 (i.e. predicted transit time: 65.90 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-08T17:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-09T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.73", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 700\nLongitude (deg): 30\nLatitude (deg): 15\nHalf-angular width (deg): 32 \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Stuart Webster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-08T17:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-09T22:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-08T17:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-10T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-05T22:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-05T22:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T21:54Z", "maxKP" : 6.33, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible as a full halo directed towards the north/northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. This event is observed as a partial halo directed towards the northeast as seen in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M8.6 flare and subsequent eruption from Active Region 14274 (N30E41) starting around 2025-11-05T22:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. Dimming is observed northwest of the eruption site as seen in GOES SUVI 195 imagery, indicating likely northwest deflection of this event. Field line movement is also observed to the northeast as seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 imagery. Additionally, post eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2025-11-05T23:00Z in GOES SUVI 195. An arrival signature which may be associated with this CME is characterized by a small, short-duration increase in B_total from ~9 nT to ~12 nT that was associated with an flip in B_z orientation to predominantly southward, leading to a moderate geomagnetic storm between 2025-11-08T00:00Z and 03:00Z. The flip in B_z was accompanied by a phi angle flip and minor decreases in speed and density.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T01:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T16:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.98", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42465/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-05T22:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-12.0, Lat.=41.0, Speed=1028.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2025-11-06T01:36Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-07T16:22Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =15.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.5\n(kp)90=7\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-06T13:57Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-07T10:17Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-07T08:43Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-07T15:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-08T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251106_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T05:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-08T04:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.87", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-06 01:49\n - Time at C2: 2025-11-05 22:23\n - Radial speed: 1033.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 57 deg\n - Eruption location: N42E10\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 715.90 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-11-08 04:37 (i.e. predicted transit time: 54.23 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T09:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-08T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.13", "predictionNote" : "Enter predicted CME shock arrival time in format: 2025-11-08T01:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nMax Kp Range: 5-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T10:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-08T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.67, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.67, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.90", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Nov 06 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at high levels due to an M8.6/2b flare at 05/2207 UTC\nfrom Region 4274 (N24E33, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with the\nflare were an 180 sfu Ten-flare, type II radio sweep (1,395 km/s), and\nan asymmetric halo CME with the majority of the ejecta off the NNE limb\nas observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 05/0224 UTC.\nPreliminary analysis showed an arrival early to midday on 08 Nov.\n\nRegion 4274 continued to be in a growth phase with the large\nintermediate spots beginning to shear away from the trailing spots.\nMovement along the magnetic deltas within the group will likely result\nin further significant flaring.\n\nA new region rotated around the SE limb and was numbered as 4276\n(S17E74, Dai/beta). Although the group is too close to the limb for\naccurate spot analysis, it was responsible for the X1.1 flare on 04/2201\nUTC and managed to produce an M1.1 flare at 06/0431 UTC recently.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity will remain at moderate to high levels as the regions in\nthe eastern hemisphere persist in their activity. There is a 80% chance\nfor R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) level radio blackouts, and a 35% for R3\n(Strong) levels through 08 Nov.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels\nwith a peak flux of 2,290 pfu observed at 05/1655 UTC.\n\nEnhancement of the greater than 10 MeV electron flux following the X1.8\nat 04/1734 UTC continues, but remains well below the S1 (Minor)\nradiation storming levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to\nmoderate levels through 08 Nov due to the likely arrival of multiple\nCMEs.\n\nWith multiple significant flares occurring from Region 4274 - further\nenhancements in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is possible. Will\nmaintain a 35% chance for S1 (Minor) storming levels through 08 Nov.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters became enhanced after 05/1745 UTC, likely from the\narrival of the partial halo CME first observed at 03/0936 UTC associated\nwith the M5.0 flare at 03/1011 UTC from Region 4274. Total field\ngradually increased to a maximum of 24 nT at 06/0715 UTC while the Bz\ncomponent was mostly southward between 05/1506-06/0520 UTC reaching a\nmaximum of -17 nT. Solar wind speed showed an increase from\napproximately 350 km/s to near 400 km/s after 05/1600 UTC followed by\nanother increase to 550 km/s around 06/0730 UTC. Phi angle was mostly\npositive until 06/0708 UTC when it became variable.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters will remain enhanced due to persistent transient\nactivity along with an incoming CIR preceding a HSS, and three more CMEs\non the way. The most significant disturbance is expected to be the full\nhalo CME associated with the M7.4 at 05/1119 UTC. Calculated velocities\nbetween 1,100 to 1,400 km/s should put the CME arrival time right around\nthe turn of the UTC day on 07 Nov. A sharp rise in density and IMF\ncoupled with rapid rise in solar wind speeds is expected.\n\nFor a visual representation of this interaction, please see the most\nrecent WSA-Enlil model prediction at\nwww.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field increased to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic\nstorm levels after 05/2010 UTC. G3 (Strong) levels occurred at 06/0527\nUTC due to CME effects.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to remain enhanced 06-08 Nov due to\nthe aforementioned solar wind disturbances described in the Solar Wind\nsection. The CME influencing the field is currently, coupled with an\nincoming CIR/HSS, and the arrival of a full halo CME is expected to\nproduce G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming levels on 06-07 Nov with G1\n(Minor) levels on 08 Nov. Watches have been issued for these times with\nmoderate to high confidence in timing, and moderate confidence in\nmagnitude.\n\nDepending on the model output from the most recent CME associated \n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2025 Nov 06 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale\nG3).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale\nG3).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 06-Nov 08 2025\n\n Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08\n00-03UT 5.33 (G1) 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1)\n03-06UT 6.67 (G3) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1)\n06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 5.00 (G1) 4.00 \n09-12UT 3.33 7.33 (G3) 3.67 \n12-15UT 3.33 6.33 (G2) 3.33 \n15-18UT 3.00 4.67 (G1) 3.00 \n18-21UT 5.67 (G2) 3.67 3.00 \n21-00UT 6.67 (G3) 3.33 3.67 \n\nRationale: G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 06-07\nNov, with G1 (Minor) likely on 08 Nov, due to the arrival of multiple\nCMEs coupled with CH HSS effects.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025\n\n Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08\nS1 or greater 35% 35% 35%\n\nRationale: With multiple significant flares occurring from Region 4274 -\nfurther enhancements in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is possible.\nWill maintain a 35% chance for S1 (Minor) storming levels through 08\nNov.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nRadio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24\nhours. The largest was at Nov 05 2025 2207 UTC.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025\n\n Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08\nR1-R2 80% 80% 80%\nR3 or greater 35% 35% 35%\n\nRationale: Solar activity will remain at moderate to high levels as the\nregions in the eastern hemisphere persist in their activity. There is a\n80% chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) level radio blackouts, and a 35%\nfor R3 (Strong) levels through 08 Nov." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T12:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-09T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "31.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.43", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2025 Nov 06 1254 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 51106\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Nov 2025, 1253UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 041 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 013\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a\nM8.6 flare (SIDC Flare 5941) peaking on November 05 at 22:07 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). The second largest flare was an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 5950) peaking on November 06 at\n04:31 UTC and was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 689 (NOAA Active Region 4276). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274) is the largest and most magnetically complex (Beta-Gamma-Delta) region on disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 689 (NOAA Active Region 4276) has rotated over the east limb onto the visible disk. Both these regions produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (SIDC CME 594) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 11:00 UTC on November 05. This CME is likely associated with a M7.4 flare (SIDC 5938) peaking on November\n05 at 11:18 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). This CME has an estimated speed of around 844 km/s. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth at 18:05 on November 07. A second halo CME (SIDC CME 595) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 22:12 UTC on November 05. This CME is likely associated with a M8.6 flare (SIDC Flare\n5941) peaking on November 05 at 22:07 UTC, which was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). This CME has an estimated speed of around 844 km/s. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth at 05:00 UTC on November 09.\n\nSolar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence of an ICME associated with a CME that left the Sun on November 03. The solar wind speed started the reporting period around 350 km/s and gradually started to increase at 06:30 UTC on November 06 to a speed around 549 km/s.\nThe total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 5 to 24 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum of -16 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector.\nIn the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become more disturbed due to the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 116 and the expected and the expected arrival of a CME (SIDC CME 593) that left the Sun on November 04.\n\nGeomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions reached major storm levels (Kp 7-) globally and minor storm level (K BEL 5) locally. Moderate to major storm conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.\n\nProton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux became elevated but has remained below the 10 pfu threshold level and is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours.\n\nElectron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, were below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hour. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.\n\n\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 114, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 05 Nov 2025\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 085\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 147\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 057\nAK WINGST : 027\nESTIMATED AP : 029\nESTIMATED ISN : 078, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES\n05 2152 2207 2216 N28E40 M8.6 2B 89/4274 II/3\n06 0417 0431 0439 ////// M1.1 ///4276\nEND\n\nBT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T13:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-08T15:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.38, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.86, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.15", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/11/05 22:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 01:20Z; 21Rsun; NNE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 04:20Z; 21Rsun; SSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:00\nPOS Midpoint: 02:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: -1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~14.43\nTravel Time: ~14.43 * 4:30 = 64:55\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-11-08T015:55Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/11/06 03:22Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T19:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.48", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-11-06T01:20Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1070\nLongitude (deg): E010\nLatitude (deg): N36\nHalf-angular width (deg): 36\n\nNotes: Moderate confidence, but likely glancing impact with bulk ejecta to north. May combine with other arrivals.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T19:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-08T05:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 71.25, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.445, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.445, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T19:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-08T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 72.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-05T10:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T04:48Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first seen in real time to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-11-05T10:53Z. CME is also seen in GOES CCOR-1 as a halo with the bulk to the E. CME was missed by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in real time due to a scheduled gap between downlink periods. The CME is most likely associated with a long-duration M7.4 class flare from AR 14274 (N24E47) that peaked at 2025-11-05T11:19Z. The flare and associated eruption can be seen across GOES SUVI wavelengths but is best visible in GOES SUVI 304.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-05T16:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T03:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.62", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-05T16:11:48Z\n## Message ID: 20251105-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-11-05T10:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1123 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -37/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-05T23:32Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-06T23:48Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T19:35Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-07T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-07T03:22Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 7-9 (strong to extreme).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_135600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_135600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_135600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_135600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_135600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_135600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_135600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_135600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_135600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.4 flare with ID 2025-11-05T10:36:00-FLR-001 from AR 14274 (N24E47) which peaked at 2025-11-05T11:19Z (see notifications 20251105-AL-003, 20251105-AL-004).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-05T16:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T03:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.90", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42437/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-04T22:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-36.0, Lat.=29.0, Speed=639.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2025-11-05T04:31Z\n2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=1123.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2025-11-05T13:56Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-07T03:17Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =21.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7\n(kp)90=7\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-05T19:08Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-06T23:01Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-06T23:08Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-07T00:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-05T17:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-08T02:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.79, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.77, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.22", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/11/05 11:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 14:00Z; 21Rsun; ENE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 16:20Z; 21Rsun; WSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:20\nPOS Midpoint: 15:10Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:10\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: -1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~15.35\nTravel Time: ~15.35 * 4:10 = 63:59\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-11-08T02:59Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/11/05 15:21Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-05T17:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.97", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-05 13:56\n - Time at C2: 2025-11-05 10:53\n - Radial speed: 1123.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 39 deg\n - Eruption location: N09E37\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 742.90 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-11-07 15:00 (i.e. predicted transit time: 52.13 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-05T19:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T00:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.42", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-06T02:11:43Z\n## Message ID: 20251106-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251105-AL-005). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 25 ensemble members (see notes section), 25 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-11-06T17:52Z and 2025-11-07T03:59Z (average arrival 2025-11-07T00:06Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 7-9 range (strong to extreme).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-05_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086/20251105_130200_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-05_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086/20251105_130200_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-05_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086/20251105_130200_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086_Earth_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis CME event (2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact BepiColombo at 2025-11-05T23:32Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-06T23:48Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T19:35Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-07T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20251105-AL-005).\n\nThis CME event (2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001) is associated with an M7.4 flare from Active Region 14274 (N24E47) with ID 2025-11-05T10:36:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-05T11:19Z (see notifications 20251105-AL-003, 20251105-AL-004).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-05_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086/Detailed_results_20251105_130200_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T01:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.12", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-11-06T14:45\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1000\nLongitude (deg): 27 E\nLatitude (deg): 6 N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 41 \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Stuart Webster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T01:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.90", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2025-11-05T14:01Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1223\nLongitude (deg): -30\nLatitude (deg): 5\nHalf-angular width (deg): 41\n\nNotes: by Soojeong Jang" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T09:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.97", "predictionNote" : "Enter predicted CME shock arrival time in format: 2025-11-07T05:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 80%\nMax Kp Range: 5-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T10:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.67, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.33, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.80", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Nov 06 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at high levels due to an M8.6/2b flare at 05/2207 UTC\nfrom Region 4274 (N24E33, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with the\nflare were an 180 sfu Ten-flare, type II radio sweep (1,395 km/s), and\nan asymmetric halo CME with the majority of the ejecta off the NNE limb\nas observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 05/0224 UTC.\nPreliminary analysis showed an arrival early to midday on 08 Nov.\n\nRegion 4274 continued to be in a growth phase with the large\nintermediate spots beginning to shear away from the trailing spots.\nMovement along the magnetic deltas within the group will likely result\nin further significant flaring.\n\nA new region rotated around the SE limb and was numbered as 4276\n(S17E74, Dai/beta). Although the group is too close to the limb for\naccurate spot analysis, it was responsible for the X1.1 flare on 04/2201\nUTC and managed to produce an M1.1 flare at 06/0431 UTC recently.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity will remain at moderate to high levels as the regions in\nthe eastern hemisphere persist in their activity. There is a 80% chance\nfor R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) level radio blackouts, and a 35% for R3\n(Strong) levels through 08 Nov.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels\nwith a peak flux of 2,290 pfu observed at 05/1655 UTC.\n\nEnhancement of the greater than 10 MeV electron flux following the X1.8\nat 04/1734 UTC continues, but remains well below the S1 (Minor)\nradiation storming levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to\nmoderate levels through 08 Nov due to the likely arrival of multiple\nCMEs.\n\nWith multiple significant flares occurring from Region 4274 - further\nenhancements in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is possible. Will\nmaintain a 35% chance for S1 (Minor) storming levels through 08 Nov.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters became enhanced after 05/1745 UTC, likely from the\narrival of the partial halo CME first observed at 03/0936 UTC associated\nwith the M5.0 flare at 03/1011 UTC from Region 4274. Total field\ngradually increased to a maximum of 24 nT at 06/0715 UTC while the Bz\ncomponent was mostly southward between 05/1506-06/0520 UTC reaching a\nmaximum of -17 nT. Solar wind speed showed an increase from\napproximately 350 km/s to near 400 km/s after 05/1600 UTC followed by\nanother increase to 550 km/s around 06/0730 UTC. Phi angle was mostly\npositive until 06/0708 UTC when it became variable.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters will remain enhanced due to persistent transient\nactivity along with an incoming CIR preceding a HSS, and three more CMEs\non the way. The most significant disturbance is expected to be the full\nhalo CME associated with the M7.4 at 05/1119 UTC. Calculated velocities\nbetween 1,100 to 1,400 km/s should put the CME arrival time right around\nthe turn of the UTC day on 07 Nov. A sharp rise in density and IMF\ncoupled with rapid rise in solar wind speeds is expected.\n\nFor a visual representation of this interaction, please see the most\nrecent WSA-Enlil model prediction at\nwww.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field increased to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic\nstorm levels after 05/2010 UTC. G3 (Strong) levels occurred at 06/0527\nUTC due to CME effects.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to remain enhanced 06-08 Nov due to\nthe aforementioned solar wind disturbances described in the Solar Wind\nsection. The CME influencing the field is currently, coupled with an\nincoming CIR/HSS, and the arrival of a full halo CME is expected to\nproduce G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming levels on 06-07 Nov with G1\n(Minor) levels on 08 Nov. Watches have been issued for these times with\nmoderate to high confidence in timing, and moderate confidence in\nmagnitude.\n\nDepending on the model output from the most recent CME associated with\nthe M8.6, Watches may be upgraded further.\n\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2025 Nov 06 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale\nG3).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale\nG3).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 06-Nov 08 2025\n\n Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08\n00-03UT 5.33 (G1) 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1)\n03-06UT 6.67 (G3) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1)\n06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 5.00 (G1) 4.00 \n09-12UT 3.33 7.33 (G3) 3.67 \n12-15UT 3.33 6.33 (G2) 3.33 \n15-18UT 3.00 4.67 (G1) 3.00 \n18-21UT 5.67 (G2) 3.67 3.00 \n21-00UT 6.67 (G3) 3.33 3.67 \n\nRationale: G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 06-07\nNov, with G1 (Minor) likely on 08 Nov, due to the arrival of multiple\nCMEs coupled with CH HSS effects.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025\n\n Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08\nS1 or greater 35% 35% 35%\n\nRationale: With multiple significant flares occurring from Region 4274 -\nfurther enhancements in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is possible.\nWill maintain a 35% chance for S1 (Minor) storming levels through 08\nNov.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nRadio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24\nhours. The largest was at Nov 05 2025 2207 UTC.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025\n\n Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08\nR1-R2 80% 80% 80%\nR3 or greater 35% 35% 35%\n\nRationale: Solar activity will remain at moderate to high levels as the\nregions in the eastern hemisphere persist in their activity. There is a\n80% chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) level radio blackouts, and a 35%\nfor R3 (Strong) levels through 08 Nov." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T11:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T04:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.17, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.17, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.17", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): -26.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 43.5\n\ninitial CME speed: 1326.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2025-11-05T13:33Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T06:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.80", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1123.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1194.84\nAcceleration: -3.36624\nDuration in seconds: 158070.76\nDuration in days: 1.8295227\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -3.37 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 662.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 07/11/2025 Time: 06:47 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T12:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T18:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.63", "predictionNote" : "Issued: 2025 Nov 06 1254 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 51106\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Nov 2025, 1253UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 041 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 013\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a\nM8.6 flare (SIDC Flare 5941) peaking on November 05 at 22:07 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). The second largest flare was an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 5950) peaking on November 06 at\n04:31 UTC and was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 689 (NOAA Active Region 4276). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274) is the largest and most magnetically complex (Beta-Gamma-Delta) region on disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 689 (NOAA Active Region 4276) has rotated over the east limb onto the visible disk. Both these regions produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (SIDC CME 594) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 11:00 UTC on November 05. This CME is likely associated with a M7.4 flare (SIDC 5938) peaking on November\n05 at 11:18 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). This CME has an estimated speed of around 844 km/s. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth at 18:05 on November 07. A second halo CME (SIDC CME 595) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 22:12 UTC on November 05. This CME is likely associated with a M8.6 flare (SIDC Flare\n5941) peaking on November 05 at 22:07 UTC, which was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). This CME has an estimated speed of around 844 km/s. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth at 05:00 UTC on November 09.\n\nSolar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence of an ICME associated with a CME that left the Sun on November 03. The solar wind speed started the reporting period around 350 km/s and gradually started to increase at 06:30 UTC on November 06 to a speed around 549 km/s.\nThe total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 5 to 24 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum of -16 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector.\nIn the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become more disturbed due to the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 116 and the expected and the expected arrival of a CME (SIDC CME 593) that left the Sun on November 04.\n\nGeomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions reached major storm levels (Kp 7-) globally and minor storm level (K BEL 5) locally. Moderate to major storm conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.\n\nProton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux became elevated but has remained below the 10 pfu threshold level and is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours.\n\nElectron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, were below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hour. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.\n\n\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 114, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 05 Nov 2025\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 085\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 147\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 057\nAK WINGST : 027\nESTIMATED AP : 029\nESTIMATED ISN : 078, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES\n05 2152 2207 2216 N28E40 M8.6 2B 89/4274 II/3\n06 0417 0431 0439 ////// M1.1 ///4276\nEND\n\nBT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T22:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T07:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.08375, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.16625, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T22:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T04:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-04T22:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-04T22:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T04:48Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME observed to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2, with a notably irregular diffuse leading edge. The source is an M1.7 flare from AR 14272 (N25E36) peaking at 2025-11-04T22:44Z observed in GOES SUVI 131. Also observed as field line breaking, dimming, and small post eruptive arcades in GOES SUVI 171/195/284/304 with some loose filament ejecta in GOES SUVI 304.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-05T02:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.00", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42420/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-04T22:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-36.0, Lat.=29.0, Speed=639.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2025-11-05T04:31Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-07T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-05T16:47Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-06T23:00Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-06T21:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-06T23:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-05T08:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T16:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.13", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-05 04:31\n - Time at C2: 2025-11-04 22:53\n - Radial speed: 639.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 39 deg\n - Eruption location: N29E36\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 597.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-11-07 16:40 (i.e. predicted transit time: 65.80 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-05T16:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T03:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.90", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42437/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-04T22:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-36.0, Lat.=29.0, Speed=639.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2025-11-05T04:31Z\n2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=1123.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2025-11-05T13:56Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-07T03:17Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =21.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7\n(kp)90=7\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-05T19:08Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-06T23:01Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-06T23:08Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-07T00:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_043200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-05T17:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T07:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.42", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-05T17:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-07T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.42", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-04T00:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-04T00:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-06T17:49Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 and CCOR-1 and STEREO A COR2. Source is the C8.8 flare from AR 4174 (N24E59) peaking at 2025-11-04T00:16Z and an associated minor eruption with small ejecta seen in STEREO A EUV 304 on/behind the NE limb at 2025-11-04T00:45Z. The glancing blow arrival of this CME was likely observed at L1 by ACE/DSCOVR around 2025-11-06T17:49Z, characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 3nT at 2025-11-06T17:49Z to 12nT at 2025-11-07T21:01Z. A subsequent increase in speed is observed from ~500 km/s at 2025-11-07T17:13Z to ~680 km/s at 2025-11-07T18:47Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-04T12:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-06T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.85", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42374/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-04T00:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-63.0, Lat.=26.0, Speed=945.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2025-11-04T04:26Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-06T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-04T14:31Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-05T12:53Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-06T08:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-06T06:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251104_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-04T13:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-06T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-04T13:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-06T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-11-03T09:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-05T16:50Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Large partial halo CME visible to the E/NE in SOHO LASCO C2 (for a few frames before a data gap), GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.6 class flare from AR 14274 (N25E90) with associated filament ejecta, moving/opening field lines, a rising loop, post-eruptive arcades and possible EUV wave as seen in GOES SUVI wavelengths 195, 284, 131, 304, 171. A separate M5.0 class flare follows the first flare closely which appears to have been the source of the EUV wave and may contribute to the shock structure associated with this CME, especially the SE portion of it. The EUV wave is best seen in GOES SUVI 195 spreading towards the coronal hole visible nearing the central Earth-facing disk.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-03T14:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-05T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.18", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-03T14:39:28Z\n## Message ID: 20251103-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-11-03T09:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1034 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -56/24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-03T22:21Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-04T18:40Z. The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-05T16:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-05T15:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-05T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_130700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_130700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_130700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_130700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_130700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_130700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_130700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001) is associated with the M1.6 flare from AR 14274 (N25E90) with ID 2025-11-03T08:41:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-03T09:25Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-03T14:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-06T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.05", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42340/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-70.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=1124.0, HalfAngle=49.0, Time21.5=2025-11-03T12:51Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-06T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-03T21:55Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-04T16:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-05T22:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-05T20:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-04T00:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-05T15:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.58", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-03 13:07\n - Time at C2: 2025-11-03 09:36\n - Radial speed: 1034.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N24E56\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 716.20 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-11-05 15:48 (i.e. predicted transit time: 54.20 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-04T01:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-05T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.38", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-11-03 12:51\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1353 \nLongitude (deg): -43\nLatitude (deg): 26\nHalf-angular width (deg): 43\n\nNotes: by Soojeong Jang" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T15:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-05T19:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-23.07", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-11-06T15:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-05T18:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-23.07", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-10-30T11:04:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-10-30T11:04Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-11-02T21:13Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Filament eruption from the northeast Earth-facing disk. Largely obscured by far sided events. There is a possible very weak CME arrival at L1 around 2025-11-02T21:13Z, marked by the separation in magnetic field components and rotation of two components, as well as a minor drop in temperature. Btotal increased from ~6nT to ~9nT.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-31T23:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.67", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 830\nLongitude (deg): 41E\nLatitude (deg): 29N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 28\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-31T23:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-31T23:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-11-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-10-23T16:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-10-23T16:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-10-27T13:38Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the east in STEREO A COR2 imagery and may be faintly visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source is speculative but may be related to an eruption from Active Region 14256 (S16W22) starting around 2025-10-23T15:45Z as seen in GOES SUVI 195/284/304 and STEREO A EUVI 304 imagery.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-24T01:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-26T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.55", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42041/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-10-23T16:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=465.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2025-10-23T23:41Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-26T13:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-26T10:02Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-25T19:50Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251023_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-24T09:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-26T16:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.42", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-10-23 23:41\n - Time at C2: 2025-10-23 16:38\n - Radial speed: 465.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 30 deg\n - Eruption location: S05W10\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 545.50 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-10-26 16:21 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.72 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-24T20:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-27T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.48", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2025 Oct 25 1231 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 51025\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Oct 2025, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Oct 2025 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2025 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Oct 2025 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 043\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with several C-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a C1.6 flare (SIDC Flare 5872), peaking at 10:23 UTC on October 25, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 653 (NOAA Active Region 4267; magnetic type alpha). There are currently seven numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. SIDC Sunspot Group 653 (NOAA Active Region 4267) was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours, together with SIDC Sunspot Group 672 (NOAA Active Region 4256). SIDC Sunspot Group 607 (NOAA Active Region 4254; magnetic type alpha) is approaching the west limb. A new region emerged and was numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 683 (magnetic type beta) near S12E51, but remained quiet. The remaining active regions are relatively simple (magnetic type alpha or\nbeta) and did not produce any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: The faint coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 586) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery, starting at 14:36 UTC on October 23 and first reported yesterday. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a mild glancing blow could be possible on October 27. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.\n\nCoronal holes: A large recurrent positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 134) reached the central meridian at around 12:00 UTC today.\nAn associated high-speed stream may affect the solar wind environment near Earth from late October 27.\n\nSolar wind: Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected the waning influence of a high-speed stream (HSS). The solar wind speed decreased from 580 to 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained weak, below 6 nT, and its southward component fluctuated between\n-6 nT and 6 nT. A gradual transition to slow solar wind conditions is expected over the next few days, with a chance of a weak enhancement from October 27 due to the possible glancing blow from SIDC CME 586 and the arrival of a high-speed stream from a large positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 134).\n\nGeomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels globally (NOAA Kp = 4) between 03:00 and 06:00 UTC on October 25 and locally over Belgium (K-Bel = 4) at around 18:00 UTC on October 24, due to mild HSS influence.\nMostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. On October 27-28, geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active and minor storm levels, with a chance of isolated moderate storm periods due to the expected HSS and a possible glancing blow from SIDC CME 586.\n\nProton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the\n10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.\n\nElectron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.\n\n\n\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 099, BASED ON 07 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 24 Oct 2025\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 105\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 134\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 020\nAK WINGST : 012\nESTIMATED AP : 012\nESTIMATED ISN : 098, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES\nNONE\nEND" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-25T01:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-27T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.90", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-10-23 21:42\nRadial velocity (km/s): 602\nLongitude (deg): 21.3\nLatitude (deg): -3.8\nHalf-angular width (deg): 18.5\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-25T15:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-26T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.22", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-10-23T23:30Z \nRadial velocity (km/s): 440\nLongitude (deg): W015\nLatitude (deg): S15\nHalf-angular width (deg): 20\n\nNotes: Low confidence, based on St A cor2 analysis as hard to distinguish in SOHO C2/C3 or GOES ccor1 due to other activity. Weak glancing impact likely but may be enhanced by fast winds.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-27T14:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-26T19:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-27T14:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-26T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-10-15T15:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-10-15T15:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-10-18T05:15Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and the north in STEREO A COR2. The source of this event is a region of dimming seen centered at approximately S05W30 beginning at approximately 2025-10-15T14:04Z as seen in GOES SUVI and STEREO A EUVI 195. This dimming is also accompanied by wide opening field lines seen in GOES SUVI 195, 284 and STEREO A EUVI 195.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-15T20:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-18T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.63", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-15T20:37:55Z\n## Message ID: 20251015-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-10-15T15:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~712 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 44/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-10-15T15:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-17T04:32Z and STEREO A at 2025-10-17T20:32Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-10-18T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-10-15T15:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251015_205000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251015_205000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251015_205000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251015_205000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251015_205000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251015_205000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251015_205000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-16T11:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-18T06:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.50", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-10-15 20:50\n - Time at C2: 2025-10-15 15:36\n - Radial speed: 712.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 35 deg\n - Eruption location: N09W44\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 619.60 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-10-18 06:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.28 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-17T10:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-18T15:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.18", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2025 Oct 17 1235 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 51017\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Oct 2025, 1234UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Oct 2025 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 018 PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Oct 2025 10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 023 PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Oct 2025 10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 021\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 4 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an\nM1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 5811) peaking on October 17 at 01:28 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA Active Region 4246). This is the most complex on disk and was responsible for all of the M-class flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot group 621 (NOAA Active region 4248), another complex region on disk, was stable. A new region rotated over the east solar limb and was numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 672 (NOAA Active region 4256). The remaining regions on disk were mostly quiet and either stable or in decay.\nThe solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: The partial halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) directed the west that was reported yesterday, first detected in\nSOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 15:00 UTC on October 15 has been further analysed and a glancing blow may be possible from late on October 18.\nNo new Earth directed CMEs were observed." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-17T20:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-18T08:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "8.65", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-17T20:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-18T06:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "8.65", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-10-13T13:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-10-13T13:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-10-17T09:32Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide CME visible to the NE in STEREO A COR2 and the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.2 flare from AR 14246 (N24W23) peaking at 2025-10-13T13:18Z. Eruption with dimming and opening field lines best seen in GOES SUVI 195 and from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 195.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-13T16:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-16T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "89.00", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-13T16:32:03Z\n## Message ID: 20251013-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-10-13T13:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~536 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 19/36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-10-13T13:53:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-15T06:38Z and the flank will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-10-16T08:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-10-16T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-10-16T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-10-13T13:53:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_193500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_193500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_193500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_193500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_193500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_193500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_193500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_193500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2025-10-13T13:53:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.2 flare with ID 2025-10-13T13:04:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14246 (N24W23) which peaked at 2025-10-13T13:18Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-14T23:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-16T13:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.17", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-10-13 19:35\n - Time at C2: 2025-10-13 13:53\n - Radial speed: 536.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 31 deg\n - Eruption location: N36W19\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: M1.2 (N23W20). Peak at 2025-10-13 13:04\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 555.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-10-16 13:08 (i.e. predicted transit time: 71.25 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-15T00:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-16T13:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.65", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-15T00:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-16T13:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.65", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-10-13T06:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-10-13T06:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-10-17T09:32Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and to the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.9 flare peaking at 2025-10-13T05:26Z from AR 14246 (N24W19). The flare is best seen in GOES SUVI 131 and eruption with dimming and opening field lines is best seen in GOES SUVI 195. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-13T17:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-16T05:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-27.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "88.27", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41736/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-10-13T06:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=20.0, Lat.=17.0, Speed=499.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2025-10-13T12:46Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-16T05:46Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =15.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-15T23:52Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-14T22:56Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-16T02:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_124600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-13T18:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-16T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "87.38", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41740/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-10-13T06:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=36.0, Speed=393.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2025-10-13T15:03Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-16T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-16T08:25Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-15T06:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-16T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251013_150300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-13T18:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-16T08:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "87.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-13T18:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-16T08:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "87.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-10-03T16:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-10-03T16:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-10-09T07:40Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint, wide, slow CME observed as barely a partial halo to the E/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and more directly to the E in STEREO A COR2 with a large data gap between 2025-10-03T18:53Z to 2025-10-03T22:23Z. The source for this event is uncertain, and the slow evolving lobed nature of the front highlights this uncertainty, with two visible eruption candidates that are poor fits. A filament eruption spanning N20W30 to N40W60 which begins to lift-off around 2025-10-03T15:45Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/304 is observed, along with faint, slow dimming and field line loop brightening over cluster of AR 14232 (N04W14) and AR 14236 (N10W22) starting around 2025-10-03T15:00Z; but neither source is clearly associated with this front.\nArrival characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from approx. 8nT to approx. 13nT, reaching a maximum of 14nT. Accompanied by a small increase in solar wind speed from 345 km/s to 400 km/s.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-04T11:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-08T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 18.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 18.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "115.80", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 51004\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Oct 2025, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 04 Oct 2025 10CM FLUX: 166 / AP: 014\nPREDICTIONS FOR 05 Oct 2025 10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 015\nPREDICTIONS FOR 06 Oct 2025 10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 011\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A slow, partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC\nCME 571) was detected in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery, lifting\noff the east limb starting from around 18:30 UTC on October 03. A possible\nassociation is a filament eruption in the northeast quadrant, observed in\nAIA 304 data around 16:00 UTC on October 03. Current analysis suggests a\nspeed slower than 200 km/s and a small chance for a glancing blow arrival\nstarting from the UTC morning on October 08.\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# HALO CME ALERTS from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium), generated by CACTUS #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n\n A halo or partial-halo CME was detected with the following characteristics:\n\n t0 | dt0| pa | da | v | dv | minv| maxv|\n2025-10-03T16:48:07.896 | 6.999722222222222 | 99 | 156 | 156 | 38 | 103 | 276\n\n\n t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff\n dt0: duration of liftoff (hours)\n pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees)\n da: angular width of the CME (degrees),\n v: median velocity (km/s)\n dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME\n mindv: lowest velocity detected within the CME\n maxdv: highest velocity detected within the CME\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-06T15:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-08T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.52", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41638/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-10-03T16:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=213.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2025-10-04T07:00Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-08T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-08T06:00Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-06T06:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-06T16:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-07T03:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-08T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.33", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 330\nLongitude (deg): E015\nLatitude (deg): S01\nHalf-angular width (deg): 32\n\nNotes: Complex eruption, low confidence in analysis. Minimal impact expected due to low speed, which also gives broad error bars. Arrival delayed slightly over original forecast.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-07T03:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-08T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.12", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-07T03:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-08T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.12", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-10-03T05:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-10-03T05:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-10-06T06:35Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the east in STEREO A COR2, SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and faintly in GOES CCOR-1 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely related to an M1.5 flare from Active Region 14236 (N14W12) starting around 2025-10-03T05:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Post eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2025-10-03T06:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 171 and 195 imagery. Arrival signature at 2025-10-06T06:35Z generally characterized by slight increase in total magnetic field strength from 4 to 6 nT and stabilizing field components with time/apparent flux rope signature, as well as smoothing in density, velocity, and temperature data.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-03T11:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-06T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.23", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 51003\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Oct 2025, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 03 Oct 2025 10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 016\nPREDICTIONS FOR 04 Oct 2025 10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 013\nPREDICTIONS FOR 05 Oct 2025 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 008\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A second wide Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 570) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, lifting off the east limb around 07:00 UTC on October 03. It is most likely associated with the M1.5 flare (SIDC Flare\n5665) that peaked at 05:23 UTC on October 03, associated with SIDC Sunspot\nGroup 657 (NOAA Active Region 4236). Current analysis suggests a small\nchance for a glancing blow arrival starting from the UTC evening on October\n06." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-03T13:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-06T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.37", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41587/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-10-03T05:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=442.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2025-10-03T13:43Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-06T11:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-04T19:40Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-06T07:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-03T20:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-06T17:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.9, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.6, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.52", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/10/03 05:55Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 15:30Z; 20Rsun; NE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:30Z; 20Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:00\nPOS Midpoint: 15:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:35\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.74\nTravel Time: ~8.74 * 9:35 = 83:46\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-10-06T17:41Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/10/03 20:00Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-05T08:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-06T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.17", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-10-03T13:17Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 428\nLongitude (deg): 12N\nLatitude (deg): 3W\nHalf-angular width (deg): 19\n\nNotes: M1.5 and filament like eruption from AR4236. Based on STEREO-A coronagraph as any associated CME on C2/C3 images not discernible, so Low confidence in fit. TG\nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-06T16:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-06T15:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 32.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-10.37", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-10-06T16:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-10-06T15:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 32.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-10.37", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-09-04T20:30:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-09-04T20:30Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-09-06T13:51Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "A very faint full halo CME best seen to the SE in GOES CCOR-1 and in SOHO LASCO C3. Following SOHO backfill, the CME's start time in SOHO LASCO C2 is closer to 2025-09-04T19:48Z. The CME is completely covered by the large data gap in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-09-04T18Z and ending at 2025-09-04T22:08Z. Its source is likely the 2025-09-04T19:19Z central eruption near AR 4206 (N08W09), with a long, narrow southward-directed filament best seen in SDO AIA 304 and in GOES SUVI 304. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades are also best visible in SDO AIA 193, and the eruption can be seen across all wavelengths of SDO AIA imagery. Arrival signature: Significant shock arrival with magnetic field rapidly increasing from already elevated 9 nT to 15 nT and then to just under 22 nT. Solar wind speeds rapidly increase from 510 km/s to 700 km/s, and ion temperature increases from 154 Kelvin to over 650 Kelvin following the arrival. After 2025-09-06T17Z there is a significant drop of ion density (following the initial increase to just under 15 p/cc), as well as smooth rotation of two magnetic field components, very clearly indicating the magnetic cloud. Bz stays positive for many hours after the start of magnetic cloud stage.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-05T15:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-06T18:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.10", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41052/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-09-04T20:30:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-19.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=1021.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2025-09-04T23:04Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-09-06T18:42Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =19.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.4\n(kp)90=7\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-06T19:35Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_230400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-05T16:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-06T12:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.63", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41054/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-09-04T20:30:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-14.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=1379.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2025-09-04T22:02Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-09-06T12:10Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =22.6 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.3\n(kp)90=8\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-06T12:59Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-07T05:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250904_220200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-05T17:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-06T22:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.02, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.82, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.18", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2025-09-06T00:11:30Z ## Message ID: 20250906-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-09-04T20:30:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250905-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-09-06T15:53Z and 2025-09-07T06:43Z (average arrival 2025-09-06T22:54Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 97% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-8 range (minor to severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_Earth_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe simulation ensemble results show the incorrect location for Parker Solar Probe and for BepiColombo.\n\nThis CME event (2025-09-04T20:30:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-09-06T19:35Z and STEREO A (glancing blow) at 2025-09-07T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20250905-AL-001).\n\nThis CME event (2025-09-04T20:30:00-CME-001) is associated with a C3.3 flare from AR 14206 (N12W05) with ID 2025-09-04T19:11:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-09-04T19:46Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/Detailed_results_20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-05T19:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-06T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.57", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 04/2015 UTC\nRadial velocity (km/s): 900\nLongitude (deg): 2W\nLatitude (deg): 8N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 38\n\nNotes: Poor imagery. Low confidence\nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC - multiple" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-05T22:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-07T02:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.39, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.12", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/09/04 19:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 00:00Z; 21Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 00:30Z; 21Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:30\nPOS Midpoint: 00:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:35\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~4:35\nTravel Time: ~4:35 * 4:35 = 54:47\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-09-07T02:27Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/09/05 22:41Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-05T23:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-06T19:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.02", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-04 22:02\n - Time at C2: 2025-09-04 20:30\n - Radial speed: 1379.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 37 deg\n - Eruption location: S09E14\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 819.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-09-06 19:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 47.02 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-06T00:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-06T20:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 76.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.8, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.8, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-06T00:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-06T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-06T00:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-06T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.22", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-09-04T23:15Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 965 km/s\nLongitude (deg): -20\nLatitude (deg): -9\nHalf-angular width (deg): 42\n\nNotes:" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-08-30T20:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T20:26Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide CME observed first by STEREO A COR2 at 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Updated observations in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 from preliminary analysis where they were not included due to field-of-view with GOES CCOR-1 and a downlink gap resuming at 2025-08-30T21:20Z for SOHO LASCO. The source for this CME is a long duration M2.7 class flare from AR 14199 (N03E13) which began at 2025-08-30T19:11Z and peaked at 2025-08-30T20:02Z, viewed well in SDO AIA 131. Wide field line opening, dimming, and an EUV wave are observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211 and GOES SUVI 284. Brightening as a double ribbon flare and post-eruptive arcade observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211/304 and GOES SUVI 304. Additionally observed from STEREO A EUVI 195 as field line opening and dimming, and STEREO A EUVI 304 as brightening, around N03E60 as viewed from STEREO A. Arrival: Significant shock arrival with magnetic field rapidly increasing from 5 nT to 26 nT over several minutes near 2025-09-01T20:26Z in association with the arrival of CMEs: 2025-08-30T00:23Z and halo CME 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Wind speeds rapidly increase from 390 km/s to 675 km/s, and temperature rapidly increases from 80,000 Kelvin to over 1 million Kelvin following the arrival.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-30T22:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T19:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.33", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-08-30T22:06:35Z\n## Message ID: 20250830-AL-006\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250830-AL-005). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-09-01T20:51Z and the flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-09-02T09:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-09-01T19:21Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 7-8 (strong to severe).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are (event remains O-type):\n\nStart time of the event: 2025-08-30T20:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1317 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -13/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001) is associated with M2.7 flare from AR 14199 (N03E13) with ID 2025-08-30T19:11:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-08-30T20:02Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-30T22:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T15:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.80", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40993/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-8.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=1265.0, HalfAngle=53.0, Time21.5=2025-08-30T22:44Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-09-01T15:55Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =29.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.8\n(kp)90=8\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-01T16:40Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-01T18:57Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-30T23:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T14:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.55, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.28, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.88", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/08/30 19:50Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 23:00Z; 21Rsun; SSE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 00:10Z; 21Rsun; NNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:10\nPOS Midpoint: 23:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 3:50\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~11.19\nTravel Time: ~11.19 * 3:50 = 42:53\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-09-01T14:43Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/08/30 23:29Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-31T00:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.23", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Aug 31 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity increased to moderate levels (R1-Minor). Region 4197\n(S18W17, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M1.3 flare at 30/1409 UTC and an\nM1.2 flare at 30/1559 UTC. This region was mostly stable with some minor\ndecay noted in the intermediate spot area. Region 4199 (N04W03,\nCai/beta) produced the largest flare of the period, a long-duration M2.7\nflare at 30/2002 UTC. The remaining regions were stable.\n\nAn asymmetric full-halo CME associated with the long-duration M2.7 flare\nat 30/2002 UTC from AR4199 was first observed in LASCO C3 imagery at\n~30/2030 UTC. Analysis suggests this CME will arrive during the latter\nhalf of 01 Sep." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-31T00:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T18:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.05", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40996/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-08-30T00:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=25.0, Speed=878.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2025-08-30T03:50Z\n2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=1303.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-08-30T22:41Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-09-01T18:24Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =25.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0\n(kp)90=7\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-01T18:28Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-01T08:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-31T01:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.43", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 31/22:55 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1114\nLongitude (deg): 08E\nLatitude (deg): 05S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-31T08:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T12:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.83, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.83, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.05", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): -5.5\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 43.5\n\ninitial CME speed: 1284.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2025-08-30T22:42Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-31T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-02T01:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 2.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.43", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1284.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 742.812\nAcceleration: -0.375451\nDuration in seconds: 192306.50\nDuration in days: 2.2257697\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.38 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 670.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 02/09/2025 Time: 01:34 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-31T12:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.87", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 30/2245UTC\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1420km/s\nLongitude (deg): 3E\nLatitude (deg): 6N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 36\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-31T12:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.85", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50831\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 31 Aug 2025, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 31 Aug 2025 10CM FLUX: 222 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 01 Sep 2025 10CM FLUX: 222 / AP: 060\nPREDICTIONS FOR 02 Sep 2025 10CM FLUX: 222 / AP: 023\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo CME erupted on 30 August, first seen at\n20:12 UT on SOHO LASCO C2. The CME was associated with an M2.7 flare from\nSIDC Sunspot Group 617 (NOAA 4199), located at N04E01 (almost at disk\ncenter). This CME is Earth directed, preliminary speeds calculation\nestimates are about 1600 km/s, with an arrival time around 14:00 UT on 1\nSeptember. These values may be updated in the coming hours as the result of\nongoing analysis.\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA full halo CME erupted on 30 August, first seen at 20:12 UT on SOHO LASCO C2. The CME was associated with an M2.7 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 617 (NOAA 4199), located at N04E01 (almost at disk center). This CME is Earth directed, preliminary speeds calculation estimates are about 1600 km/s, with an arrival time around 14:00 UT on 1 September. Significant geomagnetic disturbances can be expected then (major/severe geomagnetic storm levels). These values may be updated in the coming hours as the result of ongoing analysis.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-31T23:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T15:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.43, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.21, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.28", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-09-01T13:01:23Z\n## Message ID: 20250901-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2025-08-30T00:23:00-CME-001 and 2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250831-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2025-09-01T05:38Z and 2025-09-02T00:38Z (average arrival 2025-09-01T18:29Z) for 41% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-09-01T09:05Z and 2025-09-01T19:44Z (average arrival 2025-09-01T15:31Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 36% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 7-8 range (strong to severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-31_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084/20250830_200900_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-31_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084/20250830_200900_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-31_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084/20250830_200900_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-31_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084/20250830_200900_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-31_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084/20250830_200900_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThese CME events (2025-08-30T00:23:00-CME-001 and 2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001) are also predicted to impact OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-09-01T18:28Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20250831-AL-001).\n\nThe CME event (2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001) is associated with M2.7 flare from AR 14199 (N03E13) with ID 2025-08-30T19:11:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-08-30T20:02Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-31_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084/Detailed_results_20250830_200900_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-01T00:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-02T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.82", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-08-30 22:49\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1358\nLongitude (deg): -3\nLatitude (deg): 5\nHalf-angular width (deg): 31\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvoHI", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-01T09:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T14:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 1.02, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 1.02, "confidenceInPercentage" : 76.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.10", "predictionNote" : "Data used: STEREO-A/HI beacon data (max. elongation is 33.3°)\nDirection: 52° from STEREO-A (+/- 10°)\nHalf width: 42° (+/- 10°)\n\n------ELEvoHI ensemble modelling------\nTargets:\n ========\n Parker Solar Probe\n --------\n Arrival Probability: 76 %\n Deterministic Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-08-31 15:28 +/- 0.77 hours\n Mean Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-08-31 15:29 +/- 0.77 hours\n Median Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-08-31 15:18 +/- 0.77 hours\n Mean Arrival Speed: 864 +/- 22 km/s\n --------\n ========\n L1\n --------\n Arrival Probability: 76 %\n Deterministic Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-09-01 14:38 +/- 1.02 hours\n Mean Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-09-01 15:32 +/- 1.02 hours\n Median Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-09-01 15:28 +/- 1.02 hours\n Mean Arrival Speed: 813 +/- 57 km/s\n --------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-01T13:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T18:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 94.1667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.42857, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.42857, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "7.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-01T13:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "7.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-08-30T00:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-08-30T00:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T20:26Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint loop CME seen to the NE in STEREO A COR2 and as an extremely faint flux rope CME to the NNW in SOHO LASCO C2. Not visible in CCOR-1; obstructed by pylon. Source is an eruption from AR 14198 (N11W19) seen as dimming and brightening starting at 2025-08-29T23:37Z in SDO AIA 193. Arrival: Significant shock arrival with magnetic field rapidly increasing from 5 nT to 26 nT over several minutes near 2025-09-01T20:26Z in association with the arrival of CMEs: 2025-08-30T00:23Z and halo CME 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Wind speeds rapidly increase from 390 km/s to 675 km/s, and temperature rapidly increases from 80,000 Kelvin to over 1 million Kelvin following the arrival.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-30T19:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T19:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.00", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-08-30T19:26:43Z\n## Message ID: 20250830-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-08-30T00:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~878 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 15/25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-08-30T00:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-09-01T18:27Z and the flank of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2025-09-01T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-09-01T19:23Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-08-30T00:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-31T00:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T18:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.05", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40996/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-08-30T00:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=25.0, Speed=878.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2025-08-30T03:50Z\n2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=1303.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-08-30T22:41Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-09-01T18:24Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =25.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0\n(kp)90=7\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-01T18:28Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-01T08:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-31T23:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T15:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.43, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.21, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.28", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-09-01T13:01:23Z\n## Message ID: 20250901-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2025-08-30T00:23:00-CME-001 and 2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250831-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2025-09-01T05:38Z and 2025-09-02T00:38Z (average arrival 2025-09-01T18:29Z) for 41% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-09-01T09:05Z and 2025-09-01T19:44Z (average arrival 2025-09-01T15:31Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 36% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 7-8 range (strong to severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-31_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084/20250830_200900_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-31_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084/20250830_200900_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-31_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084/20250830_200900_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-31_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084/20250830_200900_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-31_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084/20250830_200900_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThese CME events (2025-08-30T00:23:00-CME-001 and 2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001) are also predicted to impact OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-09-01T18:28Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20250831-AL-001).\n\nThe CME event (2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001) is associated with M2.7 flare from AR 14199 (N03E13) with ID 2025-08-30T19:11:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-08-30T20:02Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-31_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084/Detailed_results_20250830_200900_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA084.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-01T13:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T17:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "7.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-09-01T13:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-09-01T18:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "7.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-08-05T16:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-08-05T16:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-08-08T23:46Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and NE in STEREO A COR2. Source is the M4.4 flare from AR 14168 centered (N04W07) starting around 2025-08-05T15:50Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming is observed southwest of the flare site in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, and post-eruptive arcades begin to form in the flare location around 2025-08-05T16:50Z. This CME may have been deflected towards the Northwest, as this Active Region is situation to the Northwest of a large coronal hole. CME Arrival: This CME likely had a glancing blow at L1 around 2025-08-08T23:46Z. This was preceded by a CIR starting around 2025-08-08T06:30Z and associated coronal hole high speed stream. Arrival characterized by a rotation in magnetic field components, including Bz reaching approximately -14.8nT. Characterized by a decrease in temperature and no clear change in density during the CME's passage. Solar wind speeds decreased from approximately 560 km/s to approximately 480 km/s, and remained around 480 km/s until 2025-08-09T15:25Z, where coronal hole high speed stream influence likely continued.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-05T21:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-08-08T06:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.45", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40391/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-08-05T16:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=21.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=558.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2025-08-05T22:49Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-08-08T06:18Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =108.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-06T14:20Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-08T05:53Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-07T12:09Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-08T11:27Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250805_224900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-05T22:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-08-08T03:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.6, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.10", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2025-08-07T00:15:13Z ## Message ID: 20250807-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-08-05T16:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250805-AL-001).\n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2025-08-07T23:11Z and 2025-08-08T18:56Z (average arrival 2025-08-08T10:08Z) for 83% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally, the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-08-07T18:46Z and 2025-08-08T08:02Z (average arrival 2025-08-08T03:27Z) for 70% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 94% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-06_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA083/20250805_164800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA083_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-06_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA083/20250805_164800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA083_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-06_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA083/20250805_164800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA083_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-06_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA083/20250805_164800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA083_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-06_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA083/20250805_164800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA083_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event is also predicted to impact BepiColombo at 2025-08-06T14:20Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-08-08T05:53Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-08-07T12:09Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20250805-AL-001).\n\nThis CME event (2025-08-05T16:48:00-CME-001) is associated with M4.4 flare from Active Region 14168 (N04W07) with ID 2025-08-05T15:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-08-05T15:53Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-08-06_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA083/Detailed_results_20250805_164800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA083.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-05T23:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-08-08T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.77", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s): 570\nLongitude (deg): 10\nLatitude (deg): 6\nHalf-angular width (deg): 30\n\nNotes:\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2025 Aug 07 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 07-Aug 09 2025\n\n Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09\n00-03UT 1.33 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1)\n03-06UT 1.33 6.00 (G2) 4.33 \n06-09UT 1.33 4.33 3.67 \n09-12UT 2.33 3.67 4.00 \n12-15UT 2.33 3.00 3.00 \n15-18UT 3.00 3.33 3.33 \n18-21UT 2.67 3.67 3.67 \n21-00UT 4.33 4.00 4.00 \nRationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09\nAug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-06T00:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-08-08T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.53", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 572\nLongitude (deg): 16\nLatitude (deg): 9\nHalf-angular width (deg): 30\n\nNotes: Low confidence due to poor ENLIL coronal hole forecasting currently.\nSpace weather advisor: Stuart Webster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-06T01:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-08-08T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.50", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-08-05T22:56Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 575\nLongitude (deg):17.5\nLatitude (deg):10\nHalf-angular width (deg):30\n\nNotes: by Soojeong Jang" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-06T01:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-08-09T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 14.42, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.93, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.93", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/08/05 16:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 00:30Z; 21Rsun; WNW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 01:50Z; 21Rsun; ESE Direction\nPOS Difference: 01:20\nPOS Midpoint: 01:10Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:50\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.94\nTravel Time: ~10.94 * 8:50 = 96:40\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-08-09T17:00Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/08/06 01:42Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-06T10:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-08-09T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.45", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50806\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Aug 2025, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 06 Aug 2025 10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 07 Aug 2025 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 022\nPREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2025 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 014\n\nA wide Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 537) was\nobserved in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, starting from around 17:15 UTC on\nAugust 05, lifting off the west limb. It is most likely associated with the\nM4.4 flare (SIDC Flare 5041) that peaked at 15:53 UTC on August 05. An\nassociated type IV radio emission was detected starting from 15:58 UTC on\nAugust 05. Current analysis suggests that an ICME arrival at Earth can be\nexpected, starting from the UTC noon on August 09." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-13T16:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-08-08T17:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-112.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-08-13T16:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-08-08T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 72.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-112.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-07-25T18:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-07-25T18:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-07-28T22:58Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Relatively fast, narrow CME seen to the southeast only in STEREO A COR2A starting around 2025-07-25T18:23Z and not seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 or GOES19 CCOR-1, likely associated with a minor eruption northwest of Active Region 4154 near S09E25; the signature is seen a brightening loop with larger overarching dimming signature in SDO AIA 193, locally separating magnetic field lines in SDO AIA 171, 131, and 304, and in GOES SUVI 284, an omnidirectional, cone-shaped EUV wave emanating from the parent source. The CME is seen quickly in three frames of STEREO A COR2A before rapidly becoming more diffuse and immeasurable before exiting the coronagraph field of view. M2M simulation represents an lower confidence measurement with just one spacecraft's coronagraph images (STEREO A), using just three available frames and knowledge of the source location using EUV imagery. | Arrival signature: Signature at ACE at L1 characterized by a gradual increase in B-total from 5.00nT to 7.67nT, some minor rotation in B-field components, and a simultaneous increase in speed from about 370 km/s to 410 km/s. No notable reaction in solar wind density and temperature data.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-26T01:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-29T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.88", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-26T01:05:30Z\n## Message ID: 20250726-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-07-25T18:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~938 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 11 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -25/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-07-25T18:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-07-26T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-07-29T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-07-25T18:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250725_215000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250725_215000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250725_215000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250725_215000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-26T01:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-29T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.88", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-26T01:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-29T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.88", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-07-23T04:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-07-23T04:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-07-26T07:37Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME seen to the East in STEREO A COR2 and as a faint partial halo to the East in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. Source is a small filament seen lifting off at 2025-07-23T02:06Z. Post-eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 304 spanning from S00 to S10 and from W15 to W25, but the filamentary material itself can be seen lifting off as far north as N20E05. POSSIBLE arrival observed around 2025-07-26T07:37Z characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components (Btotal maximum: 11nT) followed by a smooth rotation, likely indicating the presence a flux rope. A gradual increase in solar wind speed was also observed from ~480 to 580 km/s. From Sanchita Pal, LASSOS team: The start time of the flux rope is likely around 2025-07-26T16:20Z, after that the density and temperature decrease. Before this timestamp, density is high. This preceding signature with high density could be because a pile-up of the solar wind material or could be a sheath. Inside the flux rope B_radial component is high, it means the flux rope can be crossed with a larger distance from the center to the spacecraft propagation path. Mostly small/no-rotation in field line vector means either(1) the CME flux rope is crossed through flank or (2) the flux rope is crossed by spacecraft keeping a large distance from the center.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-23T13:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-26T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.83", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40203/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-07-23T04:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-7.0, Lat.=4.0, Speed=460.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2025-07-23T13:15Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-07-26T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-07-24T13:15Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-07-26T00:00Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-07-25T07:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250723_131500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-23T16:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-27T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.67, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.65", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\n-----------------\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Jul 24 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n\n...A filament eruption was observed near 23/0500 UTC centered near N07W12.\nThe associated CME was then observed first in STEREO A coronagraph\nimagery around 23/0523 UTC with what is perhaps a secondary portion of\nthe filament eruption then becoming visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph\nimagery near 23/0748 UTC, which appears as a very faint, partial halo.\nModeling of this event determined an arrival at Earth near mid UTC day\non 27 July.\n\n-----------------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-23T17:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-26T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.38", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-07-23T13:07Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 446\nLongitude (deg): E006\nLatitude (deg): N07\nHalf-angular width (deg): 24\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Duty forecaster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-24T00:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-26T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.10", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-07-23T14:19Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 450\nLongitude (deg): -3\nLatitude (deg): 8\nHalf-angular width (deg): 29\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-24T02:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-26T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.62", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-07-23 13:11\nRadial velocity (km/s): 466\nLongitude (deg):0\nLatitude (deg):4\nHalf-angular width (deg):29\n\nNotes: by Soojeong Jang" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-24T02:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-26T05:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.67", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-23 13:15\n - Time at C2: 2025-07-23 04:53\n - Radial speed: 460.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 26 deg\n - Eruption location: N04E07\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 544.00 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-07-26 05:49 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.93 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-24T04:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-28T08:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.07, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.74, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "49.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.53", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/07/23 05:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 21:30Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 22:30Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:00\nPOS Midpoint: 22:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 16:45\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.37\nTravel Time: ~7.37 * 16:45 = 123:30\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-07-28T08:45Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/07/24 03:40Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-24T04:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-26T14:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.28, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.71, "confidenceInPercentage" : 33.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.52", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/07/23 05:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 21:30Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 22:30Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:00\nPOS Midpoint: 22:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 16:45\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~4.87\nTravel Time: ~4.87 * 16:45 = 81:30\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-07-26T14:45Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/07/24 04:05Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-24T12:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-26T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.75", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50724\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 24 Jul 2025, 1239UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jul 2025 10CM FLUX: 151 / AP: 008\nPREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jul 2025 10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 014\nPREDICTIONS FOR 26 Jul 2025 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 026\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A faint partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC\nCME 530) was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from\naround 08:00 UTC on July 23. The CME is probably associated with a filament\neruption in the southwest quadrant seen in SUVI 304 data from around 02:30\nUTC on July 23. Preliminary analysis suggests that the ICME may arrive at\nEarth starting from the UTC noon on July 26. Further analysis of the event\nis ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available\ncoronagraph imagery.\n\n------------------------------\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA faint, slow partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 530) was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 08:00 UTC on July 23. The CME is probably associated with a filament eruption in the southwest quadrant seen in SUVI 304 data from around 02:30 UTC on July 23. Preliminary analysis suggests that the CME has a projected velocity around 300 km/s and the ICME may arrive at Earth starting from the UTC noon on July 26.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-25T06:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-27T01:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 16.67, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 16.67, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.75", "predictionNote" : "Prediction Method: ELEvo \nPredicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-27T01:25Z (± 16.67h) \nPredicted Arrival Speed: 446 +/- 80 km/s \n \nCME input parameters: \nApex direction (deg): -7.0 longitude, 4.0 latitude \nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 \nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 26.0 \ninitial CME speed: 460.0 (+/- 50) km/s \ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun \ninitial time: 2025-07-23T13:15Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s \ntime step: 10 min \nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-25T11:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-26T18:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 63.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.445, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.16667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-25T11:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-26T14:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 63.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.335, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-06-28T21:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-07-03T05:38Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME observed as a faint partial halo, nearly a full halo, directed towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, and a brighter front to the NE in STEREO A COR. Also faintly observed in currently available frames of SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a C4.0 flare from AR 14126 (N07W22) which peaked at 2025-06-28T19:54Z observed in SDO AIA 131, alongside brightening in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and a small dimming SW of the region best seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 4.2nT to 13.2nT , B_x: approx. 6.7nT to -8.1nT , B_y: approx. 4.8nT to -4.9nT , B_z: approx. -7.6nT to 9.7nT) along with enhancement in speed (approx. 342km/s to 407km/s), temperature (approx. 12kK to 44kK) and density (approx. 7p/cc to 33p/cc). This signature also displays separation in magnetic field components, indicating the possible passage of a flux rope.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-28T23:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-01T17:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "102.15", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39820/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=589.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2025-06-29T02:07Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-07-01T17:42Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =24.7 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.3\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-07-01T03:30Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-07-01T08:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_020700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-29T17:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-02T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "83.88", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 594\nLongitude (deg): 9W\nLatitude (deg): 6N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 30" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-29T18:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-01T18:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.68, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.72", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-06-30T11:30:12Z\n## Message ID: 20250630-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250629-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2025-07-01T05:31Z and 2025-07-01T09:45Z (average arrival 2025-07-01T08:03Z) for 25% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-07-01T13:29Z and 2025-07-01T22:42Z (average arrival 2025-07-01T18:01Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 73% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001) is also predicted impact OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-07-01T03:30Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20250629-AL-001).\n\nThis CME event (2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001) is associated with C4.0 flare from Active Region 14126 (N07W22) with ID 2025-06-28T19:40:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-06-28T19:54Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/Detailed_results_20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-29T19:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-02T15:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.49, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.12, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.38", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/06/28 20:30Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 09:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 12:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:00\nPOS Midpoint: 11:10Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 14:40\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.17\nTravel Time: ~6.17 * 14:40 = 90:32\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-07-02T15:02Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/06/29 19:13Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-29T21:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-02T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "80.23", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Jun 30 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\n...A partial halo CME was observed beginning at 28/2112 UTC in LASCO C2\nimagery. This event is likely associated with a C4.0 flare from Region\n4126 (N07W42, Cso/beta) at 28/1954 UTC. Modelling suggest arrival early\non 02 Jul.\n\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Jun 30 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\n...A partial halo CME was observed around 28/2112 UTC in LASCO C2 imagery,\nin association with a C4.0 flare from Region 4126 (N08W51, Cso/beta) at\n28/1954 UTC, and likely has a significant Earth-directed component.\nRecent modeling and analysis suggest arrival on 02 Jul." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-30T07:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-02T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.55", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50629\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Jun 2025, 1242UT\nSIDC FORECAST\n\n...Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 21:00 UTC on Jun 28. It was associated with the C4.0 flare (peaked at 19:54 UTC on June 28) produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 537 (NOAA Active Region 4126). With its source region\n(N06 W21) closer to the central meridian, the corresponding ICME is expected to impact the Earth on Jul 01-02." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-30T23:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-02T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.63", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/0405 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 476 \nLongitude (deg): 9W\nLatitude (deg): 7S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45 \n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-01T12:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-02T03:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.38833, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.22167, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-07-01T12:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-02T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-06-27T11:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-06-27T11:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-07-01T10:30Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME first seen to the South in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-06-27T11:00Z, as well as in SOHO LASCO C3, GOES CCOR-1 and to the SE in STEREO A COR2. The source of this event is a slow, minor filament liftoff seen beginning at approx. 2025-06-27T04:00Z, centered at approximately S25W15 as seen in SDO AIA and STEREO A EUVI 304, along with field line movement and post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 171, and 193. No clear shock is associated with this arrival but a minor amplification of magnetic field components is observed with Btotal increasing from 3nT at 2025-07-01T10:30Z to 6nT at 2025-07-02T04:06Z. A possible flux rope structure is observed starting at 2025-07-02T21:54Z where a slow rotation of magnetic field components is observed. Around the same time of the flux rope signature, an increase in density is observed, reaching about 20 p/cc. There is not much response in the solar wind speed, with only a minor increase observed from ~435 km/s at 2025-07-01T16:19Z to ~466 km/s at 2025-07-02T17:11Z. Additionally, no increases in temperature are observed. This signature may be associated with the glancing blow arrival of CME: 2025-06-27T11:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-27T17:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-01T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "88.77", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39807/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-06-27T11:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=7.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=307.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2025-06-27T21:51Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-07-01T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-30T14:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-27T17:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-01T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "88.55", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-27T17:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-07-01T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "88.55", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-06-24T16:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-06-24T16:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-06-27T08:25Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME first seen in the SE by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-06-24T16:09Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is a minor eruption from the vicinity of Active Region 14117 (S15W05) exhibiting a Southeastern deflection as seen in SDO AIA 94, 171 and 193. This deflection is likely due to a large negative polarity coronal hole situated just Northwest of this eruption, causing a Southeastern deflection away from central meridian. Arrival characterized by an enhancement of magnetic field components (B_t: 4.1 to 5.7nT , B_x: 3.4 to -2.7nT , B_y: -0.1 to -4.6 , B_z: -2.6 to 3.3nT), followed by a slight separation of components and a rotation in B_z. There are no clear enhancements seen in velocity, density and speed, likely due to an overlapping coronal hole high speed stream signature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-24T18:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-27T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.25", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39724/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-06-24T16:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-29.0, Lat.=-10.0, Speed=1070.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2025-06-24T19:06Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-27T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-26T06:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-26T14:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250624_190600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-24T22:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-27T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-24T22:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-27T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-06-15T18:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-06-15T18:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-06-19T07:00Z", "maxKP" : 4.33, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "An asymmetric, fast, and relatively diffuse CME from Active Region 14114 (N18E15) seen to the north-northeast in SOHO C2 associated with an M8.4 flare peaking at 2025-06-15T18:07Z; the eruption is seen as significant dimming somewhat to the northwest of the active region with post-eruptive arcades and EUV wave also seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and in STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME is likely deflected northwards out of the ecliptic, but analysis from M2M suggests that the southern flank may graze Earth early on 2025-06-18. Possible weak glancing blow around 2025-06-19T07:00Z distinguished by small, brief rise in velocity data as observed be ACE/DSCOVR and magnetic field component separation lasting until about 2025-06-19T16:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-16T19:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-18T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.90", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-06-16T19:06:14Z\n## Message ID: 20250616-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-06-15T18:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1204 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -16/57 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-06-15T18:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-06-17T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-06-18T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-15T18:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_211500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_211500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_211500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_211500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2025-06-15T18:24:00-CME-001) is associated with M8.4 flare from Active Region 14114 (N18E15) with ID 2025-06-15T17:45:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-06-15T18:07Z (see notifications 20250615-AL-003 and 20250615-AL-004).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-16T22:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-17T21:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.33, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.74, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-33.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.60", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/06/15 18:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 21:50Z; 23Rsun; N Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 23:50Z; 23Rsun; S Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:00\nPOS Midpoint: 22:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:40\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.92\nTravel Time: ~10.92 * 4:40 = 50:57\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-06-17T21:07Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 0.67 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/06/15 22:25Z\n\n\n* Estimated STEREO A arrival ~ 2025-06-18T18:00Z\n* Forecast Creation Time: 2025/06/15 23:48Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-16T22:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-18T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.50", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 15/2110UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1225\nLongitude (deg): -12\nLatitude (deg): 52\nHalf-angular width (deg): 29\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-17T09:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-18T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.37", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2025 Jun 17 1246 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50617\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Jun 2025, 1244UT\n...\nCoronal mass ejections: The fast narrow coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME\n519) first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data around 18:24 UTC\non June 15 has been modelled to primarily miss the Earth with chances of a\nshock arrival on June 18." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-17T22:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-18T06:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.42", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-17T22:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-18T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-22.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.42", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-06-15T08:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-06-15T08:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-06-19T07:00Z", "maxKP" : 4.33, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright asymmetrical CME seen to the west in all three coronagraphs. Its source is the M2.2 flare from AR 4105 (S15W70) peaking 2025-06-15T07:56Z and the associated eruption with faint ejecta seen going westward in GOES SUVI 304, post-eruptive arcades best seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and EUVI A 195, and a relatively small area of dimming centered around (S11W65) seen in SDO AIA 193 and even clearer in EUVI A 195. Possible weak glancing blow around 2025-06-19T07:00Z distinguished by small, brief rise in velocity data as observed be ACE/DSCOVR and magnetic field component separation lasting until about 2025-06-19T16:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-15T14:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-18T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "88.45", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, STEREO A, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-06-15T14:33:18Z\n## Message ID: 20250615-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\nA very cursory glancing blow at L1 possible.\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-06-15T08:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~806 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 57/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-06-15T08:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juice, STEREO A, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-06-17T14:29Z, STEREO A at 2025-06-17T06:56Z, and its flank may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-06-17T03:00Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-06-15T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME might have a cursory glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-06-18T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-15T08:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-15T17:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-20T13:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.87, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.18, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "30.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "85.25", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/06/15 08:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 14:30Z; 22Rsun; W Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 18:50Z; 22Rsun; E Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:20\nPOS Midpoint: 16:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:25\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: -2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~14.89\nTravel Time: ~14.89 * 8:25 = 125:21\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-06-20T13:36Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 0.67 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/06/15 16:56Z\n\n\n\n* STEREO A arrival estimated either ~2025-06-18T12:00Z (66%) or ~ 2025-06-19T20:00Z (33%)\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/06/15 17:44Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-16T13:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-18T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.88", "predictionNote" : "Expected arrival time: 2025-06-18T22:00:00Z\n\n Arrival time uncertainty: 12\n\n\n Estimated peak K: 5\n\n Peak K uncertainty: 1\n\n\n Probability of arrival: 45\n\n\n CME start time: 2025-06-15T08:00:00Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-16T16:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-19T03:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-16T16:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-18T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-06-08T02:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-06-08T02:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-06-12T19:30Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The source is likely related to a large dimming region centered near N10E40 which begins to appear around 2025-06-08T01:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. Possible arrival signature starting around 2025-06-12T19:30Z: a likely signature of a flux rope, characterized by the lowering of ion density and temperature, and by the smooth velocity decrease, as well as by smooth rotation of magnetic field components. It is following the coronal hole high speed stream which started around 2025-06-11T11:25Z", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-08T13:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-12T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "101.52", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39321/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-06-08T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-38.0, Lat.=29.0, Speed=326.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2025-06-08T16:12Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-12T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-11T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250608_161200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-09T00:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-12T00:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "91.10", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-06-08T15:30Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 361\nLongitude (deg): 015E\nLatitude (deg): 29N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 34\n\nNotes: Clear dimming and filament-channel like signature on e.g. AIA211. Probable filament eruption or upper corona-borne feature. Modelled as two lobes, an inner slower core and an outer, misaligned and further westward shock-like portion that is travelling marginally faster. This solution pertains to the outer, although it is difficult to unpick MOSWOC Enlil at present due to the high number of CMEs modelled. E/N coordinates no not closely match observed site of eruption, and it has been inferred that the release was not radial as the imagery for the fit is good (C2,3 and COR2). W edge faint in Lasco.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence after Jay Merrell" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-09T01:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-14T12:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 18.44, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 17.47, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "40.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "89.93", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/06/08 02:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 20:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 05:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 9:00\nPOS Midpoint: 00:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 22:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: +1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.86\nTravel Time: ~6.86 * 22:30 = 154:28\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-06-14T12:28Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/06/09 01:29Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-09T16:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-13T01:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-09T16:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-12T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-06-03T07:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-06-03T07:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-06-07T00:15Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "A slow partial halo CME to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1 and to the east in STEREO A COR2, seen more brightly in COR2. Its start time could possibly be even earlier as some wispy outflows start in SOHO LASCO C2 approximately an hour before, but the clear front is seen closer to 2025-06-03T07:48Z. Its source is likely the eruption of a filament north and northeast of the disk center, seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and EUVI A 195/304/284 starting at ~2025-06-03T01:21Z. The development of the associated dimming is very peculiar, with initial dimming (and the faint post-eruptive arcades) centered around ~(N20E01), but later the dimming is seen migrating/expanding eastwardly through the rest of the morning, and settling on a large circular area centered ~N35E15 by 2025-06-03T12:20Z. | Arrival Signature: Characterized by an initial spike in Bt from 5nT to 6.6nT, gradually rising up to 11.8nT by 2025-06-07T12:19Z, Bz largely northward and neutral with some brief southward periods down to -10nT. Three distinct changes of the magnetic field components are observed around 2025-06-07T6:30Z, 2025-06-07T8:37Z, and 2025-06-07T11:21Z as well. Solar wind speed increased from about 400 km/s to about 420 km/s briefly, returned to about 380 km/s, then slowy rose back to around 430 km/s starting at 2025-06-07T03:51Z. A gradual rise and decrease of density begins with the intial Bt spike around 2025-06-07T00:15Z to 2025-06-07T08:42Z, with a another short jump in density from 2025-06-07T10:11Z to 2025-06-07T11:32Z. A gradual rise and decrease in temperature begins around 2025-06-07T03:00Z ending around 2025-06-07T12:20Z. This is likely the arrival of CME 2025-06-03T07:48Z, possibly mixed with a weak high speed stream signature, this signature is under further analysis due to its complexity.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-03T17:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-07T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "78.52", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39272/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-06-03T07:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=328.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2025-06-03T18:09Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-07T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-06T06:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-04T05:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-06T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.58", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-06-04T05:40Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 520\nLongitude (deg): E021\nLatitude (deg): N22\nHalf-angular width (deg): 31\n\nNotes: Low confidence for arrival. Glancing impact most likely.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-04T05:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-07T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-04T05:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-07T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-05-31T14:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-05-31T14:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-06-02T20:09Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo CME first seen in the East by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-05-31T14:23Z. This CME is seen VERY faintly in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR as a full halo signature in later frames. There is no abundantly clear source for this event. There is a small region of brightening and field line movement from AR 14100 (N15E08) beginning at approx. 2025-05-31T13:34Z as seen in SDO AIA 94 and 211 that may be associated with this CME. | Arrival Signature: Characterized by a brief jump in Btotal from an already elevated 10nT background (due to waning influence from previous IPS 2025-06-01T05:22Z) to 12.4nT, rising to around 14.5nT by 2025-06-02T20:29Z. Also observed a distinct rise in solar wind speed from around 580 km/s to around 660 km/s at this time, with a small elevation in temperature and density timelines at the start of this signature. This may be the arrival of CME 2025-05-31T14:23Z expected at 2025-06-02T22:43Z (+-7 hours), analysis is ongoing for this signature and if that CME may have been observed as part of earlier IPS 2025-06-01T05:22Z instead.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-01T01:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-02T22:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.72", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39228/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-05-31T14:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=0.0, Lat.=4.0, Speed=680.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2025-05-31T19:29Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-02T22:43Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =16.2 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-02T01:42Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-02T20:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_192900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-01T01:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-02T22:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-01T01:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-02T22:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-05-31T00:15Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T05:22Z", "maxKP" : 8.0, "dstMin" : -121, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Full-halo CME first seen in GOES-19 CCOR-1. Also seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 after the beginning of a downlink period with data streaming in starting at about 2025-05-31T01:00Z. No STEREO A COR2 imagery was available in real time for this CME due to a data gap which began at 2025-05-30T19:09Z. The source is an M8.1 flare from AR 14100 (N12E12). A significant area of opening field lines and dimming can be seen from near AR 14100 (N12E12) in SDO AIA 193/171/131/304 and GOES SUVI 284/304 beginning at 2025-05-30T23:47Z, immediately after the flare. Dimming and field line movement extends along a nearby filament which spans across most of the Earth-facing disk, stretching from approximately N30E05 to S15W35, snaking through the entire NW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk in a shape resembling the number '3'. It appears that most of the filamentary material ejected is from the upper lobe of the '3', and departs from approximately N10W15. This filament is also located directly next to, and runs parallel to, the SWPC-numbered Coronal Hole 52. Arrival signature: characterized by a sharp significant jump in B_total from ~7nT to above 24nT and by a jump in solar wind speed from the already elevated (by the preceding coronal high speed stream) ~700 km/s to over 1100 km/s. Ion temperature also has a significant temporary increase and there is a rather mediocre increase in ion density preceding this arrival, followed by a drop in density. After the initial shock/sheath there is a smooth rotation of magnetic field components (seen after 2025-06-01T12Z), indicating the possible start of a flux rope. There are also two more potential flux ropes seen in this 2-day solar wind signature down the road, likely indicating that there were three CMEs combined in a single front. This fast halo CME was predicted to potentially combine with (catch up) two slower, preceding, Earth-directed CMEs.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T12:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T06:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.92", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1580.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1664.18\nAcceleration: -6.13993\nDuration in seconds: 100700.60\nDuration in days: 1.1655162\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -6.14 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 1045.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/06/2025 Time: 06:23 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T12:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T04:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.63, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.44, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.82", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/05/31 00:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 03:30Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 04:10Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:40\nPOS Midpoint: 03:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 3:50\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.5\nTravel Time: ~7.5 * 3:50 = 28:45\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-06-01T04:45Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/05/31 04:55Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T12:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T12:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.52", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Psyche, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-05-31T12:51:58Z\n## Message ID: 20250531-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-05-31T00:15Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1302 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 47 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -9/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy (glancing blow), Psyche, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-06-04T09:12Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-05-31T21:39Z, and STEREO A at 2025-06-01T15:15Z, and the flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2025-06-07T00:00Z and Mars at 2025-06-04T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-06-01T12:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 8-9 (severe to extreme).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001) is associated with the M8.1 flare from Active Region 14100 (N12E12) with ID 2025-05-30T23:31:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-05-31T00:05Z (see notifications 20250531-AL-001, 20250531-AL-002).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T13:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.37", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T15:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T13:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.78", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39196/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-05-30T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=502.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T13:28Z\n2025-05-30T12:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=-26.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T19:16Z\n2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=1302.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2025-05-31T02:32Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-01T13:24Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =16.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.7\n(kp)90=8\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-05-31T22:12Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-01T15:26Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-04T06:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T17:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T10:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.33", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-31 01:13\n - Time at C2: 2025-05-31 00:15\n - Radial speed: 2371.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N07W05\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 1117.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-06-01 10:19 (i.e. predicted transit time: 34.07 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T18:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T07:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.58, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.58, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "10.40", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): -2.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 46.0\n\ninitial CME speed: 1836.5 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2025-05-31T01:52Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T19:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "9.87", "predictionNote" : "# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images from 01:36 on May 31. This CME was associated with a long duration M8.1 flare (SIDC Flare 4506) peaking on May 31 at 00:05 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4100). This event was associated with a Type II radio emission. The CME has an estimated speed of over 1300 km/s and is expected to be Earth directed. Analysis is ongoing for an estimated arrival time but initial analysis suggests this could arrive at Earth from late on June 1.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-01T04:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T10:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.667, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.617, "confidenceInPercentage" : 97.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "0.85", "predictionNote" : "Note:\nThere is no associated notification for this ensemble result. Details which are normally included in a notification are available below. There is also a known typo in the original control file of this ensemble simulation which produced a false miss. The T@21.5Rs in the control file had a typo of 2025-05-21 instead of 2025-05-31 which caused the associated CME parameters to not be included in the results of the ensemble simulation below.\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250531-AL-008). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2025-06-01T09:56Z and 2025-06-01T18:44Z (average arrival 2025-06-01T14:09Z) for 97% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-06-01T06:51Z and 2025-06-01T14:08Z (average arrival 2025-06-01T10:31Z) for 97% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 8-9 range (severe to extreme).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/Detailed_results_20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-01T20:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T09:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 97.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.16667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14.97", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-06-01T20:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T10:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 98.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14.97", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-05-30T12:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-05-30T12:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T05:22Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Hazy CME first seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-05-30T12:53Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this CME appears to be continued dimming and field line movement following a wide eruption associated with an M3.4 class flare from AR 4100. These features can be seen clearly in SDO AIA 211. This CME overlaps with earlier CME: 2025-05-30T06:38Z which is associated with the M3.4 flare, where as this event is more associated with the subsequent dimming following the flare. Arrival signature: characterized by a sharp significant jump in B_total from ~7nT to above 24nT and by jump in solar wind speed from the already elevated (by the preceding coronal high speed stream) ~700 km/s to over 1100 km/s. Ion temperature also has a significant temporary increase and there is a rather mediocre increase in ion density, followed by a drop in density. There is a smooth rotation of magnetic field components seen further in the signature (after 2025-06-01T12Z), indicating possible start of a flux rope (there are also two more potential flux ropes seen in the 2-day solar wind signature). This CME would likely have been swept by the front of the following, much faster, 2025-05-31T00:15Z CME, the combined front arriving early.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-30T16:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-02T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.40", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39172/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-05-30T12:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=-26.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T19:16Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-02T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-01T03:00Z\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-06T06:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_191600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-30T17:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.87", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39174/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-05-30T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=502.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T13:28Z\n2025-05-30T12:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=-26.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T19:16Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-02T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-05-31T20:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-30T22:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-02T10:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.34, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.06, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "29.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.50", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/05/30 13:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 21:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 01:50Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:20\nPOS Midpoint: 23:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:40\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.59\nTravel Time: ~6.59 * 10:40 = 70:20\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-06-02T10:40Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/05/30 22:51Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T06:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T19:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.37", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 1300 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 600 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 10 deg\n\nPredicted transit time = 43.9 ± 12.1 h\nPredicted Vmax = 730 ± 170 km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T15:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T13:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.78", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39196/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-05-30T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=502.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T13:28Z\n2025-05-30T12:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=-26.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T19:16Z\n2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=1302.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2025-05-31T02:32Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-01T13:24Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =16.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.7\n(kp)90=8\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-05-31T22:12Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-01T15:26Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-04T06:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T15:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T23:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 78.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T15:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 78.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-05-30T06:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-05-30T06:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T05:22Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME with hazy leading edge first seen in the East by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-05-30T06:38Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is an M3.4 class flare from AR 4100 (N05E21) as seen in SDO AIA 131. A wide area of dimming is also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211, along with field line opening seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. Arrival signature: characterized by a sharp significant jump in B_total from ~7nT to above 24nT and by jump in solar wind speed from the already elevated (by the preceding coronal high speed stream) ~700 km/s to over 1100 km/s. Ion temperature also has a significant temporary increase and there is a rather mediocre increase in ion density, followed by a drop in density. There is a smooth rotation of magnetic field components seen further in the signature (after 2025-06-01T12Z), indicating possible start of a flux rope (there are also two more potential flux ropes seen in the 2-day solar wind signature). This CME would likely have been swept by the front of the following, much faster, 2025-05-31T00:15Z CME, the combined front arriving early.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-30T12:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.58", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39162/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-05-30T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=502.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T13:28Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-01T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-05-31T20:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-02T00:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-30T16:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.53", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-05-30T12:15Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 650\nLongitude (deg): 27E\nLatitude (deg): 5N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 29\n\nNotes: Possible glancing blow\nSpace weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-30T17:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-02T06:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.37", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-30 13:28\n - Time at C2: 2025-05-30 06:38\n - Radial speed: 502.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 34 deg\n - Eruption location: N01E24\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: C1.5 (N05E11). Peak at 2025-05-30 05:31\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 553.27 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-06-02 06:13 (i.e. predicted transit time: 71.60 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-30T17:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.87", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39174/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-05-30T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=502.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T13:28Z\n2025-05-30T12:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=-26.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T19:16Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-02T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-05-31T20:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-30T22:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-02T11:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.19, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.51, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "29.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.70", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/05/30 06:30Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 15:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 17:10Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:10\nPOS Midpoint: 16:05Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:35\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.99\nTravel Time: ~7.99 * 9:35 = 76:33\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-06-02T11:03Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/05/30 22:39Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T15:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T13:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.78", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39196/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-05-30T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=502.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T13:28Z\n2025-05-30T12:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=-26.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T19:16Z\n2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=1302.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2025-05-31T02:32Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-01T13:24Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =16.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.7\n(kp)90=8\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-05-31T22:12Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-01T15:26Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-04T06:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T15:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T23:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-31T15:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-06-01T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-05-12T23:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-05-12T23:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-05-16T20:10Z", "maxKP" : 6.33, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright loop CME first seen in the North by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-05-12T23:48Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is two very large filament eruption, one seen on the Earth facing disk, and the other on the far side. The Earth facing filament has footpoints at approx. N20W50 and N50E60, where as the far sided filament appears to be just beyond the NW limb. These filaments are best seen in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304, along with dimming and field line opening seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. In coronagraphs, the on disk eruption appears to over shadow the far sided eruption, and they appear as one feature. Complex arrival signature characterized by a gradual increase in B total from 7 nT to eventually 22 nT, accompanied by rotation of two or more magnetic field components (with periods of negative Bz) and by a gradual increase of solar wind speeds from just over 400 km/s to initially 550 and eventually to over 700 km/s. Around 2025-05-17T04:10Z there is a short pileup followed by a decrease in ion density and a very fast rotation of magnetic field components.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-13T11:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-05-16T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "80.47", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50513\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 May 2025, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 13 May 2025 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 May 2025 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2025 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 019\n\n...\n\nCoronal mass ejections: ... A wide CME directed to the north was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around\n01:00 UTC on May 13. The CME is most likely associated with a long filament eruption observed in AIA 304 data around 23:00 UTC on May 12 near the central meridian in mid-latitude north hemisphere. This CME is expected to arrive at Earth starting from the UTC afternoon on May 16.\n\n...\n\nNOTE: This CME prediction is associated with a CME start time of 2025-05-13T01:00Z." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-13T12:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-05-16T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.53", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38839/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-05-12T23:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=46.0, Speed=428.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2025-05-13T08:40Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-05-16T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-05-16T10:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250513_084000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-13T14:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-05-16T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "77.43", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50513\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 May 2025, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 13 May 2025 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 May 2025 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2025 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 019\n\n...\n\nCoronal mass ejections: ... A wide CME directed to the north was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around\n01:00 UTC on May 13. The CME is most likely associated with a long filament eruption observed in AIA 304 data around 23:00 UTC on May 12 near the central meridian in mid-latitude north hemisphere. This CME is expected to arrive at Earth starting from the UTC afternoon on May 16.\n\n...\n\nNOTE: This CME prediction is associated with a CME start time of 2025-05-12T23:36Z." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-13T23:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-05-17T13:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.45, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.47, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.85", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/05/13 01:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 10:00Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 17:00Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPOS Difference: 7:00\nPOS Midpoint: 13:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.67\nTravel Time: ~8.67 * 12:30 = 108:22\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-05-17T13:22Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/05/13 23:16Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-15T00:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-05-16T19:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 58.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-05-15T00:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-05-16T19:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-04-22T08:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-04-22T08:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-04-24T06:10Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Two heavily overlapping flux rope CMEs from the same source seen to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is two instances of significant dimming and opening field lines seen from the same location, AR 4065 (S31E10), starting at 2025-04-22T06:37Z then at 2025-04-22T07:24Z. There appears to be southern deflection in the UV imagery. Post eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2025-04-22T08:13Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-22T16:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-24T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.47", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38510/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-04-22T08:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=-40.0, Speed=1583.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2025-04-22T10:47Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-04-24T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-23T03:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-24T08:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-22T22:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-24T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.67", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:22/1115 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1290\nLongitude (deg): W04\nLatitude (deg): S38\nHalf-angular width (deg): 25\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-23T06:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-24T09:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 17.2, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 17.2, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.17", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 1200 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 500 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 2 deg" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-23T07:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-24T14:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-23T07:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-24T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-04-13T08:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T16:36Z", "maxKP" : 7.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint loop CME seen to the E in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. This CME overlaps heavily with the large filament eruption CME:2025-04-13T08:00Z. Source is a bit uncertain, but a candidate source is dimming seen near AR 4060 (N09E30) spanning from N00 to N15 and E20 to E30, starting around 2025-04-13T07:00Z in SDO AIA 193. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T02:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T22:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.25", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38372/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=619.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2025-04-13T13:35Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-04-15T22:16Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =12.4 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-17T16:00Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-17T02:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T12:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.63", "predictionNote" : "4-CME simulation.\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (BepiColombo, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-14T12:58:16Z\n## Message ID: 20250414-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250413-AL-002). The 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 halo CME was reanalyzed in more detail and two additional fronts were included in the current simulation (see CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, and 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 below). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T16:57Z and STEREO A at 2025-04-16T02:50Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have an impact at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-15T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n\nCME parameters:\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T00:12Z; parameters were not updated.\n\nEstimated speed: ~485 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:00Z, parameters have been updated.\n\nEstimated speed: ~777 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -12/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001\n\n\n3: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~619 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -37/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001\n\n\n4: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T07:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~483 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T17:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T20:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T17:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T20:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-04-13T08:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T16:36Z", "maxKP" : 7.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "A southeastern halo with a very complex system of several fronts that seem to be moving/expanding in unison. It is difficult to differentiate the bulk vs. shock components of the CME. There seems to be the more dense more southern part to the SW and also a fainter more 'halo' front. The source is a filament erupting starting 2025-04-13T05:00ZZ, stretching from S30E01 to S15W25 as seen in SDO AIA 304 (with more minor dimming reaching S01W30 as seen in SDO AIA 193), and centered ~S18W15. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-13T15:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "26.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.18", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIGRAM 50413\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Apr 2025, 1300UT\n...\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A long filament crossing the central meridian to\nthe east of the disc center has erupted around 23:00 UTC on April 12. An\nassociated south-eastward wide coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in\nthe LASCO/C2 and C3 imagery. The possible impact on Earth related to this\neruption is currently being analysed. A neighbouring filament eruption to\nthe south of SIDC Sunspot Group 398 (NOAA Active Region 4056) has occurred\nin the early UTC morning on April 13. An associated fast partial halo CME\nwas visible in LASCO/C2 data around 08:24 UTC. The CME is expected to reach\nthe Earth. Further analysis for the expected arrival time is ongoing,\npossibly as early as April 15th.\n\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50414\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Apr 2025, 1230UT\n....\nGeomagnetism:\nMostly unsettled to active conditions are\nexpected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, with a chance for\nmoderate storm intervals due to the possible early arrival of the\nInterplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) associated with the CME that\nlifted off around 23:00 UTC on April 12 and the partial halo CME that\nlifted off around 08:30 UTC on April 13.\n\n\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50415\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Apr 2025, 1230UT\n...Moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp\n6, K BEL 6), with possible major storm intervals (NOAA Kp 7, K BEL 7), are\nexpected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, due to the expected\narrival of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) associated\nwith the CME that lifted off around 23:00 UTC on April 12 and the partial\nhalo CME that lifted off around 08:30 UTC on April 13.\n\n---------------------------\nFrom: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nDate: Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 12:25 PM\nSubject: CME arrival alert\n\nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2025-04-16T19:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 4\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 30\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n sidctech@oma.be\n \n \n 2025-04-13T16:25:30\n \n \n 487\n \n 0\n \n CME_arrival\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2025-04-16T19:00:00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-13T16:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.78", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Apr 14 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n...\nTwo filament eruptions were observed. The first was approximately 20\ndegrees long, centered near S20E20, and began erupting after ~12/2130\nUTC. The second filament was approximately 12 degrees long, centered\nnear S22W09, and began erupting after ~13/0500 UTC. CME signatures were\nobserved in subsequent coronagraph imagery following each event.\nInitial analysis and modeling indicated a likely Earth-directed\ncomponent, with anticipated arrival at Earth near midday on 16 Apr.\n\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Apr 14 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n.Forecast...\nQuiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with isolated active periods\nlikely, on 14-15 Apr as CH influence wanes. An increase in geomagnetic\nactivity is likely on 16 Apr, with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels\nare likely, in response the anticipated arrival of the CMEs that left\nthe Sun on 13 Apr.\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Apr 15 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is\nlikely to become enhanced to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic\nstorm levels 16 Apr due to the arrival of the aforementioned CME (see\nSolar Wind section). Merging of the two CMEs increases chances for\nhigher activity resulting in a slight chance to reach G3 (Strong) storm\nlevels during this time." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-13T19:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T14:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.18", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38356/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=751.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2025-04-13T11:52Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-04-15T14:22Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =17.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.4\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-15T17:35Z\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-14T10:00Z\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-18T00:00Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-17T08:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-13T22:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T13:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.30", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, Psyche, STEREO A, BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-13T22:18:04Z\n## Message ID: 20250413-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-04-13T00:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~485 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~751 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -9/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy (glancing blow), Psyche (minor impact), STEREO A, BepiColombo (glancing blow), Europa Clipper (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 will reach Psyche at 2025-04-19T20:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-04-15T17:02Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 may reach Lucy at 2025-04-18T00:00Z, BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T10:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-04-17T18:00Z, and Mars at 2025-04-17T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-15T13:36Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T04:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T15:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.75", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38377/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-12.0, Lat.=-34.0, Speed=777.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2025-04-13T11:58Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-04-15T15:12Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =18.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.2\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_115800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T07:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T10:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.88, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.33, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.02", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/04/13 07:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 17:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 17:50Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:50\nPOS Midpoint: 17:25Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:05\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.44\nTravel Time: ~7.44 * 10:05 = 75:01\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-04-16T10:21Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/04/13 19:23Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T07:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.92", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2025-04-16T00:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nMax Kp Range: 5-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T07:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.77", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-04-13T12:11Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 770\nLongitude (deg): W005\nLatitude (deg): S07\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes: Complex CME analysis - modelled as two components. The other SE directed portion attributed to 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T09:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T22:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.60", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 777.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 839.495\nAcceleration: -1.60242\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 225105.42\nDuration in days: 2.6053868\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.60 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 478.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 15/04/2025 Time: 22:31 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T09:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T03:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.45", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 777.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 467.511\nAcceleration: 1.16024\nDuration in seconds: 243686.62\nDuration in days: 2.8204470\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.16 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 750.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/04/2025 Time: 03:41 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T10:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T02:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.38", "predictionNote" : "ME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-04-13 11:58\n - Time at C2: 2025-04-13 08:00\n - Radial speed: 777.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 35 deg\n - Eruption location: S34E12\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 639.10 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-04-15 21:13 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.22 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T12:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.63", "predictionNote" : "4-CME simulation.\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (BepiColombo, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-14T12:58:16Z\n## Message ID: 20250414-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250413-AL-002). The 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 halo CME was reanalyzed in more detail and two additional fronts were included in the current simulation (see CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, and 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 below). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T16:57Z and STEREO A at 2025-04-16T02:50Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have an impact at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-15T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n\nCME parameters:\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T00:12Z; parameters were not updated.\n\nEstimated speed: ~485 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:00Z, parameters have been updated.\n\nEstimated speed: ~777 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -12/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001\n\n\n3: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~619 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -37/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001\n\n\n4: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T07:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~483 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T13:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T19:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.42, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.42, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.27", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters: \nApex direction (deg): -12.0 longitude, -34.0 latitude \nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 \nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35.0 \ninitial CME speed: 777.0 (+/- 50) km/s \ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun \ninitial time: 2025-04-13T11:58Z \ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s \ntime step: 10 min \nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvoHI", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T16:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T11:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.53, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 2.53, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.23", "predictionNote" : "HI kinematics derived from Beacon2Science data product from the Austrian Space Weather Office (ASWO) was used (see https://helioforecast.space/cme).\nDirection of motion from FPF fitting: 44° from STEREO-A, i.e. -1° from Earth.\nWidth in ecliptic plane is varied between 42 and 62°.\n\nNo coronagraph data used.\n\n------ELEvoHI ensemble modelling------\nTargets:\n ========\n STEREO-A\n --------\n Arrival Probability: 76 %\n Deterministic Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-17 09:28 +/- 7.0 hours\n Mean Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-17 12:15 +/- 7.0 hours\n Median Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-17 08:03 +/- 7.0 hours\n Mean Arrival Speed: 381 +/- 59 km/s\n --------\n ========\n Venus\n --------\n Arrival Probability: 100 %\n Deterministic Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-15 15:18 +/- 4.96 hours\n Mean Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-15 16:55 +/- 4.96 hours\n Median Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-15 15:33 +/- 4.96 hours\n Mean Arrival Speed: 465 +/- 32 km/s\n --------\n ========\n L1\n --------\n Arrival Probability: 100 %\n Deterministic Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-16 11:38 +/- 3.02 hours\n Mean Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-16 12:08 +/- 3.02 hours\n Median Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-16 11:48 +/- 3.02 hours\n Mean Arrival Speed: 500 +/- 15 km/s\n --------\n ========\n Mars\n --------\n Arrival Probability: 93 %\n Deterministic Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-19 17:58 +/- 7.02 hours\n Mean Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-20 03:47 +/- 7.02 hours\n Median Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-19 21:33 +/- 7.02 hours\n Mean Arrival Speed: 415 +/- 53 km/s\n --------\n ========\n Mercury\n --------\n Arrival Probability: 44 %\n Deterministic Arrival Time [UT]: No hit! +/- 7.21 hours\n Mean Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-15 14:34 +/- 7.21 hours\n Median Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-15 10:33 +/- 7.21 hours\n Mean Arrival Speed: 321 +/- 64 km/s\n --------\n ========\n BepiColombo\n --------\n Arrival Probability: 24 %\n Deterministic Arrival Time [UT]: No hit! +/- 6.66 hours\n Mean Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-15 22:09 +/- 6.66 hours\n Median Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-15 17:33 +/- 6.66 hours\n Mean Arrival Speed: 285 +/- 62 km/s\n --------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvoHI", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-15T07:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T09:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.08, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 2.26, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "8.62", "predictionNote" : "HI kinematics derived from Beacon2Science data product from the Austrian Space Weather Office (ASWO) -> see https://helioforecast.space/cme.\nDirection of motion from FPF fitting: 39 (+/-10) deg from STEREO-A, i.e. W4 deg from Earth.\nWidth in ecliptic plane is varied between 45 and 65 deg.\n\nNo coronagraph data used.\n\n\n------ELEvoHI ensemble modelling------\n\n ========\n L1\n --------\n Arrival Probability: 100 %\n Deterministic Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-16 09:38 +/- 2.67 hours\n Mean Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-16 09:13 +/- 2.67 hours\n Median Arrival Time [UT]: 2025-04-16 09:48 +/- 2.67 hours\n Mean Arrival Speed: 516 +/- 14 km/s\n --------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-15T12:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T22:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "3.62", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-15T12:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T00:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 78.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.88889, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "3.62", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-04-13T07:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T16:36Z", "maxKP" : 7.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint and wide loop CME seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as an extremely faint halo in STEREO A COR2. Source is a portion of filamentary material seen twisting as it lifts off at S20W30, which is the western-most side of the large filament eruption seen occurring around 2024-04-13T07:00Z. Liftoff of filamentary material is seen in SDO AIA 304 at 2024-04-13T07:10Z and dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193 at 2024-04-13T07:46Z, both from S20W30. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T01:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T06:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.12", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38370/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=29.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=483.0, HalfAngle=52.0, Time21.5=2025-04-13T15:41Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-04-16T06:22Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =16.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.3\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-14T16:32Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-16T04:23Z\nJuice with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-16T10:00Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-15T10:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_154100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T03:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T10:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.88, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.33, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.48", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/04/13 07:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 17:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 17:50Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:50\nPOS Midpoint: 17:25Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:05\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.44\nTravel Time: ~7.44 * 10:05 = 75:01\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-04-16T10:21Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/04/13 19:23Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T07:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.95", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2025-04-16T00:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nMax Kp Range: 5-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T07:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.77", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-04-13T12:28Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 757\nLongitude (deg): E009\nLatitude (deg): S27\nHalf-angular width (deg): 43\n\nNotes: Complex CME analysis: Modelled as 2 CMEs, the other attributed to CME: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T12:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.63", "predictionNote" : "4-CME simulation.\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (BepiColombo, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-14T12:58:16Z\n## Message ID: 20250414-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250413-AL-002). The 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 halo CME was reanalyzed in more detail and two additional fronts were included in the current simulation (see CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, and 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 below). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T16:57Z and STEREO A at 2025-04-16T02:50Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have an impact at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-15T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n\nCME parameters:\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T00:12Z; parameters were not updated.\n\nEstimated speed: ~485 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:00Z, parameters have been updated.\n\nEstimated speed: ~777 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -12/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001\n\n\n3: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~619 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -37/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001\n\n\n4: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T07:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~483 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T17:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T01:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T17:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-04-13T00:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T16:36Z", "maxKP" : 7.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "SE halo (especially in SOHO) CME, with the start obscured by the nighttime data gap in STEREO A but available from the start in SOHO LASCO. The CME is partly obscured in C3 imagery by the pylon. The CME is directed to the SE in COR2A (as seen after the gap). The source of this CME is a filament eruption extending from N10E15 to S30E15, as seen in SDO AIA 304, 193, 171 and GOES SUVI 284, 304. Post-eruptive arcades are also seen in STEREO A EUV imagery after the end of data gap. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-13T14:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.87", "predictionNote" : "4-CME simulation.\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38350/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-15.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=485.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2025-04-13T07:04Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-04-15T19:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-13T16:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-17T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "43.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.18", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIGRAM 50413\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Apr 2025, 1300UT\n...\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A long filament crossing the central meridian to\nthe east of the disc center has erupted around 23:00 UTC on April 12. An\nassociated south-eastward wide coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in\nthe LASCO/C2 and C3 imagery. The possible impact on Earth related to this\neruption is currently being analysed. A neighbouring filament eruption to\nthe south of SIDC Sunspot Group 398 (NOAA Active Region 4056) has occurred\nin the early UTC morning on April 13. An associated fast partial halo CME\nwas visible in LASCO/C2 data around 08:24 UTC. The CME is expected to reach\nthe Earth. Further analysis for the expected arrival time is ongoing,\npossibly as early as April 15th.\n\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50414\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Apr 2025, 1230UT\n....\nGeomagnetism:\nMostly unsettled to active conditions are\nexpected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, with a chance for\nmoderate storm intervals due to the possible early arrival of the\nInterplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) associated with the CME that\nlifted off around 23:00 UTC on April 12 and the partial halo CME that\nlifted off around 08:30 UTC on April 13.\n\n\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50415\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Apr 2025, 1230UT\n...Moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp\n6, K BEL 6), with possible major storm intervals (NOAA Kp 7, K BEL 7), are\nexpected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, due to the expected\narrival of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) associated\nwith the CME that lifted off around 23:00 UTC on April 12 and the partial\nhalo CME that lifted off around 08:30 UTC on April 13.\n\n---------------------------\n\nFrom: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nDate: Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 12:29 PM\nSubject: CME arrival alert\nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2025-04-17T12:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 5\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 7\nprobability_of_arrival: 60\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n sidctech@oma.be\n \n \n 2025-04-13T16:29:02\n \n \n 488\n \n 0\n \n CME_arrival\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2025-04-17T12:00:00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-13T17:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-17T23:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 13.26, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.64, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "54.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.45", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/04/12 22:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 14:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:40\nPOS Midpoint: 15:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 17:10\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: \nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.04\nTravel Time: ~7.04 * 17:10 = 120:50\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-04-17T23:30Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/04/13 16:08Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-13T22:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T13:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.30", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, Psyche, STEREO A, BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-13T22:18:04Z\n## Message ID: 20250413-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-04-13T00:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~485 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~751 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -9/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy (glancing blow), Psyche (minor impact), STEREO A, BepiColombo (glancing blow), Europa Clipper (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 will reach Psyche at 2025-04-19T20:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-04-15T17:02Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 may reach Lucy at 2025-04-18T00:00Z, BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T10:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-04-17T18:00Z, and Mars at 2025-04-17T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-15T13:36Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070500_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T12:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.63", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (BepiColombo, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-14T12:58:16Z\n## Message ID: 20250414-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250413-AL-002). The 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 halo CME was reanalyzed in more detail and two additional fronts were included in the current simulation (see CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, and 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 below). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T16:57Z and STEREO A at 2025-04-16T02:50Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have an impact at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-15T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n\nCME parameters:\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T00:12Z; parameters were not updated.\n\nEstimated speed: ~485 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:00Z, parameters have been updated.\n\nEstimated speed: ~777 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -12/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001\n\n\n3: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~619 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -37/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001\n\n\n4: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T07:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~483 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-14T13:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T16:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 15.17, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 15.17, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.23", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters: \nApex direction (deg): -15.0 longitude, -22.0 latitude \nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 \nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 30.0 \ninitial CME speed: 485.0 (+/- 50) km/s \ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun \ninitial time: 2025-04-13T07:04Z \ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s \ntime step: 10 min \nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-15T12:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T13:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "3.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-15T12:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T05:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "3.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-04-12T00:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T16:36Z", "maxKP" : 7.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the north of STEREO A COR2. The potential source is activity from the vicinity of ARs 4055 (approx. N06W52) and 4058 (approx. N15W53) characterized by brightening best seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2025-04-11T23:13Z and opening/moving field lines best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is not seen in STEREO A EUV imagery due to a data gap. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-12T20:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.85", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38334/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=32.0, Lat.=23.0, Speed=437.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2025-04-12T11:36Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-04-15T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-13T16:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-15T02:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250412_113600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-13T03:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-16T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.52", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 12/1654 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 237\nLongitude (deg): 31\nLatitude (deg): 23\nHalf-angular width (deg): 237\n\nNotes:\nIt looked like there were two eruptions from the same source that blend in to one CME. I based my model off the first one, which erupted from about 11/1800UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-13T03:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T18:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-04-13T03:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-15T18:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-03-28T15:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-03-31T10:16Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This event is visible to the east/northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is still developing and only early imagery is available as a result. The source is related to an eruption and X1.1 flare from Active Region 14046 starting around 2025-03-28T15:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A subsequent wide opening of field lines can be observed in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery at this time as well.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-29T00:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-31T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.38", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX, BepiColombo, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-29T00:53:59Z\n## Message ID: 20250329-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-03-28T15:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1942 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 48 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -81/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX, BepiColombo (glancing blow), and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-03-31T16:18Z, Mars at 2025-03-31T09:42Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-29T12:38Z. The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-29T16:00Z, and Lucy at 2025-04-01T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-31T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-29T01:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-30T02:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.60", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38081/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-48.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=2212.0, HalfAngle=48.0, Time21.5=2025-03-28T17:00Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-03-30T02:32Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =41.1 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-29T07:19Z\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-31T01:29Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-31T07:57Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-30T18:33Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-30T08:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-30T17:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_170000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-29T04:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-30T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.27", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 28/1721 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1829\nLongitude (deg): 15\nLatitude (deg): -61\nHalf-angular width (deg): 50\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-29T14:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-31T03:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.27, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.84, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.12", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/03/28 15:25Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 18:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 01:00Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 7:00\nPOS Midpoint: 21:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:05\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.92\nTravel Time: ~9.92 * 6:05 = 60:22\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-03-31T03:47Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/03/29 13:47Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-30T00:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-31T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.67", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38092/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-86.0, Lat.=19.0, Speed=1838.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2025-03-28T17:27Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-03-31T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-29T15:05Z\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-01T14:00Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-02T12:00Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-01T04:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-30T01:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-30T21:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.72", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-30T01:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-31T03:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.72", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-03-27T04:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-03-27T04:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-04-01T17:29Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME to the northeast with a somewhat fuzzy loop-like front that is slightly brighter in the first couple images in STEREO A COR2. The source is not clear but the fit with two coronagraphs suggests AR 4043, indicating that the source could have been a C3.9 flare centered somewhat NW of AR 4043 (N15E40) and peaking at 2025-03-27T03:12Z. There are no significant coronal signatures except for the flare itself seen in SDO AIA 131. This CME with low confidence may have arrived at Earth as a minor interplanetary shock near 2025-04-01T17:29Z as a small but rapid magnetic field enhancement and not much variation in the wind speed.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-27T13:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-01T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "123.93", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38043/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-03-27T04:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=269.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2025-03-27T17:25Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-04-01T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-04T12:00Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-03T12:00Z\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-04T04:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-04T00:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-27T15:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-01T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "121.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-27T15:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-04-01T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "121.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-03-21T16:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-03-21T16:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-03-23T23:30Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint halo CME with a bulk visible mainly to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery (more easily seen in difference imagery). There is no STEREO A COR2 imagery for this event due to a data gap. The source of this CME appears to be a large dimming region centered near N02E07 starting around 2025-03-21T15:49Z with a southeast directionality based on the minor EUV wave visible in SDO/AIA 211 and 193 imagery. There's a large coronal hole situated E/SE of the dimming region and a separate coronal hole due west of the dimming region which may have contributed to the deflection visible on the solar disk in SDO/AIA imagery. This source location appears to be a sympathetic eruption to the M1.2 flare from AR14028 (S17W33) seen to the SW in SDO/AIA 131 imagery. || Arrival: Characterized by an initially slow rise in Btotal from 7.12nT to 9.65nT at 2025-03-24T00:16Z, a shock up to 12.44nT at 2025-03-24T00:16Z, and further rise to a peak Btotal of 16.8nT at 2025-03-24T01:14Z. Bz was largely neutral with several periods of sustained southward values around -5 to -10 nT, reaching a peak -9.82 nT at 2025-03-24T01:21Z. Solar wind speed rose from around 360 km/s to 390 km/s, briefly dipped down to around 350 km/s, then rose to a peak of around 430 km/s. Density rose from around 6 p/cc to a peak of 35.3 p/cc at 2025-03-24T04:40Z. Temperature data did not respond much to this arrival signature, remaining largely level. This is likely the late arrival of CME 2025-03-21T16:00Z, anticipated to give Earth a glancing blow at 2025-03-23T07:30Z (+- 7 hours).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-21T23:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-23T07:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.35", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Lucy, Mars, Europa Clipper, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-21T23:09:07Z\n## Message ID: 20250321-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-03-21T16:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1990 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -22/-24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-03-21T16:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, Lucy, Mars, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-22T05:02Z, Lucy at 2025-03-24T19:34Z, Mars at 2025-03-24T21:26Z, and the flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-03-25T03:30Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-22T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-23T07:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-21T16:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_173100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_173100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_173100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_173100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_173100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_173100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_173100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_173100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-21T23:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-22T14:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 9.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-32.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.02", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/37953/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-03-21T16:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-7.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=3032.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2025-03-21T16:41Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-03-22T14:51Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =13.7 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.7\n(kp)90=9\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-21T22:21Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-24T00:38Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-24T06:19Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-21T23:00Z\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-24T09:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-23T01:30Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250321_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-21T23:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-23T22:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.29, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.89, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.00", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/03/21 15:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 22:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 23:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:50\nPOS Midpoint: 23:05Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:25\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.44\nTravel Time: ~7.44 * 7:25 = 55:11\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-03-23T22:51Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n*** This prediction may be updated if better imagery becomes available.\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/03/21 22:46Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-22T01:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-23T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.50", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Mar 22 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\n...A fast, but faint, partial halo CME associated with dimming observed in\nGOES-16 195 Angstroms in the vicinity of Region 4034 (S11W23, Axx/alpha)\nwas first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately\n21/1600 UTC. Modeling of this event determined an arrival at Earth by\nearly 23 Mar. An additional CME first seen in LASCO C2 coronagraph\nimagery at approximately 22/0726 UTC was determined to have originated\nfrom beyond the NE limb and therefore is not Earth-directed.\n\nGeospace\n\n.Forecast...\nUnsettled to active conditions are expected, with a chance for G1\n(Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, for the remainder of 22 Mar.\nIsolated G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 23 Mar due to the\narrival of a fast, but faint CME that left the Sun on 21 Mar. G1 (Minor)\ngeomagnetic storming is likely on 24 Mar as lingering CME and negative\npolarity CH HSS effects wane.\n\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2025 Mar 22 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\n...NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 22-Mar 24 2025\n\n Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24\n00-03UT 5.67 (G2) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1)\n03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 7.00 (G3) 4.33 \n06-09UT 3.00 6.00 (G2) 3.67 \n09-12UT 3.00 5.00 (G1) 3.00 \n12-15UT 4.00 4.33 2.33 \n15-18UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 2.67 \n18-21UT 3.33 5.33 (G1) 2.67 \n21-00UT 4.33 5.33 (G1) 3.00 \n\nRationale: G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 23 Mar due to\nCME arrival. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 24 Mar as CME\nand CH HSS wane." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-22T10:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-23T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.62", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 1200\nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): 47\n\nNotes: Faint but fast. No Stereo imagery but confidence in fit is moderate.\nSpace weather advisor: LH" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-22T10:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-22T20:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.58", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-03-21 16:41\n - Time at C2: 2025-03-21 16:00\n - Radial speed: 3032.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 25 deg\n - Eruption location: S12E07\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 1315.60 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-03-22 20:48 (i.e. predicted transit time: 28.80 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-22T13:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-23T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.97", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIGRAM 50322\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Mar 2025, 1237UT\n\n...Coronal mass ejections: A faint partial halo CME was observed to the south- east in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from March 21 16:00 UTC. This this CME appears to originate from a dimming that occurred near the central meridian around\n15:45 UTC March 21. Initial analysis suggests this CME may have an Earth directed component and may impact Earth from March 23.\nA CME seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data to the south-west from around 17:00 UTC March 21 was likely associated with the M1.2 flare. This CME is not expected to be Earth directed." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-23T16:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-23T07:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.83333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "7.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-23T16:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-23T06:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "7.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-23T16:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-24T01:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.53, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.93, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "7.22", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/03/21 15:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 23:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 00:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:30\nPOS Midpoint: 23:45Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:05\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.13\nTravel Time: ~7.13 * 8:05 = 57:39\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-03-24T01:19Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n*** This prediction is an update to the prior using better available data.\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/03/23 16:05Z" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-03-17T11:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-03-17T11:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-03-21T01:42Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Arrival Notes: Initial interplanetary shock seen at DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-03-21T01:42Z (ACE magnetic field data gap from 2025-03-21T04:00Z to 2025-03-21T09:48Z) characterized by rapid magnetic field rise from 3 to 6 nT, rapid increase in solar wind velocity from 380 km/s to 430 km/s, and simultaneous rises in solar wind density and temperature. A second magnetic field jump >10nT is observed at 2025-03-21T10:10Z, from around 9nT to 12nT with Bz initially mostly northward. In other solar wind components, a small but distinct speed jump from 370 km/s to 390 km/s, brief density spike from 15 p/cc to 22.9 p/cc, returning to 10 p/cc, and a minimal spike in temperature are observed with this second Bt spike. || CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-03-17T11:36Z. Also seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C3 but not visible in STEREO A COR2A imagery (where it would be near center disk from the perspective of STEREO A). The source of this CME is likely a small filament eruption centered around N12W30 which starts around 2025-03-17T10:36Z and is best seen in SDO AIA 304.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-17T20:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-20T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "77.52", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/37871/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-03-17T11:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=400.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2025-03-17T19:39Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-03-20T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-18T23:33Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-20T13:35Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-18T06:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-20T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.95", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-18T06:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-20T15:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.92", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-18T06:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-20T15:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.92", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-03-07T22:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-03-07T22:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-03-10T13:44Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This narrow on-disk CME is seen as a faint flux rope due south in SOHO LASCO C2 and simultaneously as a faint loop to the southeast in STEREO A COR2, which is currently 30 degrees to the west of SOHO LASCO. The source is a subtle eruption from AR 4012 (S20W00) starting at 2025-03-07T21:35Z, seen as dimming, brightening, and field line opening in SDO AIA 193 and 171, as well as GOES SUVI 284 and 304. || Arrival: The very weak passing influence of CME: 2025-03-07T22:12Z detected by ACE at L1 starting at 2025-03-10T13:44Z characterized by a brief period of compression from 2025-03-10T09:50Z to 13:36Z, followed by an inconsistent rotation in the Bx and By components lasting from 2025-03-10T13:44Z to about 2025-03-10T22:16Z. B-total does not become significantly enhanced during this period of rotation, remaining around 5 nT. The density and temperature both do not exhibit any significant increase or decrease.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-08T14:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-11T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.37", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-08T14:22:11Z\n## Message ID: 20250308-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-03-07T22:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1197 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 0/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-03-07T22:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-09T06:49Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-11T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-07T22:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250308_002800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250308_002800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250308_002800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250308_002800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-08T15:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-10T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.73", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-03-08T00:39Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 992\nLongitude (deg): E007\nLatitude (deg): S33\nHalf-angular width (deg): 12\n\nNotes: Low prob of glancing blow. No sig impacts expected.\nSpace weather advisor: Duty Forecaster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-08T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-10T19:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.87, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.73", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/03/07 21:30Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 06:40Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 08:40Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:00\nPOS Midpoint: 07:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:10\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.84\nTravel Time: ~6.84 * 10:10 = 69:32\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-03-10T19:02Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/03/08 15:55Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-09T12:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-10T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.40", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIGRAM 50308\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Mar 2025, 1254UT\n\n...Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images and was detected by CACTus as launched on 7 Sep at 19:48 UTC. However, LASCO-C3/SOHO imagery reveals that it is in fact two different CME, the first launched from an Active Region [AR] at the west solar limb and the second from SIDC Sunspot Group 427 (NOAA AR 4016) and is associated with the M1.6 flare (SIDC flare 3785) registered at 21:00 UTC. Although none of the two CME are partial halo, the later might deliver a glancing blow on 10 Sep due to the AR's location." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-09T13:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-10T15:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.28", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-09T13:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-10T18:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.28", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-03-01T18:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-03-04T17:10Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery with a very bright core mostly on the right side of the CME. The source is a large L-shaped filament eruption stretching from ~S35W10 to ~S15E40 centered around ~S35E20 starting around 2025-03-01T17:00Z. Brightening is visible in SDO/AIA, GOES SUVI, and STEREO A EUVI 304. Dimming, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in GOES SUVI 284 and SDO/AIA 193.\n---\nArrival Notes: Characterized by a slow rise in Bt from around 4nT to a peak of 8.9nT at 2025-03-05T22:23Z. Bz largely swings between northward and southward throughout the signature, briefly sustaining southward around -7.5nT from 2025-03-05T19:38Z-2025-03-05T21:58Z. An small sustained increase in wind speed from around 460km/s to 490km/s is observed alongside an initial temperature and density bump. Speed and temperature slowly decrease as the signature plays out and density slowly increases. This is likely the expected glancing blow of CME 2025-03-01T18:24Z, anticipated at L1 at 2025-03-04T16:00Z (+- 7 hours).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-02T01:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-04T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.77", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-02T01:24:26Z\n## Message ID: 20250302-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-03-01T18:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~566 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -22/-37 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-03T10:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-03-06T18:00Z, Lucy at 2025-03-06T14:00Z, and Mars at 2025-03-06T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-04T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250302_011400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250302_011400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250302_011400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250302_011400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250302_011400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250302_011400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250302_011400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-02T02:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-04T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.72", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-03-02T01:25Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 550\nLongitude (deg): 017E\nLatitude (deg): 34S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 31\n\nNotes: Halfway-house early fit using KW and MTL's Lasco C2 and STEREO A COR2 fits. These differ little, aiding confidence, although CME itself is a glancing blow and very marginal for being a complete miss.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence and Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-02T04:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-04T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.53", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Mar 03 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n...\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were indicative of waning positive polarity CH HSS\ninfluence. Total magnetic field strength reached 9 nT and the Bz\ncomponent was mostly northward throughout the period. Solar wind speeds\ndecreased from ~550 km/s to between ~450-500 km/s over the past 24\nhours. The Phi angle was positive.\n\n.Forecast...\nMostly nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail for the\nremainder of 03 Mar through early 04 Mar. Enhanced conditions are likely\nby midday on 04 Mar, through early 05 Mar, due to the anticipated\narrival of a CME that left the Sun on 01 Mar.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period as\npositive polarity CH HSS influences diminished.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on 03 Mar.\nPeriods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely, with a chance for\nG2 (Moderate) levels, on 04-05 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of a\nCME that left the Sun on 01 Mar.\n\n\n~~~~\n\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Mar 03 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n...\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were indicative waning positive polarity CH HSS\ninfluence. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 2-7 nT and the\nBz component was mostly northward. Solar wind speeds steadily declined\nfrom ~600 km/s to ~445 km/s over the past 24 hours. Phi angle was\npredominantly oriented in the positive sector.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly enhanced over\n03 Mar due to waning positive polarity CH HSS influence. A stronger\nsolar wind enhancement is likely by midday on 04 Mar due to the\nanticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 01 Mar.\n\n~~~~\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Mar 02 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity remained at low levels. The strongest flare of the\nperiod, a C9.5 at 01/2301 UTC, originated from an unseen source on or\nbeyond the SE limb. Region 4007 (S10W24, Dao/beta) continued to exhibit\ngrowth while Region 4009 (N12E01, Dso/beta) began to show signs of \ndecay. New Regions 4011 (S19E51, Axx/alpha), 4012 (S13E68, Cao/beta),\nand 4013 (S04E67, Axx/alpha) were numbered. The remaining regions on the\nvisible disk were either stable or in decay.\n\nOther activity included a filament eruption in the SE quadrant that\nbegan at around 01/1700 UTC. The subsequent CME, first observed in\nLASCO/SOHO C2 imagery at 01/1812 UTC, was analyzed to have an\nEarth-directed component. Model guidance suggests this CME is likely to\narrive at Earth around midday on 04 Mar.\n\n~~~~\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Mar 02 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels. The strongest flare of the period, a\nC9.5, came from a yet-to-be-numbered area near the SE limb at 01/2301\nUTC. Region 4010 (N24E19, Bxo/beta) produced an impulsive C6.4/Sf at\n01/0830 UTC. Region 4009 (N11E10, Dso/beta) and Region 4007 (S10W18,\nDao/beta) both exhibited growth. The remaining numbered active regions\non the visible disk were either mostly stable or in decay. New regions\nof flux were observed rotating on to the SE quadrant.\n\nOther activity included the eruption of a filament channel in the SE\nquadrant, which began around 01/1700 UTC. Subsequent LASCO/SOHO C2\nimagery contained a CME signature beginning at 01/1812 UTC. Analysis and\nmodelling of the event is ongoing to determine if an Earth-directed\ncomponent was produced.\n~~~~" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-02T17:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-06T10:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.02, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "41.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.38", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/03/01 18:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 04:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 10:10Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 5:50\nPOS Midpoint: 07:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 13:05\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.61\nTravel Time: ~8.61 * 13:05 = 112:38\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-03-06T10:48Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/03/02 17:33Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-02T20:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-05T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.62", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50302\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Mar 2025, 1301UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 02 Mar 2025 10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 03 Mar 2025 10CM FLUX: 148 / AP: 005\nPREDICTIONS FOR 04 Mar 2025 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 006\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at low\nlevels over the past 24 hours with only C-class flaring. A total of 12\nnumbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours.\nThe flaring activity was dominated by a new region, SIDC Sunspot Group 424\n(magnetic type beta), which emerged in the south-east quadrant, currently\nlocated at S18E52. It has produced a C9.5 flare (SIDC Flare 3737) peaking\nat 23:01 UTC on Mar 01. Two other regions have emerged near the east limb,\nnamely SIDC Sunspot Group 422 (magnetic type alpha) and SIDC Sunspot Group\n423 (magnetic type beta). The latter one has exhibited significant growth,\nbut has not produced any significant flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group\n420 (NOAA Active Region 4009) and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active\nRegion 4006) remain the largest regions on the visible solar disc, but have\nbeen mostly quiet. They are both classified as magnetic type beta. The\nremaining regions are either simple and/or have been mostly quiet. The\nsolar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24\nhours with 30% chances for M-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A long filament in the south-east quadrant was\nerupting in the UTC afternoon of Mar 01. A possibly related south-east\ncoronal mass ejection (CME) is visible in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph data\naround 18:12 UTC on Mar 01. The CME is estimated to have a projected\nvelocity below 500 km/s. Current analysis suggests only a small glancing\nblow arrival on Mar 05. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in\nthe available coronagraph imagery.\n\nSolar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and\nDSCOVR) were under the waning influence of a previously ongoing high speed\nstream arrival. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B,\ndecreased to nominal levels with a maximum value of 5.9 nT and a minimum Bz\nof -3.6 nT. The solar wind speed has decreased from above 700 km/s towards\n500 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive\nsector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected\nto return towards background slow solar wind levels over the next 24 hours.\n\n\nGeomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet\nto active. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next\n24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for Mar 03 and Mar 04. An\nincrease to active conditions with small chances of reaching minor\ngeomagnetic storm levels might be expected on Mar 05 with any possible\nglancing blow ICME arrival.\n\nProton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES\nproton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the\nnext 24 hours.\n\nElectron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has\nremained below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours, while the\ngreater than 10 MeV GOES 18 electron flux has briefly exceeded the\nthreshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and GOES 18 electron fluxed are\nexpected to exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours and over the\nnext days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. It is\nexpected to remain so in the next 24 hours and increase towards moderate\nlevels thereafter." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-04T04:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-05T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.79, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.93, "confidenceInPercentage" : 33.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.93", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/03/01 18:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 04:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 10:10Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 5:50\nPOS Midpoint: 07:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 13:05\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.1\nTravel Time: ~6.1 * 13:05 = 79:50\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-03-05T02:00Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/03/02 17:36Z\n\n\n*** Based on the location and observations from the Solar Orbiter satellite, I am submitting a second prediction made alongside the prior (https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/prediction/detail/4584). The impact type for this prediction is 3 (expected bulk impact), while the prior is 1 (expected glancing blow). My estimated odds of an arrival around this prediction's time frame is 33%, and 66% for the prior prediction." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-05T17:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-05T05:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 34.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24.18", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-03-05T17:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-03-04T22:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 33.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24.18", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-02-24T07:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-02-26T05:26Z", "maxKP" : 5.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first seen to the WNW is SOHO LASCO C2. CME is also seen as a partial halo mostly to the NW in STEREO A COR2 but is obscured by the pylon is SOHO LASCO C3. This CME is very difficult to distinguish from the previous CME in white light imagery. The source is most likely associated with an M3.3 flare from AR 14000 (N17W21) that peaked at 2025-02-24T07:02Z. The flare and a region of dimming projected south of the flare are seen across SDO AIA and GOES SUVI wavelengths but are best seen in SDO AIA 193. There also appears to be some western deflection. CME arrival characterized by an increase in B_total from approx. 10nT to a maximum of 20nT at 2025-02-26T12:31Z. This CME possibly interacted with a coronal hole high speed stream, impacting the arrival time. The coronal hole high speed onset was seen at L1 at 2025-02-26T12:36Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-24T22:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-26T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.95", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Juice, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-24T22:29:07Z\n## Message ID: 20250224-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-02-24T07:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~593 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A, Juice (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-02-26T14:40Z (plus minus 7 hours), and the flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-02-26T18:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-26T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-02-26T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250224_121100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250224_121100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250224_121100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250224_121100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250224_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250224_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250224_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250224_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.3 flare from Active Region 1400 (N17W21) with ID 2025-02-24T06:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-24T07:02Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-25T19:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-27T02:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "9.93", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-02-24 12:11\n - Time at C2: 2025-02-24 07:00\n - Radial speed: 593.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N13W29\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 583.90 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-02-27 02:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.50 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-25T20:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-26T20:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "9.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-25T20:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-26T20:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "9.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-02-02T23:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-02-02T23:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-02-07T06:24Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME first seen to the East by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-02-02T23:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 in later frames. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 02/15:23Z. The source of this CME is an M4.1 flare from Active Region 3981 (N05E25) beginning at 02/23:04Z. This flare can be seen in SDO AIA 131 along with field line opening seen exhibiting a Southern deflection seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-03T01:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-06T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-30.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "100.72", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36787/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-02-02T23:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=471.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2025-02-03T05:59Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-02-06T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-07T16:00Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-07T06:00Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-08T00:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-05T08:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-03T04:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-06T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "98.05", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nFrom 2025-02-03 12:30 UTC Forecast Discussion\n\"...A CME signature that followed an M4.1 (R1) flare at 02/2324 UTC from Region\n3981 was identified inside of simultaneous CME signatures originating\nfrom the farside of the Sun. Analysis and modeling of the event\nsuggested possible effects from the periphery of the CME at Earth over\n07 Feb.\"" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-03T14:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-06T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "88.40", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-02-03T04:57Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 590\nLongitude (deg): E019\nLatitude (deg): S18\nHalf-angular width (deg): 25\n\nNotes: Limited clear imagery available for cone fit, so low confidence.\nSpace weather advisor: TG" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-03T18:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-06T08:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "83.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-03T18:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-06T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "83.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-01-30T17:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-02-01T22:25Z", "maxKP" : 4.33, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint partial-halo CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, which remains visible into the C3 field of view. Overlaps with CME:2025-01-30T16:12Z, which is much more well-defined in coronagraph imagery. This CME is not captured by STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which started at 2025-01-30T15:09Z. The source of this CME is a distinct set of opening field lines and post-eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94/171/193 around 2025-01-30T14:25Z located at approx. S15E10, as part of the same filament eruption which sourced CME:2025-01-30T16:12Z, which was seen beginning at approx. 2025-01-30T13:49Z in SDO AIA 304, spanning approx. S05E05 to S40E40. Potential arrival signature: characterized by a sheath (no shock) beginning at 2025-02-01T22:25Z and following a coronal hole high speed stream, based on an enhancement in solar wind speed and density (but not temperature) according to Sanchita Pal and Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS group. A much more pronounced flux rope signature is visible around 2025-02-02T16:08Z in which a smooth rotation and separation of magnetic field components is observed, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 11nT. As this signature overlaps with waning effects from the 2025-01-31 coronal hole high speed stream, there is little change in solar wind speed observed.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-31T02:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-01T15:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.28", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36729/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=892.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-01-30T21:26Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-02-01T15:06Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =12.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.6\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T15:16Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T10:29Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T22:53Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-01T09:07Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-01T23:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-31T12:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-02T03:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.28", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-30 21:26\n - Time at C2: 2025-01-30 17:48\n - Radial speed: 892.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 34 deg\n - Eruption location: S12E20\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 673.60 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-02-02 03:39 (i.e. predicted transit time: 57.85 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-01T01:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-01T18:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.65", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Notification not sent \n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001 and 2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250201-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Mars between about 2025-02-02T19:46Z and 2025-02-03T11:26Z (average arrival 2025-02-03T02:59Z) for 75% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-02-01T13:22Z and 2025-02-02T02:18Z (average arrival 2025-02-01T18:57Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 61% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_Mars_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/Detailed_results_20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-01T14:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-01T15:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "8.32", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36750/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-23.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=777.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2025-01-30T21:21Z\n2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=892.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-01-30T21:26Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-02-01T15:22Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =13.9 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.6\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T16:13Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T11:15Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T23:45Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-01T09:39Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-01T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-06T15:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-01T19:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-112.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-06T15:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-01T17:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-112.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-01-30T16:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-02-01T22:25Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Flux rope CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. CME not captured by STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which started at 2025-01-30T15:09Z. The source is a filament eruption seen beginning at approx. 2025-01-30T13:49Z in SDO AIA 304, spanning approx. S05E05 to S40E40. Dimming and post eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Potential arrival signature: characterized by a sheath (no shock) beginning at 2025-02-01T22:25Z and following a coronal hole high speed stream, based on an enhancement in solar wind speed and density (but not temperature) according to Sanchita Pal and Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS group. A much more pronounced flux rope signature is visible around 2025-02-02T16:08Z in which a smooth rotation and separation of magnetic field components is observed, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 11nT. As this signature overlaps with waning effects from the 2025-01-31 coronal hole high speed stream, there is little change in solar wind speed observed. As this arrival signature indicates frontal impact of a CME, this is more likely the effect of the more central faint 2025-01-30T17:48Z CME rather than a glancing blow from the 2025-01-30T16:12Z CME, however both CMEs have the same filament as a source.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-30T23:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.32", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36725/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-23.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=777.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2025-01-30T21:21Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-02-02T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-01T14:48Z\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-03T06:00Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T20:00Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-03T14:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-31T06:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-01T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.93", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: T2025-01-30 21:21\nRadial velocity (km/s): 727\nLongitude (deg):-20\nLatitude (deg):-19\nHalf-angular width (deg):26\n\nNotes: likely to pass more behind the Earth" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-31T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-02T23:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 18.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 18.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.42", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 400 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 450 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 20 deg\n\nPredicted transit time = 79.2 ± 18.5 h\nPredicted Vmax = 456.1 ± 80.3 km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-31T09:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-02T05:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.08", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-30 21:21\n - Time at C2: 2025-01-30 16:12\n - Radial speed: 777.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 23 deg\n - Eruption location: S21E23\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 639.10 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-02-02 05:25 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.22 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-01T01:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-02T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.92", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 570\nLongitude (deg): E029\nLatitude (deg): S27\nHalf-angular width (deg): 27\n\nNotes: Low confidence. Multi-stage filament eruption but incorporated into this single CME. Glancing impact most likely.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-01T01:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-01T18:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.65", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Notification not sent \n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001 and 2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250201-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Mars between about 2025-02-02T19:46Z and 2025-02-03T11:26Z (average arrival 2025-02-03T02:59Z) for 75% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-02-01T13:22Z and 2025-02-02T02:18Z (average arrival 2025-02-01T18:57Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 61% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_Mars_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/Detailed_results_20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-01T14:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-01T15:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "8.32", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36750/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-23.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=777.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2025-01-30T21:21Z\n2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=892.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-01-30T21:26Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-02-01T15:22Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =13.9 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.6\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T16:13Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T11:15Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T23:45Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-01T09:39Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-01T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-06T17:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-02T03:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.14286, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.28571, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-114.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-02-06T17:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-02-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-114.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-01-26T01:25:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-01-26T01:25Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-01-29T20:43Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 (for all frames) and STEREO COR2A (starting at 2025-01-26T02:23Z when a data gap ends). Source is a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant of the Earth-facing disk, with liftoff starting around 2025-01-26T00:08Z as seen in SDO AIA 304. The curved filament occupied an oval-shaped area on the disk spanning S10-S30 and E38-E65 just prior to eruption. Filamentary material and post eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 304 at 2025-01-25T00:45Z. Post-eruptive arcades become visible in SDO AIA 171/193/131 around 2025-01-26T02:27Z. Possible arrival signature: Weak possible ICME signature characterized by a gradual increase in magnetic field components (B_t: from 5nT to 12nT), as well as an increase in density from 6p/cc to 16p/cc. There is no clear shock feature associated with this signature, as it is likely a minor CME flank impact. A similar, but more direct signature can be observed at Solar Orbiter, which was 20 degrees East of Earth at the time of impact, beginning at approx. 2025-01-29T13:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-27T10:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-30T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.23", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nCME Event ID: B1353\nStart Date/Time: 2025-01-27 00:32Z \nLatitude: -30°\nLongitude: -53°\nHalf Angle: 21°\nRadial Velocity: 676 km/s\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Jan 28 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n...\nA filament eruption near S20E50 occurred around 26/1830 UTC. There was\nconsiderable dimming seen in the GOES-16 195 channel surrounding the\narea. A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, modelling suggests\nthat the bulk of the plasma will pass behind Earth with fluctuations to\nproduce a glancing blow on 29 Jan.\n\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Jan 28 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are likely to continue near nominal levels over\n28 Jan. Modelling of the aforementioned filament that erupted on 26 Jan\nsuggests a chance for enhancements in the solar wind environment late on\n28 Jan to early on 29 Jan. A return to or continuation of nominal levels\nis expected 30 Jan.\n\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Jan 29 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\n…\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters have remained enhanced throughout the period. This\nmay be due to the arrival of the filament eruption that occurred 26 Jan\nthat was projected to arrive late 28 Jan into 29 Jan. The total field\n(Bt) was between 8-10 nT with an extended period of the Bz component\nbeing deflected southward between roughly 28/0800 through 28/1800 UTC,\ndropping as low as -9 nT. Solar wind speeds remained low between\n300-350 km/s. The phi angle was mostly negative (towards the Sun) prior\nto 28/0900 UTC and became highly variable thereafter.\n\n…\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to remain below the G1 (Minor)\ngeomagnetic storm thresholds 29-31 Jan. However, with two weak passing\nblows expected and multiple transients intermixed from small eruptions\nfrom the disk, confidence is low over the coming days. The field will\nlikely be unsettled (Kp=3) with a slight chance for active (Kp=4)\nconditions. Confidence remains especially low for the second passing\nblow associated with the CME described in the Solar Activity section.\nModelling suggests an arrival on 31 Jan, but this may be overrun by the\nhigh speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole that is\nexpected to arrive on 01 Feb." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-30T18:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-30T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-22.00", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-30T18:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-30T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-22.00", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-01-04T18:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-01-07T04:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Fast partial halo seen generally to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 quickly leaving the SOHO C2 field of view, seemingly associated with an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3939 (S17W58) and associated long duration C7.6-class flare. Quickly moving field lines off the west limb and bright post eruptive arcades are observed in GOES SUVI 284/304. Associated with solar energetic particle events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-04T23:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-07T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.83", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Juice, STEREO A, BepiColombo, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T23:10:06Z\n## Message ID: 20250104-AL-016\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-01-04T15:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~892 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 56/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001\n\n2: O-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-01-04T18:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1590 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 58/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Juice, STEREO A, BepiColombo (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Juice at 2025-01-05T15:29Z and the flank will reach STEREO A at 2025-01-06T09:18Z, BepiColombo at 2025-01-05T17:00Z, Lucy at 2025-01-07T10:00Z, and Mars at 2025-01-08T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-07T05:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001, 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe CME event (2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001) is associated with long-duration C9.3 flare from Active Region 13939 (S17W58) with ID 2025-01-04T14:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T15:08Z.\n\nThe CME event (2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001) is associated with long-duration C7.6 flare from Active Region 13939 (S17W58) with ID 2025-01-04T18:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T19:15Z, SEP at SOHO with ID 2025-01-04T21:46:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20250104-AL-011), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2025-01-04T22:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20250104-AL-012, 20250104-AL-013), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2025-01-04T22:23:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20250104-AL-014, 20250104-AL-015).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-05T03:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-06T21:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.77, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.95, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.10", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/01/04 18:50Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 22:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 01:10Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:40\nPOS Midpoint: 23:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.16\nTravel Time: ~10.16 * 5:00 = 50:48\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-01-06T21:38Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/01/05 03:52Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-05T16:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-06T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.18", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2025 Jan 06 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n\n...\nNo new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph\nimagery. However, a fast CME originating from AR 3939 on 04 Jan was\nmodeled and determined to be a glancing blow at Earth by late on 06 Jan\nwith the bulk of the material being well ahead of Earth's orbit.\n..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-05T21:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-06T10:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.10", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36287/1\nModel Inputs:\n2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=38.0, Lat.=-19.0, Speed=1603.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2025-01-04T20:32Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-01-06T10:11Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =25.1 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.9\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-07T04:12Z\nJuice with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-05T15:09Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-06T16:20Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-07T19:32Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-06T04:48Z\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-06T00:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-07T10:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_203200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-05T23:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-06T14:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.87", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-04 20:32\n - Time at C2: 2025-01-04 18:48\n - Radial speed: 1603.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 39 deg\n - Eruption location: S19W38\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 886.90 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-01-06 14:04 (i.e. predicted transit time: 43.28 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-06T11:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-07T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.22", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2025 Jan 05 1410 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection directed to the south-west was first detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery from 18:54 UTC January 05. This is associated with the long duration C7.6 flare that occurred between SIDC Sunspot group 351 (NOAA Active Region 3939) and some new flux emergence to the north-east of it. The partial halo CME had a speed of over 1000 km/s and initial analysis suggests it will have an Earth directed component, with a possible glancing blow arrival at Earth from early on January 07.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-06T19:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-06T19:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-01-04T15:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-01-07T04:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME associated with a long duration C9.3-class flare near the vicinity of AR 3939 (S17W55) that begins at approximately 2025-01-04T14:30Z, seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It can be seen across all GOES SUVI wavelengths, but is particularly prominent in GOES SUVI 284. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-04T23:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-07T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.83", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Juice, STEREO A, BepiColombo, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T23:10:06Z\n## Message ID: 20250104-AL-016\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-01-04T15:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~892 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 56/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001\n\n2: O-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2025-01-04T18:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1590 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 58/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Juice, STEREO A, BepiColombo (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Juice at 2025-01-05T15:29Z and the flank will reach STEREO A at 2025-01-06T09:18Z, BepiColombo at 2025-01-05T17:00Z, Lucy at 2025-01-07T10:00Z, and Mars at 2025-01-08T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-07T05:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001, 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe CME event (2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001) is associated with long-duration C9.3 flare from Active Region 13939 (S17W58) with ID 2025-01-04T14:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T15:08Z.\n\nThe CME event (2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001) is associated with long-duration C7.6 flare from Active Region 13939 (S17W58) with ID 2025-01-04T18:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T19:15Z, SEP at SOHO with ID 2025-01-04T21:46:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20250104-AL-011), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2025-01-04T22:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20250104-AL-012, 20250104-AL-013), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2025-01-04T22:23:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20250104-AL-014, 20250104-AL-015).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-04T23:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-07T18:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.51, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.47, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.77", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2025/01/04 15:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 21:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 00:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:30\nPOS Midpoint: 22:45Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:45\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.71\nTravel Time: ~9.71 * 7:45 = 75:14\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-01-07T18:14Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2025/01/04 22:20Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-07T11:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-07T11:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2025-01-01T02:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2025-01-01T02:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-01-03T23:33Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME with a fuzzy front (multiple fronts) to the SW. A possible considered source could be a significant eruption near AR 3939 (S17W15) starting around 2025-01-01T00:30Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. An alternative source is the movement of field lines close to/on the SW limb seen in SUVI 195 after 2025-01-01T01:30Z, possibly from Active Region 3932 (S15W77).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-02T11:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-03T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.55", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2025 Jan 02 1236 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50102\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jan 2025, 1234UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jan 2025 10CM FLUX: 208 / AP: 038 PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2025 10CM FLUX: 200 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jan 2025 10CM FLUX: 190 / AP: 024\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 3 M-class flares recorded. SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active Region 3936) was responsible for most of the flaring activity, including the 3 M-class flares. The largest flare was an M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3168) peaking on January 01 at 18:17 UTC. This region has now rotated over the west limb but may still contribute to the flaring activity over the next day. A new region emerged and was numbered in the south east, SIDC Sunspot Group 358 (NOAA Active Region 3945). Additionally, a new area of fast flux emergence can also be seen in the south-western quadrant, but has yet to be numbered. SIDC Sunspot Group 357 (NOAA Active Region 3944) showed some further growth while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next\n24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and X-class flares possible.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: The CME associated to the filament eruption reported yesterday, seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data directed to the south-west from 02:20 UTC January 01, is expected to have a glancing blow at Earth from late on January 03. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-03T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-93.40", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-03T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-93.40", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-12-29T18:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2025-01-02T10:05Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo seen as a faint leading edge without much overflowing material behind the leading edge, seen to the south and southeast in SOHO LASCO and east-southeast in STEREO A COR2. Likely associated with an eruption from AR3939 near S18E15 seen as quickly breaking field lines near the active region seen best in GOES SUVI 131, 195, 284, 304. The attached WSA-Enlil+Cone simulation should not be interpreted as a forecast and is likely to overestimate geomagnetic impacts at Earth given that the measurement represents the faint shock associated with the CME, which does not contain much observed material behind the leading edge.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-29T22:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T22:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "83.72", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Juice, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-29T22:22:38Z\n## Message ID: 20241229-AL-009\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-12-29T18:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~917 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -5/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Juice (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-01-01T21:02Z, Lucy at 2025-01-01T05:27Z, Mars at 2025-01-03T00:27Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T19:58Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-01T11:07Z, and Juice at 2024-12-31T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-31T22:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: This WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulation is likely to overestimate geomagnetic impacts at Earth given that the measurement represents the faint shock associated with the CME, which does not contain much observed material behind the leading edge.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-30T02:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-01T19:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.23, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.36, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.88", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/12/29 18:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 01:00Z; 24Rsun; SSE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 01:50Z; 24Rsun; NNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:50\nPOS Midpoint: 01:25Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:25\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.89\nTravel Time: ~9.89 * 7:25 = 73:21\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-01-01T19:21Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/12/30 02:10Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-30T08:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-01T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.08", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Dec 30 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity continued at high levels. Region 3936 (N13W48,\nDkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest flare of the period, an\nX1.5/2N flare that peaked at 30/0414 UTC. As the X1.5 flare was\ndecaying, Region 3932 (S16W55, Cao/beta) produced an X1.1 flare that\npeaked at 30/0429 UTC.\nRegion 3936 was the most active region, producing six M-class flares and\none of the X-class flares. Regions 3933 (S08W78, Dao/beta-gamma) and\n3939 (S17E20, Dso/beta) added three M-class flares each during the\nperiod. A few other regions contributed isolated M-class flares,\nbringing the total count to 17 M-class flares and two X-class flares\nover the past 24 hours. The majority of the spot groups were relatively\nunchanged, with none showing notable growth or decay throughout the\nperiod.\n\nA filament eruption that was associated with an M2.0 flare at 29/0430\nUTC from AR3939 resulted in an asymmetric, partial-halo CME first seen\nin NASA coronagraph imagery at approximately 29/0624 UTC. Analysis and\nmodeling of this CME indicated an Earth-directed event with an arrival\nat Earth by mid UTC day on 31 Dec.\n\nAdditionally, AR 3939 produced an M3.3 flare at 29/1708 UTC that\nappeared to have resulted in yet another partial-halo CME, although,\nmore faint CME first seen in NASA coronagraph imagery around 29/1800\nUTC. Analysis and modeling of this event point towards a likely\nEarth-directed component as well, with an anticipated arrival time near\nmidday on 1 Jan.\n\nFinally, following the X1.5 flare, a subsequent CME was observed in\nLASCO coronagraph imagery, starting at 30/0500 UTC and moving NW.\nInitial analysis of this event indicated a miss ahead and above the\nSun-Earth line.\n \n.Forecast...\nR1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for\nan isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 01 Jan.\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated above\nbackground levels, but well below the S1 threshold. The greater than 2\nMeV electron flux reached moderate levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal\nto moderate levels through 01 Jan. A slight chance for an S1 (Minor)\nsolar radiation storm event will persist through 01 Jan given the\ncurrent total disk potential.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters saw a few weak enhancements during the period, but\nremained overall at nominal levels. Total field ranged from 2-9 nT, Bz\nwas mostly positive with a few southward deflections to -7 nT, , and\nsolar wind speeds saw a gradual decrease from ~400 km/s to under 350\nkm/s by the end of the period. Phi spent about an equal amount of time\nin both the positive and negative sectors.\n\n.Forecast...\nWeak enhancements are possible through 30 Dec with periods of sustained\nsouthward Bz. Greater enhancements to the solar wind environment are\nlikely by mid UTC day on 31 Dec, due to the anticipated arrival of the\nCME from early on 29 Dec. Additional, yet weaker enhancements are then\npossible again on 01 Jan with the likely arrival of the second CME, also\nfrom 29 Dec.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled\nperiod.\n\n.Forecast...\nQuiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30 Dec under a mostly\nnominal solar wind regime. Isolated periods of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic\nstorming are likely by mid UTC day on 31 Dec due to CME effects from the\naforementioned asymmetric, partial-halo event from early on 29 Dec.\nLingering G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for\nG2 (Moderate) levels, on 01 Jan with the likely arrival of the second\nCME, also from 29 Dec. While confidence is moderate to high for a\ngeomagnetic storming outcome, exact storm strength and timing is lower\ndue to the nature of the filament eruption." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-30T13:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-01T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.97", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2024 Dec 30 1256 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday, seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 06:12 UTC December 29 has been further analysed, It is likely associated with the M2 flare (SIDC flare 3113) at 04:30 UTC December 29 from SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939). An eruption and dimming can be seen in the south-east of the solar disk seen in SUVI 305 images around 05:00 UTC. This CME is deemed to be Earth directed with an estimated arrival time of late on December 31.\nA second faint partial halo CME directed to the east was also observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 18:12 UTC on December 29, associated with a on disk dimming and eruption visible in the south-east quadrant also near SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939) in SUVI 94 and 305 imagery around 16:40 UTC. Although faint and difficult to estimate the speed this CME, it is also determined to be Earth directed with an estimated arrival on January 01.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-30T16:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T10:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-47.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.35", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36117/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-18.0, Speed=881.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T04:56Z\n2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=860.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T10:14Z\n2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=917.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T21:46Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-31T10:28Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =16.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0\n(kp)90=7\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-01T08:56Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T16:59Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-02T08:52Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T10:12Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-01T00:31Z\nJuice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T04:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-30T23:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-01T03:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-30.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.18", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-29 21:46\n - Time at C2: 2024-12-29 18:24\n - Radial speed: 917.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 32 deg\n - Eruption location: S13E05\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 681.10 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2025-01-01 03:34 (i.e. predicted transit time: 57.18 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-01T04:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.8, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.4, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-130.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-01T06:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-27.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-130.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-12-29T06:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T15:44Z", "maxKP" : 8.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the southeast in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery. The source is likely related to an eruption and subsequent M2.0 flare from from Active Region 13939 (S17E30) starting around 2024-12-29T04:40Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A subsequent dimming is observed around the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195 imagery at this time as well.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-29T16:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T13:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.25", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Juice, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-29T16:29:37Z\n## Message ID: 20241229-AL-006\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-12-29T06:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~860 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/-21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Juice (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-01-01T11:40Z, Lucy at 2024-12-31T20:21Z, Mars at 2025-01-02T15:17Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T09:22Z and STEREO A at 2025-01-01T01:22Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2025-01-13T18:00Z and Juice at 2024-12-31T05:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-31T13:11Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001) is associated with an M2.0 flare from Active Region 13939 (S15E30) with ID 2024-12-29T04:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-29T04:30Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-29T17:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.82", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes: :Product: Forecast Discussion\n:Issued: 2024 Dec 30 0030 UTC\n# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center\n#\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels. In addition to a flurry of M-class\nflares, Region 3936 (N13W41, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.1/1N\nflare at 29/0718 UTC, which was the largest flare of the period. Two\nCMEs were associated with this event. The first was seen in NASA\ncoronagraph imagery around 29/0848 UTC and appeared to be a sympathetic\nevent that originated in the vicinity of Region 3933 (S08W75,\nEai/beta-gamma). The second was seen in NASA coronagraph imagery around\n29/0912 UTC as a northwesterly front possibly driven from the\naforementioned X1.1 event. Modeling of both of these CMEs suggests that\nthey will miss south and ahead of Earth, respectively. Other notable\nflares from AR3936 included an M4.2 flare at 29/0759 UTC and an M7.2 at\n29/1509 UTC.\n\nRegion 3939 (S17E20, Dso/beta) produced numerous M-class flares as well.\nA filament eruption that was associated with an M2.0 flare at 29/0430\nUTC from AR3939 resulted in an asymmetric, partial-halo CME first seen\nin NASA coronagraph imagery at approximately 29/0624 UTC. Analysis and\nmodeling of this CME indicated an Earth-directed event with an arrival\nat Earth by mid UTC day on 31 Dec. Additionally, AR 3939 produced an\nM3.3 flare at 29/1708 UTC that appeared to have resulted in yet another\npartial-halo CME, although, more faint CME first seen in NASA\ncoronagraph imagery around 29/1800 UTC. Analysis and modeling of this\nevent is ongoing as of the time of this writing.\n \n.Forecast...\nR1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for\nan isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 01 Jan as the conglomeration of\nregions approaches the western limb.\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated above\nbackground, but well below the S1 threshold. The greater than 2 MeV\nelectron flux reached moderate levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal\nto moderate levels through 31 Dec. A slight chance for an S1 (Minor)\nsolar radiation storm event will persist through 01 Jan given the\ncurrent total disk potential.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were slightly disturbed, but overall nominal.\nTotal field reached peaks of 8-9 nT, but were otherwise 3-5 nT. The Bz\ncomponent underwent a few southward deflections down to -5 nT, but was\npredominantly northward or near neutral. Solar wind speeds gradually\nincreased to a peak of ~400 km/s before returning to 360-370 km/s. Phi\nwas predominantly negative with a few excursions into a positive solar\nsector.\n\n.Forecast...\nWeak enhancements are possible through 30 Dec. Greater enhancements to\nthe solar wind environment due to CME arrival are likely by mid UTC day\non 31 Dec. This disturbance is expected to continue over the course of\n31 Dec before beginning to subside by late 01 Jan.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nQuiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30 Dec. Isolated periods\nof G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming are likely by mid UTC day on 31 Dec\ndue to CME effects from the aforementioned asymmetric, partial-halo\nevent of 29 Dec. While confidence is moderate to high in a geomagnetic\nstorming outcome exact storm strength and timing is lower due to the\nnature of the filament eruption. Lingering G1 (Minor) geomagnetic\nstorming is likely to continue into 01 Jan was CME effects slowly wane.\n\n:Product: 3-Day Forecast\n:Issued: 2024 Dec 30 0030 UTC\n# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center\n#\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 30-Jan 01 2025 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale\nG3).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 30-Jan 01 2025\n\n Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01\n00-03UT 1.33 1.67 5.00 (G1)\n03-06UT 1.33 5.00 (G1) 4.00 \n06-09UT 1.33 6.00 (G2) 3.33 \n09-12UT 1.33 6.67 (G3) 3.67 \n12-15UT 1.00 5.33 (G1) 2.67 \n15-18UT 1.33 4.33 2.33 \n18-21UT 1.67 4.00 2.00 \n21-00UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 3.00 \n\nRationale: No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are\nforecast on 30 Dec. G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely\non 31 Dec followed by G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely on 01 Jan,\nall due to CME activity from significant X-ray activity on 29 Dec.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2025\n\n Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01\nS1 or greater 20% 20% 15%\n\nRationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm event\nwill persist through 01 Jan given the current total disk potential.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nRadio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24\nhours. The largest was at Dec 29 2024 0718 UTC.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2025\n\n Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01\nR1-R2 80% 80% 75%\nR3 or greater 30% 30% 25%\n\nRationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a\nchance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 01 Jan as the\nconglomeration of regions approaches the western limb and new,\ndeveloping regions rotate onto the eastern limb." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-29T18:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2025-01-01T05:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.76, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.43, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.52", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/12/29 06:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 11:50Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 16:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:50\nPOS Midpoint: 14:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:05\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.87\nTravel Time: ~8.87 * 8:05 = 71:42\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2025-01-01T05:52Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/12/29 16:35Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-29T21:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.23", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/0945 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 944\nLongitude (deg): S10\nLatitude (deg): E12\nHalf-angular width (deg): 41\n\nNotes: Model seems to be exaggerating the density of this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-29T23:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T15:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.6, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.00", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Mars, missions near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-30T00:09:41Z ## Message ID: 20241230-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241229-AL-006). \n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, Mars, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2024-12-31T21:01Z and 2025-01-01T06:41Z (average arrival 2025-01-01T01:24Z) for 40% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2025-01-02T11:09Z and 2025-01-03T09:35Z (average arrival 2025-01-02T18:36Z) for 68% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-12-31T09:31Z and 2025-01-01T01:00Z (average arrival 2024-12-31T15:07Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 72% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes: \nThis CME event (2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001) is associated with an M2.0 flare from Active Region 13939 (S15E30) with ID 2024-12-29T04:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-29T04:30Z.\n\nThis CME event is also predicted to impact Europa Clipper at 2025-01-01T11:36Z, Lucy at 2024-12-31T20:17Z, Mars at 2025-01-02T15:08Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T09:15Z, Juice at 2024-12-31T05:00Z, and Juno at 2025-01-13T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20241229-AL-006).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/Detailed_results_20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-30T00:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.05", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-12-31T17:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 80%\nMax Kp Range: 6-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-30T06:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.67", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-12-29T0955Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1015\nLongitude (deg): E24\nLatitude (deg): S25\nHalf-angular width (deg): 52\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Dean Hall" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-30T06:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T20:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.40", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-29 09:13\n - Time at C2: 2024-12-29 06:24\n - Radial speed: 1114.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: S26E20\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: M3.5 (S17E33). Peak at 2024-12-29 05:41\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 632.81 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-12-31 20:16 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.87 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-30T13:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.62", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2024 Dec 30 1256 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday, seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 06:12 UTC December 29 has been further analysed, It is likely associated with the M2 flare (SIDC flare 3113) at 04:30 UTC December 29 from SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939). An eruption and dimming can be seen in the south-east of the solar disk seen in SUVI 305 images around 05:00 UTC. This CME is deemed to be Earth directed with an estimated arrival time of late on December 31.\nA second faint partial halo CME directed to the east was also observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 18:12 UTC on December 29, associated with a on disk dimming and eruption visible in the south-east quadrant also near SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939) in SUVI 94 and 305 imagery around 16:40 UTC. Although faint and difficult to estimate the speed this CME, it is also determined to be Earth directed with an estimated arrival on January 01.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-30T16:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T10:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.00", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36117/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-18.0, Speed=881.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T04:56Z\n2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=860.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T10:14Z\n2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=917.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T21:46Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-31T10:28Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =16.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0\n(kp)90=7\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-01T08:56Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T16:59Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-02T08:52Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T10:12Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-01T00:31Z\nJuice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T04:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T16:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.11111, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.22222, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-173.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T16:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-173.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-12-29T01:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T15:44Z", "maxKP" : 8.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME seen to the south in SOHO LASCO imagery faintly in white light imagery and southeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery; seems to be associated with a relatively minor eruption with southern deflection just west of AR 3938 (N20W01) near central meridian but with lower confidence potentially associated with AR 3939 (S18E33) as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, and best in 304 imagery.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-29T20:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T17:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.12", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper, Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-29T20:37:06Z\n## Message ID: 20241229-AL-008\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-12-29T01:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~881 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -1/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2025-01-01T00:59Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T15:47Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-01-01T20:00Z, Mars at 2025-01-03T02:00Z, and STEREO A at 2025-01-01T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-31T17:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-29T21:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.23", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/0600 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 821\nLongitude (deg): E04\nLatitude (deg): S32\nHalf-angular width (deg): 28\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-30T16:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T10:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.00", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36117/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-18.0, Speed=881.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T04:56Z\n2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=860.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T10:14Z\n2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=917.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T21:46Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-31T10:28Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =16.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0\n(kp)90=7\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-01T08:56Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T16:59Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-02T08:52Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T10:12Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-01T00:31Z\nJuice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T04:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T16:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-173.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-31T17:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-173.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-12-15T04:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-12-17T04:40Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint partial halo CME first seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2024-12-15T04:23Z, as well as faintly in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in later frames. This CME overlaps with previous CME: 2024-12-15T01:25Z, making the front difficult to track in SOHO LASCO. The source of this event appears to be an area of dimming centered near AR 3924 (S19W18) as seen GOES SUVI 195. | ARRIVAL NOTE: Arrival characterized by an increase in B_total from approx. 6nT to 20nT, reaching a peak of approx. 31nT at 2024-12-17T08:39Z. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 390 km/s to sustained peak speeds of approx. 670 km/s, an increase in density, and an increase in temperature. The temperature decreased around 2024-12-17T09:45Z. There was a possible additional but weak arrival at approx. 2024-12-17T18:40Z, characterized by another increase in B-total from 11nT back up to a sustained 14nT, accompanied by another increase in temperature, decrease in density, and increase of solar wind speed from ~510 km/s to above 600 km/s, along with a period of predominantly negative Bz which reached a lowest negative value of -9nT at 2024-12-17T23:16Z. The arrival signature observed at L1 at 2024-12-17T04:40Z is suspected to be the combined arrival of CME 2024-12-15T01:25Z and CME 2024-12-15T04:23Z, along with additional influence from a coronal hole high speed stream.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-15T21:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-17T23:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.53", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35683/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=21.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=536.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-12-15T10:11Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-17T23:16Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =17.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-16T03:20Z\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-18T16:30Z\nJuice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-17T03:11Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-18T00:33Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-20T03:22Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-18T02:50Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-17T20:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_101100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-15T22:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-18T01:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.02", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-15T22:39:24Z\n## Message ID: 20241215-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-12-15T04:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~536 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 21/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001\n\n2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-12-15T01:25Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~410 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 46/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2024-12-16T02:46Z, Europa Clipper at 2024-12-18T20:40Z, Juice at 2024-12-17T04:40Z, Lucy at 2024-12-18T02:45Z, Mars at 2024-12-20T09:45Z, and STEREO A at 2024-12-18T04:40Z. The flank of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-17T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-18T01:13Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001, 2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-16T04:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-18T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "38.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.75", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-12-15T10:43Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 481\nLongitude (deg): 21W\nLatitude (deg): 31S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 43\n\nNotes: Low confidence in fit.\nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-18T06:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "25.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-520.28", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-18T01:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-520.28", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-12-15T01:25Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-12-17T04:40Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright, 3-part CME visible to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery starting around 2024-12-15T01:25Z. The source of this CME is a long filament stretched from W10 to W60 along the S25 latitude that erupts starting around 2024-12-14T21:50Z with full lift off by 2024-12-14T23:50Z as seen in GOES SUVI 304. Associated moving/opening field lines are visible along the SW in GOES SUVI 284. Sympathetic eruption appears to occur around/within AR13924 which is visible as brightening in GOES SUVI 195. Additionally, post-eruptive arcades are visible in GOES SUVI 195. | ARRIVAL NOTE: Arrival characterized by an increase in B_total from approx. 6nT to 20nT, reaching a peak of approx. 31nT at 2024-12-17T08:39Z. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 390 km/s to sustained peak speeds of approx. 670 km/s, an increase in density, and an increase in temperature. The temperature decreased around 2024-12-17T09:45Z. There was a possible additional but weak arrival at approx. 2024-12-17T18:40Z, characterized by another increase in B-total from 11nT back up to a sustained 14nT, accompanied by another increase in temperature, decrease in density, and increase of solar wind speed from ~510 km/s to above 600 km/s, along with a period of predominantly negative Bz which reached a lowest negative value of -9nT at 2024-12-17T23:16Z. The arrival signature observed at L1 at 2024-12-17T04:40Z is suspected to be the combined arrival of CME 2024-12-15T01:25Z and CME 2024-12-15T04:23Z, along with additional influence from a coronal hole high speed stream.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-15T11:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-19T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "45.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.38", "predictionNote" : "expected arrival time: 2024-12-19T02:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 5\nprobability_of_arrival: 95\n\nSIDC URSIGRAM Issued: 2024 Dec 15 1231 UTC\nSIDC URSIGRAM 41215\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Dec 2024, 1230UT\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A wide coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in\nLASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 00:45 UTC on December 15, lifting off\nthe southwest quadrant. It is most likely associated with a large filament\neruption around 23:40 UTC on December 14, west of SIDC Sunspot Group 337\n(NOAA Active Region 3924). The CME is propagating to the southwest with an\nestimated speed of 450 km/s. Current analysis suggests that a glancing blow\nmay arrive at Earth in the UTC morning on December 19." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-15T15:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-18T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "35.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.35", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35666/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=46.0, Lat.=-34.0, Speed=410.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-12-15T10:35Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-18T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-16T05:21Z\nJuice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-17T12:39Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-18T16:39Z\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-19T08:00Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-18T18:00Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-21T04:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-15T22:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-18T01:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.02", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-15T22:39:24Z\n## Message ID: 20241215-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-12-15T04:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~536 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 21/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001\n\n2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-12-15T01:25Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~410 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 46/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2024-12-16T02:46Z, Europa Clipper at 2024-12-18T20:40Z, Juice at 2024-12-17T04:40Z, Lucy at 2024-12-18T02:45Z, Mars at 2024-12-20T09:45Z, and STEREO A at 2024-12-18T04:40Z. The flank of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-17T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-18T01:13Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001, 2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-18T14:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "33.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-520.28", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-18T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "35.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-520.28", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-11-27T19:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-11-27T19:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-12-02T20:07Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Southeastward partial halo CME with the likely source a filament eruption seen in GOES SUVI 304 and 284 starting around 2024-11-27T18:45Z extending southeastwards from Active Regions 13905 (S09E01) and 13906 (S16E08). The CME also has a second, following front - a loop seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-11-27T20:36Z. Only one frame for this CME is available in STEREO A COR2 because of an extensive data gap.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-11-29T12:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-30T02:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-65.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.73", "predictionNote" : "Subject: [EXTERNAL] [BULK] PRESTO ALERT\n:Issued: 2024 Nov 29 1323 UTC\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\nA partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO C2/SOHO images as launched on 29 Nov at 19:24 UTC. It is directed to the South-East and associated with the SIDC flare 2737 located at the SIDC Sunspot Group 302. It is estimated to become geo-effective on the first half of 30 Nov.\n\n \nFrom: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nDate: Friday, November 29, 2024 at 7:33 AM\nSubject: [EXTERNAL] [BULK] SIDC Ursigram\n:Issued: 2024 Nov 29 1231 UTC\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\nSIDC URSIGRAM 41129\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Nov 2024, 1230UT\n…\nCoronal mass ejections: A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be\nseen in LASCO C2/SOHO images as launched on 29 Nov at 19:24 UTC. It is\nexpected to become geo-effective on the first half of 30 Nov." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-12-01T00:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-02T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.05", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-11-28T04:28Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 391\nLongitude (deg): 21E\nLatitude (deg): 37S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 32\n\nNotes: Ill-defined leading edge with coronagraph arm adding difficulty of assessment for this CME.\nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-01T08:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-864.83", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-12-01T08:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-864.83", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-11-25T21:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-11-25T21:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-11-29T02:15Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and possibly to the SE in STEREO A COR2 imagery following a data gap. The CME is likely associated with the M1.9 flare from AR3091 as seen from SDO/AIA 131 and associated dimming in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 20:33Z. The dimming and associated EUV wave is seen moving out in all directions, most notably seen to the north, east, and south of the source location. This CME event overlaps with CMEs visible to the southwest which began around 2024-11-25T18:00Z. Arrival on 2024-11-29T02:15Z is categorized by a quick increase in Bt from around 8 nT->12.5 nT, with Bz initially northward, with further enhancement possible as the signature develops. Small jump in solar wind speed from about 370 km/s->400 km/s with small bumps in density and temperature also observed. This is mainly the likely arrival of CME 2024-11-25T21:24Z, with possible additional influences from CMEs 2024-11-25T03:12Z and 2024-11-25T04:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-11-26T04:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T06:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.65", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-26T04:36:22Z\n## Message ID: 20241126-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-11-25T21:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~935 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -2/-23 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-11-25T21:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2024-11-28T12:39Z, Juice at 2024-11-27T11:30Z, Lucy at 2024-11-28T03:29Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-11-28T04:16Z, and STEREO A at 2024-11-28T03:24Z. The flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2024-12-10T02:00Z and Mars at 2024-11-29T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-11-28T06:18Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-11-25T21:24:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-11-25T21:24:00-CME-001) may be associated with the M1.9 flare from Active Region 13901 (S12W25) with ID 2024-11-25T20:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-11-25T20:54Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-11-26T06:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.25", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-11-26T01:03Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 950\nLongitude (deg): 3E\nLatitude (deg): 22S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 27\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-11-26T11:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T06:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.15", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-11-26 00:31\n - Time at C2: 2024-11-25 21:24\n - Radial speed: 935.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 29 deg\n - Eruption location: S23E02\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 686.50 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-11-28 06:06 (i.e. predicted transit time: 56.70 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-11-26T13:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T21:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.08, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.29, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.33", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/11/25 21:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 06:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 07:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 01:00\nPOS Midpoint: 07:10Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:50\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.37\nTravel Time: ~7.37 * 9:50 = 72:30\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-11-28T21:50Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/11/26 13:51Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-11-26T16:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.72", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T11:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 92.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-954.70", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 92.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-954.70", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-11-25T04:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-11-25T04:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-11-29T02:15Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first visible to the SSE in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2024-11-25T04:00Z. Also visible to the SSE in SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2. This CME closely follows CME: 2024-11-25T03:12Z but is slightly slower and slightly wider and is clearly distinguishable in running difference imagery. There is not a clearly definitive source for this CME, but a possible candidate is a deflected source associated with an M1.1 flare from AR 3906 (S13E46) that peaked at 2024-11-25T01:59Z. Arrival on 2024-11-29T02:15Z is categorized by a quick increase in Bt from around 8 nT->12.5 nT, with Bz initially northward, with further enhancement possible as the signature develops. Small jump in solar wind speed from about 370 km/s->400 km/s with small bumps in density and temperature also observed. This is mainly the likely arrival of CME 2024-11-25T21:24Z, with possible additional influences from CMEs 2024-11-25T03:12Z and 2024-11-25T04:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-11-25T15:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.62", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35308/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-11-25T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-31.0, Lat.=-42.0, Speed=382.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2024-11-25T12:37Z\n2024-11-25T04:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-16.0, Lat.=-33.0, Speed=315.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2024-11-25T14:50Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-28T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-26T10:00Z\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-29T00:00Z\nJuice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-27T20:00Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-28T16:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-28T18:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-29T02:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-954.70", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-954.70", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-11-25T03:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-11-25T03:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-11-29T02:15Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first seen to the SSE in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2024-11-25T03:12Z. CME also seen to the SSE in SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is likely a small filament eruption centered around S40-45E28 that is visible in SDO AIA 304 and SDO AIA 193 starting about 2024-11-25T01:30Z. Arrival on 2024-11-29T02:15Z is categorized by a quick increase in Bt from around 8 nT->12.5 nT, with Bz initially northward, with further enhancement possible as the signature develops. Small jump in solar wind speed from about 370 km/s->400 km/s with small bumps in density and temperature also observed. This is mainly the likely arrival of CME 2024-11-25T21:24Z, with possible additional influences from CMEs 2024-11-25T03:12Z and 2024-11-25T04:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-11-25T15:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.62", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35308/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-11-25T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-31.0, Lat.=-42.0, Speed=382.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2024-11-25T12:37Z\n2024-11-25T04:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-16.0, Lat.=-33.0, Speed=315.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2024-11-25T14:50Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-28T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nBepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-26T10:00Z\nEuropa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-29T00:00Z\nJuice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-27T20:00Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-28T16:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-28T18:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-29T02:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-954.70", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-28T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-954.70", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-11-11T01:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-11-11T01:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-11-14T03:32Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Very faint but fast, relatively narrow CME with the fuzzy front that is only relatively clearly seen in STEREO A difference imagery. The source is likely a relatively small filament eruption seen starting around 2024-11-11T00:10Z (as seen in AIA 304/193, SUVI 304/195/284, STA EUVI 195) centered ~N20E25 and stretching from N27E40 to N17E17. Coronal signatures include an ejecta/filament seen erupting in 304 and dimming and post-eruptive arcades seen in 193/195.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-11-11T14:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-14T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.47", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/34567/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-11-11T01:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-25.0, Lat.=19.0, Speed=984.0, HalfAngle=15.0, Time21.5=2024-11-11T04:24Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact (cursory glancing blow)\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-14T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-13T08:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-13T02:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241111_042400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-14T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1313.42", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-14T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1313.42", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-11-05T00:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-11-05T00:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-11-07T14:29Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first seen in the East by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-11-05T00:09Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is a region of dimming seen centered at approximately N05E35 beginning around 05/23:19Z as seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Field line opening is also visible in GOES SUVI 195 and 284. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE per analysis by Carlos Perez Alanis, LASSOS team: L1 signature on 2024-11-07 through 11-09 could be indicative of two merged ICMEs (possibly a merger of this CME with the CME with ID 2024-11-04T17:24:00-CME-001). The relatively weak shock/sheath signature starting at 2024-11-07T14:29Z is characterized by a minor enhancement in the magnetic field (with B_total reaching only 8nT). The shock is however clearly visible in the plasma measurements (a jump in solar wind speed from 380 to 425 km/s and in density from 6 to over 13 p/cc). Following this the solar wind is a bit disturbed, possibly it is the sheath which may have lasted quite long due to the mixed ICMEs. There are two consecutive flux rope signatures in the following signature. The likely arrival of the first flux rope is after 2024-11-08T10:25Z. This first flux rope signature is characterized by an increase in B_total to over 16nT, smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components, as well as by a drop in density and temperature. The second flux rope signature starts around 2024-11-08T23:30Z and is characterized by B_total reaching 16nT, a long period of negative Bz and another drop in density and temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-11-05T16:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-07T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.98", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-05T16:30:03Z\n## Message ID: 20241105-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-11-05T00:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~526 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -36/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-11-05T00:09:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-11-07T04:00Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-11-07T10:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2024-11-06T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-11-07T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-11-05T00:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_061300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_061300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_061300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_061300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_061300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_061300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-07T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1470.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-07T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1470.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-11-04T17:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-11-04T17:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-11-07T14:29Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME seen to the E in all coronagraphs, with minimal frames in STEREO COR2A due to a data gap. This CME front is comprised of a slower northern piece and a faster southern piece which still relatively travel together, causing a distortion in the front as it travels from earliest frames -> later frames. The source is the double peaked M3.7 and M5.5 flare from AR 3883 (S07E38), which began at 2024-11-04T15:26Z in SDO AIA 131 with additional field line movement and very slight dimming observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE per analysis by Carlos Perez Alanis, LASSOS team: L1 signature on 2024-11-07 through 11-09 could be indicative of two merged ICMEs (possibly a merger of this CME with the faster CME with ID 2024-11-05T00:09:00-CME-001). The relatively weak shock/sheath signature starting at 2024-11-07T14:29Z is characterized by a minor enhancement in the magnetic field (with B_total reaching only 8nT). The shock is however clearly visible in the plasma measurements (a jump in solar wind speed from 380 to 425 km/s and in density from 6 to over 13 p/cc). Following this the solar wind is a bit disturbed, possibly it is the sheath which may have lasted quite long due to the mixed ICMEs. There are two consecutive flux rope signatures in the following signature. The likely arrival of the first flux rope is after 2024-11-08T10:25Z. This first flux rope signature is characterized by an increase in B_total to over 16nT, smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components, as well as by a drop in density and temperature. The second flux rope signature starts around 2024-11-08T23:30Z and is characterized by B_total reaching 16nT, a long period of negative Bz and another drop in density and temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-11-05T01:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-08T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.68", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/34422/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-11-04T17:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-47.0, Lat.=4.0, Speed=388.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-11-05T02:08Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-08T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-07T14:00Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-07T10:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-07T10:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241105_020800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-08T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1470.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-08T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1470.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-10-31T13:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-10-31T13:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-11-03T16:47Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint, near partial halo CME first seen in the SE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-10-31T13:48Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is brightening and a subsequent eruption from Active Region 3877 (S16E02) beginning at approx. 31/12:51Z. The brightening is visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131, along with the eruptive material visible in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304, and wide but faint field line movement seen South of the Active Region in SDO AIA 193. This flare brightened in tandem with AR 3875, however AR 3875 was responsible for the majority of the brightening and is there for the associated Active Region for the event.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-31T19:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-03T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.33, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.67, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.10", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2024 Nov 02 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 02-Nov 04 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 02-Nov 04 2024\n\n Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04\n00-03UT 0.67 2.67 3.67 \n03-06UT 1.00 3.00 2.67 \n06-09UT 1.67 2.67 2.67 \n09-12UT 4.00 2.67 2.00 \n12-15UT 4.00 2.33 1.67 \n15-18UT 2.67 2.67 1.67 \n18-21UT 2.67 3.67 1.67 \n21-00UT 3.67 3.67 2.67 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. \n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 02-Nov 04 2024\n\n Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04\nS1 or greater 50% 30% 30%\n\nRationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to\nremain elevated but below the threshold over 02-04 Nov.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nRadio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24\nhours. The largest was at Nov 01 2024 1431 UTC.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Nov 02-Nov 04 2024\n\n Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04\nR1-R2 75% 75% 75%\nR3 or greater 35% 35% 35%\n\nRationale: M-class (R1-minor) are expected, with a chance for X-class\n(R3-strong), through 04 Nov.\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Nov 01 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels. The largest event was an X2.0/3b\nflare (R3-Strong) at 31/2120 UTC from Region 3878 (N16E09,\nEki/beta-gamma-delta). In addition, five M-class flares (R1-Minor) were\nobserved from Regions 3875 (N28W55, Dai/beta-gamma), 3876 (S06W60,\nDki/beta-gamma), and 3878. Growth was observed in Regions 3875 and 3876,\nand new Region 3880 (S13E41, Bxo/beta) was numbered. The remaining\nregions were either stable or in decay. Analysis of a CME associated\nwith flaring from Region 3877 (S16W18, Axx/alpha) at around 31/1252 UTC\nresulted in a possible glancing blow on 03 Nov. Analysis of a possible\nCME from a Type IV radio sweep associated with flaring from 3876 is\nwaiting on available imagery.\n \n.Forecast...\nM-class flares (R1-Minor) are expected, with a chance for X-class flares\n(R3-Strong), through 03 Nov.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux persisted at S1 (Minor) levels for\nthe first half of the period before fluctuating around the threshold\nvalue for the remainder of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron\nflux was at normal to moderate levels.\n\n.Forecast... \nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to cross below the S1\n(Minor) threshold during 01 Nov and remain elevated but below the\nthreshold over 02-03 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is\nexpected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 03 Nov.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nEnhanced solar wind conditions prevailed through much of the period,\nwith an increase in interplanetary magnetic field observed late in the\nday. Total field strength reached 10 nT and the Bz component reached -9\nnT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 450-600 km/s. The phi angle was\npredominately negative.\n\n.Forecast...\nNominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 01 Nov. Mildly\nenhanced solar wind parameters are likely on 02 Nov due to positive\npolarity CH HSS influences. Weakly enhanced conditions are expected on\n03 Nov due to continued, but waning CH HSS influences and the possible\nglancing blow arrival of the 31 Oct CME.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet and active.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 01 Nov. Quiet to\nactive levels are likely on 02 Nov due to positive polarity CH HSS\ninfluences. Quiet to active levels are likely on 03 Nov due to\ncontinued, but waning CH HSS influences and the possible glancing blow\narrival of a CME from 31 Oct." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-31T23:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-03T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.67", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/34351/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-10-31T13:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-17.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=439.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2024-10-31T21:30Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-03T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-03T11:08Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-02T20:50Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-04T02:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-03T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.665, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.335, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1564.17", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-03T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.665, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.335, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1564.17", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-10-29T13:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-10-29T13:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-10-31T19:28Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This event is visible for one frame in STEREO A COR2 imagery to the southwest, prior to a data gap from 2024-10-29T13:23Z to 23:23Z. In SOHO LASCO C3 this event is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southwest, but the CME is only observable for a few frames before it exits the field of view. The source is a large filament eruption spanning about S37W25 to S15W90, likely extending beyond the western limb, which begins to erupt around 2024-10-29T12:40Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming is visible around the eruption site in SDO AIA 193 around 14:15Z, and post eruptive arcades begin to form around 17:15Z in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-30T13:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-03T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "75.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.57", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIGRAM 41030\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Oct 2024, 1239UT\nSIDC FORECAST\n...\nCoronal mass ejections: A faint and slow partial halo coronal mass ejection\n(CME) was detected by LASCO/C2 to lift off the south-west solar quadrant in the UTC afternoon on Oct 29th. The CME is related to a long-duration large on disk filament eruption, which started in the UTC morning on Oct 29th.\nThe CME has a projected velocity of about 550 km/s and the bulk is expected to miss the Earth, but modelling suggests that a slight glancing blow is possible to arrive late on Nov 3rd. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-30T18:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-01T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.95", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/34300/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-10-29T13:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=46.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=922.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2024-10-29T18:13Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-01T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-01T22:39Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-31T17:15Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-31T18:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-02T16:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "45.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1633.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-11-02T16:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "45.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1633.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-10-26T06:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-10-26T06:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-10-28T04:13Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and X1.8 flare from Active Region 13873 (S16E60) starting around 2024-10-26T06:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible over the southeast limb in SDO AIA 171 and 193, with post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 starting around 07:50Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-26T14:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-28T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.85", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\n:Product: 3-Day Forecast\n:Issued: 2024 Oct 27 0030 UTC\n# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center\n#\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 27-Oct 29 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 27-Oct 29 2024\n\n Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29\n00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.33 \n03-06UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67 \n06-09UT 3.33 5.00 (G1) 3.33 \n09-12UT 3.00 4.67 (G1) 3.33 \n12-15UT 2.67 3.67 3.00 \n15-18UT 2.33 3.00 2.67 \n18-21UT 1.67 1.67 2.67 \n21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.33 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) conditions or greater are likely on 28 Oct due to\nanticipated onset of a CME that left the Sun on 26 Oct.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was\nabove S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 27-Oct 29 2024\n\n Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29\nS1 or greater 99% 50% 50%\n\nRationale: S1 (Minor) or greater conditions are expected to continue\nthrough 27 Oct, with continued elevated favorable conditions 28-29 Oct\nas significant regions rotate closer to center disk.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nRadio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24\nhours. The largest was at Oct 26 2024 0719 UTC.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Oct 27-Oct 29 2024\n\n Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29\nR1-R2 75% 75% 75%\nR3 or greater 30% 30% 30%\n\nRationale: R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a change of\nR3 (Strong), from 27-29 Oct due to several complex regions on the\nvisible disk." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-26T16:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-28T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.40", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-26T16:49:56Z\n## Message ID: 20241026-AL-007\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-10-26T06:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1523 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 53 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -54/-32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-10-26T06:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach Lucy at 2024-10-27T18:03Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-10-27T07:24Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-27T06:53Z and the flank may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-28T00:00Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-28T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-28T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-26T06:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241026_090400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241026_090400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241026_090400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241026_090400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241026_090400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241026_090400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241026_090400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241026_090400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241026_090400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241026_090400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-10-26T06:48:00-CME-001) is associated with an X1.8 flare from Active Region 13873 (S16E60) with ID 2024-10-26T06:32:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-26T07:19Z (see notification 20241026-AL-004).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-26T19:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-28T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.68", "predictionNote" : "expected arrival time: 2024-10-28T06:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 5\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 7\nprobability_of_arrival: 60" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-26T23:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-28T02:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.88", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-26 09:04\n - Time at C2: 2024-10-26 06:48\n - Radial speed: 1523.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 53 deg\n - Eruption location: S32E54\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 862.90 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-28 02:20 (i.e. predicted transit time: 44.55 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-27T00:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-28T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.52", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-10-26T09:40Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): 49E\nLatitude (deg): 33S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 48\n\nNotes: Previous fit had faster speed of ~1750 km/s. Given priming of environment a slightly earlier arrival is favoured than the time listed. Lower confidence in arrival time as a result.\nSpace weather advisor: T St Vincent" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-27T02:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-28T00:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.83", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-27T12:18:26Z\n## Message ID: 20241027-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-10-26T06:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241026-AL-007). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 40 ensemble members (see notes section), 10 (25%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-10-27T20:54Z and 2024-10-28T04:22Z (average arrival 2024-10-28T00:46Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 67% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-26_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA074/20241026_064800_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA074_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-26_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA074/20241026_064800_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA074_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-26_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA074/20241026_064800_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA074_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-26_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA074/Detailed_results_20241026_064800_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA074.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-27T06:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-28T08:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.45, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.01, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.42", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/10/26 06:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 09:30Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 5:50\nPOS Midpoint: 12:25Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:45\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.61\nTravel Time: ~8.61 * 5:45 = 49:30\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-28T08:10Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/10/26 11:26Z\n\n***** UPDATE: A wrong value was entered into the initial prediction. The invalid value was a POS Difference of 4:50 rather than 5:50." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-27T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-28T13:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.22", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1523.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 872.589\nAcceleration: -1.23872\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 195793.23\nDuration in days: 2.2661254\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.24 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 630.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 28/10/2024 Time: 13:11 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-28T05:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.8, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.8, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1720.73", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-28T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1720.73", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-10-24T03:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-10-24T03:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-10-26T15:34Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an X3.3 flare starting at 2024-10-24T03:30Z from AR 3869 (approx. S17E68). Brightening and post eruptive arcades are observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/335, EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines are best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also seen from STEREO A EUV 195/304. Arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 15nt to 22nt. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 385 km/s to 511 km/s at 16:09Z, with an increase in temperature observed as well. The signature was preceded by a prior enhancement in solar wind parameters, most notably magnetic field components, associated with IPS: 2024-10-26T11:35Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-24T12:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-26T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.62", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-24T12:57:44Z\n## Message ID: 20241024-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-10-24T03:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1606 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 48 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -54/-24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-10-24T03:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-25T11:26Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-10-25T02:47Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-24T23:53Z, and the flank may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-26T00:00Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-26T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-26T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-24T03:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241024_055700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241024_055700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241024_055700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241024_055700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241024_055700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241024_055700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241024_055700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241024_055700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241024_055700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241024_055700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-10-24T03:48:00-CME-001) is associated with X3.3 flare with ID 2024-10-24T03:30:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13869 (S17E68) which peaked at 2024-10-24T03:57Z (see notifications 20241024-AL-001 and 20241024-AL-002).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-24T13:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-26T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.42", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 41024\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 24 Oct 2024, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2024 10CM FLUX: 187 / AP: 017 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 25 Oct 2024 10CM FLUX: 189 / AP: 007 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2024 10CM FLUX: 191 / AP: 037\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph data starting at around 03:48 UTC on October 24. The CME is directed primarily to the southeast from Earth's perspective and is associated with the X3.3 flare from NOAA AR 3869, along with Type II and Type IV radio emissions detected at 03:46 UTC on October 24. The CME has an estimated velocity exceeding 1300 km/s. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow could potentially arrive on October 26. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.\n\n---------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-24T13:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-26T15:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.77, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.16, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.00", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/10/24 03:50Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 06:10Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:30Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 7:20\nPOS Midpoint: 09:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~10\nTravel Time: ~10 * 6:00 = 60:01\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-26T15:51Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/10/24 13:33Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-24T16:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-26T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.87", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-10-24T06:50Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1383\nLongitude (deg): E44\nLatitude (deg): S22\nHalf-angular width (deg): 55\n\nNotes: Moderate confidence fit, but adjusted for more 'front-sided ejecta'\nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-24T22:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-25T23:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.18, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 1.35, "confidenceInPercentage" : 9.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.97", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-24T22:29:59Z ## Message ID: 20241024-AL-004 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-10-24T03:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241024-AL-003). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 32 ensemble members (see notes section), 3 (9%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-10-25T21:17Z and 2024-10-26T00:49Z (average arrival 2024-10-25T23:28Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-24_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA073/20241024_034800_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA073_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-24_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA073/20241024_034800_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA073_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-24_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA073/20241024_034800_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA073_Earth_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2024-10-24T03:48:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Lucy at 2024-10-25T11:26Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-10-25T02:47Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-24T23:53Z, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow) at 2024-10-26T00:00Z and STEREO A (glancing blow) at 2024-10-26T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20241024-AL-003).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-24_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA073/Detailed_results_20241024_034800_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA073.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-24T23:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-25T23:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.73", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-24 05:57\n - Time at C2: 2024-10-24 03:48\n - Radial speed: 1606.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 48 deg\n - Eruption location: S24E54\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 887.80 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-25 23:03 (i.e. predicted transit time: 43.25 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-25T01:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-26T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.72", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Oct 25 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity ...\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n\nDue to the location of the source region, the bulk of the X3.3 CME is\nexpected to be to the S and E of Earth. However, some flanking\ninfluence is likely according to modelling efforts. Analysis of several\nmodel outputs suggests a possible glancing blow at Earth early to mid\nday on 26 Apr." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-25T02:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-26T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.07", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 24/0608 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1552\nLongitude (deg): S25\nLatitude (deg): E44\nHalf-angular width (deg): 55\n\nNotes: CME source was about 10-15 degrees closer to the limb than could be captured in the cone, but parameters were chosen to attempt to optimise covering the earth-directed material." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-25T07:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-26T00:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.83, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.83, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.55", "predictionNote" : "Prediction Method: ELEvo\nPredicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T00:57Z (+/-9.83h)\nPredicted Arrival Speed: 912 +/- 201 km/s\n\nCME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): -45.0 longitude, -19.0 latitude \nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 49.0\ninitial CME speed: 1806.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-10-24T05:47Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-25T18:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-26T12:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.88", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1383.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 796.569\nAcceleration: -0.722209\nDuration in seconds: 203559.91\nDuration in days: 2.3560175\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.72 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 649.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/10/2024 Time: 12:20 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-26T06:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 29.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.16667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1757.38", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-26T05:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1757.38", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-10-09T02:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-10-10T14:46Z", "maxKP" : 8.67, "dstMin" : -335, "dstMinTime" : "2024-10-11T01:00Z", "cmeNote" : "Bright fast halo CME associated with the X1.8 class flare from AR 3848 (N13W08) and a significant eruption marked by an EUV wave, a large area of deep dimming and bright post-eruptive arcades. Associated with this CME there was also a initially slowly developing eruption of a very large filament spanning from N20W15 to N15W55 to the northeast of the Active Region 3848 which started prior to the X flare (~2024-10-08T22:19Z).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-09T05:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-10T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.87", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Oct 10 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Wind\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to become disturbed early to mid UTC\nday on 10 Oct. The CME associated with the X1.8 flare has a measured\nvelocity between 1400-1600 km/s, the CME will lose speed as it traverses\ninterplanetary space and is expected to reach Earth with a velocity of\n600-700 km/s according to Enlil model guidance. The solar wind will\nexperience an abrupt jump, or sudden impulse, which will be associated\nwith the shock of the CME. The winds will ease slightly following the\nshock but will maintain higher velocities as the bulk of the magnetic\ncloud moves in. The total magnetic field is expected to increase upon\narrival. CME influences will likely continue into 11 Oct with waning\ninfluences 12 Oct.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nWaning influences from CME arrival caused the geomagnetic field to hit\nG1 (Minor) storming levels between the 03-06 synoptic periods and has\nbeen Active to Unsettled since.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field will remain Quiet to Unsettled prior to the\narrival of the CME associated with the X1.8 flare. After the sudden\nimpulse described in the Solar Wind section arrives at the ACE satellite\nit will be roughly 35-45 minutes (if speeds are 600-700 km/s) before\nmagnetometers on the Earth's surface start to respond. Behind the shock\nwill be the bulk of the magnetic cloud which will maintain a disturbed\ngeomagnetic field for 10 Oct into 11 Oct.\n\nThe magnitude of the flare, the associated protons, the location of the\nregion being near center disk, and a strong consensus on the speed leads\nto high confidence in timing and potential magnitude. Current thinking\nis that the bulk the disturbance will be on 10 Oct with elevated but\nwaning influences into 11 Oct. A G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm Watch has\nbeen issued for 10 Oct and 11 Oct.\n\nCaveats to be considered; there is usually a +/-8 hour time window of\narrival, the current 3-day forecast has an arrival around 10/1200 UTC\nand the orientation of the magnetic cloud is always uncertain. If the Bz\ncomponent of the magnetic field remains northward impacts will be\nminimal but if a sustained southward Bz is what comes in contact with\nEarth's magnetosphere for an extended period then G4, possibly G5\n(Extreme), conditions will be possible.\n\n-Bri" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-09T10:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-10T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.75", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 41009\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Oct 2024, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) \nPREDICTIONS FOR 09 Oct 2024 10CM FLUX: 225 / AP: 016 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 10 Oct 2024 10CM FLUX: 223 / AP: 070 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 11 Oct 2024 10CM FLUX: 221 / AP: 042\n\nCoronal mass ejections: ...A halo CME was detected in LASCO/C2 data around 02:30 UTC on October 09. It is most likely related to the X1.8 flare peaking at 01:56 UTC on October 09 and a large filament eruption west of SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA AR 3848). Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of 1900 km/s. An associated type IV radio emission was detected, starting at 01:43 UTC on October 09. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth around UTC midday on October 10.\n\n-----------\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nAn X1.8 flare was detected, peaking at 01:56 UTC on October 09. It was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA AR 3848). A type II radio emission was detected, starting at 01:44 UTC on October 09.\nA halo CME, most likely related to the X1.8 flare was detected in LASCO/C2 data around 02:30 UTC on October 09. Due to the source location an impact on Earth can be expected. Further analysis of the event is ongoing and will be reported in the daily bulletin.\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has exceeded the 10 pfu threshold since 05:00 UTC on October 09, marking a minor solar radiation storm. It is most likely linked to the X1.8 flare and the halo CME.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n\n-----------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-09T10:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-10T10:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.15", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1509.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1591.26\nAcceleration: -5.67585\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 117512.41\nDuration in days: 1.3600974\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -5.68 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 924.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/10/2024 Time: 10:50 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-09T10:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-11T09:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.13", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1509.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 864.987\nAcceleration: -1.18569\nDuration in seconds: 197647.68\nDuration in days: 2.2875889\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.19 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 630.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/10/2024 Time: 09:06 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-09T13:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-10T14:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.43", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T13:20:54Z\n## Message ID: 20241009-AL-008\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241009-AL-007). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-10T11:16Z, Mars at 2024-10-12T14:48Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-09T19:42Z, and STEREO A at 2024-10-10T18:14Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-10T14:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 8-9 (severe to extreme).\n\n \nParameters of this O-type CME (not updated) are:\n\nStart time of the event: 2024-10-09T02:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1509 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 8/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.8 flare from Active Region 3848 (N13W08) with ID 2024-10-09T01:25:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-09T01:56Z (see notifications 20241009-AL-001, 20241009-AL-002) and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-10-09T03:50:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-004, 20241009-AL-006), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-10-09T05:05:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-003, 20241009-AL-006), SEP at SOHO with ID 2024-10-09T06:01:00-SEP-001 and with ID 2024-10-09T06:01:00-SEP-002 (see notification 20241009-AL-006), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-10-09T08:55:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-005, 20241009-AL-006).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-09T13:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-10T11:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.94, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.22, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.80", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/10/08 02:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 06:15Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 06:45Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:30\nPOS Midpoint: 06:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.55\nTravel Time: ~7.55 * 4:30 = 33:59\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-10T11:59Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/10/09 12:56Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-09T15:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-10T14:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.58, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.58, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.78", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): 8.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 45.0\n\ninitial CME speed: 1509.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-10-09T04:16Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-09T17:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-10T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.28", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-09T17:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-10T14:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.03", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-09 03:31\n - Time at C2: 2024-10-09 02:12\n - Radial speed: 2112.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 46 deg\n - Eruption location: N09W19\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 1039.60 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-10 14:54 (i.e. predicted transit time: 36.70 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-10T02:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-10T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.23", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-10-10T15:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 90%\nMax Kp Range: 6-9" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-10T15:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 93.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2142.18", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-10T14:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 92.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2142.18", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-10-04T04:13Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-10-07T22:12Z", "maxKP" : 7.33, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "PRELIMINARY: This CME is faintly visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and to the south in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source appears to be two eruptions in close proximity to each other in the SW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk. A dimming region possibly associated with a faint filament eruption is visible in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2024-10-04T02:00Z in the SW near ARs 13842, 13839, and 13844 followed by moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 171 starting around 2024-10-04T03:00Z in the SW below ARs 13844, 13843, and 13836. The moving/opening field lines are largely visible heading to the west while the dimming appears to have some southern directionality. A third separate eruption from AR 13842 (an M4.0 flare) is likely associated with an overlapping CME feature. Both SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs have data gaps during this event. May potentially have arrived as a magnetic field enhancement near 2024-10-07T22:12Z embedded in ongoing arrival signature which started 2024-10-06; further analysis of this event is currently ongoing.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T23:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T19:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.10", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Mars, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth, Dawn)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-04T23:06:57Z\n## Message ID: 20241004-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241004-AL-001) now simulated with the CME with ID 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001. \n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined front of the two CMEs may affect Dawn (glancing blow), Mars, STEREO A, and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Mars at 2024-10-07T13:49Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-06T07:57Z, while the flank of the 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 will reach Dawn at 2024-10-16T13:00Z and the flank of the 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001 CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-07T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. The combined front of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-06T19:18Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n\nCME parameters are:\n\n1: C-type CME with the start time 2024-10-03T20:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~646 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 51/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: C-type CME with the start time 2024-10-04T04:13Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~832 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001, 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nThe CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.7 flare from Active Region 13843 (S10W47) with ID 2024-10-03T20:09:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-03T20:28Z (see notifications 20241003-AL-005, 20241003-AL-006).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-05T03:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-07T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.20", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 04/1012 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 589\nLongitude (deg): W24\nLatitude (deg): S26\nHalf-angular width (deg): 36\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-05T06:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T14:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.20", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 09:16\n - Time at C2: 2024-10-04 04:13\n - Radial speed: 832.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: S19W22\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: M4.0 (S16W17). Peak at 2024-10-04 04:36\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 671.71 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-06 14:14 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.03 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-05T17:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-07T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.20", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-10-04T10:40Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 585\nLongitude (deg): 13W\nLatitude (deg): 20S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 23\n\nNotes: Glancing impact. Low confidence in fit due to filament eruptions from SW disc at similar times.\nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-05T23:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-07T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.80", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIGRAM 41005\n...\nCoronal mass ejections: A faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in\nSOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 04:24 UTC on Oct 04 (as detected by CACTUS tool),\non the W limb. First analysis of this CME shows that it was possibly\nassociated with the filament eruption in the SW quadrant of the Sun. It has\na projected speed of abput 550 km/s and a projected width of about 114\ndegree (as detected by CACTUS tool). It will possibly miss the Earth, but a\nglancing blow may be possible on Oct 07. No other Earth-directed CMEs were\ndetected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n sidctech@oma.be\n \n \n 2024-10-05T23:24:05\n \n \n 453\n \n 0\n \n CME_arrival\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2024-10-07T04:00:00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-07T03:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.4, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.6, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2206.75", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-07T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2206.75", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-10-03T20:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-10-07T22:12Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "PRELIMINARY: CME with an auriform presentation in both the outline of its bulk and shock, seen to the west in SOHO. Associated with a strong eruption from AR3843 near S10W50 following an M6.7-class flare; an EUV wave is seen in SDO 193 and GOES 284. May potentially have arrived as a magnetic field enhancement near 2024-10-07T22:12Z embedded in ongoing arrival signature which started 2024-10-06; further analysis of this event is currently ongoing.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T00:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-07T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "93.67", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-04T00:32:20Z\n## Message ID: 20241004-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-10-03T20:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~646 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 51/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2024-10-07T17:04Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-06T12:02Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-07T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.7 flare from Active Region 13843 (S10W47) with ID 2024-10-03T20:09:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-03T20:28Z (see notifications 20241003-AL-005, 20241003-AL-006).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T08:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T07:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 13.9, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-38.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "85.95", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 800 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 500 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 45 deg\n\nPredicted transit time = 58.7 ± 13.9 h\nPredicted Vmax = 575.4 ± 109.8 km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T12:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T01:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-44.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.60", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-03 23:43\n - Time at C2: 2024-10-03 20:36\n - Radial speed: 1077.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 50 deg\n - Eruption location: N01W41\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 729.10 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-06 01:46 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.18 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T17:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-07T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.58", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-10-04T01:45Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 703\nLongitude (deg): 39W\nLatitude (deg): 09S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 34\n\nNotes: First guess fit not incorporating all the shock. Enlil models a miss or perhaps a glancing blow with the bulk passing ahead. Low confidence with further analysis ongoing.\nSpace weather advisor: AT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T22:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-46.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.70", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 03/2331 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1172\nLongitude (deg): W30\nLatitude (deg): S12\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T23:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T19:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.10", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Mars, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth, Dawn)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-04T23:06:57Z\n## Message ID: 20241004-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241004-AL-001) now simulated with the CME with ID 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001. \n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined front of the two CMEs may affect Dawn (glancing blow), Mars, STEREO A, and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Mars at 2024-10-07T13:49Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-06T07:57Z, while the flank of the 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 will reach Dawn at 2024-10-16T13:00Z and the flank of the 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001 CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-07T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. The combined front of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-06T19:18Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n\nCME parameters are:\n\n1: C-type CME with the start time 2024-10-03T20:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~646 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 51/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: C-type CME with the start time 2024-10-04T04:13Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~832 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001, 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nThe CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.7 flare from Active Region 13843 (S10W47) with ID 2024-10-03T20:09:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-03T20:28Z (see notifications 20241003-AL-005, 20241003-AL-006).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-05T01:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T02:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.87, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.99, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-43.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.08", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/10/03 20:35Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 02:30Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 06:00Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:30\nPOS Midpoint: 04:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:40\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: \nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.09\nTravel Time: ~7.09 * 7:40 = 54:21\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-06T02:56Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/10/05 01:03Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-05T22:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-45.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.20", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIGRAM 41004\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Oct 2024, 1257UT\n...\n Third CME was\nobserved in C2 images at 20:36 UTC on Oct 03, on the West limb. It was\nassocited with a M6.7 flare, which peaked at 20:28 UTC on Oct 03, produced\nby the SIDC Sunspot Group 272 (NOAA AR 3843, S07 W45). Associated type II\nradio emissions were detected at 20:12 UTC, during this flaring activity.\nThe associated EUV wave was also observed. It has a projected width of\nabout 106 degree and a projected speed of about 645 km/s (as detected by\nCACTUS tool). It may impact the Earth on Oct 06-07. No other Earth-directed\nCMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24\nhours.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n sidctech@oma.be\n \n \n 2024-10-05T22:00:13\n \n \n 452\n \n 0\n \n CME_arrival\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2024-10-06T01:00:00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T11:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.83333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.83333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-34.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2206.75", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T05:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-41.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2206.75", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-10-03T12:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T06:55Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Full halo CME observed in SOHO LASCO, and full halo directed slightly more eastward in STEREO COR2A. The source is an X9.0 flare from AR 3842 observed in many wavelengths but mainly SDO AIA 131, starting at 2024-10-03T12:08Z and peaking at T12:18Z. Also observed as an EUV wave and dimming in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 284, with surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature is characterized by a shock: a sharp initial jump in magnetic field (Bz: 6.16nT to 14.46nT, Bt: 8.41nT to 14.94nT) with continued fluctuation as the signature has progressed (peak Bt is 16.2nT). There were also enhancements in solar wind speed (approx. 372km/s to 525km/s), temperature (approx. 75kK to approx. 250kK) and particle density (approx. 1p/cc to approx. 3p/cc). Bz has remained mostly positive in the initial phase. While this signature is likely the result of the arrival of the 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME associated with the X9.0 flare from AR 3842, several preceding CMEs may have been swept into the front of the faster 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-03T17:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-05T21:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.82", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33709/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=863.0, HalfAngle=53.0, Time21.5=2024-10-03T16:29Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-10-05T21:49Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =29.7 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.2\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-05T16:59Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-07T01:21Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-05T16:34Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_162900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-03T17:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T04:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.78", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Lucy, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T17:08:34Z\n## Message ID: 20241003-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-10-03T12:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~822 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 3/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), Lucy, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-06T03:54Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-05T22:13Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2024-10-17T00:00Z and Mars at 2024-10-07T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-06T03:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001) is associated with X9.0 flare from Active Region 3842 (S15W05) with ID 2024-10-03T12:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-03T12:18Z (see notifications 20241003-AL-001, 20241003-AL-002).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-03T18:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-05T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.17", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n:Product: Forecast Discussion\n:Issued: 2024 Oct 04 0030 UTC\n# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center\n#\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels with six M-Class flares and one\nX-Class flare. The X9.0 occurred at 03/1208 UTC from Region 3842\n(S15W08, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The flare produced a Type II Radio Sweep\nwith an estimated velocity of 582 km/s, a Type IV Radio Sweep, as well\nas a Castelli U-burst Tenflare. The flare had little, to no impact to\nthe structural integrity of Region 3842, the region continues to\nmaintain its complexity with shearing across the delta in the\nintermediate area.\n\nOther regions that experienced growth were Regions 3843 (S09W39,\nEhi/beta-delta) and 3844 (S15W30, Dki/beta-gamma-delta). Regions 3842\nand 3848 (N13E56, Dkc/beta-gamma) are large and complex but have\nremained relatively stable in their area and length.\n\nThe CME associated with the aforementioned X9.0 has been the primary\nfocus. Considerable dimming can be seen in GOES-16 SUVI 195 imager\naround Region 3842 at 03/1217. A halo CME was observed in SOHO/Lasco\nimagery starting at 03/1248 UTC with the bulk of the ejecta coming off\nthe south part of the disk. There were multiple eruptions to the NE and\nNW which are likely sympathetic events associated to the CMEs primary\neruption but not originating out of Region 3842.\n\nThe two filament eruptions that occurred off the NE limb at 03/0748 UTC\nand SW at 03/0909 UTC that were mentioned in the previous discussion\nwere absorbed by the X9 CME in the model depictions.\n\nEjecta can be seen in coronagraph imagery associated with the M6.7 that\noccurred at 03/2009 from Region 3843. Analysis is underway at the time\nof this writing.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a\nchance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flares on 04-06 Oct. ARs 3841,\n3842, 3843, 3844, and 3848 are the main areas of interest due to their\nsize and magnetic complexity.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels\nexhibiting diurnal variance. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was\nat background levels. The 10 MeV proton flux remained at background\nlevels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal\nto moderate levels reaching its peak during the diurnal maxima through\nmuch of the 04 Oct UTC day. With the anticipated CME arrivals, electron\nflux at geostationary orbit will likely become suppressed with each\narrival, rebounding to moderate levels thereafter. There is a chance for\nthe greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaching the S1 (Minor) threshold on\n04-06 Oct due to the enhanced flare potential from multiple,\nmagnetically complex regions on the disk.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were at nominal levels for much of the day with\nwind speeds ranging from 300-350 km/s. Over the last six hours, wind\nspeeds have been on the steady rise towards 400 km/s. Total field ranged\nfrom 3-7 nT while the Bz has component has varied between +/-5 nT. Phi\nangle was negative.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels prior\nto CME arrival. A disturbance in the parameters is expected with shock\narrival 04 Oct from the first CME and elevated parameters continuing\nthrough 06 Oct with the second CME. The current WSA-Enlil run shows the\nfirst CME enhancing solar wind speeds to around 600 km/s and the second\nto roughly 850 km/s.\n\nWith these speeds, modeling shows a roughly 24 hour difference between\nthe two CME arrivals. This will result in a dampening of the solar winds\nand relaxing of the magnetic field components between the two with an\nimmediate rise when the second CME arrives. Depending on how close the\narrival times of the CMEs will be to each other will greatly dictate the\nresponse of the solar wind parameters. Solar wind parameters will likely\nremain elevated into 06 Oct.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.\n\n.Forecast...\nWith the arrival of two CMEs over the next three days the geomagnetic\nfield has a chance of reaching Strong (G3) geomagnetic storming levels\npossibly Extreme (G4) levels. Given the strength of the two flares, the\nposition of the region, and the magnetic complexity of the producing\nregion, a Kp=7 (G3, Strong conditions) is possible during one, maybe two\nsynoptic periods during the three days. Current modeling suggests the\nCME associated with the X7.1 flare that occurred on 01/2220 is likely to\narrive 04 Oct with possible arrival early 05 Oct and the CME associated\nwith the X9.0 is likely to arrive late 05 Oct, early 06 Oct. \n\nThe current geomagnetic forecast follows the CME driven WSA-Enlil run\ninitialized at 03/1700 UTC on the SWPC website. The model analysis shows\na roughly 24 hour window between the two arrivals. However, there could\nbe a +/-8 hour time difference from these modelled times to account for\nspeed variability. It is possible that the first CME could arrive later\nand the second CME could arrive sooner...if this scenario were to\nhappen, then the two CMEs would be arriving closer together - centered\non 05 Oct. - reducing the lull in solar wind parameters and making for a\nstronger arrival. If this occurs there is a chance G4 (Severe)\ngeomagnetic storming conditions could occur and products will be\nadjusted accordingly.\n\nThe previous Watches have been modified to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm\nWatches for all three days to account for the now two CMEs and the\ndifferencing in timing between model simulations.\n\n:Product: Geomagnetic Forecast\n:Issued: 2024 Oct 03 2205 UTC\n# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center\n#\nNOAA Ap Index Forecast\nObserved Ap 02 Oct 007\nEstimated Ap 03 Oct 017\nPredicted Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 054-094-072\n\nNOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct\nActive 05/05/05\nMinor storm 20/15/20\nModerate storm 30/30/30\nStrong-Extreme storm 35/40/35\n\nNOAA Kp index forecast 04 Oct - 06 Oct\n Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct 06\n00-03UT 3.00 5.33 6.33 \n03-06UT 3.33 6.00 6.67 \n06-09UT 4.00 6.33 6.33 \n09-12UT 4.33 6.33 6.33 \n12-15UT 6.67 6.33 5.33 \n15-18UT 6.33 6.33 5.33 \n18-21UT 6.33 7.00 4.67 \n21-00UT 4.67 6.67 4.33" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-03T19:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-05T23:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.50", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-03 16:29\n - Time at C2: 2024-10-03 12:48\n - Radial speed: 863.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 53 deg\n - Eruption location: S04E03\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 664.90 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-05 23:27 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.67 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-03T19:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T01:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.40", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a4b1\nEjecta settings d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrzqs\ncormode: single\n\n\nResults based off a 4-CME bulk simulation (please see https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33720/1) to determine if CME 2024-10-03T12:48Z, associated with an X9.0-class solar flare, would be altered by the initial fronts of CMEs 2024-10-01T23:09Z, 2024-10-02T06:36Z, and 2024-10-02T14:24Z. From timeline inspection and comparison with the single simulation of CME 2024-10-03T12:48Z by itself, we do see the Earth arrival associated with CME 2024-10-03T12:48Z pushed from 2024-10-06T04:30Z (1-CME simulation) to 2024-10-06T01:30Z (4-CME simulation). This earlier arrival is added to CME Scoreboard. All directly listed impacts to locations on DONKI are from the initial fronts associated with CMEs 2024-10-01T23:09Z, 2024-10-02T06:36Z, and 2024-10-02T14:24Z as both fronts did not combine." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-03T22:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-05T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.97", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T01:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-05T18:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.09, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.07, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.82", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/10/03 12:35Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 19:30Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 20:10Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:40\nPOS Midpoint: 19:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.5\nTravel Time: ~7.5 * 7:15 = 54:22\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-05T18:57Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/10/04 01:02Z\n\n\n\n\n\n*** Previous Submission ***\n\nTime of Launch: 2024/10/03 12:35Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 15:10Z; 14Rsun; W Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:20Z; 14Rsun; E Direction\nPOS Difference: 00:10\nPOS Midpoint: 15:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 2:40\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~19.13\nTravel Time: ~19.13 * 2:40 = 51:00\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-05T15:35Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/10/03 15:49Z\n\n*** Previous Submission ***" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T03:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-05T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.87", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time:2024-10-05T23:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 80%\nMax Kp Range: 5-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T08:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T06:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.7, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.58", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 600 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 500 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 4 deg\n\nPredicted transit time = 65.7 ± 9.7 h\nPredicted Vmax = 525.8 ± 61.9 km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T09:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T01:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.43", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIGRAM 41004\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Oct 2024, 1257UT\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was very high over\nthe past 24 hours, with an X-class flare and 7 M-class flares identified.\nThe largest flare was an X9.0 flare (SIDC Flare 2210) peaking on Oct 03 at\n12:18 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active\nRegions 3823, 3842). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 257; AR\n3823, 3842) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its\nphotospheric magnetic field. \n\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in\nSOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 12:48 UTC on Oct 03. This CME was associated with\nan X9.0 flare, which peaked at 12:18 UTC on Oct 03, produced by the SIDC\nSunspot Group 257 (NOAA AR 3842, S15 W03). Associated type IV and type II\nradio emissions were detected at 12:17 UTC and 12:18 UTC, respectively,\nduring this flaring activity. The EUV wave was also observed. It has a\nprojected speed of about 850 km/s. With its source region located closer to\nthe central meridian, it is expected to impact the Earth on Oct 05-06.\n\n\nsidctech@oma.be\n \n \n 2024-10-04T09:29:57\n \n \n 450\n \n 0\n \n CME_arrival\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2024-10-06T01:15:00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T11:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-05T20:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.83, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.83, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.33", "predictionNote" : "Prediction Method: ELEvo\nPredicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-05T20:26Z (± 6.83h)\nPredicted Arrival Speed: 657 ± 94 km/s\n\nPrediction Method Notes:\nCME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): 0.0 longitude, -12.0 latitude \nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 46.0\ninitial CME speed: 842.5 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-10-03T16:36Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T19:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-05T21:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.62", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 863.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 927.817\nAcceleration: -2.01377\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 205292.89\nDuration in days: 2.3760751\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.01 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 514.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 05/10/2024 Time: 21:49 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T19:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-06T06:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.58", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 863.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 514.209\nAcceleration: 0.928046\nDuration in seconds: 237146.52\nDuration in days: 2.7447514\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.93 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 734.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 06/10/2024 Time: 06:40 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-10-04T22:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-05T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.67", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 03/1533 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1115\nLongitude (deg): 0\nLatitude (deg): 0\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-05T22:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 84.8, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.9, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.3, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2246.03", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-10-05T22:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2246.03", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-09-23T20:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-09-23T20:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-09-28T07:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Slow, loop-shaped CME seen propagating to the southwest in SOHO C2/C3 starting around 2024-09-23T20:48Z and also seen in STEREO A which accelerates with time. May be associated with two areas of dimming seen best in GOES 284 which may represent footpoints for this eruption near S40W05 and S25W40 (centerpoint S33W23) located near the vicinity of AR3827. The CME arrival is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from approx. 4nT to 7nT, reaching approx. 9.2nT. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 300 km/s to 350 km/s. An increase in density and temperature is also observed.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-24T12:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-28T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "90.98", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33559/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-09-23T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=23.0, Lat.=-38.0, Speed=338.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2024-09-24T10:13Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-09-28T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-30T22:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-28T04:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-28T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2437.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-28T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2437.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-09-14T15:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T22:49Z", "maxKP" : 7.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo CME seen to the southeast in SOHO C2/C3 and not yet observed in STEREO A due to a data gap. Associated with a powerful X4.5-class solar flare from AR3825 (S18E55) and subsequent strong eruption, characterized by intense brightening in SDO 131 and fast ejecta seen best in GOES 284 as well as a large, fast EUV wave associated with the eruption traversing back towards the northwest seen best in SDO 171/193 that covers approximately half the solar disk. The arrival of this CME is characterized by a significant increase in B_total from ~9nT to ~15nT, eventually reaching 20 nT by 2024-09-17T01:35Z with simultaneous increases in solar wind temperature, density, and velocity, which reached a peak sustained velocity of 560 km/s. By 2024-09-17T01:39Z, the magnetic field components begin to stabilize with time with steady -Bx and -Bz components dominate the signature until 2024-09-17T12:00Z. There is evidence of a clear flux rope signature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-14T19:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T15:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.07", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-14T19:45:58Z\n## Message ID: 20240914-AL-007\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240914-AL-006). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-09-16T14:25Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-15T12:01Z, and STEREO A at 2024-09-17T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-16T15:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n\nUpdated CME parameters are (event upgraded/downgraded to O-type):\n\nStart time of the event: 2024-09-14T15:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1070 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 51 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -50/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_180800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_180800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_180800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_180800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_180800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_180800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_180800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_180800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001) is associated with X4.5 flare from AR 13825 (S18E55) with ID 2024-09-14T15:13:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-09-14T15:29Z (see notifications 20240914-AL-004, 20240914-AL-005).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-14T19:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T08:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.52, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.19, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.85", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/09/14 15:25Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 18:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 21:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:20\nPOS Midpoint: 19:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: \nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.71\nTravel Time: ~9.71 * 4:15 = 41:15\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-09-16T08:40Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/09/14 18:47Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-14T20:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T03:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.82", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-09-14 17:06\n - Time at C2: 2024-09-14 15:36\n - Radial speed: 2202.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 50 deg\n - Eruption location: N01E51\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 1066.60 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-09-16 03:21 (i.e. predicted transit time: 35.75 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-14T21:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-15T20:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.95", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33445/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=2040.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-09-14T17:02Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-09-15T20:52Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =19.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.8\n(kp)90=8\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-15T20:48Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-15T03:24Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-16T04:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-15T02:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.78", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 14/1818 UTC\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1250\nLongitude (deg): 45E\nLatitude (deg): 0N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 52\n\nNotes: This was for the bulk of the material, with a fit as far east as possible. Shock expected faster by 3-6 hours.\nSpace weather advisor: Lawrence Howard" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-15T02:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T15:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.42", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-15T17:58:54Z ## Message ID: 20240915-AL-002 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240914-AL-007). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 25 ensemble members (see notes section), 25 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-09-16T10:05Z and 2024-09-16T20:27Z (average arrival 2024-09-16T15:32Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 59% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-14_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070/20240914_153600_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-14_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070/20240914_153600_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-14_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070/20240914_153600_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070_Earth_stack.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis CME event (2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-15T12:01Z, Lucy at 2024-09-16T14:25Z, and STEREO A (minor impact) at 2024-09-17T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240914-AL-007).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-14_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070/Detailed_results_20240914_153600_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-15T03:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.28", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-09-16T12:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nMax Kp Range: 5-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-15T06:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T15:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.18", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 2040.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 1153.32\nAcceleration: -3.41162\nDuration in seconds: 173644.05\nDuration in days: 2.0097691\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -3.41 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 560.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/09/2024 Time: 15:50 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-15T10:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-17T09:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.93", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2024 Sep 15 0951 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nAn X4.5 flare was registered by GOES-18 as peaked at 14 Sep 15:29 UTC.\nThis event has caused an increase of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux, although it is not expected to exceed the 10 pfu threshold level.\nA partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seen in LASCO C2/SOHO and COR2/STEREO-A images, is associated with the X4.5 flare. It is expected to become geo-effective at the first half of 17 Sep.\nMore X-class flaring activity is possible in the next 24 hours.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-16T09:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T11:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.25, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.25, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.40", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): -40 deg longitude, +7 deg latitude\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\n\ninitial CME speed: 1555 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-09-14T17:35Z \ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k\n\narrival speed: 874 (+/-176) km/s\n\nhttps://helioforecast.space/cme" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T11:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.57143, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2710.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T11:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2710.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-09-13T10:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-09-13T10:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T04:54Z", "maxKP" : 4.33, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME with a clear front directed towards the northwest in SOHO and north in STEREO A COR2, indicating its directedness towards STEREO A and a bit north. Likely source is is flaring south of AR 3814 (N12W33) around 2024-09-13T08:24Z, accompanied by a medium-sized dimming and minor post-eruptive arcades. This eruption is right at the disk center in STEREO A EUV imagery. In EUVI A 304 we also see a small ejecta directed southwards. The arrival is characterized by small magnetic field increases seen at ACE/DSCOVR between 2024-09-16T04:00Z and 10:00Z and very smooth, stabilizing magnetic field components or evidence for a flux rope occurring near 16:00Z. There also seem to be very minor density and temperature enhancements as well, though these signatures are not as clear. Around 2024-09-16T05:00Z, L1 may passes over one of the flanks, where the flank shock is still visible in simulations, and later, around 2024-09-16T18:00Z, the CME passes over one of the legs of the CME structure.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-13T17:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T05:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.15", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Juno, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-13T17:45:10Z\n## Message ID: 20240913-AL-007\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-09-13T10:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~768 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/28 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-09-13T10:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars (glancing blow) and Juno (minor impact). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-14T18:42Z, STEREO A at 2024-09-16T01:01Z, Mars at 2024-09-18T04:00Z and Juno at 2024-10-01T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-16T04:32Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-13T10:12:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_150000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_150000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_150000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_150000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_150000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_150000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_150000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_150000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_150000_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_150000_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_150000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-13T23:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T11:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.47, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.82, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.97", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/09/13 10:25Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 19:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 01:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:10\nPOS Midpoint: 22:25Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.08\nTravel Time: ~6.08 * 12:00 = 72:58\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-09-16T11:23Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5 (Limited Imagery)\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/09/13 23:53Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-14T01:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-15T23:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.70", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-09-13 15:00\n - Time at C2: 2024-09-13 10:12\n - Radial speed: 768.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 29 deg\n - Eruption location: N28W29\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 636.40 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-09-15 23:41 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.48 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-14T04:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T03:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 1.6, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.42", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-14T14:37:48Z\n## Message ID: 20240914-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-09-13T10:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240913-AL-007). \n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth)\n\n.... Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2024-09-15T22:34Z and 2024-09-16T07:38Z (average arrival 2024-09-16T02:09Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-09-16T00:46Z and 2024-09-16T05:03Z (average arrival 2024-09-16T03:26Z) for 25% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 99% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event is also predicted to have a glancing blow at Mars at 2024-09-18T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) and a minor impact at Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-14T18:42Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240913-AL-007).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/Detailed_results_20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T04:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 37.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2728.05", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-16T04:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 37.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2728.05", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-09-11T02:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-09-11T02:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-09-13T18:05Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first seen in the NE by STEREO A COR2. There is currently no SOHO LASCO imagery for this event due to a data gap from 11/02:36Z to 11/07:12Z. The source of this event is an M1.0 class flare peaking at 2024-09-10T23:50Z and subsequent eruption from AR 3814 (N16W03) as seen in SDO AIA 193, 211 and STEREO A EUVI 304. The flare peaked at 2024-09-10T23:50Z, however the eruption continued through approx. 11/01:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 304. Opening field lines, slight dimming and a possible EUV wave can be seen propagating towards the NE in SDO AIA 193, 211 and STEREO A EUVI 195. Due to the lack of SOHO data available to triangulate the source, there is some degree of uncertainty in the latitude and longitude of this CME. Characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from approx. 7nT to 9nT with an increase in density and a sustained period of southward field from 2024-09-13T17:45Z from 2024-09-13T21:30Z. There is no clear increase in solar wind speed or temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-11T18:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-13T20:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.68", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-11T18:24:58Z\n## Message ID: 20240911-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-09-11T02:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~742 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 3/25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-09-11T02:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-12T10:14Z and STEREO A at 2024-09-13T19:54Z. The flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-09-14T00:00Z and Mars at 2024-09-16T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-13T20:10Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-11T02:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240911_062900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240911_062900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240911_062900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240911_062900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240911_062900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240911_062900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240911_062900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240911_062900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240911_062900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-09-11T02:23:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.0 flare from AR 3814 (N16W03) with ID 2024-09-10T23:38:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-09-10T23:50Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-11T18:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-14T03:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.14, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.32, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.53", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/09/11 02:35Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:00\nPOS Midpoint: 12:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:55\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.37\nTravel Time: ~7.37 * 9:55 = 73:07\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-09-14T03:42Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/09/11 15:51Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-11T21:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-13T16:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.08", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-09-11 06:29\n - Time at C2: 2024-09-11 02:23\n - Radial speed: 742.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 29 deg\n - Eruption location: N25W03\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 628.60 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-09-13 16:42 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.32 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-12T14:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-13T15:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.67, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.67, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.42", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): +3 longitude, +25 latitude\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\n\ninitial CME speed: 742.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-09-11T06:29Z \ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k\n\n\narrival speed: 611 (+/-84) km/s\n\nhttps://helioforecast.space/cme" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-12T22:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-14T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.17", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-09-11T06:57Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 709\nLongitude (deg): E01\nLatitude (deg): N30\nHalf-angular width (deg): 31\n\nNotes: Diffuse eruption, low confidence as fitted mainly to St A cor2. \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-13T21:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2786.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-13T20:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2786.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-09-10T00:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-09-12T02:53Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide CME associated with a long duration M1.2-class flare from Active Region 3814 (N15E10) seen predominantly to the northeast in SOHO C2 imagery and east-northeast in STEREO A COR2. The eruptive signature is seen as a large-broad scale destabilization seen as a surge-like brightening in SDO AIA 131, opening and brightening field lines in GOES SUVI 284 with additional dimming and an EUV wave to the north, and bright, high post-eruptive arcades seen best in SDO AIA 171/193/304. There is a data gap in real-time in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 at the start of the CME from approx. 2024-09-09T21:48Z to 2024-09-10T01:25Z. CME arrival detected by ACE starting at 2024-09-12T02:53Z. Increase in B_total to about 16nT with subsequent jump in B_total peaking at ~26nT at ~2024-09-12T09:35Z. This arrival is accompanied by an increase in velocity from ~360 km/s to ~420nT, followed by a second jump in velocity to ~550 km/s corresponding to the additional jumps in B_total. There is also an associated increase in temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-10T11:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-13T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "26.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.33", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2024 Sep 10 1057 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) can seen in LASCO C-2/SOHO images as launched around 10 Sep 01:00 UTC. It originates from NOAA active region 3814 and is associated the M1.2 flare that peaked at 10 Sep 00:28 and the type II radio emission at 9 Sep 23:45 UTC. Preliminary analysis indicates a speed of 600 km/s and arrival either at the second half of 12 Sep or the first half of 13 Sep.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-10T12:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-12T16:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.10", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-10T12:47:33Z\n## Message ID: 20240910-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-09-10T00:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~755 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -5/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-09-12T19:07Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-11T09:26Z, and STEREO A at 2024-09-12T16:03Z, and the flank will reach Mars at 2024-09-14T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-12T16:57Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-8 (minor to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240910_043700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240910_043700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240910_043700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240910_043700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240910_043700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240910_043700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240910_043700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240910_043700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240910_043700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.2 flare with ID 2024-09-09T23:47:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13814 (N15E10) which peaked at 2024-09-10T00:28Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-10T16:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-12T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.96, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.8, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.70", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/09/10 00:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 06:00Z; 25Rsun; N Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 07:00Z; 25Rsun; S Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:00\nPOS Midpoint: 06:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:10\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.35\nTravel Time: ~9.35 * 6:10 = 57:40\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-09-12T10:00Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n* This forecast might be updated if more coronagraph imagery becomes available.\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/09/10 13:57Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-10T17:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-13T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "30.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.73", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-09-10T12:52Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 630 km/s \nLongitude (deg): W19\nLatitude (deg): N09\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: Mod confidence\nSpace weather advisor: Yannick F." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-10T20:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-12T14:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.62", "predictionNote" : "   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - No shock\n\nCME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-09-10 04:37\n - Time at C2: 2024-09-10 00:23\n - Radial speed: 755.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 43 deg\n - Eruption location: N26E05\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 632.50 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-09-12 14:16 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.90 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-10T20:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-12T16:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.20", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-10T22:07:55Z ## Message ID: 20240910-AL-003 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240910-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2024-09-12T12:04Z and 2024-09-12T23:06Z (average arrival 2024-09-12T16:51Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally, the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-09-12T12:24Z and 2024-09-12T22:53Z (average arrival 2024-09-12T16:58Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 66% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-11T09:26Z, Lucy at 2024-09-12T19:07Z, and Mars (glancing blow) at 2024-09-14T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240910-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/Detailed_results_20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-11T03:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-12T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.67", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-09-12T21:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nMax Kp Range: 4-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-11T05:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-12T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.65", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-11T14:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-12T13:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.58, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.58, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.97", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): -5 longitude, +26 latitude\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\n\ninitial CME speed: 755.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-09-10T04:37Z \ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k\n\n\nhttps://helioforecast.space/cme" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-11T16:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-12T16:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "10.40", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 755.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 816.901\nAcceleration: -1.50007\nDuration in seconds: 857432.09\nDuration in days: 9.9239826\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 231720.53\nDuration in days: 2.6819506\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.50 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 469.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/09/2024 Time: 16:45 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-11T16:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-12T20:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "10.38", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 755.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 455.565\nAcceleration: 1.21778\nDuration in seconds: 246137.04\nDuration in days: 2.8488083\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.22 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 755.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/09/2024 Time: 20:45 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-12T19:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 84.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.42857, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.71429, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2826.05", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-12T16:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 84.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2826.05", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-09-08T01:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-09-08T01:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-09-11T14:18Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and as a partial halo in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption centered near N14W20 which deflects NW as it erupts based on SDO/AIA 304 imagery. The eruption begins around 2024-09-08T00:00Z. A faint EUV wave is visible traveling N/NE of the source location despite the filament material deflecting NW as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and GOES SUVI 284. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 304. Characterized by two consecutive enhancements in magnetic field components, the first at 2024-09-11T14:18Z and the second at 2024-09-11T15:40Z with Enhancements in solar wind speed (approx. 343 km/s to approx. 390 km/s), temperature (approx. 26kK to approx. 70 kK), and density (approx. 4 p/cc to approx. 24 p/cc). These enhancements are possibly due to the arrival of CME: 2024-09-08T01:36Z, which arrived at STEREO A at 2024-09-10T21:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-08T17:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-10T23:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.80", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-08T17:30:12Z\n## Message ID: 20240908-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-09-08T01:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~626 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 23/22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-09-08T01:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-09T16:59Z and STEREO A at 2024-09-10T16:04Z and the flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2024-09-11T20:00Z and Mars at 2024-09-12T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-10T23:51Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-08T01:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240908_063900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240908_063900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240908_063900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240908_063900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240908_063900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240908_063900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240908_063900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240908_063900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240908_063900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-08T17:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-10T20:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.97, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.01, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.60", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/09/08 01:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 09:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:00\nPOS Midpoint: 12:20Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.09\nTravel Time: ~6.09 * 11:00 = 66:57\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-09-10T20:17Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/09/08 15:17Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-08T17:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-11T23:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.93, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.03, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.58", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/09/08 01:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 09:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:00\nPOS Midpoint: 12:20Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 5\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.59\nTravel Time: ~8.59 * 11:00 = 94:32\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-09-11T23:52Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/09/08 15:19Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-08T19:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-10T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.30", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-09-08T05:25Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 700\nLongitude (deg): W20\nLatitude (deg): N25\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Duty Forecaster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-09T07:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-11T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.90", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 670.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 729.606\nAcceleration: -1.11561\nDuration in seconds: 253472.82\nDuration in days: 2.9337132\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.12 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 446.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/09/2024 Time: 00:00 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-09T07:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-10T23:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.87", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 670.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 409.410\nAcceleration: 1.43299\nDuration in seconds: 252551.81\nDuration in days: 2.9230534\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.43 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 771.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/09/2024 Time: 23:45 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-09T08:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-10T19:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.27", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-09-08 06:39\n - Time at C2: 2024-09-08 01:36\n - Radial speed: 626.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 41 deg\n - Eruption location: N22W23\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 593.80 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-09-10 19:51 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.27 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-09T15:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-11T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.80", "predictionNote" : "Issued: 2024 Sep 08 1256 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40908\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Sep 2024, 1255UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Sep 2024 10CM FLUX: 222 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Sep 2024 10CM FLUX: 222 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Sep 2024 10CM FLUX: 222 / AP: 007\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours beside de number of complex regions visible on the solar disc, with several C-class flares. The strongest was an C7.2 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3808. The most magnetically complex active regions currently on the disk are NOAA AR 3806 AR 3811, AR 3813 and AR 3815 (beta-gamma). Solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with the possibility of an M-class flare and a chance for isolated X-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in\nLASCO/C2 coronagraph images at 00:36 UTC on September 8. This CME is associated with the filament eruption located at 15 degrees North and 23 degrees West. The projected speed is estimated to be about 600 km/s in the northwest direction. This eruption is believed to be Earth-directed and is currently under analysis. A preliminary estimate suggests an arrival time of September 10." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-09-10T01:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-10T18:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 97.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.93", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-10T01:32:22Z ## Message ID: 20240910-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-09-08T01:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240908-AL-001).\n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, Mars, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2024-09-10T05:38Z and 2024-09-10T18:29Z (average arrival 2024-09-10T10:44Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2024-09-11T03:59Z and 2024-09-11T16:33Z (average arrival 2024-09-11T09:48Z) for 89% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-09-10T12:27Z and 2024-09-11T04:34Z (average arrival 2024-09-10T18:52Z) for 97% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 69% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/Detailed_results_20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-11T01:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 61.4, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.4, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2838.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-09-10T23:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-2838.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-08-23T02:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-08-23T02:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-08-27T07:33Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint partial halo CME visible to the west/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of the CME may be a filament and possible flare starting around 2024-08-23T01:00Z from AR13794 (N20W30) based on SDO/AIA 131 and 304. Dimming is also visible to the SW of the eruption location - best seen in SDO/AIA 211. | Arrival Signature: Interplanetary shock detected by ACE at L1 at 2024-08-27T07:33Z, characterized by sudden increase in B-total from 3nT to 8nT, shortly thereafter rising to 11.8nT. Simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 250 km/s to 325 km/s, increase in temperature from 15,000 Kelvin to 87,000 Kelvin, and increase in density from 2 p/cc to 16 p/cc.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-23T16:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-26T14:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "86.87", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32989/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-08-23T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=31.0, Lat.=-2.0, Speed=461.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-08-23T09:38Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-26T14:22Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =20.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-25T12:19Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-26T08:30Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-28T04:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-24T03:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-26T13:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.2, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.48", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-08-24T12:17:39Z\n## Message ID: 20240824-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-08-23T02:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240823-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 40 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2024-08-25T20:53Z and 2024-08-26T23:55Z (average arrival 2024-08-26T10:49Z) for 97% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2024-08-28T02:53Z and 2024-08-28T02:53Z (average arrival 2024-08-28T02:53Z) for 2% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-08-26T07:38Z and 2024-08-26T21:37Z (average arrival 2024-08-26T13:50Z) for 45% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is an 89% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-23_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066/20240823_020000_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-23_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066/20240823_020000_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-23_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066/20240823_020000_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-23_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066/20240823_020000_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-23_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066/20240823_020000_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-23_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066/20240823_020000_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-23_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066/20240823_020000_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2024-08-23T02:00:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact at Parker Solar Probe at 2024-08-25T12:19Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240823-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-23_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066/Detailed_results_20240823_020000_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA066.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-24T10:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-27T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.55", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIgram 2024-08-24\n\nThe Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in LASCO C2 data at 02:06 UTC on August 23 has been further analyzed. Although the bulk of the CME is directed to the west, an Earth-directed component may arrive at Earth on August 27" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-24T22:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-27T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.72", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-08-23T08:58Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 416\nLongitude (deg): W029\nLatitude (deg): N02\nHalf-angular width (deg): 25\n\nNotes: Glancing impact most likely. \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-26T20:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 41.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3205.38", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-26T19:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3205.38", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-08-14T08:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-08-14T08:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-08-17T13:29Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery and is visible mostly to the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an X1.1 flare and eruption from Active Region 13784 (N14E03) starting around 2024-08-14T06:27Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming is observed in SDO AIA 171 and 193 surrounding the eruption site, and post-eruptive arcades begin to form around 08:30Z. Arrival signature: Interplanetary shock characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal sharply increasing from 7nT at 2024-08-17T13:29Z to 17nT at 13:35Z and a period of negative Bz reaching -17nT, after which Bz stayed mostly positive. A jump in solar wind speed from 333 km/s at 2024-08-17T13:29Z to 432 km/s at 13:34 and sharp increases in temperature to near 200,000 K at 13:34Z and in density initially to 12 p/cc and eventually to 45 p/cc.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-14T12:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-18T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.30", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Aug 16 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n\n...\n\nAnalysis of the CME associated with the X1.1 flare on 14 Aug indicated\nan Earth-directed component, with the bulk of the ejecta arriving as\nearly as late on 17 Aug, but likely early on 18 Aug. Confidence remains\nlow for timing and magnitude. No additional CMEs with an Earth-directed\ncomponent was observed." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-14T17:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-17T05:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.27", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-08-14T17:13:44Z\n## Message ID: 20240814-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-08-14T08:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~616 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -4/19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-08-14T08:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME may reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-08-16T09:30Z, STEREO A at 2024-08-17T06:07Z, and Lucy at 2024-08-18T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-08-17T05:10Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-7 (below minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-08-14T08:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240814_135300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240814_135300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240814_135300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240814_135300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240814_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240814_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240814_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240814_135300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-08-14T08:23:00-CME-001) is associated with an X1.1 flare from Active Region 13784 (N14E03) with ID 2024-08-14T06:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-08-14T06:40Z (see notifications 20240814-AL-001 and 20240814-AL-002).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-14T19:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-17T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.12", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 14/14:56Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 610\nLongitude (deg): 2E\nLatitude (deg): 15N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 33\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Lawrence Howard" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-14T21:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-17T03:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.48", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-08-14 13:53\n - Time at C2: 2024-08-14 08:23\n - Radial speed: 616.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 30 deg\n - Eruption location: N19E04\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 590.80 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-08-17 03:01 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.63 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-14T22:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-17T04:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.55, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.05, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.70", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2024-08-15T00:04:01Z ## Message ID: 20240815-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-08-14T08:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240814-AL-005). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2024-08-16T21:58Z and 2024-08-17T06:28Z (average arrival 2024-08-17T03:23Z) for 53% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally, the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-08-16T22:03Z and 2024-08-17T09:39Z (average arrival 2024-08-17T04:36Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 76% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-14_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA065/20240814_082300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA065_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-14_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA065/20240814_082300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA065_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-14_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA065/20240814_082300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA065_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-14_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA065/20240814_082300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA065_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-14_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA065/20240814_082300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA065_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2024-08-14T08:23:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Parker Solar Probe at 2024-08-16T09:30Z (plus minus 7 hours) and a glancing blow at Lucy 2024-08-18T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240814-AL-005).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-14_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA065/Detailed_results_20240814_082300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA065.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-15T13:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-18T00:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.22, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.84, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.33", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/08/14 07:50Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 20:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 23:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:00\nPOS Midpoint: 22:10Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 14:20\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.17\nTravel Time: ~6.17 * 14:20 = 88:28\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-18T00:18Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/08/15 13:04Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-15T17:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-17T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.12", "predictionNote" : "Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-17T21:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%\nPredicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-16T08:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-17T14:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 13.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.48", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 500 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 350 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 3 deg" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-17T13:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.83333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.16667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3439.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-17T11:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3439.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-08-08T20:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-08-08T20:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T12:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Halo CME first seen by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-08-08T20:00Z, as well as in later frames by C3 and STEREO A COR2. The beginning of this event is not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-08-08T19:38Z to 2024-08-08T22:53Z. The source of this CME is an X1.3 class flare from AR 3777 (S05W25) that peaked at 2024-08-08T19:36Z. This flare can be seen clearly in SDO AIA 94 and 131, along with an EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Resulting field line opening is also visible in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. The arrival of this CME (or the combined front of this CME and 2024-08-08T05:30Z CME) is possibly seen around 2024-08-11T12:00Z. This weak arrival signature is characterized by a gradual increase of solar wind speed to around 510 km/s and rotation of magnetic field components, with Bz eventually reaching -18 nT. ~2024-08-11T12:00Z is likely the start of an interaction region or the sheath between the previous ICME arriving on 2024-08-10 and this CME. 2024-08-12T07:44Z is likely to be the arrival of the flux rope of this CME. Note that there is no shock in this arrival due to the interaction with the previous CME (courtesy of Carlos Peres Alanis, LASSOS team).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T07:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T14:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 14.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 14.6, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.73", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 700 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 450 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 23 deg" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T14:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.95", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIGRAM 40809\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Aug 2024, 1238UT\nSIDC FORECAST \n...\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at high levels\nover the last 24 hours, with 1 X class flare and 4 M-class flares being\nrecorded. The strongest was an X1.3 flare peaking at 19:35 UTC on August\n07. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3777 and had an associated Type\nII radio emission recorded at 19:29 UTC. \n...\nCoronal mass ejections: An asymmetric halo CME mostly directed to the\nsouth-west, was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 19:48 UTC August 08,\nassociated with the X1.3 flare. Initial analysis suggests that this CME\nwould have an Earth directed component and may impact earth late on August\n11.\n\n\nxml version of the CME arrival alert\nexpected arrival time: 2024-08-11T15:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 4\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 7\nprobability_of_arrival: 70\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n sidctech@oma.be\n \n \n 2024-08-09T14:03:51\n \n \n 436\n \n 0\n \n CME_arrival\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2024-08-11T15:00:00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T16:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T12:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.05, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.87, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.92", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/08/08 19:50Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 03:40Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 09:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction\nPOS Difference: 5:20\nPOS Midpoint: 06:20Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.2\nTravel Time: ~6.2 * 10:30 = 65:04\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-11T12:54Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/08/09 14:30Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T16:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.30", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-08-08T19:35Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 750\nLongitude (deg): 8 W\nLatitude (deg): 09 S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 39\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Stuart Webster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T16:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-12T00:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.02", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-08-09T16:59:21Z\n## Message ID: 20240809-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nS-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-08-08T20:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~497 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 1/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-08-08T20:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Lucy (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-08-11T00:53Z, STEREO A at 2024-08-11T13:46Z, and Lucy at 2024-08-12T09:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-08-12T00:02Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-08-08T20:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240809_015300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240809_015300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240809_015300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240809_015300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240809_015300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240809_015300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240809_015300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240809_015300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-08-08T20:00:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.3 flare from AR 3777 (S04W23) with ID 2024-08-08T19:01:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-08-08T19:35Z (see notifications 20240808-AL-002, 20240808-AL-003).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T18:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T19:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.83", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32649/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-08-08T05:30:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-4.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=355.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-08-08T11:31Z\n2024-08-08T20:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=1.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=497.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-08-09T01:53Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-11T19:35Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =28.4 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-10T16:31Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-11T15:30Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-12T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T18:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T11:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.67", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-08-08 23:59\n - Time at C2: 2024-08-08 20:00\n - Radial speed: 699.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N03W03\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 615.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-08-11 11:43 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.72 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T21:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T21:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.50", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2024-08-10T00:52:00Z ## Message ID: 20240810-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-08-08T20:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240809-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2024-08-11T03:05Z and 2024-08-11T16:45Z (average arrival 2024-08-11T09:22Z) for 87% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-08-11T11:28Z and 2024-08-12T07:12Z (average arrival 2024-08-11T21:11Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 64% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA063/20240808_200000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA063_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA063/20240808_200000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA063_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA063/20240808_200000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA063_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA063/20240808_200000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA063_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA063/20240808_200000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA063_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2024-08-08T20:00:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Parker Solar Probe at 2024-08-11T00:53Z and Lucy at 2024-08-12T09:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240809-AL-001).\n\nThis CME event (2024-08-08T20:00:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.3 flare from AR 3777 (S04W23) with ID 2024-08-08T19:01:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-08-08T19:35Z (see notifications 20240808-AL-002, 20240808-AL-003).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA063/Detailed_results_20240808_200000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA063.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-10T16:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.27", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-08-11T16:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nMax Kp Range: 4-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T16:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 76.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3584.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3584.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-08-08T05:30:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-08-08T05:30Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T12:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint halo CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C3 beginning at approximately 2024-08-08T05:30Z. This event is too faint to confidently track in SOHO LASCO C2 or STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is an M1.3 class flare from AR 3777 (S05W15) peaking at 2024-08-08T04:41Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. The arrival of the combined front of this CME and 2024-08-08T20:00Z CME is possibly seen around 2024-08-11T12:00Z. The arrival signature is characterized by a gradual increase of solar wind speed to around 510 km/s and rotation of magnetic field components, with Bz eventually reaching -18 nT. ~2024-08-11T12:00Z is likely the start of an interaction region or the sheath between the previous ICME arriving on 2024-08-10 and this CME. 2024-08-12T07:44Z is likely to be the arrival of the flux rope of this CME. Note that there is no shock in this arrival due to the interaction with the previous CME (courtesy of Carlos Peres Alanis, LASSOS team).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T18:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T19:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.83", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32649/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-08-08T05:30:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-4.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=355.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-08-08T11:31Z\n2024-08-08T20:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=1.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=497.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-08-09T01:53Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-11T19:35Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =28.4 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-10T16:31Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-11T15:30Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-12T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T19:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3584.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T19:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3584.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-08-07T19:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-08-07T19:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T11:55Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source is an M5.0 flare peaking at 2024-08-07T18:54Z from AR 3777. The start of the CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-08-07T17:23Z to 23:09Z. Dimming, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 193, and the eruption appears to be directed towards the southeast. A possible faint, separate halo component may also be seen in early frames of SOHO LASCO C2. Arrival signature (possibly the arrival of this CME, 2024-08-07T14:24Z CME and/or 2024-08-07T03:24Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field components, with B total reaching 11 nT. Solar wind speed increases from 380 km/s to 420 km/s and eventually to over 450 km/s. There is a temporary drop in density to below 1 p/cc (suspect bad density data), followed by an increase of density to just under 10 p/cc. The end of the arrival signature for this CME is possibly ~2024-08-11T12:00Z, where there is possibly an interaction region or sheath between both this ICME and the ICME following it (per LASSOS team's Carlos Peres Alanis).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-08T02:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.92", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32615/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-08-07T19:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-15.0, Speed=375.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2024-08-08T03:19Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-11T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-10T08:10Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-12T10:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-10T20:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-08T15:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-11T11:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.22, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.84, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.60", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/08/07 19:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 08:00Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 11:00Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:00\nPOS Midpoint: 09:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 14:20\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: \nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.17\nTravel Time: ~6.17 * 14:20 = 88:28\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-11T11:38Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/08/08 14:30Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T05:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.33", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: T2024-08-07 23:19\nRadial velocity (km/s): 854\nLongitude (deg): 15\nLatitude (deg): -10\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: The CME associated with the M5 flare seemed perhaps more shockwave than ejected plasma and was faint. The induced geomagnetic activity may be brief." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T08:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.20", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2024 Aug 08 1239 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40808\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Aug 2024, 1238UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2024 10CM FLUX: 325 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Aug 2024 10CM FLUX: 335 / AP: 025 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Aug 2024 10CM FLUX: 340 / AP: 025\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at moderate to high levels over the last 24 hours, with 5 M-class flares being recorded.\nThe strongest was an M5 flare peaking at 18:54 UTC on August 07. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3777 and also had an associated Type II radio emission recorded at 18:48 UTC. This region also produced 3 other M-class flares. NOAA AR 3774 produced an M4.5 flare peaking at 13:40 UTC. These two regions, NOAA AR 3774 (Beta-Gamma-Delta) and NOAA AR 3777 (Beta-Gamma- Delta), increased in size and complexity. NOAA AR 3779 decayed into a plage region. NOAA AR3780 (Beta-Gamma-Delta) is the largest and one of the most complex regions on the disk (beta gamma delta) but produced only C-class flares in the period. A new region emerged near 3781 and was numbered NOAA AR3783. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A faint halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data, first seen around 14:36 UTC August 07. It is possible that this is a combination of a back side event as well as a CME associated with the M4.5 flare peaking at 13:40 UTC from NOAA 3774. A second slow CME directed to the south-east was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 19:00. This may be related to the M5 flare associated with NOAA AR3777. Analysis of these events are ongoing but initial analysis suggest that both could have an Earth directed component which may impact Earth from August 10.\n\n..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T18:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 53.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3609.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T18:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3609.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-08-07T14:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T11:55Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 in real-time due to a data gap starting at 2024-08-07T14:09Z. Eruption with M4.5 flare from AR 3744 (approx. S10W22), field line movement, and possible faint EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are best seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. The eruption is also visible from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 195. Arrival signature (possibly the combined front of this CME, 2024-08-07T03:24Z CME and/or 2024-08-07T19:36Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field components, with B total reaching 11 nT. Solar wind speed increases from 380 km/s to 420 km/s and eventually to over 450 km/s. There is a temporary drop in density to below 1 p/cc (suspect bad density data), followed by an increase of density to just under 10 p/cc. The end of the arrival signature for this CME is possibly ~2024-08-11T12:00Z, where there is possibly an interaction region or sheath between both this ICME and the ICME following it (per LASSOS team's Carlos Peres Alanis).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-07T19:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-09T19:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.18", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32603/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=925.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-08-07T17:48Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-09T19:19Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =22.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.5\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-09T01:48Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-09T11:30Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-11T08:00Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-11T02:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-07T20:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-09T17:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.40", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-08-07T20:31:04Z\n## Message ID: 20240807-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240807-AL-001), now simulated with CME with ID 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-08-11T00:45Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-08-09T00:50Z, and STEREO A at 2024-08-09T11:13Z. The flank of CME with ID 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001 may reach Mars at 2024-08-11T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-08-09T17:19Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n\nCME parameters are (C-type):\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2024-08-07T03:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~518 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -27/-15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2024-08-07T14:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~925 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 19/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001, 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nCME event with ID 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001 is associated with M4.5 flare with ID 2024-08-07T13:30:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13774 (S10W22) which peaked at 2024-08-07T13:50Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-07T23:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-09T18:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.68", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-08-08T12:30:25Z\n## Message ID: 20240808-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n \n \n## Summary:\n \nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n \nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001 and 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240807-AL-004). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach:\n \n- STEREO A between about 2024-08-09T09:43Z and 2024-08-09T16:51Z (average arrival 2024-08-09T12:38Z) for 100% of simulations.\n \nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-08-09T15:21Z and 2024-08-10T00:14Z (average arrival 2024-08-09T18:46Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 59% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n \nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-07_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062/20240807_142400_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-07_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062/20240807_142400_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-07_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062/20240807_142400_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-07_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062/20240807_142400_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-07_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062/20240807_142400_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062_STA_stack.gif\n \n## Notes:\nThis 2-CME event (2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001 and 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Lucy at 2024-08-11T00:45Z (plus minus 7 hours), Parker Solar Probe at 2024-08-09T00:50Z, and Mars at 2024-08-11T02:00Z based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240807-AL-004).\n \nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n \nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n \nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-07_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062/Detailed_results_20240807_142400_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062.txt\n \n \nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n \nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n \nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n \nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-08T00:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.90", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-08-07T19:01Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 660\nLongitude (deg): 7 E\nLatitude (deg): 11 S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45 \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-08T01:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T11:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.24, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.47", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/08/07 14:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 23:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 00:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:40\nPOS Midpoint: 23:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:50\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.04\nTravel Time: ~7.04 * 9:50 = 69:13\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-10T11:13Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/08/08 01:23Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-08T01:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-09T23:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.42", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-08-07 17:48\n - Time at C2: 2024-08-07 14:24\n - Radial speed: 925.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: S13W19\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 683.50 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-08-09 23:22 (i.e. predicted transit time: 56.97 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-08T08:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T06:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 22.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 22.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.42", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 900 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 400 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 22 deg" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-08T08:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-09T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.97", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-08-09T22:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nMax Kp Range: 5-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T05:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.22", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: T2024-08-07 18:54\nRadial velocity (km/s): 733\nLongitude (deg): 17\nLatitude (deg): -12 \nHalf-angular width (deg): 49\n\nNotes: No StereoA used. CME appeared relatively faint." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-09T08:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.23", "predictionNote" : "Issued: 2024 Aug 08 1239 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40808\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Aug 2024, 1238UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2024 10CM FLUX: 325 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Aug 2024 10CM FLUX: 335 / AP: 025 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Aug 2024 10CM FLUX: 340 / AP: 025\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at moderate to high levels over the last 24 hours, with 5 M-class flares being recorded.\nThe strongest was an M5 flare peaking at 18:54 UTC on August 07. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3777 and also had an associated Type II radio emission recorded at 18:48 UTC. This region also produced 3 other M-class flares. NOAA AR 3774 produced an M4.5 flare peaking at 13:40 UTC. These two regions, NOAA AR 3774 (Beta-Gamma-Delta) and NOAA AR 3777 (Beta-Gamma- Delta), increased in size and complexity. NOAA AR 3779 decayed into a plage region. NOAA AR3780 (Beta-Gamma-Delta) is the largest and one of the most complex regions on the disk (beta gamma delta) but produced only C-class flares in the period. A new region emerged near 3781 and was numbered NOAA AR3783. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A faint halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data, first seen around 14:36 UTC August 07. It is possible that this is a combination of a back side event as well as a CME associated with the M4.5 flare peaking at 13:40 UTC from NOAA 3774. A second slow CME directed to the south-east was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 19:00. This may be related to the M5 flare associated with NOAA AR3777. Analysis of these events are ongoing but initial analysis suggest that both could have an Earth directed component which may impact Earth from August 10.\n...." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T00:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 74.1667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.77778, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3609.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T00:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 77.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3609.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-08-07T03:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T11:55Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME first seen in the SE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-08-07T03:24Z as well as in later frames of C3 and STEREO A COR2. This CME appears very faint in white light imagery. The best fit between SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A indicate that this event may originate from the vicinity of S15E30, however there is no definitive source seen on the disk for this event. There are a number of speculative sources including field line loop movement and brightening from AR 3781 (S13E42) as seen in SDO AIA 94. Arrival signature (possibly the arrival of this CME, 2024-08-07T14:24Z CME and/or 2024-08-07T19:36Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field components, with B total reaching 11 nT. Solar wind speed increases from 380 km/s to 420 km/s and eventually to over 450 km/s. There is a temporary drop in density to below 1 p/cc (suspect bad density data), followed by an increase of density to just under 10 p/cc. The end of the arrival signature for this CME is possibly ~2024-08-11T12:00Z, where there is possibly an interaction region or sheath between both this ICME and the ICME following it (per LASSOS team's Carlos Peres Alanis).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-07T19:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T04:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.88", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-08-07T19:02:06Z\n## Message ID: 20240807-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-08-07T03:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~518 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -27/-15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-08-11T07:46Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-08-09T06:59Z. The flank of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2024-08-09T17:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-08-10T04:31Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-07T20:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-09T17:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.40", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-08-07T20:31:04Z\n## Message ID: 20240807-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240807-AL-001), now simulated with CME with ID 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-08-11T00:45Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-08-09T00:50Z, and STEREO A at 2024-08-09T11:13Z. The flank of CME with ID 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001 may reach Mars at 2024-08-11T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-08-09T17:19Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n\nCME parameters are (C-type):\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2024-08-07T03:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~518 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -27/-15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2024-08-07T14:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~925 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 19/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001, 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_095500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nCME event with ID 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001 is associated with M4.5 flare with ID 2024-08-07T13:30:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13774 (S10W22) which peaked at 2024-08-07T13:50Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-07T22:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-10T01:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.92", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-08-07 09:56\n - Time at C2: 2024-08-07 03:24\n - Radial speed: 518.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 40 deg\n - Eruption location: S15E27\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 561.40 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-08-10 01:51 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.45 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-07T23:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-09T18:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.68", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-08-08T12:30:25Z\n## Message ID: 20240808-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n \n \n## Summary:\n \nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n \nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001 and 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240807-AL-004). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach:\n \n- STEREO A between about 2024-08-09T09:43Z and 2024-08-09T16:51Z (average arrival 2024-08-09T12:38Z) for 100% of simulations.\n \nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-08-09T15:21Z and 2024-08-10T00:14Z (average arrival 2024-08-09T18:46Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 59% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n \nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-07_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062/20240807_142400_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-07_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062/20240807_142400_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-07_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062/20240807_142400_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-07_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062/20240807_142400_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-07_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062/20240807_142400_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062_STA_stack.gif\n \n## Notes:\nThis 2-CME event (2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001 and 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Lucy at 2024-08-11T00:45Z (plus minus 7 hours), Parker Solar Probe at 2024-08-09T00:50Z, and Mars at 2024-08-11T02:00Z based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240807-AL-004).\n \nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n \nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n \nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-08-07_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062/Detailed_results_20240807_142400_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA062.txt\n \n \nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n \nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n \nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n \nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-09T22:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3609.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-09T22:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3609.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-08-01T07:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-08-01T07:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-08-04T13:21Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible as a partial halo to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is an M8.2 flare and eruption from Active Region 13768 (S15W80) starting around 2024-08-01T07:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible in GOES SUVI 171, 195, and 284 imagery at this time as well. Arrival: there is a clear ICME arrival signatures with a shock (according to analysis by the LASSOS team (Carlos Perez Alanis). During the shock B total reaches 19.5 nT and density gets increased to 20p/cc, followed by a period of significant negative Bz reaching -17nT. This signature of ICME shock is preceded by a less clear disturbance in the magnetic field at L1 with Btotal increasing from 8nT at 2024-08-04T04:48Z to 15nT at 06:11Z followed by a protracted period of negative Bz.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-01T12:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-03T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.33", "predictionNote" : "Glancing blow.\n\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters TBD\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Aug 02 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n...Region 3768 (S16W85, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced most\nof the flare activity and was the source of the largest flare of the\nday, a long-duration M8.2 (R2) at 01/0709 UTC with associated Type II\nand IV radio bursts and a 500 sfu Tenflare. ...\nAnalysis and modelling of the CME associated with the M8.2 flare from\nRegion 3768 results indicated a possible glancing blow midday to late on\n03 Aug." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-01T17:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-03T09:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-27.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.53", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32446/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-31T18:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=50.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=1109.0, HalfAngle=50.0, Time21.5=2024-07-31T21:43Z\n2024-08-01T07:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=50.0, Lat.=7.0, Speed=1100.0, HalfAngle=50.0, Time21.5=2024-08-01T10:49Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-03T09:36Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =46.9 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-03T18:56Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T08:04Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T19:32Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T14:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-01T19:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-04T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.49, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.18, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.90", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/08/01 07:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:40Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 19:20Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:40\nPOS Midpoint: 16:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:40\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.61\nTravel Time: ~8.61 * 8:40 = 74:40\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-04T10:00Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/08/01 18:45Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-01T23:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-03T12:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.52", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-08-01 10:49\n - Time at C2: 2024-08-01 07:24\n - Radial speed: 1100.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 50 deg\n - Eruption location: N07W50\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 736.00 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-08-03 12:02 (i.e. predicted transit time: 52.65 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-02T00:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-03T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.58", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-08-03T13:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 50%\nMax Kp Range: 4-6" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-02T13:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-03T05:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.95", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1100.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1171.22\nAcceleration: -3.24000\nDuration in seconds: 166779.50\nDuration in days: 1.9303183\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -3.24 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 630.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 03/08/2024 Time: 05:43 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-02T13:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-03T21:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.93", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1100.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 642.900\nAcceleration: 0.228331\nDuration in seconds: 224771.97\nDuration in days: 2.6015275\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.23 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 694.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 03/08/2024 Time: 21:50 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-03T21:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-04T20:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.42, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.74, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.38", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/08/01 07:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:40Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 19:20Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:40\nPOS Midpoint: 16:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:40\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.87\nTravel Time: ~9.87 * 8:40 = 85:31\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-04T20:51Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/08/03 21:51Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-03T19:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3751.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-03T12:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3751.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-29T13:25:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-29T13:25Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T16:47Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is the M8.7 flare peaking at 2024-07-29T12:55Z from AR 3762 with associated dimming, EUV wave, and opening field lines best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-08-01T16:47Z to 12nT at 17:33Z. There is a subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to ~460 km/s at 17:00Z with an increase observed in density starting around 16:00Z. This weak interplanetary shock may be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2024-07-29T02:00Z, 2024-07-29T02:12Z, and/or 2024-07-29T13:25Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T19:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.42", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32322/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-29T02:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=564.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T07:27Z\n2024-07-29T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=45.0, Lat.=16.0, Speed=534.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T08:06Z\n2024-07-29T13:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=50.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=750.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T18:05Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-01T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-01T07:25Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-31T06:00Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T15:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T20:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T23:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.03", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32326/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-29T13:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=26.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=1077.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T16:03Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-31T23:15Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =26.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T23:18Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-31T14:14Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T20:00Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_160300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T22:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.28", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: B\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/17:33\nRadial velocity (km/s): 871\nLongitude (deg): 65W\nLatitude (deg): 02S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: The background solar wind in my version distorts the CME quite a bit" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T23:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-02T09:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.53, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.64, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.42", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/07/29 13:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 19:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 03:30Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPOS Difference: 8:10\nPOS Midpoint: 23:25Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.04\nTravel Time: ~9.04 * 10:15 = 92:37\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-02T09:47Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/07/29 23:20Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T23:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T18:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-22.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.03", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-29 16:03\n - Time at C2: 2024-07-29 13:25\n - Radial speed: 1077.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 37 deg\n - Eruption location: N01W26\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 729.10 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-31 18:35 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.18 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-30T01:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.30", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-08-01T08:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 50%\nKp Range: 4-6" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-30T11:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 18.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 18.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.20", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2024 Jul 30 1232 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40730\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Jul 2024, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\n...\nCoronal mass ejections: A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in\nLASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 13:36 UTC on July 29. It is probably associated with an M8.7 flare from NOAA AR 3762. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of around 750 km/s. An Earth-directed component may be expected to arrive starting from late August 01." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-30T13:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T12:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.43", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1077.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1147.59\nAcceleration: -3.11505\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 170404.25\nDuration in days: 1.9722714\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -3.12 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 616.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/07/2024 Time: 12:45 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-30T13:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T04:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.42", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1077.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 630.411\nAcceleration: 0.300082\nDuration in seconds: 226274.78\nDuration in days: 2.6189210\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.30 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 698.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/08/2024 Time: 04:16 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-30T16:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.62", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-07-29T18:32Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 701\nLongitude (deg): 37W\nLatitude (deg): 28N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 48\n\nNotes: Wide, multi-front CME from M8.7 flare of AR3672. Difficult analysis with StA imagery very poor. Glancing impact most likley. \nSpace weather advisor:Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2024-08-01T02:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T23:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : -142, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2024-08-02T02:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "7.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.02", "predictionNote" : "Notice = WARNING, Issued = 2024-08-01_02:00, Mins_Elaps = 42, PredictStart = 2024-08-01_23:59, PredictPeak = 2024-08-02_02:00, EL = 60, GX = G4, DST = -142, Pr = 30, Sr = SO, Velocity = 750, streamB_status = SV, issue_time_tag = 2024-08-01_02:42, CID = C042" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T11:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 53.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.625, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3820.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3820.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-29T02:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-29T02:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T16:47Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the S/SE in STEREO A COR2. The source may be a C8.9 flare from AR 3762, with dimming visible starting 2024-07-29T01:17Z in SDO AIA 193. Post-eruptive arcades are also observed. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. The CME is faint, especially in STEREO A COR2, with an unclear leading edge, leading to some uncertainty in the source of this CME. The X1.5 flare from AR 3764 starting at 2024-07-29T02:33Z, after the start of this CME, and is not a source candidate for this event. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-08-01T16:47Z to 12nT at 17:33Z. There is a subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to ~460 km/s at 17:00Z with an increase observed in density starting around 16:00Z. This weak interplanetary shock may be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2024-07-29T02:00Z, 2024-07-29T02:12Z, and/or 2024-07-29T13:25Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T18:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.53", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32319/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-29T02:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=564.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T07:27Z\n2024-07-29T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=45.0, Lat.=16.0, Speed=534.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T08:06Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-01T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-01T07:36Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T16:00Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-31T07:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T19:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.42", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32322/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-29T02:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=564.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T07:27Z\n2024-07-29T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=45.0, Lat.=16.0, Speed=534.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T08:06Z\n2024-07-29T13:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=50.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=750.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T18:05Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-01T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-01T07:25Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-31T06:00Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T15:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3820.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3820.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-29T02:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-29T02:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T16:47Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide, faint CME first seen by SOHO LASCO C2 in the NW beginning at 2024-07-29T02:00Z, as well as in later frames by SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2. A possible source of this eruption is a small region of dimming and opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211 beginning at approximately 2024-07-28T23:00Z located in the vicinity of AR 3762 (S11W46) exhibiting more Northern deflection. This eruption may occur near the eruption associated with CME: 2024-07-29T02:12Z. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-08-01T16:47Z to 12nT at 17:33Z. There is a subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to ~460 km/s at 17:00Z with an increase observed in density starting around 16:00Z. This weak interplanetary shock may be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2024-07-29T02:00Z, 2024-07-29T02:12Z, and/or 2024-07-29T13:25Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T18:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.53", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32319/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-29T02:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=564.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T07:27Z\n2024-07-29T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=45.0, Lat.=16.0, Speed=534.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T08:06Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-01T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-01T07:36Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T16:00Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-31T07:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T19:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.42", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32322/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-29T02:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=564.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T07:27Z\n2024-07-29T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=45.0, Lat.=16.0, Speed=534.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T08:06Z\n2024-07-29T13:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=50.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=750.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T18:05Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-01T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-01T07:25Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-31T06:00Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T15:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3820.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-08-01T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3820.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-28T14:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T13:46Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and directly south in STEREO A COR2. The likely source is an M1.6 flare peaking at 2024-07-28T14:22Z from AR 3768 with associated eruption seen as dimming and post-eruptive arcades in SDO 171/193/335 and GOES SUVI 284, centered around S15W30. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and multiple other Earth-directed CMEs.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T22:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T05:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.50", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-28T22:16:25Z\n## Message ID: 20240728-AL-006\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-28T02:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~559 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 3/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-28T12:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~544 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001\n\n3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-28T14:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~777 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CMEs may reach Lucy at 2024-08-01T13:16Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-30T02:58Z, STEREO A at 2024-07-30T20:57Z, and Mars at 2024-08-02T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-31T05:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001, and 2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nCME event (2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.8 flare from Active Region 13766 (S07E10) with ID 2024-07-28T01:39:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T01:51Z (see notifications 20240728-AL-001 and 20240728-AL-002) and M9.9 flare from Active Region 13766 (S08E10) with ID 2024-07-28T01:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T01:57Z (see notification 20240728-AL-003).\n\nCME event (2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.7 flare from Active Region 13762 (S12W41) with ID 2024-07-28T10:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T10:42Z (see notifications 20240728-AL-004 and 20240728-AL-005).\n\nCME event (2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.6 flare from Active Region 13768 (S15W25) with ID 2024-07-28T13:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T14:22Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T02:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T03:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.95", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-28 19:02\n - Time at C2: 2024-07-28 14:36\n - Radial speed: 777.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 35 deg\n - Eruption location: S25W22\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 639.10 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-31 03:49 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.22 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-30T06:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 18.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 18.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.67", "predictionNote" : "Issued: 2024 Jul 29 1231 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40729\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Jul 2024, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\n...\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in\nLASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 15:10 UTC on July 28. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of around 600 km/s and a possible arrival time at Earth late on July 30, due to the expected interaction with an earlier halo CME which left the Sun around 02:36 UTC on July 28. Another faint partial halo CME was first observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around\n02:40 UTC on July 29, most likely associated with the X1.5 flare peaking at\n02:37 UTC on July 29. A related type II Radio emission was reported, starting at 02:36 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 535 km/s. This CME might arrive at the Earth starting from July 31 mixed with the previously expected CME arrivals. Further analysis for both eruptions is ongoing." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-30T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.77", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-07-28T18:38Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 748\nLongitude (deg): 18W\nLatitude (deg): 08S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 39\n\nNotes: Includes elements of M2.6 AR3762 and LP M1.7 from AR3768. Likely picks up the previous slow CME, with combined arrival anticipated.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T02:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 77.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3847.17", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T03:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 77.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3847.17", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-28T12:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T13:46Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and N/NW STEREO A COR2. The source is likely the M7.7 flare peaking at 2024-07-28T10:42Z from AR 3762. An associated eruption directed to the north of the active region, best seen as dimming centered around N05W45, is visible in SDO AIA 193/284 and GOES SUVI 335 starting at 2024-07-28T10:48Z. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and multiple other Earth-directed CMEs.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T22:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T05:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.50", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-28T22:16:25Z\n## Message ID: 20240728-AL-006\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-28T02:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~559 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 3/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-28T12:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~544 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001\n\n3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-28T14:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~777 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CMEs may reach Lucy at 2024-08-01T13:16Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-30T02:58Z, STEREO A at 2024-07-30T20:57Z, and Mars at 2024-08-02T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-31T05:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001, and 2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nCME event (2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.8 flare from Active Region 13766 (S07E10) with ID 2024-07-28T01:39:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T01:51Z (see notifications 20240728-AL-001 and 20240728-AL-002) and M9.9 flare from Active Region 13766 (S08E10) with ID 2024-07-28T01:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T01:57Z (see notification 20240728-AL-003).\n\nCME event (2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.7 flare from Active Region 13762 (S12W41) with ID 2024-07-28T10:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T10:42Z (see notifications 20240728-AL-004 and 20240728-AL-005).\n\nCME event (2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.6 flare from Active Region 13768 (S15W25) with ID 2024-07-28T13:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T14:22Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T05:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3847.17", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T05:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3847.17", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-28T02:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T13:46Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Full halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the east in STEREO A COR2. The source is likely the M9.9 flare peaking at 2024-07-28T01:57Z from AR 3766 and/or the M7.8 flare directly preceding it from the same region. Dimming and EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 and 335 and GOES SUVI 284, post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and multiple other Earth-directed CMEs.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T12:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T09:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.08", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 920.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 986.356\nAcceleration: -2.29628\nDuration in seconds: 198128.38\nDuration in days: 2.2931526\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.30 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 531.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 30/07/2024 Time: 09:26 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T12:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T20:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.07", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 920.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 545.160\nAcceleration: 0.767779\nDuration in seconds: 236435.34\nDuration in days: 2.7365201\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.77 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 726.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 30/07/2024 Time: 20:04 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T14:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T12:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.70", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32274/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=1.0, Lat.=-2.0, Speed=920.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-07-28T05:39Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-30T12:03Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =28.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.4\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-31T16:39Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-29T13:29Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T04:28Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T00:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T14:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T07:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.45", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32306/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=1.0, Lat.=4.0, Speed=557.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2024-07-28T08:02Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-31T07:14Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =24.9 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-01T14:13Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T03:21Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T21:49Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T15:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T17:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.97, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.31, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.63", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/07/28 02:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 10:30Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 10:30Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPOS Difference: 0:00\nPOS Midpoint: 10:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 4\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.66\nTravel Time: ~7.66 * 8:15 = 63:10\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-07-30T17:25Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/07/28 15:05Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T15:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T11:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.10", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-28 05:39\n- Time at C2: 2024-07-28 02:24\n- Radial speed: 920.0 km/s\n- Half angle: 45 deg\n- Eruption location: S02W01\nInferences:\n - No flare association was found\nPredictions for Earth:\n - In-situ shock speed: 682.00 km/s\n - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-30 11:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 57.10 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T22:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T05:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.50", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-28T22:16:25Z\n## Message ID: 20240728-AL-006\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-28T02:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~559 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 3/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-28T12:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~544 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001\n\n3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-28T14:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~777 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CMEs may reach Lucy at 2024-08-01T13:16Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-30T02:58Z, STEREO A at 2024-07-30T20:57Z, and Mars at 2024-08-02T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-31T05:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001, and 2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nCME event (2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.8 flare from Active Region 13766 (S07E10) with ID 2024-07-28T01:39:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T01:51Z (see notifications 20240728-AL-001 and 20240728-AL-002) and M9.9 flare from Active Region 13766 (S08E10) with ID 2024-07-28T01:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T01:57Z (see notification 20240728-AL-003).\n\nCME event (2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.7 flare from Active Region 13762 (S12W41) with ID 2024-07-28T10:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T10:42Z (see notifications 20240728-AL-004 and 20240728-AL-005).\n\nCME event (2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.6 flare from Active Region 13768 (S15W25) with ID 2024-07-28T13:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T14:22Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T22:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T05:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.50", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-28T22:16:25Z\n## Message ID: 20240728-AL-006\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-28T02:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~559 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 3/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-28T12:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~544 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001\n\n3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-28T14:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~777 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CMEs may reach Lucy at 2024-08-01T13:16Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-30T02:58Z, STEREO A at 2024-07-30T20:57Z, and Mars at 2024-08-02T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-31T05:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001, and 2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nCME event (2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.8 flare from Active Region 13766 (S07E10) with ID 2024-07-28T01:39:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T01:51Z (see notifications 20240728-AL-001 and 20240728-AL-002) and M9.9 flare from Active Region 13766 (S08E10) with ID 2024-07-28T01:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T01:57Z (see notification 20240728-AL-003).\n\nCME event (2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.7 flare from Active Region 13762 (S12W41) with ID 2024-07-28T10:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T10:42Z (see notifications 20240728-AL-004 and 20240728-AL-005).\n\nCME event (2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.6 flare from Active Region 13768 (S15W25) with ID 2024-07-28T13:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T14:22Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T07:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T17:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.75, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.75, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.05", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): 2.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 45.0\n\ninitial CME speed: 739.5 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-07-28T07:02Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T07:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.90", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2024-07-28 09:03\nRadial velocity (km/s):509km/sec\nLongitude (deg):0\nLatitude (deg):8\nHalf-angular width (deg):45\n\nNotes:The structure of the CME appeared complex mix of shockwave and plasma ejecta. Induced activity from this CME may be reduced duration." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T10:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.20", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40728\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Jul 2024, 1245UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 008 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 206 / AP: 008 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 009\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at high level during the last 24 hours, with few C-class flares and seven M-class flares. The strongest flare was GOES M9.9 flare from NOAA active region\n(AR) 3766 which peaked at 01:57 UTC on Jul 28. During the flare, the source region (AR 3766) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. NOAA AR 3766 produced three M-class flares and NOAA AR 3762, which is the most complex region on the disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration), produced four M-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next\n24 hours, possibly with few M-class flares and a chance for isolated X-class flares from NOAA AR 3766 or NOAA AR 3762.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: ...Another halo CME was first observed in the C2 images around 02:24 UTC on Jul 28. It was associated to the two subsequent M-class flares from the NOAA AR 3766 (S07 E10) and the EUV wave. The first\nM7.8 flare peaked at 01:51 UTC and the second M9.9 flare peaked at 01:57 UTC on Jul 28. Associated type II radio emissions were detected at 01:51 UTC on Jul 28, during the flaring activities. With a projected speed of about 470 km/s and its source region located closer to the central meridian, it is expected to impact the Earth later on the evening of July 31.\n\n-------\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 02:24 UTC on Jul 28. This CME was associated to two subsequent M-class flares from the NOAA AR 3766 (S07 E10) and the EUV wave. The first M7.8 flare peaked at 01:51 UTC and the second M9.9 flare peaked at 01:57 UTC on Jul 28. Associated type II radio emissions were detected at 01:51 UTC on Jul 28, during the flaring activities. With a projected speed of about 470 km/s and its source region located closer to the central meridian, it is expected to impact the Earth later on the evening of July 31.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-30T01:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.33", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-07-30T12:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 60%\nKp Range: 4-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-30T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.77", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-07-28T08:08\nRadial velocity (km/s): 598\nLongitude (deg): 03W\nLatitude (deg): 04S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 54\n\nNotes: Updated analysis. M9.9, wide shock and complex structure, perhaps containing multiple CMEs, and updated analysis with further images available. Arrival time brought forward as this CME is likely picked up by a later CME (from 1250/1422 on 28th)\nSpace weather advisor: Alister McHardy/Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T22:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.44444, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.77778, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3847.17", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T20:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3847.17", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-27T11:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-27T11:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T13:46Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the N/NE in STEREO A COR2. The CME is partially obscured by the instrument pylon in SOHO LASCO C3. The source may be the M2.0 flare from AR 3762, with dimming visible starting at 2024-07-27T10:34Z in GOES SUVI 284. It is also visible in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUV 195. A filament liftoff is visible on the NW limb in GOES SUVI 304 starting at 2024-07-27T09:44Z, however based on the location of this CME from the point of view of STEREO A, this is not a likely source candidate for the CME. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and up to three following CMEs.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T22:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "87.00", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32254/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-27T11:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=17.0, Lat.=31.0, Speed=488.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T18:00Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-31T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-29T20:32Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3847.17", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3847.17", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-27T06:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T23:20Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Asymmetric halo CME visible towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M3.1 flare from AR 3762 with dimming/EUV wave towards the N/NW starting at 2024-07-27T05:42Z best seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 (SDO/AIA has an eclipse shortly after the event starts). The eruption is also visible south of disk center as seen in available EUV imagery. Arrival signature: a likely combined shock of this CME and up to 3 preceding CMEs characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to above 10 p/cc.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T20:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T21:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.33", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-27T20:00:35Z\n## Message ID: 20240727-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-27T06:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~803 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 5/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-07-31T07:46Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-28T20:13Z, and STEREO A at 2024-07-29T13:05Z, and the flank may reach Mars at 2024-08-01T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-29T21:09Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_103400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_103400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_103400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_103400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.1 flare from Active Region 13762 (S11W25) with ID 2024-07-27T05:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-27T05:46Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T20:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T00:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.96, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.52, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.95", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/07/27 06:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 14:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 18:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:20\nPOS Midpoint: 16:10Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.59\nTravel Time: ~6.59 * 10:00 = 65:56\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-07-30T00:06Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/07/27 17:12Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T20:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T13:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.43", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-27T20:54:45Z\n## Message ID: 20240727-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with IDs 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001, and 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20240727-AL-001 and 20240727-AL-003). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-07-30T19:43Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-28T14:01Z, and STEREO A at 2024-07-29T08:51Z. The flank of CME with ID: 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001 may reach Mars at 2024-08-01T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-29T13:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n\nCME parameters are (C-type):\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2024-07-26T21:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~646 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -1/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2024-07-26T20:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~676 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -5/-15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001\n\n\n3: Start time of the event: 2024-07-27T06:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~803 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 5/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001, 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.1 flare from Active Region 13762 (S11W25) with ID 2024-07-27T05:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-27T05:46Z.\n\nThe simulation results also include S-type CME with Activity ID: 2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T21:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.30", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-27 10:34\n - Time at C2: 2024-07-27 06:36\n - Radial speed: 803.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 42 deg\n - Eruption location: N13W05\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 646.90 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-29 19:00 (i.e. predicted transit time: 60.42 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T03:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.87", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time:2024-07-30T01:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive:50%\nKp Range:4-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T12:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T20:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.70", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 803.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 866.197\nAcceleration: -1.72490\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 223200.33\nDuration in days: 2.5833371\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.72 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 481.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 29/07/2024 Time: 20:36 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T12:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T02:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.68", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 803.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 481.629\nAcceleration: 1.09126\nDuration in seconds: 244491.25\nDuration in days: 2.8297598\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.09 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 748.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 30/07/2024 Time: 02:30 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T23:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.42", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-07-27T11:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 870\nLongitude (deg): 08W\nLatitude (deg): 15N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 41\n\nNotes: HALO CME likely associated with M3.1 flare from AR3762. Imagery remains heavily contaminated by far-side event but Ok confidence fit.\nSpace weather advisor: Alister McHardy" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T07:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T17:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.25, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.25, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.65", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): 5.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 42.0\n\ninitial CME speed: 803.0(+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-07-27T10:34Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T08:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.33", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2024-07-27 12:46\nRadial velocity (km/s):551\nLongitude (deg):19\nLatitude (deg):16\nHalf-angular width (deg):45\n\nNotes: Obscured in STREROA by earlier CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T10:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-31T04:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "29.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.85", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40728\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Jul 2024, 1245UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 008 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 206 / AP: 008 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 009\n\nCoronal mass ejections: ...A halo CME was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 images around 06:30 UTC on Jul 27. This CME was possibly associated with a M3.1 flare, which peaked at 05:46 UTC on Jul 27, produced by NOAA AR 3762 (S11 W25).\nPossibly associted type IV radio emissions were detected at 06:43 UTC on Jul 27. With a projected speed of about 450 km/s, it is expected to impact the Earth on 30-31 Jul." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T00:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.57143, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.71429, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3885.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T21:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3885.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-26T21:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T23:20Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint partial halo seen to the S in both coronagraphs, although STEREO COR2A resumes from a data gap at 2024-07-26T22:38Z. The source for this is likely an eruption from AR 3672 centered around S22W05, observed in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2024-07-26T19:38Z. This event is closely preceded by CME 2024-07-26T20:48Z, also from AR 3672, which tracks separately from this front. Arrival signature is characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to abpve 10 p/cc. The front of this CME likely merged with two preceding CMEs and with the front of a faster following CME, forming one combined front.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T05:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T00:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.17", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32228/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=646.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T00:52Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-30T00:06Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =21.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-28T17:49Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T06:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T15:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.20", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32229/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=646.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T00:52Z\n2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=328.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T01:21Z\n2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-15.0, Speed=676.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T01:23Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-29T15:44Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =26.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T20:34Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-28T14:07Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-29T10:16Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T20:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T13:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.43", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-27T20:54:45Z\n## Message ID: 20240727-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with IDs 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001, and 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20240727-AL-001 and 20240727-AL-003). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-07-30T19:43Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-28T14:01Z, and STEREO A at 2024-07-29T08:51Z. The flank of CME with ID: 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001 may reach Mars at 2024-08-01T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-29T13:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n\nCME parameters are (C-type):\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2024-07-26T21:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~646 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -1/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2024-07-26T20:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~676 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -5/-15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001\n\n\n3: Start time of the event: 2024-07-27T06:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~803 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 5/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001, 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.1 flare from Active Region 13762 (S11W25) with ID 2024-07-27T05:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-27T05:46Z.\n\nThe simulation results also include S-type CME with Activity ID: 2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T03:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.72", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-07-29T19:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 50%\nKp Range: 4-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T07:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T17:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.08, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.08, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.70", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): -1.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 20.0\n\ninitial CME speed: 646.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-07-27T00:52Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T17:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3885.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T17:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3885.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-26T20:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T23:20Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint partial halo seen to the SE in both coronagraphs, although STEREO COR2A resumes from a data gap at 2024-07-26T22:38Z. The source for this is likely an eruption from AR 3672 centered around S10W10, observed in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2024-07-26T17:00Z. This CME is observed faintly in SOHO and STEREO COR2A, so some uncertainty lies in the true leading edge and width in this analysis. This event is followed shortly by CME 2024-07-26T21:24Z, also from AR 3672, which tracks separately from this front. Arrival signature is characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to abpve 10 p/cc. Signature may indicates an arrival of a combined shock of this CME merged with the preceding CME and two following CMEs.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T05:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T16:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.55", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32227/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-15.0, Speed=676.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T01:23Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-29T16:38Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =25.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T21:02Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-28T14:34Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-29T10:32Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T06:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T15:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.20", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32229/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=646.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T00:52Z\n2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=328.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T01:21Z\n2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-15.0, Speed=676.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T01:23Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-29T15:44Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =26.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T20:34Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-28T14:07Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-29T10:16Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T20:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T13:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.43", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-27T20:54:45Z\n## Message ID: 20240727-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with IDs 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001, and 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20240727-AL-001 and 20240727-AL-003). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-07-30T19:43Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-28T14:01Z, and STEREO A at 2024-07-29T08:51Z. The flank of CME with ID: 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001 may reach Mars at 2024-08-01T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-29T13:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n\nCME parameters are (C-type):\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2024-07-26T21:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~646 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -1/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2024-07-26T20:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~676 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -5/-15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001\n\n\n3: Start time of the event: 2024-07-27T06:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~803 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 5/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001, 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.1 flare from Active Region 13762 (S11W25) with ID 2024-07-27T05:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-27T05:46Z.\n\nThe simulation results also include S-type CME with Activity ID: 2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T03:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.70", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-07-29T19:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 50%\nKp Range: 4-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-29T07:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T15:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.58, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.58, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.77", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): -5.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 42.0\n\ninitial CME speed: 676.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-07-27T01:23Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T16:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3885.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T15:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3885.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-26T15:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T23:20Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Very faint CME seen to the E in SOHO C2/C3, and better in STEREO COR2A until a data gap begins at 2024-07-26T17:09Z. The source for this CME is likely a very broad area of dimming spanning approximately S10E15 to S10E50 observed over the tight cluster of ARs 3767, 3766, 3765, and 3764 beginning around 2024-07-26T13:00Z in SDO AIA 193, appearing centered the most around S08E35 near AR 3765. Arrival signature: a likely combined shock of this CME and up to 3 following CMEs characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to above 10 p/cc.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T03:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-30T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.60", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32222/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=328.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T01:21Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-30T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-31T14:00Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-29T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T06:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T15:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.20", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32229/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=646.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T00:52Z\n2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=328.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T01:21Z\n2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-15.0, Speed=676.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T01:23Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-29T15:44Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =26.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T20:34Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-28T14:07Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-29T10:16Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-27T20:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T13:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.43", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-27T20:54:45Z\n## Message ID: 20240727-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with IDs 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001, and 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20240727-AL-001 and 20240727-AL-003). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-07-30T19:43Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-28T14:01Z, and STEREO A at 2024-07-29T08:51Z. The flank of CME with ID: 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001 may reach Mars at 2024-08-01T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-29T13:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n\nCME parameters are (C-type):\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2024-07-26T21:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~646 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -1/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2024-07-26T20:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~676 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -5/-15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001\n\n\n3: Start time of the event: 2024-07-27T06:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~803 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 5/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001, 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001, 2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.1 flare from Active Region 13762 (S11W25) with ID 2024-07-27T05:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-27T05:46Z.\n\nThe simulation results also include S-type CME with Activity ID: 2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-28T03:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.70", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-07-29T19:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 50%\nKp Range: 4-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T21:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3885.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-29T17:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3885.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-21T16:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-21T16:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T19:48Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. STEREO A COR2 is in a data gap during this event. The source of this CME appears to be an M1.0 flare from AR13757 (N15E20) peaking at 2024-07-21T16:31Z. Filament ejecta is visible in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 with significant northward deflection. The bulk of the CME is likely the brighter portion visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 difference imagery to the NE. The fainter halo portion is possibly associated with this event, though there is some uncertainty due to a lack of visible dimming to the south of the source location.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-21T23:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-24T16:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.47", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-21T23:20:08Z\n## Message ID: 20240721-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-21T16:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~719 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/42 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-21T16:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-07-25T16:37Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-23T12:55Z, and the flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-07-24T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-24T16:11Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-07-21T16:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240721_213900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240721_213900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240721_213900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240721_213900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240721_213900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240721_213900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240721_213900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240721_213900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-07-21T16:48:00-CME-001) is associated with the M1.0 flare from Active Region 13737 (N15E20) with ID 2024-07-21T16:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-21T16:31Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-21T23:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-24T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.30", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 21/21:19 UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 765\nLongitude (deg): E03\nLatitude (deg): N16\nHalf-angular width (deg): 52\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-21T23:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T18:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.02", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-21 19:30\n - Time at C2: 2024-07-21 16:48\n - Radial speed: 1224.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 43 deg\n - Eruption location: N08E05\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 773.20 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-23 18:47 (i.e. predicted transit time: 49.98 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-22T01:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-24T20:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.59, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.87, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.08", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/07/21 16:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 01:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 04:10Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:50\nPOS Midpoint: 02:45Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:05\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.54\nTravel Time: ~7.54 * 10:05 = 76:02\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-07-24T20:42Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/07/22 01:39Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-22T12:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T20:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.58, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.58, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.40", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): -12.5\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 44.5\n\ninitial CME speed: 971.50 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-07-21T20:34Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-22T12:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T10:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.32", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1224.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1298.56\nAcceleration: -3.93574\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 149926.53\nDuration in days: 1.7352608\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -3.94 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 708.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/07/2024 Time: 10:26 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-22T12:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-24T05:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.28", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1224.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 710.232\nAcceleration: -0.172751\nDuration in seconds: 217598.29\nDuration in days: 2.5184987\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.17 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 672.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/07/2024 Time: 05:14 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-22T19:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-24T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.80", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-07-21T20:05Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1056\nLongitude (deg): 4E\nLatitude (deg): 10N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 43\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-23T00:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.15", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-07-23T23:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 60%\nMax Kp Range: 4-6" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-23T15:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-24T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "4.18", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2024 Jul 22 1253 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40722\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Jul 2024, 1251UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 204 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 200 / AP: 008\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at high level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and six M-class flares. The strongest flare was GOES M3.9 flare from NOAA active region\n(AR) 3762 which peaked at 04:04 UTC on Jul 22. During the flare, the source region (AR 3762) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Apart from NOAA AR 3762, NOAA AR 3757 (beta configuration) and NOAA AR 3744(beta configuration) also produced M-class flares. The NOAA AR 3751 has the most complex magnetic configuration (beta-gamma-delta), but it has only produced few C-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with few M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view around 16:28 UTC on Jul 21. CME was associated with a M1.0 flare from NOAA AR 3757 (N15 E20) and an eruption of a very twisted filament with the main propagation direction towards North. The first estimation shows projected speed of the CME to be about 730 km/s which brings expected arrival time at Earth to be around\n05:00 UTC on Jul 24. A M1.4 flare occurred with a peak time 09:35 UTC on Jul 22, produced by NOAA AR 3744. Associated Type II radio emissions were detected at 09:26 UTC on Jul 22, during the flaring activity. The associated CME will possibly have Earth directed components. Further analysis will be carried out once the corresponding LASCO coronagraph images are availble. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-25T11:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-25T21:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "50.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-39.90", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/07/21 16:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 01:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 04:10Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:50\nPOS Midpoint: 02:45Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:05\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.05\nTravel Time: ~10.05 * 10:05 = 101:18\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-07-25T21:58Z\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n*** Latest possible estimated arrival time changing the Impact Type from 3 to 1\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/07/25 11:39Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-24T07:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.16667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.16667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4033.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-24T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4033.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-19T22:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-19T22:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T19:48Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[IN REVIEW] CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Overlaps with CME: 2024-07-19T20:36Z in the field of view of the coronagraphs. The potential source may be a secondary eruption near the filament eruption centered around S30W15 as seen in SDO AIA 304 imagery starting around 2024-07-19T18:30Z. Dimming can be seen slightly south of this eruption, near S35E10, starting around 2024-07-19T20:37Z in SDO AIA 193. It is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery following a data gap from 2024-07-19T13:35Z to 22:55Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-20T15:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.55", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32069/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-19T22:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-12.0, Lat.=-19.0, Speed=531.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2024-07-20T04:39Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-23T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-24T16:00Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-21T16:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-22T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-20T15:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.97", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-20T15:50:27Z\n## Message ID: 20240720-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-19T21:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~793 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -31/-21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-19T21:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-19T22:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~531 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -12/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-19T22:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The combined flank of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-07-24T10:00Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-21T12:00Z. The flank of CME with ID: 2024-07-19T22:24:00-CME-001 may impact STEREO A at 2024-07-22T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-23T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-19T21:36:00-CME-001, 2024-07-19T22:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-21T20:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-22T20:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.63", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-20 04:39\n - Time at C2: 2024-07-19 22:24\n - Radial speed: 531.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 25 deg\n - Eruption location: S19E12\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 565.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-22 20:19 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.92 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T00:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4033.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4033.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-19T21:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-19T21:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T19:48Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[IN REVIEW] CME visible in the SE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Overlaps with CME: 2024-07-19T22:24Z in the field of view of the coronagraphs. The source is likely a filament eruption stretching diagonally from S40E20 to S20W02 starting around 2024-07-19T18:30Z with dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and post-eruptive arcades beginning around 2024-07-19T20:30Z as seen in SDO/AIA 304 and 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery following a data gap from 2024-07-19T13:35Z to 22:55Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-20T14:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.82", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32068/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-07-19T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-31.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=793.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-07-20T02:19Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-23T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-24T12:00Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-21T16:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-20T15:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.97", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-20T15:50:27Z\n## Message ID: 20240720-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-19T21:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~793 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -31/-21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-19T21:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-07-19T22:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~531 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -12/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-07-19T22:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The combined flank of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-07-24T10:00Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-21T12:00Z. The flank of CME with ID: 2024-07-19T22:24:00-CME-001 may impact STEREO A at 2024-07-22T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-23T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-19T21:36:00-CME-001, 2024-07-19T22:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_022000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4033.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-23T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4033.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-07-01T11:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-07-01T11:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-05T03:11Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely an M1.2 flare peaking at 2024-07-01T11:02Z from AR 3730 (approx. S19W37). The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131, the ejection of material following the flare can be seen in SDO AIA 171/193/304, and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. || Possible arrival signature: Sudden jump in B-total from 6nT to 11nT, and is sustained between 10nT to 11nT for several hours. Corresponding rotation of the B-field components is observed. There is no significant increase in temperature until about 2024-07-05T08:20Z when the temperature suddenly increases from 50 K to about 90 K. The density decreases very suddenly at 03:23Z, which is indicative of a possible flux rope. Prior to this drop, the density had gradually reached a peak value of 19.29 p/cc, which is possibly attributable to the arrival of a higher density stream, which was indicated in ENLIL simulations to arrive early on July 5th. The source of this arrival may possibly be a cursory glancing blow from CME:2024-07-01T11:36Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-03T12:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-05T13:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.40", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIgram - 2024-07-03\n\nFurther analysis of the CME, seen at 11:24 UTC on June 01 in LASCO C2 data, shows that while the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss the Earth, a glancing blow is possible on July 05." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-05T13:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4481.75", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-05T13:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4481.75", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-06-30T03:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-06-30T03:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-04T09:23Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Very faint CME visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is approximate due to the slow, faint nature of the CME in the field of view of SOHO LASCO C2, and the CME becomes more prominent in C2 around 2024-06-30T08:12Z. The source is unclear, but may be a slow eruption starting at 2024-06-30T00:07Z centered near the central meridian, around N20, best seen in SDO AIA 193. || Possible arrival signature: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 3nT at 2024-07-04T00:47Z to 10nT at 09:59Z. A very minor increase in solar wind speed was observed from 313 km/s at 08:23Z to 360 km/s at 15:02Z. An increase in density was observed as well, most notably increasing from 3 p/cc at 13:09Z to 12 p/cc at 16:08Z. This arrival may be associated with a glancing blow from CME: 2024-06-30T03:48Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-30T17:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-04T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "87.62", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31773/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-06-30T03:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=309.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2024-06-30T19:17Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-04T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-06T08:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-04T08:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = \nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240630_191700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-04T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4499.55", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-04T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4499.55", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-06-29T16:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-02T23:41Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and S/SW in STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption spanning from S30E10 to S20W40. Liftoff seen starting at about 2024-06-29T15:09Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304 after a data gap from 2024-06-29T13:05Z to 2024-06-29T17:25Z. || Possible arrival signature: The first of a series of complex arrival signatures seen at L1. A very small increase in B-total from 3nT to 4.6nT is seen starting at 2024-07-02T23:41Z, with corresponding rotation of B-field components. B-total begins to steadily increase over the next several hours until reaching a peak value of 6.41nT at 2024-07-03T15:30Z. A corresponding steady rotation of B-field components progresses over several hours until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. Temperature steadily decreases from about 80 K at 2024-07-02T22:38Z to about 50 K at 2024-07-02T23:41Z. Density remains very low, around 2cc, until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. This arrival is currently suspected to be the combined arrival of the filament eruption CME:2024-06-29T16:12Z and the glancing blow arrival of CME:2024-06-29T04:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-29T20:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-03T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.53", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Jun 30 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n \nSolar Activity\n \n.24 hr Summary...\n... \nA large (~30 degree) filament centered near S28W18 lifted-off at around\n29/1430 UTC. The associated CME, seen in LASCO C2 imagery off the SW at\n29/1600 UTC, is likely to result in a glancing-blow on 03 Jul.\n…" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-30T07:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-02T22:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.52", "predictionNote" : "Issued: 2024 Jun 30 1231 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40630\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Jun 2024, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in\nLASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 16:00 UTC on June 29. The CME is directed primarily to the southwest from the Earth's perspective and is associated with a large filament eruption that occurred in the southwestern quadrant around 15:12 UTC on June 29. The CME is estimated to have an Earth-directed component and is expected to arrive at Earth late on July 2.\nNo other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-30T13:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-03T08:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.22, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.56, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.38", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/06/29 16:05Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 22:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 05:50Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPOS Difference: 7:10\nPOS Midpoint: 02:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:10\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.71\nTravel Time: ~8.71 * 10:10 = 88:32\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-07-03T08:37Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/06/29 23:58Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-30T13:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-02T21:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.12", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-06-30T13:34:49Z\n## Message ID: 20240630-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-06-29T16:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~809 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 44 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 26/-33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-07-02T08:08Z and the flank may reach Lucy at 2024-07-05T00:00Z and Mars at 2024-07-04T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-02T21:50Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_203500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_203500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_203500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_203500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_203500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_203500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_203500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_203500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-30T14:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-02T22:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.10", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Mars, STEREO A, Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-06-30T14:35:32Z\n## Message ID: 20240630-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-06-29T03:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~885 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 64/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-06-29T04:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~506 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 36/-27 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001\n\n3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-06-29T16:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~809 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 44 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 26/-33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Mars, STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge of CME with ID: 2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001 will reach Mars at 2024-07-03T02:53Z and the flank may give a glancing blow to OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-07-01T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of CME with ID: 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001 may give a glancing blow to Lucy at 2024-07-05T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The combined leading edge of all three CMEs may impact STEREO A at 2024-07-02T06:41Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\nThe simulation also indicates that the leading edge of CME with ID 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001 and the flank of CME with ID 2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001 may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge or flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-02T22:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001, 2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001, 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe CME event with ID 2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001 is associated with C2.3 flare with ID 2024-06-29T13:08:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13719 (S18W60) which peaked at 2024-06-29T13:13Z.\n\nThe CME event with ID 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001 was predicted to affect STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and NASA missions near Earth based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240630-AL-001).\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-30T15:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-03T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.43", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-06-29T20:10Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 780\nLongitude (deg): 22W\nLatitude (deg): 35S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 38\n\nNotes: Significant uncertainty in timing\nSpace weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-30T19:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-02T04:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.68", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-29 20:35\n - Time at C2: 2024-06-29 16:12\n - Radial speed: 809.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 44 deg\n - Eruption location: S33W26\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 648.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-02 04:26 (i.e. predicted transit time: 60.23 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-07-01T22:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-03T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.68", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/02:43\nRadial velocity (km/s): 768 \nLongitude (deg): 25W\nLatitude (deg): S32\nHalf-angular width (deg): 42\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-03T00:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.6, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.8, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4533.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-02T23:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4533.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-06-29T04:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-07-02T23:41Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Very faint loop CME seen to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a bit elusive, but may possibly be the liftoff of some filamentary material from one of the many filaments currently on the Earth-facing disk. Based on a stereoscopic measurement (with Lat:-17 and Lon:36), this may possibly be the liftoff of some material from a filament visible in SDO AIA 304 imagery which spanned from S40W10 to S25W60 at the start time of this CME. This CME overlaps with CME:2024-06-29T03:36Z. || Possible arrival signature: The first of a series of complex arrival signatures seen at L1. A very small increase in B-total from 3nT to 4.6nT is seen starting at 2024-07-02T23:41Z, with corresponding rotation of B-field components. B-total begins to steadily increase over the next several hours until reaching a peak value of 6.41nT at 2024-07-03T15:30Z. A corresponding steady rotation of B-field components progresses over several hours until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. Temperature steadily decreases from about 80 K at 2024-07-02T22:38Z to about 50 K at 2024-07-02T23:41Z. Density remains very low, around 2cc, until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. This arrival is currently suspected to be the combined arrival of the filament eruption CME:2024-06-29T16:12Z and the glancing blow arrival of CME:2024-06-29T04:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-29T17:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-03T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "78.48", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31785/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=36.0, Lat.=-27.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2024-06-29T10:42Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-03T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-02T14:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-29T18:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-03T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "77.47", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31783/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=64.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=885.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-06-29T07:26Z\n2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=36.0, Lat.=-27.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2024-06-29T10:42Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-03T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-03T03:41Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-02T10:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-29T18:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-03T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "77.47", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31783/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=64.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=885.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-06-29T07:26Z\n2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=36.0, Lat.=-27.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2024-06-29T10:42Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-03T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-03T03:41Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-02T10:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-30T14:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-02T22:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.10", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Mars, STEREO A, Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-06-30T14:35:32Z\n## Message ID: 20240630-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-06-29T03:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~885 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 64/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-06-29T04:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~506 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 36/-27 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001\n\n3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-06-29T16:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~809 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 44 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 26/-33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Mars, STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge of CME with ID: 2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001 will reach Mars at 2024-07-03T02:53Z and the flank may give a glancing blow to OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-07-01T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of CME with ID: 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001 may give a glancing blow to Lucy at 2024-07-05T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The combined leading edge of all three CMEs may impact STEREO A at 2024-07-02T06:41Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\nThe simulation also indicates that the leading edge of CME with ID 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001 and the flank of CME with ID 2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001 may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge or flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-02T22:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001, 2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001, 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe CME event with ID 2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001 is associated with C2.3 flare with ID 2024-06-29T13:08:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13719 (S18W60) which peaked at 2024-06-29T13:13Z.\n\nThe CME event with ID 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001 was predicted to affect STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and NASA missions near Earth based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240630-AL-001).\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-03T04:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4533.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-07-03T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4533.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-06-25T05:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-06-25T05:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-06-28T09:09Z", "maxKP" : 7.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption. The filament extended from approximately N15W55 to S30W15 on the disk, with liftoff seen starting around 2024-06-24T21:40Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 and 304.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-25T20:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-28T14:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.27", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-06-25T20:53:51Z\n## Message ID: 20240625-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-06-25T05:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~556 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 39/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-06-25T05:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-06-28T03:43Z, Lucy at 2024-06-30T14:00Z, and Mars at 2024-06-29T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-06-28T14:04Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-06-25T05:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_131200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_131200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_131200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_131200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_131200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_131200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_131200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-25T23:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-28T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.97", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-26T03:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-28T01:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.15", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-25 13:12\n - Time at C2: 2024-06-25 05:00\n - Radial speed: 556.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 38 deg\n - Eruption location: N03W39\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 572.80 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-06-28 01:55 (i.e. predicted transit time: 68.92 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-26T10:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-28T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.67, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.67, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.15", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Jun 27 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity decayed to low levels this period. Region 3723 (S19E30,\nFai/beta-gamma-delta) the biggest region on the disk, produced the\nlargest event, a long-duration C6.2/Sf at 26/1530 UTC. Slight decay was\nobserved in the leading and trailing spots of this region. At 26/0012\nUTC, Region 3727 (S18E46, Cso/beta) produced a C4.2 flare. A slight\nincrease in spot count was observed in this region. New Region 3729\n(S03E65, Dso/beta) rotated around the E limb and was numbered.\n\nModeling of the CME, that was associated with the 35 degree filament\neruption centered near S19W58 that was observed lifting off at 24/2310\nUTC, returned with flanking influences at Earth by late on 28 Jun.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2024 Jun 27 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 27-Jun 29 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 27-Jun 29 2024\n\n Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun 29\n00-03UT 2.00 2.00 4.67 (G1)\n03-06UT 1.67 2.00 4.00 \n06-09UT 1.33 1.33 2.67 \n09-12UT 1.67 1.33 2.67 \n12-15UT 2.67 1.33 2.00 \n15-18UT 2.33 1.67 2.00 \n18-21UT 2.00 3.33 1.67 \n21-00UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 2.67 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 28-29 Jun due to\nCME arrivals from the event that left the Sun on 24 Jun." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-26T13:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-28T23:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.35", "predictionNote" : "Issued: 2024 Jun 26 1231 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40626\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 Jun 2024, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\n....\nCoronal mass ejections: A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 05:24 UTC on June 25th.\nThe CME is directed primarily to the west from the Earth's perspective and is associated with a large filament eruption that took place in the southwestern quadrant around 02:00 UTC on June 25th. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, glancing blow arrival could be possible from late on June 28.\nTwo small filament eruptions were observed on June 25. The first eruption was detected at 11:37 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 data from the southeast quadrant.\nThe second eruption occurred at 22:18 UTC near the disc center. Associated CMEs can be seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 13:25 UTC on June 25 and 00:00 UTC on June 26. Analysis of the CMEs is ongoing, but due to their origin locations, these CMEs may have an Earth-directed component.\nNo other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-26T22:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-28T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.78", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s): 483\nLongitude (deg): W37\nLatitude (deg): N07\nHalf-angular width (deg): 42\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-27T01:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-29T02:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.07, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.78, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.40", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/06/25 08:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 18:00Z; 31.5Rsun; WSE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 02:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction\nPOS Difference: 8:00\nPOS Midpoint: 22:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 14:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.47\nTravel Time: ~6.47 * 14:00 = 90:31\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-06-29T02:31Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\nMethod Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/06/27 01:40Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-27T15:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-28T13:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.93", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 556.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 612.528\nAcceleration: -0.627436\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 288379.19\nDuration in days: 3.3377221\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.63 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 431.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 28/06/2024 Time: 13:06 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-27T15:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-28T06:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.92", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 556.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 347.508\nAcceleration: 1.70390\nDuration in seconds: 263285.96\nDuration in days: 3.0472912\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.70 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 796.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 28/06/2024 Time: 06:08 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-28T16:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 46.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.945, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.945, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4643.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-28T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-4643.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-06-08T01:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-06-10T16:36Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Large halo CME visible in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. The source appears to be two back-to-back M-class flares from AR13697 with associated dimming signature to the north as well as nice filament ejecta to the west and north. Post-eruptive arcades are beginning to show in SDO/AIA 193. There is a large EUV wave associated with this event, as best seen in SDO/AIA 211.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-08T04:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-10T14:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.88", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-06-08T04:43:24Z\n## Message ID: 20240608-AL-010\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-06-08T01:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1126 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 43/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-06-12T20:49Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-06-09T06:57Z, STEREO A at 2024-06-10T04:16Z, Mars at 2024-06-11T16:30Z, and OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-06-10T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-06-10T14:31Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001) is associated with the M3.3 flare from AR13697 (S20W68) with ID 2024-06-08T00:39:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-06-08T00:51Z and the M9.7 flare from AR13697 (S17W68) with ID 2024-06-08T01:23:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-06-08T01:49Z (see notifications 20240608-AL-001, 20240608-AL-002), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-06-08T02:25:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240608-AL-003, 20240608-AL-004, 20240608-AL-005, 20240608-AL-006), SEP at SOHO with ID 2024-06-08T03:34:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240608-AL-007), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-06-08T04:14:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240608-AL-008, 20240608-AL-009).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-08T05:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-10T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.77", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 05:04\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1098\nLongitude (deg): 51\nLatitude (deg): 16\nHalf-angular width (deg): 49\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-08T05:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-10T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.67, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.63", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n----------------\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Jun 08 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels due to numerous M-class flare\nactivity. Region 3697 (S17W65, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the\nlargest event of the period in the form of a long-duration M9.7/1f flare\nat 08/0149 UTC. Associated with this event was filament ejecta to the\nnorth and west, a 894 km/s Type II sweep, a Type IV sweep and a 460 sfu\nTenflare...\n...An asymmetric-halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0148\nUTC. A majority of the initial shock was viewed in the western quadrant\nand was related to the M9.7 flare mentioned above. Subsequent analysis\nand model output suggests an Earth impact midday on 10 June.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.Forecast...\nEnhanced conditions are expected on 08-09 Jun due to the continued\ntransient influence and the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS on\n08-10 Jun. By midday or so on 10 Jun, CME effects from the 08 Jun CME\nare likely to impact conditions on Earth.\n\nGeospace\n\n.Forecast...\nUnsettled to active levels are expected on 08 Jun with continued\ntransient influence and arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to\nunsettled levels are likely on 09 Jun with continued weak CH HSS\ninfluence. Active to major storm (G2/Moderate) levels are expected on 10\nJun due to CME effects from the 08 June M9.7 event.\n\n----------------\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2024 Jun 08 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 08-Jun 10 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 08-Jun 10 2024\n\n Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10\n00-03UT 4.33 3.00 1.67 \n03-06UT 3.33 3.33 1.33 \n06-09UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 \n09-12UT 2.67 2.00 3.33 \n12-15UT 3.67 2.33 4.67 (G1)\n15-18UT 2.67 2.00 6.00 (G2)\n18-21UT 2.67 2.00 6.00 (G2)\n21-00UT 2.67 2.00 5.00 (G1)\n\nRationale: G2 (Moderate) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on\nJun 10 due to CME effects." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-08T06:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-10T09:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.84, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.53, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.78", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/06/08 01:47Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 04:42Z; 23Rsun; WSW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 07:48Z; 23Rsun; ENE Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:06\nPOS Midpoint: 06:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:28\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~12.53\nTravel Time: ~12.53 * 4:28 = 55:57\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-06-10T09:44Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\n*** An forecast update might be needed once coronagraph imagery fills in\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/06/08 06:47Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-08T11:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-10T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.83", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-06-08T04:39Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1154\nLongitude (deg): 032W\nLatitude (deg): 3S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 48\n\nNotes: Average of three forecasters' fits, all with reasonable agreement. Possibly double lobed event, with both shocks intersecting Sun-Earth line. MOSWOC Enlil background wind an presence/treatment of CH42/+ generally felt to be good, hence suggested arrival of 10/0600UTC accepted, and error bars probably confining arrival to within UTC morning. Main uncertainty is level of impact from what appear to be shocks, although event itself was sizeable. G2 felt to be best estimate.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence, also KW, TG." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-08T13:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-10T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.95", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40608\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Jun 2024, 1237UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) \nPREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jun 2024 10CM FLUX: 190 / AP: 013 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jun 2024 10CM FLUX: 188 / AP: 007 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jun 2024 10CM FLUX: 188 / AP: 045\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 field of view at June 08 01:48 UTC. The plane-of-the- sky speed of the CME was around 1000 km/s.\nThe CME was associated with the M9.7 flare peaking 01:49 UTC on June 08, from NOAA AR 3697 (S18W53) near the west limb.\nAnalysis of this CME is ongoing but a glancing blow is possible in the beginning of June 10." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-08T13:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-10T14:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.72", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31363/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=44.0, Lat.=-10.0, Speed=1106.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-06-08T04:59Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-06-10T14:35Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =34.6 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-06-12T20:15Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-06-09T07:38Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-06-10T04:45Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-06-11T17:00Z\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-06-10T21:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-08T14:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-09T23:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.92", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1126.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1197.92\nAcceleration: -3.38280\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 163019.71\nDuration in days: 1.8868022\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -3.38 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 646.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/06/2024 Time: 23:09 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-08T14:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-10T15:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.88", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1126.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 657.018\nAcceleration: 0.146224\nDuration in seconds: 223266.42\nDuration in days: 2.5841020\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.15 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 689.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/06/2024 Time: 15:54 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-09T05:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-09T22:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.35", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-08 03:59\n - Time at C2: 2024-06-08 01:53\n - Radial speed: 1528.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: S03W24\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 864.40 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-06-09 22:21 (i.e. predicted transit time: 44.47 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-10T09:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.38143, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.28571, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5068.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-10T10:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5068.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-06-01T20:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-06-01T20:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-06-03T21:40Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "A CME to the SE with a complex uneven (pointy) front that comes on the heels of and overlaps with the preceding (2024-06-01T19:12Z) halo CME. There might also be an fainter wider front associated with it as well but the identification of it is hard because of the outflows following the 2024-06-01T19:12Z CME. The source of this CME could be the M7.3 flare from Active Region 3697 (S20E21) peaking at 2024-06-01T19:40Z and an associated eruption signified by post-eruptive arcades and a somewhat more eastern dimming centered very approximately around (S20E25). From Carlos Perez Alanis (LASSOS team): Possible arrival signature of this CME is likely blended with/directly follows the arrival of an expected coronal hole high speed stream around 2024-06-03T20:43Z. The ICME shock is possibly seen around 2024-06-03T21:00Z, while the arrival of the flux rope is likely seen around 2024-06-03T21:30Z, where the Betta parameter (e.g. in Wind daily solar wind survey) drops. The possible end of the flux-rope is possibly around 2024-06-05T6Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-02T17:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-04T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.78", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-06-02T17:53:42Z\n## Message ID: 20240602-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-06-01T20:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~898 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -24/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-06-01T20:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2024-06-04T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-06-04T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-06-01T20:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240601_233400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240601_233400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240601_233400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240601_233400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240601_233400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240601_233400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nThis CME event (2024-06-01T20:00:00-CME-001) is possibly associated with M7.3 flare from Active Region 13697 (S20E21) with ID 2024-06-01T19:01:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-06-01T19:40Z (see notifications 20240601-AL-005, 20240601-AL-006).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-02T18:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-03T20:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.94, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.23, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.32", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/06/01 19:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 00:10Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 06:10Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:00\nPOS Midpoint: 03:10Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:10\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.09\nTravel Time: ~6.09 * 8:10 = 49:43\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-06-03T20:43Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/06/02 01:21Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-03T07:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-04T17:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 23.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 23.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.40", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 800 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 350 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 20 deg" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-03T08:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-04T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.27", "predictionNote" : "From SIDC URSIGRAM 40602\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jun 2024, 1236UT\n...\n\nCoronal mass ejections: Two halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been\nobserved in LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery. The first was a full halo CME\nfirst detected from 19:00 UTC June 01 in LASCO/C2 data. Initially reported\nto be associated with the X1 flare, this CME may in fact likely be related\nto a back-sided event and will therefore not impact Earth. \n\nA second narrower partial halo CME directed to the south-east can be seen from 20:00 UTC June 01 in LASCO/C2 data. This is likely associated with the M7.3 flare\nwith peak time 19:39 UTC June 01 and associated with Type II and Type Iv\nradio emissions. Preliminary analysis suggests that these CME will have an\nEarth directed component and may impact Earth from early on June 04, but\nfurther analysis is ongoing.\n\n\nCME arrival message id=\"467\", Event id=\"416\" \nexpected arrival time: 2024-06-04T13:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 40\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n sidctech@oma.be\n \n \n 2024-06-03T08:24:32\n \n \n 416\n \n 0\n \n CME_arrival\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2024-06-04T13:00:00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-03T15:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-04T04:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.30", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 898.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 963.762\nAcceleration: -2.18631\nDuration in seconds: 202249.26\nDuration in days: 2.3408480\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.19 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 521.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 04/06/2024 Time: 04:10 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-06-03T15:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-04T14:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.27", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 898.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 533.214\nAcceleration: 0.830238\nDuration in seconds: 237707.17\nDuration in days: 2.7512404\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.83 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 730.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 04/06/2024 Time: 14:01 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-04T10:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5231.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-06-04T13:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5231.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-23T07:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-23T07:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-26T14:35Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a small filament eruption centered near S12E03 which begins to lift-off around 2024-05-23T06:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. This eruption appears to deflect towards the southeast as it leaves the solar disk/initial source location. Post eruptive arcades begin to from in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery around 07:20Z. This event partially overlaps with CME: 2024-05-23T06:48Z. Possible arrival signature: Characterized by a minor amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 3nT at 2024-05-26T14:35Z to 8nT at 20:13Z. There are a few minor increases in solar wind speed prior to the amplification magnetic field components, most notably an increase from ~350 km/s at 11:08Z to ~450 km/s at 13:05Z. There are no significant increases in temperature or density observed, beyond an increase in density to 8 N/cm^3 at 2024-05-27T03:31Z. An alternative arrival signature could be the one starting at 2024-05-27T02:42Z when it looks like the ICME crossed the spacecraft, with a slight descending profile in the plasma and magnetic field indicating a glancing blow and the possible start of the magnetic cloud around 06:12Z (according to Carlos Perez Alanis, LASSOS team).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-23T17:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-27T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.63", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-05-23T17:57:29Z\n## Message ID: 20240523-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-05-23T01:25Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~469 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -39/-35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-05-23T01:25:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-05-23T06:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~649 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 13 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -8/-37 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-05-23T06:48:00-CME-001\n\n3: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-05-23T07:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~274 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -18/-24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-05-23T07:12:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-05-27T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-05-23T01:25:00-CME-001, 2024-05-23T06:48:00-CME-001, and 2024-05-23T07:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240523_093100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240523_093100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240523_093100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-24T12:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-27T00:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.17", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-23T15:53Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 320\nLongitude (deg): 025E\nLatitude (deg): 12S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 25 \n\nNotes: Averaged fit for SE centre-disc disappearing filament, visible on e.g. Learmonth H-Alpha around 23/0630UTC, perhaps narrowly preceeded by a second event to its southeast 23/0600UTC. Modelled as an off-ecliptic southward lobe in the latter case, but in this (former) case as an on-ecliptic slightly eastward emission. Low confidence due to poorly-defined ejecta to fit to, but also questionable MOSWOC Enlil background wind field evolution (CH39/- onset or presence). Result is a slight glance, hence long error bars when all else considered.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-27T01:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5430.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-27T01:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5430.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-20T20:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-20T20:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-23T12:53Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME to the east. Its source could be a slow eruption in AR 3688 starting at 2024-05-20T18:36Z, with the dimming that somewhat enlarges the SE CH located to the south of this Active Region. The dimming is centered approximately at (S20-25E35). Possible arrival signature looks like a flank of a flux-rope, with slight rotations in the B-components. Note that the compression zone between the preceding ICME and this one may start as early as 2024-05-22T21:17Z (when the temperature and density begin to increase slightly).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-21T18:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-23T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.52", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31062/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-20T20:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-38.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=836.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2024-05-20T23:41Z\n2024-05-20T21:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-33.0, Lat.=-18.0, Speed=654.0, HalfAngle=14.0, Time21.5=2024-05-21T01:48Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-23T23:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-23T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5504.05", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-23T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5504.05", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-19T19:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-19T19:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-22T05:40Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Narrow CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source is the M2.5 flare starting at 2024-05-19T17:47Z from AR 3685 (S10E33). An eruption can be best seen in SDO AIA 304 following the flare. It is also visible in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUV 195. Possible arrival signature is characterized by a drop in temperature and rotation of two magnetic field components; at 05:55Z there is the beginning of a drop in temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-20T18:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-22T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.38", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-05-20T18:17:12Z\n## Message ID: 20240520-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-05-19T14:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~524 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 14 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -35/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-05-19T19:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~584 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -32/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-05-19T19:09:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-05-22T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001 and 2024-05-19T19:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240519_204000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240519_204000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240519_204000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240519_204000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe CME event with ID 2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001 is associated with M1.9 flare with ID 2024-05-19T13:37:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13685 (S10E35) which peaked at 2024-05-19T13:44Z.\n\nThe CME event with ID 2024-05-19T19:09:00-CME-001 is associated with M2.5 flare with ID 2024-05-19T17:47:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13685 (S10E33) which peaked at 2024-05-19T17:56Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-22T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5535.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-22T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5535.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-19T14:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-22T05:40Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Thin, faint CME seen to the east in all coronagraphs. The source is not too clear, but may be associated with an M1.9 flare from AR 3685 that peaked at 2024-05-19T13:44Z, best observed in SDO AIA 131. Some weak field line movement is observed at this time of the flare in SDO AIA 171/193, and dark filamentary material is seen rising along field lines after the flare occurs and correlates to the start time of the CME in coronagraph imagery. Possible arrival signature is characterized by a drop in temperature and rotation of two magnetic field components; at 05:55Z there is the beginning of a drop in temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-20T18:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-22T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.38", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-05-20T18:17:12Z\n## Message ID: 20240520-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-05-19T14:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~524 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 14 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -35/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-05-19T19:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~584 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -32/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-05-19T19:09:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-05-22T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001 and 2024-05-19T19:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240519_204000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240519_204000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240519_204000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240519_204000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe CME event with ID 2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001 is associated with M1.9 flare with ID 2024-05-19T13:37:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13685 (S10E35) which peaked at 2024-05-19T13:44Z.\n\nThe CME event with ID 2024-05-19T19:09:00-CME-001 is associated with M2.5 flare with ID 2024-05-19T17:47:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13685 (S10E33) which peaked at 2024-05-19T17:56Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-22T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5535.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-22T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5535.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-17T21:05:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-17T21:05Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-20T06:16Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME associated with M7.2 flare of AR3685. There is a very brief possible flux rope signature starting around 2024-05-20T06Z with separation of magnetic field components, drop in density and temperature and mild increase of magnetic field to 8nT.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-18T10:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-20T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.77", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-18T00:39Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 950\nLongitude (deg): 50E\nLatitude (deg): 28S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 43\n\nNotes: Seemingly double structured CME, with bulk ejecta to the east. Reanalysed parameters for fit. \nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-18T18:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-20T12:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.63, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.45, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.27", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/05/17 21:22Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 02:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 07:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPOS Difference: 5:20\nPOS Midpoint: 04:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:18\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.7\nTravel Time: ~8.7 * 7:18 = 63:32\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-20T12:54Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/18 17:58Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-20T16:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5582.67", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-20T16:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5582.67", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-15T08:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-15T08:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-17T12:40Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright CME seen due West in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is EUV wave seen beyond the SW limb starting at 2024-05-15T08:18Z in SDO AIA 171/193. Widely opening field lines with northern deflection seen on or just beyond the SW limb at an apparent latitude of S15 (before deflection). This CME overlaps heavily with CME: 2024-05-15T08:48Z. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial Bt increase from 6nT->14nT, eventually increasing to almost 17nT at 2024-05-17T14:04Z. There is a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 490 km/s and an increase in ion density. Bz stays negative for almost one day. Around 21Z there is a drop in density, followed by a drop in ion density, possibly indicating a flux rope. However, this arrival signature could also be from 2024-05-14T10:09Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-16T13:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-17T18:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.57", "predictionNote" : "# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40516\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 May 2024, 1258UT\nSIDC FORECAST\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) seen in SOHO/LASCO images as launched at 15 May 08:27 UTC is believed to be two separate CME originating from NOAA Active Regions (AR) 3670 and 3664. The first one is expected to arrive at Earth's environment on the second half on 17 May. The second is expected to deliver at most a glancing blow earlier the same day.\nA CME that registered in SOHO/LASCO images as emitted at 14 May 18:36 UTC is associated with the X8.7 flare of 14 May and is expected to deliver a glancing blow during the second half of 17 May. Due to the expected arrival of the CME of 15 May at approximately the same time, this glancing blow might not be apparent.\n~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~\n[Added Note from M2M Analyst Hannah Hermann: After careful comparison between SIDC notifications and the CMEs populated in DONKI (by M2M), I believe \"the first one\" which is \"originating from Active Region 3670\" corresponds to CME:2024-05-15T08:36Z in DONKI. Additionally, I believe \"the second\" CME \"originating from Active Region 3664\" corresponds to CME:2024-05-15T08:48Z in DONKI. Finally, I believe the CME \"emitted at 14 May 18:36 UTC associated with the X8.7 flare\" corresponds to CME:2024-05-14T17:30Z in DONKI." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-17T18:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5648.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-17T18:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5648.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-14T10:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-14T10:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-17T12:40Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide CME seen to the NE in all coronagraphs (STEREO A gets first visible frame). Source is an unnumbered region of the solar disk, centered around N23E35. Starting around 2024-05-14T09:07Z, field line movement is observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 alongside a diagonal region of light dimming spanning approximately N40E60 -> N15E30 across that center point. A distinct post-eruptive arcade forms around 2024-05-14T10:47Z across SDO AIA 131/171/193/211. Potential arrival signature is characterized by an initial Bt increase from 6nT->14nT, eventually increasing to almost 17nT at 2024-05-17T14:04Z. There is a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 490 km/s and an increase in ion density. Bz stays negative for almost one day. Around 21Z there is a drop in density, followed by a drop in ion density, possibly indicating a flux rope. However, this arrival signature could also be from 2024-05-15T08:36Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-14T18:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-17T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.92", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30858/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-14T10:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-34.0, Lat.=41.0, Speed=744.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2024-05-14T14:54Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-17T23:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-14T22:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-18T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.83, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.55, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.75", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/05/14 10:08Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 17:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 23:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:40\nPOS Midpoint: 20:20Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:12\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.61\nTravel Time: ~8.61 * 10:12 = 87:52\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-18T02:00Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/14 22:53Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-18T00:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5648.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-18T00:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5648.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-13T09:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-13T09:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-15T18:13Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Full asymmetric halo CME seen to the SW in all three coronagraphs. Source is a large eruption and several M-class flares from Active Region 13664, including a long-duration M4.9 flare associated with the post-eruptive arcades. Widely opening field lines and a rising loop of ejecta seen starting at 2024-05-13T08:10Z in SDO AIA 193/171. Ejecta and post-eruptive brightening and arcades seen at 08:43Z in SDO AIA 131/304. Post eruptive arcades seen at 11:15Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. Possible arrival signature is characterized by a small but distinct shock: Bt increasing from around 4nT->7.5nT, with a minimal but noticeable bump in temperature, density, and speed. It is possibly the arrival of the shock front of this CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-15T01:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-15T11:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.88", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/05/13 09:25Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:10Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 18:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:10\nPOS Midpoint: 15:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:50\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.59\nTravel Time: ~8.59 * 5:50 = 50:05\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-15 11:30Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-15T11:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5690.72", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-15T11:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5690.72", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-10T07:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-10T07:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T08:55Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[IN REVIEW] Full asymmetric halo CME seen to the SW in all three coronagraphs. Source is a large eruption and several M-class flares from Active Region 13664, including a long-duration M4.9 flare associated with the post-eruptive arcades. Widely opening field lines and a rising loop of ejecta seen starting at 2024-05-13T08:10Z in SDO AIA 193/171. Ejecta and post-eruptive brightening and arcades seen at 08:43Z in SDO AIA 131/304. Post eruptive arcades at 11:15Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. Possible arrival signature (in review) characterized by Btotal increasing from 5nT 2024-05-11T08:55Z to 12nT at 08:58Z, an increase in solar wind speed from ~820 km/s at 08:55Z to 925 km/s, with an increase in temperature as well.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T13:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.28", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, STEREO A, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-05-10T13:38:36Z\n## Message ID: 20240510-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-05-10T07:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1018 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 31/-2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-05-10T07:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, STEREO A, and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2024-05-14T12:28Z, STEREO A at 2024-05-12T07:16Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-05-12T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-05-12T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-05-10T07:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240510_103500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240510_103500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240510_103500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240510_103500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240510_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240510_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240510_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-05-10T07:12:00-CME-001) is associated with X3.9 flare from Active Region 13664 (S18W37) with ID 2024-05-10T06:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-05-10T06:54Z (see notifications 20240510-AL-001 and 20240510-AL-002).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T14:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T02:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.53, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.98, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.43", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/05/10 07:04Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 11:30Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:30\nPOS Midpoint: 12:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:11\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.38\nTravel Time: ~8.38 * 5:11 = 43:28\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-12T02:32Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/10 14:25Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T20:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T08:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.52", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1018.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1087.00\nAcceleration: -2.80036\nDuration in seconds: 178719.97\nDuration in days: 2.0685182\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.80 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 586.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/05/2024 Time: 08:50 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T20:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T22:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.48", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1018.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 598.374\nAcceleration: 0.480360\nDuration in seconds: 228891.46\nDuration in days: 2.6492067\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.48 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 708.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/05/2024 Time: 22:46 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-11T02:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.65", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time： 2024-05-12T10:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive： 80%\nMax Kp Range： 5-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-11T03:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.42", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-10T09:50\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1170\nLongitude (deg): 25W\nLatitude (deg): 10S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 33\n\nNotes: CME is likely to 'sweep up' preceding CME from X1.1 flare at 09/1743UTC.\nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T10:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5772.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T09:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5772.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-09T18:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-09T18:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T20:30Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[IN REVIEW] Partial halo CME seen in both coronagraphs and associated with an X1.1 flare from AR 3664 (S18W29) with a full halo faint shock and a slightly brighter fuzzy-fronted bulk to the west. The start time is possibly earlier that 2024-05-09T18:23Z bc of a SOHO data gap. Coronal signatures include a sizable ejecta from AR 3664 seen directed north-westwards at ~17:36ZZ in AIA 304, an elongated dimming extending northward and westward of the flare location and stretching as far as the two coronal holes north of the equator. A possible arrival signature is characterized by a weak rotation of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 15nT. A subsequent increase in speed is observed from ~770 km/s to 1005 km/s at 2024-05-12T00:555Z and a sharp increase in temperature. Density appears to decrease preceding this arrival signature. Possibly this is a flank impact/glancing blow arrival. Due to the increase in solar wind speed a coronal hole high speed stream may also be embedded in this signature, originating from a coronal hole which reached the central meridian on 2024-05-03.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T23:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T07:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.92", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, STEREO A, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-05-09T23:35:58Z\n## Message ID: 20240509-AL-011\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-05-09T18:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~895 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 44 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 30/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-05-09T18:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, STEREO A, and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-05-13T03:24Z, STEREO A at 2024-05-11T01:31Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-05-10T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-05-11T07:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-05-09T18:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_02:500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_02:500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_02:500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_02:500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_02:500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_02:500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_02:500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-05-09T18:23:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 3664 (S18W29) with ID 2024-05-09T17:23:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-05-09T17:44Z (see notifications 20240509-AL-007, 20240509-AL-008).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T02:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.08", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-05-11T23:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 80%\nKp Range: 5-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T02:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T02:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.02, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.98, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.53", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/05/09 18:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 00:00Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 02:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NEN Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:20\nPOS Midpoint: 01:10Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:10\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.88\nTravel Time: ~7.88 * 7:10 = 56:28\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-12T02:28Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/10 02:54Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T06:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.33", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-10T22:19Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 888\nLongitude (deg): 31W\nLatitude (deg): 9S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: Fitted to main bulk ejecta rather than shock.\nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T20:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T02:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.15", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 895.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 960.681\nAcceleration: -2.17140\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 201561.28\nDuration in days: 2.3328851\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.17 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 523.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/05/2024 Time: 02:22 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T20:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T12:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.13", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 895.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 531.585\nAcceleration: 0.838696\nDuration in seconds: 236982.67\nDuration in days: 2.7428550\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.84 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 730.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/05/2024 Time: 12:12 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T23:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5784.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-12T00:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5784.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-09T09:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T09:30Z", "maxKP" : 9.0, "dstMin" : -412, "dstMinTime" : "2024-05-12T12:00Z", "cmeNote" : "[IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This halo is associated with the X2.2 class flare from AR13664 peaking at 2024-05-09T09:13Z. A clear EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 211 crossing towards the central meridian and towards the limb in the southwest. Post-eruptive arcades are present in SDO/AIA 193 and 131. Brightening is visible in SDO/AIA 304. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial sheath/compression of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 28nT. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 643 km/s at 09:32Z to 900 km/s at 11:25Z. An increase in density was observed from ~2 N/cm^3 at 09:01Z to ~26 N/cm^3 at 09:22Z, with temperature exhibiting a sharp increase starting around 09:50Z. Due to the high solar wind speed observed with this arrival, it is possible this signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T22:24Z and/or CME: 2024-05-09T09:24Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T15:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.20", "predictionNote" : "This simulation from SWPC contained multiple CMEs, and this predicted arrival time is based on visual inspection of the SWPC ENLIL animation. The CMEs suspected to be contained in this animation run are as follows (listed are the Activity IDs in DONKI): 2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001, 2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001, 2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001, and 2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001. \n\n\nPlease enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 May 10 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at high levels with background flux at or near M1.0.\nRegion 3664 (S19W34, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to exhibit growth\nand produced two R3 (Strong) and eight R1 (Minor) events. The largest\nevents, an X2.2 flare 09/0913 UTC and an X1.1 at 09/1744 UTC, were\naccompanied by Type-II and IV radio sweeps, and complex radio burst\nsignatures were observed across discrete frequencies. A halo CME\nassociated with the X2.2 flare at 09/0913 UTC from Region 3664 is\nEarth-directed with arrival likely on 11 May. Another halo CME,\nassociated with the X1.1 flare at 09/1744 UTC, is undergoing modeling as\nof the time of this writing.\n\nAt present, four halo CMEs (associated with flare activity from Region\n3664 over 08-09 May) and a CME associated with a filament eruption (from\n08 May) are expected to arrive beginning late on 10 May with the bulk of\ngeomagnetic impacts predicted on 11 May. The aforementioned CME\nassociated with the X1.1 flare at 09/1744 UTC will most likely add to\nthe total count, but remains in analysis as of now.\n\n...\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nPeriods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 10\nMay with the possible early arrival of a series of CMEs (from 08-09\nMay). The bulk of the incoming CME(s) is expected to arrive early on 11\nMay with periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming\nexpected, and periods of G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) storms likely. Periods of\nG1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 12 May due to an enhanced\nsolar wind environment following the passage of the 08-09 May CMEs.\n\n.....\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2024 May 10 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 10-May 12 2024 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale\nG4).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown May 10-May 12 2024\n\n May 10 May 11 May 12\n00-03UT 3.33 5.33 (G1) 4.67 (G1)\n03-06UT 3.67 7.00 (G3) 5.67 (G2)\n06-09UT 3.67 8.33 (G4) 4.67 (G1)\n09-12UT 3.00 6.67 (G3) 4.00 \n12-15UT 2.67 5.67 (G2) 3.67 \n15-18UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 2.67 \n18-21UT 4.33 4.67 (G1) 2.67 \n21-00UT 5.33 (G1) 4.33 3.67 \n\nRationale: G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 10-12\nMay due to multiple CMEs from AR 3634 spanning 08-09 May. G3 (Strong) to\nG4 (Severe or greater) geomagnetic storming is likely on 11 May as the\nbulk of the activity is expected to arrive during the early hours of the\nUTC day." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T17:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T05:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.43", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-05-09T17:04:16Z\n## Message ID: 20240509-AL-006\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-05-09T09:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1330 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 19/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-05-12T21:29Z and STEREO A at 2024-05-11T01:10Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-05-11T05:02Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_115600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_115600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_115600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_115600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001) is associated with the X2.2 flare from AR13664 (S20W25) with ID 2024-05-09T08:45:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-05-09T09:13Z (see notifications 20240509-AL-001, 20240509-AL-002).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T17:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T03:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.53, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.4, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.40", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/05/09 09:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 13:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:10\nPOS Midpoint: 14:35Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:20\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.99\nTravel Time: ~7.99 * 5:20 = 42:36\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-11T03:51Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/09 13:47Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T20:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T13:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.03", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30651/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=870.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T09:30Z\n2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=776.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T16:58Z\n2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-23.0, Lat.=3.0, Speed=828.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T23:27Z\n2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=12.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=1130.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T01:43Z\n2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=1330.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T11:56Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-10T13:03Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =22.4 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.1\n(kp)90=8\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-12T04:05Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T07:53Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T20:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.00", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-09T11:30Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1582\nLongitude (deg): 12W\nLatitude (deg): 10S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 42\n\nNotes: CME sweeps up the preceding 3 Earth-directed CMEs from 08 May.\nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T22:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T23:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.65", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): 16.5\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 45\n\ninitial CME speed: 1445.5 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-05-09T11:38Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T02:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.20", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-05-10T21:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 80%\nKp Range: 5-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T15:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T23:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.20", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1330.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1407.43\nAcceleration: -4.55998\nDuration in seconds: 136349.55\nDuration in days: 1.5781198\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -4.56 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 785.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/05/2024 Time: 23:16 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T15:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T19:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.12", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1330.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 767.790\nAcceleration: -0.534665\nDuration in seconds: 210103.21\nDuration in days: 2.4317501\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.53 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 655.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/05/2024 Time: 19:45 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T03:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.2, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5795.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T23:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5795.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-08T22:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T09:30Z", "maxKP" : 9.0, "dstMin" : -412, "dstMinTime" : "2024-05-12T12:00Z", "cmeNote" : "[IN REVIEW] Full halo CME with a bulk portion visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery following a data gap in STEREO A COR2 lasting from 2024-05-08T19:53Z to 2024-05-09T01:53Z. The source is a large eruption and accompanying X1.0 and M9.8 flares from Active Region 13664 (S20W17) staring around 2024-05-08T21:08Z. Two rising loops are seen from Active Region 13664 (S20W17) staring around 2024-05-08T21:29Z and 22:08Z, respectively, as seen in SDO AIA 193/131, which likely resulted in two leading edges which very quickly combine in early frames of SOHO LASCO C2 imagery, and thus are considered one CME. A wide EUV wave and widely opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171/193. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial sheath/compression of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 28nT. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 643 km/s at 09:32Z to 900 km/s at 11:25Z. An increase in density was observed from ~2 N/cm^3 at 09:01Z to ~26 N/cm^3 at 09:22Z, with temperature exhibiting a sharp increase starting around 09:50Z. Due to the high solar wind speed observed with this arrival, it is possible this signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T22:24Z and/or CME: 2024-05-09T09:24Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T15:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.20", "predictionNote" : "This simulation from SWPC contained multiple CMEs, and this predicted arrival time is based on visual inspection of the SWPC ENLIL animation. The CMEs suspected to be contained in this animation run are as follows (listed are the Activity IDs in DONKI): 2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001, 2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001, 2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001, and 2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001. \n\nPlease enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 May 10 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at high levels with background flux at or near M1.0.\nRegion 3664 (S19W34, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to exhibit growth\nand produced two R3 (Strong) and eight R1 (Minor) events. The largest\nevents, an X2.2 flare 09/0913 UTC and an X1.1 at 09/1744 UTC, were\naccompanied by Type-II and IV radio sweeps, and complex radio burst\nsignatures were observed across discrete frequencies. A halo CME\nassociated with the X2.2 flare at 09/0913 UTC from Region 3664 is\nEarth-directed with arrival likely on 11 May. Another halo CME,\nassociated with the X1.1 flare at 09/1744 UTC, is undergoing modeling as\nof the time of this writing.\n\nAt present, four halo CMEs (associated with flare activity from Region\n3664 over 08-09 May) and a CME associated with a filament eruption (from\n08 May) are expected to arrive beginning late on 10 May with the bulk of\ngeomagnetic impacts predicted on 11 May. The aforementioned CME\nassociated with the X1.1 flare at 09/1744 UTC will most likely add to\nthe total count, but remains in analysis as of now.\n\n...\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nPeriods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 10\nMay with the possible early arrival of a series of CMEs (from 08-09\nMay). The bulk of the incoming CME(s) is expected to arrive early on 11\nMay with periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming\nexpected, and periods of G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) storms likely. Periods of\nG1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 12 May due to an enhanced\nsolar wind environment following the passage of the 08-09 May CMEs." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T19:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T23:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.97", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30644/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=12.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=1130.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T01:43Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-10T23:46Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =25.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.3\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-12T18:10Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T19:07Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240509_014300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T20:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T04:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.88, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.95, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.47", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/05/08 22:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 04:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 06:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:30\nPOS Midpoint: 05:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.77\nTravel Time: ~7.77 * 7:00 = 54:22\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-11T04:37Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/09 12:25Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T20:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T19:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.45", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/05/08 22:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 04:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 06:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:30\nPOS Midpoint: 05:15Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.51\nTravel Time: ~6.51 * 7:00 = 45:36\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-10T19:51Z\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\n*** Estimated earliest time of arrival changing the Impact Type from 2 to 3\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/09 12:25Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T20:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T13:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.03", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30651/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=870.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T09:30Z\n2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=776.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T16:58Z\n2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-23.0, Lat.=3.0, Speed=828.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T23:27Z\n2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=12.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=1130.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T01:43Z\n2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=1330.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T11:56Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-10T13:03Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =22.4 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.1\n(kp)90=8\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-12T04:05Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T07:53Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T22:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T18:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.72", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): 8.5\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 42.5\n\ninitial CME speed: 1193.5 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-05-09T01:17Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T02:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.30", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-05-10T21:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 80%\nKp Range: 5-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T10:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T19:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.25", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1130.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1202.03\nAcceleration: -3.40492\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 161154.80\nDuration in days: 1.8652176\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -3.40 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 653.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/05/2024 Time: 19:09 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-10T10:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.23", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1130.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 659.190\nAcceleration: 0.133499\nDuration in seconds: 221808.47\nDuration in days: 2.5672277\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.13 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 688.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/05/2024 Time: 12:00 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T22:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5795.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5795.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-08T19:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T16:36Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[IN REVIEW] This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2 for a few frames prior to and following a data gap lasting from 2024-05-08T19:53Z to 2024-05-09T01:53Z. The source is a filament eruption near Active Region 13667 (S26E22) starting around 2024-05-08T08:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Filament material can be seen against the backdrop of the East limb as the material continues to leave the field of view in SDO AIA 304 around 19:35Z. A large dimming area is seen in SDO AIA 193 at this time, which appears to move southwest of the eruption site. Additionally, some post-eruptive arcades are seen in SDO AIA 171/193 starting around 20:00Z. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T16:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T06:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.95", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-05-09T16:39:40Z\n## Message ID: 20240509-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-05-08T19:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~828 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -23/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Psyche (glancing blow), STEREO A, and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-05-11T06:45Z, and the flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2024-05-15T20:00Z and Lucy at 2024-05-14T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-05-11T06:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T20:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T13:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.13", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30651/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=870.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T09:30Z\n2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=776.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T16:58Z\n2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-23.0, Lat.=3.0, Speed=828.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T23:27Z\n2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=12.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=1130.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T01:43Z\n2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=1330.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T11:56Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-10T13:03Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =22.4 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.1\n(kp)90=8\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-12T04:05Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T07:53Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T21:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5812.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T21:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5812.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-08T12:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T16:36Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[IN REVIEW] Earth-directed full halo seen in all coronagraphs. The source is a large eruption from AR 3664, which included a long-duration M8.6 flare (S22W11) which peaked at 2024-05-08T12:04Z best seen in SDO AIA 131. An EUV wave and field line movement is observed in SDO AIA 94/131/171/211 with some surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. This flare+CME combo resulted in a small rise in protons observed at SOHO and GOES, but not enough for a threshold crossing. The start time used here is when the shock front emerges, with the brighter bulk front emerging ~2024-05-08T13:00Z. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-08T15:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.72", "predictionNote" : "This simulation includes two halo CMEs which have a combined arrival. These two CMEs have start times (as defined by M2M): 2024-05-08T05:36Z and 2024-05-08T12:24Z. \n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 May 08 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n...\nRegion 3664 (S20W15, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) also maintained its delta\nconfiguration and had significant growth in its intermediate and\ntrailer spots. It is now the largest of the regions, with an overall\nareal coverage over 1,000 millionths. This region also produced several\nM-class flares and an X1.0 flare at 08/0509 UTC. The X flare was\naccompanied by Type II and IV sweeps and a 10.7 cm radio burst. A halo\nCME associated with this event is first visible in C2 imagery near\n08/0600 UTC. Preliminary modeling efforts showed an arrival time early\non 11 May. However, additional analysis and modeling are ongoing. \n\nThe remaining spotted active regions were stable or in gradual decay and\nlargely inactive." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-08T16:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T01:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.30", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30568/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=776.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T16:58Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-11T01:39Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =24.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.4\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-13T03:59Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T20:45Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_165800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-08T16:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T00:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.33, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.33, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.05", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): 3.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 45.0\n\ninitial CME speed: 776.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-05-08T16:58Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-08T16:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.70", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-05-11T06:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 80%\nKp Range: 5-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-08T18:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.35", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 792\nLongitude (deg): 05S\nLatitude (deg): 06W\nHalf-angular width (deg): 46\n\nNotes: Likely to 'sweep' up preceding CME from earlier on 08 May and then in turn swept up by CME from X2.2 flare from early 09 May. Timings adjusted to account for combined arrival of multiple CMEs. \nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-08T20:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T22:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.68, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.70", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/05/08 12:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 19:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 21:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:00\nPOS Midpoint: 20:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.84\nTravel Time: ~6.84 * 8:30 = 58:08\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-10T22:18Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/08 18:44Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-08T20:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T08:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 33.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.68", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/05/08 12:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 19:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 21:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:00\nPOS Midpoint: 20:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.09\nTravel Time: ~8.09 * 8:30 = 68:47\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-11T08:57Z\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n*** Estimated latest time of arrival changing the Impact Type from 3 to 2\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/08 18:46Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T12:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T03:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.98", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 776.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 838.468\nAcceleration: -1.59774\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 227664.85\nDuration in days: 2.6350099\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.60 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 474.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/05/2024 Time: 03:38 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T12:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T08:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.97", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 776.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 466.968\nAcceleration: 1.16287\nDuration in seconds: 245233.05\nDuration in days: 2.8383454\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.16 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 752.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/05/2024 Time: 08:31 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T20:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T13:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.13", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30651/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=870.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T09:30Z\n2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=776.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T16:58Z\n2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-23.0, Lat.=3.0, Speed=828.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T23:27Z\n2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=12.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=1130.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T01:43Z\n2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=1330.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T11:56Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-10T13:03Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =22.4 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.1\n(kp)90=8\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-12T04:05Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T07:53Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T00:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 59.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5812.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-11T01:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5812.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-08T05:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T16:36Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[IN REVIEW] Earth-directed full halo seen in all coronagraphs. The source is a large eruption from AR 3664, which included two flares seen in SDO AIA 131, an initial M3.5 (S21W10) followed by the main long-duration X1.0 (S22W10) which peaked at 2024-05-08T04:30Z and 2024-05-08T05:09Z respectively. An EUV wave and field line movement is observed in SDO AIA 94/131/171/211 with some surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. This flare+CME combo resulted in a small rise in protons observed at SOHO and GOES, but not enough for a threshold crossing. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-08T15:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.72", "predictionNote" : "This simulation includes two halo CMEs which have a combined arrival. These two CMEs have start times (as defined by M2M): 2024-05-08T05:36Z and 2024-05-08T12:24Z. \n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 May 08 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n...\nRegion 3664 (S20W15, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) also maintained its delta\nconfiguration and had significant growth in its intermediate and\ntrailer spots. It is now the largest of the regions, with an overall\nareal coverage over 1,000 millionths. This region also produced several\nM-class flares and an X1.0 flare at 08/0509 UTC. The X flare was\naccompanied by Type II and IV sweeps and a 10.7 cm radio burst. A halo\nCME associated with this event is first visible in C2 imagery near\n08/0600 UTC. Preliminary modeling efforts showed an arrival time early\non 11 May. However, additional analysis and modeling are ongoing. \n\nThe remaining spotted active regions were stable or in gradual decay and\nlargely inactive." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-08T18:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T12:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.88", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, STEREO A, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-05-08T18:43:52Z\n## Message ID: 20240508-AL-012\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-05-08T05:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~870 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 9/-7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, STEREO A, and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge will reach Lucy at 2024-05-12T08:48Z, STEREO A at 2024-05-10T07:28Z, and the leading edge or flank of the CME Parker Solar Probe at 2024-05-10T13:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-05-10T12:14Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.5 flare from AR 13664 (S21W10) with ID 2024-05-08T04:20:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-05-08T04:30Z and X1.0 flare 13664 (S22W10) with ID 2024-05-08T04:37:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-05-08T05:09Z (see notifications 20240508-AL-003, 20240508-AL-006).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-08T18:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T13:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.09, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.78, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.72", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/05/08 05:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:50Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction\nPOS Difference: 01:20\nPOS Midpoint: 13:10Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:50\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.22\nTravel Time: ~7.22 * 7:50 = 56:33\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-10T13:53Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/08 13:25Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-08T18:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T23:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.67", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/05/08 05:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:50Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction\nPOS Difference: 01:20\nPOS Midpoint: 13:10Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:50\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.47\nTravel Time: ~8.47 * 7:50 = 66:22\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-10T23:42Z\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\n*** Estimated latest time of arrival changing the Impact Type from 3 to 2\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/08 13:27Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T00:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.03", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-05-10T21:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 80%\nKp Range: 5-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T12:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T14:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.93", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 870.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 935.006\nAcceleration: -2.04804\nDuration in seconds: 206618.86\nDuration in days: 2.3914220\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.05 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 511.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/05/2024 Time: 14:59 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T12:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T23:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.92", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 870.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 518.010\nAcceleration: 0.908637\nDuration in seconds: 238615.64\nDuration in days: 2.7617551\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.91 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 734.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/05/2024 Time: 23:52 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T20:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T13:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.13", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30651/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=870.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T09:30Z\n2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=776.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T16:58Z\n2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-23.0, Lat.=3.0, Speed=828.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T23:27Z\n2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=12.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=1130.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T01:43Z\n2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=1330.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T11:56Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-10T13:03Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =22.4 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.1\n(kp)90=8\n(kp)180=9\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-12T04:05Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T07:53Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-09T22:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T16:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.33, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.33, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.92", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): 12.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 44.0\n\ninitial CME speed: 799.5 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-05-08T09:38Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T17:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5812.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T16:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5812.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-07T05:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-07T05:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T16:36Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is very faint but visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery following a data gap which ends at 2024-05-07T06:53Z. The source may be related to an eruption/rising loop from Active Region 13664 (S25E05) staring around 2024-05-07T03:12Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-07T15:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.98", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30525/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-07T05:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-2.0, Lat.=-32.0, Speed=430.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2024-05-07T12:02Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-10T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-13T00:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T04:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_120200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-07T16:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.58", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30530/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-07T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=-24.0, Speed=381.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2024-05-07T11:21Z\n2024-05-07T05:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-2.0, Lat.=-32.0, Speed=430.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2024-05-07T12:02Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-10T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-13T02:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T06:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5812.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5812.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-07T03:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-07T03:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T16:36Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[IN REVIEW] This CME is faint but visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2 for a few frames prior to and following a data gap lasting from 2024-05-07T02:53Z-06:53Z. The source is likely an eruption near Active Region 13668 (S23E15) starting around 2024-05-07T00:50Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A large dimming area is seen in SDO AIA 193 at this time, which appears to move south of the eruption site. Additionally, rising loops are seen in SDO AIA 131 starting around 01:00Z and in SDO AIA 171/193 around 02:00Z. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-07T13:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.25", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30512/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-07T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=-24.0, Speed=381.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2024-05-07T11:21Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-10T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-13T02:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T06:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-07T16:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.58", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30530/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-07T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=-24.0, Speed=381.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2024-05-07T11:21Z\n2024-05-07T05:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-2.0, Lat.=-32.0, Speed=430.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2024-05-07T12:02Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-10T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-13T02:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T06:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5812.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-10T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5812.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-05-03T02:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-05-03T02:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-05-05T11:30Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "A faint CME with narrow brighter front with filamentary structures (likely the bulk) and a wider fainter but slower front (likely the shock). The source is the X1.6 class flare (N26E05) from AR 3663 peaking at 2024-05-03T02:22Z and an eruption with a faint narrow ejecta seen in AIA 193 directed mostly towards the NE and a faint dimming mostly NE of the active region and post-eruptive arcades seen in AIA 193. Arrival signature: gradual CME arrival signature (likely a flank impact/glancing blow) which on 2024-05-06 is followed by the onset of a high speed stream. There is no shock but a steady growth in magnetic field to 16nT on 2024-05-06, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components, with a prolonged bout of negative Bz (below 10 nT) on the evening of 2024-05-05. The ICME signature also includes an initial build up of ion density and temperature, followed by drops in both parameters.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-03T07:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-05T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.67, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.88", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\n-------- \nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 May 04 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels. Region 3663 (N26W03,\nEkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.6/1b flare (R3/Strong) at 03/0222\nUTC, with accompanying Type II (est. 959 km/s) and Type IV radio\nemissions. The associated CME, first visible in LASCO imagery off the\nNNE at 03/0248 UTC, is expected to arrive late on 05 May or early 06\nMay....\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.Forecast...\nMildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS\ninfluences are expected to prevail over 04-06 May. A stronger\ndisturbance is expected late on 05 May and 06 May due to the anticipated\narrival of the 03 May CME associated with the X1.6 flare detailed above.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled and active levels\non 04 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions\nand periods of G1 (Minor) storming are expected on 05 May due to\ncontinued positive polarity CH HSS influences in addition to the\nanticipated arrival of the 03 May CME late in the day. Periods of G1-G2\n(Minor-Moderate) storming are expected on 06 May due to continued CME\nactivity and CH HSS influences.\n\n-------- \nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2024 May 04 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 04-May 06 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown May 04-May 06 2024\n\n May 04 May 05 May 06\n00-03UT 3.67 3.67 4.67 (G1)\n03-06UT 3.00 3.33 5.67 (G2)\n06-09UT 2.67 2.67 5.67 (G2)\n09-12UT 2.67 2.33 4.67 (G1)\n12-15UT 1.67 2.00 3.67 \n15-18UT 2.67 3.00 3.67 \n18-21UT 3.67 4.00 2.67 \n21-00UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 2.67 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 05 May followed\nby G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) on 06 May due to the arrival of a CME from 03\nMay.\n\n--------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-03T13:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-06T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.07", "predictionNote" : "Simulation for the narrower brighter front with filamentary structures which was deemed likely to be the bulk of the CME. (There is also a much wider fainter front which was also analyzed and labeled as a shock).\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30412/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-05-03T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=33.0, Speed=972.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2024-05-03T06:05Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-06T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-06T08:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-03T15:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-05T12:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.96, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.26, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.90", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/05/03 02:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 09:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 14:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:40\nPOS Midpoint: 11:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.43\nTravel Time: ~6.43 * 9:00 = 57:54\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-05T12:34Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/03 12:45Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-03T15:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-05T09:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.67", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-05-03 06:52\n - Time at C2: 2024-05-03 02:48\n - Radial speed: 841.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 43 deg\n - Eruption location: N29E14\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: X1.6 (N25E07). Peak at 2024-05-03 02:11\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 710.35 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-05-05 09:28 (i.e. predicted transit time: 54.68 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-03T18:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-05T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.40", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-03 06:46\nRadial velocity (km/s): 900\nLongitude (deg): 17\nLatitude (deg): 27\nHalf-angular width (deg): 41\n\nNotes: Northward directed CME assw X1.6 flare from AR3663. Brightest portion of CME heading well north, but wider bulk of CME captured using SOHO and STEREO. Limited frames, so worth another look when more imagery available. \nSpace weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton & Stuart Webster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-03T21:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-05T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.58", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 03/0747\nRadial velocity (km/s): 806\nLongitude (deg): 14E\nLatitude (deg): 23N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 44\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-04T08:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-05T13:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.77", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 841.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 905.223\nAcceleration: -1.90684\nDuration in seconds: 212455.86\nDuration in days: 2.4589798\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.91 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 500.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 05/05/2024 Time: 13:48 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-04T08:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-05T21:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.73", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 841.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 502.263\nAcceleration: 0.988545\nDuration in seconds: 240367.34\nDuration in days: 2.7820295\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.99 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 739.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 05/05/2024 Time: 21:34 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-04T10:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-05T23:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.72", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIGRAM 40504\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 May 2024, 1230UT\n\nCoronal mass ejections: ... Further analysis of the CME, seen at 03:01 UTC on May 03, associated with NOAA AR 3663 and a X1.7-flare shows a possible arrival late on May 05 or early on May 06." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-05-05T19:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-06T11:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7.65", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/05/03 02:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 09:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 14:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:40\nPOS Midpoint: 11:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.94\nTravel Time: ~8.94 * 9:00 = 80:27\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-06T11:07Z\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n*** Estimated latest time of arrival changing the Impact Type from 2 to 0\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/05/05 19:07Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-05T18:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.945, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5937.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-05-05T15:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-5937.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-04-23T09:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-04-23T09:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-04-26T00:17Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M3.0 flare from Active Region 13654 (S06E41) starting around 2024-04-23T08:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A small EUV wave is visible moving NE from the source, and post-eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2024-04-23T10:30Z in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. Arrival signature is characterized by an initial jump in solar wind speed from around 300->370 km/s alongside a jump in temperature, and a slow rise in Btotal and density starting around 2024-04-26T01:08Z, reaching a total of around 9.7 nT. Bz is predominantly southward reaching around -9nT. In the bulk speed and proton density the shock is well defined.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-24T17:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-26T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.32", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30263/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-04-23T09:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=484.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-04-23T15:46Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-26T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-30T00:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-26T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-26T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6164.65", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-26T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6164.65", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-04-15T06:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-04-19T04:53Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E30 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-15T05:36Z. ARRIVAL: Sudden increase in B-total from 5nT to 15nT detected by both DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-04-19T04:53Z. Simultaneous sudden increase in density at the start time of arrival, 2024-04-19T04:53Z. A sudden increase in temperature and speed is observed later at 2024-04-19T13:44Z, likely indicating the arrival of a flux rope. Corresponding rotation of B-field components observed in DSCOVR, which was the primary spacecraft at the time. Signature also observed in ACE. A gradual increase to peak value of 18nT was also observed during flux rope arrival. Bz remained predominantly in the negative regime for this arrival.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-15T19:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-17T22:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-30.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.42", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30081/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=724.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2024-04-15T10:52Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-17T22:44Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =25.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-17T21:23Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-15T19:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-17T21:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.20", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-15 10:52\n - Time at C2: 2024-04-15 06:48\n - Radial speed: 724.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 36 deg\n - Eruption location: N06E10\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 623.20 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-04-17 21:41 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.90 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-15T20:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-17T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-36.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.98", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (STEREO A, Lucy, Psyche, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-04-15T20:54:13Z\n## Message ID: 20240415-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-04-14T11:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~859 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-04-15T06:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~724 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -10/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and Psyche (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO A at 2024-04-17T01:34Z, and the flank of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-04-21T00:00Z, and Psyche at 2024-04-21T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-04-17T01:05Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001, 2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe first CME event (2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.0 flare from AR 3636 (S17E44) with ID 2024-04-14T10:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-04-14T11:01Z.\n\nThe second CME event (2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.6 flare from AR 3636 (S17E30) with ID 2024-04-15T05:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-04-15T06:00Z.\n\nThe two CMEs in this simulation did not combine prior to impacting STEREO A and Earth, leading to a double peaked arrival in the STEREO A and Earth timelines. The second CME (2024-04-15T06:48Z) will impact STEREO A around 2024-04-17T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) and Earth around 2024-04-17T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The CMEs merge closer to each other after 1AU for impacts at Lucy and Psyche, with a slight separation remaining between the fronts. \n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-15T23:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-19T03:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.52, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.11, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "77.50", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/04/15 06:30Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 17:30Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 20:30Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:00\nPOS Midpoint: 19:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.43\nTravel Time: ~7.43 * 12:30 = 92:49\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-04-19T03:19Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/04/15 23:22Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-16T02:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-18T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.75", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 15/1142\nRadial velocity (km/s): 640\nLongitude (deg): 10E\nLatitude (deg): 12N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-16T04:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-18T12:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.97", "predictionNote" : "The input parameters for SPM are:\nInitial shock speed: 724 km/s \nSolar wind speed: 380 km/s\nDuration time: 0.17 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-16T04:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-17T23:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.90", "predictionNote" : "The input parameters for SPM2 are:\nInitial shock speed: 724 km/s \nSource location: N06E10 \nSolar wind speed: 380 km/s\nDuration time: 0.17 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-16T12:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-18T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.02", "predictionNote" : "Issued: 2024 Apr 16 1205 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA faint partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 06:48 UTC on Apr 15. The CME is directed primarily to the North from the Earth's perspective and is likely associated with a small filament eruption near NOAA AR 3636. Current analysis suggests that this CME may have an Earth directed component, with a predicted arrival time of late on Apr 17 - early on Apr 18.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-18T04:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6328.05", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-18T00:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6328.05", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-04-14T11:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-04-17T08:55Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E40 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-14T10:09Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-15T00:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-17T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.68", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-15T19:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-17T01:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.67", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30080/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=859.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2024-04-14T14:48Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-17T01:06Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =27.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-17T01:35Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-21T00:00Z\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-21T18:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-15T20:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-17T01:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.02", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (STEREO A, Lucy, Psyche, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-04-15T20:54:13Z\n## Message ID: 20240415-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-04-14T11:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~859 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-04-15T06:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~724 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -10/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and Psyche (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO A at 2024-04-17T01:34Z, and the flank of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-04-21T00:00Z, and Psyche at 2024-04-21T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-04-17T01:05Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001, 2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe first CME event (2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.0 flare from AR 3636 (S17E44) with ID 2024-04-14T10:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-04-14T11:01Z.\n\nThe second CME event (2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.6 flare from AR 3636 (S17E30) with ID 2024-04-15T05:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-04-15T06:00Z.\n\nThe two CMEs in this simulation did not combine prior to impacting STEREO A and Earth, leading to a double peaked arrival in the STEREO A and Earth timelines. The second CME (2024-04-15T06:48Z) will impact STEREO A around 2024-04-17T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) and Earth around 2024-04-17T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The CMEs merge closer to each other after 1AU for impacts at Lucy and Psyche, with a slight separation remaining between the fronts. \n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-15T21:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-16T21:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.95", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-14 14:48\n - Time at C2: 2024-04-14 11:12\n - Radial speed: 859.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 34 deg\n - Eruption location: N02E20\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 663.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-04-16 21:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.78 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-16T19:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-17T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.42", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-04-14T15:53\nRadial velocity (km/s): 680\nLongitude (deg): 25E\nLatitude (deg): 4N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 38\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-16T19:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-17T01:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.9, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.37", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-04-17T01:39:10Z\n## Message ID: 20240417-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001 and 2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240415-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME with ID 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001 may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2024-04-16T16:10Z and 2024-04-17T08:22Z (average arrival 2024-04-17T01:26Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-04-16T17:15Z and 2024-04-17T07:52Z (average arrival 2024-04-17T01:09Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-7 range (below minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe two CMEs in this simulation did not combine prior to impacting STEREO A and Earth, leading to a double peaked arrival in the STEREO A and Earth timelines. The second CME (2024-04-15T06:48Z) may impact STEREO A around 2024-04-17T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) and Earth around 2024-04-17T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on visual inspection of the simulation output.\n\nAdditionally, the combined flank of the CMEs were also predicted to impact Lucy at 2024-04-21T00:00Z (glancing blow) and Psyche at 2024-04-21T18:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240415-AL-002). \n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/Detailed_results_20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061.txt\n###\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-17T04:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.2, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.4, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6372.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-17T01:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6372.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-04-12T02:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-04-12T02:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-04-16T09:20Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint halo visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source is a filament eruption centered around S15W20 with liftoff starting around 2024-04-12T00:16Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and a faint EUV wave may also be observed in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are also visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also seen south of disk center from the point of view of STEREO A EUV imagery. ARRIVAL: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-04-16T09:20Z to 12nT at 10:07Z. A subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed was also observed from ~360 km/s at 07:34Z to 410 km/s at 07:59Z. This was accompanied by a slight increase in density as well, reaching 16 N(cm^-3) at 09:36Z. However, ACE contains spurious density data points around this time so the density data is more speculative than the other solar wind parameters. This arrival signature may have partially overlapoed with the arrival of CME: 2024-04-11T07:00Z", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-12T16:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-14T16:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-41.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "89.00", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Lucy, Psyche, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-04-12T16:20:19Z\n## Message ID: 20240412-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-04-12T02:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~743 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 4/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-04-12T02:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and Psyche (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-04-14T11:45Z and the flank may reach Lucy at 2024-04-17T00:00Z and Psyche at 2024-04-19T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-04-14T16:20Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-7 (below minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-04-12T02:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240412_060500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240412_060500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240412_060500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240412_060500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240412_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240412_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-12T17:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-14T16:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-40.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "88.00", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30011/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-04-11T07:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-31.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=911.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-04-11T10:18Z\n2024-04-12T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=4.0, Lat.=-17.0, Speed=743.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-04-12T06:05Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-14T16:49Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =25.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.5\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-14T12:02Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-12T19:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-14T15:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.43, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.51, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-41.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "85.52", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nNotification from: Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office Notifications\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-04-13T11:53:38Z\n## Message ID: 20240413-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-04-12T02:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240412-AL-001).Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2024-04-14T06:49Z and 2024-04-14T15:24Z (average arrival 2024-04-14T11:08Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-04-14T11:17Z and 2024-04-14T20:14Z (average arrival 2024-04-14T15:43Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 65% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-12_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA060/20240412_020000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA060_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-12_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA060/20240412_020000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA060_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-12_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA060/20240412_020000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA060_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-12_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA060/20240412_020000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA060_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-12_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA060/20240412_020000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA060_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2024-04-12T02:00:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Lucy at 2024-04-17T00:00Z (glancing blow) and Psyche at 2024-04-19T06:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240412-AL-001).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-12_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA060/Detailed_results_20240412_020000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA060.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-12T21:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-14T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-34.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "83.83", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 16:01\nRadial velocity (km/s): 625\nLongitude (deg): W17\nLatitude (deg): N01\nHalf-angular width (deg): 43\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-12T22:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-15T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-30.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.53", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-04-12T06:20Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 670\nLongitude (deg): 002W\nLatitude (deg): 14S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 39\n\nNotes: Filament eruption just SW of centre disc. Faint halo on C2 and St A, mainly visible E and N of Sun-Earth line, but probable full halo. Only a couple of usable C3, and close in/very faint. Independently re-analysed by second forecaster and obtained very similar numbers, this fit is a halfway-house but very little adjustment was required. MOSWOC Enlil has the tail of a fictitious 600km/s fast wind initially, and the deterministic arrival of 15/0100UTC is probably not braked enough by the interplanetary medium. The degree of correction to apply is very uncertain. G2 probable.\n\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence, after Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-12T22:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-15T11:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.85, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.2, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.50", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/04/12 01:05Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:00Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:40Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:40\nPOS Midpoint: 12:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:45\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.13\nTravel Time: ~7.13 * 11:10 = 82:43\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-04-15T11:48Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/04/12 22:45Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-13T12:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-15T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-30.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.73", "predictionNote" : "# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40413\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Apr 2024, 1230UT\n\n...Coronal mass ejections: A faint partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 and SOHO/LASCO-C3 starting from 02:30 UTC on April 12th. It is probably associated with the filament eruption observed in SDO/AIA 304 data at 01:10 UTC on April 12th. It is expected to arrive early on April 15th. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-13T14:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-14T15:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.67, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.67, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-42.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.78", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): 4.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35\n\ninitial CME speed: 743.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-04-12T06:05Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-15T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-16T02:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.33", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/04/12 01:05Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:00Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:40Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:40\nPOS Midpoint: 12:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:45\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.29\nTravel Time: ~8.29 * 11:45 = 97:26\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-04-16T02:31Z\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n*** Latest possible estimated arrival time changing the Impact Type from 3 to 2\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/04/15 15:57Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-15T01:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 73.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.83333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.83333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-32.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6395.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-14T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 72.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-34.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6395.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-04-11T07:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-04-11T07:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-04-15T17:27Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is unclear due to the CME's faintness. The candidate source is a filament eruption centered around N20E10, with liftoff starting around 2024-04-11T05:48Z in SDO AIA 304. The filament can be seen deflecting to the east. The eruption is also best seen as dimming in SDO AIA 193. STEREO A EUV 195/304 also observes the eruption. ARRIVAL: characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 4nT at 2024-04-15T17:27Z to 10nT at 19:22Z. A subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed was also observed from ~330 km/s at 17:27Z to 390 km/s at 18:14Z. This was accompanied by a slight increase in density as well. A possible flux rope arrival appeared around 2024-04-16T09:30Z for which a stronger amplification of magnetic field components was observed, with Btotal increasing to 13nT at 13:03Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-12T12:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-14T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-22.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "77.05", "predictionNote" : "Issued: 2024 Apr 12 1231 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40412\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Apr 2024, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\n...\nCoronal mass ejections: A faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the south- east limb was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 around 06:30 UTC on April 11th. It is probably associated with the filament eruption near the central meridian reported on April 11th. A possible glancing blow may be expected late on April 14th.\n..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-12T17:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-14T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.97", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-04-12T17:29:46Z\n## Message ID: 20240412-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-04-11T07:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~911 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -31/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-04-11T07:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Psyche (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2024-04-18T18:00Z and STEREO A at 2024-04-14T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-04-14T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n \n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-04-11T07:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240411_101800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-13T00:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-13T20:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.38, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.97, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-44.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.20", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/04/11 06:35Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 10:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 17:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 7:20\nPOS Midpoint: 13:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:05\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.75\nTravel Time: ~8.75 * 7:05 = 61:59\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-04-13T20:34Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time Square Root: 50%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/04/12 23:32Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-04-13T14:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-13T22:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.67, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.67, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-42.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.95", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): -31.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35\n\ninitial CME speed: 911.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-04-11T10:18Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-14T06:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-34.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6411.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-04-14T05:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6411.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-03-23T01:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T14:10Z", "maxKP" : 8.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo to the NW following the front of the earlier 2024-03-23T01:25Z CME, with a faint shock front portion seen to SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. There is a data gap in STEREO A COR2 from 2024-03-22T18:23Z to 2024-03-23T03:23Z, after which the end of this event is seen for a few frames before exiting the field of view. A possible source could be the slower developing dimming to the SSW of Active Region 3614 (N25E07) following the deep northern dimming to the NE of this Active Region. Alternative source could be the concurrent flare from Active Region 3615 (S14E15). Combined arrival of this CME with CME: 2024-03-23T01:25Z was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-03-24T14:10Z. The arrival signature is characterized by significant sharp increase in B-total from 6nT to 26nT, eventually reaching 33nT. There is a corresponding jump in solar wind speed from 550 km/s to 851 km/s, with a peak of 880 km/s and an increase in density and temperature seen at ~14:10Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T16:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T17:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.32", "predictionNote" : "2-CME simulation, with CMEs arriving at L1 as a combined front:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Psyche, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-03-23T16:51:43Z\n## Message ID: 20240323-AL-012\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-03-23T01:25Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1613 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 2/22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001\n\n2: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-03-23T01:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1572 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 5/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Psyche (minor impact). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-03-23T14:01Z, STEREO A at 2024-03-24T15:36Z, and Psyche at 2024-03-27T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-03-24T17:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001, 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThese CME events (2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001) are associated with X1.1 flare with ID 2024-03-23T00:58:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13614 (N25E07) which peaked at 2024-03-23T01:33Z and simultaneous flare from Active Region 13615 (S14E15) (see notifications 20240323-AL-001 and 20240323-AL-002), as well as with SEP at SOHO with ID 2024-03-23T06:49:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20240323-AL-006), SEP at GOES with ID 2024-03-23T08:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240323-AL-003, 20240323-AL-005), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-03-23T09:55:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240323-AL-004 and 20240323-AL-006).\n\nThese CME events are still under analysis and updates will be provided when available.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T17:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T12:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.58, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.58, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.82", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): +5.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35\n\ninitial CME speed: 1572.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-03-23T03:50Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T18:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T16:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.22, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 1.97, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.62", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/03/23 01:16Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 05:00Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 08:20Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:20\nPOS Midpoint: 06:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:24\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.2\nTravel Time: ~7.2 * 5:24 = 38:53\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-03-24T16:09Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/03/23 08:59Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T20:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.73", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T21:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T08:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.70", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1572.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1655.96\nAcceleration: -6.08703\nDuration in seconds: 112306.91\nDuration in days: 1.2998485\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -6.09 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 972.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/03/2024 Time: 08:59 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T21:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-25T07:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.68", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1572.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 899.196\nAcceleration: -1.42674\nDuration in seconds: 193988.47\nDuration in days: 2.2452369\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.43 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 622.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/03/2024 Time: 07:41 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T22:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T21:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.13", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-03-23 03:35\n - Time at C2: 2024-03-23 01:48\n - Radial speed: 1571.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 46 deg\n - Eruption location: S02W09\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 877.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-03-24 21:34 (i.e. predicted transit time: 43.78 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-24T01:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T22:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.17", "predictionNote" : "2-CME ensemble with CMEs with IDs 2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001 \n\nEnsemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n\nNotification from: Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office Notifications\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-03-24T13:14:38Z\n## Message ID: 20240324-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240323-AL-013). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A between about 2024-03-24T13:59Z and 2024-03-25T04:12Z (average arrival 2024-03-24T19:28Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-03-24T16:47Z and 2024-03-25T07:59Z (average arrival 2024-03-24T22:32Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 57% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-03-23_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059/20240323_012500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-03-23_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059/20240323_012500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-03-23_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059/20240323_012500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-03-23_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059/20240323_012500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-03-23_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059/20240323_012500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThese CME events (2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001) are also predicted to have an impact Solar Orbiter at 2024-03-23T14:01Z, Psyche at 2024-03-27T22:00Z (minor impact) and Lucy at 2024-03-27T16:00Z (minor impact) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notifications 20240323-AL-012 and 20240323-AL-013)\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-03-23_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059/Detailed_results_20240323_012500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-24T02:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.50", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-03-24T12:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 80%\nKp Range: 6-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-24T07:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-25T09:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 17.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 17.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.82", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 1000 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 500 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 0 deg" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6942.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T19:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6942.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-03-23T01:25Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T14:10Z", "maxKP" : 8.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright partial halo CME first seen to the north in SOHO LASCO C2 (appearing a few timestamps before the second northern front of 2024-03-23T01:48Z CME and earlier than the faint full halo to the SW). The CME is associated with the X1.1-class flare from Active Region 3614 centered ~N25E07 and with associated eruption seen as EUV wave in SDO AIA 193, and as a NE-SW oriented large area of dimming/post eruptive arcades centered ~around Active Region 3614. X-class flare was accompanied by/contributed to by concurrent flare from Active Region 3615 (S14E15). Combined arrival of this CME with CME: 2024-03-23T01:48Z was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-03-24T14:10Z. The arrival signature is characterized by sharp increase in B-total from 6nT to 26nT, reaching 33nT and by a jump in solar wind speed from about 550 km/s to 851 km/s, with a peak of 880 km/s and an increase in density and temperature seen at ~14:10Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T16:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T17:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.32", "predictionNote" : "2-CME simulation, with CMEs arriving at L1 as a combined front:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Psyche, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-03-23T16:51:43Z\n## Message ID: 20240323-AL-012\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-03-23T01:25Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1613 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 2/22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001\n\n2: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-03-23T01:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1572 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 5/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Psyche (minor impact). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-03-23T14:01Z, STEREO A at 2024-03-24T15:36Z, and Psyche at 2024-03-27T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-03-24T17:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001, 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThese CME events (2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001) are associated with X1.1 flare with ID 2024-03-23T00:58:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13614 (N25E07) which peaked at 2024-03-23T01:33Z and simultaneous flare from Active Region 13615 (S14E15) (see notifications 20240323-AL-001 and 20240323-AL-002), as well as with SEP at SOHO with ID 2024-03-23T06:49:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20240323-AL-006), SEP at GOES with ID 2024-03-23T08:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240323-AL-003, 20240323-AL-005), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-03-23T09:55:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240323-AL-004 and 20240323-AL-006).\n\nThese CME events are still under analysis and updates will be provided when available.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T17:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T11:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.58, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.58, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.87", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): +2.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35\n\ninitial CME speed: 1613.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-03-23T03:19Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T18:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T16:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.22, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 1.97, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.82", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/03/23 01:16Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 05:00Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 08:20Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:20\nPOS Midpoint: 06:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:24\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.2\nTravel Time: ~7.2 * 5:24 = 38:53\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-03-24T16:09Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5\n\nForecast Creation Time: 2024/03/23 08:59Z" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T21:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T07:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.67", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1613.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1698.07\nAcceleration: -6.35978\nDuration in seconds: 109277.61\nDuration in days: 1.2647872\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -6.36 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 1003.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/03/2024 Time: 07:46 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T21:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-25T06:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.65", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1613.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 921.459\nAcceleration: -1.58695\nDuration in seconds: 191867.45\nDuration in days: 2.2206881\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.59 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 617.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/03/2024 Time: 06:42 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T22:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T21:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.15", "predictionNote" : "ME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-03-23 03:19\n - Time at C2: 2024-03-23 01:25\n - Radial speed: 1613.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 41 deg\n - Eruption location: N22W02\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: X1.1 (N27E08). Peak at 2024-03-23 00:58\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 880.88 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-03-24 21:01 (i.e. predicted transit time: 43.60 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-23T22:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T16:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.41, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.41, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.73", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\n\nupdated initial parameters for ELEvo using the actual shock arrival time at Solar Orbiter: 2024-03-23T13:30:00Z\n\nApex direction (deg): +2.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35\n\ninitial CME speed: 1312.5 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-03-23T03:19Z\ndrag parameter: 0.11e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 420 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-24T01:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T22:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.17", "predictionNote" : "2-CME ensemble with CMEs with IDs 2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001 \n\nEnsemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n\nNotification from: Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office Notifications\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-03-24T13:14:38Z\n## Message ID: 20240324-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240323-AL-013). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A between about 2024-03-24T13:59Z and 2024-03-25T04:12Z (average arrival 2024-03-24T19:28Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-03-24T16:47Z and 2024-03-25T07:59Z (average arrival 2024-03-24T22:32Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 57% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-03-23_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059/20240323_012500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-03-23_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059/20240323_012500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-03-23_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059/20240323_012500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-03-23_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059/20240323_012500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-03-23_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059/20240323_012500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThese CME events (2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001) are also predicted to have an impact Solar Orbiter at 2024-03-23T14:01Z, Psyche at 2024-03-27T22:00Z (minor impact) and Lucy at 2024-03-27T16:00Z (minor impact) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notifications 20240323-AL-012 and 20240323-AL-013)\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-03-23_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059/Detailed_results_20240323_012500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA059.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-24T01:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-25T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.83", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 03:36\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1442\nLongitude (deg): E07\nLatitude (deg): N23\nHalf-angular width (deg): 51\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-24T02:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.05", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-24T02:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.48", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-03-24T12:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 80%\nKp Range: 6-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-24T12:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-25T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "1.63", "predictionNote" : "Event id=\"393\"\n\n:From Presto Alert Issued: 2024 Mar 24 1317 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe halo CME reported yesterday as launched yesterday at 01:33 UTC arrived at the Solar Orbiter (SO) location yesterday at 13:00 UTC. Based on the SO in situ measurements a new estimation of its arrival time to the Earth's environment can be made. It is now expected to reach Earth at the second half of 25 Mar.\n\nexpected arrival time: 2024-03-25T15:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 5\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 8\nprobability_of_arrival: 90\n\nFrom CME arrival email:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n sidctech@oma.be\n \n \n 2024-03-24T12:32:12\n \n \n 393\n \n 1\n \n CME_arrival\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2024-03-25T15:00:00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T20:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.42857, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.57143, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6942.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-24T19:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6942.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-03-17T03:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T01:50Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the S/SE in coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. A large western portion of the filament appears to deflect south/southeast, which is likely associated with this event. Dimming is visible from the eruption site in SDO AIA 193 shortly after the filament lifts-off and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:12Z, which also likely stems from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-17T16:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.22", "predictionNote" : "Simulation result for bulk measurement of CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z only.\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29635/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=-48.0, Speed=499.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2024-03-17T10:55Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-03-21T01:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-03-18T18:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-03-20T23:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-17T17:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T05:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "80.12", "predictionNote" : "2-CME simulation result for the bulk measurements of CME: 2024-03-17T03:12Z and CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z.\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-03-17T17:43:13Z\n## Message ID: 20240317-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-03-17T03:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~499 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -24/-48 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-03-17T03:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~325 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/-35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Solar Orbiter and STEREO A (minor impact). The leading edge of the CMEs may reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-03-18T22:49Z and STEREO A at 2024-03-20T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-03-21T05:53Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-17T18:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-20T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "78.98", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-03-17 10:40Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 460km/s\nLongitude (deg): 24S\nLatitude (deg): 15W\nHalf-angular width (deg): 23\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-18T09:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-20T18:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 13.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.4, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.35", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): W24\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35\n\ninitial CME speed: 528.5 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-03-17T10:36Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-18T09:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T04:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.6, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.27", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 380 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 280 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 10 deg" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-20T22:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T01:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.88, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.71, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "3.03", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/03/17 02:45Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 13:30Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:30Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:00\nPOS Midpoint: 14:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:45\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.09\nTravel Time: ~8.09 * 11:45 = 95:06\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-03-21T01:51Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n*** Impact type changed from 3 to 2 from the previous forecast" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T00:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7027.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T01:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7027.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-03-17T03:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T01:50Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. Dimming is visible from the eruption site shortly after the filament lifts-off, starting around 02:37Z, seen in SDO AIA 193 and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z, which also likely occurs from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-17T16:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T07:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "80.88", "predictionNote" : "Simulation result for bulk measurement of CME: 2024-03-17T03:12Z only.\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29636/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=-35.0, Speed=325.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-03-17T14:35Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-03-21T07:11Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =19.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.8\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-03-18T23:19Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-03-21T02:18Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-17T17:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T05:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "80.12", "predictionNote" : "2-CME simulation result for the bulk measurements of CME: 2024-03-17T03:12Z and CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z.\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-03-17T17:43:13Z\n## Message ID: 20240317-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-03-17T03:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~499 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -24/-48 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-03-17T03:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~325 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/-35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Solar Orbiter and STEREO A (minor impact). The leading edge of the CMEs may reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-03-18T22:49Z and STEREO A at 2024-03-20T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-03-21T05:53Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-17T18:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-20T11:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.77, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.6, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "78.98", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/03/17 02:45Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 13:30Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:30Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:00\nPOS Midpoint: 14:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:45\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.84\nTravel Time: ~6.84 * 11:45 = 80:22\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-03-20T11:07Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-17T18:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-20T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "78.93", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-03-17T08:39Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 685\nLongitude (deg): 07E\nLatitude (deg): 34S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 23\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-03-18T09:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T11:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 21.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 21.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.42", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): E20.5\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35\n\ninitial CME speed: 413.5 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-03-17T12:08Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 50k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T01:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7027.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-21T05:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7027.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-02-28T23:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-03-03T08:47Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "High southern latitude CME visible in the SE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The source is an eruption near AR 3591 (S35E10) with dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2024-02-28T20:15Z. Opening/rising field lines and post eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 171/193.\nNot visible in STEREO A COR2 until the CME is almost out of the field of view due to a data gap 2024-02-28T13:23Z to 2024-02-29T03:09Z. Arrival note: Characterized initially as a jump in Bt from around 3nT to 5nT, with more notable spikes in density, temperature, and speed from around 280 km/s to 320 km/s. Bt slowly rose to around 19nT by 2024-03-03T11:00Z with a long, sustained southward Bz reaching -16nT. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-29T19:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-04T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.30", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-02-29T19:29:06Z\n## Message ID: 20240229-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-02-28T23:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~779 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -11/-42 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-03-02T04:00Z and STEREO A at 2024-03-03T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-03-04T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240229_031300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240229_031300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240229_031300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240229_031300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240229_031300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240229_031300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240229_031300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-04T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7452.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-04T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7452.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-02-28T17:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-02-28T17:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-03-03T08:47Z", "maxKP" : 5.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright CME visible in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 associated with a M1.5-class flare from AR 3590 (N19W59) starting at 2024-02-28T16:24Z. Dimming visible in SDO AIA 193, rising loops and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and flare with long-lasting post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 94/131. Not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-02-28T13:23Z to 2024-02-29T03:09Z. Arrival note: Characterized initially as a jump in Bt from around 3nT to 5nT, with more notable spikes in density, temperature, and speed from around 280 km/s to 320 km/s. Bt slowly rose to around 19nT by 2024-03-03T11:00Z with a long, sustained southward Bz reaching -16nT. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-29T09:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-03T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.85", "predictionNote" : "Event id=\"389\"\nexpected arrival time: 2024-03-03T05:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 4\nprobability_of_arrival: 20\n\nfrom SIDC URSIGRAM Issued: 2024 Feb 29 1231 UTC\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40229\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Feb 2024, 1230UT\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24\nhours was at moderate levels. The largest flares was an M1.3 flare with\npeak time at 18:19 UTC on February 28 from NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta).\n...\nCoronal mass ejections: A westward partial halo coronal mass ejection\n(CME), with angular width of about 140 degrees, was first detected in the\nLASCO/C2 data at around 17:48 UTC on February 28. The CME originated from\nNOAA AR 3590 in the north-west quadrant of the solar visible disk, and was\nassociated with the long-duration M1.3-class flare peaking at 18:19 UTC.\nThe plane-of-the-sky speed of the CME was around 500 km/s and may result in\na flank encounter at Earth early on March 3.\n\n\nThe xml version of the CME arrival alert:\n \n \n \n sidctech@oma.be\n \n \n 2024-02-29T09:56:44\n \n \n 389\n \n 0\n \n CME_arrival\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2024-03-03T05:00:00\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n sidctech@oma.be\n \n \n 2024-02-29T09:56:44\n \n \n 389\n \n 0\n \n CME_arrival\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2024-03-03T05:00:00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-29T16:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-04T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.27", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-02-29T16:31:00Z\n## Message ID: 20240229-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-02-28T17:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~730 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 59/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-02-28T17:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy (minor impact), OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-03-06T00:00Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-03-03T00:00Z, and STEREO A at 2024-03-03T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-03-04T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-02-28T17:48:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240228_225100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240228_225100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240228_225100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240228_225100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240228_225100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240228_225100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240228_225100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-02-28T17:48:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.5 flare with ID 2024-02-28T16:24:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13590 (N19W90) which peaked at 2024-02-28T18:54Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-29T17:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-02T16:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.67", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/02/28 17:50Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 00:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 06:40Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:20\nPOS Midpoint: 03:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:40\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.34\nTravel Time: ~7.34 * 9:40 = 70:54\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-03-02T16:44Z\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-03T09:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7452.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-03-03T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7452.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-02-21T18:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-02-21T18:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-02-24T16:16Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide partial halo CME to the west, associated with a beautiful filament eruption seen after 2024-02-21T17:30Z in AIA 304 traversing the western part of the disk and later as prominence off the western limb in SUVI 304. There is also an area of deep dimming and post eruptive arcades centered at (~N05W40) and stretching along 40th longitude (from lat -3 to 20) in AIA 193 associated with this eruption.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-22T03:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-25T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.67, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.98", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Feb 22 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n...\n\nAn eruptive filament was observed starting around 21/1500 UTC in the\nnorthwest quadrant and an eruptive prominence was observed around\n21/1600 UTC on the southeast limb. Analysis and modeling showed the bulk\nof the ejecta being ahead of Earth's orbit. However, a glancing\ninfluence remains possible on 25 Feb.\n\n----------\n\nSpace Weather Message Code: WATA20\nSerial Number: 989\nIssue Time: 2024 Feb 22 1917 UTC\n\nWATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted\n\nHighest Storm Level Predicted by Day:\nFeb 23: None (Below G1) Feb 24: None (Below G1) Feb 25: G1 (Minor)\n\n--------\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2024 Feb 23 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n...\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 23-Feb 25 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 23-Feb 25 2024\n\n Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb 25\n00-03UT 1.67 1.67 3.00 \n03-06UT 1.33 1.33 2.00 \n06-09UT 1.33 1.33 2.00 \n09-12UT 1.33 1.33 3.33 \n12-15UT 1.33 1.33 4.00 \n15-18UT 1.33 1.33 4.67 (G1)\n18-21UT 1.67 1.67 4.00 \n21-00UT 1.67 1.67 3.33" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-22T13:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-24T16:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.50", "predictionNote" : "Flank impact or glancing blow.\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29340/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-02-21T18:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=40.0, Lat.=-2.0, Speed=576.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-02-22T01:00Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-02-24T16:44Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =15.7 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.3\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-24T14:26Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-22T14:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-24T14:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.45", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-02-22 01:00\n - Time at C2: 2024-02-21 18:36\n - Radial speed: 576.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: S02W40\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 578.80 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-02-24 14:44 (i.e. predicted transit time: 68.13 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-22T14:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-24T15:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.45, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.93, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.33", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/02/21 18:35Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 03:00Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 08:10Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction\nPOS Difference: 5:10\nPOS Midpoint: 05:35Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.24\nTravel Time: ~6.24 * 11:00 = 68:41\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-02-24T15:16Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5\n\n * Edit notes: Incorrect values were used for the previous prediction" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-23T08:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-25T12:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.77", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40222\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Feb 2024, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 22 Feb 2024 10CM FLUX: 174 / AP: 008 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 23 Feb 2024 10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 010 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 24 Feb 2024 10CM FLUX: 178 / AP: 008\n\nCoronal mass ejections: ...A second westward partial halo CME was detected in the LASCO/C2 data at 18:36 UTC on February 21th. The CME is associated with a filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 & 193 at 17:37 on February 21th in the north-west quadrant of visible solar disk. The CME has an estimated plane-of-sky speed of around 450 km/s although the bulk of the ejection will miss Earth, a glancing blow arrival is possible on February 25th..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-24T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-25T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "0.27", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-02-22T01:15Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 540\nLongitude (deg): 046W\nLatitude (deg): 05S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 50 \n\nNotes: Glancing impact at most. Low confidence in fit due to lack of StA.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-24T23:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 47.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.8, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.734, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7636.67", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-24T21:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 47.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7636.67", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-02-10T23:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T01:38Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo shock to the north with bulk portion to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and following a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M9.0 flare from AR13576 starting at 2024-02-10T22:56Z with clear deflection NW seen as dimming and EUV wave in SDO/AIA 193, 211, 304, and 171. There is also filament ejecta seen during and following the eruption in SDO/AIA 304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-11T02:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T14:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.67", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-02-11T02:58:01Z\n## Message ID: 20240211-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-02-10T23:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~912 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 13/16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A, Psyche (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-02-13T12:57Z, Psyche at 2024-02-15T20:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2024-02-13T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-02-13T14:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-7 (below minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240211_031300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240211_031300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240211_031300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240211_031300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240211_031300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240211_031300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240211_031300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M9.0 flare from AR13576 (S12W13) with ID 2024-02-10T22:56:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-02-10T23:07Z (see notifications 20240210-AL-005, 20240210-AL-006).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-11T04:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.13", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 02:49\nRadial velocity (km/s): 985\nLongitude (deg):0\nLatitude (deg):10\nHalf-angular width (deg):45\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-11T07:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T16:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.99, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.78, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.70", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/02/10 23:25Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 07:00Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 10:50Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:50\nPOS Midpoint: 08:55Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.88\nTravel Time: ~6.88 * 9:30 = 65:21\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-02-13T16:46Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-11T13:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.27", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 989.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1057.22\nAcceleration: -2.64877\nDuration in seconds: 177875.42\nDuration in days: 2.0587432\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.65 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 586.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/02/2024 Time: 01:00 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-11T13:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T14:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.25", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 989.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 582.627\nAcceleration: 0.566976\nDuration in seconds: 225995.78\nDuration in days: 2.6156919\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.57 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 710.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/02/2024 Time: 14:22 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-11T14:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.37", "predictionNote" : "Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T10:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%\nPredicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-11T16:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T06:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.55", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-02-11 02:49\n - Time at C2: 2024-02-10 23:36\n - Radial speed: 989.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N10E06\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 702.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-02-13 06:55 (i.e. predicted transit time: 55.32 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-12T06:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.80", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-02-11T13:30Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 810\nLongitude (deg): W010\nLatitude (deg): N18\nHalf-angular width (deg): 30\n\nNotes: Focused on bulk material to NW. Arrival forecast faster than enlil indicates due to poor background conditions after CME arrival on 11 Feb and additional influence of fast partial halo shock.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-12T10:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T13:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 18.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 18.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.07", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME velocity = 900 km/s\nBackground SW velocity = 400 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 12 deg" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T12:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.83333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7915.30", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T14:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7915.30", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-02-10T07:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T01:38Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide CME visible to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen south of AR 3576, centered around S30E05, which appears to deflect south. This eruption is best seen as dimming starting around 2024-02-10T06:96Z in SDO AIA 193. Following this eruption, post-eruptive arcades/rising loops are seen near AR 3576. This eruption is partially obscured by an eclipse in SDO AIA imagery from 2024-02-10T06:55Z-07:22Z. Opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171 and post-eruptive loops are best seen in SDO AIA 94. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-10T15:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T22:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.77", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-02-10T15:52:01Z\n## Message ID: 20240210-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-02-10T07:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~967 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 6/-37 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2024-02-15T08:15Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-02-12T18:43Z, and STEREO A at 2024-02-12T20:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-02-12T22:31Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240210_102700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240210_102700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240210_102700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240210_102700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240210_102700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240210_102700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240210_102700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-10T16:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T17:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.88, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.67", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/02/10 06:55Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 13:40Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 19:00Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction\nPOS Difference: 5:20\nPOS Midpoint: 16:20Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:25\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.2\nTravel Time: ~6.2 * 9:25 = 58:21\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-02-12T17:16Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-10T17:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.72", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-02-10T10:58Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 930\nLongitude (deg): 7W\nLatitude (deg): 42S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 39\n\nNotes: Quite a tricky fit, took some time.\nSpace weather advisor: Lawrence Howard MOSWOC" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-10T18:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T19:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.20", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29124/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=4.0, Lat.=-36.0, Speed=655.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2024-02-09T05:05Z\n2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=6.0, Lat.=-37.0, Speed=967.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2024-02-10T10:27Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-02-12T19:03Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =31.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-12T17:30Z\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-15T08:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-12T16:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-10T20:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T14:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.60", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-02-10 10:27\n - Time at C2: 2024-02-10 07:00\n - Radial speed: 967.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 39 deg\n - Eruption location: S37W06\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 696.10 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-02-12 14:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 55.87 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-11T02:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.27", "predictionNote" : "Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-12T19:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%\nPredicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-11T13:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T09:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.30", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 967.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1034.62\nAcceleration: -2.53513\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 181681.95\nDuration in days: 2.1028003\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.54 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 574.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/02/2024 Time: 09:28 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-11T13:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T22:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.28", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 967.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 570.681\nAcceleration: 0.631808\nDuration in seconds: 227433.55\nDuration in days: 2.6323328\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.63 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 714.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/02/2024 Time: 22:10 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T18:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.4, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.8, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7915.30", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T19:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7915.30", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-02-09T00:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-02-13T01:38Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Most clearly visible in a few early frames of SOHO LASCO C3. Overlaps with CME: 2024-02-08T23:48Z in the field of view of the coronagraph. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-02-08T23:23Z to 2024-02-09T02:23Z. The source is a filament eruption lifting off starting around 2024-02-10T20:00Z in SDO AIA 304, centered around S35W05. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-10T17:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.68", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-02-10T17:57:52Z\n## Message ID: 20240210-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-02-09T00:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~655 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 4/-36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-02-12T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-02-12T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-10T18:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T19:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.20", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29124/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=4.0, Lat.=-36.0, Speed=655.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2024-02-09T05:05Z\n2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=6.0, Lat.=-37.0, Speed=967.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2024-02-10T10:27Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-02-12T19:03Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =31.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-12T17:30Z\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-15T08:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-12T16:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240209_050800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T16:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7915.30", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-12T16:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7915.30", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-02-06T13:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-02-06T13:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-02-10T08:24Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME visible to the north in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source eruption is seen as a filament centered around N45E05 lifting off in SDO AIA 304 around 2024-02-06T09:33Z. Dimming can also be seen in SDO AIA 193 and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. | CME arrival note: Brief increases in B_total, temperature, and solar wind speed. Possible flux rope signatures are present in magnetic field parameters following arrival start time. Density increases prior to the arrival.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-06T19:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-10T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.52", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29017/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-02-06T13:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=1.0, Lat.=45.0, Speed=479.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2024-02-06T21:17Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-02-10T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-10T06:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-08T15:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-10T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.92", "predictionNote" : "Message id=\"435\", Event id=\"385\" \n\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40208\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Feb 2024, 1245UT\n\n...\n\nCoronal mass ejections: The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the\nlarge filament eruption in the northern hemisphere on Feb 6th was\nremodelled. A minor impact from it could be expected at Earth on Feb 10th\nand Feb 11th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the\navailable coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.\n\nThe above forecast supersedes the one below:\n\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40207\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Feb 2024, 1258UT\n...\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A fast full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was\nobserved in the LASCO/C2 imagery starting after 12:00 UTC on Feb 6th. The\nCME has no clear on-disc signatures and is deemed to be back-sided. No\nimpact on Earth is expected. A large filament eruption in the northern\nhemisphere resulted in a northward CME launched at around the same time as\nthe back-sided halo CME. The bulk of this filament-related CME is heading\nnorth and out of the Sun-Earth line. Yet, due to it’s wide spread and\ncentral on-disc location a possible glancing blow could impact Earth late\nUTC on Feb 8th or early on Feb 9th." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-10T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7980.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-10T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7980.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-02-06T02:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-02-06T02:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-02-09T21:40Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Source of this partial halo CME is an M2.2 class flare from AR 3575 (S34W65) peaked at 2024-02-06T02:28Z and followed by an M4.2 class flare. The flare was associated with a large eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304/171/131 and STEREO EUVI 195 starting at 2024-02-06T02:13Z (ejecta, EUV wave, post-eruptive arcades and circular dimming around them and rising). | Arrival note: Amplification in magnetic field components, with gradual enhancement starting around 2024-02-09T17:30Z, and shock observed starting at 2024-02-09T21:40, with B_total increasing from 7nT to approx. 9.37 nT. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from approx. 387 km/s to approx. 500 km/s and increases in density and temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-06T13:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-09T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.85", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29004/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-02-06T02:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=48.0, Lat.=-45.0, Speed=857.0, HalfAngle=52.0, Time21.5=2024-02-06T06:32Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-02-09T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-08T06:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-09T00:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-06T15:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-08T20:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.41, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.45, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "78.18", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/02/06 03:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 08:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction\nPOS Difference: 5:40\nPOS Midpoint: 10:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:35\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.63\nTravel Time: ~8.63 * 7:35 = 65:27\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-02-08T20:42Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-09T02:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7991.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-09T02:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7991.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-02-01T08:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-02-04T02:35Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[PRELIMINARY] Partial halo CME to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source centered around N20E05. A C3.0 flare peaked at 2024-02-01T07:43Z, accompanied by dimming and post-eruptive arcades in STEREO A EUV 195 and SDO AIA 193, but eruption is partially obscured by an eclipse in SDO From 2024-02-01T06:42Z to 2024-02-01T07:51Z. Filamentary material seen lifting off in GOES SUVI 304, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in SDO AIA 94. Possible arrival signature is unclear. The complex signature is characterized by gradual increases in Btotal (to 11nT) and solar wind speed (to 500 km/s), as well as rapid fluctuations of magnetic field components indicative of a high speed stream. It is possible that this signature includes a CME arrival, as it also encompasses a drop in temperature and density over 2024-02-05. The signature will be revisited once Level 1 solar wind data is available.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-01T11:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-04T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.28", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Feb 02 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels. The strongest event of the period was\na C3 flare, centered near N21E02, which peaked at 01/0743 UTC. A\nsubsequent CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery after 01/0748\nUTC. Analysis and modeling of the event showed most of the ejecta headed\nnorthward but potential for the periphery of the CME to influence Earth\nlater on 04 Feb and into 05 Feb.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.Forecast...\nAt or near nominal solar wind parameters are anticipated over 02-03 Feb.\nLate on 04 Feb, there is potential for interaction with the periphery of\na CME that left the Sun on 01 Feb.\n\n----------------\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2024 Feb 02 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 02-Feb 04 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 02-Feb 04 2024\n\n Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb 04\n00-03UT 0.67 1.67 2.00 \n03-06UT 0.33 1.33 2.00 \n06-09UT 1.33 1.33 2.33 \n09-12UT 1.33 1.33 1.67 \n12-15UT 0.67 1.33 2.00 \n15-18UT 1.00 1.33 3.33 \n18-21UT 1.00 1.67 4.00 \n21-00UT 1.67 1.67 4.33 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No\nsignificant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-01T13:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-03T15:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.62", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28927/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=27.0, Speed=920.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-02-01T11:48Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-02-03T15:41Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =20.6 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.4\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-05T03:39Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-03T10:25Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-03T16:01Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-01T14:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-04T02:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.12", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-02-01T14:28:27Z\n## Message ID: 20240201-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-02-01T08:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~780 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -12/28 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2024-02-05T18:11Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-02-03T18:39Z, and STEREO A at 2024-02-04T03:59Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-02-04T02:16Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_121800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_121800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_121800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_121800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_121800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_121800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_121800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001) is associated with C3.0 flare with ID 2024-02-01T06:36:00-FLR-001 from approximately N20E05 which peaked at 2024-02-01T07:43Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-01T16:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-03T21:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.31, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.05, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.85", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/02/01 07:50Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 11:10Z; 15Rsun; NNE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 12:50Z; 15Rsun; SSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:40\nPOS Midpoint: 12:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:10\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~14.89\nTravel Time: ~14.89 * 4:10 = 62:02\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-02-03T21:52Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 2 Hours\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5\n\n * Preliminary Forecast" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-01T17:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-03T21:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.47", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-02-01 12:18\n - Time at C2: 2024-02-01 08:00\n - Radial speed: 780.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 35 deg\n - Eruption location: N28E12\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 640.00 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-02-03 21:07 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.12 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-02T08:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-03T20:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.98", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 780.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 842.576\nAcceleration: -1.61647\nDuration in seconds: 219345.72\nDuration in days: 2.5387237\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.62 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 488.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 03/02/2024 Time: 20:55 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-02T08:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-04T02:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.95", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 780.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 469.140\nAcceleration: 1.15234\nDuration in seconds: 240198.89\nDuration in days: 2.7800797\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.15 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 745.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 04/02/2024 Time: 02:43 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-02T09:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-03T14:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 13.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.35", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): -8.5\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio_ 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35\ninitial CME speed: 850.0\ninitial height: 21.5 R_Sun\ninitial time: 2024-02-01T12:03Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km\nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 100k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-02T12:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-04T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.77", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40202\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Feb 2024, 1238UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 02 Feb 2024 10CM FLUX: 144 / AP: 001 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 03 Feb 2024 10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 007 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 04 Feb 2024 10CM FLUX: 149 / AP: 021\n\nCoronal mass ejections: The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that was reported on February 01, associated with a C3.1 flare, seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 07:48 UTC February 01. This eruption was predominantly directed to the north-east but is determined to have an Earth directed component, which is expected to impact Earth early on February 04. No new Earth directed CMEs have been detected." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-02-02T16:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-04T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.08", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-04T00:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8130.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-02-04T00:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8130.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-01-29T04:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-02-01T05:18Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M6.8 class flare from AR 13559, best observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with subsequent field line movement, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades following the flare visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Possible arrival/glancing blow signature of arrival of this CME at L1: enhancement in magnetic field components with an increase in B_total from 3.6 nT to over 7 nT, reaching a maximum near 8 nT. Rotation of all three magnetic field components. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 390 km/s to 440 km/s and increases in temperature and density (to ~5nT) were also observed.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-29T14:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-31T06:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.65", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Mars, Psyche, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-01-29T14:39:52Z\n## Message ID: 20240129-AL-009\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-01-29T04:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1278 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 58/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Mars (glancing blow), and Psyche (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2024-02-03T05:36Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-01-30T12:24Z, STEREO A at 2024-01-31T01:34Z, Mars at 2024-02-02T11:00Z, and Psyche at 2024-02-02T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-01-31T06:17Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.8 flare with ID 2024-01-29T03:54:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13559 (N25W70) which peaked at 2024-01-29T04:38Z (see notifications 20240129-AL-001 and 20240129-AL-003), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-01-29T05:11:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240129-AL-002 and 20240129-AL-004), modeled SEP prediction from REleASE:ACE/EPAM 15.8-39.8 MeV with ID 2024-01-29T05:50:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20240129-AL-005), SEP at SOHO: COSTEP 15.8-39.8 MeV with ID 2024-01-29T06:06:00-SEP-001, SEP at SOHO: COSTEP 28.2-50.1 MeV with ID 2024-01-29T06:08:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20240129-AL-007), and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-01-29T06:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240129-AL-006 and 20240129-AL-008).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-29T14:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-31T09:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.57, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.45", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/01/29 04:25Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 07:50Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 13:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 5:30\nPOS Midpoint: 10:35Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:10\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.66\nTravel Time: ~8.66 * 6:10 = 53:25\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-01-31T09:50Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-29T16:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-30T13:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.8, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.8, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-39.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.20", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): W25.0\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35\ninitial CME speed: 1888.0 km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_Sun\ninitial time: 2024-01-29T06:17Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km\nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 100k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-29T16:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-31T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.90", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-01-29T07:53Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1150\nLongitude (deg): 056W\nLatitude (deg): 00N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 42\n\nNotes: Modelled inner core of ejecta only, shock is partial halo and probably on Sun-Earth line, so some degree of impact likely. MOSWOC Enlil has an overly fast initialised solar wind, although the effect in this case will probably marginal, and any glance will probably remain within the UTC day of 31 January.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-29T17:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-31T01:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-27.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.30", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-01-29 06:54\n - Time at C2: 2024-01-29 04:38\n - Radial speed: 1481.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 54 deg\n - Eruption location: N09W50\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 850.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-01-31 01:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 45.23 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-29T18:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-31T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.72", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs Update (Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-01-29T18:35:26Z\n## Message ID: 20240129-AL-010\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240129-AL-009), now simulated with CME with ID 2024-01-29T02:00:00-CME-001.\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-01-29T02:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~936 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 65/12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-01-29T02:00:00-CME-001\n\n2: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-01-29T04:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1277 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 54 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 64/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined leading edge of CME with ID 2024-01-29T02:00:00-CME-001 and CME with ID 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 may impact OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-01-30T09:52Z (plus minus 7 hours). Additionally, the leading edge or flank of the CME with ID 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 may impact Lucy at 2024-02-02T23:43Z, STEREO A at 2024-01-31T04:02Z, and Mars (glancing blow) at 2024-02-02T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME with ID 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-01-31T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-01-29T02:00:00-CME-001 and 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nUpdated CME analysis and simulation results for CME with ID: 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 do not show an impact to Psyche, as previously indicated in a prior notification (see notification 20240129-AL-009).\n\nThe CME with ID 2024-01-29T02:00:00-CME-001 is associated with the M1.2 flare with ID 2024-01-29T01:29:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13559 (N30W61) which peaked at 2024-01-29T01:40Z.\n\nThe CME with ID 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 is associated with the M6.8 flare with ID 2024-01-29T03:54:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13559 (N25W70) which peaked at 2024-01-29T04:38Z (see notifications 20240129-AL-001 and 20240129-AL-003), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-01-29T05:11:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240129-AL-002 and 20240129-AL-004), modeled SEP prediction from REleASE: ACE/EPAM 15.8-39.8 MeV with ID 2024-01-29T05:50:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20240129-AL-005), SEP at SOHO: COSTEP 15.8-39.8 MeV with ID 2024-01-29T06:06:00-SEP-001, SEP at SOHO: COSTEP 28.2-50.1 MeV with ID 2024-01-29T06:08:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20240129-AL-007), and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-01-29T06:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240129-AL-006 and 20240129-AL-008).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-29T20:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-30T20:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-32.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.83", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28875/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=50.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=1481.0, HalfAngle=54.0, Time21.5=2024-01-29T06:54Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-01-30T20:55Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =20.9 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-30T12:18Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-30T18:05Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-30T02:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-31T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.12", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time ： 2024-01-31T00:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive ： 50%\nKp Range ： 3-5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-30T11:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-31T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.32", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2024 Jan 30 1240 UTC\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40130\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Jan 2024, 1239UT\nSIDC FORECAST\n\nCoronal mass ejections: No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery. The CME reported yesterday seen in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery at 04:24 UTC on January\n29 is expected to miss Earth but a shock could be expected at Earth early on January 31." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-31T00:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-31T14:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.65", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1278.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 739.554\nAcceleration: -0.354928\nDuration in seconds: 207579.73\nDuration in days: 2.4025432\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.35 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 665.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/01/2024 Time: 14:17 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-31T03:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 38.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.42857, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.42857, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8199.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-31T04:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8199.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-01-24T01:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-01-24T01:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-01-28T03:42Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Visible in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source may be an eruption from AR 3561 (approx. S17W45) best seen as brightening and moving field lines in SDO AIA 193. Candidate associated flare is an M2.6 class flare peaking at 2024-01-24T01:40Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. Opening field lines are also visible in SDO AIA 171. It is also observed in STEREO A EUV imagery. A wider shock appears to be visible in the coronagraph imagery ahead of the bulk of the CME. The start of the possible arrival signature for this CME is approximate. The signature is characterized by gradual increase in B total to 12nT, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components and a drop in temperature. A drop in density happens closer to 2024-01-24T12Z. Alternatively, this signature could be the late arrival (glancing blow) of 2024-01-23T17:36Z CME and/or a minor coronal hole high speed stream.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-24T15:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-28T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.48", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2024 Jan 24 1220 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images today 01:36 UTC. It is associated with an M2 flare that took place at solar S16W48 and has small chance of directly affecting Earth's environment. However, a glancing blow from this CME is to be expected in the first half of Jan 28.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-28T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8297.23", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-28T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8297.23", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-01-23T17:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-01-23T17:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-01-28T03:42Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME seen to the SW in all coronagraphs. Source is very likely an M4.3 class flare from AR 3561 (S17W39) which peaked at 2024-01-23T16:40Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as opening field lines and a small dimming region in SDO AIA 171/193/211, and some filament material erupting in SDO AIA 304. Potential CME arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching 12nT at 2024-01-28T09:34Z and by rotation of two magnetic field components. Closer to 10Z there is rotation of all three magnetic field components and a drop in density. However, this arrival signature is also characterised by a slow increase in solar wind speed from ~350 km/s to just under 490 km/s around 2024-01-29T03Z, accompanied by minor increase in temperature, possibly indicating an admixture of a brief coronal hole high speed stream. Alternative CME candidate could be 2024-01-24T01:36Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-24T14:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-27T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "85.60", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-01-24T14:06:06Z\n## Message ID: 20240124-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-01-23T17:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~562 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 40/-33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-01-23T17:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-01-27T06:38Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-01-25T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-01-27T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-01-23T17:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_234700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_234700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_234700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_234700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-01-23T17:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M4.3 flare with ID 2024-01-23T16:36:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-01-23T16:40Z from Active Region 13561 (S17W39).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-24T18:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-26T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : -191, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2024-01-26T17:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-42.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.58", "predictionNote" : "Notice = ADVISORY, Issued = 2024-01-25_17:00, Mins_Elaps = 29, PredictStart = 2024-01-26_09:00, PredictPeak = 2024-01-26_17:00, EL = 60, GX = G3, DST = -191, Pr = 3, Sr = NN, Velocity = 750, streamB_status = ME, issue_time_tag = 2024-01-25_17:29, CID = C040" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-26T20:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8297.23", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-26T20:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8297.23", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-01-22T10:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-01-22T10:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-01-25T05:35Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[PRELIMINARY] Wide CME with distinctive bright core (likely h-alpha emission) seen to the S/SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is associated with a large filament eruption stretching from ~S45E10 to ~S20W20, centered around S35W10. The source eruption is best seen in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2024-01-22T08:30Z. Associated dimming (SDO/AIA 193), brightening (SDO/AIA 304), and post-eruptive arcades (SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211) are visible. The filament appears to deflect southward as it erupts. Possible arrival signature: a change in the solar wind pattern, with B total sharply increasing from under 3 nT to over 6nT, followed by another jump to just above 10nT around 14Z. There is also rotation of two magnetic field components, that after 14Z potentially resembles signature of a glancing blow/arrival of a flux rope.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-22T17:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-25T13:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.68", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-01-22T17:54:51Z\n## Message ID: 20240122-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-01-22T10:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~746 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 16/-38 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-01-22T10:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A, Psyche (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-01-25T10:53Z, Psyche at 2024-01-28T00:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2024-01-25T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-01-25T13:59Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-01-22T10:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240122_152700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240122_152700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240122_152700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240122_152700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240122_152700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240122_152700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240122_152700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-22T18:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-25T01:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.02, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.75, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.37", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/01/22 10:45Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 17:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 00:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:40\nPOS Midpoint: 21:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.11\nTravel Time: ~6.11 * 10:15 = 62:36\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-01-25T01:21Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "sunRunner1D", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-22T19:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-24T23:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.33", "predictionNote" : "Using a recurrence approach to set the ambient upwind solar wind values. Ad hoc at the moment, but values numerically iterated on: \n\nV_amb: 336.0771\nn_amb: 4.024259\nBp_amb: 3.57386\nT_amb: 28368.85\n\nLikely values based on approximate CR-look-back: \n\nV_amb: 300 - 400\nn_amb: 2- 5\nBtot_amb: 4\nT_amb: 2-5E4" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-22T19:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-25T00:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.17", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-01-22 15:27\n - Time at C2: 2024-01-22 10:48\n - Radial speed: 746.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 42 deg\n - Eruption location: S38W16\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 629.80 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-01-25 00:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.18 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-23T16:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-25T17:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.08", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2024 Jan 23 1552 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 10:36 UTC. It is associated with a filament eruption close to the solar meridian and is likely to be geo-effective. It is estimated to arrive at the second half of 25 Jan.\n...\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-24T05:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-26T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.58", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-01-22T15:59Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 620\nLongitude (deg): 19W\nLatitude (deg): 35S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 39\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-25T09:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 53.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8367.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-25T07:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8367.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-01-21T00:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-01-21T00:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T16:01Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo CME seen to the E/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME overlaps partially with the faint CME seen to the E/SE starting at 2024-01-20T23:12Z. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption and associated flaring seen in AR13559. The filament sat along the lower boundary of this active region, stretching from ~N20E32 to N25E50 and is centered around N20E41. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of the CME seen at 2024-01-20T09:24Z and this CME beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-21T16:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-23T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.23", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Solar Orbiter, Psyche, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2024-01-21T16:47:59Z\n## Message ID: 20240121-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2024-01-21T00:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1057 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -41/4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2024-01-21T00:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter, Psyche (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2024-02-07T00:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-01-23T03:16Z, Psyche at 2024-01-25T01:00Z, and STEREO A at 2024-01-23T23:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-01-23T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-01-21T00:36:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240121_034900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240121_034900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240121_034900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240121_034900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240121_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240121_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240121_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240121_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240121_034900_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240121_034900_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240121_034900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2024-01-21T00:36:00-CME-001) is associated with C4.0 flare from AR13559 (N20E41) with ID 2024-01-21T00:03:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-01-21T00:27Z and possibly the C5.3 flare from AR13559 (N28E42) with ID 2024-01-21T00:35:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-01-21T00:41Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-21T17:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T12:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.95", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28673/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-18.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=978.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2024-01-20T12:49Z\n2024-01-21T00:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=4.0, Speed=1057.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2024-01-21T03:49Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-01-22T12:56Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =29.4 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.3\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-23T19:35Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-22T12:56Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-22T10:57Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-21T17:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-23T05:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.50", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-01-21 03:40\n - Time at C2: 2024-01-21 00:36\n - Radial speed: 1068.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: S03E33\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 726.40 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-01-23 05:59 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.40 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-21T18:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-23T22:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.72, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.76, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "30.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.65", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/01/21 00:30Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 06:20Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:10Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 8:50\nPOS Midpoint: 10:45Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.8\nTravel Time: ~6.8 * 10:15 = 69:41\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-01-23T22:11Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-21T22:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-23T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.85", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-01-21T03:57Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1012\nLongitude (deg): -4\nLatitude (deg): -37\nHalf-angular width (deg): 48\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-22T01:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-23T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.18", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-01-23T20:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 50%\nKp Range: 3-5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-23T11:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.8, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.4, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8428.92", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-23T16:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8428.92", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2024-01-20T09:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T16:01Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo CME seen to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk stretching from S15E00 to S15E35, with liftoff starting around 2024-01-20T08:27Z. This CME overlaps with another filament eruption on the NE limb which resulted in CME:2024-01-20T09:36Z. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of this CME and the CME seen at 2024-01-21T00:36Z beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-20T16:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T13:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.38", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28654/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-18.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=978.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2024-01-20T12:49Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-01-22T13:19Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =24.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.3\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-23T19:20Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-22T12:09Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-22T11:24Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-20T17:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.75", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Jan 21 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n\n...A complex filament eruption centered near S15E22 began at around 20/0848\nUTC, as seen in SDO 304 imagery. The subsequent CME, first visible in\nLASCO C2 imagery at 20/0912 UTC, appeared to have three fronts; to the\neast, southeast, and south-southwest. Early analysis suggests a portion\nof this CME will arrive late in the UTC day on 22 Jan. Further analysis\nis in progress.\n\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Jan 21 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n...A complex filament eruption centered near S15E22 began at around 20/0848\nUTC, as seen in SDO 304 imagery. The subsequent CME, first visible in\nLASCO C2 imagery at 20/0912 UTC, appeared to have three fronts; to the\neast, southeast, and south-southwest. Analysis and modeling of the event\nsuggested CME passage at Earth over 22-23 Jan.\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2024 Jan 22 0030 UTC\n\n.Forecast...\nPeriods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely late on\n22 Jan and early on 23 Jan due to the anticipated passage of a CME from\n20 Jan." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-20T17:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-23T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.62", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 20/1428Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 665\nLongitude (deg): 33E\nLatitude (deg): 7S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 57\n\nNotes: Mainly using LASCO due to limited STERO-A imagery\nSpace weather advisor: RSt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "sunRunner1D", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-20T18:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T05:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.20", "predictionNote" : "Using 978 km/s for initial speed of ejecta, but only generic values of ambient solar wind and other ICME properties are being used. This (like the previous prediction) is to test the forecast pipeline. It is likely that the ToA is biased towards an earlier time." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-20T19:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T18:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.54, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.61, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.88", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2024/01/20 09:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 15:30Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 19:40Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:10\nPOS Midpoint: 17:35Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:35\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.68\nTravel Time: ~6.68 * 8:35 = 57:22\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-22T18:22Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-20T19:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T16:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.85", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-01-20 12:49\n - Time at C2: 2024-01-20 09:24\n - Radial speed: 978.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 47 deg\n - Eruption location: S22E18\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 699.40 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2024-01-22 16:59 (i.e. predicted transit time: 55.58 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-21T00:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.43", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-01-20T12:47Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 944\nLongitude (deg): 020E\nLatitude (deg): 15S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 40\n\nNotes: SE centre filament eruption, polluted in otherwise clear Lasco C3 and STEREO COR2 coronagraph imagery by near-concurrent NE prominence. Taking SE-ward lobe of amalgamated CME only, get 1AU crossing time of 22/1500UTC. MOSWOC Enlil is currently suggesting an erroneously fast 500km/s fast wind between now and this CME arrival, hence minor delay to nearer centre of ensemble at 22/1800UTC, although change is indicative of a slower transit rather than rigorously calculated. CME may yet interact with as yet unmodelled prominence and will be volatile. G2 considered most likely.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-21T12:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T11:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.85", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 978.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1045.92\nAcceleration: -2.59180\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 179066.91\nDuration in days: 2.0725337\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.59 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 581.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 22/01/2024 Time: 11:08 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-21T12:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-23T00:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.82", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 978.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 576.654\nAcceleration: 0.599487\nDuration in seconds: 226145.31\nDuration in days: 2.6174225\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.60 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 712.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/01/2024 Time: 00:13 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-21T17:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T12:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.95", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28673/1\nModel Inputs:\n2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-18.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=978.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2024-01-20T12:49Z\n2024-01-21T00:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=4.0, Speed=1057.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2024-01-21T03:49Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-01-22T12:56Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =29.4 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.3\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-23T19:35Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-22T12:56Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-22T10:57Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124901_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-21T17:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-23T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.28", "predictionNote" : "This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2024-01-23T06:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 75\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40121\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Jan 2024, 1252UT\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed directed to the south-east in SOHO/LASCO C2 chronograph images on January 20, at 09:24 UTC. The projected angular width is 151 degrees, and the projected speed is 631 km/s as estimated by SIDC/CACTUS tool. The source of this CME is a filament eruption. Due to the location to the filament, near the central meridian, the CME is heading towards Earth and is expected to impact the solar wind condition near Earth in 1-2 days from now, with a possible also some geomagnetic impact. \n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 chronograph images on January 20, at 09:24 UTC with the main direction towards South-East. SIDC/CACTUS tools provide an estimated projected angular width of 151 degrees, and a projected speed of 631 km/s. The source of this CME is a filament eruption located near the central meridian. Due to its location, the CME is expected head-in towards Earth and impact the solar wind condition near Earth on January 22-23, with also a possible geomagnetic impact." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-21T20:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T16:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.48", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-01-20T12:34Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 955 \nLongitude (deg): -12\nLatitude (deg): -22\nHalf-angular width (deg): 50\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-22T01:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.40", "predictionNote" : "Input CME parameters:\nDirection: S04E21\nWidth: 116\nVelocity: 916km/s\n\npredicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-01-22T18:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 80%\nKp range: 4-6" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-22T10:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T12:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 13.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "5.12", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters: \nApex direction (deg): W-18\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35\n\ninitial CME speed: 978.0 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2024-01-20T12:49Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 100k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T16:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 77.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.44444, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.44444, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8428.92", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-22T16:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8428.92", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-12-31T22:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-12-31T22:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-01-03T14:19Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Fast partial halo CME with protruding narrower nose, seen in SOHO C2/C3 coronagraphs (fully covered by a data gap in STEREO A beacon); associated with X5 class flare from AR13536 near East limb. Coronal signatures include narrow ejecta seen in GOES SUVI 304 starting 2023-12-31T21:44Z and a wide EUV wave in AIA 193. Possible arrival signature is characterized by sharp jumping in B tot from 5nT to just under 10nT and increases in solar wind speed (from 425 km/s to ~490 km/s), density and temperature. DSCOVR is corroborated by ACE (despite large data gaps). The initial shock is followed after 2024-01-03T16:30Z by a smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components, indicating a flux rope. An hour later there is a similar arrival signature at STEREO A. Tentatively associating this arrival with 2023-12-31T22:00Z CME. Even though this might alternatively be 2023-12-30T09:36Z CME arriving, 2023-12-31T22:00Z CME is a likelier candidate bc of high speed at L1.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-01T15:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-02T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.82", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28430/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-12-31T22:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-60.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=2184.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-12-31T23:23Z\n\nThis analysis is very uncertain since the absence of STEREO data, CME complex shape seemingly not corresponding to the available coronal signatures make it hard to interpret it with certainty.\n\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-01-02T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-02T07:00Z\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-03T12:30Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-02T23:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231231_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-01T16:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-02T18:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.81, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.62, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.13", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/12/31 21:50Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 00:00Z; Rsun; Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 06:00Z; Rsun; Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:00\nPOS Midpoint: 03:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:10\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.59\nTravel Time: ~8.59 * 5:10 = 44:24\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-01-02T18:14Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 0.75 hours\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-01T23:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-02T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.98", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-01-01T00:25Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1500\nLongitude (deg): E053\nLatitude (deg): S03\nHalf-angular width (deg): 59\n\nNotes: Complex (wide) analysis with focus slightly more on the shock, which is most likely to be the composition of any arrival, rather than ejecta. Side-swipe possible, and considered just slightly more likely than no arrival. \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk/Luca/Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-02T10:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-02T02:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.72", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIGRAM 40101\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Jan 2024, 1233UT\n\nCoronal mass ejections: ...A second CME was detected at 22:00 UTC on December 31, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with a X5.0-flare, with peak time 21:55 UTC on December 31. A glancing blow from both these CMEs may be possible. Further analysis is ongoing.\n\n\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40102\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jan 2024, 1240UT\n\nCoronal mass ejections: No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)s, have been observed in the last 24 hours. Further analysis of the two CMEs seen in LASCO C2 data one ... seen at 22:00 UTC on December 31, with an estimated speed of around 1600 km/s shows a possible glancing blow early on January 02." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-02T12:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8886.62", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-02T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8886.62", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-12-31T10:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-12-31T10:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2024-01-03T04:50Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery visible for about three frames in STEREO A COR2 imagery prior to a data gap starting at 2023-12-31T10:53Z, after which the CME is out of the field of view. The source is a large filament eruption spanning N35W30 to N20W65 which begins to lift off around 2023-12-30T09:40Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 12:30Z in SDO AIA 171 and 193 as well. Most of the eruptive material appears to originate from the more western side of the filament. A possible arrival signature is characterized by an amplication of magnetic field with Btotal increasing from 7nT at 2024-01-03T04:50Z to ~12nT, an increase in solar wind speed from 415 to ~480 km/s, as well as a significant jump in density to over 18 pp/cm^3 and and increase in temperature are also observed. There is a likely arrival of the same CME at STEREO A hours earlier, indicating a westerly event.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-02T10:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-03T20:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.53", "predictionNote" : "Message id=\"422\"\n\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40101\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Jan 2024, 1233UT\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at\n09:48 UTC on December 31, in LASCO C2 data. This CME is associated with a filament eruption, observed at 09:38 UTC on December 31, in SDO/AIA 304 and\n193 in the north-west quadrant of the visible solar disk... Further analysis is ongoing.\n\n\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40102\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jan 2024, 1240UT\n\nCoronal mass ejections: No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)s, have been observed in the last 24 hours. Further analysis of the two CMEs seen in LASCO C2 data one at 09:48 UTC on December 31, with an estimated speed of around 500 km/s shows a possible glancing blow late on January 03." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2024-01-02T15:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-03T11:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.92, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.44, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.57", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/12/31 10:45Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 16:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 21:10Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:40\nPOS Midpoint: 18:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:05\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.94\nTravel Time: ~8.94 * 8:05 = 72:16\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2024-01-03T11:01Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-03T15:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8896.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2024-01-03T15:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-8896.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-12-25T09:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-12-25T09:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-12-29T11:34Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Very faint partial halo only seen in SOHO LASCO C2 and COR2A difference imagery (not seen in C3), with the likely source a sigmoid-shaped filament eruption centered around (N20E10) extending from N25E25 in the NE to AR 3530 (S08W10). The filament is seen erupting after 2023-12-25T07:20Z in SDO AIA 193 (as dimming and post-eruptive arcades) and 304 (as arcade footpoint brightening). Filament not seen in H-Alpha (but seen in AIA 211). Faint halo with slight east bias. Arrival Signature: Characterized by amplification in magnetic field components, with B_total reaching a maximum of 11nT at 2023-12-29T21:42Z. Accompanied by a minor increase in speed from ~360 km/s to ~390 km/s. Density data is speculative as there are discrepancies between DSCOVR and ACE, as well as data gaps. Prior to the arrival, there were several bumps in density around 2023-12-28T22:45Z, 2023-12-29T02:50Z, and 2023-12-29T08:45Z, possibly due to the preceding CME arrival from 2023-12-27T08:26Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-25T18:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-29T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "89.52", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28335/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-12-25T09:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=331.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2023-12-25T19:23Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-12-29T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231225_192300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-25T18:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-28T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "88.58", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-12-25T14:01Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 538\nLongitude (deg): 001E\nLatitude (deg): 02S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 28\n\nNotes: 25/1617Z: Faint full halo with slight east bias, used C2 and COR2 for fitting. Low confidence in cone angle and therefore speed, but high for Earth-bound trajectory given emission location. Ribbon flares and faint filament arcade left as footprint in its wake. A lot of CMEs in MOSWOC Enlil make this a volatile forecast. 25/1859Z: Edited to increase Kp after assessing risk of arriving as united front around middle of 28 Dec UTC day.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-28T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9009.37", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-28T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9009.37", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-12-24T16:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-12-24T16:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-12-27T08:26Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely a dimming region observed in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193 imagery starting around 2023-12-24T15:00Z from ~S25W45. Arrival signature: Likely but not characteristic CME arrival/sheath with magnetic field enhancement to just below 8nT, followed at ~2023-12-27T20Z by a likely start of a flux rope showing smooth rotation of magnetic field components and possibly indicating a glancing blow from a CME since components run in parallel. The arrival time might be even earlier since there is a data gap in DSCOVR from 2023-12-27T07:16Z to 08:26Z (also overlapping by an even larger gap in ACE data). This arrival could alternatively be attributed to the arrival of 2023-12-24T13:25Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-24T23:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-27T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.23", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Dec 25 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached moderate levels with two M-class flares\n(R1/Minor) events observed. The first was an M2.6/1f at 24/1649 UTC from\nRegion 3529 (S21W31, Eho/beta) and the second was an M1.1 at 24/1951 UTC\nfrom a region just beyond the SE limb near S22. Region 3530 (N08W12,\nDai/beta) exhibited minor growth and the remaining regions were stable\nor in decay.\n\nTwo CMEs were analyzed to have likely Earth-directed components. The\nfirst CME, observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 24/1224 UTC, was associated\nwith a filament eruption near N48W35 at 24/0920 UTC. The second CME, \nobserved in C2 data at 24/1548 UTC, was associated with a filament\neruption near S20W48 at 24/1438 UTC. Model output suggests both CMEs\nresult in glancing blows late on 27 Dec/early on 28 Dec.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for further M-class\n(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares on 25-27 Dec.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind conditions are expected to be at near-background levels over\n25-26 Dec. The solar wind environment is likely to become disturbed late\non 27 Dec-early 28 Dec due to the anticipated arrival of a pair of CMEs\nfrom 24 Dec.\n\nGeospace\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over 25-26 Dec. A\npair of CMEs from 24 Dec are anticipated to arrive late on 27 Dec,\ncausing periods of active conditions on 27-28 Dec.\n\n-------------------------\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2023 Dec 26 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 26-Dec 28 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 26-Dec 28 2023\n\n Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec 28\n00-03UT 1.67 1.67 4.00 \n03-06UT 2.00 2.00 3.67 \n06-09UT 1.67 1.67 3.00 \n09-12UT 1.00 1.33 3.00 \n12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.67 \n15-18UT 0.67 2.00 2.00 \n18-21UT 1.67 3.67 2.00 \n21-00UT 1.67 3.67 2.67 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No\nsignificant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-25T14:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-28T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.98", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-12-24T22:24Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 572\nLongitude (deg): 016W\nLatitude (deg): 30S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 24 \n\nNotes: High coronal dimming, not visible on H-alpha, but filament channel-like footprint left in wake of event. Not associated directly with M-class from AR3529 either side of it in time, but perhaps triggered indirectly. Shows volatility in arrival time in MOSWOC Enlil, again probably due to sheer number of CMEs nearby.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence on behalf of Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-25T17:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-27T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.82", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 31225\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Dec 2023, 1441UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 25 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 182 / AP: 003 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 26 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 004 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 27 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 178 / AP: 013\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was reported by the CACTUS automated detection tool with an estimated launch time around\n14:00 UTC on Dec 24th. This is an erroneous automated detection, which consists of two separate CMEs, related to filament eruptions in the north- west and the south-east quadrant. The first CME lift off was visible in the LASCO C2 coronagraph images before UTC noon on Dec 24th and the second CME one was launched around 15:48 UTC on Dec 24th. Both CMEs have clear on-disc signatures and are accompanied by a coronal dimming. An initial analysis suggests a possible combined glancing blow arrival from these CMEs on Dec 27th." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-27T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 42.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9060.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-27T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 42.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9060.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-12-24T13:25:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-12-24T13:25Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-12-27T08:26Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the north in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a large filament eruption spanning N45W20 to N35W55 which begins to lift-off, appearing to deflect northward, around 2023-12-24T12:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post-eruptive brightening is also visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery starting around 13:30Z. Arrival signature: Likely but not characteristic CME arrival/sheath with magnetic field enhancement to just below 8nT, followed at ~2023-12-27T20Z by a likely start of a flux rope showing smooth rotation of magnetic field components and possibly indicating a glancing blow from a CME since components run in parallel. The arrival time might be even earlier since there is a data gap in DSCOVR from 2023-12-27T07:16Z to 08:26Z (also overlapping by an even larger gap in ACE data). This arrival could alternatively be attributed to the arrival of 2023-12-24T16:12Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-24T17:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-28T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.03", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-12-24T17:24:51Z\n## Message ID: 20231224-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-12-24T13:25Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~790 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 3/51 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-12-24T13:25:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME may reach Solar Orbiter at 2023-12-27T13:00Z and STEREO A at 2023-12-28T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-12-28T01:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-12-24T13:25:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231224_175600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231224_175600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231224_175600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231224_175600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231224_175600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231224_175600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231224_175600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-24T23:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-27T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.23", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Dec 25 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached moderate levels with two M-class flares\n(R1/Minor) events observed. The first was an M2.6/1f at 24/1649 UTC from\nRegion 3529 (S21W31, Eho/beta) and the second was an M1.1 at 24/1951 UTC\nfrom a region just beyond the SE limb near S22. Region 3530 (N08W12,\nDai/beta) exhibited minor growth and the remaining regions were stable\nor in decay.\n\nTwo CMEs were analyzed to have likely Earth-directed components. The\nfirst CME, observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 24/1224 UTC, was associated\nwith a filament eruption near N48W35 at 24/0920 UTC. The second CME, \nobserved in C2 data at 24/1548 UTC, was associated with a filament\neruption near S20W48 at 24/1438 UTC. Model output suggests both CMEs\nresult in glancing blows late on 27 Dec/early on 28 Dec.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for further M-class\n(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares on 25-27 Dec.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind conditions are expected to be at near-background levels over\n25-26 Dec. The solar wind environment is likely to become disturbed late\non 27 Dec-early 28 Dec due to the anticipated arrival of a pair of CMEs\nfrom 24 Dec.\n\nGeospace\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over 25-26 Dec. A\npair of CMEs from 24 Dec are anticipated to arrive late on 27 Dec,\ncausing periods of active conditions on 27-28 Dec.\n\n-------------------------\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2023 Dec 26 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 26-Dec 28 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 26-Dec 28 2023\n\n Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec 28\n00-03UT 1.67 1.67 4.00 \n03-06UT 2.00 2.00 3.67 \n06-09UT 1.67 1.67 3.00 \n09-12UT 1.00 1.33 3.00 \n12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.67 \n15-18UT 0.67 2.00 2.00 \n18-21UT 1.67 3.67 2.00 \n21-00UT 1.67 3.67 2.67 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No\nsignificant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-25T14:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-27T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.08", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-12-24T17:32Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 850\nLongitude (deg): 002W\nLatitude (deg): 39N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 32\n\nNotes: Based on at least three fits from two forecasters, erred towards ecliptic-intersecting solution within reason. Very volatile arrival time in model-space, probably because of extreme sensitivity to number of neighbouring CMEs. Deterministic solution only a very slight glance, but sig number of ensemble have varyinh degrees of 'hit'.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence and Kirk Waite." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-25T17:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-27T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.82", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 31225\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Dec 2023, 1441UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 25 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 182 / AP: 003 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 26 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 004 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 27 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 178 / AP: 013\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was reported by the CACTUS automated detection tool with an estimated launch time around\n14:00 UTC on Dec 24th. This is an erroneous automated detection, which consists of two separate CMEs, related to filament eruptions in the north- west and the south-east quadrant. The first CME lift off was visible in the LASCO C2 coronagraph images before UTC noon on Dec 24th and the second CME one was launched around 15:48 UTC on Dec 24th. Both CMEs have clear on-disc signatures and are accompanied by a coronal dimming. An initial analysis suggests a possible combined glancing blow arrival from these CMEs on Dec 27th." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-27T16:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 42.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9060.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-27T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 42.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9060.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-12-16T01:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-12-16T01:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-12-20T00:26Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Weak signatures detected in solar wind at L1 indicate possible arrival. | Very faint CME seen in the south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It is not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2 due to the faintness. The leading edge is primarily seen towards the S/SW, and is best seen in SOHO LASCO C2. The potential source is a filament eruption starting around 2023-12-15T20:48Z in SDO AIA 304 that is also visible as dimming in SDO AIA and brightening loops in SDO AIA 94 around 2023-12-15T21:05Z. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-17T01:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-20T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.05", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-12-16T09:07Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 341\nLongitude (deg): 000W\nLatitude (deg): 18S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 20\n\nNotes: Possible false attribution in coronagraphs to south-central disappearing filament seen in H-Alpha around 15/2100Z (e.g. Cerro Tololo). May instead have been reabsorbed. This ejecta is very faint western edge of CME in Lasco C2, and even fainter emission on STEREO COR2. If attribution correct, felt likely to have Earth-directed component, although probably muted effects given slow transit time.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-17T16:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-20T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.13", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28223/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-12-16T01:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=363.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2023-12-16T09:51Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-12-20T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-18T06:00Z\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-21T04:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-19T22:00Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-19T18:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "HUXt", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-19T11:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-20T15:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 46.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.35", "predictionNote" : "Ambient background file: wsa_gong_2023121906.fits\n Cone CME file: cone_cme_2023121906.in\n Cone CME parameters:\n t_launch=2023-12-14T21:11, v=974 km / s, longitude=44 deg, latitude=-17 deg, width=100 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad\n t_launch=2023-12-15T01:21, v=308 km / s, longitude=26 deg, latitude=13 deg, width=58 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad\n t_launch=2023-12-15T11:04, v=1200 km / s, longitude=60 deg, latitude=-23 deg, width=74 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad\n t_launch=2023-12-15T16:52, v=400 km / s, longitude=275 deg, latitude= 2 deg, width=74 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad\n t_launch=2023-12-16T09:06, v=341 km / s, longitude= 0 deg, latitude=-20 deg, width=40 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad\n t_launch=2023-12-16T11:14, v=634 km / s, longitude=295 deg, latitude=-6 deg, width=76 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad\n t_launch=2023-12-17T01:57, v=346 km / s, longitude=80 deg, latitude=-10 deg, width=38 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad\n t_launch=2023-12-17T10:18, v=550 km / s, longitude=235 deg, latitude= 5 deg, width=46 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad\n t_launch=2023-12-18T06:27, v=289 km / s, longitude=310 deg, latitude=28 deg, width=64 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad\n t_launch=2023-12-18T22:01, v=367 km / s, longitude=92 deg, latitude=-1 deg, width=50 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad\n Number of ambient ensemble members: 100\n Number of CME ensemble members: 500" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-20T06:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 53.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9236.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-20T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 53.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9236.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-12-14T17:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-12-17T07:32Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright nearly full halo CME with the bulk portion to the west in STEREO A COR2 imagery. Current SOHO data gap. The source is a X2.8 class flare from AR13514 (N05W54) peaking at 2023-12-14T17:02Z. The source is visible across all SDO/AIA wavelengths with clear dimming signatures to the SE of the eruption in SDO/AIA 193/171/211. Corresponding brightening seen in SDO/AIA 304. An EUV wave is clearly seen in SDO/AIA 193, 211, and GOES SUVI 284 traveling to the SE towards disk center and along the western limb. The EUV wave appears to correspond with a large shock in the coronagraph imagery. Post-eruptive arcades are visible around 2023-12-14T19:00Z in SDO/AIA 171.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-14T19:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-16T17:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.40", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1026.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1095.22\nAcceleration: -2.84254\nDuration in seconds: 171100.65\nDuration in days: 1.9803315\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.84 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 608.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/12/2023 Time: 17:09 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-14T19:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-17T07:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.38", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1026.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 602.718\nAcceleration: 0.456234\nDuration in seconds: 223048.45\nDuration in days: 2.5815793\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.46 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 704.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/12/2023 Time: 07:35 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-14T20:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-16T22:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.53", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-14 20:34\n - Time at C2: 2023-12-14 17:38\n - Radial speed: 1081.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 49 deg\n - Eruption location: S04W33\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 730.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-12-16 22:44 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.10 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-14T20:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-17T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.12", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Psyche, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-12-14T20:25:45Z\n## Message ID: 20231214-AL-007\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-12-14T17:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1026 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 54/-26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, and Psyche (glancing blow). The leading edge the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-12-15T20:40Z, STEREO A at 2023-12-17T09:06Z, and the flank of the CME will reach Psyche at 2023-12-18T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-12-17T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231214_205900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231214_205900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231214_205900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231214_205900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231214_205900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231214_205900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231214_205900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001) is associated with X2.8 flare from AR13514 (N05W54) with ID 2023-12-14T16:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-12-14T17:02Z (see notifications 20231214-AL-005, 20231214-AL-006).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "HUXt", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-14T23:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-17T13:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.8, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.8, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.03", "predictionNote" : "Internal reference:20231214T230400/log_forecastdate_2023_12_14T23_04_06.log\nInput files: \ncone_cme_2023121418.in\nwsa_gong_2023121418.fits\nCME Initial conditions:\nv = 974 km/s\nlongitude = 44 deg\nlatitude = -17 deg\nwidth = 100 deg" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-15T03:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-16T20:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.61, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.48, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.55", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/12/14 17:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 23:00Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 03:40Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:40\nPOS Midpoint: 01:20Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.43\nTravel Time: ~6.43 * 8:00 = 51:28\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-12-16T20:48Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-15T04:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-17T16:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.92, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.43, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.53", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/12/14 17:20Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 23:00Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 03:40Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:40\nPOS Midpoint: 01:20Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:00\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.94\nTravel Time: ~8.94 * 8:00 = 71:31\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-12-17T16:51Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-15T06:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-16T18:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.95", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a4b1\nEjecta settings d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrzqs\ncormode: single\n\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-12-15T05:57:08Z\n## Message ID: 20231215-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001 (see notification 20231214-AL-007), now simulated with CMEs 2023-12-13T15:05:00-CME-001, 2023-12-14T07:00:00-CME-001, 2023-12-14T08:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20231214-AL-008). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-12-15T09:47Z, Psyche at 2023-12-17T08:42Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-12-16T23:48Z, and STEREO A at 2023-12-16T16:59Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-12-16T18:51Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2023-12-13T15:05Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~616 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 59/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-12-13T15:05:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2023-12-14T07:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~684 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 83/-30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-12-14T07:00:00-CME-001\n\n\n3: Start time of the event: 2023-12-14T08:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~517 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 13 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 50/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-12-14T08:36:00-CME-001\n\n\n4: Start time of the event: 2023-12-14T17:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1081 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 33/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-12-13T15:05:00-CME-001, 2023-12-14T07:00:00-CME-001, 2023-12-14T08:36:00-CME-001, 2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-12-14T08:36:00-CME-001) is associated with an M5.8 flare from AR 3514 (N05W50) with ID 2023-12-14T07:11:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-12-14T07:44Z (see notifications 20231214-AL-002, 20231214-AL-003).\n\nThis CME event (2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001) is associated with an X2.8 flare from AR 3514 (N05W54) with ID 2023-12-14T16:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-12-14T17:02Z (see notifications 20231214-AL-005, 20231214-AL-006).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-15T10:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-17T02:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.72", "predictionNote" : "Event id=\"370\"\nexpected arrival time: 2023-12-17T02:03:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 4\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 50\n\nFrom SIDC Ursigram Issued: 2023 Dec 15 1232 UTC:\n\nA halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 17:24 UTC on December 14. The CME is associated with a X2.8 flare, originating from NOAA AR 3514, along with a Type II and Type IV radio burst. The CME is directed primarily to the West from the Earth perspective. Due to the location of CME origin, a glancing blow to the Earth's environment can be\npossible late on December 16 – early on December 17.\n\nAlso:\nA faint CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around\n07:39 UTC on December 14, directed towards the North-West from Earth\nperspective. The coronal mass ejection is likely associated to M5.8 flare\nfrom NOAA AR 3514 and a small coronal dimming. As the later CME is much faster than the former, they are expected to merge into each other." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "IZMIRAN", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-15T11:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-17T01:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 20.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 20.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.53", "predictionNote" : "Initial CME speed = 1000 km/s\nBackground CME speed = 500 km/s\nHeliolongitude = 53 deg" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-15T14:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-17T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.28", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-12-14 21:12\nRadial velocity (km/s): 974\nLongitude (deg): 44\nLatitude (deg): -17\nHalf-angular width (deg): 50\n\nNotes: Fit to Stereo-A only, no C3 available\nSpace weather advisor: DW" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-15T15:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-16T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.18", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2023-12-16T21:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 40%\nKp Range: 3-5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-16T17:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-16T22:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.97", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-12-16T20:52:40Z\n## Message ID: 20231216-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20231214-AL-007, 20231215-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-12-16T14:07Z and 2023-12-17T10:19Z (average arrival 2023-12-16T21:41Z) for 91% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-12-16T15:53Z and 2023-12-17T09:58Z (average arrival 2023-12-16T22:15Z) for 75% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 79% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-12-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA055/20231214_173800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA055_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-12-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA055/20231214_173800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA055_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-12-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA055/20231214_173800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA055_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-12-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA055/20231214_173800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA055_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-12-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA055/20231214_173800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA055_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001) was also predicted to affect OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-12-15T20:40Z and give a glancing blow to Psyche at 2023-12-18T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20231214-AL-007).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-12-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA055/Detailed_results_20231214_173800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA055.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-17T02:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 62.2, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.375, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.625, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9301.40", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-17T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9301.40", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-12-13T00:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-12-13T00:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T10:57Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo seen directed towards the NW in all coronagraphs. Source is a C2.8 flare from AR 3514 which peaked at 2023-12-12T22:55Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131, and an associated dimming region starting at 2023-12-12T22:30Z best observed in SDO AIA 193/211. The dimming regions spans approximately W12->W26 and N11->S10, with the most dimming occurring centered around N06W19. A double ribbon flare/surface brightening is observed in this same region in SDO AIA 304, along with a small post-eruptive arcade that begins at the same time as the eruption. Clear arrival signature: A clear shock signature with a sharp increase in B total to initially 15nT and eventually to over 23nT, with rapid fluctuations of all magnetic field components. This is accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed at first from under 300 to 400 km/s, further increasing to just under 550 km/s and a sharp increase in ion density and temperature. There is also a matching arrival at STEREO A.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-13T18:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T15:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.75", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28130/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-12-12T00:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=5.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=306.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-12-12T10:23Z\n2023-12-13T00:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=17.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=696.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2023-12-13T04:39Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-12-15T15:13Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =17.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.9\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-14T09:08Z\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-16T07:15Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-15T15:06Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-15T13:13Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-13T19:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-16T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.70", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 2023-12-13T05:55Z\nLongitude (deg): W023\nLatitude (deg): N04\nHalf-angular width (deg): 34\n\nNotes: Very faint, with low confidence for analysis, though higher confidence that it is on the Earth-Sun line.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-14T02:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T15:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.87", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-13 04:39\n - Time at C2: 2023-12-13 00:00\n - Radial speed: 696.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 36 deg\n - Eruption location: N02W17\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 614.80 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-12-15 15:49 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.82 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "HUXt", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-14T09:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-16T10:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.8, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.8, "confidenceInPercentage" : 83.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.93", "predictionNote" : "Cone CME parameters:\nCone CME file = cone_cme_2023121402.in\nInititaion time = 2023-12-13T05:54\nSpeed = 530 km/s\nLongitude = 23 deg \nLatitude = 4 deg\nWidth = 68 deg\n\nBackground solar wind file:\nWSA file = wsa_gong_2023121402.fits" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-14T10:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T22:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.57", "predictionNote" : "Event id=\"369\"\nexpected arrival time: 2023-12-15T22:33:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 5\nprobability_of_arrival: 60\n\n---\n\nFrom SIDC Ursigram:\n\n:Issued: 2023 Dec 14 1232 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 31214\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Dec 2023, 1231UT\nSIDC FORECAST \nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 015\nPREDICTIONS FOR 15 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 031\nPREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 027\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity reached\nmoderate levels, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares recorded\nin the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M5.8 flare, peaking at 07:44\non Dec 14, associated with the NOAA AR 3514 (beta class). Low flaring\nactivity was also produced by NOAA AR 3513 (beta class) and NOAA AR 3519\n(beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their\nphotospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any\nsignificant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be\nat low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely\nand a chance for isolated M-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A faint partial halo CME was observed in\nSOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 23:36 UTC on December 12, directed towards the\nNorth-West from Earth perspective. The coronal mass ejection is likely\nassociated to C2.9 flare from NOAA AR 3514 and a small coronal dimming. Due\nto the source location it may have an Earth directed component and is\nexpected to arrive from late on Dec 15. Solar coronal dimming was observed\non December 14, starting at around 07:33 UTC, associated to M5.8 flare. We\nare awaiting corresponding coronagraph images to assess any possible Earth\ndirected ejecta.\n\nSolar wind: At the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters were\nreflecting near slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed was\napproximately 330 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field was around\n7 nT. A small shock-like structure was observed in the solar wind at 21:06\nUTC on Dec 13. At this time the speed increased from 330 to 380 km/s and\nthe magnetic field reached the values up to 15 nT. The southward\ninterplanetary magnetic component, Bz, ranged between -14 nT and 3 nT. This\nminor solar wind enhancement indicates the passage of a solar wind\nstructure with an unclear source on the solar disc. The interplanetary\nmagnetic field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from\nthe Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be\nelevated due to the ICME passage with a chance of a week enhancement on Dec\n15-16 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a small positive\npolarity coronal hole. From late on Dec 15, the shock associated with the\npartial halo CME of Dec 13 is also expected to arrive.\n\nGeomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly\nquiet to unsettled (NOAA-Kp=1-3) with a single active period registered\nglobally (NOAA-Kp = 4) during the interval 00-06 UTC on Dec 14. Locally\nonly quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=1-3) conditions were observed over Belgium.\nGeomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels,\nwith a chance for isolated minor storm period on Dec 15-16 with expected\nhigh speed stream arrival from a small positive polarity coronal hole and\npossible CME arrival.\n\nProton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton was at the nominal\nlevels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10\npfu threshold over the next day.\n\nElectron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below\nthe 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain\nbelow this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was\nat normal levels and is expected to remain so.\n\n\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 122, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Dec 2023\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 122\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 135\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 019\nAK WINGST : 008\nESTIMATED AP : 035\nESTIMATED ISN : 118, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \n14 0711 0744 0800 N04W41 M5.8 SF 83/3514 VI/1 \nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-14T19:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T18:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.87", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 696.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 756.308\nAcceleration: -1.23135\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 239479.09\nDuration in days: 2.7717487\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.23 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 461.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 15/12/2023 Time: 18:31 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-14T19:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T20:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.85", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 696.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 423.528\nAcceleration: 1.36836\nDuration in seconds: 246287.94\nDuration in days: 2.8505549\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.37 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 760.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 15/12/2023 Time: 20:24 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T22:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 71.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9345.98", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T20:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9345.98", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-12-12T00:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-12-12T00:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T10:57Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Extremely faint partial halo CME in the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 difference imagery only. Its source might very tentatively be the mid-size filament eruption starting around 2023-12-11T22:01Z and centered around ~W05N05, just N of the central (equatorial) coronal hole. The eruption is seen as a mid-size dimming area in AIA 193. Arrival signature of what is likely the combined shock of this and 2023-12-13T00:00Z CME (or just of the 2023-12-13T00:00 CME): a sharp increase in B total to initially to under 15nT and eventually to over 23nT, with rapid fluctuations of all magnetic field components. This is accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed at first from under 300 to 400 km/s, further increasing to just under 550 km/s (possibly the arrival of and a sharp increase in ion density and temperature. There is also a matching arrival at STEREO A.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-12T05:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "77.77", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Dec 13 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\n \n\nSolar Activity\n\n \n\n.24 hr Summary...\n...\n \n\n\n\nCoronal dimming was observed in GOES-16 SUVI 195 imagery, starting at\napproximately 11/2220 UTC near Region 3514. A subsequent, very faint,\npartial halo CME front was then seen in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery at\napproximately 11/2348 UTC, propagating in a north westerly manner. An\nadditional dimming event was observed in GOES-16 SUVI 195 imagery\nfollowing the C9 flare from Region 3514. An extremely narrow, jet-like\nCME was then seen in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately\n12/0424 UTC. While being low confidence, the first event was modeled and\ndetermined to be on the Sun-Earth line with an arrival time of mid to\nlate day on 15 Dec. The second event was modeled and determined to be a\nmiss ahead of Earth's orbit. However, it too is low confidence as there\nmay be two separate events occurring during that time frame or shortly\nthereafter, and there is some ambiguity as to the source location." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-13T18:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T15:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.75", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28130/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-12-12T00:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=5.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=306.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-12-12T10:23Z\n2023-12-13T00:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=17.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=696.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2023-12-13T04:39Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-12-15T15:13Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =17.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.9\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-14T09:08Z\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-16T07:15Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-15T15:06Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-15T13:13Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T13:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9345.98", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-15T13:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9345.98", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-12-01T22:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-12-01T22:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-12-04T04:30Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide CME seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. Brightening and broad area of dimming starts at 2023-12-01T21:15Z in SDO AIA 193, 171. Rising/opening field lines as well as ejecta off the SW limb visible in SDO AIA 171 around 21:51Z. Post-eruptive arcades visible at 23:24Z in SDO AIA 171 and 304 imagery. Associated with an M1.0 flare from AR 13500. Arrival signature likely combined with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream in DSCOVR data at L1 and is characterized by an amplification in magnetic field components, with B_total increasing from approx. 6 nT to 10 nT by 2023-12-04T05:10Z, and an increase in density. The solar wind speed increased from around 500 km/s to 520 km/s, reaching 550 km/s around 2023-12-04T09:00Z, but was already elevated from the coronal hole high speed stream influence.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-02T13:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-05T04:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.65", "predictionNote" : "Issued: 2023 Dec 02 1347 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 22:12 UTC. It is likely to be geo-effective and arrive at the first half of 5 Dec." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-02T19:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-04T17:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.98", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, STEREO A, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-12-02T19:31:06Z\n## Message ID: 20231202-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-12-01T22:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~656 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 38/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-12-01T22:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, STEREO A, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-12-03T15:31Z, Psyche at 2023-12-05T07:46Z, STEREO A at 2023-12-04T14:53Z, and the flank of the CME may reach Solar Orbiter at 2023-12-04T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-12-04T17:17Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-12-01T22:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231202_041000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231202_041000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231202_041000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231202_041000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231202_041000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231202_041000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231202_041000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231202_041000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-12-01T22:24:00-CME-001) is associated with an M1.0 flare from Active Region 13500 (S18W40) with ID 2023-12-01T20:55:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-12-01T21:20Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-03T07:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-04T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.33", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-12-01T22:00\nRadial velocity (km/s): 585\nLongitude (deg): 45W\nLatitude (deg): 19S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 44\n\nNotes: Average taken of several analysis of this feature.\nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-03T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-04T15:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.50", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-02 04:10\n - Time at C2: 2023-12-01 22:24\n - Radial speed: 656.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: S20W38\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 602.80 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-12-04 15:36 (i.e. predicted transit time: 65.20 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-12-04T01:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-04T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "3.37", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time : 2023-12-04T22:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive : 50%\nKp Range : 3-5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-04T20:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 46.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9616.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-04T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9616.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-11-28T20:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-11-28T20:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T08:48Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2 after a data gap from 2023-11-28T18:53Z-23:53Z. Overlaps with CME: 2023-11-28T20:24Z in the coronagraphs, and is a separate, measurable CME occurring in close succession from the same active region. The source is an eruption from AR 3500 (S16W03) starting around 2023-11-28T19:00Z associated with an M3.4 class flare peaking at 2023-11-28T19:32Z and/or an M9.8 class flare peaking at 2023-11-28T19:50Z. Flare, EUV wave, dimming, and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193, flare, opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and flare and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 94. Eruption is also visible in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching 28nT, and an increase in speed from 373 km/s at 2023-12-01T08:49Z to 560 km/s at 09:20Z. Subsequent increases in density and temperature were observed.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-29T01:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T06:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.12", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-11-29T01:41:55Z\n## Message ID: 20231129-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-28T20:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~910 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 13/0 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-28T20:24:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-28T20:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~768 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 2/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-28T20:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-30T09:11Z, Psyche at 2023-12-01T15:12Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-30T22:24Z, and STEREO A at 2023-12-01T04:50Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-12-01T06:45Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-11-28T20:24:00-CME-001, 2023-11-28T20:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThese CME events are associated with M3.4 flare with ID 2023-11-28T19:07:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-11-28T19:32Z from Active Region 3500 (S16W02) and M9.8 flare with ID 2023-11-28T19:35:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-11-28T19:50Z from Active Region 3500 (S16W03) (see notifications 20231128-AL-002 and 20231128-AL-003).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-29T03:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.62", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels with a M9.8 flare from AR 3500 at\n28/1950 UTC, the highest of the period. Region 3500 (S09W02,\nDkc/beta-gamma) continued to be the largest, most complex region on the\ndisk, and the main culprit of activity producing a M3.4 flare at 28/1932\nUTC along with the aforementioned M9 flare...\n\nThe CMEs from the 27th, mentioned in previous discussions, were modeled\nand determined to have at least somewhat of an Earth-directed component\nwith arrivals first on 30 Nov, and then early on 01 Dec for the latter\ntwo events. As for 28 Nov, Type II radio sweeps, associated with the\naforementioned M-class flares with estimated speeds of 340 and 854 km/s,\nand 10 cm radio bursts (210 sfu and 720 sfu, respectively), were\nreported by USAF observatories. Then, at approximately 28/2012 UTC\na full halo CME can ben seen in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery. Analysis\nand modeling of this event determined an arrival time of early to midday\non 01 Dec...\n\n...Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate\nlevels through 30 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux may\nexperience a slight enhancement on 29 Nov due to the event produced by\nAR 3500 on the 28 Nov. Otherwise, background levels are expected to\npersist through 01 Dec.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n..Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to continue to diminish on 28 Nov and\ncontinue through the majority of 29 Nov. An enhancement from the 27 Nov\nfilament eruption will likely materialize late 29 Nov into early 30 Nov\nproviding glancing influences. An additional, further enhancements are\nexpected on 01 Dec with the arrival of the two CMEs from late on 27 Nov\nand the 28 Nov halo CME.\n\nGeospace\n\n...Forecast...\nPrimarily quiet conditions are expected early on 29 Nov, with active\nlevels expected to begin by late 29 Nov following the anticipated\narrival of the early 27 Nov CME. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is\nlikely, with a chance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) period, on 30 Nov as\nCME effects continue. By 01 Dec, G2 (Moderate) conditions are likely\nwith the anticipated arrival of the late 27 Nov/ 28 Nov CMEs...\n\n-------------------------\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 29-Dec 01 2023 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 29-Dec 01 2023\n\n Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01\n00-03UT 1.00 5.00 (G1) 5.00 (G1)\n03-06UT 2.00 5.33 (G1) 5.67 (G2)\n06-09UT 2.00 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1)\n09-12UT 1.33 4.00 4.33 \n12-15UT 2.00 3.33 4.00 \n15-18UT 2.33 3.00 3.00 \n18-21UT 2.67 3.33 3.33 \n21-00UT 4.00 3.67 3.67 \n\nRationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater geomagnetic storms are\nlikely on 30 Nov and 01 Dec due to influences from multiple CMEs.\n\n-------------------------\n\nSpace Weather Message Code: WATA50\nSerial Number: 73\nIssue Time: 2023 Nov 29 1756 UTC\n\nWATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted\n\nHighest Storm Level Predicted by Day:\nNov 30: G1 (Minor) Dec 01: G3 (Strong) Dec 02: G1 (Minor)\n\nTHIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-29T06:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.58", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/0056\nRadial velocity (km/s): 740\nLongitude (deg): W01\nLatitude (deg): S07\nHalf-angular width (deg): 41\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: LH" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-29T08:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.60", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time : 2023-12-01T02:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive : 80%\nKp Range : 4-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-29T10:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T06:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.35, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.13, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.07", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/11/28 20:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 03:40Z; 31.5Rsun; S//W Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 05:20Z; 31.5Rsun; N//E Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:40\nPOS Midpoint: 04:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.04\nTravel Time: ~7.04 * 8:15 = 58:04\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-12-01T06:19Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours\n - Travel Time: 10%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-29T10:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T09:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.06, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.04, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.87", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/11/28 20:15Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 03:40Z; 31.5Rsun; S//W Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 05:20Z; 31.5Rsun; N//E Direction\nPOS Difference: 1:40\nPOS Midpoint: 04:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 5\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~4.53\nTravel Time: ~4.53 * 8:15 = 37:24\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-11-30T09:39Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 10%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-29T12:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T10:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.20", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 768.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 830.252\nAcceleration: -1.56041\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 222483.83\nDuration in days: 2.5750443\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.56 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 483.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/12/2023 Time: 10:36 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-29T12:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T15:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.17", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 768.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 462.624\nAcceleration: 1.18387\nDuration in seconds: 241301.66\nDuration in days: 2.7928433\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.18 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 748.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/12/2023 Time: 15:49 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-29T13:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.53", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 31129\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Nov 2023, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 29 Nov 2023 10CM FLUX: 185 / AP: 005 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 30 Nov 2023 10CM FLUX: 182 / AP: 010 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 01 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 027\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A full halo Corona Mass Ejection (CME) was automatically detected by CACTus as launched yesterday at 20:24 UTC. It is associated with an M9 flare and is expected to become geo-effective during the second half of 1 Dec." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-30T00:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T05:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.53", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-11-29 00:03\n - Time at C2: 2023-11-28 20:24\n - Radial speed: 910.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N00W13\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 679.00 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-12-01 05:46 (i.e. predicted transit time: 57.37 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-30T15:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T07:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 14.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 14.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.58", "predictionNote" : "Prediction Method: ELEvo\n\nCME input parameters:\nApex direction (deg): W02\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35\n\ninitial CME speed: 768 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2023-11-29T01:03Z\ndrag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 10 min\nensemble members: 100k\n\nPrediction done by Eva Weiler" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T07:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 86.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9684.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T07:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9684.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-11-28T20:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-11-28T20:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T08:48Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Asymmetric halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, with a data gap in STEREO A COR2 from 2023-11-28T18:53Z-23:53Z. The source is an eruption from AR 3500 (S16W03) starting around 2023-11-28T19:00Z with subsequent M3.4 flare peaking at 2023-11-28T19:32Z and/or M9.8 flare peaking at 19:50Z. Flare, EUV wave, dimming, and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193, flare, opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and flare and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 94. The CME overlaps with CME: 2023-11-28T20:48Z in the coronagraphs and may be considered a separate, measurable event from a portion of the complex eruption that is directed towards the west but could alternatively be the shock from a single CME event. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 28nT, an increase in speed from 373 km/s to 560 km/s at 2023-12-0109:20Z, and subsequent increases in density and temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-29T01:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T06:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.12", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-11-29T01:41:55Z\n## Message ID: 20231129-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-28T20:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~910 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 13/0 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-28T20:24:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-28T20:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~768 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 2/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-28T20:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-30T09:11Z, Psyche at 2023-12-01T15:12Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-30T22:24Z, and STEREO A at 2023-12-01T04:50Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-12-01T06:45Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-11-28T20:24:00-CME-001, 2023-11-28T20:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231129_000300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThese CME events are associated with M3.4 flare with ID 2023-11-28T19:07:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-11-28T19:32Z from Active Region 3500 (S16W02) and M9.8 flare with ID 2023-11-28T19:35:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-11-28T19:50Z from Active Region 3500 (S16W03) (see notifications 20231128-AL-002 and 20231128-AL-003).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T06:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9684.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-12-01T06:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9684.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-11-27T23:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T23:29Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo CME centered to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source eruption is a filament eruption with liftoff starting around 2023-11-27T23:00Z in SDO AIA 304. The eruption may also be associated with a C5.5 flare from AR 3503 (approx. N15E30). The source signature is also visible as an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 193, opening field lines in SDO AIA 171, and brightening with post-eruptive loops in SDO AIA 94. Post-eruptive loops are visible following a data gap in the NE quadrant in STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. Arrival signature (likely of the combined front of this CME with the 2023-11-27T20:12Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field from 4 nT to 13 nT (and eventually to 15 nT), with Bz component reaching -13 nT . Accompanied by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from under 350 to 450 km/s, in ion density to over 20 particles/cc and in temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-28T19:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T22:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.75", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 31128\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Nov 2023, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 28 Nov 2023 10CM FLUX: 177 / AP: 006 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 29 Nov 2023 10CM FLUX: 173 / AP: 005 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 30 Nov 2023 10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 004\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A partial halo Corona Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 18:48 UTC. It is expected to be geo-effective and arrive on 1 Dec. Another CME associated with a filament eruption can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from\n23:48 UTC, yesterday. Based on the location and extent of the filament, it is expected to arrive at Earth's environment early on Dec 1. These two events, together with the possible arrival of a CME reported yesterday, are likely to merge together and cause a strong single effect in the first half of 1 Dec." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-28T22:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.42", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-11-28T22:04:11Z\n## Message ID: 20231128-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-27T06:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~556 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-27T20:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~500 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -15/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001\n\n3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-27T23:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~997 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -37/38 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined arrival of these CMEs may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-29T07:17Z, Psyche at 2023-12-01T10:27Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-30T07:48Z, and STEREO A at 2023-11-30T06:52Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-11-30T13:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001, 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001, 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nA second enhancement in the WSA-ENLIL+Cone timeline at Earth is observed beginning around 2023-11-30T22:00Z.\n\nCME 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001 is associated with C3.8 flare with ID 2023-11-27T18:21:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-11-27T18:37Z. CME 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001 is associated with C5.5 flare with ID 2023-11-27T23:13:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-11-27T23:40Z.\n\nCME 2023-11-27T06:48Z was previously analyzed separately (see notifications 20231127-AL-001 and 20231128-AL-001) and is included in this 3-CME simulation. \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-28T23:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T04:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.56, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.89, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.10", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/11/27 23:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 05:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 11:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:40\nPOS Midpoint: 08:20Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:40\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.11\nTravel Time: ~6.11 * 8:40 = 52:56\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-11-30T04:36Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-29T03:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.30", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Nov 28 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n...A subsequent CME was observed off the SW beginning at 27/0624 UTC.\nModeling of this event suggests a bulk of the material will pass south\nof Earth, providing glancing influences on 30 Nov. Another southeasterly\nCME was seen in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at approximately\n27/2000 UTC. Initial analysis seems to suggest this event is related to\na C3.8 flare at 27/1837 UTC that originated from an area of enhanced\nflux near N20E15. Additionally, a C5.5 flare from Region 3503 (N15E31,\nHrx/alpha) occurred at around 27/2340 UTC. This event coincided with the\neruption of an approximately 13° long filament centered near N27E38,\nobserved in SUVI 304 imagery lifting off from ~27/2304-2344 UTC. Initial\nmodeling efforts showed a glancing blow on 01 Dec.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n...Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to continue to diminish on 28 Nov and\ncontinue through the majority of 29 Nov. An enhancement from the 27 Nov\nfilament eruption will likely materialize late 29 Nov into early 30 Nov\nproviding glancing influences.\n\nGeospace\n\n...Forecast...\n...Active levels are expected to begin by late 29 Nov with the\narrival of any glancing effects from the aforementioned filament\neruption of 27 Nov. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a\nchance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) period, 30 Nov as CME effects\ncontinue.\n\n-------------------------\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels with a M9.8 flare from AR 3500 at\n28/1950 UTC, the highest of the period. Region 3500 (S09W02,\nDkc/beta-gamma) continued to be the largest, most complex region on the\ndisk, and the main culprit of activity producing a M3.4 flare at 28/1932\nUTC along with the aforementioned M9 flare...\n\nThe CMEs from the 27th, mentioned in previous discussions, were modeled\nand determined to have at least somewhat of an Earth-directed component\nwith arrivals first on 30 Nov, and then early on 01 Dec for the latter\ntwo events. As for 28 Nov, Type II radio sweeps, associated with the\naforementioned M-class flares with estimated speeds of 340 and 854 km/s,\nand 10 cm radio bursts (210 sfu and 720 sfu, respectively), were\nreported by USAF observatories. Then, at approximately 28/2012 UTC\na full halo CME can ben seen in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery. Analysis\nand modeling of this event determined an arrival time of early to midday\non 01 Dec...\n\n...Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate\nlevels through 30 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux may\nexperience a slight enhancement on 29 Nov due to the event produced by\nAR 3500 on the 28 Nov. Otherwise, background levels are expected to\npersist through 01 Dec.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n..Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to continue to diminish on 28 Nov and\ncontinue through the majority of 29 Nov. An enhancement from the 27 Nov\nfilament eruption will likely materialize late 29 Nov into early 30 Nov\nproviding glancing influences. An additional, further enhancements are\nexpected on 01 Dec with the arrival of the two CMEs from late on 27 Nov\nand the 28 Nov halo CME.\n\nGeospace\n\n...Forecast...\nPrimarily quiet conditions are expected early on 29 Nov, with active\nlevels expected to begin by late 29 Nov following the anticipated\narrival of the early 27 Nov CME. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is\nlikely, with a chance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) period, on 30 Nov as\nCME effects continue. By 01 Dec, G2 (Moderate) conditions are likely\nwith the anticipated arrival of the late 27 Nov/ 28 Nov CMEs...\n\n-------------------------\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 29-Dec 01 2023 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 29-Dec 01 2023\n\n Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01\n00-03UT 1.00 5.00 (G1) 5.00 (G1)\n03-06UT 2.00 5.33 (G1) 5.67 (G2)\n06-09UT 2.00 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1)\n09-12UT 1.33 4.00 4.33 \n12-15UT 2.00 3.33 4.00 \n15-18UT 2.33 3.00 3.00 \n18-21UT 2.67 3.33 3.33 \n21-00UT 4.00 3.67 3.67 \n\nRationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater geomagnetic storms are\nlikely on 30 Nov and 01 Dec due to influences from multiple CMEs.\n\n-------------------------\n\nSpace Weather Message Code: WATA50\nSerial Number: 73\nIssue Time: 2023 Nov 29 1756 UTC\n\nWATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted\n\nHighest Storm Level Predicted by Day:\nNov 30: G1 (Minor) Dec 01: G3 (Strong) Dec 02: G1 (Minor)\n\nTHIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-30T00:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.48", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-11-29T00:56Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1040\nLongitude (deg): E030\nLatitude (deg): N35\nHalf-angular width (deg): 34\n\nNotes: Added after arrival at L1, but was in forecast as low confidence arrival from previous day (time at top). \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T16:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9693.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9693.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-11-27T20:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T23:29Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Halo CME centered towards the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and after a data gap from 2023-11-27T17:53Z-23:53Z in STEREO A COR2. Source eruption can be seen starting around 2023-11-27T18:19Z in SDO AIA 193 and is best characterized by an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruptive arcades. Associated with a C3.8 class flare from an unnumbered region around N20E15. The arrival signature (likely of the combined front of this CME and of the 2023-11-27T23:48Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field from 4 nT to 13 nT (and eventually to 15 nT), with Bz component reaching -13 nT . Accompanied by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from under 350 to 450 km/s, in ion density to over 20 particles/cc and in temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-28T19:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.72", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 31128\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Nov 2023, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 28 Nov 2023 10CM FLUX: 177 / AP: 006 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 29 Nov 2023 10CM FLUX: 173 / AP: 005 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 30 Nov 2023 10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 004\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A partial halo Corona Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 18:48 UTC. It is expected to be geo-effective and arrive on 1 Dec. Another CME associated with a filament eruption can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from\n23:48 UTC, yesterday. Based on the location and extent of the filament, it is expected to arrive at Earth's environment early on Dec 1. These two events, together with the possible arrival of a CME reported yesterday, are likely to merge together and cause a strong single effect in the first half of 1 Dec." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-28T22:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.42", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-11-28T22:04:11Z\n## Message ID: 20231128-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-27T06:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~556 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-27T20:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~500 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -15/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001\n\n3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-27T23:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~997 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -37/38 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined arrival of these CMEs may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-29T07:17Z, Psyche at 2023-12-01T10:27Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-30T07:48Z, and STEREO A at 2023-11-30T06:52Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-11-30T13:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001, 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001, 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nA second enhancement in the WSA-ENLIL+Cone timeline at Earth is observed beginning around 2023-11-30T22:00Z.\n\nCME 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001 is associated with C3.8 flare with ID 2023-11-27T18:21:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-11-27T18:37Z. CME 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001 is associated with C5.5 flare with ID 2023-11-27T23:13:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-11-27T23:40Z.\n\nCME 2023-11-27T06:48Z was previously analyzed separately (see notifications 20231127-AL-001 and 20231128-AL-001) and is included in this 3-CME simulation. \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-29T03:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.30", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Nov 28 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n...A subsequent CME was observed off the SW beginning at 27/0624 UTC.\nModeling of this event suggests a bulk of the material will pass south\nof Earth, providing glancing influences on 30 Nov. Another southeasterly\nCME was seen in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at approximately\n27/2000 UTC. Initial analysis seems to suggest this event is related to\na C3.8 flare at 27/1837 UTC that originated from an area of enhanced\nflux near N20E15. Additionally, a C5.5 flare from Region 3503 (N15E31,\nHrx/alpha) occurred at around 27/2340 UTC. This event coincided with the\neruption of an approximately 13° long filament centered near N27E38,\nobserved in SUVI 304 imagery lifting off from ~27/2304-2344 UTC. Initial\nmodeling efforts showed a glancing blow on 01 Dec.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n...Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to continue to diminish on 28 Nov and\ncontinue through the majority of 29 Nov. An enhancement from the 27 Nov\nfilament eruption will likely materialize late 29 Nov into early 30 Nov\nproviding glancing influences.\n\nGeospace\n\n...Forecast...\n...Active levels are expected to begin by late 29 Nov with the\narrival of any glancing effects from the aforementioned filament\neruption of 27 Nov. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a\nchance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) period, 30 Nov as CME effects\ncontinue.\n\n-------------------------\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels with a M9.8 flare from AR 3500 at\n28/1950 UTC, the highest of the period. Region 3500 (S09W02,\nDkc/beta-gamma) continued to be the largest, most complex region on the\ndisk, and the main culprit of activity producing a M3.4 flare at 28/1932\nUTC along with the aforementioned M9 flare...\n\nThe CMEs from the 27th, mentioned in previous discussions, were modeled\nand determined to have at least somewhat of an Earth-directed component\nwith arrivals first on 30 Nov, and then early on 01 Dec for the latter\ntwo events. As for 28 Nov, Type II radio sweeps, associated with the\naforementioned M-class flares with estimated speeds of 340 and 854 km/s,\nand 10 cm radio bursts (210 sfu and 720 sfu, respectively), were\nreported by USAF observatories. Then, at approximately 28/2012 UTC\na full halo CME can ben seen in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery. Analysis\nand modeling of this event determined an arrival time of early to midday\non 01 Dec...\n\n...Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate\nlevels through 30 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux may\nexperience a slight enhancement on 29 Nov due to the event produced by\nAR 3500 on the 28 Nov. Otherwise, background levels are expected to\npersist through 01 Dec.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n..Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to continue to diminish on 28 Nov and\ncontinue through the majority of 29 Nov. An enhancement from the 27 Nov\nfilament eruption will likely materialize late 29 Nov into early 30 Nov\nproviding glancing influences. An additional, further enhancements are\nexpected on 01 Dec with the arrival of the two CMEs from late on 27 Nov\nand the 28 Nov halo CME.\n\nGeospace\n\n...Forecast...\nPrimarily quiet conditions are expected early on 29 Nov, with active\nlevels expected to begin by late 29 Nov following the anticipated\narrival of the early 27 Nov CME. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is\nlikely, with a chance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) period, on 30 Nov as\nCME effects continue. By 01 Dec, G2 (Moderate) conditions are likely\nwith the anticipated arrival of the late 27 Nov/ 28 Nov CMEs...\n\n-------------------------\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 29-Dec 01 2023 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 29-Dec 01 2023\n\n Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01\n00-03UT 1.00 5.00 (G1) 5.00 (G1)\n03-06UT 2.00 5.33 (G1) 5.67 (G2)\n06-09UT 2.00 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1)\n09-12UT 1.33 4.00 4.33 \n12-15UT 2.00 3.33 4.00 \n15-18UT 2.33 3.00 3.00 \n18-21UT 2.67 3.33 3.33 \n21-00UT 4.00 3.67 3.67 \n\nRationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater geomagnetic storms are\nlikely on 30 Nov and 01 Dec due to influences from multiple CMEs.\n\n-------------------------\n\nSpace Weather Message Code: WATA50\nSerial Number: 73\nIssue Time: 2023 Nov 29 1756 UTC\n\nWATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted\n\nHighest Storm Level Predicted by Day:\nNov 30: G1 (Minor) Dec 01: G3 (Strong) Dec 02: G1 (Minor)\n\nTHIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T18:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9693.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-30T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9693.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-11-22T21:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-11-22T21:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-11-25T07:59Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Southern directed CME as seen in LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Partial halo. Source is a faint and broad area of dimming spanning from about E20-W30 (near AR3489 to AR3498) starting at about 2023-11-22T20:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 284 imagery. There was a C4.1-class flare from AR 3489 (S15E07) with peak time 2023-11-22T19:02Z associated with this event. Arrival signature is complex, with solar wind speed was jumping from 480 km/s to over 550 km/s, reaching a maximum near 600 km/s and a corresponding amplification of B_total from 7 nT to 18 nT and of density from 17 to over 25 particles/cc. The signature is complicated by the preceding arrival of a coronal high speed stream on 2023-11-24.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-23T06:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-26T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.48", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 23/0535\nRadial velocity (km/s): 540\nLongitude (deg): 2W\nLatitude (deg): 37S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 55\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: LH" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-23T18:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-25T17:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.65", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-11-23T18:20:58Z\n## Message ID: 20231123-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-22T21:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~665 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 6/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-22T21:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-24T20:30Z, Psyche at 2023-11-26T02:38Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-25T05:38Z, and STEREO A at 2023-11-25T16:05Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-11-25T17:01Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-11-22T21:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231123_035600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231123_035600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231123_035600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231123_035600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231123_035600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231123_035600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231123_035600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231123_035600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-11-22T21:36:00-CME-001) is associated with a C4.1 flare with ID 2023-11-22T18:58:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13489 (S15E07) which peaked at 2023-11-22T19:02Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-24T20:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-25T18:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.75, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.467, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.52", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, missions near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-11-24T21:55:37Z\n## Message ID: 20231124-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-11-22T21:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20231123-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-11-25T08:47Z and 2023-11-26T03:30Z (average arrival 2023-11-25T17:18Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-11-25T09:28Z and 2023-11-26T04:41Z (average arrival 2023-11-25T18:13Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 71% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-24_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053/20231123_014000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-24_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053/20231123_014000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-24_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053/20231123_014000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-24_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053/20231123_014000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-24_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053/20231123_014000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-24_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053/20231123_014000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-24_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053/Detailed_results_20231123_014000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA053.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-25T19:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9828.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-25T18:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9828.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-11-16T03:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-11-16T03:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-11-20T09:49Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME visible in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is seen as dimming centered around N15W15 starting around 2023-11-16T00:34Z in SDO AIA 193. This eruption is also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery near disk center. Overlaps in the field of view of the coronagraphs with CME: 2023-11-16T04:24Z, which is believed to have originated on the back side. Arrival signature: Characterized by a jump in B_total from around 5.6 nT to a peak of 14.55 nT, with Bz remaining largely neutral with a short southward spike to -5 nT. An increase in density and small spike in temperature and solar wind speed to about 340 km/s are also observed. A separate enhancement in the magnetic field components, possibly associated with the same CME event, is observed leading up to this event seen best from 2023-11-20T05:00Z onward with a gradual increase in B_total up to around 12 nT. Around 2023-11-20T09:12Z, Bt swiftly drops down to around 5-6 nT prior to this arrival.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-16T14:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-19T16:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "91.33", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/27724/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-11-16T03:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=17.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=467.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2023-11-16T10:58Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-11-19T16:01Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =17.1 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.5\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-11-18T17:19Z\nPsyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-11-19T22:48Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-11-18T22:19Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-11-19T12:35Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231116_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-16T23:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-20T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.98", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 16:09\nRadial velocity (km/s): 283\nLongitude (deg): 29\nLatitude (deg): 9\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: I considered two CMEs as front side which may not be the consensus. In SDO304 i see two locations for emission 16/02-04UT, so I thought two overlapping CMEs both front side. Here is the other faster CME which may be now be considered far side:\nT2023-11-16 08:06\nlat -4\nlon 27\ncone 23\nVel 551.\n\nThe slower CME is expected to arrive 20-Nov 10UT. If the faster CME is frontside it is expected 19-Nov 13UT. But perhaps I am incorrect in my analysis." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-17T15:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.37", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-11-16T11:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 400\nLongitude (deg): 15 W\nLatitude (deg): 15 N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 37\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Stuart Webster & Rebecca Spalton" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-20T02:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9947.12", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-20T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9947.12", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-11-09T12:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-11-09T12:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-11-12T05:30Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is based off of STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap in SOHO at the time of this DONKI entry. The eruption starts around 2023-11-08T10:42Z and is primarily characterized as a broad region of dimming centered around S10W10 near AR 3480. A piece of a filament may have erupted as seen in SDO AIA 304. This CME is associated with a C2.6 flare from AR 3480 peaking at 2023-11-09T11:18Z best seen in SDO AIA 131. Dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193, post-eruptive arcades can be best seen in SDO AIA 94/193, and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. Increase in B_total from 1.8 nT to 5.12 nT, eventually reaching a maximum of 8.3 nT, accompanied by an increase in speed from 450 km/s to approx. 530 km/s, which reached a maximum of approx. 580 km/s. Rotation is also seen in the magnetic field components, and Bz reaches near -5.8 nT. Accompanied by increases in density and temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-09T19:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-11T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.40", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Nov 10 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nDecreasing C-class flare events kept solar activity barely at low levels\nthis period. Region 3483 (N10W29, Dai/beta) and recently numbered Region\n3484 (S12W26, Dai/Beta) were the only regions to exhibit growth during\nthe period. Despite the growth and moderate magnetic complexity, only\nRegion 3483 managed to produce any C-class flare activity. The remaining\nregions with spots were inactive and in decay. The halo CME mentioned in\nthe previous discussion is expected to hit Earth mid to late day on 11\nNov (UTC). No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available\ncoronagraph imagery.\n\nGeospace\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with\nisolated active periods, over 10 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS\ninfluences. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are\nlikely, with a chance for G3 (Strong) levels, on 11-12 Nov due to the\nanticipated arrival of a CME from 09 Nov.\n\n~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Nov 10 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was low with only C-class flare activity observed this\nperiod. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3477 (S15W39, Dac/beta),\n3481 (N25W19, Bxo/beta), and 3483 (N09W23, Eai/beta), and the remaining\nregions with spots were either stable or in decay. The most notable\nevent of the period was an eruption centered near S15W15 at around\n09/1115 UTC. The associated halo CME is expected to hit Earth in the\nafternoon (UTC) of 11 Nov.\n\nGeospace\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled over 10 Nov\ndue to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1-G2\n(Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 11-12 Nov due to the\nanticipated arrival of a CME from 09 Nov." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-09T21:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-11T21:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.00", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-11-09T21:30:16Z\n## Message ID: 20231109-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-09T12:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~782 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-09T12:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-11T09:36Z, Psyche at 2023-11-11T22:29Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-11T05:44Z, and STEREO A at 2023-11-11T17:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-11-11T21:05Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-11-09T12:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231109_160100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231109_160100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231109_160100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231109_160100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231109_160100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231109_160100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231109_160100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231109_160100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-11-09T12:23:00-CME-001) is associated with C2.6 flare with ID 2023-11-09T10:53:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13480 (S11W05) which peaked at 2023-11-09T11:18Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-09T22:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-12T01:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.13", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 782.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 844.630\nAcceleration: -1.62585\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 220414.98\nDuration in days: 2.5510993\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.63 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 486.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/11/2023 Time: 01:36 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-09T22:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-12T07:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.10", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 782.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 470.226\nAcceleration: 1.14706\nDuration in seconds: 241052.81\nDuration in days: 2.7899631\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.15 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 746.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/11/2023 Time: 07:20 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-09T23:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-11T18:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.42, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.78", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/11/09 11:45Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 19:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 22:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:20\nPOS Midpoint: 21:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 3\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~5.95\nTravel Time: ~5.95 * 9:15 = 55:00\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-11-11T18:45Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours\n - Travel Time: 10%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-10T00:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-11T18:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.817, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.18", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-11-11T09:08Z and 2023-11-11T21:22Z (average arrival 2023-11-11T15:43Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally, the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-11-11T11:35Z and 2023-11-12T00:18Z (average arrival 2023-11-11T18:24Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 93% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-09_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052/20231109_122300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-09_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052/20231109_122300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-09_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052/20231109_122300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-09_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052/20231109_122300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-09_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052/20231109_122300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-11-09T12:23:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-11T09:36Z, Psyche at 2023-11-11T22:29Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-11T05:44Z, and STEREO A at 2023-11-11T17:55Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20231109-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. \n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-09_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052/Detailed_results_20231109_122300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-10T01:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-11T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.42", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2023-11-11T22:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nKp Range: 4-6" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-10T01:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-12T01:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.33", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-11-09 16:01\n - Time at C2: 2023-11-09 12:23\n - Radial speed: 782.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N14W10\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 640.60 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-11-12 01:25 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.05 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-10T02:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-11T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.25", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 20231109T1648\nRadial velocity (km/s): 684\nLongitude (deg): 9\nLatitude (deg): 12\nHalf-angular width (deg): 50\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-10T06:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-11T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.17", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-10T10:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-12T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.92", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: Secondary analysis on CME, a full range of cone/speed variations, given how broad the area was that lifted off from the Sun I'm keen to go for a slower and wider cone. My average over 6 attempts and probably my best fit overall is 650-700 km/s with a cone of 45-50 degrees. This pushing the arrival back late 11 or early 12 Nov. \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-10T12:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-11T23:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 13.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.97", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nApex direction: W10\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nAngular half width (in ecliptic): 35°\n\ninitial CME speed: 782 (+/- 50) km/s\ninitial height: 21.5 R_sun\ninitial time: 2023-11-09T16:01Z\ndrag parameter: 0.15e-7 (+/-0.025e-7) /km \nambient solar wind speed: 450 (+/- 50) km/s\ntime step: 5 min\nensemble members: 100k" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-11T22:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 84.8, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.375, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-10143.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-11T22:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-10143.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-11-03T05:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-11-03T05:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T11:45Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Large complex-shaped (possibly partial halo) to the north. Source is likely the eruption of a very long filament stretching from N42E15 to N01W60 seen in AIA 193/304/131. The filament is centered very approximately around N30W30. The eruption was likely associated with the corresponding long duration C3.2-class flare peaking at 2023-11-03T06:17Z. Arrival signature: a sharp temporary jump in total magnetic field to 44 nT at 2023-11-05T11:45Z, up from the already elevated 20 nT after CME arrival four hours prior) accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 520 km/s; ion density remains high after the previous arrival in the morning. The arrival is followed by a bout of negative Bz with values close to -20 nT. Further analysis of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian (NASA/GSFC) can be found in DONKI: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/IPS/27611/-1", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-03T16:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T22:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.65, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.13, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.00", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/11/03 05:30Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 2:50\nPOS Midpoint: 14:05Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:35\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.54\nTravel Time: ~7.54 * 8:35 = 64:43\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-11-05T22:13Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours\n - Travel Time: 10%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-03T17:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.63", "predictionNote" : "MOSWOC ENLIL and calculations." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-03T17:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T08:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.62", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/27570/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-11-03T05:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=21.0, Speed=874.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-11-03T09:17Z\n2023-11-02T23:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=45.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=332.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2023-11-03T10:05Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-11-05T08:58Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =16.1 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-11-04T23:29Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-11-04T10:10Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-11-05T08:01Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231103_100500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-03T19:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.10", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2023 Nov 03 1429 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA wide partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in the\nLASCO/C2 data starting at 05:36 UTC on Nov 3rd. The CME source was a large\nfilament eruption in the north-west quadrant. The automated detection by\nCACTUS suggests a projected velocity of about CME 500 km/s for the bulk of\nthe CME. Preliminary analysis suggests a possible arrival at Earth on Nov\n06th, but further analysis is ongoing. The CME is expected to cause minor\nto moderate geomagnetic conditions with chances of reaching severe\ngeomagnetic storm levels." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-04T01:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T14:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.52", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-11-04T12:49:54Z\n## Message ID: 20231104-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-11-03T05:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20231103-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-11-05T05:33Z and 2023-11-05T18:49Z (average arrival 2023-11-05T13:09Z) for 95% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-11-05T06:35Z and 2023-11-05T22:18Z (average arrival 2023-11-05T14:34Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 72% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-03_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA051/20231103_054800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA051_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-03_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA051/20231103_054800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA051_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-03_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA051/20231103_054800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA051_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-03_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA051/20231103_054800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA051_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-03_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA051/20231103_054800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA051_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-11-03T05:48:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-04T23:29Z, Psyche at 2023-11-05T11:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-04T10:10Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20231103-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-03_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA051/Detailed_results_20231103_054800_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA051.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-04T01:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T18:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.33", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-11-03 09:47\n - Time at C2: 2023-11-03 05:48\n - Radial speed: 796.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 47 deg\n - Eruption location: N32E03\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 644.80 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-11-05 18:25 (i.e. predicted transit time: 60.63 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-04T22:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.50", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: B\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T17:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 76.25, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-10305.18", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T18:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 82.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-10305.18", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-11-02T03:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-11-02T03:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T08:10Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the large dimming region centered around N25E25 which begins to dim around 2023-11-02T03:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Faint field line movement is visible above the eruption in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with post eruptive loops starting to form around 2023-11-02T04:30Z. ICME arrival signature is characterized by a sharp jump in magnetic field from already elevated 14 nT (after arrival a day before) to 25 nT, then gradually increasing to 34 nT, accompanied by rapid rotations of all three magnetic field components and by a jump in solar wind speed from 320 km/s to 430 km/s. There is a corresponding increase in ion density and temperature. Further analysis of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian (NASA/GSFC) can be found in DONKI: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/IPS/27602/-1", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-02T15:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T00:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.13", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, Psyche, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-11-02T15:02:18Z\n## Message ID: 20231102-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-11-02T03:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~699 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-11-02T03:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, Psyche, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-04T10:15Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-03T13:57Z, Psyche at 2023-11-05T12:00Z, and STEREO A at 2023-11-05T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-11-05T00:28Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-11-02T03:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231102_084800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231102_084800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231102_084800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231102_084800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231102_084800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231102_084800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231102_084800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231102_084800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-02T15:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-06T13:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.54, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "29.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.20", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/11/02 03:45Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 12:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 19:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 7:00\nPOS Midpoint: 16:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.67\nTravel Time: ~8.67 * 12:15 = 106:12\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-11-06T13:57Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-02T19:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-04T20:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.16, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.85, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.93", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-11-03T12:21:15Z ## Message ID: 20231103-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-11-02T03:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20231102-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-11-04T15:45Z and 2023-11-04T23:44Z (average arrival 2023-11-04T19:13Z) for 41% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-11-04T16:09Z and 2023-11-05T03:10Z (average arrival 2023-11-04T20:19Z) for 70% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 79% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA050/20231102_033600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA050_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA050/20231102_033600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA050_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA050/20231102_033600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA050_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA050/20231102_033600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA050_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA050/20231102_033600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA050_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-11-02T03:36:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-04T10:15Z, Psyche at 2023-11-05T12:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-03T13:57Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20231102-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA050/Detailed_results_20231102_033600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA050.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-02T23:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.70", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 20231102T0935\nRadial velocity (km/s): 621\nLongitude (deg): -17\nLatitude (deg): 38\nHalf-angular width (deg): 47\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvoHI", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-03T11:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T12:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.28", "predictionNote" : "To run ELEvoHI the time-elongation profile from STEREO-A/HI beacon data is used.\n\nParameters to run the model (single run mode):\nInverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7\nHalf width (within the ecliptic): 45 degrees\nPropagation direction: W25 (from CME source region)\n\nResults: \n\nThe CME is decelerated by the ambient solar wind.\nElongation range used for prediction: 4.7 - 19.6 degree\nCorresponding heliocentric distance [AU]: 0.09 - 0.35 AU\nCorresponding heliocentric distance [Rsun]: 20.3 - 75.3 Rsun\n\n===========================================\n|| Most accurate fitting for solar wind speed: 500 [km/s].\n|| Resulting drag parameter: 1.27e-07 [1/km]. \n|| Minimum mean residual: -0.17 [Rsun]. \n|| Initial time: 2023-11-02 13:52 UT \n|| Initial distance: 20.3 [Rsun]. \n|| Initial speed: 690 [km/s]. \n===========================================\n\n------------------------------------\nArrival time at STEREO-A: 2023-11-05 12:42\nArrival speed at STEREO-A: 484 km/s\n------------------------------------\nArrival time at Solar Orbiter: 2023-11-04 00:22\nArrival speed at Solar Orbiter: 546 km/s\n------------------------------------\nArrival time at L1: 2023-11-05 12:02\nArrival speed at L1: 502 km/s\n------------------------------------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-04T05:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.33", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-11-02T09:15Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 648\nLongitude (deg): 12E\nLatitude (deg): 41N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 41\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Luca Greenough" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T08:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 72.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-10308.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-05T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 72.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-10308.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-10-31T22:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-10-31T22:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-11-04T15:45Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the south/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is a filament eruption stretching between S18E00 to S40E40. The filament begins to erupt around 2023-10-31T20:00Z as seen in SDO/AIA 304 with clear deflection to the south/southeast towards disk center before exiting the SDO/AIA field-of-view. Brightening, moving/opening field lines, and a wide-set post-eruptive arcade are visible following the eruption of the filament in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 304. Likely arrival signature is characterized by a rapid amplification of magnetic field with Btotal increasing from 5nT at 2023-11-04T15:45Z to 16nT at 16:57Z. A significant increase in density is observed as well. Further review of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian at NASA/GSFC suggests that this arrival may be associated with CME: 2023-10-31T22:12Z. It is possible that the B rotations in late Nov 4 at the WIND spacecraft are due to the same CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-01T05:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-04T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.63", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Nov 01 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\n...\nBeginning around 31/1918 UTC an approximately 25 degree long filament\ncentered near S38E25 erupted. Analysis and modeling efforts determined\nthe bulk of the ejecta to be south with a nearby passing of Earth on 5\nNov. \n----------\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Nov 02 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n...\nSolar Wind\nForecast\n... Late on 04 Nov to early on 05 Nov, a glancing blow from\nthe 31 Oct CME is possible.\nGeospace\n...\nForecast\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 02 Nov and\nmostly quiet on 03 Nov. Late on 04 Nov, an increase to unsettled levels\nis possible due to glancing effects from the 31 Oct CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-01T13:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-04T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.48", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2023 Nov 01 1247 UTC:\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 31101\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Nov 2023, 1246UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) \nPREDICTIONS FOR 01 Nov 2023 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 006 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 02 Nov 2023 10CM FLUX: 148 / AP: 005 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 03 Nov 2023 10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 004\n\nCoronal mass ejections: Coronal mass ejections: A filament eruption in the south-east quadrant late on Oct 31st resulted in a south-west coronal mass ejection (CME), first detected by LASCO C2 at 21:36 UTC. The estimated projected velocity of the CME is around 500 km/s. Based on the location of the filament the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, but a glancing blow is possible to arrive on Nov 4th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-11-01T21:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-04T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.43", "predictionNote" : "Simulation results for the narrower bulk portion of this event:\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/27545/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-10-31T22:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-32.0, Speed=717.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2023-11-01T02:45Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-11-04T05:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-11-03T16:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-11-04T03:30Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231101_024600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-04T09:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-10325.18", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-11-04T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-10325.18", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-10-16T12:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-10-20T07:30Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is C7.5 class flare starting at 2023-10-16T10:31Z and associated eruption. The flare can be best seen in SDO AIA 131/193, opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and dimming and post eruptive loops are also seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival Signature: Characterized by a weak amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 10nT at 2023-10-20T12:38Z. Subsequent increases were observed in density and temperature. This was followed by a rotation in magnetic field components during which an extended period of negative Bz was observed from around 2023-10-20T17:30Z to 2023-10-21T08:00Z. This arrival signature may be reflective of a weak arrival/glancing blow from CME: 2023-10-16T12:09Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-16T16:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-19T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "86.95", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-10-16T16:33:11Z\n## Message ID: 20231016-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-10-16T12:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~720 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -45/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2023-10-18T00:09Z and Solar Orbiter at 2023-10-17T08:35Z. The flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2023-10-19T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-10-19T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001) is associated with C7.5 flare with ID 2023-10-16T10:32:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13467 (N13E47) which peaked at 2023-10-16T10:51Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-16T21:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-19T03:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.17", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-10-16 17:06\n - Time at C2: 2023-10-16 12:09\n - Radial speed: 720.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 35 deg\n - Eruption location: N13E45\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 622.00 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-10-19 03:09 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.02 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-16T21:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-19T13:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.033, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.05, "confidenceInPercentage" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.60", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-10-17T19:18:14Z\n## Message ID: 20231017-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20231016-AL-002 and 20231017-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A for an average arrival of 2023-10-19T09:41Z for 3% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-10-19T09:28Z and 2023-10-19T17:33Z (average arrival 2023-10-19T13:30Z) for 6% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 66% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-10-16_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA048/20231016_120900_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA048_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-10-16_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA048/20231016_120900_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA048_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-10-16_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA048/20231016_120900_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA048_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-10-16_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA048/20231016_120900_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA048_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-10-16_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA048/20231016_120900_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA048_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at OSIRIS at 2023-10-19T08:15Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-10-18T01:10Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2023-10-17T08:26Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notifications 20231016-AL-002 and 20231017-AL-001).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-10-16_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA048/Detailed_results_20231016_120900_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA048.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-16T23:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-19T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "80.35", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\n--------- Notes ----------\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Oct 17 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n...\n\n.Forecast...\nEnhanced conditions are expected on 17-18 Oct due to a SSBC and positive\npolarity CH HSS effects. Minor CME influences are anticipated for 19 Oct\nas the 16 CME described above passes near Earth.\n\n--------------------------\n\nSpace Weather Message Code: WATA20\nSerial Number: 971\nIssue Time: 2023 Oct 17 1700 UTC\n\nWATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted\n\nHighest Storm Level Predicted by Day:\nOct 18: None (Below G1) Oct 19: G1 (Minor) Oct 20: G1 (Minor)\n\nTHIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT\n\nComment: A CME that erupted from the Sun on 16 Oct is expected to pass near Earth on 19 Sep, which will increase the chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming on 19 and 20 Oct. \n\nNOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at\nwww.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation\n\nPotential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.\nInduced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.\nSpacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.\nAurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-16T23:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-20T13:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.37, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.68", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/10/16 12:30Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 20:20Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 03:10Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:50\nPOS Midpoint: 23:45Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.64\nTravel Time: ~8.64 * 11:15 = 97:11\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-10-20T13:41Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%\n\nNotes:\nCoronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-17T03:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-20T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.70", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-10-16T17:37Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 643\nLongitude (deg): -49\nLatitude (deg): 15\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-17T12:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-20T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.65", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2023 Oct 17 1236 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 31017\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Oct 2023, 1235UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 17 Oct 2023 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 001 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 18 Oct 2023 10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 010 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Oct 2023 10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 007\n\n...\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) to the east was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 11:48 UTC. This was associated with a long duration C7.5 flare on October 16, peaking at 10:51 UTC. The CME appears to mostly be directed to the east but a wider shock is visible. A glancing blow at Earth is possible on October 20. ..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-17T19:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-19T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.37", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (OSIRIS, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-10-17T19:08:04Z\n## Message ID: 20231017-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20231016-AL-002). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS at 2023-10-19T08:15Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-10-18T01:10Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-10-17T08:26Z, and STEREO A at 2023-10-19T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-10-19T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n\nCME parameters are (C-type):\n\nStart time of the event: 2023-10-16T12:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~720 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -45/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231016_170800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001) is associated with C7.5 flare with ID 2023-10-16T10:32:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13467 (N13E47) which peaked at 2023-10-16T10:51Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-17T22:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-20T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.50", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 680\nLongitude (deg): 46E\nLatitude (deg): 14N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 36\n\nNotes: Bulk missing behind (to east), but some material potentially caught in any CIR ahead of CH62/-, with glancing impact possible.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-18T10:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-19T06:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.03", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 720.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 780.956\nAcceleration: -1.33964\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 237294.49\nDuration in days: 2.7464640\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.34 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 463.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/10/2023 Time: 06:03 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-18T10:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-19T08:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-22.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.02", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 720.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 436.560\nAcceleration: 1.30777\nDuration in seconds: 246837.60\nDuration in days: 2.8569166\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.31 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 759.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/10/2023 Time: 08:42 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-19T12:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-20T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.10", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2023 Oct 18 1231 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 31018\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Oct 2023, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST \nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 18 Oct 2023 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 013\nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Oct 2023 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 008\nPREDICTIONS FOR 20 Oct 2023 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 011\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at low\nlevels. There are currently three numbered active regions on the solar\ndisk. The region on the north east limb is not yet numbered and remains\nvery small and simple. NOAA AR3465 is the most complex region on the disk,\nbut has been quiet. The remaining regions were mostly simple and were\nquiet. NOAA AR3463 decayed into a plage region. The solar flaring activity\nis expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares\nlikely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday,\nfirst observed from 05:17 UTC in SOHO/LASCO-C2 to the south-west is\npredicted to be mostly directed to the south of the Sun-Earth line. The CME\nis also relatively slow (around 400 km/s) but may have a glancing blow at\nEarth late on October 21. A wide partial halo CME, seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2\nfrom 02:30 UT October 18 - directed mostly to the north-east, is determined\nto be back-sided and will not impact Earth.\n\nSolar wind: The solar wind parameters reflected a slow solar wind regime at\nthe start of the period. From 02:30 UTC on October 18, the solar wind\nparameters showed the likely influence of the solar wind from the positive\npolarity coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on October 14.\nThe interplanetary magnetic field increased, reaching 10nT by 11 UTC. Bz\nhad a minimum value of -9 nT. The solar wind speed increased from 300 km/s\nto near 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation switched\nfrom the predominantly in the negative sector to the positive sector (field\ndirected away from Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain\nslightly enhanced over the next days under the influence of a weak high-\nspeed stream. Additionally further enhancements may be possible on October\n20 due to the glancing blow predicted for the CME of October 16.\n\nGeomagnetism: During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet\nto unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-2 and K Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are\nexpected to be at unsettled to active levels on October 18. Active\nintervals are also possible on October 20 due to the glancing blow\npredicted for the CME of October 16.\n\nProton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES\nproton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the\nnext days.\n\nElectron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below\nthe 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain\nbelow this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was\nat nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels\nfor the next days." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-19T19:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 32.2, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.625, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.625, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-10693.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-19T18:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-10693.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-10-02T18:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-10-02T18:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-10-05T21:25Z", "maxKP" : 3.33, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Extremely faint CME with uneven front seen to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and COR2A. Source is very uncertain but one low confidence candidate is an area of very subtle dimming seen at 2023-10-02T16:54Z in SDO AIA & GOES SUVI 195 spanning from about N05E22 to N05E00(AR 13453) down to S10E00. Centered at about S05E10. This dimming is possibly associated with a C-class flare and small eruption from AR 13450 (S10E07) seen starting at 2023-10-02T15:54Z. A possible weak arrival starts around 2023-10-05T21:25Z and is characterized by rapid increase in wind speed from 430 to 490 km/s, some gradual increase in magnetic field strength from 5 to 9 nT, density increase from 3 to 14 particles/cc, and relatively small decrease in temperature. Field rotations follow around 2023-10-0617:00Z; there is a small increase in GOES >1 MeV channel at the same time that seems to support a CME arrival.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-03T19:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-06T11:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.93", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/27175/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-10-02T18:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=467.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2023-10-03T01:32Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-10-06T11:11Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =18.4 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.9\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-10-06T07:35Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231003_013200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231003_013200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231003_013200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231003_013200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231003_013200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231003_013200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231003_013200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231003_013200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231003_013200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231003_013200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231003_013200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-03T22:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-05T19:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.62", "predictionNote" : "ME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-10-03 01:32\n - Time at C2: 2023-10-02 18:24\n - Radial speed: 467.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 29 deg\n - Eruption location: N00E20\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 546.10 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-10-05 19:02 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.63 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-04T09:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-07T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.25", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME Event ID: \nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: Based on the single-CME simulation available on NOAA/SWPC homepage issued 2023-10-04T09:10Z combined with G1 Watch issued at 2023-10-05T17:48Z and below 3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast issued 2023-10-05T12:30Z:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Oct 06 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n...\nSolar Wind\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are anticipated to remain slightly enhanced through 07 Oct due to residual CH HSS influence, with possible transient\ninfluence mixed in. An additional enhancement, primarily from the 02 Oct\nCME, is anticipated to arrive by early 07 Oct. Any lingering disturbance\nin the solar wind environment would likely continue into 8 Oct.\n\n~~~\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Oct 05 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n...\nThe easterly CME from 02 Oct that was first seen in SOHO LASCO C2\nimagery around 1824 UTC was determined to have possibly been from\ndimming that was observed near AR 3450 in GOES-16 195 Angstroms at\napproximately 02/1704 UTC. This CME presents a fairly odd profile,\ndeflecting eastward, given the suspected source location was relatively\nclose to meridian and therefore confidence is low. WSA-Enlil returned\nthis event with a bulk of the material missing behind Earth's orbit on\nthe 7th while delivering a weak glancing blow. Next, there was\nnortheasterly CME (misstated as northwesterly in the previous\ndiscussion) first observed by SOHO LASCO C2 imagery around 03/1236\nUTC. This event was determined to have originated beyond the eastern\nlimb. However, as it faster than the aforementioned 02 Oct event, some\ninteraction between the two can not be ruled out with this faster CME\nspeeding along the arrival of the 02 Oct event some what sooner.\nAlthough, confidence is low in that outcome.\n\n~~~\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2023 Oct 05 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 05-Oct 07 2023 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 05-Oct 07 2023\n\n Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct 07\n00-03UT 4.33 3.67 3.33 \n03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 3.67 \n06-09UT 2.33 2.00 2.00 \n09-12UT 3.67 1.67 2.33 \n12-15UT 3.00 1.67 3.00 \n15-18UT 3.67 2.33 3.67 \n18-21UT 3.00 3.67 3.00 \n21-00UT 2.67 2.67 3.00 \n\nRationale: There is a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) storming period\non 07 Oct with weak, glancing effects from the 02 Sep CME event.\n 02 Sep CME event." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-10-04T11:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-06T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.03", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-10-03T01:08Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 445\nLongitude (deg): 3S\nLatitude (deg): 14E\nHalf-angular width (deg): 28\n\nNotes: Low confidence fit to available imagery\nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-06T09:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11039.52", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-10-06T08:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11039.52", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-09-22T07:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T19:52Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME seen to the NNW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The CME fades away quickly in SOHO LASCO C3 imagery, and the leading edge is diffuse. Source location is likely an eruption centered around N27W02 starting around 2023-09-22T06:00Z best seen as dimming in SDO AIA 193. Arrival signature: sharp amplification of magnetic field to 27nT and increases in solar wind speed from ~300 km/s to ~500 km/s, with subsequent increases in density and temperature. Alternatively, this could be the arrival of 2023-09-14T07:24Z CME or possibly the combined arrival of these two CMEs.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-22T15:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T08:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.52", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-09-22T15:21:41Z\n## Message ID: 20230922-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-09-22T02:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1026 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -31/36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001\n\n2: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-09-22T07:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1508 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 4/28 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO A. The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO A at 2023-09-24T05:44Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-09-24T08:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001, 2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001, and 2023-09-22T07:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis simulation also includes the S-type CME with ID 2023-09-22T07:12:00-CME-001 which is not predicted to impact any NASA missions.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-22T20:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T04:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.7, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.02", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-09-23T12:47:11Z\n## Message ID: 20230923-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001 and 2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230922-AL-002).\n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-09-23T19:06Z and 2023-09-24T09:50Z (average arrival 2023-09-24T02:18Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-09-23T21:04Z and 2023-09-24T12:33Z (average arrival 2023-09-24T04:50Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-22_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047/20230922_060600_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-22_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047/20230922_060600_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-22_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047/20230922_060600_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-22_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047/20230922_060600_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-22_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047/20230922_060600_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-22_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047/Detailed_results_20230922_060600_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-23T13:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-23T16:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-27.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.78", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1508.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1590.23\nAcceleration: -5.66940\nDuration in seconds: 118483.41\nDuration in days: 1.3713358\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -5.67 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 918.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/09/2023 Time: 16:30 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-23T13:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T14:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.77", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1508.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 864.444\nAcceleration: -1.18192\nDuration in seconds: 198999.91\nDuration in days: 2.3032397\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.18 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 629.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/09/2023 Time: 14:52 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T05:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11305.07", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T06:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11305.07", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-09-22T02:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T19:52Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME seen to the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption near AR 3435 (approximately (N08E17). The liftoff can be seen starting around 2023-09-22T01:28Z in SDO AIA 193/304. There is also an M1.2 flare just after the start of the filament eruption from this AR starting at 2023-09-22T02:25Z, followed by post-eruptive loops best seen in SDO AIA 131/193. Brightening can also be seen in this region in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature: sharp amplification of magnetic field to 27nT and increases in solar wind speed from ~300 km/s to ~500 km/s, with subsequent increases in density and temperature. Alternatively, this could be the arrival of 2023-09-22T07:36Z CME or the combined arrival of these two CMEs.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-22T15:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T08:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.52", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-09-22T15:21:41Z\n## Message ID: 20230922-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-09-22T02:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1026 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -31/36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001\n\n2: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-09-22T07:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1508 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 4/28 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO A. The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO A at 2023-09-24T05:44Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-09-24T08:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001, 2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001, and 2023-09-22T07:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis simulation also includes the S-type CME with ID 2023-09-22T07:12:00-CME-001 which is not predicted to impact any NASA missions.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-22T16:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T04:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.09, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.98", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/09/22 02:40Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 07:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 14:10Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 6:30\nPOS Midpoint: 10:55Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.09\nTravel Time: ~6.09 * 8:15 = 50:15\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-09-24T04:55Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1.25 Hours\n - Travel Time: 7.5%" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-22T19:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.68", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes: Based on multi-CME simulation available on NOAA/SWPC homepage issued 2023-09-22T19:11Z combined with G1 Watch at time of submission and below 3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast issued 2023-09-22T22:05Z:\n\n:Product: Geomagnetic Forecast\n:Issued: 2023 Sep 22 2205 UTC\n# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center\n#\nNOAA Ap Index Forecast\nObserved Ap 21 Sep 010\nEstimated Ap 22 Sep 008\nPredicted Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 018-022-015\n\nNOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep\nActive 25/25/35\nMinor storm 35/35/20\nModerate storm 20/20/01\nStrong-Extreme storm 05/05/01\n\nNOAA Kp index forecast 23 Sep - 25 Sep\n Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep 25\n00-03UT 3.00 5.00 4.00 \n03-06UT 2.33 4.33 3.67 \n06-09UT 2.00 3.67 3.33 \n09-12UT 2.33 3.00 3.00 \n12-15UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 \n15-18UT 3.00 3.00 2.33 \n18-21UT 4.00 3.00 2.00 \n21-00UT 5.00 3.33 2.33" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-22T20:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T04:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.7, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.02", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-09-23T12:47:11Z\n## Message ID: 20230923-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001 and 2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230922-AL-002).\n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-09-23T19:06Z and 2023-09-24T09:50Z (average arrival 2023-09-24T02:18Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-09-23T21:04Z and 2023-09-24T12:33Z (average arrival 2023-09-24T04:50Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-22_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047/20230922_060600_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-22_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047/20230922_060600_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-22_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047/20230922_060600_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-22_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047/20230922_060600_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-22_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047/20230922_060600_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-22_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047/Detailed_results_20230922_060600_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA047.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-23T04:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.37", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 1225\nLongitude (deg): 024E\nLatitude (deg): 28N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 38\n\nNotes: Bulk material passing north and east with likely glancing impact. Low confidence.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-23T06:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T20:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.25", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2023 Sep 23 1231 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30923\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Sep 2023, 1230UT\n\nCoronal mass ejections: A wide CME with angular width around 90 degrees was\nfirst seen by LASCO-C2 at 02:24 UTC on 22 September. The CME was related\nto the M1.2 flare from NOAA AR 3435. The CME speed was estimated to be\naround 730 km/s, with the bulk of the material directed to the NE. Since\nthe source is located close to disk center, an impact at Earth can be\nexpected on 24 September(this ICME will probably interact with the one from\n21 September on its way to the Earth)." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-23T23:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T03:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.90", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1026.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1095.22\nAcceleration: -2.84254\nDuration in seconds: 175827.96\nDuration in days: 2.0350459\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.84 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 595.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/09/2023 Time: 03:14 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-23T23:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T17:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.88", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1026.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 602.718\nAcceleration: 0.456234\nDuration in seconds: 227083.75\nDuration in days: 2.6282841\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.46 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 706.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/09/2023 Time: 17:28 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T09:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 61.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.2, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.4, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11305.07", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-24T06:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11305.07", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-09-16T09:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-09-18T12:58Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide, complex, difficult to analyze CME with primary directionality (bulk) to the southwest in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs but containing features also seen to the west, south, and southeast along a discontinuous front. Associated with a large-scale filament eruption taking place on the Earth-facing disk from 2023-09-16T07:00Z to 09:00Z seen best in SDO/GOES 304; filament extends from N30W00 southwest through N10W30 with a minor, more narrow segment extending back east from N10W30 back towards S03W05. Arrival signature: Sudden sharp jump in solar wind parameters with B total reaching 21 nT and speed increasing above 550 km/s. May be indicative of additional coronal hole high speed stream influences (Tarik Salman, LASSOS team) from coronal hole at central meridian on 2023-09-15. Less likely but possible that this is a combined arrival of this CME and the 2023-09-14T23:12Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-16T17:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-19T18:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "29.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.70", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-09-16T17:16:29Z\n## Message ID: 20230916-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-09-16T09:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~523 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 30/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (minor impact) and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2023-10-02T00:00Z and STEREO A at 2023-09-19T14:31Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-09-19T18:40Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230916_160000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-16T17:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-19T07:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.55", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-09-16 16:00\n - Time at C2: 2023-09-16 09:12\n - Radial speed: 523.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N02W30\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 562.90 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-09-19 07:27 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.25 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-16T18:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-19T05:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.92, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.04, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.83", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/09/16 09:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 15:30Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 23:40Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction\nPOS Difference: 8:10\nPOS Midpoint: 19:35Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:25\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.53\nTravel Time: ~6.53 * 10:25 = 68:01\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-09-19T05:11Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 5%" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-16T19:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-19T15:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "26.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.63", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth, Juno)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-09-17T13:42:10Z\n## Message ID: 20230917-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230916-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-09-19T03:46Z and 2023-09-19T18:56Z (average arrival 2023-09-19T11:18Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-09-19T07:38Z and 2023-09-19T23:00Z (average arrival 2023-09-19T15:15Z) for 95% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 79% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045/20230916_150400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045/20230916_150400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045/20230916_150400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045/20230916_150400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045/20230916_150400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045/Detailed_results_20230916_150400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045.txt\n\nThis CME event (2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have a minor impact at Juno at 2023-10-02T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230916-AL-002)." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-17T02:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-18T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.72", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):1103\nLongitude (deg):20\nLatitude (deg):4\nHalf-angular width (deg):42\n\nNotes:A significant Earth-directed asymmetric nearly full halo CME was observed on 16-Sep after the eruption of a large 30 degree long solar filament spanning from N25W00 to N10W27 and erupting during the interval 16/0400-0800UT. This broad filament had a wispy structure which may indicate lower density/mass and\nno Hyder flare was observed during the filament eruption. The resulting halo CME was visible in LASCO C2 from 16/0912UT and C3 16/1018UT. Perhaps the CME appears a bit faint. Event modelling shows an impact to the Earth's magnetosphere at 18/2000UT +/- 12 hrs. Due to closeness to equinox going for a Kp of 6." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-17T06:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-19T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.92", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 16/1415UTC\nRadial velocity (km/s): 635km/s\nLongitude (deg): 12W\nLatitude (deg): 03S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Duty forecaster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-17T20:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-19T18:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "29.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.63", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 523.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 578.637\nAcceleration: -0.491991\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 294023.12\nDuration in days: 3.4030454\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.49 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 434.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/09/2023 Time: 18:52 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-17T20:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-19T10:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.60", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 523.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 329.589\nAcceleration: 1.77853\nDuration in seconds: 263845.72\nDuration in days: 3.0537699\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.78 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 798.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/09/2023 Time: 10:29 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-18T03:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-19T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "9.82", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2023-09-19T13:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nKp Range: 4-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-18T10:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-19T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "2.50", "predictionNote" : "\"SIDC URSIGRAM 30917\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Sep 2023, 1303UT\nSIDC FORECAST\n\n...Coronal mass ejections: The halo coronal mass ejection (CME) related to the large filament eruption near the disc centre on Sept 16th, which was first observed by SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 09:12 UTC has now been analysed. While the bulk of the CME travels westward, a flank/glancing blow is expected to reach Earth on Sept 19th. No new Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.\n\n\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30918\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Sep 2023, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\n\n...Solar wind: The solar wind data at Earth shows the arrival of an ICME, corresponding to the CME on 14 September. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 11 nT with Bz down to -7 nT and solar wind speeds around 430 km/s.\nAlthough the effects of this ICME are anticipated to diminish within the next 24 hours, another ICME event, corresponding to the CME from 16 September, is predicted to impact Earth on 19 September, potentially with greater intensity.\"" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-19T10:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 79.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.85714, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.85714, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11455.97", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-19T11:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11455.97", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-09-14T07:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-09-14T07:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-09-17T01:53Z", "maxKP" : 4.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright CME NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 that may be associated with a faint partial to full halo. The source is a filament eruption seen between AR's 13425 & 13423 stretching from ~N22W40 to ~N26W55. Eruption begins ~2023-09-14T06:40Z in SDO/AIA 304 followed by brightening at the foot points of the source location. Associated dimming, minor EUV wave, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcade are visible in most SDO/AIA wavelengths including 193, 171, 211, and 131. The visible dimming is seen primarily north of the filament location with the minor EUV wave primarily seen along the W/NW limb in SDO/AIA 211. An M-class flare is associated with the post-eruptive arcade occurring between AR's 13425 & 13423. Arrival signature is characterized by a relatively modest jump in ion density and temperature, as well as in magnetic field, with B total reaching 8nT. Preceded by a relatively gradual increase in solar wind speed from 400 to 480 km/s.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-14T14:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-16T13:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.27", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 915.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 981.221\nAcceleration: -2.27118\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 196477.70\nDuration in days: 2.2740474\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.27 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 535.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/09/2023 Time: 13:58 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-14T16:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-16T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.50", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, OSIRIS-REx, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-09-14T16:23:58Z\n## Message ID: 20230914-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-09-14T07:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~915 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 40/17 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-09-14T07:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (minor impact), Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and OSIRIS-REx (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2023-09-28T02:00Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-09-15T09:03Z, STEREO A at 2023-09-16T19:22Z, and the flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-09-16T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-09-16T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-09-14T07:24:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230914_112100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230914_112100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230914_112100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230914_112100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230914_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230914_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230914_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230914_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230914_112100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230914_112100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230914_112100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-09-14T07:24:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.4 flare with ID 2023-09-14T06:40:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-09-14T07:45Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-14T16:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-17T04:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.86, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 14.68, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.30", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/09/14 07:25Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 13:40Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 22:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPOS Difference: 8:20\nPOS Midpoint: 17:50Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:25\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.6\nTravel Time: ~6.6 * 10:25 = 68:42\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-09-17T04:07Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours\n - Travel Time: 5%" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-14T16:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-16T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.07", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-09-14T11:39Z (and 2023-09-14T13:03Z)\nRadial velocity (km/s): 830 (and 559)\nLongitude (deg): 017W (and 048W)\nLatitude (deg): 20N (and 18N)\nHalf-angular width (deg): 32 (and 32)\n\nNotes: Difficult analysis, fitted as two CME lobes to St A COR2 and Lasco C3, as possibly two linked events (the M1.4 flare itself was two-stage). Perhaps visible in e.g. AIA304 at 14/06:51Z and 14/07:18Z. The above is the very slightly later and apparently more south and west-directed helix. (Apparent) shock not modelled. MOSWOC Enlil has a relatively underdone grasp of antecedent solar wind conditions, and the CME arrival was consequently brought forward from 16/22:00UTC to 16/18:00UTC.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-14T17:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-16T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.78", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-14T17:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-16T16:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.72", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-09-14 11:21\n - Time at C2: 2023-09-14 07:24\n - Radial speed: 915.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 33 deg\n - Eruption location: N17W40\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 680.50 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-09-16 16:38 (i.e. predicted transit time: 57.23 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-14T18:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-17T00:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.25", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 915.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 542.445\nAcceleration: 0.782040\nDuration in seconds: 234837.03\nDuration in days: 2.7180212\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.78 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 726.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/09/2023 Time: 00:37 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-15T00:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-16T14:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.6, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.37", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-09-15T12:35:25Z\n## Message ID: 20230915-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-09-14T07:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230914-AL-001).\n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-09-16T04:21Z and 2023-09-16T22:23Z (average arrival 2023-09-16T14:44Z) for 33% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally, the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-09-16T07:02Z and 2023-09-16T19:53Z (average arrival 2023-09-16T14:15Z) for 20% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 73% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-14_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA044/20230914_072400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA044_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-14_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA044/20230914_072400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA044_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-14_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA044/20230914_072400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA044_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-14_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA044/20230914_072400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA044_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-14_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA044/20230914_072400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA044_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes: This CME event is also predicted to have a glancing blow at OSIRIS-REx at 2023-09-16T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) and an impact at Parker Solar Probe at 2023-09-15T09:03Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230914-AL-001).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-14_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA044/Detailed_results_20230914_072400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA044.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-15T15:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-16T21:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.38", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2023 Sep 15 1231 UTC\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30915\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Sep 2023, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 15 Sep 2023 10CM FLUX: 149 / AP: 013 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 16 Sep 2023 10CM FLUX: 149 / AP: 018 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 17 Sep 2023 10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 015\n\n... A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph data from 07:30 UTC on Sept 14th. The CME is associated with a GOES M1.4 flare and a filament eruption, that occurred in the northwestern quadrant of the Sun from around 06:26 UTC on September 14th. The CME is directed to the north-west and is estimated to give a glancing blow to Earth's environment either late on Sept 16 or early on Sept 17. ..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-16T19:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 36.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.16667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11491.05", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-16T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11491.05", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-09-11T15:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-09-11T15:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-09-14T13:22Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "A very faint CME seen mainly in SOHO C3. Its source might be an eruption of very minor filament seen in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2023-09-11T13:57Z mostly as dimming West of Active Region 13430. Filament stretches from S12W14 to S29E01. There is a post-eruptive brightening in SDO AIA 304 and dimming in SDO AIA 193. The arrival signature is characterized by a sheath region possibly starting at 2023-09-14T13:22Z and ejecta/CME core possibly starting by 2023-09-14T16:29Z and lasting until approximately 2023-09-14T21:12Z. The boundaries are identified mostly via magnetic field measurements and the ejecta features rotations of the non-radial components.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-11T20:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-14T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.70", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/26869/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-09-11T15:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=419.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2023-09-11T23:47Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-09-14T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-13T05:10Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-14T18:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-14T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11551.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-14T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11551.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-09-01T23:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-09-01T23:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-09-05T14:38Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME associated with a flare and filament eruption in the SE region S21E44, with eruption starting after 22:14Z. The filament is best seen erupting in 304 (AIA/SUVI) imagery. Arrival Signature: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 5nT to 9nT, reaching a maximum near 10nT. Accompanied by an increase in speed from 380 km/s at 2023-09-05T14:38Z to ~450 km/s at 15:11Z with subsequent increases in density and temperature. This shock likely corresponds to the arrival of CME 2023-09-01T23:12Z and is also observed at STEREO A starting around 2023-09-05T10:50Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-09-02T13:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-05T12:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.73", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/26730/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-09-01T23:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-44.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=581.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2023-09-02T04:39Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-09-05T12:30Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-05T18:00Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-04T01:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-05T08:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-05T12:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11766.30", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-09-05T12:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-11766.30", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-08-05T07:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T11:07Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide CME seen W and S in SOHO and STEREO A associated with long duration M1.6-class solar flare/filament eruption near S10W68. Faint shock presents as a full halo with preference towards the west. Around 2023-08-05T06:45Z, a dark filament near the western portion of the disk is seen lifting off, becoming a bright structure as it leaves the disk towards the west. A somewhat unclear arrival signature, affected by low quality solar wind data from both DSCOVR and ACE during this time period. Arrival signature: initial increase in B_total from 7.4 nT to 10.5 nT, followed by another increase to 13.6 nT at 11:54Z. The signature looks like a messy sheath arrival and it is possible that there is a flux rope/magnetic cloud at ~2023-08-08T01Z but this could be another CME arrival (LASSOS team). The current arrival may also have been observed at STEREO A around 2023-08-07T08:46Z. Alternatively, this could be the combined arrival of 2023-08-04T04:17Z and 2023-08-04T04:49Z CMEs.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-05T11:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-08T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.92", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\n:Product: Forecast Discussion\n:Issued: 2023 Aug 05 1230 UTC\n# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center\n#\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3386 (N11W69, Dhi/beta)\nproduced a long-duration M1.6 flare at 05/0718 UTC with Type-II radio\nemissions (572 km/s) and an associated CME visible in LASCO C2 beginning\nat 05/0700 UTC. An M2.1 flare was observed at 05/0936 UTC from beyond\nthe SW limb, in the vicinity of old Region 3380. Minor development was\nobserved in Regions 3386 and 3392 (N10W13, Dao/beta-gamma) while the\nremaining regions were mostly stable.\n\nThe CME associated with the M1.6 flare at 05/0718 UTC from Region 3386\nis expected to result in a glancing-blow arrival early on 08 Aug." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-05T14:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.40", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-08-05T14:43:55Z\n## Message ID: 20230805-AL-007\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-08-05T07:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1044 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 63/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx (minor impact) and Parker Solar Probe (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-08T21:00Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2023-08-07T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-08-07T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: Simulation and subsequent modeling assumes a source longitude for the CME of 63 degrees; any eastward deflection inherent in the CME may make for a stronger event at Earth than modeled.\n\nThis CME event (2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.6 flare from Active Region 11386 (N11W65) with ID 2023-08-05T06:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-08-05T07:20Z, SEP at STEREO A with ID 2023-08-05T10:00:00-SEP-001, SEP at SOHO with IDs 2023-08-05T10:19:00-SEP-001 and 2023-08-05T10:47:00-SEP-001, and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2023-08-05T11:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20230805-AL-002, 20230805-AL-003, 20230805-AL-006.)\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-05T22:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-08T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.12", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-05T22:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-08T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.52", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2023 Aug 05 1652 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 07:12 UTC today. This partial halo CME is associated with a GOES M1.6 flare from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 and the filament eruption below the same AR region. This halo CME has a projected angular width of about 120 degrees and a projected speed of about 1000 km/s. Earth directed component of CME has been identified. Further analysis is on-going to estimate the arrival time of potential glancing blow of this CME.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-06T13:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T07:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.42", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1044.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1113.70\nAcceleration: -2.93800\nDuration in seconds: 175552.92\nDuration in days: 2.0318625\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.94 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 597.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 07/08/2023 Time: 07:57 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-06T13:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T22:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.38", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1044.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 612.492\nAcceleration: 0.401586\nDuration in seconds: 228220.13\nDuration in days: 2.6414366\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.40 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 704.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 07/08/2023 Time: 22:35 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-06T19:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.28", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 1020\nLongitude (deg): 047W\nLatitude (deg): 10S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 47\n\nNotes: Glancing impact most likely, but may also arrive with, or shortly after CME on 07 Aug to give increased enhancement. \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T22:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 61.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12465.82", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12465.82", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-08-04T04:49Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T01:15Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Second of two CMEs seen to the north and west in SOHO/STEREO A imagery starting around 2023-08-04T04:17Z which is inferred to be in association with a long duration M1.9-class solar flare near the vicinity of Active Region 3386 (N12W46) due to the complex, sympathetic eruptive signature containing multiple areas of dimming. The CME front seen first near 2023-08-04T04:49Z appears to be embedded within the first, and is directed more westerly. Please see DONKI entry for additional details on the event signature. Arrival signature: Likely an arrival of a flux rope at L1, associated with an increase of B total to over 10nT, with rotation of magnetic field components. Confirmed by the LASSOS team.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-04T17:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T07:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.07", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a4b1\nEjecta settings d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrzqs\ncormode: single\n\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-08-04T16:48:15Z\n## Message ID: 20230804-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-08-04T04:17Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~865 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 47/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-08-04T04:49Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~543 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 45/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A. The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-07T18:34Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-08-06T05:43Z, and STEREO A at 2023-08-07T03:50Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-08-07T07:17Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001, 2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThese CME events (2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001 and 2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001) are likely associated with the M1.9 flare from Active Region 13386 (N12W46) with ID 2023-08-04T03:38:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-08-04T04:24Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-04T21:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T06:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.7, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.92", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-08-05T16:16:25Z ## Message ID: 20230805-AL-008 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001 and 2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230804-AL-002).\n\n### Notification information (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\nSTEREO A between about 2023-08-06T17:52Z and 2023-08-07T07:49Z (average arrival 2023-08-07T02:16Z) for 95% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-08-06T21:30Z and 2023-08-07T13:36Z (average arrival 2023-08-07T06:15Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 90% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes: These CME events (2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001 and 2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001) are also predicted to have a glancing blow at OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-07T18:34Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2023-08-06T05:43Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230804-AL-002). \n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/Detailed_results_20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-05T07:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T13:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.47", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 543.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 599.177\nAcceleration: -0.573764\nDuration in seconds: 291457.09\nDuration in days: 3.3733459\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.57 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 431.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 07/08/2023 Time: 13:46 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-05T07:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T06:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.43", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 543.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 340.449\nAcceleration: 1.73350\nDuration in seconds: 263971.02\nDuration in days: 3.0552202\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.73 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 798.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 07/08/2023 Time: 06:08 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T08:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12475.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T06:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12475.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-08-04T04:17Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T01:15Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "First of two CMEs seen to the N and W in SOHO/STEREO A imagery in association with a long duration M1.9-class flare near the vicinity of AR13386 (N12W46) and a complex, sympathetic eruptive signature before/after the flare. This CME is directed more northward than the latter CME, appearing bulbous with a protruding leading edge and a wide/faint shock seen predominantly to the N and NE. Arrival signature: Likely an arrival of a flux rope at L1, associated with an increase of B total to over 10nT, with rotation of magnetic field components. Confirmed by the LASSOS team.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-04T17:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T07:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.10", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a4b1\nEjecta settings d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrzqs\ncormode: single\n\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-08-04T16:48:15Z\n## Message ID: 20230804-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-08-04T04:17Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~865 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 47/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-08-04T04:49Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~543 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 45/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A. The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-07T18:34Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-08-06T05:43Z, and STEREO A at 2023-08-07T03:50Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-08-07T07:17Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001, 2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230804_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThese CME events (2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001 and 2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001) are likely associated with the M1.9 flare from Active Region 13386 (N12W46) with ID 2023-08-04T03:38:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-08-04T04:24Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-04T17:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-06T12:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.71, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.15, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.48", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/08/04 04:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 09:10Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 16:50Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction\nPOS Difference: 7:40\nPOS Midpoint: 13:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:50\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.35\nTravel Time: ~6.35 * 8:50 = 56:04\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-08-06T12:14Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours\n - Travel Time: 5%" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-04T21:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T06:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.7, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.92", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-08-05T16:16:25Z ## Message ID: 20230805-AL-008 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001 and 2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230804-AL-002).\n\n### Notification information (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\nSTEREO A between about 2023-08-06T17:52Z and 2023-08-07T07:49Z (average arrival 2023-08-07T02:16Z) for 95% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-08-06T21:30Z and 2023-08-07T13:36Z (average arrival 2023-08-07T06:15Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 90% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes: These CME events (2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001 and 2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001) are also predicted to have a glancing blow at OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-07T18:34Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2023-08-06T05:43Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230804-AL-002). \n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-04_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038/Detailed_results_20230804_073300_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA038.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-04T21:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.67", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-04T22:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.08", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-08-04T10:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 605\nLongitude (deg): 40W\nLatitude (deg): 20N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 55\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Alister McHardy" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-05T07:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-06T14:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.60", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 865.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 929.871\nAcceleration: -2.02355\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 209231.61\nDuration in days: 2.4216622\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.02 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 506.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 06/08/2023 Time: 14:24 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-05T07:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-06T22:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.58", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 865.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 515.295\nAcceleration: 0.922508\nDuration in seconds: 240035.25\nDuration in days: 2.7781857\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.92 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 736.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 06/08/2023 Time: 22:57 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T01:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12475.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-07T06:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12475.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-08-02T09:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-08-02T09:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-08-05T02:10Z", "maxKP" : 6.67, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is seen as a halo CME with a bulk portion seen more predominantly to the west in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The more full halo portion is fairly faint in coronagraph imagery. The source of this CME is an S-shaped filament eruption stretching from roughly N10 to S15. There is clear dimming associated with this source as seen in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2023-08-02T08:00Z. This dimming stretches from W10 to W30 within the N10 to S15 latitudes. Arrival signature: clear magnetic field enhancement from 10 to 19 nT and later to about 23 nT along sharp rises in ACE/DSCOVR density, velocity, and temperature parameters.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-02T11:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-05T04:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.93", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nEstimate issued Wed Aug 2 23:14:23 UTC 2023\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-08-02T09:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230802-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-08-04T19:52Z and 2023-08-05T05:27Z (average arrival 2023-08-05T00:34Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-08-04T23:37Z and 2023-08-05T09:13Z (average arrival 2023-08-05T04:21Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 97% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036/20230802_091200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036/20230802_091200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036/20230802_091200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036/20230802_091200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036/20230802_091200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036/20230802_091200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nBased on previous simulation it is estimated that this CME may also affect OSIRIS-REx and Parker Solar Probe, with the leading edge of the CME predicted to reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-05T17:38Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2023-08-04T07:22Z (plus minus 7 hours) (see notification 20230802-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-08-02_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036/Detailed_results_20230802_091200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA036.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-02T12:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-05T13:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.27", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2023 Aug 02 1254 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30802\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Aug 2023, 1253UT\nSIDC FORECAST \nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 02 Aug 2023 10CM FLUX: 175 / AP: 016\nPREDICTIONS FOR 03 Aug 2023 10CM FLUX: 174 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 04 Aug 2023 10CM FLUX: 174 / AP: 007\n\nSolar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was moderate\nduring the last 24 hours, with four M-class flares, all produced by NOAA\nActive Region (AR) 3380. The strongest reported flare was two GOES M1.4\nflares which peaked at 14:09 UTC today. During the flare, the source region\n(AR 3380) of the flare had beta-delta configuration of its photospheric\nmagnetic field. Several C-class flares ranging from C3 to C9 were also\nproduced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C9-class flare was produced\nNOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. For the next 24 hours, we are expecting\nseveral C-class flares and one or more M-class flare mainly from NOAA AR\n3380. There are very likely a small chance of an X-flare.\n\nCoronal mass ejections: Type IV solar radio burst occurred on Aug 02 around\n08:00 UTC. This radio burst was associated with the M-class flare from\nNOAA-AR 3380, located near to the west limb. This has been associate with a\ncoronal mass ejection potentially with an Earth directed component. Future\nanalysis is ongoing to estimated the speed and potentially the arrival time\nto Earth as well as the impact. No other Earth directed component of\nCoronal mass ejection (CME) has been identified in the available\ncoronograph imagery.\n\nCoronal holes: An equatorial (negative polarity) coronal hole has reached\nthe central meridian on Aug 01. The solar wind from this coronal hole is\nexpected to enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on 3 and 4 Aug.\n\nSolar wind: Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, ranging\nfrom 370 km/s to 430 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -8\nand 10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 3 nT to 12 nT.\nThis is a sign of the expected coronal mass ejection (CME) which was\nobserved on 29 Jul. The solar wind speed may increase if any remnants from\nthose CME arrive at Earth in the coming 24 hours. Solar wind enhancements\nmay occur tomorrow due to the fast solar wind from the coronal which\ncrossed the central meridian on Aug 01.\n\nGeomagnetism: During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to\nunsettled. NOAA reported Kp 1 to 3 and K BEL reported 4 for a shorter\nintervals. This is a sign of the expected coronal mass ejection (CME) which\nwas observed on 29 Jul. The geomagnetic condition may increase to unsettled\nor active conditions if any remnants from those CME arrive at Earth in the\ncoming 24 hours.\n\n\nProton flux levels: The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in\nthe last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the\nnext 24 hours.\n\nElectron fluxes at GEO: The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16\nsatellite, reached above the threshold level at 14:00 and dropped below the\n17:40 UTC in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at\nnormal level. It is that this parameter to remain below the threshold level\nin the coming 24 hours." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-02T16:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-05T03:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.70", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-08-02T16:28:15Z\n## Message ID: 20230802-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-08-02T09:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~759 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 26/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-08-02T09:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-05T17:38Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-08-04T07:22Z, and STEREO A at 2023-08-05T00:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-08-05T03:50Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-08-02T09:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230802_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230802_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230802_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230802_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230802_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230802_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230802_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230802_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-02T18:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-06T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.00", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-08-02T21:22Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 480\nLongitude (deg): 17W\nLatitude (deg): 09N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 66\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Alister McHardy" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-02T20:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-04T22:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.17", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-08-02 13:43\n - Time at C2: 2023-08-02 09:12\n - Radial speed: 759.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 42 deg\n - Eruption location: S04W26\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 633.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-08-04 22:57 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.77 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-02T22:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-04T21:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.59, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.21, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.77", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/08/02 09:05Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 13:30Z; 20Rsun; WNW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 17:10Z; 20Rsun; ESE Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:40\nPOS Midpoint: 15:20Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.62\nTravel Time: ~9.62 * 6:15 = 60:08\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-08-04T21:13Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 10%" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-05T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.6, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.6, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12522.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-05T04:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12522.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-07-31T23:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-07-31T23:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-08-04T06:52Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is first seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-07-31T23:36Z in both white light and difference imagery. The source of this CME is likely the northern portion (from N15 to S10) of a filament which erupted at central meridian and seems to have deflected to the NE as seen in UV imagery. The northern portion of the filament seems to lift off at about 2023-07-31T17:30Z, as seen in SDO AIA 304 (though, it is difficult to discern exact time due to having only a face-on view of the solar disk). This CME overlaps with a prior CME which likely has a source on the far side of the solar disk. Arrival signature: Rapid magnetic field enhancement from 10 nT to 15-16 nT starting around 2023-08-04T06:52Z with simultaneous increases in solar wind velocity and temperature parameters. Possibly merged with 2023-07-31T23:12Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-01T19:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-04T05:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.88", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-08-01T19:59:32Z\n## Message ID: 20230801-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-07-31T23:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~636 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -23/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-07-31T23:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-08-01T00:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~564 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -32/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-08-01T00:12:00-CME-001\n\n3: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-07-31T23:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~429 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 4/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-07-31T23:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-05T02:42Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-08-03T14:36Z, and STEREO A at 2023-08-04T00:01Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-08-04T05:27Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-07-31T23:36:00-CME-001, 2023-08-01T00:12:00-CME-001, 2023-07-31T23:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-03T18:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-04T07:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.28", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-08-03T19:39:57Z\n## Message ID: 20230803-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2023-07-31T23:36:00-CME-001, 2023-08-01T00:12:00-CME-001, and 2023-07-31T23:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230801-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO A between about 2023-08-03T19:10Z and 2023-08-04T10:35Z (average arrival 2023-08-04T01:32Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-08-04T00:53Z and 2023-08-04T16:30Z (average arrival 2023-08-04T07:03Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 87% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-31_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037/20230731_233600_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-31_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037/20230731_233600_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-31_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037/20230731_233600_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-31_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037/20230731_233600_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-31_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037/20230731_233600_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nPrevious simulation of these CMEs (see notification 20230801-AL-002) estimated that the CMEs may also affect OSIRIS-REx and Parker Solar Probe, with the leading edge of the CMEs reaching OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-05T02:42Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2023-08-03T14:36Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-31_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037/Detailed_results_20230731_233600_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-04T06:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12542.07", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-04T06:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12542.07", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-07-31T23:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-07-31T23:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-08-04T06:52Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME seen as a partial halo to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This feature overlaps multiple CME fronts to the SW. The source appears to be the southern portion of a large North-South s-shaped filament eruption along the central meridian of the Earth-facing disk. The southern portion of this filament appears to potentially lift off at about 2023-07-31T19:05Z roughly centered around S22E02. The northern portion of the filament eruption may be associated with another CME feature seen in the coronagraphs to the East. Arrival signature: Rapid magnetic field enhancement from 10 nT to 15-16 nT starting around 2023-08-04T06:52Z with simultaneous increases in solar wind velocity and temperature parameters. Possibly merged with 2023-07-31T23:36Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-01T19:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-04T05:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.88", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-08-01T19:59:32Z\n## Message ID: 20230801-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-07-31T23:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~636 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -23/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-07-31T23:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-08-01T00:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~564 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -32/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-08-01T00:12:00-CME-001\n\n3: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-07-31T23:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~429 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 4/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-07-31T23:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-05T02:42Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-08-03T14:36Z, and STEREO A at 2023-08-04T00:01Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-08-04T05:27Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-07-31T23:36:00-CME-001, 2023-08-01T00:12:00-CME-001, 2023-07-31T23:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-08-03T18:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-04T07:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.28", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-08-03T19:39:57Z\n## Message ID: 20230803-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2023-07-31T23:36:00-CME-001, 2023-08-01T00:12:00-CME-001, and 2023-07-31T23:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230801-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO A between about 2023-08-03T19:10Z and 2023-08-04T10:35Z (average arrival 2023-08-04T01:32Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-08-04T00:53Z and 2023-08-04T16:30Z (average arrival 2023-08-04T07:03Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 87% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-31_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037/20230731_233600_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-31_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037/20230731_233600_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-31_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037/20230731_233600_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-31_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037/20230731_233600_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-31_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037/20230731_233600_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nPrevious simulation of these CMEs (see notification 20230801-AL-002) estimated that the CMEs may also affect OSIRIS-REx and Parker Solar Probe, with the leading edge of the CMEs reaching OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-05T02:42Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2023-08-03T14:36Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-31_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037/Detailed_results_20230731_233600_ncmes3_sims24_LAHAINA037.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-04T06:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12542.07", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-04T06:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12542.07", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-07-28T22:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-07-28T22:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-08-01T10:08Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Asymmetric partial halo CME seen directed primarily towards the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption centered around N25E25 with liftoff starting around 2023-07-28T21:10Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming can be seen in SDO AIA 193. This eruption is also seen in STEREO A EUV and COR2 imagery after a data gap from 2023-07-28T20:05Z to 2023-07-29T01:05Z. Arrival signature: Two consecutive spikes of B_total to >11nT separated by 5 hours, the second one (at ~16Z) likely marking the start of the flux rope.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-29T13:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-01T19:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.65", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2023 Jul 29 1249 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was automatically detected by CACTus as launched yesterday 15:48 UTC. It has an estimated speed of 500 km/s and is associated with an M4 flare that took place on the west solar limb. There is a chance of directly affecting Earth's environment, otherwise, a glancing blow is to be expected in the first half of 1 Aug.\nAnother partial halo CME can be seen in LASCO-C2 images as launched yesterday 23:12 UTC. This is associated with a large filament eruption that took place at the NE of the solar disk. This second CME is likely to arrive at Earth's environment at the same time as the first as it has a similar speed and was launched with only a few hours difference. Hence, the two CME are expected to be detected as one event at L1.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-29T13:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-31T23:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.25", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-29T13:53:48Z\n## Message ID: 20230729-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-07-28T22:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~589 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -27/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-07-28T22:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-01T13:41Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-31T03:54Z, and STEREO A at 2023-07-31T19:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-07-31T23:41Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-07-28T22:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230729_043800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230729_043800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230729_043800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230729_043800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230729_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230729_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230729_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230729_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-29T15:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-01T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.38", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-07-29T05:50Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 505\nLongitude (deg): E018\nLatitude (deg): S06\nHalf-angular width (deg): 50\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Richard Stone and Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-29T16:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-01T02:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.18, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 15.54, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.50", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/07/28 22:30Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 04:30Z; 20Rsun; WSW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 08:20Z; 20Rsun; ENE Direction\nPOS Difference: 3:50\nPOS Midpoint: 06:25Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:55\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.58\nTravel Time: ~9.58 * 7:55 = 75:52\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-08-01T02:22Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1 Hour\n - Travel Time: 15%" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-29T20:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-01T02:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.70", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-29T20:25:37Z ## Message ID: 20230729-AL-006 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-07-28T22:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230729-AL-003). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A between about 2023-07-31T15:59Z and 2023-08-01T05:26Z (average arrival 2023-07-31T21:51Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-07-31T20:28Z and 2023-08-01T10:36Z (average arrival 2023-08-01T02:48Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 88% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA035/20230728_223600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA035_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA035/20230728_223600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA035_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA035/20230728_223600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA035_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA035/20230728_223600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA035_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA035/20230728_223600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA035_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-07-28T22:36:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-01T13:41Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-31T03:54Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230729-AL-003).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA035/Detailed_results_20230728_223600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA035.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-30T08:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-01T03:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.13", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 589.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 646.419\nAcceleration: -0.765515\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 278597.05\nDuration in days: 3.2245029\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.77 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 433.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/08/2023 Time: 03:59 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-30T08:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-31T22:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.12", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 589.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 365.427\nAcceleration: 1.62757\nDuration in seconds: 260455.42\nDuration in days: 3.0145303\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.63 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 789.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/07/2023 Time: 22:56 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-30T08:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-31T18:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.80", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-07-29 04:38\n - Time at C2: 2023-07-28 22:36\n - Radial speed: 589.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 42 deg\n - Eruption location: S03E27\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 582.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-07-31 18:15 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.65 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-30T22:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-01T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.13", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-31T07:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-01T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.38", "predictionNote" : "Enter predicted CME shock arrival time:2023-08-01T02:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive:70%\nKp Range:4-6" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-01T03:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 76.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.57143, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.71429, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12610.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-08-01T02:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12610.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-07-23T15:05:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-07-23T15:05Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-07-25T21:54Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Halo CME with shock front preceding the brighter bulk. Its source is likely an eruption in AR3376 (N23W34) starting after 2023-07-23T14:00Z, likely associated with the C5.2 class flare from AR 3376 (N23W34) peaking at 2023-07-23T14:57Z. There also was a C7.4 class flare from AR 3372 on the NW limb at the time that has to be considered. Arrival signature: Interplanetary shock characterized by rapid magnetic field enhancement from 6 nT to 17 nT, rapid velocity increase from ~390 km/s to 550 km/s, and accompanying density increase. Flux rope may have started closer to 2023-07-26T03:44Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-23T19:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-26T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.70", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-23T19:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-26T05:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.57", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-23T19:20:43Z\n## Message ID: 20230723-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-07-23T15:05Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1022 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 24/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-07-23T15:05:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-07-26T19:46Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-25T02:49Z, and STEREO A at 2023-07-26T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-07-26T05:31Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-07-23T15:05:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230723_181200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230723_181200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230723_181200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230723_181200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230723_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230723_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230723_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230723_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-07-23T15:05:00-CME-001) may be associated with C5.2 flare east of AR 13376 (N23W33) with ID 2023-07-23T14:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-07-23T14:57Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-23T22:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-27T01:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.56, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.53, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.18", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/07/23 14:45Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 21:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 01:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:00\nPOS Midpoint: 23:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:55\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.29\nTravel Time: ~9.29 * 8:55 = 82:48\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-07-27T01:33Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours\n - Travel Time: 15%" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-23T23:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-25T21:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.87", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-07-23 17:59\n - Time at C2: 2023-07-23 15:05\n - Radial speed: 1028.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N11W15\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 714.40 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-07-25 21:26 (i.e. predicted transit time: 54.35 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-24T00:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-27T00:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "26.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.60", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-07-23T19:33Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 735\nLongitude (deg): 030W\nLatitude (deg): 25N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 33 \n\nNotes: CME seen heading N and W during UTC evening of 23 July. Partly obscured by occulting mirror mount on C3. Glancing blow in deterministic run, interacts with - and is slowed by - the CIR in advance of (presumably) CH28. Main CME crosses 1AU 26/1200UTC, but Earth only sees side lobe.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-24T07:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-25T16:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.28", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1028.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1097.27\nAcceleration: -2.85310\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 178586.54\nDuration in days: 2.0669738\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.85 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 587.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/07/2023 Time: 16:41 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-24T07:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-26T06:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.27", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1028.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 603.804\nAcceleration: 0.450187\nDuration in seconds: 229545.25\nDuration in days: 2.6567737\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.45 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 707.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/07/2023 Time: 06:50 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-24T16:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-26T03:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 54.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.27", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-24T22:17:03Z\n## Message ID: 20230724-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-07-23T15:05:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230723-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A between about 2023-07-25T19:14Z and 2023-07-26T02:33Z (average arrival 2023-07-26T00:05Z) for 41% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-07-25T21:16Z and 2023-07-26T09:45Z (average arrival 2023-07-26T03:37Z) for 54% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 66% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-24_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA034/20230723_150500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA034_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-24_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA034/20230723_150500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA034_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-24_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA034/20230723_150500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA034_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-24_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA034/20230723_150500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA034_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-24_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA034/20230723_150500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA034_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-07-23T15:05:00-CME-001) is also predicted to affect OSIRIS-REx at 2023-07-26T19:46Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-25T02:49Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230723-AL-001). \n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-24_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA034/Detailed_results_20230723_150500_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA034.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-25T11:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-26T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "10.55", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2023 Jul 25 1117 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO2/SOHO data as launched at 23 Jul 15:05 UTC. The speed is estimated to be 1000 km/s and is expected to deliver a glancing blow to the Earth's environment around 26 Jul 20:00 UTC." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-26T10:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 41.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.2, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.8, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12767.03", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-26T06:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12767.03", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-07-18T20:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-07-18T20:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-07-21T19:25Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source of this NE CME is likely an eruption and M1.4 flare from AR 3376 (N27E35) starting ~2023-07-18T19:25Z as seen in SDO AIA. This event partially overlaps with CME 2023-07-18T20:36Z. Arrival signature: from Tarik Mohammad (LASSOS team) a well-defined shock (increase in magnetic field strength, proton density, and bulk speed). A possible sheath region following the shock (enhancements in all the parameters). The possible ICME ejecta start is ~2023-07-21T22:20Z: rotations in both B_y (positive to negative) and B_z (negative to positive) and a sharp decrease in proton density and decrease in bulk speed and temperature. Possibly flank CME encounter since the components (specially B_x and B_y) remain constant. The end of the ICME ejecta is difficult to determine as we have a trailing high-speed stream. The possible end is around 2023-07-22T06:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-19T15:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-21T14:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.23", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30719\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jul 2023, 1246UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 021 PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 014\n\n\nCoronal mass ejections: ... A CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from\n20:12 UTC on July 18 to the north east with a simultaneous back sided CME to the north west..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-19T15:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-21T12:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.20", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-19T18:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-21T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.25", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 1200\nLongitude (deg): 31E\nLatitude (deg): 29N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 34\n\nNotes: Difficult fit, with very few STEREO images. Low confidence.\nSpace weather advisor: YF" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-19T22:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-21T09:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.52, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.19, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.03", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/07/18 20:10Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 00:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction; Note: CH HSS correction\nPlane of Sky 2: 05:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction\nPOS Difference: 4:40\nPOS Midpoint: 03:00Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:50\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.94\nTravel Time: ~8.94 * 6:50 = 61:05\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-07-21T09:15Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours\n - Travel Time: 15%" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-21T10:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12865.52", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-21T10:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12865.52", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-07-17T23:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-07-20T16:07Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Halo CME seen primarily to the southwest in association with two separate M5.0+ class solar flares and a strong eruption from Active Region 3633 (S25W73). The eruption is proceeded by another eruption which is impressive in itself; the main eruption starting around 23:18Z as seen in SDO 131 imagery is characterized by a very large scale brightening near Active Region 3363 with rising plasma along the southeastern portion of the active region, widely and quickly moving and opening magnetic field lines seen in SDO 193/171, and a strong post-eruptive arcade signature characterized by intense, regional brightening along the southwest limb in SDO 131. Associated with SEP events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. Arrival signature: A jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 440 km/s, accompanied by a jump in B total to just under 12 nT, an increase in density and rotation of magnetic field components.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-18T03:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-19T18:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.87", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-18T03:15:27Z\n## Message ID: 20230718-AL-012\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-07-17T23:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1388 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 53 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 32/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-07-20T04:14Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-19T00:08Z, and STEREO A at 2023-07-19T16:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-07-19T18:28Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M5.0 flare with ID 2023-07-17T23:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-07-17T23:33Z (see notifications 20230717-AL-004 and 20230718-AL-001) and M5.7 flare with ID 2023-07-17T23:37:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-07-18T00:06Z (see notifications 20230717-AL-005 and 20230718-AL-003) from Active Region 3363 (S25W73), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2023-07-18T00:53:00-SEP-001 (see notification(s) 20230718-AL-006, 20230718-AL-007), SEP at SOHO with ID 2023-07-18T01:12:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20230718-AL-011), and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2023-07-18T01:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20230718-AL-008 and 20230718-AL-009).\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-18T04:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-20T08:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.74, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 15.55, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.10", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/07/17 23:35Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 03:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction; Note CH/Prior CME correction\nPlane of Sky 2: 09:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction\nPOS Difference: 5:40\nPOS Midpoint: 06:10Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:35\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 0\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.63\nTravel Time: ~8.63 * 6:35 = 56:50\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-07-20T08:25Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours\n - Travel Time: 15%" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-18T04:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-20T06:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.78", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-07-18T01:45Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1638\nLongitude (deg): 32W\nLatitude (deg): 14S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 30\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Alister McHardy" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-18T08:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-19T12:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-27.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.97", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1388.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1466.99\nAcceleration: -4.91305\nDuration in seconds: 131611.38\nDuration in days: 1.5232799\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -4.91 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 820.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/07/2023 Time: 12:09 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-18T08:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-20T09:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.68", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1388.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 799.284\nAcceleration: -0.740128\nDuration in seconds: 208436.09\nDuration in days: 2.4124547\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.74 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 645.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 20/07/2023 Time: 09:29 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-18T08:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-19T22:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.62", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-07-18 02:15\n - Time at C2: 2023-07-17 23:36\n - Radial speed: 1388.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 53 deg\n - Eruption location: S22W32\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 822.40 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-07-19 22:27 (i.e. predicted transit time: 46.85 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-18T17:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-19T20:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.2, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 93.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.83", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-19T02:00:58Z\n## Message ID: 20230719-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-07-19T10:11Z and 2023-07-20T03:40Z (average arrival 2023-07-19T18:08Z) for 89% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-07-19T12:28Z and 2023-07-20T06:59Z (average arrival 2023-07-19T20:40Z) for 93% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 70% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-18_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033/20230718_014800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-18_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033/20230718_014800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-18_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033/20230718_014800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-18_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033/20230718_014800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-18_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033/20230718_014800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis CME (2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-19T00:08Z and OSIRIS-REx at 2023-07-20T04:14Z (plus/minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230718-AL-012).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-18_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033/Detailed_results_20230718_014800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-19T10:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-19T21:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.48", "predictionNote" : "SIDC URSIGRAM 30718\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Jul 2023, 1235UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 022 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 016\n\n...Coronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in\nLASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 23:50 UTC on July 17, as an initial estimate the projected speed is over 1000 km/s. The CME is associated with the M5.7 originating from NOAA AR 3363 near the south west limb. Analysis of the CME is ongoing but, due to the location of the CME origin, a glancing blow at Earth may be possible from late on July 19.\n\n\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30719\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jul 2023, 1246UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 021 PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 014\n\n\n...Coronal mass ejections: The halo coronal mass ejection (CME) from 23:50 UTC on July 17 is expected to impact the Earth with glancing blow on the UTC evening of July 19." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-19T15:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-20T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.90", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-19T23:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-20T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.03", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 02:38\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1216\nLongitude (deg): 36\nLatitude (deg): -12\nHalf-angular width (deg): 59\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-20T01:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 54.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12892.82", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-20T01:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12892.82", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-07-14T19:10:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-07-14T19:10Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-07-16T18:35Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME is faint and difficult to observe, seen as a partial halo to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2 and for few frames in STEREO A COR2 preceding data gap. The source is likely an eruption and subsequent C8.8 flare from AR 3370 (near S18E14) starting around 2023-07-14T18:35Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Noticeably deflected W. Arrival signature: Sharp increase in B-total from 7nT to 13nT. Sudden fluctuation in B-field components and increases in solar wind speed from ~350km/s to ~450km/s, in temperature and gradual increase in density. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS: definite shock arrival ~2023-07-16T18:35Z and another similar and more prominent feature in the plasma data around 2023-07-17T01:26Z (speed jump of 200 km/s) but nothing in the magnetic field. It is possible to have an admixture of HSS as well late on 2023-07-17.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-15T15:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-17T08:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.25", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-15T15:20:17Z\n## Message ID: 20230715-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-07-14T19:10Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~934 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 2/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-07-14T19:10:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME may reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-07-18T02:12Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-16T06:33Z, and STEREO A at 2023-07-17T02:48Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-07-17T08:07Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-07-14T19:10:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230714_222400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230714_222400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230714_222400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230714_222400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230714_222400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230714_222400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230714_222400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230714_222400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-07-14T19:10:00-CME-001) is associated with C8.8 flare from Active Region 13370 (S18E14) with ID 2023-07-14T18:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-07-14T18:44Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-15T17:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-17T03:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.83", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-07-14 22:24\n- Time at C2: 2023-07-14 19:10\n- Radial speed: 934.0 km/s\n- Half angle: 40 deg\n- Eruption location: S18W02\nInferences:\n - No flare association was found\nPredictions for Earth:\n - In-situ shock speed: 686.20 km/s\n - Shock arrival time: 2023-07-17 03:54 (i.e. predicted transit time: 56.73 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-15T22:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-17T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.75", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 22:37\nRadial velocity (km/s): 933\nLongitude (deg): 0\nLatitude (deg): -18\nHalf-angular width (deg): 46\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-15T23:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-17T03:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.43", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-16T14:40:48Z ## Message ID: 20230716-AL-003 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-07-14T19:10:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230715-AL-001).\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-07-16T16:49Z and 2023-07-17T04:07Z (average arrival 2023-07-16T22:30Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally, the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-07-16T20:53Z and 2023-07-17T08:49Z (average arrival 2023-07-17T03:01Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is an 84% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-15_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031/20230714_191000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-15_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031/20230714_191000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-15_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031/20230714_191000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-15_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031/20230714_191000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-15_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031/20230714_191000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-15_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031/20230714_191000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-07-14T19:10:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-16T06:33Z (plus minus 7 hours) and at OSIRIS-REx at 2023-07-18T02:12Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230715-AL-001).\n\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-15_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031/Detailed_results_20230714_191000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA031.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-16T05:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-17T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.58", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 832km/s\nLongitude (deg): W007\nLatitude (deg): S24\nHalf-angular width (deg): 44\n\nNotes: Captures full faint halo to south. Uncertain material content so low confidence in strength of impact. \nSpace weather advisor: Yannick Foin/Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-16T06:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-17T01:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.97", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 934.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1000.73\nAcceleration: -2.36686\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 195748.70\nDuration in days: 2.2656100\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.37 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 537.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/07/2023 Time: 01:32 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-16T06:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-17T12:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.93", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 934.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 552.762\nAcceleration: 0.727638\nDuration in seconds: 235766.80\nDuration in days: 2.7287824\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.73 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 724.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/07/2023 Time: 12:39 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-16T07:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-18T01:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.08, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 16.37, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "31.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "10.70", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/07/14 19:00Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 05:00Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction; Note: Rough estimation\nPlane of Sky 2: 10:00Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction; Note: Rough estimation\nPOS Difference: 5:00\nPOS Midpoint: 07:30Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:30\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.3\nTravel Time: ~6.3 * 12:30 = 78:45\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-07-18T01:45Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours\n - Travel Time: 15%" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-16T12:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-18T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 14.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 14.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "41.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "5.63", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2023 Jul 16 1245 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30716\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Jul 2023, 1244UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 177 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 175 / AP: 005 PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 011\n\n \n\n... Coronal mass ejections: The faint partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery at 19:10 UTC on July 14th and related to an on-disc filament eruption and C8.8 flaring from plage region NOAA AR 3370 remains difficult to analyse due to lack of STEREO COR2 data and overlapping surrounding events. A glancing blow from it could arrive at Earth on July 18th. ..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-17T12:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 71.25, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.16667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12986.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-17T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 62.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-12986.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-07-11T19:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-07-14T15:55Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright southern partial halo CME with a wider faint shock front. Its source is a large filament eruption with deep dimming and high post-eruptive arcades occurring in southern hemisphere south of AR 3363 around 2023-07-11T19:15Z (SDO 304,193, EUVI A 195, 304) centered around S35E05.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-12T02:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-15T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.93", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Jul 12 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nActivity included a large, active filament centered near approximately\nS30E07 that eventually erupted beginning at about 11/1830 UTC. A Type II\nradio sweep was reported by USAF observatories at 11/1941 UTC, which is\nmost likely the shock detection of the aforementioned eruptive filament.\nModeling of this event indicates a bulk of the material will pass south\nof Earth with the shock and possible northern flanking edge of the\nmagnetic cloud arriving early on 15 Jul (outside of the current forecast\nperiod).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 13-Jul 15 2023\n\n Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15\n00-03UT 2.00 2.00 4.33 \n03-06UT 1.33 1.67 4.67 (G1)\n06-09UT 1.67 1.67 4.00 \n09-12UT 1.00 1.67 3.33 \n12-15UT 2.67 1.67 2.33 \n15-18UT 2.00 3.33 2.67 \n18-21UT 2.00 4.00 2.33 \n21-00UT 2.33 4.33 2.67 \n\nRationale: Rationale: Glancing blow CME influences may lead to active\nlevels on 14 Jul, with a chance of G1 (Minor) storm levels. G1 levels\nare more likely on 15 Jul should the CME arrive as anticipated. Forecast\nconfidence in timing and arrival of this CME are low." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-12T12:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-15T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.20", "predictionNote" : "From SIDC Ursigram\n:Issued: 2023 Jul 12 1234 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30712\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Jul 2023, 1233UT\nSIDC FORECAST\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 216 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 211 / AP: 025 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jul 2023 10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 015\n\nCoronal mass ejections: ... A filament eruption near NOAA AR 3363 (beta) was observed yesterday with an associated southward partial halo CME first visible in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 19:24 UTC on July 11th with a projected speed around 750 km/s. Detailed analysis suggests that a glancing blow from this CME can be expected to arrive to Earth on July 15th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-12T13:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-14T10:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.15", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-12T13:46:25Z\n## Message ID: 20230712-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-07-11T19:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~858 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -10/-35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-07-15T07:50Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-13T09:00Z, and STEREO A at 2023-07-14T05:41Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-07-14T10:58Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME 2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_234000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_234000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_234000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_234000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_234000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_234000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_234000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_234000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-12T15:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-14T06:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.48", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-07-11 23:40\n - Time at C2: 2023-07-11 19:24\n - Radial speed: 858.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 39 deg\n - Eruption location: S35E10\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 663.40 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-07-14 06:13 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.82 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-12T15:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-14T16:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.93, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 15.91, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.42", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/07/11 19:30Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 02:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction\nPlane of Sky 2: 07:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction\nPOS Difference: 5:30\nPOS Midpoint: 04:45Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:15\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 1\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.41\nTravel Time: ~7.41 * 9:15 = 68:32\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-07-14T16:02Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours\n - Travel Time: 15%" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-12T17:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-14T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.92", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-07-11T23:35Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 870\nLongitude (deg): E012\nLatitude (deg): S32\nHalf-angular width (deg): 39\n\nNotes: Bulk of material passing south of Earth with low confidence of glancing impact + shock arrival. Geomagnetic response may be further enhanced due to previous CME arrival + HSS. \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-12T17:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-14T12:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.87", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/25922/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=769.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2023-07-11T23:52Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-07-14T12:51Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =26.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-15T10:59Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-13T10:23Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-14T07:17Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230711_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-12T20:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-14T14:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 14.2, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.2, "confidenceInPercentage" : 96.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.22", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-13T12:55:42Z ## Message ID: 20230713-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230712-AL-004). \n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-07-13T18:12Z and 2023-07-14T18:53Z (average arrival 2023-07-14T10:07Z) for 95% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally, the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-07-14T00:35Z and 2023-07-14T21:58Z (average arrival 2023-07-14T14:49Z) for 87% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 84% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-12_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA030/20230711_192400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA030_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-12_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA030/20230711_192400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA030_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-12_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA030/20230711_192400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA030_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-12_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA030/20230711_192400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA030_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-12_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA030/20230711_192400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA030_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes: This CME event is also predicted to have an impact at Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-13T10:23Z and OSIRIS-REx at 2023-07-15T10:59Z (plus/minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-12_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA030/Detailed_results_20230711_192400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA030.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-13T07:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-15T02:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.90", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 858 km/s \nSource location: S35E10 \nSolar wind speed: 320 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-13T07:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-14T20:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.83", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 858 km/s \nSource location: S35E10 \nSolar wind speed: 320 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-13T07:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-14T06:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.77", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 858.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 922.682\nAcceleration: -1.98937\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 211319.05\nDuration in days: 2.4458223\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.99 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 502.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 14/07/2023 Time: 06:05 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-13T07:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-14T14:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.75", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 858.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 511.494\nAcceleration: 0.941862\nDuration in seconds: 240918.42\nDuration in days: 2.7884076\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.94 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 738.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 14/07/2023 Time: 14:19 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-14T17:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 72.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.28571, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.57143, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-13037.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-14T15:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-13037.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-07-10T04:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-07-10T04:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-07-13T15:49Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery (data gap during event in STEREO A as it travels out in the field of view). The source of this CME is a double ribbon flare near AR13366 and plage region 13358 and associated filament eruption starting around 2023-07-10T03:20Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA 131, 304, and 171. The associated filament is very clearly seen in GOES SUVI 304 as well. Arrival signature: Clear interplanetary shock consisting of magnetic field enhancement from 7 nT to 14 nT, rapid increase in ACE particle density, and rapid but relatively small increases in solar wind speed and temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-10T10:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-13T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "77.82", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-07-10T11:07Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 900\nLongitude (deg): 37\nLatitude (deg): -17\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Alister McHardy" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-10T13:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-13T00:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.15", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/25872/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-07-10T04:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=37.0, Lat.=-10.0, Speed=901.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-07-10T07:48Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-07-13T00:28Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =27.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.2\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-13T11:45Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-11T09:57Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-12T23:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CMEFM v.0.1", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-10T14:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-12T09:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.09, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.46, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-30.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.48", "predictionNote" : "Time of Launch: 2023/07/10 04:05Z\nPlane of Sky 1: 10:05Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction; Note: CH HSS correction\nPlane of Sky 2: 15:15Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction\nPOS Difference: 5:10\nPOS Midpoint: 12:40Z\nTOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:35\n\nNumeric View/Impact Type: 2\nPOS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.24\nTravel Time: ~6.24 * 8:35 = 53:36\n\nPredicted L1 Arrival: 2023-07-12T09:41Z\n\nError Parameters:\n - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours\n - Travel Time: 15%" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-10T14:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-12T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.15", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-07-10 07:48\n - Time at C2: 2023-07-10 04:00\n - Radial speed: 901.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: S10W37\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: M2.3 (S13W49). Peak at 2023-07-10 03:29\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 587.83 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-07-12 23:00 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.00 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-10T19:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-12T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.60", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA fast partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 04:00 UTC on July 10th. The CME has estimated projected velocity around 1000 km/s and is related to M2.4-flaring from NOAA AR 3366 (beta) with start time 03:29 UTC, peak time 03:55 UTC and end time 04:22 UTC on July 10th. Type II radio emission was detected at 03:41 UTC during the flaring activity. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, preliminary analysis suggests that a glancing blow could possibly arrive at Earth in the UTC afternoon of July 12th, though probability of arrival is relatively small. Further analysis is ongoing to better determine the CME direction of propagation and expected impacts at Earth.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-10T23:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-12T22:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.8, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.50", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-11T12:27:40Z\n## Message ID: 20230711-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-07-10T04:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230710-AL-001).\n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-07-12T15:53Z and 2023-07-13T03:49Z (average arrival 2023-07-12T20:40Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally, the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-07-12T17:22Z and 2023-07-13T05:31Z (average arrival 2023-07-12T22:13Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 68% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-10_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA029/20230710_040000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA029_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-10_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA029/20230710_040000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA029_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-10_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA029/20230710_040000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA029_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-10_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA029/20230710_040000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA029_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-10_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA029/20230710_040000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA029_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event is also predicted to have an impact at OSIRIS-REx at 2023-07-13T11:45Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-11T09:57Z (plus/minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-10_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA029/Detailed_results_20230710_040000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA029.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-11T01:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-13T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.90", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 08:01\nRadial velocity (km/s): 894\nLongitude (deg): 51\nLatitude (deg): -14\nHalf-angular width (deg): 49\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-11T06:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-12T12:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-27.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.17", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 901.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 966.843\nAcceleration: -2.20123\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 202335.48\nDuration in days: 2.3418459\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.20 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 521.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/07/2023 Time: 12:12 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-11T06:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-12T22:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.15", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 901.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 534.843\nAcceleration: 0.821765\nDuration in seconds: 238001.50\nDuration in days: 2.7546469\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.82 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 730.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/07/2023 Time: 22:06 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-11T06:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-13T01:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.02", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 900 km/s \nSolar wind speed: 350 km/s\nDuration time: 1 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2023-07-11T06:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-12T23:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.98", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 900 km/s \nSource location: S10W37 \nSolar wind speed: 350 km/s\nDuration time: 1 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-12T22:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.16667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-13061.12", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-12T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-13061.12", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-06-27T20:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-06-27T20:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-06-30T11:20Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide but faint asymmetrical possibly partial halo CME in the NE in both coronagraphs, seen at start and end in FOV of COR2A before and after the nighttime data gap. Likely source is a slow developing dimming NE of AR 3354 (N15E13) in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 after 2023-06-27T20Z and a faintly seen filament eruption happening at the same time in AIA/EUVI A 304. Arrival signature is very weak. It is characterized by separation of magnetic field components, as well as an increase in speed and magnetic field intensity from 4 nT to 8 nT.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-06-28T01:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-01T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.05", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Jun 28 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nA 10 degree-long filament eruption centered near N26E24 was observed in\nGOES-18 SUVI 304 imagery beginning around 27/1700 UTC, resulting in a\nCME that can be seen in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. Around the same\ntime another CME was observed off the east limb, corresponding with\nimpulsive limb activity that can be seen in SUVI 304 imagery. Both CMEs\nwere parametrized and modeled with WSA-Enlil returning a low-confidence\nglancing blow by mid to late day on 01 Jul." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-06-28T16:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-01T04:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.90", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/25757/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-06-27T20:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-26.0, Lat.=18.0, Speed=520.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2023-06-28T03:01Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-07-01T04:55Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =25.5 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.2\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-06-30T22:56Z\nOSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-02T10:00Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-06-29T02:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-06-28T17:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-30T20:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.33", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-06-28 03:01\n - Time at C2: 2023-06-27 20:36\n - Radial speed: 520.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 39 deg\n - Eruption location: N18E26\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: C1.8 (N15E18). Peak at 2023-06-27 19:28\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 549.31 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-06-30 20:46 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.17 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-06-29T01:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-01T02:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 79.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.92", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-06-29T11:13:16Z\n## Message ID: 20230629-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-06-27T20:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230628-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-06-30T10:58Z and 2023-07-01T06:07Z (average arrival 2023-06-30T20:14Z) for 83% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-06-30T16:49Z and 2023-07-01T12:52Z (average arrival 2023-07-01T02:48Z) for 79% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 93% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-28_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027/20230627_203600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-28_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027/20230627_203600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-28_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027/20230627_203600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-28_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027/20230627_203600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-28_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027/20230627_203600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-28_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027/20230627_203600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-28_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027/Detailed_results_20230627_203600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA027.txt\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-01T02:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 79.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-13377.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-07-01T03:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 79.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-13377.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-06-26T12:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-06-26T12:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-06-29T08:20Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "There was a significant SOHO data gap during initial real-time analysis of this CME. This CME is visible to the N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source appears to be a filament eruption visible to the NE in SDO/AIA 304 with associated dimming signature in SDO/AIA 193, and moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 171. The filament is slow to fully erupt, potentially causing multiple fronts to appear in the coronagraphs. Arrival signature is weak, possibly indicating a glancing blow CME arrival, characterized by separation of magnetic field components, increase in speed and magnetic field intensity from 5 nT to 8 nT and a temporary drop in temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-06-27T20:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-30T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.82", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-06-27T20:31:06Z\n## Message ID: 20230627-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-06-26T12:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~690 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -12/35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-06-26T12:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2023-06-29T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME might reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-06-30T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-06-26T12:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230626_184000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230626_184000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230626_184000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230626_184000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230626_184000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230626_184000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-30T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-13404.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-30T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-13404.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-06-04T10:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-06-04T10:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-06-07T22:25Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME seen to the southwest in all coronagraphs (SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2). Leading edge is faint and wide. Source is a large filament eruption seen spanning from about S32W10 to S10W50 in SDO AIA 304 starting at about 2023-06-04T09:00Z (Centered at S25W30). Post-eruptive dimming can be seen in SDO AIA 193 along the southwest quadrant of the Sun at 09:27Z, and ejecta can be seen off the southwest limb in SDO AIA 171 at 09:42Z. The filament can also be seen erupting in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 starting at 08:25Z/8:15Z, respectively. From LASSOS team discussion: this signature is likely a flank arrival of a CME passing West of Earth.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-06-04T17:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-07T13:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.85", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-06-04T17:34:46Z\n## Message ID: 20230604-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-06-04T10:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~692 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 30/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-06-04T10:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-06-08T00:32Z and the flank of the CME may cause a glancing blow at STEREO A at 2023-06-07T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-06-07T13:14Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-06-04T10:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230604_154400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230604_154400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230604_154400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230604_154400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230604_154400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230604_154400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230604_154400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-06-04T19:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-07T02:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.42", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-06-04 15:44\n - Time at C2: 2023-06-04 10:24\n - Radial speed: 692.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 33 deg\n - Eruption location: S12W30\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 613.60 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-06-07 02:21 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.95 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-06-04T19:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-07T07:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.33", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 692.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 752.200\nAcceleration: -1.21344\nDuration in seconds: 250155.00\nDuration in days: 2.8953125\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.21 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 448.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 07/06/2023 Time: 07:53 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-06-04T19:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-07T08:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.30", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 692.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 421.356\nAcceleration: 1.37838\nDuration in seconds: 252327.28\nDuration in days: 2.9204547\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.38 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 769.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 07/06/2023 Time: 08:29 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-06-04T19:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-07T10:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.08, "confidenceInPercentage" : 62.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.47", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-06-05T16:12:55Z ## Message ID: 20230605-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-06-04T10:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230604-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-06-07T05:56Z and 2023-06-07T14:31Z (average arrival 2023-06-07T10:18Z) for 34% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-06-07T04:32Z and 2023-06-07T16:35Z (average arrival 2023-06-07T10:30Z) for 62% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-04_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179/20230604_102400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-04_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179/20230604_102400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-04_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179/20230604_102400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-04_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179/20230604_102400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-04_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179/20230604_102400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-04_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179/20230604_102400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-06-04T10:24:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at OSIRIS-REx at 2023-06-08T00:32Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230604-AL-001).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-06-04_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179/Detailed_results_20230604_102400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX179.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-06-04T21:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-08T03:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 2.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.08", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME Event ID: A9535\nGlancing blow\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-06-04 17:00:00Z \nRadial velocity (km/s): 574 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 33°\nLatitude (deg): -13°\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nFrom NOAA SWPC Forecast Discussion issued: 2023 Jun 05 1230 UTC\nSolar Activity\n...\n.24 hr Summary...\nA 35 degree long filament, centered near S20W33, lifted off between\n04/0830-1000 UTC. A portion of the material was observed moving north,\nbut a portion did escape off the SW limb as observed in SOHO LASCO\nimagery. The resultant CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at\n04/1036 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested possible\ninfluence from the periphery of the CME on 08 Jun." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-06-05T12:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-08T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.22", "predictionNote" : "From 2023-06-05 URSIgram:\n\n\"...A filament eruption occurred in the southwestern quadrant of the Sun from around 08:30 UTC on June 4th. The associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 10:36 UTC on June 4th. The CME is directed to the south-west and the bulk of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. However, a glancing blow of the shock may impact Earth in the late evening of June 07 or in the first half of June 08. In case of arrival, active geomagnetic conditions can be expected with possibly associated minor storm conditions. During the last 24 hours there were no other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.\"" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-07T14:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 46.25, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.8, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.2, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-13918.52", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-07T10:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 46.25, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-13918.52", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-05-30T17:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-05-30T17:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-06-03T21:05Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint, slow, loop-like CME seen to the west-northwest in SOHO C2, C3 and appearing slightly brighter in STEREO A COR2 in the same direction. The source is unclear, and thus simulation results are fairly speculative, but measurements indicate some confidence in an Earth-facing source on the Sun between longitudes 20 and 30 degrees. Possibly associated with brightening and dimming seen on the Earth-facing disk early on 2023-05-30 near N00W40, or with a minor eruption near the vicinity of AR3319 with westward deflection. Arrival signature: increase of magnetic field and rotation of components. From LASSOS discussion: there could be two CME arrivals in this signature - one late on 6/3, then another on 6/4 lasting into 6/6, with the \ninteraction region between the two CMEs around 2023-06-04T19:30Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-31T13:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-04T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.28", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/25422/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-05-30T17:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=26.0, Lat.=7.0, Speed=311.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2023-05-31T04:38Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-06-04T03:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-06-05T00:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_043800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-31T18:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-04T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.55", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/25427/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-05-30T17:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=27.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=256.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2023-05-31T07:04Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-06-04T07:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-06-06T03:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-04T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14015.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-06-04T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14015.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-05-09T19:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-05-09T19:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-05-12T05:48Z", "maxKP" : 5.37, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Large halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Source is M4.2 flare from AR13296. Large EUV wave and dimming seen across the disk in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. ARRIVAL SIGNATURES at L1 and STEREO A, confirmed by LASSOS team as shock and iCME.\n-L1: 2023-05-12T05:48Z. Arrival signature is likely the CME shock arrival characterized by an abrupt jump of magnetic field to over 13 nT and of solar wind speed from 480 km/s to 560 km/s accompanied by the jump in ion temperature and density and some rotation of magnetic field components.\n-STEREO: 2023-05-12T01Z Arrival is signified by a sudden increase in Btotal to 13 nT, accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed to 900 km/s and an increase in ion density. No temperature data is available). The arrival at STEREO A is unexpectedly several hours before the CME arrival at L1.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-09T20:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-11T01:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.57", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1651.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1737.09\nAcceleration: -6.61621\nDuration in seconds: 416701.41\nDuration in days: 4.8229330\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 108400.65\nDuration in days: 1.2546371\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -6.62 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 1019.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/05/2023 Time: 01:06 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-09T20:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-12T00:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.55", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1651.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 942.093\nAcceleration: -1.73778\nDuration in seconds: 192951.79\nDuration in days: 2.2332383\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.74 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 606.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/05/2023 Time: 00:35 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-09T21:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-11T13:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.30", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-05-09 21:05\n - Time at C2: 2023-05-09 19:00\n - Radial speed: 1651.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N11W26\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 901.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-05-11 13:34 (i.e. predicted transit time: 42.57 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-09T22:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-11T12:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.68", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-05-09T22:07:14Z\n## Message ID: 20230509-AL-009\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-05-09T19:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1651 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 26/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-05-09T19:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-05-12T00:50Z and STEREO A at 2023-05-11T15:21Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-05-11T12:19Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-05-09T19:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230509_210500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230509_210500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230509_210500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230509_210500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230509_210500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230509_210500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230509_210500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-05-09T19:00:00-CME-001) is associated with M4.2 flare from AR13296 (N17W32) with ID 2023-05-09T18:20:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-05-09T18:58Z and may be associated with the M5.0 flare from AR13296 (N13W36) with ID 2023-05-09T20:32:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-05-09T20:52Z (see notifications 20230509-AL-005 and 20230509-AL-008). This CME event may also be associated with the SEP at STEREO A with ID 2023-05-09T20:39:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20230509-AL-004, 20230509-AL-007). This event is under analysis.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-10T01:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-11T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.82", "predictionNote" : "CME information:\nDierection: N07W10\nAngular width: 83 degrees\nInitial velocity: 1690km/s\n\nPredicted CME shock arrival time: 2023-05-11T06:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 90%\nKp Range: 5-8" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-10T13:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-11T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.02", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery around 19:00 UTC on May 09. The CME was associated with an M4.2 flare from NOAA AR 3296, with peak time 18:58 UTC. The majority of the CME is directed to the north west, but a full halo shock is visible. A preliminary analysis suggests an estimated arrival at Earth on May 11, a full analysis is ongoing.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-10T16:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-11T11:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.10", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 1651 km/s \nSource location: N11W26 \nSolar wind speed: 550 km/s\nDuration time:0.83 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-10T16:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-11T15:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.07", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 1651 km/s \nSource location: N11W26 \nSolar wind speed: 500 km/s\nDuration time: 0.83 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-10T22:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-11T15:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.35, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.85, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.02", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-05-11T02:20:28Z ## Message ID: 20230511-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-05-09T19:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230509-AL-009). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-05-11T11:21Z and 2023-05-12T09:19Z (average arrival 2023-05-11T17:49Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-05-11T10:41Z and 2023-05-12T00:53Z (average arrival 2023-05-11T15:02Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 73% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-10_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178/20230509_190000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-10_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178/20230509_190000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-10_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178/20230509_190000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-10_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178/20230509_190000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-10_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178/20230509_190000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-10_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178/20230509_190000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-05-09T19:00:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at OSIRIS-REx at 2023-05-12T00:50Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230509-AL-009).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-10_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178/Detailed_results_20230509_190000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX178.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-11T05:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-11T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.08", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-05-09T21:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1450\nLongitude (deg): W07\nLatitude (deg): N01\nHalf-angular width (deg): 47\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Dean Hall" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-11T13:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 86.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.4, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14559.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-11T14:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14559.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-05-07T23:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-05-09T22:06Z", "maxKP" : 5.37, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely an eruption and subsequent long duration M1.6 flare from AR 3296 starting around 2023-05-07T22:15Z in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible at the time of the eruption with post eruptive dimming and arcades visible starting around 23:45Z in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery. The arrival signature at L1 is characterized by jumps in B_total to >15nT, solar wind speed to >550km/s, temperature >600K, and density >15 N(cm^-3). The CME might have arrived at STEREO A at 2023-05-09T19:00Z. From LASSOS team discussion: CME shock arrives on 6/9 and arrival signature ends ~2023-05-10T21:00Z. (It is possible that there are two close arrivals in this signature, with the second shock around 2023-05-10T05Z).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-08T14:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-09T17:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.10", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-05-08T14:00:32Z\n## Message ID: 20230508-AL-007\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-05-07T23:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1494 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 44 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 14/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME may reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-05-10T10:44Z and STEREO A at 2023-05-09T16:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-05-09T17:40Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230508_012400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230508_012400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230508_012400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230508_012400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230508_012400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230508_012400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230508_012400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001) is likely associated with M1.6 flare with ID 2023-05-07T22:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-05-07T23:23Z. This CME event and subsequent M1.6 flare is associated with SEP at STEREO A with ID 2023-05-08T06:19:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20230508-AL-001 and 20230508-AL-003), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2023-05-08T11:45:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20230508-AL-002 and 20230508-AL-004), and SEP at SOHO with ID 2023-05-08T13:13:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20230508-AL-006).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-08T14:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-10T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.60", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 950\nLongitude (deg): W27\nLatitude (deg): N16\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-08T18:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-09T17:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 2.75, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.03", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-05-09T12:13:04Z\n## Message ID: 20230509-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20230508-AL-005 and 20230508-AL-007). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-05-09T15:35Z and 2023-05-09T21:42Z (average arrival 2023-05-09T18:24Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-05-09T15:08Z and 2023-05-09T20:19Z (average arrival 2023-05-09T17:32Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 91% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at OSIRIS-REx at 2023-05-10T10:44Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230508-AL-007).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/Detailed_results_20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177.txt\n###\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-08T20:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-09T08:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.82", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1494.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1575.85\nAcceleration: -5.57936\nDuration in seconds: 444409.97\nDuration in days: 5.1436339\nDuration in seconds: 120476.97\nDuration in days: 1.3944094\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -5.58 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 903.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/05/2023 Time: 08:39 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-08T20:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-10T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.78", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1494.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 856.842\nAcceleration: -1.12922\nDuration in seconds: 200917.79\nDuration in days: 2.3254374\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.13 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 630.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/05/2023 Time: 07:00 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-09T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-10T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.60", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2023-05-10T09:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 90%\nKp Range: 5-7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-09T08:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-10T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.50", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery around 23:25 UTC on May 07. The CME was driven by a long-duration M1 flare from NOAA AR 3296 (beta), peak time 22:34 UTC, located near the central meridian close to the disc centre. The initial estimated plane of sky velocity of the CME is around 600 km/s and preliminary analysis suggests an estimated arrival at Earth on May 11, a full analysis is ongoing.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-09T15:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-10T01:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.83", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 1494 km/s \nSolar wind speed: 400 km/s\nDuration time: 3.0 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-09T15:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-09T23:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.80", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 1494 km/s \nSource location: N11W14 \nSolar wind speed: 400 km/s\nDuration time: 3.0 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-10T02:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.2, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.2, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14614.83", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-10T01:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 92.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14614.83", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-05-05T08:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T13:20Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). Another candidate CME for this arrival could be 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-05T15:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T19:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.20", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-05-05T15:08:31Z\n## Message ID: 20230505-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-05-05T06:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~790 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -90/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-05-05T06:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-05-05T08:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~955 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -34/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Mars and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Mars at 2023-05-10T08:51Z and the leading edge of the CME first seen at 2023-05-05T08:12Z will reach STEREO A at 2023-05-07T14:14Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CME first seen at 2023-05-05T08:12Z may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-05-07T19:35Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-7 (below minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-05-05T06:36:00-CME-001, 2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230505_111000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230505_111000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230505_111000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230505_111000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230505_111000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230505_111000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230505_111000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nLucy which is missing from the simulation may also see an impact on 2023-05-11.\n\nThis CME event (2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001) is associated with the M2.1 flare from Active Region 13296 (N15E30) with ID 2023-05-05T07:30:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-05-05T08:01Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-05T16:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T18:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.07", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24952/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-43.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=877.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2023-05-04T12:21Z\n2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-34.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=955.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2023-05-05T11:48Z\n\n2-CME simulation with 2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001 CME a day before (05/04).\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-05-07T18:45Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =23.1 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-05-07T01:25Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-05T18:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T16:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.33", "predictionNote" : " - Time at C2: 2023-05-05 08:12\n - Radial speed: 955.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 37 deg\n - Eruption location: N02E34\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 692.50 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-05-07 16:22 (i.e. predicted transit time: 56.18 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-05T21:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T22:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.65, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.25, "confidenceInPercentage" : 91.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.50", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-05-06T13:14:37Z\n## Message ID: 20230506-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230505-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-05-07T10:18Z and 2023-05-08T02:22Z (average arrival 2023-05-07T16:46Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2023-05-10T13:58Z and 2023-05-11T02:55Z (average arrival 2023-05-10T20:03Z) for 62% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-05-07T16:01Z and 2023-05-08T07:55Z (average arrival 2023-05-07T22:40Z) for 91% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 54% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176/20230505_081200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176/20230505_081200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176/20230505_081200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176/20230505_081200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176/20230505_081200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176/20230505_081200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176/20230505_081200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176/20230505_081200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001) may also have an impact at Lucy on 2023-05-11 based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notes to notification 20230505-AL-001).\n\nThis CME (2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001) is associated with the M2.1 flare from Active Region 13296 (N15E30) with ID 2023-05-05T07:30:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-05-05T08:01Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176/Detailed_results_20230505_081200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX176.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-06T09:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.17", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nSimulation input parameters:\n\nCME #1\nCME Event ID: A9398\nStart Date/Time: 2023-05-05 07:24:00Z \nLatitude: -1°\nLongitude: -32°\nHalf Angle: 19°\nRadial Velocity: 928 km/s\n\nCME #2\nCME Event ID: A9401\nStart Date/Time: 2023-05-05 08:48:00Z \nLatitude: 12°\nLongitude: -28°\nHalf Angle: 66°\nRadial Velocity: 495 km/s\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 May 06 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was moderate. Region 3297 (N08E29, Ekc/beta) produced an\nimpulsive M1.2/1n flare at 05/1531 UTC. Later on in the period, Region\n3296 (N16E13, Eki/beta) produced a C2.8 flare at 06/0042 UTC with a Type\nII sweep (689 km/s shock velocity) and a Type IV radio emission. Both\nRegions 3296 and 3297, in addition to Regions 3293 (N10E02, Dai/beta),\n3294 (S08E24, Hsx/alpha) and 3299 (S06E47, Cao/beta), showed little\nstructural change.\n\nAfter modeling the CMEs from both the C9.5 flare at 05/0706 UTC from\nRegion 3297 and the M2.1 flare at 05/0801 UTC from Region 3296, analysis\nsuggested an Earth-directed component arriving at Earth midday to late\non 07 May and continuing into 08 May.\n \n...\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were at background levels through 06/0024 UTC.\nAfter 06/0024 UTC, wind parameters increased dramatically. Total field\nincreased from 4 to 19 nT, the Bz component varied southward from 2 to\n15 nT, total field increased to 37 pp/cm and wind speed increased from\n320 km/s to a peak of about 550 km/s. The phi orientation was variable\nafter about 05/2045 UTC. This increase in activity was due to possible\nCME influence observed early on 02 May.\n\n.Forecast...\nAn enhanced solar wind environment is anticipated for the duration of\nthe forecast period. Waning CME influence and positive-polarity CH HSS\ninfluence is expected on 06 May with CH HSS effects continuing through\n08 May from two positive polarity coronal hole features. Further\nenhanced conditions are likely midday to late on 07 May and continuing\ninto 08 May from Earth-directed CMEs associated with the flare activity\nmentioned above.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2023 May 06 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2023 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown May 06-May 08 2023\n\n May 06 May 07 May 08\n00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 5.33 (G1)\n03-06UT 6.00 (G2) 3.67 6.00 (G2)\n06-09UT 3.67 3.00 5.67 (G2)\n09-12UT 4.33 3.00 5.00 (G1)\n12-15UT 3.33 3.33 4.33 \n15-18UT 2.00 4.33 4.00 \n18-21UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 4.00 \n21-00UT 3.00 5.00 (G1) 4.00 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 07-08 May, and G2\n(Moderate) storms are likely on 08 May, due to a combination of coronal\nhole high speed stream and CME effects." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-06T13:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.33", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-05-05T11:17Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 950\nLongitude (deg): 07N\nLatitude (deg): 010E\nHalf-angular width (deg): 42\n\nNotes: Mostly shock from M2 flare of AR3296. Low confidence in speed as highly dependent on cone size. Low confidence with extent of material in CME. May catch up with CME from 04 May to arrive as one feature. \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-06T13:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T20:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.00", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2023 May 06 1328 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe partial halo coronal mass ejections (CME) was observed in the morning of May 05, first time seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 07:48 UTC. The partial halo was the result of two CMEs, associated with the C9.5-class flare (from NOAA Active Region 3297 on May 05, peaking at 07:06 UTC) and the M2.1-class flare (from NOAA Active Region 3296 on May 05, peaking at 08:01 UTC). Those two CMEs show an Earth directed component and are expected to arrive on May 07 at the end of the day.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-06T22:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-08T00:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.45", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 955.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 564.165\nAcceleration: 0.666852\nDuration in seconds: 232600.77\nDuration in days: 2.6921386\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.67 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 719.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 08/05/2023 Time: 00:48 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-06T22:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T12:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.40", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 955.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1022.30\nAcceleration: -2.47364\nDuration in seconds: 189415.22\nDuration in days: 2.1923058\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.47 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 553.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 07/05/2023 Time: 12:48 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T18:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.85714, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14671.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T18:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14671.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-05-04T09:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T13:20Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME associated with an M3.9-class flare from Active Region 3296 seen to the northeast in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs comprised of a brighter bulk to the southeast and faint, wider shock with matching leading edge extending from the southeast to the northeast. A halo-like feature closely trailing behind this CME seen in COR2 running difference imagery may be associated with the eruption, but this is uncertain. A SOHO data gap exists over the CME propagation in the C2 FOV of view, obscuring analysis. Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). The other CME candidate for this arrival is 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-04T13:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.55", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-05-04T13:47:35Z\n## Message ID: 20230504-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-05-04T09:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~877 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -43/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A and Mars (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2023-05-07T03:43Z and Mars at 2023-05-09T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-05-07T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.9 flare from Active Region 13296 (N16E45) with ID 2023-05-04T08:05:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-05-04T08:44Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-04T19:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-06T22:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.42", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-05-04 13:04\n - Time at C2: 2023-05-04 09:09\n - Radial speed: 831.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N10E44\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: M3.9 (N17E43). Peak at 2023-05-04 08:05\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 639.68 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-05-06 22:17 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.15 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-05T07:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.08", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2023-05-05T15:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T03:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.53", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 831 km/s \nSource location: N16E45\nSolar wind speed: 400 km/s\nDuration time: 0.64 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T08:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14671.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-07T07:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14671.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-04-30T01:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-04-30T01:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-05-03T09:12Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright CME visible in the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery in SWPC_CAT. The source eruption starts around 2023-04-30T19:00Z in the vicinity of AR 3289 (approximately N20E25) and AR 3292 (approximately N15E30) and can be best seen as opening field lines, faint EUV wave, and some post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines can also be seen on the limb in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also visible in the NE of STEREO A EUV 195 imagery.\nOnly based on field components due to suspect temperature/density data, ACE/DSCOVR may have observed a glancing blow of this CME starting around 2023-05-03T09:12. This corresponds to the start of an extended period of smooth field components but little rotation. A potential end of this CME can be 2023-05-05T06:05.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-04-30T17:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-03T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.38", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24861/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-04-30T01:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=30.0, Speed=339.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2023-04-30T14:19Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-05-03T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-05-03T18:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-03T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14771.73", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-05-03T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-14771.73", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-04-21T18:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-04-21T18:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-04-23T17:00Z", "maxKP" : 8.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption starting around 2023-04-21T17:30Z visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304, as well as STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery near the vicinity of Active Region 3283. An EUV wave is visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 18:00Z, with an associated M1.7 flare peaking at 18:12Z. Post-eruptive dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193 starting around 18:15Z. Arrival of the shock of this CME at L1 is marked by an abrupt jump in total magnetic field to 27 nT and in solar wind speed from ~380 to over 500 km/s (with further increases to 34 nT and ~600 km/s respectively). There were several bouts of negative Bz, with the maximum negative value of -32 nT. The flux rope seems to arrive around 2023-04-24T01:19Z and is marked by smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-04-21T20:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-04-23T19:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.17", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (OSIRIS-REx, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-04-21T20:50:43Z\n## Message ID: 20230421-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2023-04-21T18:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230421-AL-002). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME may reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-04-24T22:44Z and STEREO A at 2023-04-23T18:24Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-04-23T19:05Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\nStart time of the event: 2023-04-21T18:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1204 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 19/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-04-21T18:12:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-04-21T18:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230421_210900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230421_210900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230421_210900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230421_210900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230421_210900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230421_210900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230421_210900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nThis CME event (2023-04-21T18:12:00-CME-001) is associated with an M1.7 flare with ID 2023-04-21T17:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-04-21T18:12Z. The source of this flare and CME event is the newly numbered active region 13283.\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-04-21T22:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-04-23T20:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.42", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-04-21 21:09\n - Time at C2: 2023-04-21 18:12\n - Radial speed: 1204.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 43 deg\n - Eruption location: S13W19\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 767.20 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-04-23 20:35 (i.e. predicted transit time: 50.40 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-04-21T23:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-04-23T19:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 16.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.27", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-04-23T10:06Z and 2023-04-24T08:18Z (average arrival 2023-04-23T18:01Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-04-23T10:51Z and 2023-04-24T11:38Z (average arrival 2023-04-23T19:36Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 58% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/Detailed_results_20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172.txt\n###" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-04-22T00:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-04-24T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.03", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-04-21T21:21Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1081\nLongitude (deg): 016W\nLatitude (deg): 23S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 39\n\nNotes: M1.7 flare from AR3283 vicinity with associated filament eruption. Full halo infinity-shaped shock, however main ejecta seen heading SW. Overlapping lobes of shock give rise to denser portion seen heading NW too, however the SW portion is felt to be the 'main event'. Very clear in all EUV imagery and COR2 and C3. Triangulated using COR2/C3, fitted to C3. Assessed speed is roughly double Type II, which is assumed to have been a harmonic solution.\n\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-04-22T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-04-24T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.50", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\n:Product: 3-Day Forecast\n:Issued: 2023 Apr 22 1230 UTC\n# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center\n#\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 22-Apr 24 2023 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale\nG3).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 22-Apr 24 2023\n\n Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24\n00-03UT 2.00 2.67 5.00 (G1)\n03-06UT 3.00 2.00 6.33 (G2)\n06-09UT 1.67 1.67 4.67 (G1)\n09-12UT 0.67 1.33 4.67 (G1)\n12-15UT 1.67 1.33 4.00 \n15-18UT 1.67 2.33 3.33 \n18-21UT 2.33 3.00 3.33 \n21-00UT 2.67 5.00 (G1) 3.67 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 23 Apr with the onset\nof CME activity followed by G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm\nconditions on 24 Apr with the passage of the 21 Apr CME.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2023\n\n Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24\nS1 or greater 15% 15% 15%\n\nRationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton\nflux to reach the S1 (Minor) threshold on 22-24 Apr.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nRadio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24\nhours. The largest was at Apr 21 2023 1812 UTC.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2023\n\n Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24\nR1-R2 30% 30% 30%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts\non 22-24 Apr." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-04-22T14:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-04-24T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.60", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-04-23T13:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-04-24T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "3.73", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-04-24T00:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 92.25, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.28571, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.64286, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15003.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-04-24T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 94.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15003.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-04-15T12:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-04-15T12:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-04-19T09:22Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME visible in the N/NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in the N/NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen lifting off in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2023-04-15T10:00Z. Dimming is also observed in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195.\n\nArrival occurs near 2023-04-19T09:22Z with extended rotations in the By and Bz magnetic field components as observed by ACE/DSCOVR. This might mean a crossing between the nose and the flank (more towards the flank). The plasma signatures are not very straightforward. This can be because the ICME arrives at the back of the SIR or because of the flank crossing. The possible end of the ICME is 2023-04-21T05:14Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-04-15T19:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-04-19T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "85.98", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24647/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-04-15T12:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-14.0, Lat.=26.0, Speed=390.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2023-04-15T21:21Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-04-19T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-04-19T10:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-04-19T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15107.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-04-19T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15107.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-03-20T14:42Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T09:10Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright, wide and asymmetrical shape CME seen to the NE in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The eruption is characterized by an erupting sigmoid/S-shaped structure centered around N27E20, though dimming and an EUV wave signature is limited to longitudes closer to 30-50 degrees east. On arrival signature from Tarik Salman, LASSOS: background solar wind is quite different from normal levels with higher density (normal density around 5/cc) and speed (normal speed around 350-400 km/s)-a possible reason for this ICME not to have an associated shock. The start of the magnetic flux rope likely coincides with the enhancement in the total field and drop in density and the end of it is around 2023-04-24T09Z (based on an increase in temperature beyond this point and the field components becoming less coherent)", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-20T17:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T17:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.73", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-03-20T17:26:27Z\n## Message ID: 20230320-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-03-20T14:42Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~749 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -40/27 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Lucy (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2023-03-25T22:16Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-03-21T22:07Z, STEREO A at 2023-03-23T11:42Z, and Lucy at 2023-03-25T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-03-23T17:44Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-20T17:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T11:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.42", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-03-22T13:05:52Z\n## Message ID: 20230322-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\nEnsemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230320-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-03-23T04:18Z and 2023-03-23T14:26Z (average arrival 2023-03-23T08:08Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2023-03-25T15:53Z and 2023-03-26T06:30Z (average arrival 2023-03-26T01:27Z) for 91% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-03-23T06:12Z and 2023-03-23T18:23Z (average arrival 2023-03-23T11:20Z) for 87% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001) is also predicted to reach Solar Orbiter at 2023-03-21T22:07Z and Lucy at 2023-03-25T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230320-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/Detailed_results_20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-20T19:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T04:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.83", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-03-20 19:41\n - Time at C2: 2023-03-20 14:42\n - Radial speed: 749.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N27E40\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 630.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-03-23 04:47 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.08 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-21T02:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.92", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-03-20T19:05Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 815\nLongitude (deg): E028\nLatitude (deg): N17\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes: Limited imagery for fit, giving lower confidence. Glancing impact likely.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-21T15:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.45", "predictionNote" : "Event id=\"312\"\n\nfrom SIDC Ursigram Issued: 2023 Mar 21 1301 UTC\n\nA filament erupted in the north-east quadrant near NOAA AR 3258 around\n13:00 UTC on March 20th and long duration C4.4-class flaring was produced\nnear N32E28 starting at 14:07 UTC. A resulting coronal mass ejection (CME)\nwas observed in the LASCO/C2 imagery around 15 UTC. The bulk of the CME is\nfar off the Sun-Earth line, but a glancing blow could reach Earth on March\n23rd." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-22T10:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T06:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.48", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 749.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 810.739\nAcceleration: -1.47236\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 229679.04\nDuration in days: 2.6583222\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.47 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 472.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/03/2023 Time: 06:29 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-22T10:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T10:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.47", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 749.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 452.307\nAcceleration: 1.23334\nDuration in seconds: 244394.76\nDuration in days: 2.8286431\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.23 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 753.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/03/2023 Time: 10:35 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-22T13:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T11:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.07", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-03-22T13:05:52Z ## Message ID: 20230322-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230320-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-03-23T04:18Z and 2023-03-23T14:26Z (average arrival 2023-03-23T08:08Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2023-03-25T15:53Z and 2023-03-26T06:30Z (average arrival 2023-03-26T01:27Z) for 91% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-03-23T06:12Z and 2023-03-23T18:23Z (average arrival 2023-03-23T11:20Z) for 87% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001) is also predicted to reach Solar Orbiter at 2023-03-21T22:07Z and Lucy at 2023-03-25T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230320-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-21_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024/Detailed_results_20230320_185400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA024.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T10:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15755.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T10:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 78.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15755.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-03-20T02:41:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-03-20T02:41Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T09:10Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint, wide CME to SW in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery during STEREO A data gap and campaign with limited imagery. Likely associated with a broad area of coronal restructuring, coronal dimming, destabilization, and filament eruptions seen in SDO 193, 304 starting ~2023-03-20T01:53Z between S10 to S30, W05 to W30. Arrival may be associated with CME 2023-03-20T14:42Z. From Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS: start of sheath is ~2023-03-23T05Z - enhancements in total magnetic field/density. Background solar wind is quite different from normal levels with higher density (normal density around 5/cc) and speed (normal speed around 350-400 km/s). This can be a reason there is no shock. Start of the magnetic flux rope ~13:30Z coincides with enhancement in total field and drop in density. 2023-03-24T06:50Z is the possible end time based on an increase in temperature beyond this point and the field components becoming less coherent.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-20T13:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.70", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-03-20T13:28:36Z\n## Message ID: 20230320-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-03-20T02:41Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~550 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 20/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-03-20T02:41:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2023-03-23T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-03-23T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-03-20T02:41:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_080200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_080200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_080200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_080200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_080200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: Higher than average uncertainty in measurements due to faintness of the CME, limited coronagraph imagery, and the broad, expansive area of coronal restructuring over which the eruption takes place on the solar disk.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-21T03:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.42", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-03-20T08:10Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 602\nLongitude (deg): W023\nLatitude (deg): S32\nHalf-angular width (deg): 29 \n\nNotes: Faint, and very difficult to fit given imagery problems. Likely weak impact but could arrive alongside CH86 CIR or HSS. Could be difficult to distinguish from other CME too.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15755.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-23T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15755.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-03-17T10:58:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-03-17T10:58Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-03-20T22:37Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "[PRELIMINARY] This CME overlaps the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-03-17T10:30Z to the SW. There are currently ongoing campaigns impacting the amount of available imagery for the SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 starting around 2023-03-17T08:50Z with full lift off by 2023-03-17T12:17Z. The filament has it's largest mass centered around S40W30, but stretches between the longitudes of 0 degrees to 40 degrees and the latitudes of -20 degrees to -50 degrees. Possible minor arrival signature includes gradual increase of total magnetic field to over 11 nT with rotation of at least two magnetic field components, possibly indicating a CME arrival/glancing blow. It is likely embedded in a HSS. Waiting for assessment from LASSOS team.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-17T21:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-21T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.93", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes: \nfrom Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2023 Mar 19 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n...\n\nA CME associated with a filament eruption in the SW on 17 Mar (seen in\nLASCO C2 imagery at ~17/1100 UTC) is expected to arrive late on 20\nMar/early on 21 Mar.\n\n...\n\n.Forecast...\nNear nominal solar wind environment is expected on 19 Mar. On 20-21 Mar,\nthe combination of a potential grazing from the 17 Mar CME and a\npositive polarity CH HSS is expected to enhance solar wind conditions." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-20T11:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-21T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.27", "predictionNote" : "Event id=\"311\"\n\nFrom SIDC Ursigram Issued: 2023 Mar 20 1247 UTC\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC    #\n# (RWC Belgium)                                                     #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30320\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Mar 2023, 1246UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Mar 2023 until 22 Mar 2023)\n\n...\n\nThe solar wind parameters over the next 24 hours are\nexpected to be slightly enhanced due to a forecasted mild high speed stream\narrival and a small chance for possible glancing blow arrivals related to\nthe UTC morning and evening filament eruptions in the south-west sector on\nMarch 17th." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-21T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15814.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-21T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15814.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-03-13T10:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-03-13T10:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T03:48Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME seen to the NW in STEREO Ahead COR2 coronagraph associated with a filament eruption seen near N30E02 which erupts with significant deflection to the north and west as seen in SDO/GOES 304 imagery around 2023-03-13T09:54Z. Arrival signature notes: this arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-12T19:24Z CME, although this is less likely due to the earlier arrival at STEREO A. LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-13T16:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-16T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "28.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.90", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-03-13T16:54:31Z\n## Message ID: 20230313-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A and SOHO.\n\nStart time of the event: 2023-03-13T10:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~750 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 31/31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-03-13T10:53:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-03-18T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-03-16T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-03-13T10:53:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230313_152500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230313_152500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230313_152500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230313_152500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-13T17:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-16T00:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.72", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-03-13 15:25\n - Time at C2: 2023-03-13 10:53\n - Radial speed: 750.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 39 deg\n - Eruption location: N31W31\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 631.00 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-03-16 00:55 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.05 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-13T22:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.55", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-03-13T13:19Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1334\nLongitude (deg): 24\nLatitude (deg): 27\nHalf-angular width (deg): 31\n\nNotes: Missing or glancing impact expected, with material largely passing north of ecliptic.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-14T01:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : -100, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.72", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:12:50\nRadial velocity (km/s):1572\nLongitude (deg):10\nLatitude (deg):15\nHalf-angular width (deg):29\n\nNotes: The associated CME is surprisingly mostly NW, with not that much expansion, but modelling shows that edge of this CME may arrive mid UT day 15-Mar. Considering the location the expectation was for more a semi-halo shaped CME. Due to modelled speed and the chance of a glancing blow, and that apparently filaments can have more stable Bz orientations which could be southward or northward I suppose went with a brief peak Kp of 6. Probably an over forecast." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-14T01:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.15", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2023-03-15T22:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 60%\nKp Range Lower Limit: 4\nKp Range Upper Limit: 6" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-14T11:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-16T02:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.73", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 750.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 811.766\nAcceleration: -1.47697\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 228838.73\nDuration in days: 2.6485964\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.48 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 473.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/03/2023 Time: 02:26 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-14T11:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-16T06:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "26.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.70", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 750.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 452.850\nAcceleration: 1.23075\nDuration in seconds: 243945.14\nDuration in days: 2.8234391\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.23 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 753.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/03/2023 Time: 06:38 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-14T11:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-16T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.92", "predictionNote" : "From SIDC Ursigram: Issued: 2023 Mar 14 1231 UTC\n\n\"Another filament\neruption occurred in the northern hemisphere near disc center at around\n09:50UTC on March 13. The associated CME, that appears in SoHO/LASCO C2\ncoronagraph data from 10:48UTC onwards, is directed to the north-west. The\nbulk of this eruptions is estimated to miss Earth, but there is a chance\nfor a glancing blow late on March 15. During the last 24 hours there were\nno other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available\ncoronagraph observations.\"" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-16T15:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-35.70", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T23:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 38.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.14286, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.28571, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15953.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-16T00:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15953.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-03-12T19:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-03-12T19:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T03:48Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME going South in SOHO LASCO and SSW in STEREO A COR2. Its source is a gradual eruption of complex, mostly longitudinally oriented filament centered approximately around ~S25E20 (filament seems to extend from at least S5 to S50) and is seen starting to erupt in AIA 304 and 193 around 2023-03-12T18:30Z. Possible arrival is marked by an increase in B_total from 8 nT to 22.5 nT, reaching a maximum of 26 nT at 2023-03-15T05:02Z. Accompanied by an increase in speed from approximately 420 km/s to 550 km/s, an increase in density, and increase in temperature. This arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-13T10:53Z CME (possibly more less likely due to the earlier observed arrival at STEREO A). LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-13T15:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T12:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.07", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24218/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-03-12T19:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-4.0, Lat.=-33.0, Speed=838.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2023-03-12T23:11Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-03-15T12:35Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =27.9 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-03-14T10:59Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-03-15T11:01Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-13T17:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T17:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.77", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-03-13T17:02:12Z\n## Message ID: 20230313-AL-006\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-03-12T19:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~793 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -3/-38 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-03-12T19:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2023-03-14T11:00Z and STEREO A at 2023-03-15T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-03-15T17:10Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-03-12T19:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_233700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_233700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_233700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_233700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_233700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-13T22:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.63", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-03-12T23:40Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 760\nLongitude (deg): W001\nLatitude (deg): S36\nHalf-angular width (deg): 27\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-14T01:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.37", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2023-03-15T14:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 60%\nKp Range Lower Limit: 4\nKp Range Upper Limit: 6" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-14T02:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T08:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.82", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-03-14T16:01:05Z ## Message ID: 20230314-AL-003 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-03-12T19:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230313-AL-006). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-03-14T22:26Z and 2023-03-15T14:16Z (average arrival 2023-03-15T08:23Z) for 66% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-03-14T23:20Z and 2023-03-15T15:49Z (average arrival 2023-03-15T08:55Z) for 70% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 79% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA022/20230312_192400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA022_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA022/20230312_192400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA022_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA022/20230312_192400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA022_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA022/20230312_192400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA022_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA022/20230312_192400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA022_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event is also predicted to have an impact at Solar Orbiter at 2023-03-14T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230313-AL-006).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA022/Detailed_results_20230312_192400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA022.txt\n###\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-14T11:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.85", "predictionNote" : "From: SIDC Ursigram: Issued: 2023 Mar 14 1231 UTC\n\n\"A filament eruption in the southeastern quadrant was observed on March 12\naround 17:45UTC. The associated CME appears in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph\ndata from 19:00UTC onwards. The CME is directed to the south and the bulk\nof the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. However, a glancing blow\nof the shock may impact Earth from late on March 15.\"" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T15:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15953.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T15:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15953.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-03-10T17:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-03-14T03:58Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Wide CME visible in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption stretching from S25W30 to N05W60 with liftoff starting around 2023-03-10T16:00Z. Source signature includes an EUV wave and dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 171. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI imagery. Possible arrival signature: Weak shock characterized by rise in magnetic field strength from 8.5 nT to 13 nT along with jump in wind speed from ~315 km/s to near 390 km/s with simultaneous pileup and increase in temperature. LASSOS team: a possible weak glancing blow from a CME with a shock-like structure but no magnetic obstacle.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-10T20:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-14T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.17", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24186/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=44.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=454.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-03-11T01:27Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-03-14T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nOSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-03-15T08:24Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_012700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-10T23:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-14T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.53", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 11/0038UT\nRadial velocity (km/s): 512\nLongitude (deg): 41W\nLatitude (deg): 30S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 40\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-11T07:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-15T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.47", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-11T13:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-14T08:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.15", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-03-11T13:49:18Z\n## Message ID: 20230311-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-03-10T17:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~515 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 38/-30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-03-15T06:23Z and STEREO A at 2023-03-14T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-03-14T08:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-03-11T17:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-14T01:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 37.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.40", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (OSIRIS-REx, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-03-12T12:51:09Z\n## Message ID: 20230312-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230311-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the CME will reach STEREO A between about 2023-03-13T19:10Z and 2023-03-14T06:21Z (average arrival 2023-03-14T00:10Z) for 28% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-03-13T17:58Z and 2023-03-14T12:15Z (average arrival 2023-03-14T01:06Z) for 37% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 59% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-11_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021/20230310_231100_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-11_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021/20230310_231100_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-11_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021/20230310_231100_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-11_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021/20230310_231100_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-11_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021/20230310_231100_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-11_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021/20230310_231100_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at OSIRIS-REx at 2023-03-15T06:23Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 2023-03-11T13:49:18Z).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-03-11_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021/Detailed_results_20230310_231100_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA021.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-14T09:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 37.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15976.97", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-03-14T08:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 37.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-15976.97", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-02-25T19:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T10:15Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright partial halo CME with a bulk portion predominantly to the West in STEREO A COR2 imagery. No SOHO imagery available during initial entry. Source is a filament eruption and simultaneous M6.3 flare from AR13229. An EUV wave is best seen in GOES/SUVI 284 starting at 2023-02-25T18:54Z. A post-eruptive arcade is present in most SDO/AIA wavelengths following the eruption. Likely CME arrival (shock and sheath) are seen at 2023-02-27T10:15Z, as jump in magnetic field to over 20 nT, accompanied by sharp drop in density and temperature. This signature is being discussed with LASSOS team.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-25T22:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-28T04:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.83", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-02-25 23:23\n - Time at C2: 2023-02-25 19:38\n - Radial speed: 920.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 58 deg\n - Eruption location: N10W48\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 682.00 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-02-28 04:44 (i.e. predicted transit time: 57.10 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T03:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-28T03:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.02", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 970 km/s \nSolar wind speed: 450 km/s\nDuration time: 1 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T03:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-28T05:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.98", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 970 km/s \nSource location: N26W43 \nSolar wind speed: 450 km/s\nDuration time: 1 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T04:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.25", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T05:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.33", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 25/2319\nRadial velocity (km/s): 940\nLongitude (deg): 22W\nLatitude (deg): 9S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.25", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 25/2255\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1104\nLongitude (deg): 53W\nLatitude (deg): 16N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 58" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T12:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T08:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.68", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1339.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1416.67\nAcceleration: -4.61423\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 131666.87\nDuration in days: 1.5239221\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -4.61 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 809.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 27/02/2023 Time: 08:12 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T12:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-28T04:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.65", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1339.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 772.677\nAcceleration: -0.566203\nDuration in seconds: 205046.22\nDuration in days: 2.3732202\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.57 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 656.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 28/02/2023 Time: 04:35 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T12:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.35", "predictionNote" : "SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images show an asymmetric halo CME towards the west-\nnorthwest appearing in the C2 field of view at 19:36UTC February 25. The\nprojected speed is around 1000km/s. The event is associated to the M6.3\nflare, and an on disc dimming in SDO 193 images and filament eruption SDO\n304 images. Given the source location on disc and the halo extent in\ncoronagraph images the CME is estimated to have an Earth directed component\nand model runs indicate an estimated arrival around 18:00UTC February 27.\n\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux became further enhanced after the M6.3\nflare, crossing the 10pfu event threshold around 21:10UTC. The proton flux\nis expected to remain above the event threshold over the next day before\nstarting to decay.\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and\nis expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h\nelectron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal\nlevels over the next 24 hours.\n\nAn equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity that transited the central\nmeridian earlier is expected to add to the solar wind perturbations\nstarting late tomorrow February 27.\n\nSolar wind speed increased gently reaching just over 500km/s by the end of\nthe period. The interplanetary magnetic field was enhanced reaching a\nmagnitude of 11nT. The northsouth component of the magnetic field was\nvariable with an extended period of southward orientation in the afternoon\nof February 25 (Bz down to -8nT). The orientation of the magnetic field\nshowed a switch from the positive (field away from the Sun) to the negative\n(field towards the Sun) sector around 7UTC this morning.\nSolar wind conditions are expected to become perturbed with subsequently\nthe arrival late today of the February 24 CME then followed by a\ncombination of the arrival of the February 25 CME and the high speed stream\nfrom the equatorial negative polarity coronal hole late tomorrow. Solar\nwind speed is expected to reach over 600 km/s." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T15:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T21:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.02", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (OSIRIS-REx, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-02-26T15:14:35Z\n## Message ID: 20230226-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230226-AL-001). Based on updated analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx and STEREO A (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-03-01T01:25Z and STEREO A at 2023-02-28T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-02-27T21:58Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are (event downgraded to C-type):\n\nStart time of the event: 2023-02-25T19:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~920 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 58 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 48/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230225_232300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230225_232300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230225_232300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230225_232300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230225_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230225_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230225_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.3 flare with ID 2023-02-25T18:40:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-02-25T19:44Z (see notifications 20230225-AL-001, 20230225-AL-002). \n\nThe CME event is also associated with an SEP event at STEREO A with ID 2023-02-25T20:41:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20230225-AL-004, 20230225-AL-005), an SEP event at GOES-P with ID 2023-02-25T21:10:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20230225-AL-006, 20230225-AL-007), an SEP event at SOHO with IDs 2023-02-25T21:56:00-SEP-001 and 2023-02-25T21:57:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20230225-AL-010).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T15:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.50", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a4b1\nEjecta settings d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrzqs\ncormode: single\n\nThis prediction is based on combined simulation of CMEs: 2023-02-24T20:36Z-CME-001 and 2023-02-25T19:38Z-CME-001 for which no update notification was required; the 2-CME simulation automatically detected an arrival at Earth of CME: 2023-02-24T20:36Z-CME-001 near 2023-02-26T15:20Z but manual attribution of the second expected arrival of CME: 2023-02-25T19:38Z-CME-001 at 2023-02-27T23:00Z was required." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T21:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T18:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 79.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.87", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (OSIRIS-REx, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-02-26T21:43:09Z\n## Message ID: 20230226-AL-007\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230226-AL-003).\n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-02-27T13:35Z and 2023-02-28T00:24Z (average arrival 2023-02-27T18:25Z) for 16% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-02-27T10:30Z and 2023-02-28T00:55Z (average arrival 2023-02-27T18:10Z) for 79% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 57% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-26_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020/20230225_224600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-26_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020/20230225_224600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-26_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020/20230225_224600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-26_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020/20230225_224600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-26_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020/20230225_224600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-26_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020/20230225_224600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event is also predicted to have a glancing blow at OSIRIS-REx at 2023-03-01T01:25Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230226-AL-003).\n\nThis CME event (2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.3 flare with ID 2023-02-25T18:40:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-02-25T19:44Z (see notifications 20230225-AL-001, 20230225-AL-002).\n\nThe CME event is also associated with an SEP event at STEREO A with ID 2023-02-25T20:41:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20230225-AL-004, 20230225-AL-005), an SEP event at GOES-P with ID 2023-02-25T21:10:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20230225-AL-006, 20230225-AL-007), an SEP event at SOHO with IDs 2023-02-25T21:56:00-SEP-001 and 2023-02-25T21:57:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20230225-AL-010).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-26_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020/Detailed_results_20230225_224600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA020.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-27T00:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-28T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "9.53", "predictionNote" : "Enter predicted CME shock arrival time in format : 2023-02-28T00:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive (percentage): 60%\nKp Range Lower Limit: 5\nKp Range Upper Limit: 7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T22:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 76.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.375, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.875, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16330.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T21:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 79.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16330.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-02-24T20:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T18:43Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo CME seen mostly to the NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2A coronagraphs. The CME is associated with an M3.7-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3229. The flare induces a large nearby filament channel to break and lift off seen best in SDO/GOES 304, but also in SDO 193 and GOES-16 195. The flare and CME are also associated with a small enhancement in 10 MeV protons observed at GOES. The likely arrival of this CME (possibly a glancing blow) is first seen at 2023-02-26T18:43Z in DSCOVR data as a rapid increase in magnetic field from 10 nT to near 20 nT as well as a simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 470 km/s to 540 km/s and density from 10 to 20 particles/cc.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-24T22:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T06:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.77", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1441.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1521.42\nAcceleration: -5.24281\nDuration in seconds: 121891.35\nDuration in days: 1.4107795\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -5.24 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 882.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/02/2023 Time: 06:27 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-24T22:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T03:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.75", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1441.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 828.063\nAcceleration: -0.932477\nDuration in seconds: 199279.82\nDuration in days: 2.3064794\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.93 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 642.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 27/02/2023 Time: 03:57 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-24T23:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T18:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.13", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-02-24 23:01\n - Time at C2: 2023-02-24 20:36\n - Radial speed: 1441.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 39 deg\n - Eruption location: N24W20\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 838.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-02-26 18:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 45.92 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-24T23:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T13:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.88", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, OSIRIS-REx, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-02-24T23:50:04Z\n## Message ID: 20230224-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-02-24T20:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1441 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 20/24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A, OSIRIS-REx (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2023-02-26T17:38Z, OSIRIS-REx at 2023-02-28T16:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2023-02-27T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-02-26T13:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 7-9 (strong to extreme).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001) is associated with an M3.7 flare with ID 2023-02-24T20:03:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-02-24T20:30Z and SEP Predictions from the modeled HESPERIA/REleASE SOHO/EPHIN based forecasts with IDs 2023-02-24T21:53:00-SEP-001 and 2023-02-24T21:53:00-SEP-002 (see notification 20230224-AL-001). \n\nAnalysis of this event is ongoing. Updates may be provided as more imagery becomes available.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-25T04:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.48", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-02-24T23:17Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1323\nLongitude (deg): W019\nLatitude (deg): N29\nHalf-angular width (deg): 36\n\nNotes: Filament eruption overlying AR3229 M3.7 flare 24/2030UTC, Type IV, 1204 Type II and 10cm radio bursts. Fast and clear concentric CME shocks seen NW of Sun-Earth line, fitted to innermost complete ring shock at 2154 C3 and 2153 COR2, then 9 total C3 points. Reasonable confidence in fit matching emission loc and Type II speed, little difference in FoV of St A and C3 main u/c. Arrives roughly coincident with CIR leading CH79/-. Deterministic Enlil run central in its ensemble, spread roughly +/-6h. Kp7 suggested.\n\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-25T04:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T23:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.35", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 1600 km/s \nSource location: N24W20 \nSolar wind speed: 400 km/s\nDuration time: 1.25 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-25T04:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T22:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.32", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 1600 km/s \nSouce location: N24W20 \nSolar wind speed: 400 km/s\nDuration time: 1.25 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-25T05:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.40", "predictionNote" : "Enter predicted CME shock arrival time: 2023-02-26T14:00Z\n(Optional) Confidence that the CME will arrive (percentage): 60%\n(Optional) Kp Range Lower Limit: 5\n(Optional) Kp Range Upper Limit: 7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-25T13:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-27T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "28.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.93", "predictionNote" : "#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30225\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Feb 2023, 1244UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 25 Feb 2023 until 27 Feb 2023) SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Feb 2023 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Feb 2023 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 039 PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Feb 2023 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 083\nCOMMENT: Solar flaring activity was moderate. Despite the decay observed in NOAA active region 3229 over the past days, it was the source of the strongest flare of the period: an M3.7 flare peaking at 20:30UTC, following new flux emergence ahead of the leading spot. Another M flare was observed from NOAA active region 3235, while NOAA active region 3234 only produced low C level flaring.\nNOAA active region 3236 showed growth with now mixed polarities in the vicinity of the leading spot. Also the leading spot of NOAA active region\n3234 grew and the region maintains the mixed polarity spots in the trailing area.\nFlaring at M level is expected with also a potential for C class flaring.\n\nThe M3.7 flare came associated with radio bursts and filament eruption from the same location. A full halo CME was recorded associated to the event.\nThe CME is first visible in the C2 field of view starting 20:36UTC. It is mainly directed towards the northwest but has a full halo extent. Given the location of the source and the halo extent it is expected that the CME has an Earth directed component. Modelling runs indicate an arrival around February 26." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-25T21:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T14:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.583, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.4, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.40", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-02-25T21:52:32Z ## Message ID: 20230225-AL-008 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230224-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 40 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-02-26T07:05Z and 2023-02-26T21:05Z (average arrival 2023-02-26T15:56Z) for 72% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-02-26T06:28Z and 2023-02-26T22:27Z (average arrival 2023-02-26T14:03Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 80% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 6-8 range (moderate to severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-25_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019/20230224_203600_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-25_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019/20230224_203600_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-25_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019/20230224_203600_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-25_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019/20230224_203600_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-25_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019/20230224_203600_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-25_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019/20230224_203600_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have impacts to OSIRIS-REx at 2023-02-28T16:00Z (glancing blow) and Solar Orbiter at 2023-02-27T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230224-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-25_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019/Detailed_results_20230224_203600_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA019.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T12:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "5.78", "predictionNote" : "SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images show an asymmetric halo CME towards the west-\nnorthwest appearing in the C2 field of view at 19:36UTC February 25. The\nprojected speed is around 1000km/s. The event is associated to the M6.3\nflare, and an on disc dimming in SDO 193 images and filament eruption SDO\n304 images. Given the source location on disc and the halo extent in\ncoronagraph images the CME is estimated to have an Earth directed component\nand model runs indicate an estimated arrival around 18:00UTC February 27.\n\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux became further enhanced after the M6.3\nflare, crossing the 10pfu event threshold around 21:10UTC. The proton flux\nis expected to remain above the event threshold over the next day before\nstarting to decay.\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and\nis expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h\nelectron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal\nlevels over the next 24 hours.\n\nAn equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity that transited the central\nmeridian earlier is expected to add to the solar wind perturbations\nstarting late tomorrow February 27.\n\nSolar wind speed increased gently reaching just over 500km/s by the end of\nthe period. The interplanetary magnetic field was enhanced reaching a\nmagnitude of 11nT. The northsouth component of the magnetic field was\nvariable with an extended period of southward orientation in the afternoon\nof February 25 (Bz down to -8nT). The orientation of the magnetic field\nshowed a switch from the positive (field away from the Sun) to the negative\n(field towards the Sun) sector around 7UTC this morning.\nSolar wind conditions are expected to become perturbed with subsequently\nthe arrival late today of the February 24 CME then followed by a\ncombination of the arrival of the February 25 CME and the high speed stream\nfrom the equatorial negative polarity coronal hole late tomorrow. Solar\nwind speed is expected to reach over 600 km/s." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-26T14:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T15:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "3.97", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a4b1\nEjecta settings d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrzqs\ncormode: single\n\n\nPlease enter the full notification:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T20:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 72.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.125, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16346.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-26T18:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16346.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-02-21T02:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-02-21T02:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-02-24T12:08Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME seen in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The CME is partially obscured by the pylon in SOHO LASCO C3. Potential source eruption starts around 2023-02-21T00:00Z and is a filament eruption characterized by movement/lift-off in SDO AIA 304, dimming in SDO AIA 193, post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and opening field lines in SDO AIA 171/193. Also visible in the NW of STEREO A EUVI 195. This CME may deflect towards the south in the field of view. Arrival signature discussed by Tarik Salman (LASSOS): Possible ICME encounter starting around 2023-02-24T12:08UT. This coincides with the start of a coherent period of field components and decreasing proton density. The total magnetic field is not significantly elevated over the background. The field components have constant profiles for extended periods which can be an indication of a possible glancing blow. This ICME is also observed to be expanding at L1. A possible end of this ICME is around 2023-02-25T07:26UT.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-21T18:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-24T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.62", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/23855/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-02-21T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=24.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=463.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2023-02-21T11:33Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-02-24T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-22T02:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-24T07:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.25, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.25, "confidenceInPercentage" : 16.67, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.98", "predictionNote" : "Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-02-24T11:23Z and 2023-02-24T11:23Z (average arrival 2023-02-24T11:23Z) for 2% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-02-24T02:27Z and 2023-02-24T12:55Z (average arrival 2023-02-24T07:41Z) for 16% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 79% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018/20230221_024800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018/20230221_024800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018/20230221_024800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018/20230221_024800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018/20230221_024800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018/20230221_024800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018/Detailed_results_20230221_024800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA018.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-24T14:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 16.67, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16400.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-24T14:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 16.67, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16400.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-02-17T20:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-02-20T09:52Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Asymmetric halo CME associated with X2.2 flare from AR3229 (N25E65) at 17/1957UT, with an EUVI wave and with the eruption seen as dimming (as far east as -20 deg), best noticeable in STEREO A EUVI 195. The bright bulk of the CME seems to have gone in the more Eastern direction. The likely arrival of this CME is signified by a sharp increase in magnetic field to 14 nT, accompanied by a sudden jump in ion density to over 17 particles/cm^3 and of the solar wind speed from 370 to 430 km/s.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-18T01:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-19T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.40", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nBoM ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.7\nGrid: 256x30x90\nResolution: low\nAmbient settings: \nEjecta settings: \nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: \n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nAsymmetric halo CME associated with X2.2 flare from AR3229 at 17/1957UT. A clear frontside eruption is visible in GOES SUVI 284 imagery.\n\nThe centre of the shock front passes behind STEREO-A. However, it is very broad, and modelling shows a clear impact with Earth." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-18T10:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-20T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.87", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-02-18T01:45\nRadial velocity (700km/s): \nLongitude (deg): 9E\nLatitude (deg): 4S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: Bulk of ejecta observed towards east with 2 CMEs modelled. This second CME significantly slower than primary modelled CME.\nSpace weather advisor: Alister McHardy" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-18T12:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-20T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.25", "predictionNote" : "Event id=\"305\"" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-18T17:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-19T10:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.67", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-02-18T17:12:04Z\n## Message ID: 20230218-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on O-type CME with ID 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230218-AL-001). \n\nThe updated CME parameters below are based on the analysis of the asymmetrical halo (not the bright bulk of the CME analyzed for the previous notification 20230218-AL-001):\n\nStart time of the event: 2023-02-17T20:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1487 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Lucy. The leading edge of the CME may reach Mars at 2023-02-21T00:25Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-02-19T03:40Z, STEREO A at 2023-02-19T09:44Z, and Lucy at 2023-02-20T12:45Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-02-19T10:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \nActivity ID: 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001) is associated with X2.2 flare with ID 2023-02-17T19:38:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13229 (N25E65) which peaked at 2023-02-17T20:16Z (see notifications 20230217-AL-001, 20230217-AL-002).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-18T17:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-19T17:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.53", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-02-17 22:08\n - Time at C2: 2023-02-17 20:23\n - Radial speed: 1487.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N04E20\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 852.10 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-02-19 17:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 45.13 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-18T19:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-20T10:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.05", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nCME Event ID: A9116\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-02-17 23:06:00Z \nRadial velocity (km/s): 1158 km/s\nLongitude (deg): -52 deg\nLatitude (deg): 11 deg\nHalf-angular width (deg): 40 deg\n \nNotes from Forecast Discussion issued: 2023 Feb 19 0030 UTC, prepared by Space Weather Prediction Center:\nThe associated CME from the X2.2 flare on 17 Feb was analyzed and\nmodeled. Arrival of the CME is expected around midday on 20 Feb. Arrival\ntimes from modeling varied from late on 19 Feb to early on 21 Feb." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-19T02:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-19T10:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.2, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.62", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20230218-AL-001 and 20230218-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-02-19T05:31Z and 2023-02-19T19:26Z (average arrival 2023-02-19T10:03Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2023-02-20T16:56Z and 2023-02-21T13:48Z (average arrival 2023-02-21T00:54Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-02-19T06:05Z and 2023-02-19T19:32Z (average arrival 2023-02-19T10:14Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 7-9 range (strong to extreme).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-18_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171/20230217_202300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-18_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171/20230217_202300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-18_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171/20230217_202300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-18_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171/20230217_202300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-18_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171/20230217_202300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-18_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171/20230217_202300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-18_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171/20230217_202300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-18_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171/20230217_202300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis CME event (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Solar Orbiter at 2023-02-19T03:40Z and at Lucy at 2023-02-20T12:45Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230218-AL-002).\n\nThis CME is associated with X2.2 flare with ID 2023-02-17T19:38:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13229 (N25E65) which peaked at 2023-02-17T20:16Z (see notifications 20230217-AL-001, 20230217-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-18_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171/Detailed_results_20230217_202300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX171.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-19T15:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-20T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.87", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/23815/1\n\nModel Inputs - this prediction (unlike two other predictions that are based on the analysis of the asymmetrical halo) is based on the analysis of the bright bulk of the CME with the longitude corresponding to the location of the associated X2.2 class flare from 13229 (N25E65):\n\n2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-65.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=1297.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-02-17T22:59Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Minor Impact (glancing blow):\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-02-20T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-21T10:26Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-19T09:54Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-20T04:46Z\nLucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-21T12:00Z\n\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\nInner Planets animations: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif \n\nEarth timelines: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-19T18:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-20T02:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.18", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1487.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 853.041\nAcceleration: -1.10298\nDuration in seconds: 196436.39\nDuration in days: 2.2735693\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.10 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 636.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 20/02/2023 Time: 02:56 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-19T23:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.71429, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16499.07", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-20T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16499.07", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-02-11T11:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-02-11T11:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-02-13T17:02Z", "maxKP" : 5.33, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The CME visible N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. There is a more clear bulk portion that shows filamentary structures within it and then a more faint partial halo seen more clearly in difference imagery. The source is a filament eruption from the region NE of AR13216, there is also subsequent brightening, potential flaring from AR13216 during this eruption. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: Arrival is marked by the enhancement of the B field over the background, accompanied by a drop in proton density and the start of a low-density period. Temperature data seems to be sensitive. A significant data gap makes it difficult to analyze the nature of field rotations. However, the rotations might not be significant due to a possible flank crossing. Due to that, at L1, the flux rope is possibly not encountered.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-11T17:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-13T11:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.70", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-02-11T17:20:39Z\n## Message ID: 20230211-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-02-11T11:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1888 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -15/30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-02-11T11:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Lucy (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2023-02-14T22:16Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-02-12T19:59Z, STEREO A at 2023-02-13T05:53Z, and Lucy at 2023-02-14T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-02-13T11:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-02-11T11:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230211_125800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230211_125800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230211_125800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230211_125800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230211_125800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230211_125800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230211_125800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230211_125800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nThis simulation represents the potential shock of the CME and thus may overestimate potential impacts. Additional analysis is ongoing.\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-11T20:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-13T02:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.03", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-02-11 12:58\n - Time at C2: 2023-02-11 11:12\n - Radial speed: 1888.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 34 deg\n - Eruption location: N30E15\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 972.40 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-02-13 02:32 (i.e. predicted transit time: 39.33 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-12T06:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-14T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.28", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-02-11T04:18Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1700\nLongitude (deg): E012\nLatitude (deg): N26\nHalf-angular width (deg): 27\n\nNotes: Low confidence in fit, due to shock and other CMEs leading to difficult analysis. Glancing arrival possible - mainly shock, rather than ejecta.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-12T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-12T12:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.03", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1888.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1980.49\nAcceleration: -8.29437\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 91191.390\nDuration in days: 1.0554559\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -8.29 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 1224.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/02/2023 Time: 12:31 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-12T07:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-13T12:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.95", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1888.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 1070.78\nAcceleration: -2.72942\nDuration in seconds: 175884.09\nDuration in days: 2.0356955\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.73 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 590.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/02/2023 Time: 12:03 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-02-13T23:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-13T16:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.8, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.8, "confidenceInPercentage" : 58.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6.13", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-02-14T13:11:53Z\n## Message ID: 20230214-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID: 2023-02-11T11:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230211-AL-003).\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-02-13T05:51Z and 2023-02-13T18:16Z (average arrival 2023-02-13T11:49Z) for 75% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2023-02-14T19:22Z and 2023-02-15T09:08Z (average arrival 2023-02-15T03:16Z) for 62% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-02-13T09:14Z and 2023-02-13T21:02Z (average arrival 2023-02-13T16:10Z) for 58% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 64% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169/20230211_111500_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169/20230211_111500_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169/20230211_111500_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169/20230211_111500_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169/20230211_111500_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169/20230211_111500_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169/20230211_111500_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169/20230211_111500_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-02-11T11:12:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have a glancing blow at Solar Orbiter at 2023-02-12T19:59Z (plus minus 7 hours) and Lucy at 2023-02-14T16:00Z based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230211-AL-003).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-02-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169/Detailed_results_20230211_111500_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX169.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-13T09:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 49.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16659.90", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-02-13T11:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 49.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16659.90", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-01-20T16:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-01-20T16:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-01-23T02:59Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME directed mainly south in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 imagery which is embedded within CME: 2023-01-20T13:36Z. The source is a C5.3-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3190 located near S15W13 seen in SDO 193/304/171 with brightening at the source and opening field line movement followed by a broad area of dimming to the south, east, and west. Magnetic field discontinuity indicates arrival of the interplanetary shock near 2023-01-23T02:59Z with simultaneous rapid density and velocity increases.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-20T19:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-23T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.88", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-REx, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-01-20T19:06:28Z\n## Message ID: 20230120-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-01-20T13:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~806 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 41/-36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-01-20T13:38:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2023-01-20T16:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~684 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 7/-32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2023-01-20T16:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect OSIRIS-REx (minor impact). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-01-24T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-01-23T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-01-20T13:38:00-CME-001, 2023-01-20T16:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230120_195500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230120_195500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230120_195500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230120_195500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2023-01-20T16:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.3 flare with ID 2023-01-20T13:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-01-20T14:07Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-20T21:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-23T10:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.62", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, OSIRIS-REx, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-01-20T22:20:16Z\n## Message ID: 20230120-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2023-01-20T13:38:00-CME-001 and 2023-01-20T16:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230120-AL-004).\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-01-23T07:01Z and 2023-01-24T01:54Z (average arrival 2023-01-23T17:05Z) for 62% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-01-23T01:58Z and 2023-01-23T20:45Z (average arrival 2023-01-23T10:36Z) for 87% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 64% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-20_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167/20230120_181000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-20_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167/20230120_181000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-20_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167/20230120_181000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-20_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167/20230120_181000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-20_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167/20230120_181000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-20_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167/20230120_181000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThese CME events are also predicted to have an impact at OSIRIS-REx at 2023-01-24T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230120-AL-004).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-20_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167/Detailed_results_20230120_181000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX167.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-23T12:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-23T18:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-9.42", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-23T15:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 53.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-17177.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-23T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 53.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-17177.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-01-15T03:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-01-15T03:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-01-17T21:10Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the E/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M6.0 flare from AR 3191 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-15T03:20Z. Opening of field lines is visible off the eastern limb in SDO AIA 171 at this time, and post-eruptive dimming appears around 03:45Z in SDO AIA 193. Arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with B total reaching 15 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 387 km/s at 2023-01-17T20:53Z to 488 km/s at 2023-01-18T02:08Z. Additional increases in density and temperature. Signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing. This arrival may also be associated with CME: 2023-01-14T21:36Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-15T17:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-17T03:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.12", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1024.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1093.16\nAcceleration: -2.83198\nDuration in seconds: 171229.26\nDuration in days: 1.9818201\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.83 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 608.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/01/2023 Time: 03:21 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-15T17:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-17T17:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.07", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1024.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI:10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]\nu_r = 601.632\nAcceleration: 0.462275\nDuration in seconds: 223010.60\nDuration in days: 2.5811412\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.46 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 704.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/01/2023 Time: 17:44 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-15T21:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-17T10:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.83", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-01-15 07:08\n - Time at C2: 2023-01-15 03:48\n - Radial speed: 1024.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 29 deg\n - Eruption location: S19E44\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: M6.0 (S23E32). Peak at 2023-01-15 03:08\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 709.14 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-01-17 10:34 (i.e. predicted transit time: 54.78 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-16T00:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-18T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.17", "predictionNote" : "M6.0 flare 15/0342 from AR3191(N12E54). CME first visible in LASCO C2 2023-01-15T0348UT. Predominately eastward and south, Enlil model output shows a possible weak edge reaching Earth 18-Jan ~04UT. Confidence low due to ~E50 longitude. CAT params T2023-01-15 07:57, lat: -15, lon: -49, cone: 37, vel: 838" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-17T14:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-17303.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-17T14:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-17303.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-01-14T21:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-01-14T21:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-01-17T21:10Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible as a partial halo to the W/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M4.6 flare from AR 3182 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-14T20:35Z. An opening of field lines is visible in SDO AIA 171 at 20:50Z and post eruptive loops start to form in SDO AIA 193 around 22:30Z. Eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with B total reaching 15 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 387 km/s at 2023-01-17T20:53Z to 488 km/s at 2023-01-18T02:08Z. Additional increases in density and temperature. Signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing. This arrival may also be associated with CME: 2023-01-15T03:48Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-15T13:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-19T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "29.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.67", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-01-15T09:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 400\nLongitude (deg): 046W\nLatitude (deg): 30S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 53\n\nNotes: \"Clear lift off from region of AR3182 as a result of two concurrent flares [treated as one event here for modelling]. Liftoff appears on AIA94 at around time indicated. Clear fit on both C3, C2 and STEREO A. Good confident fit\". Edit - MTL - reanalysis did not sig alter above save 27W and 341km/s details, prob worse fit compared with emission loc, and RPS's wholly preferred.\nSpace weather advisor: MTL on behalf of RPS" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-15T16:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-18T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.05", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/23320/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-01-14T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=39.0, Lat.=-29.0, Speed=326.0, HalfAngle=48.0, Time21.5=2023-01-15T08:55Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-01-18T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-01-19T02:38Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-15T18:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-19T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 14.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 14.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "33.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.77", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-16T00:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-19T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "44.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.83", "predictionNote" : "M4.6 flare CME first visible LASCO C2 2023-01-14T2212Z CAT params T2023-01-15 13:09, lat -16, lon 41, cone 45, vel 236. (very slow speed). Forecaster looked at M3.5/M4.6 pair as two events a southwest CME with the M3.5 and an overlapping westward CME with the M4.6." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-16T00:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-19T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "49.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.83", "predictionNote" : "\"Assuming this is the M3.5 flare/CME just before the M4. CAT params T2022-01-15 08:47, lat -34, lon 46, cone 38, vel 315km/sec (slow). Enlil run shows an Earth miss. Guestimate of possible arrival time.\" - Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-16T18:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-18T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.67", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-01-15 09:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 400\nLongitude (deg): 46W\nLatitude (deg): 30S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 53\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-19T07:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "34.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-17303.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-19T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "31.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-17303.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2023-01-12T02:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2023-01-12T02:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-01-14T21:50Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME with an interesting mushroom shape - or likely two or even three very close successive CMEs NNW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely a gradual eruption(s) in and NW of AR 3185 (N20W28) seen starting around 2023-01-12T01:00Z as seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 with post-eruptive arcades near the AR and in the location NE of the AR. Arrival is likely associated with the interplanetary shock observed at L1 on 2023-01-14T21:50Z. This signature was characterized by an increase in Btotal to 11nT and solar wind speeds up to ~500 km/s. It was also accompanied by slight increases in density and temperature. Per advice from the LASSOS team, this arrival is likely a glancing blow due to the lack of a clear rotation in magnetic field components/flux rope signature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-12T18:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-15T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 2.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.08", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/23278/1\nModel Inputs:\n2023-01-12T02:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=24.0, Lat.=33.0, Speed=645.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2023-01-12T08:08Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-01-15T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=2\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-01-15T08:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230112_080800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-15T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 2.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-17375.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-15T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 2.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-17375.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-12-30T16:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2023-01-03T16:26Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME seen to the SW in STEREO Ahead along the SW streamer during a SOHO data gap. Likely associated with ejecta following an M1.4-class flare from AR13176. A distinct EUV wave is visible in GOES SUVI 195 starting around 2022-12-30T15:28Z to the S/SW of the eruption and continues to spread with some deflection to the south, likely due to a nearby coronal hole. There is also some dimming seen to the SW of the eruption that may have been caused by an earlier eruption starting around 2022-12-30T11:30Z which could be associated with a potential separate CME feature (bulk) in the white-light imagery just ahead of the wider measurable portion of this CME. Due to some uncertainty caused by the lack of SOHO imagery, the two CMEs are treated together here as one. The arrival is seen on 2023-01-03 when B_total initially increased from 3nT to 10nT and was accompanied by an increase in density and speed at the arrival of the sheath.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-12-30T20:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-02T00:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-40.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "92.20", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, STEREO B, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-12-30T20:14:15Z\n## Message ID: 20221230-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-12-30T16:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~811 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -3/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, STEREO B, and Mars (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2023-01-02T12:53Z, STEREO A at 2023-01-02T09:05Z, STEREO B at 2023-01-01T22:34Z, and Mars at 2023-01-04T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-01-02T00:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.4 flare from AR13176 (N19E08) with ID 2022-12-30T15:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-12-30T15:28Z. This analysis is preliminary and additional updates may be made. \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-12-31T14:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-02T05:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.52", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-12-30 21:46\n - Time at C2: 2022-12-30 16:53\n - Radial speed: 811.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 31 deg\n - Eruption location: S14E03\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 649.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2023-01-02 05:03 (i.e. predicted transit time: 60.18 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-01T17:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-02T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.92", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2023-01-01T17:31:09Z\n## Message ID: 20230101-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20221230-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars (minor impact), Solar Orbiter (minor impact), STEREO A (minor impact), and STEREO B (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2023-01-05T12:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-01-03T02:00Z, STEREO A at 2023-01-03T06:00Z, and STEREO B at 2023-01-03T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-01-02T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are (event downgraded to S-type):\n\nStart time of the event: 2022-12-30T16:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~452 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 14/-24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221231_003100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221231_003100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221231_003100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221231_003100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221231_003100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221231_003100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221231_003100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221231_003100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221231_003100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.4 flare from AR 13176 (N19E08) with ID 2022-12-30T15:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-12-30T15:28Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2023-01-01T21:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-02T21:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 12.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.88", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-01-01T21:33:24Z ## Message ID: 20230101-AL-002 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230101-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2023-01-03T00:47Z and 2023-01-03T08:35Z (average arrival 2023-01-03T04:13Z) for 66% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-01-02T18:20Z and 2023-01-03T04:45Z (average arrival 2023-01-02T21:59Z) for 12% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 89% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163/20221230_165300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163/20221230_165300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163/20221230_165300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163/20221230_165300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163/20221230_165300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163/20221230_165300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163_STA_stack.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis CME is also predicted to have an impact at Mars at 2023-01-05T12:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-01-03T02:00Z, and STEREO B at 2023-01-03T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see previous notification 20230101-AL-001).\n\nThis CME event (2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.4 flare from AR 13176 (N19E08) with ID 2022-12-30T15:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-12-30T15:28Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163/Detailed_results_20221230_165300_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX163.txt\n\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-02T11:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 12.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-17644.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2023-01-02T12:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 12.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-27.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-17644.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-12-01T07:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-12-01T07:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-12-04T12:09Z", "maxKP" : 4.33, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is an M1.0 class flare from AR 13152 (N27W35) which is located just north of a large coronal hole which may have caused deflection of the CME. The eruption is best seen in SDO/AIA 94, 131, 193, and 171 with brightening seen in SDO/AIA 304. It is visible across multiple SDO/AIA wavelengths and also in STEREO A EUVI 195. Magnetic amplification at L1, only reaching about 8 nT but followed by component rotation. Plasma data inconclusive, but may possibly be a weak ICME arrival superposed with existing coronal hole high speed stream influence.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-12-01T11:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-12-03T09:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.80", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/22597/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-12-01T07:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=17.0, Lat.=27.0, Speed=1306.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2022-12-01T10:22Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-12-03T09:37Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =20.2 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-12-04T22:02Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-12-03T03:34Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-12-03T12:42Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-12-03T09:37Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221201_102200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-12-01T13:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-12-04T00:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.48", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-12-01 10:22\n - Time at C2: 2022-12-01 07:48\n - Radial speed: 1306.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 30 deg\n - Eruption location: N27W17\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: M1.0 (N28W34). Peak at 2022-12-01 07:04\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 604.07 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-12-04 00:50 (i.e. predicted transit time: 65.05 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-12-01T16:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-12-03T17:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : 12.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.95", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-12-01T16:20:17Z\n## Message ID: 20221201-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-12-01T07:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20221201-AL-001 and 20221201-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A, STEREO B, and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-12-03T12:01Z and 2022-12-03T15:45Z (average arrival 2022-12-03T13:53Z) for 4% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-12-03T09:19Z and 2022-12-04T01:39Z (average arrival 2022-12-03T17:08Z) for 12% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2022-12-04T21:36Z and 2022-12-05T17:27Z (average arrival 2022-12-05T06:44Z) for 8% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-12-03T09:19Z and 2022-12-04T01:11Z (average arrival 2022-12-03T17:17Z) for 12% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 78% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161/20221201_074800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161/20221201_074800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161/20221201_074800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161/20221201_074800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161/20221201_074800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161/20221201_074800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161/20221201_074800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161/20221201_074800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161/20221201_074800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161/20221201_074800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2022-12-01T07:48:00-CME-001) is also predicted to arrive at Solar Orbiter around 2022-12-03T03:34Z, based on previous heliospheric modeling (see previous notification 20221201-AL-002).\n\nThis CME event (2022-12-01T07:48:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.0 flare with ID 2022-12-01T07:04:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-12-01T07:21Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161/Detailed_results_20221201_074800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX161.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-12-03T17:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 12.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-18368.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-12-03T17:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 12.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-18368.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-11-19T09:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-11-19T09:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-11-22T06:22Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Seen in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The CME appears far out of the field of view after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 and is first visible at 2022-11-19T12:23Z. Filament was centered around N40E30 on the Earth-facing disk but the liftoff in SDO AIA 304 appeared to deflect towards the west. Post-liftoff dimming is also seen in the NE of STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery at 2022-11-19T12:25Z. Eruption starts off slow around 06:30Z and is nearly fully lifted off by 10:00Z. LASSOS team (Tarik Mohammad): A possible minor CME arrival (possibly w/o a flux rope). Total magnetic field remains very low (6 nT). The possible end of this CME can be 2022-11-23T04:38Z. Around this time, proton density seems to start increasing and expansion seems to cease. The field components also start to fluctuate.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-11-19T20:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-11-22T04:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.87", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO B, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-11-19T20:30:50Z\n## Message ID: 20221119-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-11-19T09:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~627 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-11-19T09:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO B, Mars (minor impact), Solar Orbiter (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO B at 2022-11-22T06:14Z, Mars at 2022-11-23T18:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2022-11-21T16:00Z, and STEREO A at 2022-11-22T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-11-22T04:51Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-11-19T09:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_145900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_145900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_145900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_145900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_145900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_145900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_145900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_145900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_145900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-11-20T01:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-11-22T01:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.833, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.367, "confidenceInPercentage" : 58.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.55", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO B, Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-11-20T02:12:02Z ## Message ID: 20221120-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-11-19T09:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20221119-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A, STEREO B, and Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-11-22T01:29Z and 2022-11-22T12:47Z (average arrival 2022-11-22T07:08Z) for 8% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-11-21T21:29Z and 2022-11-22T07:59Z (average arrival 2022-11-22T04:05Z) for 66% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2022-11-23T10:57Z and 2022-11-23T17:43Z (average arrival 2022-11-23T13:52Z) for 12% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-11-21T18:30Z and 2022-11-22T05:42Z (average arrival 2022-11-22T01:20Z) for 58% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-19_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158/20221119_094800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-19_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158/20221119_094800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-19_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158/20221119_094800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-19_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158/20221119_094800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-19_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158/20221119_094800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-19_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158/20221119_094800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-19_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158/20221119_094800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-19_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158/20221119_094800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-19_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158/20221119_094800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-19_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158/20221119_094800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nBased on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20221119-AL-001) this CME event (2022-11-19T09:48:00-CME-001) is also predicted to reach Solar Orbiter at 2022-11-21T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-19_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158/Detailed_results_20221119_094800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX158.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-11-22T03:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 58.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-18662.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-11-22T03:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 58.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-18662.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-11-14T03:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-11-14T03:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-11-18T15:49Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Visible in the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. May be associated with eruption from AR 13145 (N25W35), visible as a filament eruption directed southward from the AR in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2022-11-14T02:59Z, triggered by a C3.3 flare peaking 2022-11-14T02:49Z. No STEREO A EUVI imagery available during real-time analysis due to beacon data gap. Arrival signature (courtesy of Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team): ICME signature around 2022-11-18T15:00Z where both By and Bz change signs. This CMEs might have interacted with the CME arriving on 2022-11-17. The CME exhibits compression (negative expansion), see the increasing speed. This might explain the peaks and compression observed in proton density. A possible end of this ICME can be around 2022-11-19T12:24Z, after that the field becomes turbulent.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-11-14T13:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-11-17T12:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-27.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "98.60", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/22285/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-11-14T03:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=36.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=488.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2022-11-14T10:24Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-11-17T12:11Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =22.2 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-17T13:01Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-19T22:00Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-17T10:30Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-11-14T18:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-11-17T10:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.7, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "93.27", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO B, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-11-14T18:49:29Z\n## Message ID: 20221114-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-11-14T03:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20221114-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2022-11-17T02:17Z and 2022-11-17T21:55Z (average arrival 2022-11-17T13:50Z) for 64% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2022-11-18T17:59Z and 2022-11-19T09:27Z (average arrival 2022-11-19T03:06Z) for 18% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-11-17T03:27Z and 2022-11-17T15:06Z (average arrival 2022-11-17T10:10Z) for 25% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 89% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157/20221114_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157/20221114_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157/20221114_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157/20221114_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157/20221114_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157/20221114_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157/20221114_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157/20221114_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2022-11-14T03:24:00-CME-001) is associated with C3.3 flare with ID 2022-11-14T02:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-11-14T02:49Z. This CME may also arrive as a glancing blow at STEREO A around 2022-11-17T10:30Z (plus minus 7 hours), based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20221114-AL-001).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-11-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157/Detailed_results_20221114_032400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX157.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-11-17T11:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-18749.12", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-11-17T11:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-18749.12", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-11-13T11:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-11-13T11:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-11-17T02:58Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME faintly visible in the S in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. May be associated with eruption near S40W05, dimming visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning 2022-11-13T08:59Z. May possibly be associated with a filament liftoff, but SDO AIA data gaps make that hard to ascertain. Arrival signature (by Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team):There can be two possible ICME start times: the first one is around 2022-11-17T02:58Z. The choice of this start time is based on Bz becoming positive from negative and the start of rotations (not exactly smooth) in the field components. This start time also coincides with a drop in proton density. Alternative choice of start time can be 2022-11-17T11:36Z when both Bx and By change signs. This also corresponds to another drop in proton density and the speed profile exhibiting expansion (see the decreasing speed).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-11-13T15:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-11-17T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "83.93", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/22276/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-11-13T11:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=307.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2022-11-13T22:41Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-11-17T07:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-19T10:00Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-17T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-11-17T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-18785.97", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-11-17T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-18785.97", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-10-01T13:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T07:05Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Visible in the W in STEREO A COR2, partial halo W in SOHO LASCO C3. Overtakes previous narrow CME in coronagraph imagery. May be associated with large eruption from AR 13113 (N16W21), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2022-10-01T12:04Z. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: We can have a potential CME arrival at 2022-10-04T07:05Z. As you can see, we do have a smooth-like rotation in the Z-component of magnetic field. Also, in the same period, the ion density and temperature seem to decrease from higher levels. A potential end of this CME (flux rope) could be 2022-10-05T02:46Z. After this, you can see the components are too fluctuating (or noisy).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-10-01T16:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T05:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.50", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a4b1\nEjecta settings d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrzqs\ncormode: single\n\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Mars, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-10-01T16:47:10Z\n## Message ID: 20221001-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-10-01T13:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~671 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 28/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may affect Mars and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2022-10-05T20:07Z and STEREO B at 2022-10-04T14:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-10-04T05:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-10-01T12:24:00-CME-001, 2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nThis CME (2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001) was modeled with another CME (2022-10-01T12:24:00-CME-001) that is not expected to impact any missions.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-10-01T19:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T05:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.58", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-10-01 16:51\n - Time at C2: 2022-10-01 13:09\n - Radial speed: 671.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 40 deg\n - Eruption location: N05W28\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 607.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-10-04 05:49 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.67 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-10-01T22:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T07:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.7, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.57", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-10-02T13:18:28Z\n## Message ID: 20221002-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20221001-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A, STEREO B, and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-10-03T19:26Z and 2022-10-04T03:38Z (average arrival 2022-10-03T23:52Z) for 35% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-10-04T09:02Z and 2022-10-05T00:33Z (average arrival 2022-10-04T16:55Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2022-10-05T14:45Z and 2022-10-06T08:59Z (average arrival 2022-10-05T23:50Z) for 97% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-10-04T00:29Z and 2022-10-04T13:41Z (average arrival 2022-10-04T07:11Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 88% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-10-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151/20221001_130900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-10-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151/20221001_130900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-10-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151/20221001_130900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-10-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151/20221001_130900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-10-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151/20221001_130900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-10-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151/20221001_130900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-10-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151/20221001_130900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-10-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151/20221001_130900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-10-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151/20221001_130900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-10-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151/20221001_130900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001) was not predicted to arrive at STEREO A in previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20221001-AL-002).\n\nThe initial non-ensemble model of this CME (2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001) included another CME (2022-10-01T12:24:00-CME-001) that is not expected to impact any missions.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-10-01_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151/Detailed_results_20221001_130900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX151.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-10-02T06:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.75", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-10-01T16:43Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 850\nLongitude (deg): 45W\nLatitude (deg): 3N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 38\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-10-02T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T10:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.08", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 671.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 730.633\nAcceleration: -1.12003\nDuration in seconds: 251252.85\nDuration in days: 2.9080191\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.12 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 449.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 04/10/2022 Time: 10:56 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-10-02T12:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T10:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.92", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 671.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 409.953\nAcceleration: 1.43053\nDuration in seconds: 251338.51\nDuration in days: 2.9090105\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.43 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 769.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 04/10/2022 Time: 10:57 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2022-10-02T17:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T05:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.08", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2022-10-01 13:09:00\nInitial Shock Speed: 671 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 430 km/s\nDuration Time: 1.5 hrs\n\nOutput Results: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-10-04 05:19:02" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2022-10-02T17:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T00:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.97", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2022-10-01 13:09:00\nSource Longtitude: 28\nSource Latitude: 5\nInitial Shock Speed: 671 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 430 km/s\nDuration Time: 1.5 hrs\n\nOutput results: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-10-04 00:19:49" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-10-02T18:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.98", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-10-03T08:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.08", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings: \nENLIL version: 2.9e\nResolution: medium\nAmbient settings: a8b1\nEjecta settings: d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrbqs\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes from 2022-10-03T00:30Z Forecast Discussion:\nThree CMEs from 01 Oct have been analyzed. The first CME was off the W limb at 01/1253 UTC in STEREO A COR2 imagery, and was associated with an approximate 22 degree long filament eruption centered near N15W14. The second and third CMEs were associated M-flare activity on 01 Oct and were observed off the NW limb in LASCO C2 imagery at 01/2036 UTC and 02/0236 UTC. Model output suggests the final CME overtaking the two earlier CMEs en route, and arriving at earth at around 04/0000 UTC.\n\nNotes from 2022-10-02T12:30Z Forecast Discussion:\nPreliminary modelling of the 01/1253 UTC\nand 01/2036 UTC CMEs show the potential for a glancing blow late on 03 Oct to early 04 Oct, however confidence is low due to imagery gaps." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T05:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 58.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-19837.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-04T05:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-19837.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-09-28T05:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-09-28T05:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-10-01T15:05Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is seen to the East in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. There is a notable eruption signature from the eastern side of AR 13110 (centered near N15E18) starting around 2022-09-28T03:40Z as seen in all SDO/AIA wavelengths. The filament portion is most clearly seen in SDO/AIA 304.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-09-28T22:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-01T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.07", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/21788/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-09-28T05:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=481.0, HalfAngle=14.0, Time21.5=2022-09-28T11:07Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-10-01T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-09-29T13:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-09-30T09:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.28", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-09-28 07:41\n - Time at C2: 2022-09-28 04:48\n - Radial speed: 1085.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 22 deg\n - Eruption location: N10E30\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 731.50 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-09-30 09:48 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.00 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-09-29T20:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-01T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.85", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-09-29T20:14:51Z\n## Message ID: 20220929-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-09-28T04:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1085 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -30/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-09-28T04:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and STEREO B (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-09-29T10:49Z, STEREO A at 2022-09-30T14:35Z, and the flank will reach STEREO B at 2022-10-02T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-10-01T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-09-28T04:48:00-CME-001, 2022-09-28T05:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nThis simulation also includes an S-type CME with activity ID 2022-09-28T05:24:00-CME-001 that is not predicted to impact NASA missions.\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-01T02:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-19901.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-01T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-19901.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-09-28T04:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-09-28T04:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-10-01T15:05Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is seen to the East/Northeast of SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 and initially not seen in COR2A because of a large data gap. Possibly merged with 2022-09-28T05:24Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-09-30T16:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-01T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.77", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a4b1\nEjecta settings d4t1x1\nWSA version: 2.2\nGONG: mrzqs\ncormode: single\n\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-09-29T20:14:51Z\n## Message ID: 20220929-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-09-28T04:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1085 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -30/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-09-28T04:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and STEREO B (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-09-29T10:49Z, STEREO A at 2022-09-30T14:35Z, and the flank will reach STEREO B at 2022-10-02T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-10-01T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-09-28T04:48:00-CME-001, 2022-09-28T05:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nThis simulation also includes an S-type CME with activity ID 2022-09-28T05:24:00-CME-001 that is not predicted to impact NASA missions.\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-09-30T20:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-01T00:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.02", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-09-30T20:04:54Z\n## Message ID: 20220930-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-09-28T04:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220929-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-09-30T09:13Z and 2022-09-30T16:54Z (average arrival 2022-09-30T12:36Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-09-30T21:49Z and 2022-10-01T05:11Z (average arrival 2022-10-01T00:32Z) for 75% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-09-30_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150/20220928_044800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-09-30_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150/20220928_044800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-09-30_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150/20220928_044800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-09-30_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150/20220928_044800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-09-30_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150/20220928_044800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-09-30_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150/20220928_044800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2022-09-28T04:48:00-CME-001) was also predicted to impact Parker Solar Probe at 2022-09-29T10:49Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20220929-AL-001).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-09-30_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150/Detailed_results_20220928_044800_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX150.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-01T03:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-19901.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-10-01T03:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-19901.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-09-09T07:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-09-09T07:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-09-14T06:23Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "A faint CME in SOHO white light and running difference imagery which is seen as even fainter in STEREO A imagery with no true leading edge to analyze. It is directed mostly to the north in SOHO imagery and to the north and east in STEREO A. While the coronagraph imagery seems to suggest that the CME source is located on the Earth-facing disk, a preliminary triangulation using SWPC_Cat results in a broad area on the Earth-facing disk where no source seems to actually erupt. The analysis is therefore pretty speculative. The CME overlaps a few other faint CMEs which increases the difficulty of the analysis. The interplanetary shock is characterized by a jump in solar wind speed, density, temperature and B_total. There is another subsequent increase at 2022-09-14T08:44Z, leading to an increase in B_total above 10 nT. Some magnetic field rotation is present.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-09-10T15:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-09-13T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "86.67", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/21595/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-09-09T07:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-12.0, Lat.=43.0, Speed=264.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2022-09-09T22:51Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-09-13T21:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220909_225100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-09-11T05:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-09-15T00:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.42", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-09-10T02:51Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 232\nLongitude (deg): 008W\nLatitude (deg): 20N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 50\n\nNotes: Diffuse possible halo with unknown source. H-alpha imagery gap between roughly 07-09Z on 09 September may mean filament was missed. Some concurrent far-side activity may mean some misattribution of ejecta. Visible faintly on both St A COR2 and Lasco. Seems to interact with CIR, possibly from CH22 and lags main CME front on ecliptic. Earth lies at bottom edge of main front. G1 may result if concurrent with CH22's CIR.\n\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2022-09-12T09:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-09-14T03:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.77", "predictionNote" : "Input:\nInitial speed: 264 km/s \nSource location: E12N43 \nSolar wind speed: 430 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr (default)\n\nOutput:\nThe shock will reach the Earth at 2022-09-14 03:34:40" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2022-09-12T09:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-09-11T22:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 0.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-55.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.70", "predictionNote" : "Input:\nInitial shock speed: 264 km/s \nSource location: E12N43 \nSolar wind speed: 430 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr (default)\n\nOutput\nThe shock will not reach our Earth!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-09-13T17:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-20318.55", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-09-14T00:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-20318.55", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-08-27T02:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-08-27T02:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-08-29T02:57Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Clearly visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3; moves quickly through FOV. Associated with eruption and flare from AR 13088, clearly visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-08-27T01:55Z and in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 beginning 2022-08-27T01. Arrival signature identified by LASSOS team/Tarik Salman: the shock is seen around 2022-08-29T02:57Z with a sharp increase in the total magnetic field and proton density. The sheath following this IP shock ends on 2022-08-30T10:46Z, followed by the flux rope. The sheath exhibits enhanced magnetic field and plasma signatures. According to the CME Scoreboard, the arrival would likely be synonymous with CME: 2022-08-27T02:23Z which was expected to arrive on average (8 entries) around 2022-08-29T02:11Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-27T04:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-28T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.95", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes from 2022-08-27T12:30Z Forecast Discussion:\nA CME associated with the M4 flare at 27/0240 from Region 3088 was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the west at 27/0224 UTC. Model output suggests a glancing blow is possible late 28 Aug/early 29 Aug." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-27T12:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-28T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.00", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-27T13:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-29T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.03", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Mars, OSIRIS-REx, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-08-27T13:55:19Z\n## Message ID: 20220827-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-08-27T02:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1372 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 56/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-08-27T02:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), Mars, OSIRIS-REx, and STEREO B. The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2022-09-09T18:00Z, Mars at 2022-08-29T19:52Z, OSIRIS-REx at 2022-08-28T21:14Z, and STEREO B at 2022-08-29T06:29Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-08-29T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-08-27T02:23:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220827_045700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220827_045700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220827_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220827_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220827_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220827_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220827_045700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220827_045700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220827_045700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220827_045700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Dawn_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2022-08-27T02:23:00-CME-001) is associated with M4.8 flare with ID 2022-08-27T01:52:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-08-27T02:40Z and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-08-27T11:55:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220827-AL-002, 20220827-AL-003).\n\nThis CME may possibly arrive at Parker Solar Probe around 2022-08-28T00:00Z, based on the simulation animation, but PSP has been removed from the simulation outputs due to its perihelion pass taking it inside the ENLIL inner boundary.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-27T16:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-29T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.12", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-08-27T05:15Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1250\nLongitude (deg): 044W\nLatitude (deg): 06S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 40\n\nNotes: Glancing impact, majority of material passing ahead of Earth. \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-27T20:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-28T21:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.33", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-08-28T10:18:08Z\n## Message ID: 20220828-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-08-27T02:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220827-AL-005). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2022-08-28T21:16Z and 2022-08-29T12:06Z (average arrival 2022-08-29T04:51Z) for 29% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2022-08-29T13:41Z and 2022-08-30T14:40Z (average arrival 2022-08-30T01:18Z) for 87% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-08-28T21:36Z and 2022-08-28T21:36Z (average arrival 2022-08-28T21:36Z) for 2% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-27_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146/20220827_022300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-27_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146/20220827_022300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-27_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146/20220827_022300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-27_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146/20220827_022300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-27_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146/20220827_022300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-27_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146/20220827_022300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-27_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146/20220827_022300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-27_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146/20220827_022300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2022-08-27T02:23:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have impacts at Juno (glancing blow) at 2022-09-09T18:00Z and OSIRIS-REx at 2022-08-28T21:14Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling. A possible arrival at Parker Solar Probe around 2022-08-28T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) was also indicated by previous heliospheric modeling, but PSP has been removed from the simulation outputs due to its perihelion pass taking it inside the ENLIL inner boundary (see notification 20220827-AL-005).\n\nThis CME event (2022-08-27T02:23:00-CME-001) is associated with M4.8 flare with ID 2022-08-27T01:52:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-08-27T02:40Z, SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-08-27T11:55:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220827-AL-002 and 20220827-AL-003), and SEP at SOHO with ID 2022-08-27T11:12:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20220827-AL-006).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-27_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146/Detailed_results_20220827_022300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX146.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-28T00:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-29T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.30", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-28T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-28T18:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.95", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1250.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1325.27\nAcceleration: -4.08634\nDuration in seconds: 145568.87\nDuration in days: 1.6848249\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -4.09 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 730.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 28/08/2022 Time: 18:49 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-28T12:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-29T14:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.78", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1250.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 724.350\nAcceleration: -0.259897\nDuration in seconds: 214840.95\nDuration in days: 2.4865851\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.26 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 668.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 29/08/2022 Time: 14:03 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-29T02:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.6, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-20705.98", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-28T23:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-20705.98", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-08-18T11:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-08-20T17:24Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The CME has a separate shock that is wider than the bulk of the CME. The bulk is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. The shock is wider and more faint. There is a visible EUV wave along the SE of the source location as seen in SDO/AIA 193, moving/opening field lines are visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. Filament material is seen ejecting from the source location in SDO/AIA 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195. The eruption begins around 10:10Z with a flare as the potential trigger. The arrival is characterized by a rapid increase in solar wind density, magnetic field intensity, temperature, and speed with some component rotations present in the magnetic field after a period of very little to no rotation present in the magnetic field starting around 2022-08-20T17:24Z. These arrival signatures may be that of an ICME sheath that is followed by a flux rope beginning 2022-08-21T03:55Z but may also include more than one ICME arrival given the complexity of the solar wind signature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-18T16:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-21T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.67", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/21269/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=17.0, Lat.=-30.0, Speed=1076.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2022-08-18T14:10Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-08-21T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-08-19T13:32Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-08-21T03:04Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Dawn_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-18T16:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-21T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.60", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO B, Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-08-18T16:48:07Z\n## Message ID: 20220818-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-08-18T11:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1076 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 17/-30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO B, Mars (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-08-19T13:44Z, STEREO B at 2022-08-21T02:13Z, Mars at 2022-08-22T08:00Z, and STEREO A at 2022-08-21T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-08-21T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220818_141000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001) is associated with an M1.3 flare with ID 2022-08-18T10:04:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-08-18T10:09Z from AR 13078 (S25W35) and possibly the M1.5 flare with ID 2022-08-18T10:37:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-08-18T10:55Z from AR 13078 (S25W35).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-18T21:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-20T16:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.22", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-08-18 14:10\n - Time at C2: 2022-08-18 11:00\n - Radial speed: 1076.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 35 deg\n - Eruption location: S30W17\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 728.80 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-08-20 16:13 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.22 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-18T21:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-21T02:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.783, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.583, "confidenceInPercentage" : 34.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.50", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO B, Mars, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-08-19T13:49:24Z ## Message ID: 20220819-AL-003 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on the CME with ID 2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220818-AL-003). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B and Mars. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2022-08-20T17:39Z and 2022-08-21T05:09Z (average arrival 2022-08-21T00:04Z) for 90% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2022-08-22T03:54Z and 2022-08-22T07:10Z (average arrival 2022-08-22T05:32Z) for 6% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-08-20T18:32Z and 2022-08-21T07:54Z (average arrival 2022-08-21T02:19Z) for 34% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 96% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145/20220818_110000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145/20220818_110000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145/20220818_110000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145/20220818_110000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145/20220818_110000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145/20220818_110000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145/20220818_110000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145/20220818_110000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact to Parker Solar Probe at 2022-08-19T13:44Z and a glancing blow to STEREO A at 2022-08-21T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20220818-AL-003). This CME event (2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001) is associated with an M1.3 flare with ID 2022-08-18T10:04:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-08-18T10:09Z from AR 13078 (S25W35) and possibly the M1.5 flare with ID 2022-08-18T10:37:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-08-18T10:55Z from AR 13078 (S25W35).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145/Detailed_results_20220818_110000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX145.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-19T00:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-21T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.98", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-19T12:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-21T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.07", "predictionNote" : "See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:\n:Issued: 2022 Aug 19 1237 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 20819\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Aug 2022, 1236UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Aug 2022 until 21 Aug 2022) \nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Aug 2022 10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 013 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2022 10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 034 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 21 Aug 2022 10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 015\nCOMMENT: Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. NOAA AR 3078 is the most complex region on disk and was responsible for most of the flaring activity, including two M-class flares: an impulsive M1.3 and a long duration M1.6, peaking on August 18 at 14:13 UT and August 19 at 04:44 UT, respectively. The M1.6 flare was also associated with a Type II and Type IV radio signature. NOAA AR3081 produced low level C-class flares. NOAA AR 3083 and NOAA AR 3082 decayed and were mostly quiet. A new region, NOAA AR3084, emerged near the central meridian, but is small and with a simple magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and there is chance for an X-class flare.\n\nA coronal mass ejection (CME), originating from NOAA AR3078 is first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 11:00 UT on August 18. This event was also associated with a Type II radio emission (speed 749 km/s). Although predominantly directed to the south west, a weak partial-halo shock signature can also be seen. Therefore a glancing blow at Earth may be expected early on August 21. Two further possible CMEs are being investigated: firstly, a dimming associated with the same region, seen in SDO/AIA 193 from 22:16 UT August 18 and secondly, an eruption at 04:45UT August 19 (associated with the reported M1.6 flare). These CMEs will be analysed when the coronagraph data become available." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-20T00:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-20T10:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.40", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1076.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1146.57\nAcceleration: -3.10964\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 169863.20\nDuration in days: 1.9660093\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -3.11 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 618.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 20/08/2022 Time: 10:11 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-20T00:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-21T01:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.23", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1076.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 629.868\nAcceleration: 0.303183\nDuration in seconds: 225720.46\nDuration in days: 2.6125053\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.30 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 698.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 21/08/2022 Time: 01:42 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-20T18:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-20T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-0.60", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 1000\nLongitude (deg): 035W\nLatitude (deg): 40S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 36 \n\nNotes: Added post-arrival for completeness, but was low confidence in our forecasts previous to this time. \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-20T23:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 39.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.16667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.14286, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-20907.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-21T02:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 34.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-20907.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-08-16T15:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-08-16T15:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-08-19T17:02Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source is likely an eruption associated with AR3078 (S24W12). The SDO 193/304/171 A imagery shows a brightening across all wavelengths and some ejecta leaving the active region. There appears to be a divergence in the ejecta noted in the 193 A imagery which a portion of the ejecta deflected to the west and a portion deflected to the south. A definite shock is observed at 2022-08-19T17:02Z with simultaneous, rapid increases in magnetic field intensity, particle speed, and particle density. There appears to be a sheath region followed by smooth rotations in the magnetic field components thereafter, especially for much of 2022-08-20.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-17T15:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-19T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.98", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-08-17T15:03:28Z\n## Message ID: 20220817-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-08-16T15:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~637 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 8/-27 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-08-16T15:24:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may arrive as a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-08-19T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-08-16T15:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220816_210400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220816_210400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220816_210400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-17T19:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-19T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.67", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-08-16T07:40Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 607\nLongitude (deg): 7W\nLatitude (deg): 21S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes: Glancing blow possible\nSpace weather advisor: Duty forecast" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-18T15:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-20T05:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.733, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.267, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.72", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-08-18T16:30:03Z\n## Message ID: 20220818-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2022-08-16T15:24:00-CME-001 and 2022-08-17T14:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20220817-AL-003 and 20220817-AL-004).\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A, STEREO B, and Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-08-20T03:13Z and 2022-08-20T17:57Z (average arrival 2022-08-20T12:07Z) for 83% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-08-19T22:09Z and 2022-08-20T13:03Z (average arrival 2022-08-20T05:29Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2022-08-21T01:10Z and 2022-08-21T15:03Z (average arrival 2022-08-21T08:56Z) for 95% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-08-19T21:25Z and 2022-08-20T14:25Z (average arrival 2022-08-20T05:41Z) for 95% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 78% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144/20220817_182800_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144/20220817_182800_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144/20220817_182800_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144/20220817_182800_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144/20220817_182800_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144/20220817_182800_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144/20220817_182800_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144/20220817_182800_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144/20220817_182800_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144/20220817_182800_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144_STB_stack.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\nThe CME event with ID 2022-08-16T15:24:00-CME-001 is also predicted to have a glancing blow at Parker Solar Probe at 2022-08-18T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling. The CME event with ID 2022-08-17T14:53:00-CME-001 is associated with M2.0 flare with ID 2022-08-17T13:26:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-08-17T13:45Z from Active Region 13078 (S21W25). This CME is also predicted to have an impact at Parker Solar Probe at 2022-08-18T20:42Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20220817-AL-004). \n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-08-18_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144/Detailed_results_20220817_182800_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX144.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-19T17:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-20931.90", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-19T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-20931.90", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-08-14T12:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-08-14T12:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T02:16Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Visible as a partial halo situated to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption from AR 13076 lifting off at approximately 2022-08-14T11:42Z. Best seen in SDO AIA 193 as a EUV wave, brightening, and post eruptive arcades. Best seen in SDO AIA 304 as dark filament material lifting off the disk to the west. Also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195. Update: There is a definite shock on 2022-08-17T02:16Z which indicates the arrival of a CME, but it is possible the arrival is also associated with a CME first seen on 2022-08-13T18:48Z. Details about arrival in 2022-08-13T18:48Z note.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-14T15:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.38", "predictionNote" : "See prediction from the SIDC Ursigram below:\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 20815\n\nA partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO C2 from around 12:48 UTC on August 14 with a speed of around 650 km/s. The CME is related to an on disc filament eruption in the north-western quadrant and was associated to the long duration C2.4 flare and type II radio emission.\n\nThe bulk of the CME is directed to the south-west but an impact at Earth is expected early on August 17.\"\\" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-14T17:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-16T22:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.73", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, OSIRIS-REx, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-08-14T17:32:34Z\n## Message ID: 20220814-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-08-14T12:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~817 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 7/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-08-14T12:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, and OSIRIS-REx (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2022-08-18T06:42Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2022-08-15T20:47Z, STEREO A at 2022-08-16T18:55Z, and STEREO B at 2022-08-17T04:16Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2022-08-17T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-08-16T22:22Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-8 (minor to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-08-14T12:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_163600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_163600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_163600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_163600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-14T21:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.52", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-08-14:17:47Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 620\nLongitude (deg): 11W\nLatitude (deg): 5S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 37\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-15T05:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.62", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-15T09:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T15:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.27", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 620.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 678.256\nAcceleration: -0.897627\nDuration in seconds: 269081.66\nDuration in days: 3.1143710\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.90 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 436.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/08/2022 Time: 15:32 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-15T09:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T12:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.18", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 620.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 382.260\nAcceleration: 1.55431\nDuration in seconds: 257560.86\nDuration in days: 2.9810284\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.55 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 782.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/08/2022 Time: 12:20 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-16T00:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.78", "predictionNote" : "Enter predicted CME shock arrival time: 2022-08-17T09:00\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70%\nKp Range: 4-6" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T06:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 78.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.4, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-20994.67", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 72.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-20994.67", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-08-13T18:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T02:16Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible in the SSE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the SSW of STEREO A COR2. Source eruption is seen as an EUV wave and dimming near AR 13078 starting around 2022-08-13T15:30Z and best seen in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195. \n\nThere is a definite shock on 2022-08-17T02:16Z which indicates the arrival of a CME, but it is possible the arrival is also associated with a CME first seen on 2022-08-14T12:48Z. Apart from temperature, we observe sudden jumps in the total magnetic field, proton density, and bulk speed. A sheath region appears to follow the shock. The sheath region can be seen as having turbulent field components, elevated total magnetic field, proton density, and temperature compared to the background solar wind. The high-speed stream can be identifiable starting around 2022-08-17T14:34Z by looking at the compression in the total magnetic field and proton density and increasing bulk speed and temperature afterward.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-13T23:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.70", "predictionNote" : "A lopsided, southward CME is visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 13/1848UT. An eruption is visible in GOES SUVI 284 from 13/1527UT around S30E27, associated with AR3078 (S26E22, beta(At time of eruption)). \n\nModelling indicates the majority of the material is headed too far south to be geoeffective, but that a component will impact Earth at 17/0400UT." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-14T15:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.97", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-08-14T15:18:34Z\n## Message ID: 20220814-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-08-13T18:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~569 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -9/-33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001\n\n2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-08-13T19:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~387 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -1/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-08-13T19:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow) and STEREO B (glancing blow). The combined flank of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-08-15T18:00Z and STEREO B at 2022-08-17T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-08-17T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001, 2022-08-13T19:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_005300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_005300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_005300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_005300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220814_005300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-08-15T13:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-16T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.05", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-08-15T13:13:01Z\n## Message ID: 20220815-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220814-AL-002). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), STEREO A (glancing blow), and STEREO B (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-08-15T14:00Z, STEREO A at 2022-08-16T14:00Z, and STEREO B at 2022-08-17T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-08-16T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\nStart time of the event: 2022-08-13T18:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~679 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -9/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe previous simulation result did not include an arrival at STEREO A (see previous notification 20220814-AL-002) and included an S-type CME event with Activity ID 2022-08-13T19:48:00-CME-001.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T00:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-20994.67", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-08-17T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-20994.67", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-07-21T01:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T02:28Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "A faint, full halo CME seen in SOHO running difference imagery that seems to be associated with a C5.6-class flare occurring around the Sun's center disk from AR3060 and possibly combines with CME 2022-07-21T01:36Z, a brighter CME seen to the NE in SOHO coronagraph imagery. A Stereo-Ahead coronagraph data gap at this time increases the uncertainty of the analysis. While the halo is fast, it is visually diffuse and thus any Kp predicted by the simulation may be higher than is merited for this case. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival is also associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:36Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-21T06:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.47", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes from 2022-07-21T12:31Z Forecast Discussion:\n\nA full halo CME associated with a long duration C5 flare at 21/0111 UTC was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery near 21/0148 UTC. Type II (1063 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions associated with this event were observed by RSTN observatories. Forecaster analysis/WSA Enlil modelling estimates CME arrival early on 23 Jul.\n\nNotes from 2022-07-22T00:31Z Forecast Discussion:\n\nBy late on 22 Jul to early on 23 Jul, the 21 Jul Halo CME is expected to arrive with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels likely and a chance for G3 (strong)." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-21T13:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 18.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 18.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.67", "predictionNote" : "A type II radio emission on 21 July 01:21UT could be associated with the\nC5.6-class flare from region NOAA AR 3060. Stereo A COR2A appears to have a\ndata gap from that period. Based on the radio emission alone an impact may\nbe expected late 22-early 23, but this assessment is highly speculative." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-21T16:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-22T16:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.70", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-07-21T16:46:00Z\n## Message ID: 20220721-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-07-21T01:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~950 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -18/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: O-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-07-21T01:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1355 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 2/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-07-22T07:20Z, STEREO A at 2022-07-22T19:09Z, STEREO B at 2022-07-22T21:45Z, and Mars at 2022-07-25T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-07-22T16:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 8-9 (severe to extreme).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001, 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nWhile the halo associated with CME: 2022-07-21T01:48Z is fast, it is visually diffuse and thus the Kp predicted by the simulation may be higher than is merited for this case. The simulation also contains CME: 2022-07-21T01:25Z which is not expected to impact any missions. This CME event (2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.6 flare with ID 2022-07-21T01:02:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-07-21T01:11Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-21T18:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T01:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.30", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-07-21 03:55\n - Time at C2: 2022-07-21 01:48\n - Radial speed: 1355.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N08W02\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 812.50 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-07-23 01:15 (i.e. predicted transit time: 47.45 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-21T18:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.62", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-07-21T04:09Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 917\nLongitude (deg): E02\nLatitude (deg): N12\nHalf-angular width (deg): 44\n\nNotes: Low confidence due to faint and diffuse full halo. No STEREO imagery available at the time of the CME.\nSpace weather advisor: Dean Hall" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-21T22:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-22T15:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.22", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-07-22T11:11:45Z\n## Message ID: 20220722-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001 and 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220721-AL-003). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-07-22T13:02Z and 2022-07-22T20:31Z (average arrival 2022-07-22T16:42Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-07-22T16:38Z and 2022-07-23T01:33Z (average arrival 2022-07-22T20:31Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-07-22T11:40Z and 2022-07-22T19:30Z (average arrival 2022-07-22T15:13Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 8-9 range (severe to extreme).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nWhile the halo associated with CME: 2022-07-21T01:48Z is fast, its coronagraph signature is quite diffuse, so the resulting Kp may be lower than indicated by the simulation outputs.\n\nThese CME events (2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001 and 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001) are also predicted to have an impacts at Parker Solar Probe at 2022-07-22T07:20Z and Mars at 2022-07-25T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20220721-AL-003). The previous heliospheric modeling simulated these two CMEs (2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001 and 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001) along with one other CME (2022-07-21T01:25:00-CME-001) which is not anticipated to impact any missions.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/Detailed_results_20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-22T01:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.33", "predictionNote" : "CME three-dimensional parameters (by Ice-cream Cone model):\nmain direction: N21E02\nangular width: 120 degree\nvelocity: 870 km/s\nfirst appearance at C2: 2022-07-21 01:48\n\npredicted CME shock arrival time : 2022-07-23T06:00\nConfidence that the CME will arrive (percentage): 70%\nKp Range Lower Limit: 5\nKp Range Upper Limit: 7" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-22T03:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.58", "predictionNote" : "Very small filament eruption and very faint CME. Unsure if halo represents a CME or a shockwave in the corona. The absence of STEREO-A imagery adds uncertainty to the model, cannot be confident of direction." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-22T05:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-22T15:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.47", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1355.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1433.10\nAcceleration: -4.71117\nDuration in seconds: 134943.00\nDuration in days: 1.5618403\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -4.71 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 797.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 22/07/2022 Time: 15:17 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-22T05:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T12:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.30", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1355.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 781.365\nAcceleration: -0.622582\nDuration in seconds: 210205.93\nDuration in days: 2.4329390\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.62 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 650.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/07/2022 Time: 12:11 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-22T23:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.57143, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21594.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T00:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21594.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-07-21T01:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T02:28Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Second of a triplet of CMEs that are difficult to analyze due to ongoing coronagraph data gaps. This CME's source location appears to be associated with dimming seen around the vicinity of N25E10 from 19:30Z to 21:00Z in GOES SUVI 195 imagery due to an ongoing SDO maneuver at the time. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival is also associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:48Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-21T06:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.47", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-21T16:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-22T16:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.70", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-07-21T16:46:00Z\n## Message ID: 20220721-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-07-21T01:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~950 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -18/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: O-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-07-21T01:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1355 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 2/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-07-22T07:20Z, STEREO A at 2022-07-22T19:09Z, STEREO B at 2022-07-22T21:45Z, and Mars at 2022-07-25T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-07-22T16:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 8-9 (severe to extreme).\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001, 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nWhile the halo associated with CME: 2022-07-21T01:48Z is fast, it is visually diffuse and thus the Kp predicted by the simulation may be higher than is merited for this case. The simulation also contains CME: 2022-07-21T01:25Z which is not expected to impact any missions. This CME event (2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.6 flare with ID 2022-07-21T01:02:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-07-21T01:11Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-21T22:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-22T15:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.22", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-07-22T11:11:45Z\n## Message ID: 20220722-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001 and 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220721-AL-003). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-07-22T13:02Z and 2022-07-22T20:31Z (average arrival 2022-07-22T16:42Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-07-22T16:38Z and 2022-07-23T01:33Z (average arrival 2022-07-22T20:31Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-07-22T11:40Z and 2022-07-22T19:30Z (average arrival 2022-07-22T15:13Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 8-9 range (severe to extreme).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nWhile the halo associated with CME: 2022-07-21T01:48Z is fast, its coronagraph signature is quite diffuse, so the resulting Kp may be lower than indicated by the simulation outputs.\n\nThese CME events (2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001 and 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001) are also predicted to have an impacts at Parker Solar Probe at 2022-07-22T07:20Z and Mars at 2022-07-25T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20220721-AL-003). The previous heliospheric modeling simulated these two CMEs (2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001 and 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001) along with one other CME (2022-07-21T01:25:00-CME-001) which is not anticipated to impact any missions.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-21_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139/Detailed_results_20220721_022000_ncmes2_sims24_HILOX139.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-22T19:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21594.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-22T16:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21594.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-07-18T17:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-07-18T17:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T02:28Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Bright CME SW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2. This CME seems to have accelerated over time. Its source seems to be a slow filament eruption mostly SE from AR 3056 (which was located at W40S17 at the time of eruption), possibly stretching along latitude of ~30 deg, with dimming stretching from W10 to W30 and post-eruptive arcades at W30-W50. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival may instead/also be associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:36Z and the CME first detected at 2022-07-21T01:48Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-19T15:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T07:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "83.47", "predictionNote" : "See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:\n:Issued: 2022 Jul 19 1252 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 20719\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jul 2022, 1251UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Jul 2022 until 21 Jul 2022) \nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2022 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 024 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2022 10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 016 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jul 2022 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 019\nCOMMENT: Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours.\nThe largest flare observed was an C3.9 flare, peaking at 18 July 23:54 UT, originating from NOAA AR 3058. The flaring activity is expected to be at low levels with C-class flares expected, while M-class flares are possible.\n\nA CME can be seen in Stereo A on 18 July 17:53 UT. This seems to be associated with activity about that time around NOAA AR 3056 and an associated dimming. Chances of a glancing blow early-mid 23 July cannot be excluded, but the confidence is low." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T07:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21594.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-23T07:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21594.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-07-15T15:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-07-15T15:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-07-18T20:40Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo N in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with large north-central filament eruption beginning 2022-07-15T13:02Z, visible in GOES-16 SUVI 171/304. The CME arrival signature is characterized by magnetic amplification accompanied by a jump on solar wind speed and density. Some time later (2022-07-19T04:00Z) there is a drop in temperature and a change of magnetic component pattern to a more smooth one, probably indicating the arrival of magnetic cloud. B_total reached a peak of over 16 nT at 2022-07-19T00:23Z. This looks more like a flank impact of a CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-15T16:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-19T11:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.80", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20843/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-07-15T15:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=1.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=382.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2022-07-15T23:31Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-07-19T11:04Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =23.9 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.7\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-07-18T11:10Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-07-19T07:51Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-07-19T15:15Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-16T02:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-20T00:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.17", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-16T13:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-18T12:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.67", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-07-15 23:33\n - Time at C2: 2022-07-15 15:23\n - Radial speed: 539.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 41 deg\n - Eruption location: N21W12\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 567.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-07-18 12:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.60 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-16T13:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-19T23:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "26.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.52", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-16T14:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-18T23:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.57", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-07-16T14:06:50Z\n## Message ID: 20220716-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-07-15T15:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~539 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 12/21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-07-15T15:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-07-18T00:41Z, STEREO A at 2022-07-19T05:05Z, STEREO B at 2022-07-19T01:33Z, and Mars at 2022-07-20T10:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-07-18T23:11Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-07-15T15:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-16T18:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-19T06:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : 79.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.13", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-07-16T18:45:39Z\n## Message ID: 20220716-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-07-15T15:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220716-AL-003). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A, STEREO B, and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-07-19T01:42Z and 2022-07-19T12:04Z (average arrival 2022-07-19T06:53Z) for 64% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-07-19T00:41Z and 2022-07-19T14:06Z (average arrival 2022-07-19T08:01Z) for 64% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2022-07-20T10:20Z and 2022-07-20T14:28Z (average arrival 2022-07-20T12:31Z) for 6% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-07-18T21:46Z and 2022-07-19T15:46Z (average arrival 2022-07-19T06:52Z) for 79% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 88% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-16_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137/20220715_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-16_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137/20220715_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-16_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137/20220715_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-16_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137/20220715_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-16_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137/20220715_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-16_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137/20220715_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-16_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137/20220715_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-16_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137/20220715_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-16_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137/20220715_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-16_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137/20220715_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2022-03-07T00:12:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Parker Solar Probe at 2022-07-18T00:41Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20220716-AL-003).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-16_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137/Detailed_results_20220715_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX137.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-16T22:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-19T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : -100, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.83", "predictionNote" : "Likely more northward directed than model indicates due to lopsided CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-18T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-19T00:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.67", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 539.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 595.069\nAcceleration: -0.557332\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nDuration in seconds: 293258.03\nDuration in days: 3.3941902\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.56 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 431.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/07/2022 Time: 00:50 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-18T07:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-18T16:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.50", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 539.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 338.277\nAcceleration: 1.74256\nDuration in seconds: 264642.90\nDuration in days: 3.0629965\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.74 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 799.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 18/07/2022 Time: 16:53 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-19T07:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.25, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21696.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-19T06:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 74.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21696.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-07-08T20:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-07-08T20:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-07-11T09:22Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "An eruption associated with the long-duration M2.5-class solar flare which occurred near N20E40. The CME presents itself as a faint halo in SOHO/C3 imagery and possibly a halo in Stereo-A/COR2A imagery with a bulk component mostly to the east in all available coronagraph imagery. The eruption as seen in coronal imagery is relatively unimpressive with mostly bright post-eruptive arcades and an EUV wave that traverses north and west of the source region best seen in SDO AIA 211 imagery.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-09T15:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-11T07:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.10", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, STEREO B, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-07-09T15:16:02Z\n## Message ID: 20220709-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-07-08T20:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~735 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 47 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -33/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-07-08T20:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A, STEREO B, and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2022-07-11T04:12Z, STEREO B at 2022-07-11T19:55Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2022-07-10T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-07-11T07:56Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-07-08T20:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220709_001400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220709_001400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220709_001400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220709_001400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220709_001400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220709_001400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220709_001400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220709_001400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2022-07-08T20:48:00-CME-001) is associated with M2.5 flare with ID 2022-07-08T20:07:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-07-08T20:49Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-09T15:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-11T11:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.70", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-07-09 00:14\n - Time at C2: 2022-07-08 20:48\n - Radial speed: 735.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 47 deg\n - Eruption location: N02E33\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 626.50 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-07-11 11:19 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.53 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-09T21:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-11T05:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.4, "confidenceInPercentage" : 81.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.83", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-07-09T21:44:28Z\n## Message ID: 20220709-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-07-08T20:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220709-AL-002).\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-07-10T14:08Z and 2022-07-11T08:43Z (average arrival 2022-07-10T23:00Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-07-11T12:08Z and 2022-07-11T12:08Z (average arrival 2022-07-11T12:08Z) for 2% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-07-10T19:40Z and 2022-07-11T15:14Z (average arrival 2022-07-11T05:49Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 81% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136/20220708_233100_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136/20220708_233100_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136/20220708_233100_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136/20220708_233100_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136/20220708_233100_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136/20220708_233100_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136/20220708_233100_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136/20220708_233100_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes: This CME event (2022-07-08T20:48:00-CME-001) is also predicted to arrive as a glancing blow at Parker Solar Probe at 2022-07-10T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous non-ensemble heliospheric modeling (see notification 20220709-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136/Detailed_results_20220708_233100_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX136.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-11T00:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-11T15:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "9.37", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 735.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 796.361\nAcceleration: -1.40803\nDuration in seconds: 240001.16\nDuration in days: 2.7777912\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.41 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 458.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/07/2022 Time: 15:28 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-11T00:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-11T18:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "9.20", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 735.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 444.705\nAcceleration: 1.26944\nDuration in seconds: 249645.16\nDuration in days: 2.8894116\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.27 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 761.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/07/2022 Time: 18:08 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-11T10:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-12T12:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1.10", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-11T15:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 58.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21875.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-11T13:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 58.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21875.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-07-05T04:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-07-05T04:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-07-07T06:02Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This partial halo CME is very faint but can be seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. The source is likely the eruption from AR 3047 seen best in SDO AIA 171 and 304 at 2022-07-05T04:01Z. This eruption is also visible in the SW quadrant of STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. The CME arrival appears to begin mid-day on July 7th with definite and strong rotations in all the field components and there also seems to be a shock characterized by a sharp increase in the total magnetic field and proton density. The end of this CME is not very clear due to the presence of a high speed stream which follows but a further slight enhancement of magnetic field and solar wind speed is noted to start around 2022-07-08T00:21Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-05T20:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-08T14:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "32.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.78", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-07-05T20:15:24Z\n## Message ID: 20220705-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-07-05T04:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~514 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 27/-24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-07-05T04:24:00-CME-001\n\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may affect Parker Solar Probe and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-07-07T06:41Z and STEREO B at 2022-07-08T12:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-07-08T14:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-07-05T04:24:00-CME-001, 2022-07-05T04:48:00-CME-001, 2022-07-04T21:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2022-07-05T04:24:00-CME-001) is associated with C9.8 flare with ID 2022-07-05T03:59:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-07-05T04:07Z from Active Region 13047 (S20W23). The linked simulation results also include a C-type CME with Activity ID: 2022-07-05T04:48:00-CME-001 and a S-type CME with Activity ID: 2022-07-04T21:12:00-CME-001 which are not predicted to have any notable impacts.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-06T05:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-08T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "29.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.15", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-06T17:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-08T14:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 33.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "32.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.38", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-07-06T17:30:59Z ## Message ID: 20220706-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-07-05T04:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220705-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2022-07-08T11:15Z and 2022-07-08T19:47Z (average arrival 2022-07-08T14:26Z) for 79% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-07-08T12:28Z and 2022-07-08T18:25Z (average arrival 2022-07-08T14:19Z) for 33% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 75% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-06_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135/20220705_042400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-06_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135/20220705_042400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-06_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135/20220705_042400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-06_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135/20220705_042400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-06_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135/20220705_042400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-06_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135/20220705_042400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2022-07-05T04:24:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Parker Solar Probe at 2022-07-07T06:41Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20220705-AL-001).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-07-06_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135/Detailed_results_20220705_042400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX135.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-07T06:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-08T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "32.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-0.57", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-08T13:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 32.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "31.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21974.90", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-08T14:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 33.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "32.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21974.90", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-07-03T03:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-07-03T03:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-07-07T08:08Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "A very faint partial halo CME seen West in STEREO A COR2 starting 2022-07-03T03:09Z and very faintly Northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 after 2022-07-03T02:00, barely seen in C3. The CME overlaps with a later West-directed 2022-07-03T04:12Z CME after a couple timestamps in COR2Abut can be seen propagating out almost to the field of view. A possible source of this event could be a very slow, faint but large-area post-eruptive arcades on the southern side of the large coronal hole at disk center on 2022-07-02. These post-eruptive arcades slowly close out more than half of the coronal hole over the course of 2022-07-03, so it potentially there was a very slow large and central filament eruption. Arrival signature is characterized by a rapid increase in solar wind speed, density and temperature and magnetic field to near 8nT with further enhancements to above 20 nT, followed by rotation of magnetic field components and a protracted period of negative Bz reaching almost 20 nT.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-07-04T20:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-07T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.85", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20711/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-07-03T03:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-2.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=247.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2022-07-03T14:09Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-07-07T13:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220703_140900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-07T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21972.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-07T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-21972.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-06-29T02:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-06-29T02:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-07-03T07:01Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2, possible faint partial halo in the N in SOHO LASCO C2. May be associated with filament eruption centered near N25E15, visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning 2022-06-28T21:48Z. Notes on the CME arrival from the LASSOS team: the start of the (sheath and fluxrope) for this CME are not clear. A potential start time for the flux rope can be 2022-07-03T19:20Z, where the rotation starts and density drops below 5 particles per cm^3. The CME signature is impacted by a very brief high speed stream which overtakes the CME at around 2022-07-03T23:00Z, when the density starts to increase.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-29T13:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-03T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "89.97", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20657/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-06-29T02:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=18.0, Speed=294.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2022-06-29T14:14Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-07-03T05:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-07-03T10:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-29T18:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-04T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "34.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "85.02", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes from 2022-06-30T12:30Z Forecast Discussion:\nStarting around 28/2200 UTC, an eruptive filament was observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery near center disk. Available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery did not suggest the bulk of the eruptive material escaped the corona. However, later arriving NASA STEREO A COR2 data shows a faint slow CME on the Earth side of the Sun. The bulk of the material is on a trajectory north of Earth. The slow speeds and trajectory suggest weak glancing blow influence (at most) outside of the\n3-day forecast period. Model runs suggest weak impacts on 4 July." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-03T23:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-22069.92", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-07-03T23:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-22069.92", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-06-13T03:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-06-13T03:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-06-15T04:01Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is seen as a partial halo to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is an eruption from AR 3032 (N21E44) around 2022-06-13T02:45Z seen best in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304. The eruption is accompanied by an M3.4 flare from AR 3032, an opening of field lines, and post eruptive dimming and loops seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, and 193 starting to form around 05:00Z. The eruption is also seen about N30E30 in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304, where an EUV wave is observed in STEREO A EUVI 195 around 03:25Z. L1 arrival signature: B total sharply increased to 14 nT at 04:01Z, accompanied by rotation of magnetic field components and a brief sharp increase in density and temperature. Solar wind velocity increased from around 475 km/s to around 620 km/s in as seen in DSCOVR data. Flux rope is seen some time after 07:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-13T13:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-15T00:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.42", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20480/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-06-13T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-39.0, Lat.=-3.0, Speed=1244.0, HalfAngle=46.0, Time21.5=2022-06-13T06:21Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-06-15T00:21Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =20.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.6\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-06-14T17:24Z\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-06-14T02:00Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-06-15T16:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220613_062100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-13T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-15T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.02", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes from 2022-06-14T12:30Z Forecast Discussion:\n\nThe 13 Jun CME is likely to enhance the solar wind environment on 15-16 Jun as it passes near Earth. Nonetheless the bulk of the ejecta is thought to be off the Sun-Earth line.\n\nBy 15 Jun, G1 (Minor) storm conditions are considered likely, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) and a slight chance of G3 (Strong) storms, in response to the 13 Jun CME. Active conditions are expected to continue into 16 Jun.\n\nNotes from 2022-06-14T00:30Z Forecast Discussion:\n\nThe nearby passage or flanking edge influence of today's CME is expected to be a factor on 15-16 June, potentially causing further disturbances and enhancements in the IMF and solar wind.\n\nMost analysis and model results of the 13 Jun CME conclude a near miss for the brunt of the ejecta behind Earth's orbital position or possibly a flanking influence. Forecast confidence in any glancing blow CME influences is low; conversely, forecast confidence in timing for any CME arrival effects is considered fair.\n\nNotes from 2022-06-13T12:30Z Forecast Discussion:\n\nA long-duration M3/1n flare was observed at 13/0407 UTC from Region 3032 (N21E40, Dai/beta), however, sympathetic flaring was observed from Region 3030 (N20E28, Dao/beta). Type-II and IV radio emissions and radio bursts were observed in conjunction with this event. The associated CME is visible off the east in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 13/0312 UTC and analysis of the event and CME are underway." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-13T17:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-15T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.27", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-06-13T06:45Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1150\nLongitude (deg): E040\nLatitude (deg): S04\nHalf-angular width (deg): 46\n\nNotes: Low confidence, due to Earth being on the edge of the modelled CME.\nSpace weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-13T17:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-15T04:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.18", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-06-13 06:21\n - Time at C2: 2022-06-13 03:12\n - Radial speed: 1244.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 46 deg\n - Eruption location: S03E39\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 779.20 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-06-15 04:47 (i.e. predicted transit time: 49.58 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-13T22:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-14T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.92", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-13T23:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-14T23:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.02", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-06-14T13:37:47Z ## Message ID: 20220614-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-06-13T03:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220613-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-06-14T13:03Z and 2022-06-14T22:18Z (average arrival 2022-06-14T17:14Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-06-15T08:37Z and 2022-06-15T20:11Z (average arrival 2022-06-15T13:30Z) for 31% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-06-14T18:29Z and 2022-06-15T07:24Z (average arrival 2022-06-14T23:52Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 86% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 6-8 range (moderate to severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2022-06-13T03:12:00-CME-001) is also predicted to arrive as a glancing blow at Parker Solar Probe at 2022-06-14T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous non-ensemble heliospheric modeling (see notification 20220613-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/Detailed_results_20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-14T00:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-15T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.18", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-14T09:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-14T20:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.02", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1244.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1319.10\nAcceleration: -4.05144\nDuration in seconds: 147347.24\nDuration in days: 1.7054079\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -4.05 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 722.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 14/06/2022 Time: 20:07 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-14T09:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-15T15:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.97", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1244.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 721.092\nAcceleration: -0.239692\nDuration in seconds: 216330.47\nDuration in days: 2.5038249\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.24 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 669.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 15/06/2022 Time: 15:17 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-15T03:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 64.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.83333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-22504.92", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-15T04:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-22504.92", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-06-02T06:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-06-02T06:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-06-06T09:20Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The likely source for this CME is a filament eruption which is centered around on S35W40 best seen in SDO AIA 193/171/304 A starting around 2022-06-02T05:20Z, though it was noted in SDO 171 that faint field lines were seen leaving the disk which were out-ahead of the eruption off the limb and not associated with the filamentary material. Clear arrival signature at L1: sudden increase in B total to approximately 11.5 nT (eventually going to over 14 nT), accompanied by a sharp temporary increase in density to 51 n(cm^-3) and ion temperature. Clear shock in the magnetic field, rotation of the Bz component (briefly reaching -11 nT), gradual rotation of Bx. Solar wind speed jumped from 260 km/s to approximately 315 km/s.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-02T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-05T16:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "93.33", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 519.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 574.529\nAcceleration: -0.475753\nDuration in seconds: 298180.76\nDuration in days: 3.4511662\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.48 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 432.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 05/06/2022 Time: 16:58 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-02T12:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-05T07:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "93.30", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 519.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 327.417\nAcceleration: 1.78746\nDuration in seconds: 265792.93\nDuration in days: 3.0763071\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.79 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 802.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 05/06/2022 Time: 07:58 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-02T12:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-05T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-32.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "93.23", "predictionNote" : "A wide CME (angular width around 100 degrees) was first seen at 06:12 UT by\nLASCO/C2, with a calculated 3D speed of 750 km/s. The CME originated from a\nfilament eruption close to NOAA AR 3023 (S14W34). This CME has an Earth\ndirected component with expected arrival around 01:00 UT on 5 June (with an\nerror margin of 12 hours). Another filament erupted close to disk center\naround 01:00 UT on 1 June, but did not produce any relevant CME. Due to its\nlocation, a weak and narrow Earth directed CME can not be discarded,\nprobably arriving together with the previous one, or close in time but with\nno significant impact expected." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-02T16:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-05T19:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "89.05", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-06-02T16:17:29Z\n## Message ID: 20220602-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-06-02T06:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~519 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 33/-8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-06-02T06:09:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO B at 2022-06-05T13:47Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-06-05T19:48Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-06-02T06:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220602_130300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220602_130300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220602_130300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220602_130300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-02T16:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-05T04:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "89.00", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-06-02 13:03\n - Time at C2: 2022-06-02 06:09\n - Radial speed: 519.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: S08W33\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 561.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-06-05 04:34 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.42 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-02T22:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-06T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.87", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-06-02T13:15Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 525\nLongitude (deg): W045\nLatitude (deg): S06\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: Low confidence\nSpace weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-02T22:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-05T19:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.2, "confidenceInPercentage" : 71.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.75", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-06-03T12:39:48Z ## Message ID: 20220603-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-06-02T06:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220602-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B and Mars. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2022-06-05T03:34Z and 2022-06-05T16:55Z (average arrival 2022-06-05T09:15Z) for 93% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2022-06-06T16:54Z and 2022-06-06T19:49Z (average arrival 2022-06-06T17:59Z) for 15% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-06-05T14:10Z and 2022-06-06T01:31Z (average arrival 2022-06-05T19:17Z) for 71% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 87% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/Detailed_results_20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-06-03T05:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-05T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : -90, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.22", "predictionNote" : "DSF S30W30-S40W50, CME mostly westward, with some expansion back around to the solar CM, so likely so component will reach the Earth's magnetosphere. Forecasting most likely G1 (maybe chance G2) due to size of the filament (not that big), location being quite south and west, shape of associated CME perhaps biased west, and also speed from CAT not that fast. Though geoeffective magnitude estimate considered difficult. Prediction based on LASCO C2 and C3, no STEREO-A available at the time of use of US CAT tool." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-05T14:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 61.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-22715.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-06-05T18:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-22715.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-05-10T14:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-05-10T14:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-05-13T21:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Visible in the SE and S of SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 and the far south of STEREO A COR2. Associated with an X1.5 flare from AR 3006 starting at 2022-05-10T13:50Z and a subsequent EUV wave seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195. The associated eruption is characterized by dimming best seen in SDO AIA 193. It is also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195. It overlaps with the CME first visible in the southeast of SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-05-10T15:12Z, causing some confusion in its analysis, as there are two simultaneous fronts seen in the first few images of LASCO C2 but only one front clearly seen in COR2A and C3. UPDATE (2022-05-24T) from LASSOS Team: Signature indicating possible interaction of this CME and SIR starting after ~2022-05-14T10:00Z. This interaction makes shock less clear. The SIR clears the region of material that might otherwise propagate the shock. The ICME possibly started before the SIR start - at the end of 2022-05-13 there is a smooth B-field signature indicative of an ICME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-05-10T20:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-13T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.25", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20150/1\n\nThis is a 2-CME simulation including also 2022-05-11T05:12Z CME (which was not predicted by affect the Earth but is expected to affect Stereo A). Parameters of 2022-05-10T14:48Z CME are derived using C2 and COR2A imagery (before C3 imagery becomes available). \n\nModel Inputs:\n2022-05-10T15:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-46.0, Lat.=-33.0, Speed=573.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2022-05-10T21:02Z\n2022-05-10T14:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-19.0, Lat.=-45.0, Speed=365.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2022-05-11T01:02Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-05-13T23:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-05-13T14:18Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_210200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-05-10T23:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-13T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.13", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nThis is a 2-CME simulation together with the 2022-05-10T15:12Z CME. Parameters for the 2022-05-10T15:12Z CME were:\nCME Event ID: A8291, Start Date/Time: 2022-05-11 01:59:00Z, Latitude: -35°, Longitude: 68°, Half Angle: 21°, Radial Velocity: 247 km/s\n\nCME 2022-05-10T14:48Z input parameters\nCME Event ID: A8293\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-05-10 20:18:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 660 km/s\nLongitude (deg): -32°\nLatitude (deg): -28°\nHalf-angular width (deg): 26°\n\nNotes from SWPC Forecast Discussion\n\nIssued: 2022 May 12 0030 UTC\n13-14 May could see an escalation to unsettled levels, with a chance for active conditions and slight chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels should the CME graze Earth instead of passing fully behind Earth's orbit.\n\nIssued: 2022 May 11 1230 UTC\nSolar activity reached high levels following an X1.5/1B flare (R3-Strong\nradio blackout) at 10/1355 UTC from Region 3006 (S31W13,\nEao/beta-gamma). ... Type II (est. speed 718 km/s) and Type IV sweeps were associated with the flare activity, as well as a CME that was first clearly observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery departing the southeast limb at 10/1448 UTC.\nAnalysis was inconclusive as to the actual source of the CME (either the X1 or the C4 flare). However, the analysis did indicate that the vast majority of the ejecta had a trajectory just off the Sun-Earth line, with a slight chance for a flanking portion to graze the Earth sometime on the 13th.\n\nThe narrow CME associated with a prominence/filament eruption extending from the southwest quadrant to beyond the limb was also determined to not have a major Earth-directed component.\n\nFrom NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts\nIssued: 2022 May 11 2200 UTC\nNOAA Kp index forecast 12 May - 14 May\n May 13 \n21-00UT 3" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-05-11T13:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-13T23:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.75", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-05-11T18:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-14T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.07", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20162/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-05-10T14:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=440.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2022-05-10T22:30Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-05-14T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-05-14T02:11Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220510_223000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-13T22:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-23279.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-13T23:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-23279.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-05-03T18:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-05-03T18:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-05-08T06:24Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME is seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the NW in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely the dimming seen near disk center above AR 3004 in SDO AIA 171 around 2022-05-03T15:00Z. This dimming is also observed to the west in STEREO A EUVI 195 around the same time. UPDATE (2022-05-09T16:27Z): Weak arrival signature indicated by sudden but weak field amplification (only to about 8.5 nT), accompanied by component rotation. Because the L1 solar wind is otherwise quiet, we can see an associated pileup beginning around 2022-05-08T08:03Z. The speed and temperature increase, but they're still pretty low at around 330-340 km/s and 25-35 kK, so these are inconclusive. There are potential signs of separate sheath and flux rope at 2022-05-08T06:24Z and 2022-05-08T12:43Z, respectively.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-05-04T18:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-08T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.10", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nNo notification was sent due to the low speed of this CME (226 km/s)." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2022-05-04T23:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-06T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : -135, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2022-05-07T12:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-38.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "78.98", "predictionNote" : ": Product: Dst_alert_status\n: Issued: 04-May-2022 22:00:01 UTC\n: JDIssued: 2459704.41669\n: Number_of_Data_Records: 1\n: Missing_data: 9999\n: Source: SET Stream B (Anemomilos) algorithm\n: version: 3.48\n# Prepared by Space Environment Technologies/Space Weather Division\n# Contact: spacenvironment@spacenvironment.net\n# http://www.spacewx.com\n#\n# Forecast_summary_metadata:\n# AlertIssued is the alert issue time\n# PredictStart is the event predicted start time\n# PredictPeak is the event predicted peak time\n# EL is the wait time in minutes before issuing another alert\n# GX is the alert level on NOAA G scale ranging from G0 to G5\n# G4, G5: WARNING: is issued when a hazardous event is occurring, \n# is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring. \n# A warning is used for very active conditions posing a threat \n# to life or property.\n# G3: ADVISORY: is issued in active to very active conditions \n# that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution \n# is not exercised, it could lead to situations that may threaten \n# life and/or property.\n# G2: WATCH: is issued when the risk of a hazardous event has increased \n# significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is \n# still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead-time in \n# active conditions so that those who need to set their plans in \n# motion can do so.\n# G1: ALERT: is issued when an event threshold is crossed. It contains \n# information that is available at the time of issue.\n# G0: MONITORING: is issued when the geomagnetic conditions are being \n# actively monitored with information that is available at the \n# time of issue.\n# DST is the predicted peak (deepest perturbation) of event in nT\n# Pr is the % probability of occurrence of event at epoch\n# Sr is the source of forecast (daily Probability (GP or SP), Solar Event (SO), or None (NN))\n# Vel is the velocity of the ejecta leaving the solar surface in km/sec\n# Status of the combined predicted Dst events relative to NOAA G-scale\n# AC = all clear (>-10 nT) (G0 monitoring)\n# UN = unsettled (-33 to -10 nT) (G1 alert)\n# SE = small event predicted (-33 to -48 nT) (G2 watch)\n# ME = medium event predicted (-48 to -198 nT) (G3 advisory)\n# LE = large event predicted (-198 to -350 nT) (G4 warning)\n# LX = very large event predicted (-350 to -400 nT) (G5 warning)\n# CID is the Class ID for the event composed of a letter flare class and Xhf magnitude\n# C = small flare class\n# M = medium flare class\n# X = large flare class\n# 0-300 = Xhf magnitude of event\n# Bz is the estimated dominant Bz direction at Earth (N = northward, S = southward)\n#\n# AlertIssued PredictStart PredictPeak EL GX DST Pr Sr Vel Status CID Bz\n 202205042200 202205061600 202205071200 60 G3 -135 03 NN 760 ME C108 S" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-05-05T17:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-07T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.73", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-05-04T05:52Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 407\nLongitude (deg): 009E\nLatitude (deg): 05N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 29\n\nNotes: Re-analysis of missed event - messy partial halo visible on St A COR2 and Lasco, probably related to dimming visible on e.g. AIA171 near centre-disc and AR3004 03/1700Z. Fitted to two main lobes as a broad cone heading slightly N and E of sun-Earth line.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence, Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-05-05T20:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-08T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.40", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nNo Kp listed in simulation." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2022-05-06T03:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-07T16:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.33", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 407 km/s\nSolar wind speed: 390 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2022-05-06T03:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-06T10:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-43.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.30", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 407 km/s\nSource location: N05E09\nSolar wind speed: 390 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-07T13:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-23414.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-05-07T17:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-23414.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-04-27T14:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-04-27T14:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-04-29T23:27Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "An eruption from the vicinity of AR2996 was observed using Stereo-A EUVI imagery around 2022-04-27T14:00Z, since a maneuver/calibration at SDO was occurring at the time of the eruption.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-27T19:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-30T08:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.18", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-04-27T19:16:21Z\n## Message ID: 20220427-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-04-27T08:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~709 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 25/46 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-04-27T08:48:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-04-27T14:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~970 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 28/29 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-04-27T14:53:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO B. The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO B at 2022-04-30T09:09Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-04-30T08:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-04-27T08:48:00-CME-001, 2022-04-27T14:53:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe CME event with ID 2022-04-27T08:48:00-CME-001 is associated with the C3.3 flare from Active Region 12966 (N29W13) with ID 2022-04-27T08:17:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-04-27T08:40Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-27T20:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-30T08:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 1.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 1.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.10", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2022-04-27T08:48:00-CME-001 and 2022-04-27T14:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220427-AL-003).Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO B. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2022-04-30T07:51Z and 2022-04-30T22:41Z (average arrival 2022-04-30T18:17Z) for 62% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-04-30T08:08Z and 2022-04-30T09:18Z (average arrival 2022-04-30T08:43Z) for 6% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-27_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128/20220427_145300_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-27_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128/20220427_145300_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-27_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128/20220427_145300_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-27_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128/20220427_145300_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-27_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128/20220427_145300_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-27_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128/20220427_145300_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-27_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128/Detailed_results_20220427_145300_ncmes2_sims32_HILOX128.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-27T21:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-29T22:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.45", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-04-27 18:19\n - Time at C2: 2022-04-27 14:53\n - Radial speed: 970.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 36 deg\n - Eruption location: N29W28\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 697.00 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-04-29 22:39 (i.e. predicted transit time: 55.78 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-27T21:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-29T18:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.45", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 970.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1037.71\nAcceleration: -2.55056\nDuration in seconds: 186161.12\nDuration in days: 2.1546426\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.55 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 562.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 29/04/2022 Time: 18:35 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-27T21:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-30T07:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.45", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 970.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 572.310\nAcceleration: 0.623012\nDuration in seconds: 231221.46\nDuration in days: 2.6761743\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.62 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 716.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 30/04/2022 Time: 07:06 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-28T00:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-30T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.58", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 27/04/2022 21:38\nRadial velocity (km/s): 830\nLongitude (deg): 39W\nLatitude (deg): 34N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 44 \n\nNotes: Fast CME with likely arrival/glancing blow on 30th seems to catch up and overtake the previous CME. \nSpace weather advisor: Lawrence Howard" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-28T02:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-29T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.80", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-28T10:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-30T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.18", "predictionNote" : "predicted CME shock arrival time: 2022-04-30T04:00Z\nConfidence that the CME will arrive (percentage): 70%\nKp Range Lower Limit: 4\nKp Range Upper Limit: 6" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-30T02:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 48.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-23613.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-30T02:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-23613.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-04-11T06:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-04-11T06:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-04-14T03:37Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. The source is a C1.6 flare and eruption from an unnumbered region around S15E05. The eruption starts around 2022-04-11T05:00Z and is characterized by an EUV wave and dimming that is best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption can also be seen in SDO AIA 304. The eruption is visible in the SW quadrant of STEREO A EUVI imagery. As for the arrival, solar wind speed increased from ~400 km/s at 2022-04-14T03:00Z to 480 km/s at 09:20Z. Magnetic field components increase around 03:30Z with Btotal exceeding 10nT at 08:43Z, likely from the flux rope arrival. Density shows a gradual increase beginning at 03:30Z as well.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-11T10:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-14T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.62", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\nG2 Watch (upper limit Kp = 6) issued for 2022-04-14:\nhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g2-watch-issued-14-apr-2022\nNo minimum Kp listed in simulation or watch notification." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-11T12:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-14T09:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.75", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-04-11T12:52:37Z\n## Message ID: 20220411-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-04-11T06:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~553 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 2/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-04-11T06:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2022-04-14T07:52Z and STEREO B at 2022-04-14T11:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-04-14T09:56Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-04-11T06:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220411_114500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220411_114500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220411_114500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220411_114500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220411_114500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220411_114500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220411_114500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2022-04-11T06:00:00-CME-001) is associated with the C1.6 flare with ID 2022-04-11T05:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-04-11T05:21Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-11T14:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-14T04:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.12", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-04-11 11:45\n - Time at C2: 2022-04-11 06:00\n - Radial speed: 553.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 46 deg\n - Eruption location: S06W02\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: C1.6 (S18E11). Peak at 2022-04-11 04:59\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 560.88 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-04-14 04:31 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.53 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-11T17:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-14T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.58", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-04-11T12:50Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 500\nLongitude (deg): E05\nLatitude (deg): S05\nHalf-angular width (deg): 54\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-11T21:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-14T09:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.2, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.2, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.02", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-04-12T12:18:31Z ## Message ID: 20220412-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-04-11T06:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220411-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-04-13T22:39Z and 2022-04-14T17:30Z (average arrival 2022-04-14T07:23Z) for 95% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-04-14T02:46Z and 2022-04-14T18:11Z (average arrival 2022-04-14T10:27Z) for 89% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-04-13T23:22Z and 2022-04-14T21:43Z (average arrival 2022-04-14T09:34Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 54% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-11_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126/20220411_060000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-11_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126/20220411_060000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-11_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126/20220411_060000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-11_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126/20220411_060000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-11_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126/20220411_060000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-11_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126/20220411_060000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-11_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126/20220411_060000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-11_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126/20220411_060000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2022-04-11T06:00:00-CME-001) is associated with the C1.6 flare with ID 2022-04-11T05:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-04-11T05:21Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-11_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126/Detailed_results_20220411_060000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX126.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-12T00:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-13T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.93", "predictionNote" : "Halo CME as a result of filament eruption, near AR2987." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-12T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-14T12:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.62", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 553.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 609.447\nAcceleration: -0.615014\nDuration in seconds: 284055.38\nDuration in days: 3.2876780\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.62 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 434.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 14/04/2022 Time: 12:54 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-12T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-14T06:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.62", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 553.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 345.879\nAcceleration: 1.71076\nDuration in seconds: 260698.48\nDuration in days: 3.0173435\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.71 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 791.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 14/04/2022 Time: 06:24 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-12T08:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-14T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.27", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-14T08:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.14286, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-23993.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-14T09:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-23993.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-04-09T09:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-04-09T09:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-04-12T10:33Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Visible in the southwest of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen slowly lifting off in the southwest of SDO AIA 304 starting around 2022-04-09T05:15Z. It is also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 171 and in the southwest of STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME sheath/shock arrived at 2022-04-12T10:33Z and the flux rope arrived at 2022-04-13T01:54Z. The flux rope arrival was used as the IPS entry arrival time in DONKI as the flux rope arrival was responsible for a 10nT threshold crossing in Btotal. Btotal had only reached a maximum Btotal of ~8nT for the shock arrival.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-09T18:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-12T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.72", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/19716/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-04-09T09:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-32.0, Speed=422.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2022-04-09T20:27Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-04-12T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-04-13T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220409_202700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-10T07:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-13T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.30", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 09/2010\nRadial velocity (km/s): 500\nLongitude (deg): 17W\nLatitude (deg): 34S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 32\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Lawrence Howard" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-10T21:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-13T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "35.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.63", "predictionNote" : "See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:\n:Issued: 2022 Apr 10 1237 UTC\n:Product: documentation at https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sidc.be%2Fproducts%2Fmeu&data=04%7C01%7Cmary.aronne%40nasa.gov%7C9ba7ca3d56644722a53208da1aef064a%7C7005d45845be48ae8140d43da96dd17b%7C0%7C0%7C637851911155712227%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=%2BqXXzMPWV2caBbSD6XsOcSn1VnrZfBjHHODS8sRH5kw%3D&reserved=0\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 20410\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 Apr 2022, 1235UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 10 Apr 2022 until 12 Apr 2022) \nSOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 10 Apr 2022 10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 026 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 11 Apr 2022 10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 018 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 12 Apr 2022 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 005\nCOMMENT: \nA coronal mass ejection (CME) was first detected in the LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery around 09:24 UT on April 9th. The CME resulted from a large filament eruption in the southwest quadrant. The bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, but a minor glancing blow could reach Earth early on April 14th." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-11T13:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-12T15:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 37.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.55", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-04-13T02:16Z and 2022-04-13T02:22Z (average arrival 2022-04-13T02:19Z) for 4% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-04-13T02:28Z and 2022-04-13T12:52Z (average arrival 2022-04-13T08:09Z) for 41% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-04-12T09:08Z and 2022-04-12T19:07Z (average arrival 2022-04-12T15:13Z) for 37% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 82% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/Detailed_results_20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125.txt\n###" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-13T03:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24034.38", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-13T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 37.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24034.38", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-04-04T11:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-04-04T11:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-04-08T03:39Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo CME mostly NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and NE in COR2A. Its source is a filament eruption and opening field lines from the vicinity of AR 12983 (approximately N23E19). The arrival of this CME is marked by a weak shock with the magnetic field increasing to just above 10nT, and a jump in solar wind speed from ~365 km/s to 385 km/s and an increase in density to 15 particles/cc.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-05T15:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-08T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.37", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-04-05T15:17:55Z\n## Message ID: 20220405-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-04-04T11:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~526 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -44/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-04-04T11:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2022-04-07T21:17Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-04-08T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-04-04T11:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220404_185300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220404_185300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220404_185300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220404_185300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220404_185300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220404_185300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-06T04:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-08T00:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : 12.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.38", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-04-06T11:00:19Z\n## Message ID: 20220406-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-04-04T11:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220405-AL-001).\n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-04-07T13:32Z and 2022-04-08T12:09Z (average arrival 2022-04-08T02:07Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-04-07T18:14Z and 2022-04-08T09:15Z (average arrival 2022-04-08T00:23Z) for 12% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 88% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124/20220404_113600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124/20220404_113600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124/20220404_113600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124/20220404_113600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124/20220404_113600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124/20220404_113600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124/Detailed_results_20220404_113600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX124.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-08T03:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 12.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24137.28", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-08T03:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 12.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24137.28", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-04-03T16:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-04-03T16:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-04-06T22:45Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source of this CME is a large filament eruption best seen in the SW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk in SDO/AIA 304 and along the western limb in a few frames of STEREO A EUVI 304. The CME is first visible to the SW in STEREO A COR2 followed by SOHO LASCO C2 and C3.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-04T05:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-06T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.02", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-04-03T22:40Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 595\nLongitude (deg): 7S\nLatitude (deg): 8W\nHalf-angular width (deg): 38\n\nNotes: Filament eruption from centre-SW disc, visible on Lasco and STEREO A COR2 as well as various H-alpha imagery, e.g. Cerro Tololo. Halo visible in Lasco, fit mainly between C2 and COR2 as too faint on C3. Reasonable confidence of arrival within UTC day of 06 April.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-04T11:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-05T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.62", "predictionNote" : "See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:\n:Issued: 2022 Apr 04 1035 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA faint halo CME was detected by LASCO C2 coronagraph data around 16:30 UT on April\n3rd. The CME is associated with a large filament eruption lifting off of the solar\ndisc from the south-eastern quadrant and has a projected speed as seen by STEREO COR2\nof about 670km/s. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth by Wednesday, April 6th.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-04T21:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-06T09:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.12", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-04-04T21:38:22Z\n## Message ID: 20220404-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-04-03T17:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~767 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 58/31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-04-03T17:00:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-04-03T16:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~702 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-04-03T16:38:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO B. The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO B at 2022-04-06T07:39Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-04-06T09:44Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-04-03T17:00:00-CME-001, 2022-04-03T16:38:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220403_205900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220403_205900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220403_205900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220403_205900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-05T06:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-06T08:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.50", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-04-03 21:19\n - Time at C2: 2022-04-03 16:38\n - Radial speed: 702.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 35 deg\n - Eruption location: S04W22\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 616.60 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-04-06 08:15 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.62 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-05T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-06T12:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.75", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 702.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 762.470\nAcceleration: -1.25830\nDuration in seconds: 242679.74\nDuration in days: 2.8087933\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.26 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 457.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 06/04/2022 Time: 12:02 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-05T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-06T13:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.75", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 702.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 426.786\nAcceleration: 1.35330\nDuration in seconds: 248686.60\nDuration in days: 2.8783171\n% Compiled module: CALDAT.\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.35 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 763.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 06/04/2022 Time: 13:42 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-04-05T21:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-06T07:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.32", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-04-06T10:47:31Z\n## Message ID: 20220406-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with IDs 2022-04-03T16:38:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220404-AL-003).\n\n### Notification information (STEREO B, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2022-04-05T23:46Z and 2022-04-06T14:33Z (average arrival 2022-04-06T07:36Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-04-05T23:52Z and 2022-04-06T16:28Z (average arrival 2022-04-06T07:17Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 75% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123/20220403_163800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123/20220403_163800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123/20220403_163800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123/20220403_163800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123/20220403_163800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123/20220403_163800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-05_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123/Detailed_results_20220403_163800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX123.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-06T08:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 83.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.4, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.2, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24166.18", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-04-06T09:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24166.18", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-03-28T20:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T01:41Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is observed as a halo structure in both SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 white light coronagraph imagery. It is associated with an M1.0 flare from Active Region 12975 (N12W06) and eruption signature visible in SDO AIA 171/193 exhibiting a notable brightening/field line movement starting around 2022-03-28T19:03Z. The shock from the combined front of this CME and preceding 2022-03-28T12:09Z CME is observed around 2022-03-31T01:41Z, followed by the the first flux rope (possibly the flux rope for2022-03-28T12:09Z CME) starting around 2022-03-31T012:00Z. We are likely seeing the start of another flux rope (possibly for 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME) slightly after 2022-04-01T12:00Z when there is a sudden increase in the magnetic field and a drop in density.\nThe end of this second ICME seems to happen on the morning of 2022-04-02 when the field becomes more turbulent, and density increases (analysis by Tarik Salman, LASSOS).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T11:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.68", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 760.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 822.036\nAcceleration: -1.52323\nDuration in seconds: 227797.72\nDuration in days: 2.6365477\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.52 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 475.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/03/2022 Time: 11:39 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T16:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.68", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 760.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 458.280\nAcceleration: 1.20477\nDuration in seconds: 244069.77\nDuration in days: 2.8248817\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.20 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 752.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/03/2022 Time: 16:10 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T07:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.17", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T13:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T23:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.67", "predictionNote" : "See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:\nIssued: 2022 Mar 29 1301 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 20329\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Mar 2022, 1259UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Mar 2022 until 31 Mar 2022)\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2022 10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 009\nPREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2022 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 053\nPREDICTIONS FOR 31 Mar 2022 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 028\nCOMMENT: \nThe possible Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday was detected by\nCACTus as a partial halo with start time March 28th 12:00UT. After analysis\nthe estimated speed was found to be around 735 km/s and estimated time of\narrival early March 31st. This CME is followed by a partial halo CME that\nhas been detected by CACTus with reported start time March 28th 20:24UT.\nAfter analysis the estimated speed was found to be around 784 km/s and\nestimated time of arrival late March 31st." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T15:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T04:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.93", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-03-29T15:45:16Z\n## Message ID: 20220329-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220329-AL-001), now simulated with CME with ID 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO A and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO A at 2022-03-31T07:24Z and STEREO B at 2022-03-31T01:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-03-31T04:12Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2022-03-28T12:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~662 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 12/7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2022-03-28T20:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~760 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 50 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 3/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001, 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe CME with ID 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001 is associated with M4.0 flare with ID 2022-03-28T10:58:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-03-28T11:29Z, SEP at STEREO A with ID 2022-03-28T12:25:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-001, 20220328-AL-002), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-03-28T12:45:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-003, 20220328-AL-004), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-03-28T13:25:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-005, 20220328-AL-006), and SEP at SOHO with ID 2022-03-28T13:44:00-SEP-001.\n\nThe CME with ID 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001 is associated with M1.0 flare with ID 2022-03-28T19:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-03-28T19:23Z.\n\nBoth CMEs and associated flares originated from Active Region 12975. \n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T17:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T10:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.07", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-03-29 00:58\n - Time at C2: 2022-03-28 20:23\n - Radial speed: 760.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 50 deg\n - Eruption location: N03W03\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 634.00 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-03-31 10:07 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.73 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T19:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.75", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-03-29T01:08Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 722\nLongitude (deg): W07\nLatitude (deg): N02\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Duty Forecaster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-30T00:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T06:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.7, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.42", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-03-30T11:26:28Z ## Message ID: 20220330-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001 and 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20220329-AL-002, 20220329-AL-001, 20220328-AL-007). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 36 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-03-31T01:38Z and 2022-03-31T11:47Z (average arrival 2022-03-31T06:54Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-03-30T21:56Z and 2022-03-31T08:45Z (average arrival 2022-03-31T03:09Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the combined leading edge of the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-03-30T23:29Z and 2022-03-31T12:03Z (average arrival 2022-03-31T06:10Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 87% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe CME with ID 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001 is associated with M4.0 flare with ID 2022-03-28T10:58:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-03-28T11:29Z, SEP at STEREO A with ID 2022-03-28T12:25:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-001, 20220328-AL-002), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-03-28T12:45:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-003, 20220328-AL-004), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-03-28T13:25:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-005, 20220328-AL-006), and SEP at SOHO with ID 2022-03-28T13:44:00-SEP-001.\n\nThe CME with ID 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001 is associated with M1.0 flare with ID 2022-03-28T19:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-03-28T19:23Z.\n\nBoth CMEs and associated flares originated from Active Region 12975.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/Detailed_results_20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-30T01:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.60", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-30T07:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T15:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.50", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 760 km/s\nSolar wind speed: 430 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr\n\nOutput: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-03-31 15:28:42" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-30T07:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.37", "predictionNote" : "Input:\nInitial shock speed: 760 km/s\nSource location: N12W06\nSolar wind speed: 430 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr\n\nOutput: \nThe shock will reach the Earth at 2022-03-31 07:00:23" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-31T15:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-13.40", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-03-30T23:15Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 700\nLongitude (deg): 40W\nLatitude (deg): 05N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: Majority of ejecta observed to west from available imagery with relatively low confidence for CME impact.\nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC advisor" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T10:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 67.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.28571, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.57143, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24331.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T10:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24331.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-03-28T12:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T01:41Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 white light imagery. It is associated with an M4.0 flare and eruption from AR 12975 (N12W01). The eruption is characterized by an EUV wave and dimming that is best seen in SDO AIA 193 around 2022-03-28T11:21Z. The eruption is also visible in the northwest quadrant from the viewpoint of STEREO A EUVI 195. The shock from what is probably the combined front of this CME and the 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME was observed around 2022-03-31T01:41Z, it was followed by the sheath and the CME flux rope starting around 2022-03-31T012:00Z (a more coherent magnetic field, rotations, and the sudden drop in proton density at the transition between the sheath to the CME flux rope). We might be seeing the second flux rope (possibly for 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME) slightly after 2022-04-01T12:00Z when there is a sudden increase in the magnetic field and a drop in density. (analysis by Tarik Salman, LASSOS)", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-28T16:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T08:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.35", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/19564/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=12.0, Lat.=7.0, Speed=662.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2022-03-28T17:19Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-03-31T08:49Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =20.8 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.6\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-03-31T11:49Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-03-31T02:50Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_171900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-28T18:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T05:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.68", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-03-28 17:19\n - Time at C2: 2022-03-28 12:09\n - Radial speed: 662.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N07W12\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 604.60 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-03-31 05:08 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.98 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T00:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T10:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.2, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.00", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-03-29T12:43:39Z\n## Message ID: 20220329-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220328-AL-007). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 36 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-03-31T06:13Z and 2022-03-31T20:59Z (average arrival 2022-03-31T13:08Z) for 91% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-03-31T00:37Z and 2022-03-31T11:24Z (average arrival 2022-03-31T05:23Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-03-31T04:47Z and 2022-03-31T17:01Z (average arrival 2022-03-31T10:51Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 72% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-28_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118/20220328_144200_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-28_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118/20220328_144200_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-28_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118/20220328_144200_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-28_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118/20220328_144200_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-28_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118/20220328_144200_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-28_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118/20220328_144200_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-28_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118/20220328_144200_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-28_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118/20220328_144200_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-28_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118/Detailed_results_20220328_144200_ncmes1_sims36_HILOX118.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\"." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T00:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.70", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T02:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.02", "predictionNote" : "CME 1 2022/03/28 12:09\npropagation direction : N07W20\nangular width : 98 degrees\nspeed: 610km/s\n\nCME 2 2022/03/28 20:24\npropagation direction : N27W07\nangular width : 122 degrees\nspeed : 650km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T03:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T07:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.67", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2022-03-28 12:09:00\nInitial Shock Speed: 662 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 430 km/s\nDuration Time: 1.0 hr\n\nOutput Results: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-03-31 07:23:48" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T03:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-30T22:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.62", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2022-03-28 12:09:00\nSource Longtitude: 0\nSource Latitude: 12\nInitial Shock Speed: 662 km/s \nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 430 km/s \nDuration Time: 1 hr\n\nOutput results: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-03-30 22:44:11" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T07:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.17", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T10:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.68", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 662.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 721.390\nAcceleration: -1.08033\nDuration in seconds: 252522.01\nDuration in days: 2.9227085\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.08 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 448.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/03/2022 Time: 10:17 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T09:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.68", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 662.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 405.066\nAcceleration: 1.45267\nDuration in seconds: 251377.58\nDuration in days: 2.9094627\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.45 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 770.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/03/2022 Time: 09:58 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T13:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T06:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.67", "predictionNote" : "See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:\nIssued: 2022 Mar 29 1301 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 20329\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Mar 2022, 1259UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Mar 2022 until 31 Mar 2022)\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2022 10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 009\nPREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2022 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 053\nPREDICTIONS FOR 31 Mar 2022 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 028\nCOMMENT: \nThe possible Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday was detected by\nCACTus as a partial halo with start time March 28th 12:00UT. After analysis\nthe estimated speed was found to be around 735 km/s and estimated time of\narrival early March 31st. This CME is followed by a partial halo CME that\nhas been detected by CACTus with reported start time March 28th 20:24UT.\nAfter analysis the estimated speed was found to be around 784 km/s and\nestimated time of arrival late March 31st." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T15:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T04:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.93", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-03-29T15:45:16Z\n## Message ID: 20220329-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220329-AL-001), now simulated with CME with ID 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO A and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO A at 2022-03-31T07:24Z and STEREO B at 2022-03-31T01:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-03-31T04:12Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2022-03-28T12:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~662 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 12/7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2022-03-28T20:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~760 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 50 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 3/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001, 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe CME with ID 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001 is associated with M4.0 flare with ID 2022-03-28T10:58:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-03-28T11:29Z, SEP at STEREO A with ID 2022-03-28T12:25:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-001, 20220328-AL-002), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-03-28T12:45:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-003, 20220328-AL-004), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-03-28T13:25:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-005, 20220328-AL-006), and SEP at SOHO with ID 2022-03-28T13:44:00-SEP-001.\n\nThe CME with ID 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001 is associated with M1.0 flare with ID 2022-03-28T19:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-03-28T19:23Z.\n\nBoth CMEs and associated flares originated from Active Region 12975. \n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-29T19:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.85", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-03-28T16:24Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 550\nLongitude (deg): N01\nLatitude (deg): E02\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Duty Forecaster" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-30T00:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T06:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.7, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.42", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-03-30T11:26:28Z ## Message ID: 20220330-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001 and 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20220329-AL-002, 20220329-AL-001, 20220328-AL-007). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 36 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-03-31T01:38Z and 2022-03-31T11:47Z (average arrival 2022-03-31T06:54Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-03-30T21:56Z and 2022-03-31T08:45Z (average arrival 2022-03-31T03:09Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the combined leading edge of the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-03-30T23:29Z and 2022-03-31T12:03Z (average arrival 2022-03-31T06:10Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 87% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe CME with ID 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001 is associated with M4.0 flare with ID 2022-03-28T10:58:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-03-28T11:29Z, SEP at STEREO A with ID 2022-03-28T12:25:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-001, 20220328-AL-002), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-03-28T12:45:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-003, 20220328-AL-004), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-03-28T13:25:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-005, 20220328-AL-006), and SEP at SOHO with ID 2022-03-28T13:44:00-SEP-001.\n\nThe CME with ID 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001 is associated with M1.0 flare with ID 2022-03-28T19:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-03-28T19:23Z.\n\nBoth CMEs and associated flares originated from Active Region 12975.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-29_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119/Detailed_results_20220328_202300_ncmes2_sims36_HILOX119.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T06:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24331.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-31T06:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24331.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-03-16T13:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-03-16T13:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-03-19T20:57Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Filament eruption begins around 2022-03-16T12:35Z and is seen well in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 in the NE quadrant. Following this, brightening and an associated EUV wave is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 193. Post eruptive arcades are then visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 at 13:24Z. Arrival Note: Gradual field amplification accompanied by flux rope and pileup. Field amplitude only exceeds 10 nT for one data point at 2022-03-20T07:00Z, and there is no clear sudden shock. Associated with Kp reaching 3 during synoptic periods 2022-03-20T00:00Z-06:00Z and slight magnetospheric compression to about 8.5 Re at 2022-03-20T03:38Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-16T20:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-20T00:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.37", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/19467/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-03-16T13:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-25.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=511.0, HalfAngle=50.0, Time21.5=2022-03-16T20:38Z\n2022-03-16T15:16:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-78.0, Lat.=19.0, Speed=320.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2022-03-17T02:23Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-03-20T00:14Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =16.6 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-03-17T19:53Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-03-19T12:14Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-16T21:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-19T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.50", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg): 27\nLatitude (deg): 26\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes: \n\nSee prediction details from NOAA SWPC Forecast Discussion excerpts below:\n\n###\nProduct: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2022 Mar 17 0030 UTC\n...\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\n...\nA 10 deg long filament, centered at approximately N26E27, disappeared -\nbeginning at about 16/1230 UTC. This eruptive DSF was observed in\nGOES/SUVI imagery and was associated with a CME first clearly noted in\nSOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 16/1336 UTC. Initial analysis of all current\navailable imagery indicated a CME most likely directed towards the\nSTEREO-A spacecraft (a little over 2 1/2 days behind Earth's orbital\nlocation), however, the breadth of the CME suggests an Earth-directed\ncomponent may be possible as early as late 19 Mar\n\n\n\n###\nProduct: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2022 Mar 17 1230 UTC\n...\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\n...\nThe filament eruption centered near N26E27 at approximately 16/1230 UTC from the previous\ndiscussion was modeled and determined to be a likely glancing blow to\nthe east with a bulk of the material heading for STEREO-A." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-17T04:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-19T12:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.95", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-03-16 20:38\n - Time at C2: 2022-03-16 13:36\n - Radial speed: 511.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 50 deg\n - Eruption location: N01E25\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 559.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-03-19 12:21 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.75 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-17T09:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-20T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.32", "predictionNote" : "See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:\nIssued: 2022 Mar 17 1232 UTC\n...\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 20317\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Mar 2022, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Mar 2022 until 19 Mar 2022)\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 17 Mar 2022 10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 18 Mar 2022 10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Mar 2022 10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 007\nCOMMENT: There are two active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR\n2965 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration) has decreased in size and\nproduced only one C-class flare (C1.2 with peak at 01:54 UT). The other\nactive region visible, NOAA AR 2967, is small and has a simple alpha\nmagnetic field configuration. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be\nexpected (M-class flares remain possible, but less likely).\n\nA filament erupted from NOAA AR 2967, creating a CME first seen by\nSOHO/LASCO-C2 at 13:25 UT on March 16, with an angular width of about 100\ndegrees and projected speed of 360 km/s (the CME is too faint on\nSTEREO/COR2 beacon images in order to allow a 3D reconstruction). The bulk\nof the CME is traveling to the east, but given the proximity of the source\nto the central meridian, an arrival to the Earth is possible on 20 March." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-17T18:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-19T22:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 20.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.98", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-03-18T12:36:17Z\n## Message ID: 20220318-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-03-16T13:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220317-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-03-19T03:04Z and 2022-03-20T02:43Z (average arrival 2022-03-19T12:40Z) for 97% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-03-20T03:13Z and 2022-03-20T10:10Z (average arrival 2022-03-20T06:41Z) for 4% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally, the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-03-19T09:28Z and 2022-03-20T18:25Z (average arrival 2022-03-19T22:20Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 66% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-17_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115/20220316_133600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-17_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115/20220316_133600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-17_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115/20220316_133600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-17_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115/20220316_133600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-17_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115/20220316_133600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-17_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115/20220316_133600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-17_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115/20220316_133600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-17_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115/20220316_133600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\n\nThe initial non-ensemble simulation also included an arrival at Solar Orbiter (see notification 20220317-AL-002). \n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-17_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115/Detailed_results_20220316_133600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX115.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-17T19:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-20T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.82", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-03-16T20:20Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 400\nLongitude (deg): E031\nLatitude (deg): S03\nHalf-angular width (deg): 30\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Tony Gillard" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-18T02:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-20T07:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.12", "predictionNote" : "Input:\nInitial shock speed: 511 km/s\nSource location: N01E25\nSolar wind speed: 350 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr\n\nOutput:\nThe shock will reach the Earth at 2022-03-20 07:12:36" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-18T02:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-19T11:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.05", "predictionNote" : "Input:\nInitial shock speed: 511 km/s\nSource location: N01E25\nSolar wind speed: 350 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr\n\nOutput: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-03-19 11:58:37" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-19T23:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24599.98", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-19T23:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24599.98", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-03-10T19:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-03-10T19:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T10:11Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2 and as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Associated with an eruption, dimming, and EUV wave SE of AR2962 (N12W12), best seen in SDO AIA 171/193 starting around 2022-03-10T18:42Z. Associated with below-threshold increase in greater than 10 MeV proton flux at GOES-P beginning 2022-03-10T23:15Z and below-threshold increase in 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO A IMPACT beginning 2022-03-11T01:00Z. | ARRIVAL NOTE UPDATE - from DONKI IPS entry (2022-03-13T06:35:00-IPS-001): Sudden jump in magnetic field amplitude reaching 20 nT as well as a jump in speed, density, and temperature. A subsequent rotation can be seen in the B-field components with a decrease in temperature indicating a flux rope passage. Bz mostly north during the flux rope passage starting around 2022-03-13T22:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-11T04:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.18", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-11T06:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-14T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.18", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-11T06:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.68", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-03-11T04:06Z \nRadial velocity (km/s): 577\nLongitude (deg): W011\nLatitude (deg): N23\nHalf-angular width (deg): 54\n\nNotes: Originally entered under wrong CME. Re-entered here (with parameters now included).\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-11T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T15:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.18", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 677.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 736.795\nAcceleration: -1.14661\nDuration in seconds: 246997.67\nDuration in days: 2.8587693\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.15 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 453.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/03/2022 Time: 15:59 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-11T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T16:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.18", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 677.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 413.211\nAcceleration: 1.41570\nDuration in seconds: 249305.05\nDuration in days: 2.8854751\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.42 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 766.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/03/2022 Time: 16:38 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-11T13:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T11:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.38", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-03-11T13:48:58Z\n## Message ID: 20220311-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-03-10T19:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~677 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 61 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-03-10T19:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2022-03-11T21:33Z, STEREO A at 2022-03-13T13:44Z, and STEREO B at 2022-03-13T21:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-03-13T11:35Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-8 (minor to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-03-10T19:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220311_010600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220311_010600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220311_010600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220311_010600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220311_010600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220311_010600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220311_010600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220311_010600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nThis CME is also associated with a below-threshold increase in greater than 10 MeV proton flux at GOES-P beginning 2022-03-10T23:15Z and below-threshold increase in 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO A IMPACT beginning 2022-03-11T01:00Z.\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-11T14:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-14T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.85", "predictionNote" : "predicted shock arrival time : 2022-03-14T01:00Z\n\nParameters (Cone-model):\nV = 670~750 km/s\nhalf angular width = 76~87 degrees\npropagation direction = N10W04 ~ N16W27" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-11T14:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T11:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.68", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-03-11 01:06\n - Time at C2: 2022-03-10 19:23\n - Radial speed: 677.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 61 deg\n - Eruption location: N16W10\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 609.10 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-03-13 11:51 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.47 hours)\n\nKp: [4.0 - 5.0]" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-11T15:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.70", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-11T18:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T09:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.2, "confidenceInPercentage" : 97.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.80", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-03-11T18:56:03Z\n## Message ID: 20220311-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-03-10T19:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220311-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-03-12T22:18Z and 2022-03-13T16:21Z (average arrival 2022-03-13T06:48Z) for 97% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-03-13T09:08Z and 2022-03-14T05:14Z (average arrival 2022-03-13T17:51Z) for 97% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-03-13T01:38Z and 2022-03-13T18:24Z (average arrival 2022-03-13T09:11Z) for 97% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 73% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-11_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013/20220310_192300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-11_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013/20220310_192300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-11_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013/20220310_192300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-11_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013/20220310_192300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-11_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013/20220310_192300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-11_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013/20220310_192300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-11_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013/20220310_192300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe initial non-ensemble simulation also included an arrival at Solar Orbiter (see notification 20220311-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-11_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013/Detailed_results_20220310_192300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA013.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-13T01:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T12:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "8.27", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2022-03-10 19:23:00\nInitial Shock Speed: 677 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 400 km/s\nDuration Time: 5 hrs\n\nOutput Results: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-03-13 12:35:30" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-13T01:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T08:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "8.25", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2022-03-10 19:23:00\nSource Longtitude: 12\nSource Latitude: 12\nInitial Shock Speed: 67 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 400 km/s\nDuration Time: 5 hrs\n\nOutput results: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-03-13 08:00:38" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T16:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 81.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.42857, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.57143, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24754.75", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-13T16:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24754.75", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-03-07T00:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-03-07T00:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-03-10T18:37Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is first seen as a faint partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 (later in C3) and followed by a more bright and slightly more narrow shape to the W/NW in STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is an eruption to the E/SE of AR12958 (N17W28) stretching across multiple longitudes from ~W20 to ~W45 based off of the dimming signature seen in SDO/AIA 193. The eruption is best seen in the SDO/AIA 193, 211, 94, 335, and STEREO A EUVI 195 wavelengths. From STEREO A's point of view, the eruption appears as opening field lines along the Eastern limb, while in SDO/AIA's point of view, the eruption is more clear with dimming, a post-eruptive arcade, and a brief EUV wave (seen best in SDO/AIA 211). UPDATE (2022-03-11T14:50Z): Arrival Field indicated by enhancement exceeding 10 nT, accompanied by field component rotation. Preceded by pileup, followed by slight speed increase. Temperature data inconclusive.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-07T20:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-10T13:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.20", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-03-07T20:25:29Z\n## Message ID: 20220307-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nS-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-03-07T00:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~479 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 21/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-03-07T00:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2022-03-08T14:24Z and STEREO B at 2022-03-10T05:58Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-03-10T13:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-03-07T00:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220307_080500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220307_080500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220307_080500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220307_080500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220307_080500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-08T00:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-10T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : -30, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.18", "predictionNote" : "A slow coronal mass ejection associated with a filament eruption NW solar quadrant. Enlil model run indicates CME speed is just above background wind speed and a possible glancing blow, uncertain of degree of geoeffectiveness, solar longitude location is quite good, perhaps a bit high in latitude, but the slow speed of the CME and limited visibility in C3 difference images using CAT somewhat reduces confidence, along with a north-east direction evident in C2 imagery. The CME was quite visible in STEREO A difference imagery though perhaps expansion appeared to be only moderate." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-08T01:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-10T00:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.62", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-03-07 08:05\n - Time at C2: 2022-03-07 00:12\n - Radial speed: 479.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 31 deg\n - Eruption location: N06W21\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 549.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2022-03-10 00:17 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.10 hours)\n\nKp=[3.0 - 4-0]" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-08T02:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-10T11:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.8, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 2.317, "confidenceInPercentage" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.25", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-03-08T14:00:06Z\n## Message ID: 20220308-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-03-07T00:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220307-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2022-03-10T01:39Z and 2022-03-10T11:40Z (average arrival 2022-03-10T07:29Z) for 95% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-03-10T08:38Z and 2022-03-10T13:45Z (average arrival 2022-03-10T11:26Z) for 6% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 99% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112/20220307_001200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112/20220307_001200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112/20220307_001200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112/20220307_001200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112/20220307_001200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112/20220307_001200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2022-03-07T00:12:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Solar Orbiter at 2022-03-08T14:24Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20220307-AL-001).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-03-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112/Detailed_results_20220307_001200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX112.txt\n###\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-08T02:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-10T10:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.63", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 479 km/s\nSolar wind speed: 450 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hrs (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-08T03:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-09T11:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-30.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.60", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 479 km/s\nSource location: N17W28\nSolar wind speed: 450 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hrs (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-08T06:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-10T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.95", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-03-07T09:20\nRadial velocity (km/s): 417\nLongitude (deg): W24\nLatitude (deg): N10\nHalf-angular width (deg): 27\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-08T13:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-11T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.55", "predictionNote" : "See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:\n\n:Issued: 2022 Mar 08 1300 UTC\n...\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 20308\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Mar 2022, 1258UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 Mar 2022 until 10 Mar 2022) \nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 08 Mar 2022 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 005 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 09 Mar 2022 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 005 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 10 Mar 2022 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 004\nCOMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels with two C-class flares over the past 24 hours. There are seven numbered active regions on the visible disc (5 active regions numbered by NOAA and Catania sunspot groups 52 and 53). The largest and most complex active region on disc, NOAA 2960, has increased its number of trailing spots and is now classified as beta-gamma. Despite its complexity, this region has remained stable and inactive. NOAA 2957 has lost some of its trailing spots and remained inactive beta. NOAA 2961 (previously alpha) has increased its magnetic complexity (now classifies as beta) and has produced a C1.1-class flare with peak time 15:04 UT on March 7th. Catania sunspot group 50 has remained stable and is now numbered as NOAA 2963 (beta). A C1.8-class flare (peak time 20:42 UT on March 7th) was produced from behind the north-east limb. The X-ray flare activity is expected to be at low levels for the next 24 hours with 60% chance for C-class flaring.\n\nA filament eruption occurred around 23 UT on March 6th in the north-west solar quadrant near plage region NOAA 2958. The eruption produced a very slow partial halo CME with a primary component directed to the north-west. A glancing blow from this CME can be expected to reach Earth early on March 11th." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-09T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-10T12:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.62", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 479.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 533.449\nAcceleration: -0.315498\nDuration in seconds: 302353.46\nDuration in days: 3.4994613\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.32 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 438.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/03/2022 Time: 12:11 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-03-09T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-10T01:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.62", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 479.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 305.697\nAcceleration: 1.87539\nDuration in seconds: 265012.30\nDuration in days: 3.0672720\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.88 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 802.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/03/2022 Time: 01:48 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-10T10:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 42.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.8, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.4, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24818.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-03-10T11:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-24818.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-02-06T14:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-02-06T14:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-02-09T20:09Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This is a partial halo CME as seen in the west of STEREO A COR2 and is seen in the far south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The source is an eruption beginning around 2022-02-06T12:04Z near AR 12939 characterized by a filament eruption best seen seen in SDO AIA 304, dimming and an EUV wave in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines in SDO AIA 171. The L1 shock arrival of the combined front of this CME and 2022-02-06T15:38 CME is around 2022-02-09T20:09Z and the flux rope part possibly starts around mid-day on 2022-02-10.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-02-06T19:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-09T22:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.98", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/19100/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-02-06T14:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-18.0, Speed=555.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2022-02-06T19:52Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-02-09T22:30Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =20.2 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-02-08T23:39Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-02-09T09:58Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-02-09T19:21Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-02-06T20:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-09T11:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.65", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-02-06 19:52\n - Time at C2: 2022-02-06 14:09\n - Radial speed: 555.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 40 deg\n - Eruption location: S18E05\n Inferences:\n - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n  - In-situ shock speed: 572.50 km/s\n - Shock arrival time: 2022-02-09 11:07 (i.e. predicted transit time: 68.97 hours)\nKP: [3.0 - 5.0]" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-02-06T22:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-09T23:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.87", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Solar Orbiter, STEREO B, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-02-06T22:17:47Z\n## Message ID: 20220206-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2022-02-06T14:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220206-AL-002). It has now been simulated together with a CME with ID 2022-02-06T15:38:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2022-02-08T22:29Z and STEREO B at 2022-02-09T16:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nIn addition, the C-type CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 at 2022-02-06T15:38Z may give a minor impact to STEREO A at 2022-02-09T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-02-09T23:08Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2022-02-06T14:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~555 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -5/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-02-06T14:09:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2022-02-06T15:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~401 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -2/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-02-06T15:38:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-02-06T14:09:00-CME-001, 2022-02-06T15:38:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220206_195200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe CME event with ID 2022-02-06T14:09:00-CME-001 is associated with a C3.1 flare with ID 2022-02-06T11:45:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 12939 (S17W15) which peaked at 2022-02-06T13:41Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-02-06T23:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-09T14:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.97", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (STEREO B, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-02-07T14:03:28Z ## Message ID: 20220207-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2022-02-06T14:09:00-CME-001 and 2022-02-06T15:38:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220206-AL-003). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-02-09T02:40Z and 2022-02-09T12:24Z (average arrival 2022-02-09T07:57Z) for 64% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-02-09T09:03Z and 2022-02-09T21:28Z (average arrival 2022-02-09T15:42Z) for 95% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-02-09T07:04Z and 2022-02-09T21:11Z (average arrival 2022-02-09T14:09Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-02-06_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012/20220206_153800_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-02-06_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012/20220206_153800_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-02-06_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012/20220206_153800_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-02-06_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012/20220206_153800_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-02-06_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012/20220206_153800_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-02-06_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012/20220206_153800_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-02-06_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012/20220206_153800_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-02-06_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012/20220206_153800_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe CME events (2022-02-06T14:09:00-CME-001 and 2022-02-06T15:38:00-CME-001) are also predicted to impact Solar Orbiter at 2022-02-08T22:29Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20220206-AL-003).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-02-06_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012/Detailed_results_20220206_153800_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA012.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-02-07T01:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-09T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.90", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-02-07T00:03Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 408\nLongitude (deg): W000\nLatitude (deg): S03\nHalf-angular width (deg): 37\n\nNotes: At least partial halo from near-centre disc spiralling filament lift-off assw long-period C-class flare. Clear on C2 and St COR2, unusually clean fit. Part of at least three shock fronts visible, this is the main one, being angled on ecliptic to a degree. Likely hit and Likely G1.\n\nOther two parts of MOSWOC Enlil modelling going into estimate for this CME: Firstly S30E009 822km/s 25deg T21.5R 06/02/2022 19:29UTC - lowest confidence of three constituent parts, mainly directed below ecliptic. Secondly S22E003 631km/s 24deg T21.5R 06/02/2022 19:18UTC - foremost shock from CME.\n\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-02-07T04:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-10T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.15", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-02-07T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-09T19:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.15", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 555.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 611.501\nAcceleration: -0.623293\nDuration in seconds: 278235.73\nDuration in days: 3.2203210\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.62 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 438.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/02/2022 Time: 19:26 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-02-07T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-09T13:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.15", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 555.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 346.965\nAcceleration: 1.70619\nDuration in seconds: 257635.25\nDuration in days: 2.9818894\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.71 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 786.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/02/2022 Time: 13:42 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-02-07T10:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-09T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.67", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-02-08T02:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-09T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.23", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-09T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-25512.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-09T16:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-25512.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-01-29T23:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-01-29T23:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-02-01T21:37Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as a partial halo to the W in STEREO A COR2. Associated with an eruption from AR 12936 (N17E10), visible in SDO AIA 171/193 (eruption/EUV wave) and SDO AIA 304 (post-eruptive arcades) beginning 2022-01-29T21:57Z. Also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-01-29T22:05Z. Associated with elevated 0.035-0.065 MeV electron flux at STEREO A beginning 2022-01-30T00:15Z and elevated 2.2-12 MeV proton flux at STEREO A beginning 2022-01-30T00:59Z. 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO A remained at background level. UPDATE (2022-02-02T12:35Z): Arrival indicated by sudden jumps in density (exceeding 15 per cc), speed (exceeding 470 km/s), temperature, and field amplitude (exceeding 13 nT). This IPS arrival time is the arrival of the sheath, and the flux rope arrived around 2022-02-02T19:43Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-30T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-01T23:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.62", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 628.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 686.472\nAcceleration: -0.932098\nDuration in seconds: 257495.65\nDuration in days: 2.9802738\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.93 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 446.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/02/2022 Time: 23:07 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-30T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-01T21:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.62", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 628.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 386.604\nAcceleration: 1.53516\nDuration in seconds: 251604.06\nDuration in days: 2.9120840\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.54 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 772.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/02/2022 Time: 21:29 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-30T12:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-02T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.83", "predictionNote" : "sidctech@oma.be\n \n \n 2022-01-30T12:47:49\n \n \n 250\n \n 0\n \n CME_arrival\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2022-02-02T12:00:00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-30T13:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-01T19:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.78", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-01-30T13:50:54Z\n## Message ID: 20220130-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-01-29T23:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~628 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -9/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-01-29T23:36:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2022-02-01T11:35Z, STEREO A at 2022-02-01T18:24Z, and STEREO B at 2022-02-01T20:03Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-02-01T19:36Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-01-29T23:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220130_035600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220130_035600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220130_035600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220130_035600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220130_035600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220130_035600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220130_035600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220130_035600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2022-01-29T23:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.1 flare with ID 2022-01-29T22:45:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-01-29T23:32Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-30T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-01T17:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.62", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-01-30 03:56\n - Time at C2: 2022-01-29 23:36\n - Radial speed: 628.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N03E09\n Inferences:\n - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n - In-situ shock speed: 594.40 km/s\n - Shock arrival time: 2022-02-01 17:48 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.20 hours)\n\nKp:[3.0 - 4.0]" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-30T16:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-02T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.90", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-01-30T05:32Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 603\nLongitude (deg): E17\nLatitude (deg): N09\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Dean Hall" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-30T21:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-01T09:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.2, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 17.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.22", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-01-30T21:35:25Z ## Message ID: 20220130-AL-002 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-01-29T23:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220130-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-01-31T21:42Z and 2022-02-01T22:59Z (average arrival 2022-02-01T09:26Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2022-02-01T00:02Z and 2022-02-02T00:57Z (average arrival 2022-02-01T11:51Z) for 93% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-01-31T20:57Z and 2022-02-02T02:10Z (average arrival 2022-02-01T09:07Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 64% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111/20220129_233600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111/20220129_233600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111/20220129_233600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111/20220129_233600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111/20220129_233600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111/20220129_233600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111/20220129_233600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111/20220129_233600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe initial non-ensemble simulation also predicted an arrival at Solar Orbiter (see previous notification 20220130-AL-001).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111/Detailed_results_20220129_233600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX111.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-31T00:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-02T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.43", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-31T01:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.10", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-31T01:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-02T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.00", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-01T23:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.83333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-25703.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-02-01T23:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-25703.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-01-21T09:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-01-21T09:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-01-24T17:09Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is associated with a filament/prominence eruption visible toward the SE limb of the Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 193/304 near S20E60 (near AR 2934) starting around 2022-01-21T07:45Z. A corresponding dimming/ejection of material is visible to the SE in STEREO A EUVI 195 starting around the same time. The CME appears as a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. This is a possible combined arrival with the 2022-01-20T09:09Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-21T16:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-24T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.77", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-01-21T16:23:43Z\n## Message ID: 20220121-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-01-21T09:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~972 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -63/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-01-21T09:53:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may affect Solar Orbiter and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2022-01-23T15:01Z and STEREO A at 2022-01-23T14:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-01-24T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-01-20T22:12:00-CME-001, 2022-01-21T09:53:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_105000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_105000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_105000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_105000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_105000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_105000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_105000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis is a preliminary analysis and the event is still being analyzed as more imagery from SOHO LASCO C2/C3 becomes available. This C-type CME with Activity ID 2022-01-21T09:53:00-CME-001 was simulated with a narrow/faint S-type CME with Activity ID 2022-01-20T22:12:00-CME-001 which is not predicted to have any significant impacts.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-21T20:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-24T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.10", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-01-21T20:03:39Z\n## Message ID: 20220121-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2022-01-21T09:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220121-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2022-01-23T20:18Z and STEREO A at 2022-01-23T21:33Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-01-24T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\nStart time of the event: 2022-01-21T09:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~739 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 48 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -58/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-01-21T09:53:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-01-21T09:53:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_140400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_140400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_140400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_140400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_140400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_140400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220121_140400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-21T23:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-24T00:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 68.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.45", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-01-22T12:47:00Z ## Message ID: 20220122-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-01-21T09:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20220121-AL-001, 20220121-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2022-01-23T05:43Z and 2022-01-23T21:52Z (average arrival 2022-01-23T13:10Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-01-23T17:56Z and 2022-01-24T09:03Z (average arrival 2022-01-24T00:58Z) for 68% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 80% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010/20220121_095300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010/20220121_095300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010/20220121_095300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010/20220121_095300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010/20220121_095300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010/20220121_095300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe initial non-ensemble simulation also predicted an arrival of this CME at Solar Orbiter.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010/Detailed_results_20220121_095300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA010.txt\n\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-22T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-24T01:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.15", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 739.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 800.469\nAcceleration: -1.42636\nDuration in seconds: 228637.26\nDuration in days: 2.6462645\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.43 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 474.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/01/2022 Time: 01:23 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-22T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-24T05:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.15", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 739.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 446.877\nAcceleration: 1.25916\nDuration in seconds: 242958.08\nDuration in days: 2.8120148\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.26 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 752.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/01/2022 Time: 05:22 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-24T05:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 68.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-25899.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-24T05:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 68.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-25899.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-01-20T09:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-01-20T09:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-01-24T17:09Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source of this CME is a filament eruption visible in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2022-01-20T08:00Z followed by notable dimming best seen in SDO/AIA 193 and some rising loops after the filament erupts (visible in both SDO/AIA 193 and 171). The source location is just NW of AR 12933. This is a possible combined arrival with the 2022-01-21T09:53Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-20T17:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-24T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "95.57", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Mars, OSIRIS-REx, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-01-20T17:35:22Z\n## Message ID: 20220120-AL-008\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-01-20T06:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1426 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 44 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 97/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-01-20T06:12:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-01-20T09:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~503 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 52/-1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-01-20T09:09:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-01-20T06:12Z may affect Mars and OSIRIS-REx. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2022-01-23T07:30Z and OSIRIS-REx at 2022-01-23T05:29Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the C-type CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 at 2022-01-20T09:09Z may impact STEREO B and may give a glancing blow to NASA missions near Earth. The leading edge of the CME may impact STEREO B at 2022-01-23T17:03Z (plus minus 7 hours) and the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-01-24T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor). This is a preliminary measurement and this event is still being analyzed as more imagery becomes available. \n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-01-20T06:12:00-CME-001, 2022-01-20T09:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220120_082700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220120_082700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220120_082700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220120_082700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220120_082700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220120_082700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe CME associated with Activity ID 2022-01-20T06:12:00-CME-001 is associated with an M5.5 flare with ID 2022-01-20T05:41:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-01-20T06:01Z (see notifications 20220120-AL-001, 20220120-AL-004), an SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-01-20T07:20:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220120-AL-002, 20220120-AL-006), an SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-01-20T08:00:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20220120-AL-003), an SEP at SOHO with ID 2022-01-20T08:07:00-SEP-001, and an SEP at SOHO with ID 2022-01-20T08:10:00-SEP-001.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-20T20:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-23T20:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "93.00", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-01-20T20:09:53Z\n## Message ID: 20220120-AL-009\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2022-01-20T09:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220120-AL-008). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO B at 2022-01-23T12:17Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-01-23T20:19Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\nStart time of the event: 2022-01-20T09:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~538 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 37/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-01-20T09:09:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-01-20T09:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220120_154600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220120_154600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220120_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220120_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-21T02:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-23T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-33.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "87.15", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-21T04:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-23T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : -20, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.65", "predictionNote" : "slow CME associated with relatively small filament in solar SW quadrant, CME didnt who that much expansion around the Sn and appeared to be mostly westward directed - maybe a glancing blow,no significant geomagnetic activity expected" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-21T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-23T16:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.15", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 530.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 585.826\nAcceleration: -0.520502\nDuration in seconds: 284775.99\nDuration in days: 3.2960184\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.52 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 437.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/01/2022 Time: 16:15 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-21T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-23T09:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.15", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 530.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 333.390\nAcceleration: 1.76284\nDuration in seconds: 259315.00\nDuration in days: 3.0013310\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.76 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 790.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/01/2022 Time: 09:10 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-21T07:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-23T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.53", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-22T04:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-24T02:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 62.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.28", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-01-22T12:49:46Z ## Message ID: 20220122-AL-002 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-01-20T09:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20220120-AL-008, 20220120-AL-009). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2022-01-23T15:54Z and 2022-01-24T03:32Z (average arrival 2022-01-23T21:17Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-01-23T21:10Z and 2022-01-24T06:46Z (average arrival 2022-01-24T02:31Z) for 62% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110/20220120_090900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110/20220120_090900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110/20220120_090900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110/20220120_090900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110/20220120_090900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110/20220120_090900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-21_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110/Detailed_results_20220120_090900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX110.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-22T15:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-24T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.73", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-01-20T16:42Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 478\nLongitude (deg): 59W\nLatitude (deg): 2S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 32\n\nNotes: Mostly passing ahead. \nSpace weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-23T19:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 48.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-25899.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-23T20:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-25899.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-01-18T18:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-01-18T18:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-01-21T12:55Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It is associated with an M1.5 flare from AR 12929 (N07W53) and brightening/EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 starting aorund 2022-01-18T17:20Z. The source signature is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 toward the NW limb around the same time. The CME arrival includes weak magnetic shock and jumps in solar wind density/speed/temp, preceded by a weak pileup.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-18T23:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-21T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.02", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-01-18T23:54:48Z\n## Message ID: 20220118-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2022-01-18T18:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~962 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 47 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 53/4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2022-01-18T18:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO B at 2022-01-20T20:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-01-21T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (CME 2022-01-18T18:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220118_212800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220118_212800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220118_212800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220118_212800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2022-01-18T18:23:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.5 flare with ID 2022-01-18T17:01:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 12929 which peaked at 2022-01-18T17:44Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-19T00:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-21T02:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.83", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-01-18 21:28\n - Time at C2: 2022-01-18 18:23\n - Radial speed: 962.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 47 deg\n . Eruption location: N04W53\n Inferences:\n - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n - In-situ shock speed: 694.60 km/s\n - Shock arrival time: 2022-01-21 02:23 (i.e. predicted transit time: 56.00 hours)\n\nKp: {3.0 - 4.0]" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-19T02:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-22T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : -25, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.12", "predictionNote" : "Estimate produced using LASCO and STEREO A coronagraph images. The Enlil run appears to show the main body of the CME heading perhaps more towards STEREO B location, so estimating the Kp is difficult." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-19T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-20T20:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.92", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 962.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1029.49\nAcceleration: -2.50947\nDuration in seconds: 181826.92\nDuration in days: 2.1044782\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.51 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 573.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 20/01/2022 Time: 20:53 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-19T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-21T09:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.92", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 962.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 567.966\nAcceleration: 0.646437\nDuration in seconds: 227171.82\nDuration in days: 2.6293034\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.65 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 714.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 21/01/2022 Time: 09:29 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-19T10:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-21T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.27", "predictionNote" : "See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:\n\n\n:Issued: 2022 Jan 19 1231 UTC\n...\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 20119\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jan 2022, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Jan 2022 until 21 Jan 2022)\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2022 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 025\nPREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2022 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 024\nPREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2022 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 022\nCOMMENT: There are 4 visible active regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 2929\nproduced an M1.5 flare peaking at 17:44 UT on 18 January. This region has\ndecayed into a beta magnetic field configuration, region 2930 can also\nproduce flaring activity. C-class flares can be expected in the next 24\nhours, more M-class flares are possible. In the case of large flares, since\nthese active regions are located close to the west limb, a proton event is\npossible at the Earth,\n\nThe flare described above was related to a CME of about 90 degrees width,\ndirected to the northwest with a speed of 900 km/s. A possible glancing\nblow at the Earth can be expected on 21 January." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-19T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-22T00:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.42", "predictionNote" : "M1.5 flare from AR2929 which peaked 18Jan 17:44UTC. Most CME material expected to miss Earth with glancing blow likely." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-20T01:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-21T14:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.983, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.55, "confidenceInPercentage" : 12.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.92", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2022-01-20T13:13:59Z\n## Message ID: 20220120-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-01-18T18:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220118-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2022-01-20T19:59Z and 2022-01-21T07:06Z (average arrival 2022-01-21T01:25Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-01-21T09:02Z and 2022-01-21T17:34Z (average arrival 2022-01-21T14:01Z) for 12% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109/20220118_182300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109/20220118_182300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109/20220118_182300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109/20220118_182300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109/20220118_182300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109/20220118_182300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-01-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109/Detailed_results_20220118_182300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX109.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-20T09:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-21T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.03", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-21T13:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.4, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.71429, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.28571, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-25976.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-21T14:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-25976.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-01-16T20:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-01-16T20:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-01-18T23:04Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is associated with a C2.6 flare from active region 12929 (N08W30). The eruption is characterized by opening field lines and dimming best seen in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2022-01-16T19:20Z. The eruption is also visible in the northwest in STEREO A EUVI 195 with the same source signatures. UPDATE: This arrival signature exhibits an increase B-tot from 5 to 9nT with a coinciding increase in density. A subsequent rotation can be seen in the B-field components corresponding with a decrease in temperature that is indicative of a flux rope passage.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-18T03:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-20T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.77", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-01-17T02:35Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 562\nLongitude (deg): W024\nLatitude (deg): N10\nHalf-angular width (deg): 19\n\nNotes: Re-analysis of CME spawned from long-period C2 flare from AR2929 in NW quadrant. Main bulk of ejecta angled above and ahead of Earth in orbit, but some evidence of concurrent emission to N and NE of ecliptic may make for some form of partial halo, most visible on Lasco C2. MOSWOC Enlil deterministic run is a very faint glancing blow, but significant minority of MOSWOC Enlil ensemble members have a stronger hit, mainly within UTC day of Thursday 20 January. Low confidence given uncertainty in attributing N and NE-heading portions of any ejecta, higher confidence in main NW-heading portion.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-18T03:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-20T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "33.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.17", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-18T18:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-20T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "5.05", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18879/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-01-16T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=610.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2022-01-17T02:12Z\n2022-01-17T14:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=56.0, Lat.=28.0, Speed=451.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2022-01-17T23:11Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-01-20T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-01-19T14:59Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-20T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26037.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-20T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26037.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2022-01-15T16:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2022-01-15T16:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2022-01-18T23:04Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The potential source is activity centered around N15W15, which includes an eruption with rising loops around 2022-01-15T12:00Z and eruption just south of the rising loops characterized by dimming around 2022-01-15T13:00Z. One of these eruptions is also potentially associated with the 2022-01-15T14:00Z CME, which overlaps with this CME in the coronagraphs.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-16T15:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-19T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.55", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18857/1\nModel Inputs:\n2022-01-15T14:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=17.0, Speed=343.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2022-01-15T23:41Z\n2022-01-15T16:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=5.0, Lat.=34.0, Speed=416.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2022-01-16T02:08Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-01-19T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-01-19T06:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2022-01-17T12:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-19T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.55", "predictionNote" : "Excerpt from SIDC Ursigram\n\n:Issued: 2022 Jan 17 1231 UTC\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 20117\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Jan 2022, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Jan 2022 until 19 Jan 2022) \nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) \nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) \nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet \nPREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2022 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 018 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jan 2022 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 011 \nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2022 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 007\n\n...\n\nThere were two faint and slow CMEs on 15 January, and one on 16 January, related to eruptions around NOAA AR 2929. The eruptions were mostly directed to the north, but since the active region was close to central meridian, an Earth directed component cannot be discarded (there is only sparse STEREO data available), with an estimated arrival time around 19-20 January.\n\n...\n\n###" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-19T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26037.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2022-01-19T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26037.87", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-12-24T17:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-12-24T17:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-12-27T08:35Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faintly visible as a partial halo SSW in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo SSE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. May possibly be associated with a filament eruption visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-12-24T10:30Z, with rising field lines faintly visible in SDO AIA 171 around the same time, and coronal change across the data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195 between 2021-12-23T21:15Z and 2021-12-24T10:55Z. | Arrival analysis details from Lan Jian: \"Because the mag field rotations and enhanced magnetic field lasted a long time, from late Dec 27 to about Dec 28 16:00, I think there is a CME encounter starting with a shock at 8:35 on Dec 27. The aforementioned field rotation region corresponds to the magnetic obstacle. The CME is overlapping with a stream interaction region (consistent with the ENLIL solar wind run at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction). I would consider this as a CME+SIR hybrid/merged structure.\"", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-12-25T21:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-28T07:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.72", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18653/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-12-24T17:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-14.0, Lat.=-36.0, Speed=443.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2021-12-25T01:34Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-12-28T07:06Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =22.6 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.7\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-12-28T10:12Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-12-28T14:30Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-12-28T14:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211225_013400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-12-26T05:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-28T01:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.25", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-12-27T20:53Z and 2021-12-28T14:44Z (average arrival 2021-12-28T07:24Z) for 60% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2021-12-28T05:08Z and 2021-12-28T05:08Z (average arrival 2021-12-28T05:08Z) for 2% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-12-27T16:37Z and 2021-12-28T06:56Z (average arrival 2021-12-28T01:04Z) for 95% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 92% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/Detailed_results_20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-28T04:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26580.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-28T04:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26580.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-12-15T05:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-12-15T05:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-12-19T18:28Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is associated with an eruption near AR 12907 (near S25E45) which exhibits dimming and a small EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning 2021-12-15T01:30Z. Northward deflection of source is apparent in SDO's field-of-view. UPDATE (2021-12-24T18:17Z): Field component rotation indicating a potential flux rope buried in the 2021-12-19 high speed stream arrival signature, from 2021-12-19T18:28Z to 2021-12-19T20:35Z, may possibly be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2021-12-14T17:38Z and 2021-12-15T05:00Z. The overall solar wind signatures for density, speed, and temperature are dominated by the 2021-12-19 high speed stream arrival, with only small changes that might support the field signature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-12-15T20:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-18T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-33.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "94.08", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-12-15T20:23:45Z\n## Message ID: 20211215-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-12-15T05:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~680 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -42/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-12-15T05:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2021-12-17T22:17Z (plus minus 7 hours) and the flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2021-12-18T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-12-18T09:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2021-12-15T05:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_113300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_113300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_113300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_113300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-12-15T05:00:00-CME-001) is associated with a C2.1 flare with ID 2021-12-15T01:36:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-12-15T01:46Z. The source of this CME and flare is Active Region 12907.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-12-16T03:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-18T01:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 16.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-40.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "87.20", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2021-12-16T12:39:51Z ## Message ID: 20211216-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2021-12-15T05:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20211215-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-12-17T19:34Z and 2021-12-18T13:42Z (average arrival 2021-12-18T04:14Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-12-17T21:54Z and 2021-12-18T06:28Z (average arrival 2021-12-18T01:47Z) for 16% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 62% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-15_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105/20211215_050000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-15_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105/20211215_050000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-15_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105/20211215_050000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-15_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105/20211215_050000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-15_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105/20211215_050000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-15_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105/20211215_050000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe initial non-ensemble simulation of this CME also predicted a glancing blow at Solar Orbiter (see previous notification 20211215-AL-002).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-15_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105/Detailed_results_20211215_050000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX105.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-18T05:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 16.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-37.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26762.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-18T05:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 16.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-37.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26762.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-12-14T17:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-12-19T18:28Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME event is associated with a filament eruption from center of the Earth-facing disk as seen in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2021-12-14T11:14Z. The filament is estimated to be about 30 degrees wide; centered near N27W08. UPDATE (2021-12-24T18:15Z): Field component rotation indicating a potential flux rope buried in the 2021-12-19 high speed stream arrival signature, from 2021-12-19T18:28Z to 2021-12-19T20:35Z, may possibly be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2021-12-14T17:38Z and 2021-12-15T05:00Z. The overall solar wind signatures for density, speed, and temperature are dominated by the 2021-12-19 high speed stream arrival, with only small changes that might support the field signature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-12-15T20:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-18T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "94.38", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18543/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=8.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=305.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2021-12-15T00:13Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-12-18T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-18T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26762.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-18T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26762.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-12-06T05:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-12-06T05:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-12-10T13:27Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo visible in the S in SOHO LASCO/C2; no STEREO A imagery available. Associated with a slow filament eruption centered near S50W10, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-12-06T01:00Z. Slow eruption that takes quite a long time between the eruption in SDO FOV and the CME appearing in the C2 FOV. Weak combined arrival signature with the CME with ID 2021-12-05T14:36:00-CME-001. Gradual increase in B_total, peaking at 9.95nT at 2021-12-11T03:27Z, increases also seen in density, temperature, and briefly in the solar wind speed (peaking at 337km/s).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-12-06T13:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-11T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "25.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "96.37", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18461/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-12-06T05:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-41.0, Speed=204.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2021-12-06T23:23Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-12-11T15:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-12-11T15:00Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-12-11T17:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-12-07T07:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-10T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "78.20", "predictionNote" : "Assessed as a filament eruption beginning 05/2200-2300 approx S20 E20, giving partial halo on LASCO C2 imagery. No Stereo A data." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-11T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26983.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-11T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26983.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-12-05T14:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-12-05T14:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-12-10T13:27Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo S in SOHO LASCO C2; during STEREO A data gap. Associated with a filament eruption centered near S45W10 (filament extending from E20 to W40), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-12-05T11:30Z. Weak combined arrival signature with the CME with ID 2021-12-06T05:48:00-CME-001. Gradual increase in B_total, peaking at 9.95nT at 2021-12-11T03:27Z, increases also seen in density, temperature, and briefly in the solar wind speed (peaking at 337km/s).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-12-05T16:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-09T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "116.90", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18447/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-12-05T14:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-26.0, Speed=248.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2021-12-06T04:26Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-12-09T23:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-12-09T23:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_042600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-12-06T01:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-09T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "108.45", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-12-05T23:37Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 325\nLongitude (deg): 19E\nLatitude (deg): 20S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 30\n\nNotes: Low confidence. No Stereo A imagery and weak signal. Bulk of CME likely passing south of Earth.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-09T20:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26983.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-09T20:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-26983.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-11-29T10:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-11-29T10:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-12-04T11:51Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source of this CME is a filament eruption centered around S25E10. The filament eruption is visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-11-29T08:00Z. It is also visible as dimming in SDO AIA 193. Arrival indicated by sudden but weak Bx-By field component rotation accompanied by weak pileup. Followed by field component rotation indicating a flux rope, beginning 2021-12-04T20:12Z. From Teresa: there are signatures of ICME starting at 12 UT of Dec 4 and flux rope signatures right at 20 UT.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-29T15:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-02T10:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-48.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "116.67", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-11-29T15:11:00Z\n## Message ID: 20211129-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-11-29T10:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~600 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -5/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-11-29T10:38:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2021-12-02T12:12Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-12-02T10:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2021-11-29T10:38:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211129_154400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211129_154400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211129_154400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211129_154400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME is still being analyzed as more imagery becomes available.\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-29T19:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-02T05:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-53.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "112.65", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-11-29 15:44\n - Time at C2: 2021-11-29 10:38\n - Radial speed: 600.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 27 deg\n - Eruption location: S19E05\n Inferences:\n - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n - In-situ shock speed: 586.00 km/s\n - Shock arrival time: 2021-12-02 05:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.23 hours)\n\nKP= [3.0 - 4.0]" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-29T20:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-02T08:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.57, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.73, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-51.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "111.50", "predictionNote" : "## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2021-11-29T10:38:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20211129-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2021-12-02T09:30Z and 2021-12-02T20:42Z (average arrival 2021-12-02T16:22Z) for 43% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-12-02T02:40Z and 2021-12-02T12:58Z (average arrival 2021-12-02T08:24Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 82% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-29_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104/20211129_103800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-29_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104/20211129_103800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-29_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104/20211129_103800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-29_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104/20211129_103800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-29_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104/20211129_103800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-29_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104/20211129_103800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2021-11-29T10:38:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have a potential impact to Solar Orbiter at 2021-12-02T12:12Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20211129-AL-001). \n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-29_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104/Detailed_results_20211129_103800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX104.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-30T03:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-02T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-39.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "104.05", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-30T07:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-02T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-51.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "100.60", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-30T08:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-02T12:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-47.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "99.85", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 600.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 657.716\nAcceleration: -0.812127\nDuration in seconds: 265579.25\nDuration in days: 3.0738339\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.81 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 442.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 02/12/2021 Time: 12:24 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-30T08:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-02T09:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-50.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "99.85", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 600.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 371.400\nAcceleration: 1.60175\nDuration in seconds: 254038.98\nDuration in days: 2.9402660\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.60 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 778.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 02/12/2021 Time: 09:11 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-02T10:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.8, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-49.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27129.08", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-12-02T09:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-50.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27129.08", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-11-24T14:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-11-24T14:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-11-27T21:50Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and in the S in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with an eruption near S30E20. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and EUVIA 195/304 beginning 2021-11-24T13:00Z. CME arrival marked by a sudden increase in B total, which reached 17 nT. Density and temperature also increased during the shock and pileup. The solar wind increased from 300 km/s to 380 km/s during the shock.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-24T17:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-27T13:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.68", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18364/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-11-24T14:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=561.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2021-11-24T19:47Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-11-27T13:24Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =21.0 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-27T13:45Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-28T01:00Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-27T14:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-24T23:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-27T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.00", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-25T02:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-27T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.83", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-25T02:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-27T13:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.8, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.30", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2021-11-24T14:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20211124-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-11-27T12:08Z and 2021-11-28T01:07Z (average arrival 2021-11-27T18:32Z) for 52% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2021-11-27T05:48Z and 2021-11-27T11:38Z (average arrival 2021-11-27T08:36Z) for 20% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-11-27T05:00Z and 2021-11-27T22:14Z (average arrival 2021-11-27T13:25Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 83% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103/20211124_140900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103/20211124_140900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103/20211124_140900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103/20211124_140900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103/20211124_140900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103/20211124_140900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103/20211124_140900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103/20211124_140900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe previous non-ensemble simulation (see notification 20211124-AL-001) also showed impact to Solar Orbiter.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103/Detailed_results_20211124_140900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX103.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-25T10:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-27T10:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.83", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-11-24 19:47\n . Time at C2: 2021-11-24 14:09\n . Radial speed: 561.0 km/s\n . Half angle: 31 deg\n . Eruption location: S16E03\n Inferences:\n . No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n . In-situ shock speed: 574.30 km/s\n . Shock arrival time: 2021-11-27 10:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 68.72 hours)\n\nKp = [4.0 - 5.0]" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-25T11:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-28T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.63", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-25T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-27T19:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.83", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 561.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 617.663\nAcceleration: -0.648188\nDuration in seconds: 276837.36\nDuration in days: 3.2041362\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.65 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 438.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 27/11/2021 Time: 19:02 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-25T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-27T13:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.83", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 561.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 350.223\nAcceleration: 1.69244\nDuration in seconds: 257324.09\nDuration in days: 2.9782881\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.69 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 785.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 27/11/2021 Time: 13:37 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-27T17:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 76.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.2, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27287.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-27T15:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27287.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-11-02T02:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-11-02T02:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T19:23Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is associated with a long-duration M1.6 flare from AR 12891 and a corresponding eruption signature can be seen in the available SDO AIA imagery toward the center of the Earth-facing disk as early as 2021-11-01T23:37Z. The shock was most probably caused by the combined arrival of this CME and the 2021-11-01T18:38Z CME and exhibited a dramatic increase in B_tot first to 14 nT at 2021-11-03T19:55Z and then to the maximum of 24 nT at 21:07Z, with corresponding increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (to speeds around 700 km/s, with a maximum of 809 km/s). There is a clear flux rope, accompanied by a drop in temperature the next morning. There was an associated magnetopause crossing and a strong geomagnetic storm, with 5 synoptic periods of Kp above 6 (three of them with Kp=7).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-02T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T21:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.38", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1150.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1222.57\nAcceleration: -3.51607\nDuration in seconds: 154414.83\nDuration in days: 1.7872087\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -3.52 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 679.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 03/11/2021 Time: 21:41 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-02T12:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-04T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "26.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.32", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-02T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-04T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.88", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1150.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 670.050\nAcceleration: 0.0694960\nDuration in seconds: 216747.01\nDuration in days: 2.5086460\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.07 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 685.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 04/11/2021 Time: 15:00 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-02T14:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.38", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-02T15:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T16:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.93", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18168/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-11-01T18:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=-27.0, Speed=545.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T00:43Z\n2021-11-01T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=41.0, Lat.=-17.0, Speed=829.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T01:49Z\n2021-11-02T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=15.0, Speed=1335.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T04:57Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-11-03T16:48Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =31.2 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.2\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T08:03Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T11:53Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-04T01:37Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T21:14Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-02T17:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T21:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.65", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18171/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-11-01T18:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=32.0, Lat.=-30.0, Speed=509.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T01:20Z\n2021-11-01T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=43.0, Lat.=-19.0, Speed=771.0, HalfAngle=49.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T02:00Z\n2021-11-02T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=16.0, Speed=1151.0, HalfAngle=51.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T05:52Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-11-03T21:39Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =29.7 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.2\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T06:39Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T16:14Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-04T02:08Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-04T00:56Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-02T17:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-04T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.63", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-03T01:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.23", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-03T03:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-04T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -170, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2021-11-04T15:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "13.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.38", "predictionNote" : "Notice = ADVISORY, Issued = 2021-11-03_03:00, Mins_Elaps = 47, PredictStart = 2021-11-04_09:00, PredictPeak = 2021-11-04_15:00, EL = 60, GX = G3, DST = -170, Pr = 2, Sr = NN, Velocity = 750, streamB_status = ME, issue_time_tag = 2021-11-03_03:47, CID = C025" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-03T04:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-04T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.38", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-03T06:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-04T09:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.6, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.63", "predictionNote" : "Model & CME input parameters:\n\nPrediction Method: DBEMv3\n\nPrediction Method Note:\nDrag-based model in ensemble mode v3 (DBEMv3-ESA/SSA application)\nhttp://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather\n\nModel & CME input parameters (CME input taken from Donki):\nstart time: 2021-11-02 05:50 (+/-30 min)\nstart distance: 21.5 Rsun\ninitial speed: 1150 km/s (+/-200)\nhalfwidth: 50 deg (+/-15)\nlon: -5 deg (+/-30)\nsolar wind speed: 349 km/s (+/-50)\ngamma: 0.2 (+/-0.1)\n------\nprobability of arrival: 100%\nCME arrival date & time: 2021-11-04 09:50 (+6.7h, -6.6h)\nCME arrival speed: 497 km/s (+91 km/s, -66 km/s)\n------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-03T13:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-04T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "5.93", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-03T19:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T17:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 16.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-0.25", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-11-03T09:34Z and 2021-11-04T13:19Z (average arrival 2021-11-03T20:42Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2021-11-03T14:21Z and 2021-11-04T14:26Z (average arrival 2021-11-03T23:46Z) for 79% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-11-03T08:25Z and 2021-11-04T10:10Z (average arrival 2021-11-03T17:42Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 69% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/Detailed_results_20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-03T21:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T17:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1.70", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nNotification information (STEREO A, STEREO B, missions near Earth)\n\n.... Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-11-03T09:29Z and 2021-11-04T14:02Z (average arrival 2021-11-03T20:58Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2021-11-03T13:05Z and 2021-11-04T13:38Z (average arrival 2021-11-03T23:28Z) for 66% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-11-03T08:05Z and 2021-11-04T10:31Z (average arrival 2021-11-03T17:31Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 58% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/Detailed_results_20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CAT-PUMA", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-03T22:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-04T09:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-3.35", "predictionNote" : "This is a prediction for the CME at 2021-11-02 02:48 UT\n\nCME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 & C3:\nOnset time: 2021-11-02 02:48 UT\nAngular width: 360\nAverage speed: 1141.3 km/s\nFinal speed: 1124.4 km/s\nMass: 6.51e15 g\nMPA: 46.2 degree\n\nSolar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft:\nBz: -0.272 nT\nAlpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041 # No observation, use average value in the model\nFlow Speed: 562.687 km/s\nFlow Latitude: 4.688 degree\nPressure: 2.386 nPa\nFlow Longitude: 2.768 degree\nBx: -2.267 nT\nTemperature: 348060.0 K" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-04T01:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-04T03:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6.50", "predictionNote" : "Initial speed: 1150 km/s\nSource location: N17E05\nSolar wind speed: 500 km/s\nDuration time: 2.0 hrs" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-04T01:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-04T01:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-6.53", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 1150 km/s\nSolar wind speed: 500 km/s\nDuration time: 2.0 hrs" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-04T01:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27865.55", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-04T03:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 91.4286, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.77778, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27865.55", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-11-01T18:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-11-01T18:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T19:23Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is seen to the southwest in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs. The source of this CME appears to be a C1.3 class flare from Active Region 12887 (S28W58) and an accompanying eruption seen in AIA 193 and 171. The shock caused most probably by the combined arrival of this CME and the 2021-11-02T02:48Z CME is characterized by the dramatic increase in B_tot, first to 14 nT at 2021-11-03T19:55Z and then to the maximum of 24 nT at 21:07Z, with corresponding increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (to speeds around 700 km/s, with a maximum of 809 km/s). There is a clear flux rope, accompanied by a drop in ion temperature the next morning. The arrival of this combined CME front was marked by an associated magnetopause crossing and a strong geomagnetic storm, with 5 synoptic periods of Kp above 6 (three of them with Kp=7).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-02T15:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T16:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.93", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18168/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-11-01T18:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=-27.0, Speed=545.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T00:43Z\n2021-11-01T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=41.0, Lat.=-17.0, Speed=829.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T01:49Z\n2021-11-02T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=15.0, Speed=1335.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T04:57Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-11-03T16:48Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =31.2 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.2\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T08:03Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T11:53Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-04T01:37Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T21:14Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-02T17:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T21:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.65", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18171/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-11-01T18:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=32.0, Lat.=-30.0, Speed=509.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T01:20Z\n2021-11-01T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=43.0, Lat.=-19.0, Speed=771.0, HalfAngle=49.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T02:00Z\n2021-11-02T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=16.0, Speed=1151.0, HalfAngle=51.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T05:52Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-11-03T21:39Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =29.7 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.2\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T06:39Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T16:14Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-04T02:08Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-04T00:56Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-11-03T21:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T17:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-1.70", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nNotification information (STEREO A, STEREO B, missions near Earth)\n\n.... Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-11-03T09:29Z and 2021-11-04T14:02Z (average arrival 2021-11-03T20:58Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2021-11-03T13:05Z and 2021-11-04T13:38Z (average arrival 2021-11-03T23:28Z) for 66% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-11-03T08:05Z and 2021-11-04T10:31Z (average arrival 2021-11-03T17:31Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 58% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006/Detailed_results_20211102_024900_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA006.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T18:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27865.55", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-11-03T17:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27865.55", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-10-28T15:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-10-31T09:13Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Significant CME SW in COR2A and full halo in C2/C3. Source: X1.0 class flare from AR 2887 at S26W4 peaking at 2021-10-28T15:35Z and an associated significant eruption (with a EUV wave) seen in AIA 193/171/304 and EUVI A 195/304 starting 2021-10-28T15:25Z. CME arrival marked by sudden increase in magnetic field and solar wind speed and density, with B total briefly reaching 13 nT. The flux rope is clearly seen on the next day.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-28T19:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-30T17:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.00", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-10-28T19:13:13Z\n## Message ID: 20211028-AL-010\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-10-28T15:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1109 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 0/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-10-30T06:54Z, Solar Orbiter at 2021-10-30T07:07Z, STEREO A at 2021-10-30T23:44Z, and STEREO B at 2021-10-30T20:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-10-30T17:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: O-type CME 2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001 and S-type CME 2021-10-28T01:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nThis CME event (2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.0 flare with ID 2021-10-28T15:17:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-10-28T15:35Z (see notifications 20211028-AL-001, 20211028-AL-002), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2021-10-28T16:16:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20211028-AL-003, 20211028-AL-006), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2021-10-28T16:35:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20211028-AL-004, 20211028-AL-005, 20211028-AL-007), and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2021-10-28T17:40:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20211028-AL-008, 20211028-AL-009).\n\nThis CME was simulated with an earlier, S-type, CME (2021-10-28T01:23:00-CME-001) detected by STEREO A at 2021-10-28T01:23Z and associated with a C1.1 flare with ID 2021-10-27T21:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-10-27T21:59Z.\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-28T21:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-30T20:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.22", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-10-28 18:52\n . Time at C2: 2021-10-28 15:53\n . Radial speed: 1109.0 km/s\n . Half angle: 49 deg\n . Eruption location: S17W00\n Inferences:\n . No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n . In-situ shock speed: 738.70 km/s\n . Shock arrival time: 2021-10-30 20:20 (i.e. predicted transit time: 52.45 hours)\n\nKp: 6.0 - 7.0" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T02:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-30T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.22", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T02:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-31T11:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.70", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 1109 km/s\nSolar wind speed: 350 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hrs (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T02:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-31T07:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.62", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 1109 km/s\nSource location: S17W04\nSolar wind speed: 350 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hrs (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T04:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-30T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.22", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T04:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-30T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.95", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 4.5\nGONG: mrzqs\nNote that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.Please specify following CME input parameters.\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 1200\nLongitude (deg): -1\nLatitude (deg): -20\nHalf-angular width (deg): 52\nGONG input filename: mrzql211028t2204c2250_207.fits\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T05:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-30T18:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.9, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.2, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.32", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-10-29T12:08:47Z\n## Message ID: 20211029-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with ID 2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20211029-AL-001, 20211028-AL-10). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-10-30T17:04Z and 2021-10-31T15:53Z (average arrival 2021-10-31T01:53Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2021-10-30T15:25Z and 2021-10-31T04:14Z (average arrival 2021-10-30T22:03Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-10-30T13:04Z and 2021-10-31T01:16Z (average arrival 2021-10-30T18:55Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 65% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101/20211028_155300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101/20211028_155300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101/20211028_155300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101/20211028_155300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101/20211028_155300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101/20211028_155300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101/20211028_155300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101/20211028_155300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis CME event (2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001) is also predicted to reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-10-30T06:54Z and Solar Orbiter at 2021-10-30T07:07Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notifications 20211029-AL-001, 20211028-AL-010).\n\nThis CME event (2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.0 flare with ID 2021-10-28T15:17:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-10-28T15:35Z (see notifications 20211028-AL-001, 20211028-AL-002), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2021-10-28T16:16:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20211028-AL-003, 20211028-AL-006), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2021-10-28T16:35:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20211028-AL-004, 20211028-AL-005, 20211028-AL-007), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2021-10-28T17:40:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20211028-AL-008, 20211028-AL-009), and SEP at MODEL with ID 2021-10-28T18:28:00-SEP-001.\n\nThis CME was simulated with an earlier, S-type, CME (2021-10-28T01:23:00-CME-001) detected by STEREO A at 2021-10-28T01:23Z and associated with a C1.1 flare with ID 2021-10-27T21:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-10-27T21:59Z.\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101/Detailed_results_20211028_155300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX101.txt\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CAT-PUMA", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T08:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-31T14:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.10", "predictionNote" : "This is a prediction for the CME at 2021-10-28 15:48 UT\n\nCME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 & C3:\nOnset time: 2021-10-28 15:48 UT\nAngular width: 285.8\nAverage speed: 1137.0 km/s\nFinal speed: 1092.3 km/s\nMass: 9.74e15 g\nMPA: 187.9\n\nSolar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft:\nBz: 1.346 nT\nAlpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041 # No observation, use average value in the model\nFlow Speed: 304.237 km/s\nFlow Latitude: 1.618 degree\nPressure: 1.023 nPa\nFlow Longitude: 6.902 degree\nBx: 0.848 nT\nTemperature: 16318.1 K" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T08:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-31T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.83", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T08:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-31T03:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.7, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.6, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.53", "predictionNote" : "Model & CME input parameters:\nPrediction Method: DBEMv3\n\nPrediction Method Note:\nDrag-based model in ensemble mode v3 (DBEMv3-ESA/SSA application)\nhttp://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather\n\nModel & CME input parameters (CME input taken from Donki):\nstart time: 2021-10-28 18:50 (+/-30 min)\nstart distance: 21.5 Rsun\ninitial speed: 1100 km/s (+/-200)\nhalfwidth: 50 deg (+/-15)\nlon: 0 deg (+/-30)\nsolar wind speed: 309 km/s (+/-50)\ngamma: 0.1 (+/-0.1)\n------\nprobability of arrival: 100%\nCME arrival date & time: 2021-10-31 03:07 (+7.6h, -7.7h)\nCME arrival speed: 497 km/s (+91 km/s, -64 km/s)\n------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T09:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-30T12:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.22", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1109.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1180.46\nAcceleration: -3.28925\nDuration in seconds: 160396.50\nDuration in days: 1.8564410\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -3.29 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 652.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 30/10/2021 Time: 12:26 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T09:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-31T04:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.22", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1109.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 647.787\nAcceleration: 0.200029\nDuration in seconds: 219532.20\nDuration in days: 2.5408819\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.20 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 691.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/10/2021 Time: 04:51 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T12:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-30T16:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.10", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-10-29T12:07:28Z\n## Message ID: 20211029-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20211028-AL-010). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME has little or no impact on Juno or Dawn.\n\nPrevious simulations also estimate that the CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-10-30T06:54Z, Solar Orbiter at 2021-10-30T07:07Z, STEREO A at 2021-10-30T23:44Z and STEREO B at 2021-10-30T20:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nPrevious simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-10-30T16:54Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n\nCME parameters are (O-type):\n\nStart time of the event: 2021-10-28T15:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1109 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 0/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: O-type CME 2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001 and S-type CME 2021-10-28T01:23:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Dawn_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.0 flare with ID 2021-10-28T15:17:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-10-28T15:35Z (see notifications 20211028-AL-001, 20211028-AL-002), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2021-10-28T16:16:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20211028-AL-003, 20211028-AL-006), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2021-10-28T16:35:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20211028-AL-004, 20211028-AL-005, 20211028-AL-007), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2021-10-28T17:40:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20211028-AL-008, 20211028-AL-009), and SEP at MODEL with ID 2021-10-28T18:28:00-SEP-001.\n\nThis CME was simulated with an earlier, S-type, CME (2021-10-28T01:23:00-CME-001) detected by STEREO A at 2021-10-28T01:23Z and associated with a C1.1 flare with ID 2021-10-27T21:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-10-27T21:59Z.\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-29T16:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-30T19:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.17", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-30T19:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27947.72", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-30T22:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.42857, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.71429, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-27947.72", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-10-12T03:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-10-12T03:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-10-16T00:09Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Very faint partial halo W in C2,C3 (front not seen in COR2A b/c of a large overlapping data gap from 2021-10-11T19:23Z to 2021-10-12T09:23Z). Source: eruption from AR 2882 at N16W30 seen in AIA 193/304 starting after 2021-10-12T02:03Z and associated with multiple higher B-class flares from this active region and an EUV wave seen in AIA 193. Arrival indicated by sharp increase in B_total, reaching 9.76 nT at 2021-10-16T01:40Z, accompanied by pileup and speed increase, in addition to field component rotation indicating potential flux rope and momentary temperature rise indicating potential CME arrival. Kp increased to 3 during the 2021-10-16T00:00Z-03:00Z synoptic period in response but decreased afterward. Field remained amplified for two days following arrival, indicating a complex L1 solar wind signature that included both a far-flank flux rope interaction and a subsequent high-speed stream arrival.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-12T21:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-15T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.90", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO B, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-10-12T21:15:52Z\n## Message ID: 20211012-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-10-12T03:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~512 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 30/-1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-10-12T03:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO B and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO B at 2021-10-15T05:39Z and Solar Orbiter at 2021-10-14T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME might have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-10-15T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor). \n\nThese are very preliminary measurements and further analysis of this event is being carried out. \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-10-12T03:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211012_094000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211012_094000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211012_094000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211012_094000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-10-12T03:24:00-CME-001) is associated with B9.5 flare with ID 2021-10-12T01:36:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 2882 which peaked at 2021-10-12T01:46Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-12T22:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-15T02:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-22.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.65", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-10-12 09:40\n. Time at C2: 2021-10-12 03:24\n. Radial speed: 512.0 km/s\n. Half angle: 35 deg\n. Eruption location: S01W30\n Inferences:\n . No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n . In-situ shock speed: 559.60 km/s\n . Shock arrival time: 2021-10-15 02:06 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.70 hours)\n\nPredicted Kp: [3.0 - 4.0]" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-13T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-15T13:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.15", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 512.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 567.340\nAcceleration: -0.447429\nDuration in seconds: 294536.83\nDuration in days: 3.4089911\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.45 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 435.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 15/10/2021 Time: 13:12 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-13T12:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-15T04:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.90", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 512.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 323.616\nAcceleration: 1.80303\nDuration in seconds: 263284.48\nDuration in days: 3.0472741\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.80 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 798.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 15/10/2021 Time: 04:32 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-14T01:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-16T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.30", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-10-12T17:41\nRadial velocity (km/s): 288\nLongitude (deg): 34W\nLatitude (deg): 3S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 34\n\nNotes: Low confidence as very large STEREO A imagery gap and likely a glancing blow at worst. \nSpace weather advisor: CL" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-14T12:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-15T16:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 0.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 0.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.40", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2021-10-15T02:38Z and 2021-10-15T15:42Z (average arrival 2021-10-15T10:00Z) for 95% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-10-15T16:19Z and 2021-10-15T17:08Z (average arrival 2021-10-15T16:43Z) for 8% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-3 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThis CME event (2021-10-12T03:24:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have a glancing blow at Solar Orbiter at 2021-10-14T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20211012-AL-005).\n\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/Detailed_results_20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-15T15:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 19.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-28316.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-15T12:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 19.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-28316.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-10-09T07:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-10-09T07:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-10-12T01:46Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The CME is a full asymmetrical halo in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. The associated eruption followed the M1.6 class flare from AR 2882 and was characterized by significant dimming, an EUV wave and post-eruptive arcades seen starting after 2021-10-09T06:33Z mostly to the West from AR 2882 in SDO AIA 193, 304, 171 and in EUVI A 195 starting at 2021-10-09T06:33Z. The CME arrival (a clear shock) is characterized by a sudden simultaneous jump of magnetic field (Bz to almost -14 nT), solar wind speed to 450 km/s from 350 km/s and ion density to above 25 cm^-3. Bz was intermittently in the negative for a few hours and B total reached the maximum of 16 nT.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-09T10:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-12T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.22", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Saturday, October 9, 2021 8:11 AM\nTo: gsfc-m2m-team\nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-10-12T01:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 4\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 75\n\n---\n\n:Issued: 2021 Oct 09 1033 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/cactus\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# HALO CME ALERTS from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium), generated by CACTUS #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n\n A halo or partial-halo CME was detected with the following characteristics:\n\n t0 | dt0| pa | da | v | dv | minv| maxv|\n2021-10-09T07:12:07.588 | 1.0 | 251 | 252 | 566 | 99 | 364 | 819 \n\n\n t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff\n dt0: duration of liftoff (hours)\n pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees)\n da: angular width of the CME (degrees),\n v: median velocity (km/s)\n dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME\n mindv: lowest velocity detected within the CME\n maxdv: highest velocity detected within the CME\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-09T11:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-11T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.30", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters TBD\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes: from Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Oct 10 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\n...Region 2882 (N17W01,\nDho/beta-gamma) produced an M1/2b flare at 09/0638 UTC. Associated with\nthe event was a full-halo CME signature which was first observed in\nSOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 09/0712 UTC. A Type II radio sweep\n(608 km/s), Type IV radio sweep, and Tenflare (430 sfu) were also\nobserved with the event. Analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling determined the\nCME to arrive in the near Earth environment near midday on 11 Oct. \n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet, with isolated\nperiods of unsettled possible from potential coronal hole influence,\non 10 Oct. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 11 Oct due to the\narrival of the 09 CME. Active levels to G1 (Minor) storm levels are\nlikely on 12 Oct with lingering CME influence." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-09T15:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-11T09:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.77", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 983.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 1051.06\nAcceleration: -2.61766\nDuration in seconds: 181783.83\nDuration in days: 2.1039795\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.62 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 575.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/10/2021 Time: 09:38 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-09T15:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-11T22:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.77", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 983.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 579.369\nAcceleration: 0.584733\nDuration in seconds: 228729.21\nDuration in days: 2.6473288\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.58 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 713.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/10/2021 Time: 22:41 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-09T15:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-11T07:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.65", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO B, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-10-09T15:07:41Z\n## Message ID: 20211009-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-10-09T07:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~983 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 9/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-10-09T07:09:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, STEREO B, Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2021-10-10T16:55Z, STEREO B at 2021-10-11T15:03Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2021-10-11T19:00Z, and STEREO A at 2021-10-11T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-10-11T07:50Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-10-09T07:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211009_103300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211009_103300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211009_103300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211009_103300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211009_103300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211009_103300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211009_103300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211009_103300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-10-09T07:09:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.6 flare with ID 2021-10-09T06:19:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 12882 which peaked at 2021-10-09T06:38Z and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2021-10-09T07:51:00-SEP-001 (see notification(s) 20211009-AL-001, 20211009-AL-002).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-09T15:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-11T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.27", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-10-09T10:48Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 894\nLongitude (deg): E10\nLatitude (deg): N18\nHalf-angular width (deg): 40\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Jay Merrell" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-09T16:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-11T19:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.60", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-10-09 10:33\n. Time at C2: 2021-10-09 07:09\n. Radial speed: 983.0 km/s\n. Half angle: 45 deg\n. Eruption location: N06W09\n Inferences:\n . Associated flare: M1.6 (N17E09). Peak at 2021-10-09 06:19\n Predictions for Earth:\n . In-situ shock speed: 648.95 km/s\n  . Shock arrival time: 2021-10-11 19:22 (i.e. predicted transit time: 60.22 hours)\n\nKp prediction: [4.0 5.0]" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-09T20:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-11T10:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.27", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-10-11T09:14Z and 2021-10-11T22:16Z (average arrival 2021-10-11T13:47Z) for 43% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2021-10-11T13:19Z and 2021-10-11T23:30Z (average arrival 2021-10-11T18:07Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-10-11T06:13Z and 2021-10-11T15:04Z (average arrival 2021-10-11T10:23Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 74% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097/20211009_070900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097/20211009_070900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097/20211009_070900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097/20211009_070900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097/20211009_070900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097/20211009_070900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097/20211009_070900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097/20211009_070900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-09_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097/Detailed_results_20211009_070900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX097.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-10T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-11T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.27", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-11T01:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-11T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -95, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2021-10-11T16:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-23.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.77", "predictionNote" : "Notice = ADVISORY, Issued = 2021-10-11_00:00, Mins_Elaps = 53, PredictStart = 2021-10-11_02:00, PredictPeak = 2021-10-11_16:00, EL = 60, GX = G3, DST = -95, Pr = 3, Sr = NN, Velocity = 750, streamB_status = ME, issue_time_tag = 2021-10-11_00:53, CID = C106" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2021-10-12T09:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-12T18:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7.28", "predictionNote" : "Initial speed: 608 km/s\nSource location: W01N17\nSolar wind speed: 350 km/s\nDuring time: 0.5 hr (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-11T16:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 91.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-28411.17", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-11T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-28411.17", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-09-28T07:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-09-28T07:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-09-30T14:15Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME source was an eruption from AR2871 around 2021-09-28T05:36Z. This eruption was associated with a C1.6 flare that started at 2021-09-28T05:54Z and peaked at 2021-09-28T06:34Z. From Lan Jian: there is a nice ICME on Oct 1-2. The flux rope part starts at about 12:44 on Oct 1 and sends at about 12:44 on Oct 2. I don’t see any associated shock. If we need to set a start time for the sheath region, I would set at about 14:15 on Sept 30.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-28T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-01T06:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.25", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 649.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 708.039\nAcceleration: -1.02332\nDuration in seconds: 257248.12\nDuration in days: 2.9774087\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.02 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 444.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/10/2021 Time: 06:27 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-28T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-01T05:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.25", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 649.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 398.007\nAcceleration: 1.48442\nDuration in seconds: 253100.45\nDuration in days: 2.9294034\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.48 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 773.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/10/2021 Time: 05:18 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-28T13:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-30T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.77", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\n2-CME simulation\n\nCME input parameters \n\n1) CME Event ID: A7828\nStart Date/Time: 2021-09-28 11:00:00Z \nLatitude: -2°\nLongitude: 7°\nHalf Angle: 37°\nRadial Velocity: 811 km/s\nThis CME was simulated together with a slower CME from 2021-09-27 (parameters below) and was predicted to overtake the earlier CME.\n\n2) CME Event ID: A7827\nStart Date/Time: 2021-09-27 18:25:00Z \nLatitude: -9°\nLongitude: 44°\nHalf Angle: 33°\nRadial Velocity: 565 km/s\n\nNotes:\nFrom Forecast Discussion issued: 2021 Sep 29 1230 UTC\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe partial, asymmetric halo CME produced by Region 2871 (S28W60,\nAxx/alpha) early on the 28th was modeled with a speed of 811 km/s and is\nexpected to overtake the 27th Sep CME, arriving late on 30 Sep/early on\n01 Oct.\nGeospace forecast from Forecast Discussion issued: Sep 30 0030 UTC\nInitially an increase to active\nlevels is expected on 30 Sep, although G1 (Minor) storming cannot be\nentirely ruled out. Nonetheless the best chance for observing G1\ngeomagnetic storms remains early on 01 Oct when CME effects are at their\ngreatest." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-28T16:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-01T10:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.50", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-09-28T16:45:48Z\n## Message ID: 20210928-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-09-28T07:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~649 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 43/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-09-28T07:00:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO B at 2021-10-01T03:25Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-10-01T10:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-09-28T07:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210928_121300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210928_121300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210928_121300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-09-28T07:00:00-CME-001) is associated with B6.9 flare with ID 2021-09-28T05:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-09-28T05:54Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-28T18:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-01T01:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.57, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.80", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2021-09-28T07:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210928-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2021-09-30T20:37Z and 2021-10-01T16:03Z (average arrival 2021-10-01T02:25Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-09-30T16:24Z and 2021-10-01T09:03Z (average arrival 2021-10-01T01:29Z) for 87% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 82% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094/20210928_070000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094/20210928_070000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094/20210928_070000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094/20210928_070000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094/20210928_070000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094/20210928_070000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-28_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094/Detailed_results_20210928_070000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX094.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-28T22:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-01T00:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.25", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-09-28 12:13\n - Time at C2: 2021-09-28 07:00\n - Radial speed: 649.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: S17W43\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 600.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2021-10-01 00:27 (i.e. predicted transit time: 65.45 hours)\n\nKp 4.0 - 5.0" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-29T04:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-30T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.62", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-09-28T11:06Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 861\nLongitude (deg): W024\nLatitude (deg): S10\nHalf-angular width (deg): 41\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Dean Hall" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-29T06:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-01T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.08", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-01T02:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 88.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.2, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-28686.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-10-01T03:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 88.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-28686.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-09-23T05:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-09-26T23:00Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and SW in COR2A. Source: 2.8 class flare in AR 2871 with location S22E28 and eruption seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 extending from AR 2871 NE and SW, with dimming and post-eruptive archades. The CME arrival at L1 is denoted by the increase in magnetic field (B total increase to above 10nT, magnetic field rotation (Bz stayed mostly positive, a clear flux rope is observed) and decrease in ion temperature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-23T20:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-27T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 2.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.38", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPrediction method note:\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17809/1\n\nModel Inputs:\nCME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=300.0, HalfAngle=48.0, Time21.5=2021-09-23T16:44Z\n\nModel Outputs:\nEarth Impact:\nMinor impact at Earth with Shock Arrival Time = 2021-05-27T15:00Z (+- 7 hours)\nPossible Kp index:\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)135=3\n(kp)180=2\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with estimated shock arrival time 2021-09-26T13:32Z\nSolar Orbiter with estimated shock arrival time 2021-09-25T17:39Z\nSTEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2021-09-27T07:00Z (Glancing Blow)\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-pdyn.gif\n\n\nInner Planets\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\nTimelines\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-24T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-26T23:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.00", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 428.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 481.072\nAcceleration: -0.116789\nDuration in seconds: 321199.33\nDuration in days: 3.7175848\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.12 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 443.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/09/2021 Time: 23:01 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-24T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-26T09:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.00", "predictionNote" : "**************************************************************************************\n% Compiled module: EAM\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 428.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nUtilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\nu_r = 278.004\nAcceleration: 1.98387\nDuration in seconds: 271377.28\nDuration in days: 3.1409407\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.98 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 816.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/09/2021 Time: 09:10 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-24T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-26T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.00", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes from discussion:\nG1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm\nlevels on 26 Sep. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions\nare likely on 27 Sep due to continued positive polarity CH HSS\ninfluence coupled with the possibility of a glancing blow from the 23\nSep CMEs." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-24T16:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-26T23:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 2.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.38", "predictionNote" : "A 2-CME simulation. \nThe simulation also includes a faster CME (2021-09-23T16:53:00-CME-001) that followed 2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001 in a few hours/\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17816/1\n\nModel Inputs: \n2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=300.0, HalfAngle=48.0, Time21.5=2021-09-23T16:44Z\n2021-09-23T16:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-16.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=428.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2021-09-23T23:28Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nMinor impact at Earth with Shock Arrival Time = 2021-05-26T23:30Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=2\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-26T10:18Z\nSolar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-25T16:21Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-27T01:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210923_164600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-25T02:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-27T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.42", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-09-22T04:44Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 470 \nLongitude (deg): E010\nLatitude (deg): S24\nHalf-angular width (deg): 18\n\nNotes: Low confidence due to messy CME signal, with bulk likely passing below Earth. But may combine with other CMEs expected. CME may also arrive with CH fast wind enhancement with wide range of Kp possible. \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-25T06:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-26T18:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.98", "predictionNote" : "A 2-CME ensemble simulation. The simulation also includes a faster CME (DONKI 2021-09-23T16:53:00-CME-001) that followed 2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001 in a few hours:\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17816/1\n\nEnsemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-09-26T19:26Z and 2021-09-26T23:08Z (average arrival 2021-09-26T20:59Z) for 8% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-09-26T14:15Z and 2021-09-26T23:08Z (average arrival 2021-09-26T18:50Z) for 66% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 69% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-24_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093/20210923_054800_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-24_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093/20210923_054800_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-24_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093/20210923_054800_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-24_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093/20210923_054800_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-24_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093/20210923_054800_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-24_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093/20210923_054800_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-24_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093/Detailed_results_20210923_054800_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX093.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-26T21:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-28773.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-26T23:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-28773.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-09-13T10:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-09-13T10:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-09-17T01:29Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible as a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center. It starts around 03:54Z and is visible in SDO AIA 193 as dimming, SDO AIA 171 as moving/opening field lines, and SDO AIA 304 as a filament eruption. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: This IPS signature exhibits a notable change in B-field fluctuations (a jump from 4 to 7 nT in B_tot) and an increase in density from 5 to 12 cm^-3. Field rotations are subsequently observed with corresponding drops in temperature, suggesting the passage of one or more flux ropes. This signature later exhibits a southward B_z component with a peak magnitude of 13 nT.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-13T21:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-16T22:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 2.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.57", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17735/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-09-13T10:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=394.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2021-09-13T18:19Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-09-16T22:30Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=2\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-17T03:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-14T13:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-18T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "41.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.63", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Tuesday, September 14, 2021 9:51 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) \nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-09-18T19:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 2\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 5\nprobability_of_arrival: 35\n\n---\n\n:Issued: 2021 Sep 14 1549 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo CME detected by COR2/STEREO-A and LASCO-C2/SOHO at Sep 13 12:00 UT. It is associated with the eruption of a long filament that extended from the North to the North West of the solar disk. The CME has a projected velocity of 300 km/s and an angular width of approximately 300 degrees. It is expected to arrive on Earth late on 18 Sep.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-14T15:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-17T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.13", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-09-13T18:56Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 380\nLongitude (deg): W12\nLatitude (deg): N07\nHalf-angular width (deg): 26 \n\nNotes: Low confidence, based largely off shock from LASCO C2 difference imagery and then fit to STEREO A plasma signal\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-14T23:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-17T01:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 1.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 0.6, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.72", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B. For 40 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2021-09-17T01:28Z and 2021-09-17T09:24Z (average arrival 2021-09-17T05:13Z) for 87% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-09-17T00:27Z and 2021-09-17T02:11Z (average arrival 2021-09-17T01:35Z) for 15% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 99% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/Detailed_results_20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-15T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-17T06:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.48", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 394.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 446.154\nAcceleration: 0.0121871\nDuration in seconds: 332236.08\nDuration in days: 3.8453250\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.01 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 450.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/09/2021 Time: 06:53 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-15T07:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-16T14:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.32", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 394.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nu_r = 259.542\nAcceleration: 2.05393\nDuration in seconds: 274833.83\nDuration in days: 3.1809471\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 2.05 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 824.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/09/2021 Time: 14:56 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-17T08:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 36.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-29011.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-17T04:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-29011.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-09-05T21:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-09-10T01:32Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The observed CME starts to faintly emerge from the SE quadrant of SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2021-09-05T21:36Z, after which a halo feature becomes visible towards the south starting around 2021-09-05T23:36Z. May be associated with the combined eruptions from AR2865 at 2021-09-05T17:54Z (associated with a B7.9 flare) and from AR2864 at 2021-09-05T18:48Z (associated with a B7.0 flare). (CME activity ID: 2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001). CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A slight compression in magnetic field is detected starting at 2021-09-10T01:32Z and is subsequently followed by ICME features (notable increases in B-field values and large-scale B-field rotations).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-06T19:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-09T01:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "77.73", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17676/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=0.0, Lat.=7.0, Speed=537.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2021-09-06T04:21Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-09-09T01:35Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =18.1 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-08T04:17Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-09T05:45Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-09T00:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-07T06:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-08T19:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-30.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.53", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-09-06 04:21\n - Time at C2: 2021-09-05 21:36\n - Radial speed: 537.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 45 deg\n - Eruption location: N07W00\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 567.10 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2021-09-08 19:17 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.68 hours)\nKp 3.0 - 4.0" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-07T08:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-10T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.95", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-09-06T08:17Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 341\nLongitude (deg): W000\nLatitude (deg): N31\nHalf-angular width (deg): 52\n\nNotes: Filament eruption from Ex-2865 plage area in NE quadrant. Accompanied by dimming in AIA211 and EIT wave. This is a fit attempt to the shock seen heading below ecliptic plane as an arc during the UTC evening of 05 September, but no other ejecta visible. Wide cone angle implies this may well be the case. No pairs of images to triangulate to between St A and Lasco, very low confidence. May amalgamate with earlier CME given likely error in measurement, but kept as (larger) distinct arrival in available Enlil modelling.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-07T12:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-09T06:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.20", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 537.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 593.015\nAcceleration: -0.549131\nDuration in seconds: 290728.30\nDuration in days: 3.3649109\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.55 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 433.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/09/2021 Time: 06:21 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-07T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-08T22:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.03", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 537.0 km/sec\nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nu_r = 337.191\nAcceleration: 1.74708\nDuration in seconds: 263120.67\nDuration in days: 3.0453781\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.75 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 796.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 08/09/2021 Time: 22:41 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-07T15:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-10T03:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 24.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 24.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.12", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Tuesday, September 7, 2021 11:25 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) \nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-09-10T03:30:00\ntime_uncertainty: 24\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 4\nprobability_of_arrival: 15\n\n---\n\n:Issued: 2021 Sep 14 1627 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA CME was detectable in SOHO/LASCO C2 images during the night of Sept 5th/early\nmorning of Sept 6th. It is associated with a plage (or possibly an active region)\nthat currently rotates into Earth's view. Although there is a small chance that this CME will become geo-effective, it is unlikely that its arrival will be seen in the solar wind parameters. This is because a much brighter partial halo CME erupted a few hours earlier with a similar velocity and the two CMEs will most probably merge together.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-08T01:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-09T12:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 17.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 20.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 77.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.67", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-09-09T05:38Z and 2021-09-09T14:41Z (average arrival 2021-09-09T10:25Z) for 12% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2021-09-08T22:40Z and 2021-09-09T16:33Z (average arrival 2021-09-09T05:21Z) for 6% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-09-08T18:49Z and 2021-09-10T08:39Z (average arrival 2021-09-09T12:06Z) for 77% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 68% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-3 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090/20210905_213600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090/20210905_213600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090/20210905_213600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090/20210905_213600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090/20210905_213600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090/20210905_213600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090/20210905_213600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090/20210905_213600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-07_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090/Detailed_results_20210905_213600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX090.txt\n###" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-09T10:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 37.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.2, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-29179.40", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-09T06:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-29179.40", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-08-28T07:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-08-28T07:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-09-03T06:19Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source is a M4.7 class flare peaking at 2021-08-28T06:11Z from active region 12860 located at S28E00 at the time of the eruption. This eruption is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO/AIA wavelengths. An EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211 starting around 2021-08-28T06:00Z, propagating northward, followed by a post-eruptive arcade starting around 2021-08-28T07:20Z. A dimming region is visible above the brightening active region during the EUV wave. Some plasma material is also visible lifting off during this eruption shortly after the flare peaks. Arrival characterized by slow magnetic field amplitude rise (reaching only 6.5 nT), accompanied by density/temperature rise, followed by field component rotation, density/tempurature drop, and speed rise. Followed by a SSBC at 2021-09-03T12:12Z, which obscures the later part of the ICME arrival signature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-28T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-01T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-54.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "134.32", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-28T17:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-30.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "132.60", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17613/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-08-28T13:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=72.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=777.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2021-08-28T17:46Z\n2021-08-28T07:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-2.0, Lat.=-10.0, Speed=261.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2021-08-28T20:11Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-09-02T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-08-31T12:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210828_201100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-29T07:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-01T14:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-39.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "118.98", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 261.0 km/s \nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 309.563\nAcceleration: 0.489837\nDuration in seconds: 372948.05\nDuration in days: 4.3165284\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.49 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 492.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/09/2021 Time: 14:35 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-29T07:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-31T14:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-63.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "118.82", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 261.0 km/s \nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nu_r = 187.323\nAcceleration: 2.31063\nDuration in seconds: 287696.37\nDuration in days: 3.3298191\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 2.31 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 852.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/08/2021 Time: 14:54 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-30T02:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-01T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-36.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "99.42", "predictionNote" : "This model run arrival time estimate has been updated due to incorrect inclusion of another fast moving CME from the south-west in the initial run which has since been identified as non-geoeffective, and should not have been included in the initial run." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-30T13:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-01T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-53.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "88.82", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-08-28T16:19Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 325\nLongitude (deg): E10\nLatitude (deg): S3\nHalf-angular width (deg): 21\n\nNotes: Low confidence - very faint in imagery, limited imagery and slow.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-09-01T07:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-02T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.68", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Wednesday, September 1, 2021 3:38 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) \nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-09-02T10:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 4\nprobability_of_arrival: 40\n\n---\n\n:Issued: 2021 Aug 28 2052 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe M4.7 flare, which originated from NOAA AR 2860 and peaked at 06:11 UT on August\n28 was associated with the coronal dimming and EIT wave, the on disc signatures of\nthe CME. The associated CME (first time seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at\nabout 07:48 UT) had projected line of the sight speed of about 350 km/s and angular\nwidth of about 180 degrees.\nThis faint CME could arrive to Earth on 2nd September.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-01T11:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-42.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-29342.62", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-09-01T14:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-39.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-29342.62", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-08-24T13:25Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T11:42Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Faint CME seen in LASCO only. Source is a significant eruption from AR 2859 preceded by a B8.8 flare peaking at 2021-08-24T12:16Z. Dark material can be seen moving off the disk in SDO AIA 304 and 193 starting after 2021-08-24T12:03Z and a darkening with an EIT wave can be seen in EUVIA 195 starting after 2021-08-24T12:05Z. Arrival note: There is an increase of B total to over 16 nT, with a period of negative Bz reaching -13nT. There is no increase in solar wind speed at DSCOVR.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-26T15:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-28T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.75", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-08-26T15:57:25Z\n## Message ID: 20210826-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nS-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-08-24T13:25Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~454 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -36/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A (minor impact), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-08-26T04:52Z, STEREO A at 2021-05-27T18:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2021-08-26T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME might have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-28T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nPlease note that this analysis is very approximate as it is based on limited coronagraph data (LASCO only) and on the location of the eruption in SDO AIA and STEREO A EUVI imagery.\n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME 2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nThis CME event (2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001) is associated with B8.8 flare with ID 2021-08-24T12:03:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-08-24T12:16Z.\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-27T06:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "4.87", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-27T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-28T05:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "4.70", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 454.0 km/s \nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 507.774\nAcceleration: -0.217305\nDuration in seconds: 316087.04\nDuration in days: 3.6584148\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.22 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 439.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 28/08/2021 Time: 05:13 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-27T07:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T16:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "4.53", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 454.0 km/s \nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nu_r = 292.122\nAcceleration: 1.92907\nDuration in seconds: 270562.47\nDuration in days: 3.1315101\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.93 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 814.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 27/08/2021 Time: 16:34 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-27T10:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T23:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 68.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "1.63", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\nBased on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-08-27T07:55Z and 2021-08-27T15:21Z (average arrival 2021-08-27T11:58Z) for 35% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-08-27T16:21Z and 2021-08-28T05:41Z (average arrival 2021-08-27T23:39Z) for 68% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 86% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088/20210824_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088/20210824_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088/20210824_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088/20210824_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088/20210824_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088/20210824_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-24_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088/Detailed_results_20210824_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX088.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T23:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 68.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-29505.23", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T23:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 68.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-29505.23", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-08-23T06:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-08-23T06:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T00:25Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The CME is a partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is in the NW of STA COR2A. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center seen at 02:00Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. The L1 arrival signature seen by DSCOVR is characterized by a simultaneous jump in SW density, magnetic field and speed (from 360 to 420 km/s), as well as rotation of magnetic field components.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-23T19:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-26T20:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.55", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17561/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-08-23T06:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=393.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2021-08-23T14:36Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-08-26T20:25Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =15.1 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.7\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-08-25T05:05Z\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-08-27T00:00Z\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-08-27T02:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-24T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T03:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.42", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 393.0 km/s \nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 445.127\nAcceleration: 0.0159381\nDuration in seconds: 334281.32\nDuration in days: 3.8689967\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.02 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 450.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 27/08/2021 Time: 03:27 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-24T07:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-26T11:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.25", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 393.0 km/s \nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nu_r = 258.999\nAcceleration: 2.05596\nDuration in seconds: 275875.04\nDuration in days: 3.1929982\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 2.06 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 826.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/08/2021 Time: 11:13 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-24T07:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.22", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-08-23T15:57Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 375\nLongitude (deg): W005\nLatitude (deg): N16\nHalf-angular width (deg): 31\n\nNotes: CME originating from a large filament eruption in NE quadrant. Faint halo in Lasco C2 but obvious in STEREO A. High confidence in speed as confirmed with COR2 speed calculator\nSpace weather advisor: Jay Merrell" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-24T09:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-26T20:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.42", "predictionNote" : "Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-08-26T21:43Z and 2021-08-26T23:43Z (average arrival 2021-08-26T22:55Z) for 12% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-08-26T17:07Z and 2021-08-26T23:03Z (average arrival 2021-08-26T20:13Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-23_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087/20210823_063600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-23_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087/20210823_063600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-23_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087/20210823_063600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-23_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087/20210823_063600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-23_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087/20210823_063600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-23_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087/20210823_063600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-08-23_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087/Detailed_results_20210823_063600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX087.txt\n###" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-25T00:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.42", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-25T09:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-26T03:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.15", "predictionNote" : "Initial speed: 375 km/s\nSource location: W05N16\nSolar wind speed: 360 km/s\nduration time: 0.5 hrs (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-25T09:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T12:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.12", "predictionNote" : "Initial speed: 375 km/s\nSolar wind speed: 360 km/s\nduration time: 0.5 hrs (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-25T21:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.22", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2021 Aug 25 2112 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe CME associated with eruption of a large filament (stretching from about 30\ndegrees North to 30 degrees South) was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of\nview at 06:36 UT on August 24. The CME had velocity of about 450 km/s and the angular\nwidth of about\n100 degrees. Glancing blow associated with that CME is possible (on August 28), but\nnot very probable.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-08-26T05:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-26T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.98", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-27T00:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-29516.52", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-26T23:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-29516.52", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-07-29T00:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-07-29T00:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-08-02T09:03Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Partial halo SE in SOHO LASCO/C2, W in STEREO A COR2, both very faint. Associated with a filament eruption centered at S20W10 (near AR 12849), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-07-28T22:01Z. From Lan: There seems to be a CME encounter at about 9:10 – 19:00 UT on Aug 2, characterized by increased magnetic field strength, some magnetic field rotations (not smooth though), and low proton temperature. The quiet magnetic field on Aug 3 in the region after the “CME” might be due to the stretching of field lines.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-29T12:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-31T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "92.40", "predictionNote" : "2021-07-29T00:24Z CME:\nSIDC sent at 2021-07-29T12:39Z (Thursday, July 29, 2021 8:39 AM)\nexpected arrival time: 2021-07-31T22:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 2\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 3\nprobability_of_arrival: 20" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-29T14:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-02T11:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "90.88", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17426/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-07-29T00:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=264.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2021-07-29T12:16Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-08-02T11:30Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210729_121600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-30T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-02T08:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.05", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 264.0 km/s \nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 312.644\nAcceleration: 0.479535\nDuration in seconds: 373752.93\nDuration in days: 4.3258441\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.48 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 491.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 02/08/2021 Time: 08:13 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-30T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-01T08:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.05", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 264.0 km/s \nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nu_r = 188.952\nAcceleration: 2.30515\nDuration in seconds: 288384.22\nDuration in days: 3.3377804\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 2.31 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 853.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/08/2021 Time: 08:30 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-01T18:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-30107.88", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-08-01T20:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-30107.88", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-07-22T14:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-07-22T14:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-07-25T18:50Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Visible in the west in SOHO LASCO/C2, STEREO A COR2. May be associated with an eruption from AR 12848 (N20E08), visible in SDO AIA 304/193/171 beginning 2021-07-22T12:10Z, followed by EUV wave indicating a more southwestward ejection. Arrival indicated by weak but sudden increase in field amplitude, accompanied by speed increase and field component rotation. Preceded by brief pileup and temperature increase. Indicates a far flank arrival with flux rope only. This is a weak CME arrival, perhaps combined with a weak HSS arrival, with no candidate CH other than the patchy equatorial bit around W50.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-24T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-26T13:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.83", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 364.0 km/s \nThe EAM version you are running is: v2\nu_r = 415.344\nAcceleration: 0.123666\nDuration in seconds: 344550.47\nDuration in days: 3.9878526\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.12 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 458.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/07/2021 Time: 13:42 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-24T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-25T19:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.83", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 364.0 km/s \nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nu_r = 243.252\nAcceleration: 2.11425\nDuration in seconds: 279351.14\nDuration in days: 3.2332308\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 2.11 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 833.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/07/2021 Time: 19:35 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-24T15:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-26T12:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.53", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17380/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-07-22T14:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=24.0, Lat.=-1.0, Speed=364.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2021-07-22T22:33Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-07-26T12:30Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nParker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-07-24T13:22Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210722_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-26T07:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-30290.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-26T12:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-30290.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-07-20T16:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-07-20T16:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-07-25T06:22Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Eruption associated with a B5.4 flare from AR2846. Arrival is a very weak signature, no real shock, only a gentle rise in Btotal accompanied by Bx-Bz field rotation. Indicates a far flank arrival with flux rope only.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-21T18:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-23T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-37.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "83.87", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-07-21T18:30:29Z\n## Message ID: 20210721-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-07-20T16:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~971 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -43/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-07-20T16:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2021-07-22T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-07-23T17:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-07-20T16:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210720_200100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210720_200100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210720_200100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210720_200100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210720_200100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210720_200100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-07-20T16:48:00-CME-001) is associated with B5.4 flare with ID 2021-07-20T16:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-07-20T16:33Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-22T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-22T21:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-57.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.37", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 971.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 1038.73\nAcceleration: -2.55571\nDuration in seconds: 188636.04\nDuration in days: 2.1832875\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.56 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 556.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 22/07/2021 Time: 21:11 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-22T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-23T09:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-44.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.37", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 971.0 km/s \nThe EAM version you are running is: v3\nu_r = 572.853\nAcceleration: 0.620077\nDuration in seconds: 233230.70\nDuration in days: 2.6994294\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.62 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 717.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/07/2021 Time: 09:35 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-23T07:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-46.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-30302.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-23T09:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-44.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-30302.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-07-10T13:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-07-10T13:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-07-14T10:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "May be associated with a filament eruption near S30E25, faintly visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2021-07-10T09:21Z and in STEREO A EUVI 304 between 2021-07-10T08:15Z and 2021-07-10T10:15Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-10T18:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-14T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "87.47", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17269/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-07-10T13:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=375.0, HalfAngle=14.0, Time21.5=2021-07-10T21:00Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-07-14T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210710_210000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-12T00:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-14T12:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.00", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 375.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 426.641\nAcceleration: 0.0830435\nDuration in seconds: 341540.81\nDuration in days: 3.9530187\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.08 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 455.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 14/07/2021 Time: 12:28 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-07-12T00:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-13T18:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.00", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 375.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 249.225\nAcceleration: 2.09229\nDuration in seconds: 278509.90\nDuration in days: 3.2234942\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 2.09 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 831.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/07/2021 Time: 18:57 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-14T04:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-30562.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-14T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-30562.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-06-27T02:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-06-27T02:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-07-01T02:30Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME observed leaving the western hemisphere, evidenced initially by coronal hole dimming on SDO AIA193. Analysis suggests a possible Earth-directed component, observed from around 27/0200Z quite clearly on SOHO C2/C3 and Stereo A COR2. Note from T. Nieves-Chincilla and L. Jian on CME arrival signature at L1: a clear flux rope on 07-01 from ~2:30 to ~14:15 with North polarity and some erosion at the front. This flux rope is embedded within the fast wind part of a CIR.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-06-28T12:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-01T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.15", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Monday, June 28, 2021 8:21 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) \nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-07-01T20:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 2\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 4\nprobability_of_arrival: 15\n\n---\n\n:Issued: 2021 Jul 07 1030 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nWEEK 1070 from 2021 Jun 28\nSOLAR ACTIVITY\n---------------\nThe main flaring events of the period were featured by a rapidly emerging region\n(NOAA 2838) on July 3. The region produced three M flares and an X1.5 flare peaking\nat 14:29UT July 3. The region emerged close to the limb and hence could not be\nanalysed in detail while it rotated off the disc by the end of the week.\nThis was the first X flare since September 2017 and the first X flare of the new\ncycle.\nAt the start of the week there were two beta regions: NOAA region 2835 and a new\nregion 2836 emerging to the South-West of 2835. Especially 2835 grew over the week\nand developed mixed magnetic fields in the intermediate region. It had significant\nflaring potential throughout the week, but only produced a number of C flares, the\nstrongest of which a C3.6 flare peaking at 18:15UT on June 30.\nDuring the week, another region emerged in the North (NOAA region 2837) but by the\nend of the week both NOAA 2836 and 2837 were in decay.\n\nA number of filament eruptions and CMEs have been observed throughout the week of\nwhich 2 were assessed to possibly have an Earth directed component.\nA Westward CME is seen in SoHO/LASCO coronagraph data from around 4UT June 27\nonwards. Its angular width is around 110 degrees. The same CME is visible from STEREO\nA COR 2 data, as directly Westward from STEREO A perspective. It is most likely\nassociated to a dimming that can be seen just to the West of the disc center between\n1-5UT June 27. As a consequence the CME was estimated to be directed only just to the\nWest of the Sun-Earth line and a glancing blow could not be excluded. The CME was\nmeasured to have a rather low speed of between 300-350 km/s and a possible arrival\nwas expected around the afternoon of July 1.\nA dimming is seen in SDO AIA imagery at around 5:16UT June 29. It originates from\naround N15E10 which is the SouthEastern area of the large plage region in the\nNorthern hemisphere. Coronagraph data from STEREO A display a CME towards the West\nfrom 11:53UT onwards. SoHO/LASCO coronagraph data are not so clear and the signature\nis faint. The most clear part is visible from around 6:24UT towards the East. The CME\ndirection and speed were thus hard to establish based on the available coronagraph\ndata. Combined with the location of the source region on disc we estimated that an\narrival of an associated CME was not excluded and could occur around noon July 3,\nalthough confidence was low on that forecast.\nAll other CMEs were assessed to not be Earth directed.\n\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux showed a slight enhancement following the X\nflare, but remained below 1 pfu and thus well below the 10 pfu eventthreshold.\n\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu event threshold. The 24h\nelectron fluence was at normal levels.\nGEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY\n---------------------\nSolar wind conditions were in a nominal slow Solar wind regime until 2:47UT June 30\nwhen a small fast forward shock occurred which was then followed by a build up of the\nmagnetic field strength and later in the day the increase of Solar wind speed to over\n500 km/s. This was the anticipated arrival of the high speed stream from a positive\npolarity coronal hole transiting central meridian on June 27. The magnetic field\nreached a strength of 13nT with some periods of strong negative values for the Bz\ncomponent down to -10nT. Some features of magnetic field rotation can be identified\nbut it is hard to make any clear identification of the possible arrival of the June\n27 CME.\nSolar wind speed was only briefly over 500 km/s but saw a somewhat unexpected renewed\nincrease above 500km/s around midnight July 2 to 3. At that time the phi angle had\nalso switched into the towards section for a while.\nAfterwards, Solar wind speed declined again to nominal slow Solar wind conditions and\nthere was no sign of a possible arrival of the June 29 CME.\n\nGeomagnetic conditions became active (K=4) for some periods associated to the high\nspeed stream arrival, but were otherwise quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-2, K Dourbes\n0-3).\n---------------------------------------------------------------------------\nDAILY INDICES\nDATE RC EISN 10CM Ak BKG M X\n2021 Jun 28 /// 046 089 004 B1.8 0 0 \n2021 Jun 29 054 057 093 009 B1.5 0 0 \n2021 Jun 30 /// 056 094 017 B1.7 0 0 \n2021 Jul 01 055 053 094 008 B1.5 0 0 \n2021 Jul 02 052 059 095 007 B1.5 0 0 \n2021 Jul 03 /// 060 094 004 B3.0 2 1 \n2021 Jul 04 /// 050 091 004 B2.4 1 0 \n---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n# RC : Sunspot index (Wolf Number) from Catania Observatory (Italy)\n# EISN : Estimated International Sunspot Number\n# 10cm : 10.7 cm radioflux (DRAO, Canada)\n# Ak : Ak Index Wingst (Germany)\n# BKG : Background GOES X-ray level (NOAA, USA)\n# M,X : Number of X-ray flares in M and X class, see below (NOAA, USA)\n---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \n03 0704 0717 0722 N23W78 M2.7 SF ///2838 \n\n03 1418 1429 1434 N24W81 X1.5 SN ///2838 III/3II/1 \n\n03 1659 1703 1714 N24W82 M1.0 SF ///2838 \n\n04 0501 0509 0515 N00W00 M1.5 SF ///2838 \n\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-06-28T12:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-01T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.92", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 27/1717 UTC\nRadial velocity (km/s): 354 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 32W\nLatitude (deg): 1S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 32 deg\n\nNotes: Stealthy CME observed leaving the western hemisphere, with a possible Earth-directed component. First observed as an area of dimming on the SDO AIA193 image, then on SOHO C2/C3 and Stereo A COR2. Quite a good fit on the SWPC CAT tool. Some of the Met Office Ensemble members have an Earth arrival on the 1st July, but low confidence in timing and whether it will be detectable, given it is close to the background solar winds. \nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC forecasters" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-01T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 22.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-30882.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-07-01T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 22.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-30882.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-06-15T04:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-06-15T04:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-06-20T11:21Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The arrival for this CME is very uncertain. There are weak signatures of ICMEs around this time, but it looks like it could be more than one.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-06-16T18:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-06-20T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "89.02", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-06-15T20:11Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 311 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 30E\nLatitude (deg): 3S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 30 deg \n\nNotes: This CME was associated with a filament eruption near the centre-southeast disc. Very faint in SOHO C2/C3, and Stereo A COR2 diff images. The likelihood is that it will pass behind Earth's orbit (~70%), with a low chance (~30%) of being detected at Earth. With the speed close to background, it may only be the magnetic cloud that is observed, if at all, with Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity.\nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC advisors" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-06-19T00:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-06-19T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.10", "predictionNote" : "Latitude: 01 S\nLongitude: 22 E\nHalf cone angle: 42 degrees\nSpeed: 148 km/s\nArrival time at 21.5 Sr = 0634 UT 16/06/2021" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-06-19T23:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31137.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-06-19T23:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31137.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-05-28T23:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-06-02T12:20Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The EUV wave seen in SDO 193 is very wide and directed to the center disk. The CME is associated with a C9.4 class flare from AR 2824.\nThe CME was first only visible in STA COR2A at 23:23Z, but since the original CME entry the C2 and C3 frames have come in and the CME is first seen in C2 at 23:12Z. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is embedded within a CIR. From Lan Jian: \"The parameter changes at the shock soon after 12 UT on June 2 are more than what is expected for a SIR shock, and there are some field rotations after that\" possibly indicative of a \"CIR+ICME event.\"", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-29T12:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-31T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-47.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "95.77", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Saturday, May 29, 2021 8:34 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) \nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-05-31T13:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 4\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 15\n\n:Issued: 2021 May 31 1241 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nWEEK 1065 from 2021 May 24\nSOLAR ACTIVITY\n---------------\nBeta-gamma regions NOAA 2824 and 2826 produced 15 C flares from May 26 to 29. The\nGOES X-ray flux background varied between B1 level at the start and the end of the\nweek and up to B4 level in the middle of the week. The brightest flare was a C9.4\nflare released by region 2824, which peaked at 23:13 UT on May 28. This flare was\nassociated with a dimming detected by Solar Demon and a CME towards the West first\nobserved in LASCO C2 imagery at 23:12 UT, with an estimated speed around 840 km/s and\na half cone angle of about 50 degrees. A proton event started around 0h UT on May 29,\nrelated to the C9.4 flare and associated CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux\nreached a maximum of about 16 pfu around 03:20 UT, and proton flux levels went below\nthe 10 pfu threshold around 05:50 UT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the\ngreater than 2 MeV electron fluence were near or above the moderate level threshold\nfrom May 24 to 26." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-29T12:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-06-01T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-36.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "95.58", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/0318 Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 910 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 60W\nLatitude (deg): 5S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 46\n\nNotes: CME seen this morning in Stereo A COR2 and SOHO Lasco C2/C3 with wide angle above 90 degrees. Most of the CME will miss Earth, but there is a chance (~30%) of a detectable shock wave late on the 31st, or early on the 1st June +/- 12 hrs. It was not easy to fit the longitude, with variation between 50 and 65 degrees W, this led to a range of speeds between 650 and 950 km/s. The Type II radio burst speed of 2087 km/s was considered far too fast. \nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC forecasters" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-29T14:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-06-01T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-30.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "93.42", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-29T14:29:15Z\n## Message ID: 20210529-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-28T23:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~824 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 62/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-05-30T15:00Z and STEREO B at 2021-05-31T18:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-06-01T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210529_031600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210529_031600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210529_031600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210529_031600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C9.4 flare with ID 2021-05-28T22:19:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-28T23:13Z and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2021-05-29T03:00:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20210529-AL-001 and 20210529-AL-002).\n\nIn the notes in notification 20210529-AL-002 this CME was referred to as CME with ID 2021-05-28T23:23:00-CME-001 due to limited coronagraph images available at the time. The CME ID has been updated to 2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001 to reflect the imagery that has since come in.\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-29T18:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-31T08:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-51.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "90.33", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 824.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 887.764\nAcceleration: -1.82501\nDuration in seconds: 217862.30\nDuration in days: 2.5215544\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.83 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 538.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/05/2021 Time: 08:26 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-29T18:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-31T17:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-42.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "90.08", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 824.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 493.032\nAcceleration: 1.03478\nDuration in seconds: 242652.19\nDuration in days: 2.8084744\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.03 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 724.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/05/2021 Time: 17:32 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-31T18:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 22.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-41.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31568.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-31T17:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 22.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-42.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31568.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-05-23T17:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-05-27T05:12Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Associated with eruption from AR 2824 (N21E04) at 2021-05-23T17:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 193/171/304. The eruption's EUV signature shows material deflected westward. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T20:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T07:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.92", "predictionNote" : "Note: This CME was simulated together with CMEs 2021-05-23T09:53Z and 2021-05-23T11:38Z, and they merge together in the arrival.\n\n---\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-24T20:17:28Z\n## Message ID: 20210524-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with ID(s) 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210523-AL-002) and newly analyzed CME with ID 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-05-25T04:52Z and STEREO B at 2021-05-26T07:37Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-26T07:37Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2021-05-23T09:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~699 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2021-05-23T11:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~806 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 25/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001\n\n\n3: Start time of the event: 2021-05-23T17:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~703 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 27/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001) is associated with a C2.4 flare with ID 2021-05-23T09:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T09:22Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001) is associated with an M1.1 flare with ID 2021-05-23T11:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T11:08Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001) is associated with a C2.2 flare with ID 2021-05-23T17:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T17:05Z.\n\nThe source of these CME and flare events is active region 12824, currently visible near N19W11 in the available EUV imagery from SDO.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-25T18:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T12:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.8, "confidenceInPercentage" : 54.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.98", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001, and 2021-05-24T01:25:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210524-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2021-05-26T07:56Z and 2021-05-26T17:10Z (average arrival 2021-05-26T12:21Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the combined leading edge of the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-05-26T09:25Z and 2021-05-26T17:16Z (average arrival 2021-05-26T12:30Z) for 54% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 99% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/Detailed_results_20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-25T22:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T14:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.20", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 703.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 763.497\nAcceleration: -1.26279\nDuration in seconds: 246757.38\nDuration in days: 2.8559881\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.26 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 451.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/05/2021 Time: 14:10 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-25T22:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T15:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.20", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 703.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 427.329\nAcceleration: 1.35078\nDuration in seconds: 251187.01\nDuration in days: 2.9072571\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.35 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 766.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/05/2021 Time: 15:24 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T12:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 54.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31719.73", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T13:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 54.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31719.73", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-05-23T11:38Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-05-27T05:12Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E7) at 11:03Z associated with an M1.1 flare peaked at 11:26Z. A large amount of material moving quickly to the west of the AR in AIA 193/304/171 after the eruption. This CME appears faster than the 2021-05-23T09:53Z CME, and caught up to it in the LASCO C2 imagery, and then appeared as one CME in the C3 imagery. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-23T15:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "86.05", "predictionNote" : "This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-05-26T03:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 4\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 70\n\n:Issued: 2021 May 24 1642 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nWEEK 1064 from 2021 May 17\nSOLAR ACTIVITY\n---------------\nThe week started with only one active region visible, NOAA AR 2822 (Catania 93, alpha\nmagnetic field configuration), it did not produce any significant flares. On May 17\nNOAA AR 2824 rotated over the west limb (Catania 96, beta magnetic field\nconfiguration), already producing C-class flares. After one day it decayed to alpha\nmagnetic field configuration and produced only B-class flares. This region then\nincreased in complexity, its photospheric magnetic field was classified as beta gamma\nby May 22, it produced then three M-class flares: M1.1 peaking at 17:11 UT on May 22,\nM1.4 flare peaking at 21:36 UT on 22 May, M1.1 peaking at 11:08 UT on May 23.Three\n(partially) Earth directed CMEs erupted on 22 May. Two of them are associated with\nM-class flares. The first one starting at 09:12 UT (LASCO C2) with 300 km/s and about\n90 degrees angular width, expected arrival at 23 UT on 26 May. The second one at\n16:23 UT (COR2A), with a speed of 460 km/s and an expected arrival time at 02 UT on\n26 May. The last one started at 22:00 UT (COR2A), with a speed of 629 km/s, and\nexpected to arrive at 13 UT on 25 May. The last two were faint in LASCO and better\nvisible in COR2. The speed of the CMEs increased from the first to the third, so they\nwill encounter and interact on their way to the Earth. On 23 May one more (partially)\nEarth directed CME was observed, at 11:00 UT on COR2A, expected on 26 May at 03 UT,\nwith speed 680 km/s." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-23T16:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : -46, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2021-05-25T13:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-50.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.70", "predictionNote" : ": Product: Dst_alert_status\n: Issued: 23-May-2021 15:00:01 UTC\n: JDIssued: 2459358.12502\n: Number_of_Data_Records: 1\n: Missing_data: 9999\n: Source: SET Stream B (Anemomilos) algorithm\n: version: 3.48\n# Prepared by Space Environment Technologies/Space Weather Division\n# Contact: spacenvironment@spacenvironment.net\n# http://www.spacewx.com\n#\n# Forecast_summary_metadata:\n# AlertIssued is the alert issue time\n# PredictStart is the event predicted start time\n# PredictPeak is the event predicted peak time\n# EL is the wait time in minutes before issuing another alert\n# GX is the alert level on NOAA G scale ranging from G0 to G5\n# G4, G5: WARNING: is issued when a hazardous event is occurring, \n# is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring. \n# A warning is used for very active conditions posing a threat \n# to life or property.\n# G3: ADVISORY: is issued in active to very active conditions \n# that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution \n# is not exercised, it could lead to situations that may threaten \n# life and/or property.\n# G2: WATCH: is issued when the risk of a hazardous event has increased \n# significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is \n# still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead-time in \n# active conditions so that those who need to set their plans in \n# motion can do so.\n# G1: ALERT: is issued when an event threshold is crossed. It contains \n# information that is available at the time of issue.\n# G0: MONITORING: is issued when the geomagnetic conditions are being \n# actively monitored with information that is available at the \n# time of issue.\n# DST is the predicted peak (deepest perturbation) of event in nT\n# Pr is the % probability of occurrence of event at epoch\n# Sr is the source of forecast (daily Probability (GP or SP), Solar Event (SO), or None (NN))\n# Vel is the velocity of the ejecta leaving the solar surface in km/sec\n# Status of the combined predicted Dst events relative to NOAA G-scale\n# AC = all clear (>-10 nT) (G0 monitoring)\n# UN = unsettled (-33 to -10 nT) (G1 alert)\n# SE = small event predicted (-33 to -48 nT) (G2 watch)\n# ME = medium event predicted (-48 to -198 nT) (G3 advisory)\n# LE = large event predicted (-198 to -350 nT) (G4 warning)\n# LX = very large event predicted (-350 to -400 nT) (G5 warning)\n# CID is the Class ID for the event composed of a letter flare class and Xhf magnitude\n# C = small flare class\n# M = medium flare class\n# X = large flare class\n# 0-300 = Xhf magnitude of event\n# Bz is the estimated dominant Bz direction at Earth (N = northward, S = southward)\n#\n# AlertIssued PredictStart PredictPeak EL GX DST Pr Sr Vel Status CID Bz\n 202105231500 202105250300 202105251300 60 G2 -046 02 NN 750 SE C015 S" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-23T19:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.95", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-23T19:15:41Z\n## Message ID: 20210523-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.\n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-23T09:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~659 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 33/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.\n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-23T11:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~743 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 30/7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-05-25T05:11Z and STEREO B at 2021-05-26T11:19Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-26T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_150900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_150900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_150900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_150900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001) is associated with C2.4 flare with ID 2021-05-23T09:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T09:22Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.1 flare with ID 2021-05-23T11:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T11:00Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T15:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T23:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.03", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-23 15:45\n - Time at C2: 2021-05-23 11:38\n - Radial speed: 806.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 31 deg\n - Eruption location: N08W25\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 647.80 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2021-05-25 23:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 60.33 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T16:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T01:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.53", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 806.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 869.278\nAcceleration: -1.73913\nDuration in seconds: 221632.07\nDuration in days: 2.5651860\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.74 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 483.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/05/2021 Time: 01:11 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T16:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T07:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.45", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 806.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 483.258\nAcceleration: 1.08323\nDuration in seconds: 243712.90\nDuration in days: 2.8207512\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.08 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 747.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/05/2021 Time: 07:19 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T20:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T07:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.92", "predictionNote" : "Note: This CME was simulated together with CMEs 2021-05-23T09:53Z and 2021-05-23T17:38Z, and they merge together in the arrival.\n\n---\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-24T20:17:28Z\n## Message ID: 20210524-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with ID(s) 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210523-AL-002) and newly analyzed CME with ID 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-05-25T04:52Z and STEREO B at 2021-05-26T07:37Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-26T07:37Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2021-05-23T09:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~699 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2021-05-23T11:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~806 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 25/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001\n\n\n3: Start time of the event: 2021-05-23T17:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~703 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 27/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001) is associated with a C2.4 flare with ID 2021-05-23T09:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T09:22Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001) is associated with an M1.1 flare with ID 2021-05-23T11:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T11:08Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001) is associated with a C2.2 flare with ID 2021-05-23T17:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T17:05Z.\n\nThe source of these CME and flare events is active region 12824, currently visible near N19W11 in the available EUV imagery from SDO.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-25T18:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T12:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.8, "confidenceInPercentage" : 54.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.98", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001, and 2021-05-24T01:25:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210524-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2021-05-26T07:56Z and 2021-05-26T17:10Z (average arrival 2021-05-26T12:21Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the combined leading edge of the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-05-26T09:25Z and 2021-05-26T17:16Z (average arrival 2021-05-26T12:30Z) for 54% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 99% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/Detailed_results_20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-25T21:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.45", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 681\nLongitude (deg): 24W\nLatitude (deg): 1N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 32\n\nNotes: Likely to combine with previous CMEs \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T03:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 58.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.71429, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31719.73", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 54.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31719.73", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-05-23T09:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-05-27T05:12Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E8) associated with a C2.4 flare seen best in AIA 304 with some dark material to W of the AR after brightening beginning 09:19Z. A smaller flare and dark material from the same region 08:00Z. The source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E8) associated with a C2.4 flare seen best in AIA 304 with some dark material to W of the AR after brightening beginning 09:19Z. A smaller flare and dark material from the same region 08:00Z. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-23T19:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.95", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-23T19:15:41Z\n## Message ID: 20210523-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.\n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-23T09:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~659 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 33/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.\n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-23T11:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~743 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 30/7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-05-25T05:11Z and STEREO B at 2021-05-26T11:19Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-26T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_150900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_150900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_150900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_150900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001) is associated with C2.4 flare with ID 2021-05-23T09:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T09:22Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.1 flare with ID 2021-05-23T11:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T11:00Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T16:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T09:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.78", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 660.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 719.336\nAcceleration: -1.07153\nDuration in seconds: 258040.59\nDuration in days: 2.9865809\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.07 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 442.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/05/2021 Time: 09:33 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T16:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T08:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.62", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 660.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 403.980\nAcceleration: 1.45757\nDuration in seconds: 254406.42\nDuration in days: 2.9445188\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.46 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 774.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/05/2021 Time: 08:33 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T18:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T01:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-27.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.20", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-23 14:34\n - Time at C2: 2021-05-23 09:53\n - Radial speed: 699.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 26 deg\n - Eruption location: N05W22\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 615.70 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2021-05-26 01:36 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.72 hours)\nKp 4.0-5.0" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T20:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T07:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.92", "predictionNote" : "Note: This CME was simulated together with CMEs 2021-05-23T11:38Z and 2021-05-23T17:38Z, and they merge together in the arrival.\n\n---\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-24T20:17:28Z\n## Message ID: 20210524-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with ID(s) 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210523-AL-002) and newly analyzed CME with ID 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-05-25T04:52Z and STEREO B at 2021-05-26T07:37Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-26T07:37Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2021-05-23T09:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~699 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2021-05-23T11:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~806 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 25/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001\n\n\n3: Start time of the event: 2021-05-23T17:38Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~703 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 27/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001) is associated with a C2.4 flare with ID 2021-05-23T09:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T09:22Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001) is associated with an M1.1 flare with ID 2021-05-23T11:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T11:08Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001) is associated with a C2.2 flare with ID 2021-05-23T17:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T17:05Z.\n\nThe source of these CME and flare events is active region 12824, currently visible near N19W11 in the available EUV imagery from SDO.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-25T18:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T12:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.8, "confidenceInPercentage" : 54.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.98", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001, and 2021-05-24T01:25:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210524-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2021-05-26T07:56Z and 2021-05-26T17:10Z (average arrival 2021-05-26T12:21Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the combined leading edge of the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-05-26T09:25Z and 2021-05-26T17:16Z (average arrival 2021-05-26T12:30Z) for 54% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 99% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-25_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081/Detailed_results_20210523_095300_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX081.txt\n###\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T08:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 54.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31719.73", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T09:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 54.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31719.73", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-05-22T22:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T11:37Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source of this CME is a large eruption from AR 2824 (N20E15) at 21:31Z, visible in SDO AIA imagery as well as STA EUVI 195. This eruption is associated with an M1.4 flare. ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-23T06:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-22.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.77", "predictionNote" : "This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-05-25T13:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 4\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 70\n\n:Issued: 2021 May 24 1642 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nWEEK 1064 from 2021 May 17\nSOLAR ACTIVITY\n---------------\nThe week started with only one active region visible, NOAA AR 2822 (Catania 93, alpha\nmagnetic field configuration), it did not produce any significant flares. On May 17\nNOAA AR 2824 rotated over the west limb (Catania 96, beta magnetic field\nconfiguration), already producing C-class flares. After one day it decayed to alpha\nmagnetic field configuration and produced only B-class flares. This region then\nincreased in complexity, its photospheric magnetic field was classified as beta gamma\nby May 22, it produced then three M-class flares: M1.1 peaking at 17:11 UT on May 22,\nM1.4 flare peaking at 21:36 UT on 22 May, M1.1 peaking at 11:08 UT on May 23.Three\n(partially) Earth directed CMEs erupted on 22 May. Two of them are associated with\nM-class flares. The first one starting at 09:12 UT (LASCO C2) with 300 km/s and about\n90 degrees angular width, expected arrival at 23 UT on 26 May. The second one at\n16:23 UT (COR2A), with a speed of 460 km/s and an expected arrival time at 02 UT on\n26 May. The last one started at 22:00 UT (COR2A), with a speed of 629 km/s, and\nexpected to arrive at 13 UT on 25 May. The last two were faint in LASCO and better\nvisible in COR2. The speed of the CMEs increased from the first to the third, so they\nwill encounter and interact on their way to the Earth. On 23 May one more (partially)\nEarth directed CME was observed, at 11:00 UT on COR2A, expected on 26 May at 03 UT,\nwith speed 680 km/s." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-23T17:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.58", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (STEREO B, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-23T17:02:38Z\n## Message ID: 20210523-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO (See previous notification 20210522-AL-003). \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-22T09:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~500 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-22T16:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~611 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -17/15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001\n\n3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-22T22:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~670 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 25/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO B, Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CMEs will reach STEREO B at 2021-05-26T03:31Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2021-05-24T20:00Z, and STEREO A at 2021-05-26T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-25T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001, 2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001, 2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.0 flare with ID 2021-05-22T06:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-22T06:17Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001) is associated with C3.2 flare with ID 2021-05-22T15:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-22T15:35Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.4 flare with ID 2021-05-22T21:30:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-22T21:36Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T15:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T14:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.62", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-23 03:04\n - Time at C2: 2021-05-22 22:09\n - Radial speed: 670.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 26 deg\n - Eruption location: N13W25\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 607.00 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2021-05-25 14:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.72 hours)\n\nKP: 4.0 - 5.0" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T16:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T21:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.28", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 670.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 729.606\nAcceleration: -1.11561\nDuration in seconds: 255340.83\nDuration in days: 2.9553337\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.12 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 444.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/05/2021 Time: 21:04 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T16:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T20:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.20", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 670.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 409.410\nAcceleration: 1.43299\nDuration in seconds: 253630.36\nDuration in days: 2.9355366\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.43 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 772.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/05/2021 Time: 20:36 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T23:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T14:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.8, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 98.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.47", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001, 2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001, and 2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210523-AL-001).Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edges of the CMEs will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-05-25T17:15Z and 2021-05-25T23:05Z (average arrival 2021-05-25T20:22Z) for 31% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2021-05-25T20:48Z and 2021-05-26T05:44Z (average arrival 2021-05-26T01:51Z) for 97% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-05-25T09:19Z and 2021-05-25T22:21Z (average arrival 2021-05-25T14:04Z) for 97% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 88% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/Detailed_results_20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080.txt\n###" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-25T21:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.95", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 545\nLongitude (deg): 15W\nLatitude (deg): 3N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 32\n\nNotes:\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T19:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 82.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.4, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.8, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31737.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31737.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-05-22T16:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T11:37Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Ejected material is seen in SDO AIA 193 and 304 after 05-22T15:21Z mostly to the West from AR 2824. ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-22T21:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "86.18", "predictionNote" : "This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-05-26T02:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 4\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 70\n\n:Issued: 2021 May 24 1642 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nWEEK 1064 from 2021 May 17\nSOLAR ACTIVITY\n---------------\nThe week started with only one active region visible, NOAA AR 2822 (Catania 93, alpha\nmagnetic field configuration), it did not produce any significant flares. On May 17\nNOAA AR 2824 rotated over the west limb (Catania 96, beta magnetic field\nconfiguration), already producing C-class flares. After one day it decayed to alpha\nmagnetic field configuration and produced only B-class flares. This region then\nincreased in complexity, its photospheric magnetic field was classified as beta gamma\nby May 22, it produced then three M-class flares: M1.1 peaking at 17:11 UT on May 22,\nM1.4 flare peaking at 21:36 UT on 22 May, M1.1 peaking at 11:08 UT on May 23.Three\n(partially) Earth directed CMEs erupted on 22 May. Two of them are associated with\nM-class flares. The first one starting at 09:12 UT (LASCO C2) with 300 km/s and about\n90 degrees angular width, expected arrival at 23 UT on 26 May. The second one at\n16:23 UT (COR2A), with a speed of 460 km/s and an expected arrival time at 02 UT on\n26 May. The last one started at 22:00 UT (COR2A), with a speed of 629 km/s, and\nexpected to arrive at 13 UT on 25 May. The last two were faint in LASCO and better\nvisible in COR2. The speed of the CMEs increased from the first to the third, so they\nwill encounter and interact on their way to the Earth. On 23 May one more (partially)\nEarth directed CME was observed, at 11:00 UT on COR2A, expected on 26 May at 03 UT,\nwith speed 680 km/s." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-23T17:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.58", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (STEREO B, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-23T17:02:38Z\n## Message ID: 20210523-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO (See previous notification 20210522-AL-003). \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-22T09:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~500 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-22T16:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~611 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -17/15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001\n\n3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-22T22:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~670 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 25/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO B, Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CMEs will reach STEREO B at 2021-05-26T03:31Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2021-05-24T20:00Z, and STEREO A at 2021-05-26T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-25T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001, 2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001, 2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.0 flare with ID 2021-05-22T06:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-22T06:17Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001) is associated with C3.2 flare with ID 2021-05-22T15:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-22T15:35Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.4 flare with ID 2021-05-22T21:30:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-22T21:36Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T19:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.62", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 610.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 667.986\nAcceleration: -0.854756\nDuration in seconds: 271654.69\nDuration in days: 3.1441515\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.85 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 435.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/05/2021 Time: 19:36 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T16:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T15:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.37", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 610.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 376.830\nAcceleration: 1.57811\nDuration in seconds: 258226.83\nDuration in days: 2.9887364\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.58 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 784.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/05/2021 Time: 15:52 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T23:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T14:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.8, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 98.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.47", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001, 2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001, and 2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210523-AL-001).Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edges of the CMEs will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-05-25T17:15Z and 2021-05-25T23:05Z (average arrival 2021-05-25T20:22Z) for 31% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2021-05-25T20:48Z and 2021-05-26T05:44Z (average arrival 2021-05-26T01:51Z) for 97% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-05-25T09:19Z and 2021-05-25T22:21Z (average arrival 2021-05-25T14:04Z) for 97% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 88% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/Detailed_results_20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080.txt\n###" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T19:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 84.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31737.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T19:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 84.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31737.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-05-22T09:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T11:37Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Source is eruption from AR 2824 at 06:15Z, with dimming towards the S of the AR. Material moving after 06:45Z to the W from AR. In STA Cor2 it is seen as two CMEs, NW one at 08:23 and SW one at 09:38 (the later might be associated with a C-class flare at 06:45Z). The CMEs are seen as one in SOHO/LASCO C2/C3. CME ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-22T15:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T23:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "91.72", "predictionNote" : "This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-05-26T23:27:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 5\nprobability_of_arrival: 40\n\n:Issued: 2021 May 24 1642 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nWEEK 1064 from 2021 May 17\nSOLAR ACTIVITY\n---------------\nThe week started with only one active region visible, NOAA AR 2822 (Catania 93, alpha\nmagnetic field configuration), it did not produce any significant flares. On May 17\nNOAA AR 2824 rotated over the west limb (Catania 96, beta magnetic field\nconfiguration), already producing C-class flares. After one day it decayed to alpha\nmagnetic field configuration and produced only B-class flares. This region then\nincreased in complexity, its photospheric magnetic field was classified as beta gamma\nby May 22, it produced then three M-class flares: M1.1 peaking at 17:11 UT on May 22,\nM1.4 flare peaking at 21:36 UT on 22 May, M1.1 peaking at 11:08 UT on May 23.Three\n(partially) Earth directed CMEs erupted on 22 May. Two of them are associated with\nM-class flares. The first one starting at 09:12 UT (LASCO C2) with 300 km/s and about\n90 degrees angular width, expected arrival at 23 UT on 26 May. The second one at\n16:23 UT (COR2A), with a speed of 460 km/s and an expected arrival time at 02 UT on\n26 May. The last one started at 22:00 UT (COR2A), with a speed of 629 km/s, and\nexpected to arrive at 13 UT on 25 May. The last two were faint in LASCO and better\nvisible in COR2. The speed of the CMEs increased from the first to the third, so they\nwill encounter and interact on their way to the Earth. On 23 May one more (partially)\nEarth directed CME was observed, at 11:00 UT on COR2A, expected on 26 May at 03 UT,\nwith speed 680 km/s." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-22T23:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "83.63", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-22T23:59:24Z\n## Message ID: 20210522-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-22T09:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~500 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2021-05-26T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-25T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.0 flare with ID 2021-05-22T06:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-22T06:17Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-23T17:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.58", "predictionNote" : "## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (STEREO B, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-23T17:02:38Z\n## Message ID: 20210523-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO (See previous notification 20210522-AL-003). \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-22T09:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~500 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-22T16:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~611 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -17/15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001\n\n3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-22T22:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~670 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 25/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO B, Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CMEs will reach STEREO B at 2021-05-26T03:31Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2021-05-24T20:00Z, and STEREO A at 2021-05-26T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-25T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001, 2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001, 2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210522_141100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.0 flare with ID 2021-05-22T06:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-22T06:17Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001) is associated with C3.2 flare with ID 2021-05-22T15:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-22T15:35Z.\n\nThis CME event (2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.4 flare with ID 2021-05-22T21:30:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-22T21:36Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-23T17:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T17:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.13", "predictionNote" : "This prediction is based on a 5-CME simulation that contains the CME with ID 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001:\nCME Event ID: A7585 \nStart Date/Time (at 21.5Rs): \nLatitude: -6°\nLongitude: -28°\nHalf Angle: 18°\nRadial Velocity: 626 km/s\nOther CMEs in this simulation: CME Event IDs: A7586, A7588, A7590, A7592\n\nNotes:\nForecast Discussion\nSWPC Product Subscription Service \nMon 5/24/2021 8:32 AM\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2021 May 24 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity decreased to low levels this period. Region 2824\n(N19W07, Csi/beta-gamma) produced an isolated C2/1n flare at 23/1705\nUTC, along with multiple B-class flares. The GOES-16 x-ray flux showed a\ndecreasing trend in overall x-ray background throughout the period,\nhowever, Region 2824 continued to exhibit a complex magnetic structure.\nRegion 2825 (N17E47, Axx/alpha) was stable and quiet.\n\nSince early on 22 May, Region 2824 has produced multiple CMEs with\nseveral having Earth-directed components. These CMEs have been analyzed\nand consolidated into one model output. Analysis of the 22-23 May CMEs\nsuggests these events are to arrive beginning late 25 May to early 26\nMay.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to gradually decrease over the next three\ndays. Additional C-class flare activity is expected with a chance for\nR1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 24 May from Region 2824.\nC-class flare activity is likely with a slight chance for R1-R2 radio\nblackouts on 25 May. On 26 May, there is a chance for C-class flare\nactivity.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate\nlevels on 24-25 May, with high flux levels likely beginning on 26 May\ndue to CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to\npersist at background levels throughout the forecast period.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speeds were\nsteady at around 400 km/s until around 24/0000 UTC, after which speed\nvalues decreased to around 350 km/s. Total field strength was in the 2-4\nnT range and Bz varied between 0/-3 nT. The phi angle was negative.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to persist at background levels until\nlate on 25 May when multiple CMEs from 22-23 May are expected to enhance\nsolar wind parameters. Enhancements are expected to persist\nthrough 26 May.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 24 May\nthrough late on 25 May. Late on 25 May, field conditions are expected to\nincrease to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to the arrival of the 22-23 May\nCMEs. Field conditions are expected to be at G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)\nstorm levels on 26 May as CME effects persist.\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help.\n\n\nNOAA 3-Day Forecast\nSWPC Product Subscription Service \nMon 5/24/2021 8:30 PM\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2021 May 25 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 25-May 27 2021 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown May 25-May 27 2021\n\n May 25 May 26 May 27\n00-03UT 2 6 (G2) 4 \n03-06UT 1 6 (G2) 5 (G1)\n06-09UT 1 5 (G1) 4 \n09-12UT 1 5 (G1) 4 \n12-15UT 1 5 (G1) 3 \n15-18UT 4 4 3 \n18-21UT 5 (G1) 4 3 \n21-00UT 5 (G1) 4 3 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely\ndue to a few CMEs that occurred over the weekend.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 25-May 27 2021\n\n May 25 May 26 May 27\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for May 25-May 27 2021\n\n May 25 May 26 May 27\nR1-R2 10% 5% 1%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T21:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.62", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 500.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 555.016\nAcceleration: -0.399149\nDuration in seconds: 303154.50\nDuration in days: 3.5087327\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.40 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 434.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/05/2021 Time: 21:24 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T07:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T11:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.37", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 500.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 317.100\nAcceleration: 1.82954\nDuration in seconds: 267044.09\nDuration in days: 3.0907881\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.83 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 805.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/05/2021 Time: 11:22 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-24T23:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T14:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.8, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 98.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.47", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001, 2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001, and 2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210523-AL-001).Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edges of the CMEs will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-05-25T17:15Z and 2021-05-25T23:05Z (average arrival 2021-05-25T20:22Z) for 31% of simulations.\n- STEREO B between about 2021-05-25T20:48Z and 2021-05-26T05:44Z (average arrival 2021-05-26T01:51Z) for 97% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-05-25T09:19Z and 2021-05-25T22:21Z (average arrival 2021-05-25T14:04Z) for 97% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 88% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_STA_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/Detailed_results_20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080.txt\n###" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-25T21:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-26T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.12", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 22/1710\nRadial velocity (km/s): 510\nLongitude (deg): 31E\nLatitude (deg): 1N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 36\n\nNotes: Incorporated other small, likely cannibalised CMEs. \nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T22:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31737.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-25T20:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31737.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-05-14T05:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-05-14T05:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-05-19T01:16Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The start time of this CME may be off (earlier) due to a data gap in STEREO-A data. The source of this CME is a B4.9 class flare from Active Region 12823 starting at 2021-05-14T00:37Z, peaking at 2021-05-14T01:04Z, ending at 2021-05-14T01:31Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA wavelengths 193, 171, and 94. The eruption appears as a brightening from the flare in the center of the active region with dimming occurring to the south of the active region. There is a coronal hole just south of this active region that could have deflected the CME more equatorward. The CME is best seen to the West in STEREO-A COR2 imagery. There are no visible CME features in SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 imagery. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is associated with a shock observed at L1 at 2021-05-19T01:16Z. From Lan Jian, \"There seems to be a shock in early 2021-05-19, which could be related to a glimpse of the simulated CME.\"", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-14T21:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-18T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "99.52", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/16901/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-8.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=475.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2021-05-14T02:43Z\n2021-05-14T05:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=0.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=294.0, HalfAngle=14.0, Time21.5=2021-05-14T14:58Z\nNote that this is a 2-CME simulation, including the earlier CME with ID 2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001 in it. \n\nModel Output:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-05-18T12:00Z (+-7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Locations Impact:\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-14T23:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-18T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "97.37", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-15T03:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-17T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-37.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "93.68", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-05-14T12:57Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 444\nLongitude (deg): S03\nLatitude (deg): W000\nHalf-angular width (deg): 15\n\nNotes: Low confidence, not visible on Lasco, assumes emission radially from meridian. Analysis follows front on STEREO A COR2. Interacts with high speed stream from CH57/- and also earlier CME directed above the ecliptic (from near 2822).\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-15T23:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-18T07:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.77", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 350.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 400.966\nAcceleration: 0.174945\nDuration in seconds: 317369.22\nDuration in days: 3.6732549\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.17 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 456.5 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 18/05/2021 Time: 07:07 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-15T23:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-17T16:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-33.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.52", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 350.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 235.650\nAcceleration: 2.14191\nDuration in seconds: 263014.78\nDuration in days: 3.0441525\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 2.14 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 799.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/05/2021 Time: 16:01 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-18T02:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-22.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31915.67", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-18T07:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31915.67", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-05-13T19:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-05-16T18:36Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source of this CME is an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 starting at 2021-05-13T15:42Z north from Active Region 12822. The eruption features a broad dimming region north of the active region. A post-eruption arcades are visible in SDO/AIA 193/171; opening field lines are seen in STA EUVI 195 as well. This eruption possibly has two B-class flares associated with it (B1.1 class flare peaking at 2021-05-13T16:21Z and B1.2 class flare peaking at 2021-05-13T18:15Z). The resulting CME is best seen to the West in STEREO-A COR2 imagery. It appears as a faint partial-halo to the North of SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A flux rope is visible around 2021-05-16T18:36Z and may correspond to the flank of the CME. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla, \"This is a kind of Flux rope. The ICME signatures are not so clear, there is no shock and sheath...ICME identification is based on remote sensing expectations. It may be the flank of a streamer blow out or blob.\"", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-14T03:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-18T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "34.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.03", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-05-14 05:59:00Z \nRadial velocity (km/s): 328 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 6°\nLatitude (deg): 12°\nHalf-angular width (deg): 31°\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2021 May 16 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was very low. Region 2822 (N16W35, Cao/beta) continued to\ndecay and Region 2823 (S23W25, Axx/alpha) has almost become plage. No\nEarth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.\n\n.Forecast...\nVery low solar activity is expected, with a slight chance for C-class\nflares, on 16-18 May.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate\nlevels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at\nbackground levels over 16-18 May.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a\nslight enhancement early in the reporting period. Total magnetic field\nstrength reached a brief peak of 10 nT before settling near 3 nT. Bz was\n+/- 4 during the latter half of the period. Solar wind speeds averaged\nnear 425 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to trend towards background levels\nthrough 16 May. Enhanced conditions are expected due to influence from a\nnegative polarity CH HSS on 17 May. On 18 May, the anticipated arrival\nof a CME from 13 May is expected to enhance conditions even further.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels,\nwith isolated unsettled conditions, on 16 May. On 17 May, increase to\nunsettled levels are likely, with isolated active periods, in response\nto coronal hole influence. Mostly unsettled to active periods, with\nisolated G1 (Minor) storm periods are likely on 18 May due to the\narrival of a CME from 13 May.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2021 May 16 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 16-May 18 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown May 16-May 18 2021\n\n May 16 May 17 May 18\n00-03UT 2 2 3 \n03-06UT 1 2 3 \n06-09UT 1 1 2 \n09-12UT 1 1 3 \n12-15UT 1 2 3 \n15-18UT 1 3 3 \n18-21UT 2 4 4 \n21-00UT 2 4 5 (G1)\n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 18 May\ndue to negative polarity CH HSS influence and CME effects.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 16-May 18 2021\n\n May 16 May 17 May 18\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for May 16-May 18 2021\n\n May 16 May 17 May 18\nR1-R2 1% 1% 1%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast.\n\nSubmission time and prediction arrival taken from the simulation at:\nhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-14T21:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-16T21:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.30", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPrediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)\nPrediction Method Note:\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/16901/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-8.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=475.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2021-05-14T02:43Z\n2021-05-14T05:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=0.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=294.0, HalfAngle=14.0, Time21.5=2021-05-14T14:58Z\nNote that this is a 2-CME simulation, including the later CME with ID 2021-05-14T05:23:00-CME-001 in it.\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-05-16T21:49Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Locations Impact:\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-14T23:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-16T19:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.60", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-14 02:43\n- Time at C2: 2021-05-13 19:09\n- Radial speed: 475.0 km/s\n- Half angle: 27 deg\n- Eruption location: N10E08\nInferences:\n- No flare association was found\nPredictions for Earth:\n- In-situ shock speed: 548.50 km/s\n- Shock arrival time: 2021-05-16 19:25 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.28 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-15T03:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-17T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.10", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-05-14T06:16Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 332\nLongitude (deg): W027\nLatitude (deg): N19\nHalf-angular width (deg): 34\n\nNotes: Low confidence, emitted mostly above ecliptic plane.\n\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence on behalf of Alister McHardy" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-15T12:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-18T02:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "31.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.82", "predictionNote" : "This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-05-18T02:15:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 80\n\n:Issued: 2021 May 17 1401 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nWEEK 1063 from 2021 May 10\nSOLAR ACTIVITY\n---------------\nNOAA Active Region (AR) 2822 (Catania sunspot group 93) produced three C-class flares\nduring the week and started decaying. NOAA AR 2823 (Catania sunspot group 94)\nproduced only B-class flares and also decayed significantly.\n\nA partial halo, front-sided, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed at 19:00UT 13\nMay by SOHO/LASCO C2. The speed of the CME is measured to be proximately 300 km/s,\nbut since it was not observed by STEREO-A/Corr2 this speed is a lower limit. Hence,\nit is expected to arrive on Earth around the 18 May, but there is large uncertainty\nfor this prediction.\n\nA negative, equatorial coronal hole crossed the central meridian on 15 May. Due to\nits small size and patchy configuration, it is expected to have a minor impact on\nEarth. \n\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels the entire week. The\ngreater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu for the entire week. The\n24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels for the whole week." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-15T14:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-16T18:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 1.83, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 2.4, "confidenceInPercentage" : 16.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.27", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001 and 2021-05-14T05:23:00-CME-001. Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 8 (16%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-05-16T16:57Z and 2021-05-16T21:11Z (average arrival 2021-05-16T18:47Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 96% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-14_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX079/20210513_190900_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX079_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-14_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX079/20210513_190900_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX079_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-14_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX079/20210513_190900_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX079_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-14_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX079/20210513_190900_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX079_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-14_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX079/Detailed_results_20210513_190900_ncmes2_sims48_HILOX079.txt\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-15T23:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-17T08:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.60", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 475.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 529.341\nAcceleration: -0.299686\nDuration in seconds: 279060.73\nDuration in days: 3.2298695\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.30 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 445.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/05/2021 Time: 08:14 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-15T23:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-17T00:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.35", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 475.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 303.525\nAcceleration: 1.88404\nDuration in seconds: 251664.34\nDuration in days: 2.9127818\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.88 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 777.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/05/2021 Time: 00:37 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-17T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 48.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31970.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-17T04:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 48.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-31970.33", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-05-09T11:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-05-09T11:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-05-12T05:48Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME associated with a filament eruption starting 2021-05-09T10:06Z visible in the disk center in SDO AIA 193/304 (and in the W STA EUVI 195). Clear arrival signature at L1 with IPS at 2021-05-12T05:48Z marked by sudden increase in B total to above 23 nT, a sudden jump in solar wind speed from 310 km/s to 450-490 km/s and increases in solar wind density and temperature; Bz reached negative values of around -19 nT for a brief time.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-09T18:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-12T03:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.83", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-09T19:20:12Z ## Message ID: 20210509-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-09T11:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~717 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -10/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-09T11:23:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-05-09T15:23Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~580 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -60/12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-05-09T15:23:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2021-05-12T08:08Z, STEREO A at 2021-05-12T08:55Z, and Mars at 2021-05-14T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-12T03:34Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-09T11:23:00-CME-001, 2021-05-09T15:23:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210509_155400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210509_155400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210509_155400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210509_155400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210509_155400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210509_155400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210509_155400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210509_155400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210509_155400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210509_155400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThe source of the CME event with ID 2021-05-09T11:23:00-CME-001 is a filament eruption visible in SDO EUV imagery beginning at 2021-05-09T10:06Z and centered around location S20E10. \n\nThe CME event with ID 2021-05-09T15:23:00-CME-001 is associated with a C4.0 flare with ID 2021-05-09T13:39:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-09T13:58Z. The source of this flare and CME event is AR 2822 (N18E49).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-10T01:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-12T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.55", "predictionNote" : "filament erruption obserd in SDO images in SE quadrant (near centre of the disk) with an associated CME An associated CME observed in STEREO A imagery." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-10T07:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-12T19:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.70", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Monday, May 10, 2021 3:06 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) \nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-05-12T19:45:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 70" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-10T13:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-12T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.18", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-05-09T17:04Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 500\nLongitude (deg): W010\nLatitude (deg): S02\nHalf-angular width (deg): 40\n\nNotes: Filament eruption just south and east from central meridian observed 09/1030Z. SOHO imagery suggests a wider cone angle. Later MOSWOC Enlil analyses broadly support this initial analysis, Lasco C2 perhaps shows shock and has strongly asymmetric cone (wider than high), main fit to ejecta therefore conducted on St A COR2.\n\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence on behalf of Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-10T14:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-13T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.80", "predictionNote" : "CME Event ID: A7566\nStart Date/Time: 2021-05-09 18:17:00Z \nLatitude: -1°\nLongitude: 35°\nHalf Angle: 33°\nRadial Velocity: 564 km/s\n\n---\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2021 May 11 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels. Region 2822 (N18E33, Dao/beta-gamma)\nwas much less active today and did not produce significant flares.\nRegion 2823 (N21E39, Cao/beta) was also quiet.\n\nThe CME associated with the filament eruption that occurred at\napproximately 09/1000 UTC likely has some Earth-directed component,\nbased on its source region and presentation in STEREO-A coronagraph\nimagery. Model analysis, while somewhat uncertain based on the lack of a\nclear signature in LASCO C2/C3, suggests arrival on 13 May. An earlier\narrival on 12 May cannot be ruled out either, given the low confidence\nin the model output.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for\nM-class (R1-R2 radio blackouts) flares through 13 May, given the history\nand magnetic complexity of Region 2822.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to\nmoderate through 13 May and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is\nexpected to remain at background.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe IMF was slightly disturbed, likely due to current sheet interaction.\nTotal magnetic field strength peaked near 12 nT and the Bz component\nbriefly exceeded -5 nT a few times. Wind speed averaged about 350 km/s.\nPhi was often variable between positive and negative orientations.\n\n.Forecast...\nMinor interactions are anticipated on 11 May with continued current\nsheet effects, and eventually, possible interaction with a weak and\nnarrow, negative polarity CH HSS. The CME mentioned earlier in this\ndiscussion is likely to arrive on 13 May but could arrive as early as\nlate on 12 May, given the low confidence in the model initialization\nprocess.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for\nmuch of the next two days (11-12 May) until the 09 May CME arrives.\nThere is a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms on 13 May and\npossibly on 12 May if the CME is moving faster than anticipated.\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help.\n\n---\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2021 May 11 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 11-May 13 2021 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown May 11-May 13 2021\n\n May 11 May 12 May 13\n00-03UT 3 2 4 \n03-06UT 3 2 4 \n06-09UT 2 2 4 \n09-12UT 2 1 3 \n12-15UT 1 1 2 \n15-18UT 1 1 2 \n18-21UT 1 1 2 \n21-00UT 2 4 2 \n\nRationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms on 13 May\nand possibly on 12 May if the CME is moving faster than anticipated.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 11-May 13 2021\n\n May 11 May 12 May 13\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for May 11-May 13 2021\n\n May 11 May 12 May 13\nR1-R2 15% 15% 15%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast.\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help.\n\n---\n\nRun time and prediction arrival take from the simulation at:\nhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-10T23:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-12T20:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.80", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 500.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 555.016\nAcceleration: -0.399149\nDuration in seconds: 271356.01\nDuration in days: 3.1406945\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.40 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 446.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/05/2021 Time: 20:26 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-10T23:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-12T14:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.55", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 500.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 317.100\nAcceleration: 1.82954\nDuration in seconds: 249306.57\nDuration in days: 2.8854927\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.83 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 773.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/05/2021 Time: 14:19 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-05-11T13:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-12T04:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.28, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.53", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2021-05-09T11:23:00-CME-001 and 2021-05-09T15:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210509-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-05-12T04:13Z and 2021-05-12T08:34Z (average arrival 2021-05-12T06:15Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-05-11T22:27Z and 2021-05-12T11:26Z (average arrival 2021-05-12T04:44Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-11_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005/20210509_112400_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-11_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005/20210509_112400_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-11_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005/20210509_112400_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-11_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005/20210509_112400_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-11_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005/20210509_112400_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-11_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005/20210509_112400_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-11_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005/Detailed_results_20210509_112400_ncmes2_sims48_LAHAINA005.txt\n\nThe flank of the CMEs may also reach Mars around 2021-05-14T21:00Z and Solar Orbiter around 2021-05-12T09:00Z.\n###\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-12T15:58Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.2, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-32079.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-12T17:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-32079.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-04-26T19:39:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-04-26T19:39Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-05-01T12:50Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME observed in W of STEREO A COR2 beginning 2021-04-26T19:39Z, faintly visible as a partial halo in the south of SOHO LASCO/C3 by 2021-04-2706:18Z. Associated with a large filament eruption from south Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 304 between 2021-04-26T15:00-20:00Z (with biggest lift around 2021-04-26T18:00Z).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-27T12:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-30T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 18.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 18.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "96.02", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Monday, April 26, 2021 8:49 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) \nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-04-30T23:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 18\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 2\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 10" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-27T20:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-30T20:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "88.80", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/16800/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-04-26T19:39:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=7.0, Lat.=-18.0, Speed=232.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2021-04-27T11:47Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-04-30T20:40Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210427_114700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-28T05:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-05-01T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.50", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-30T23:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-32336.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-30T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-32336.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-04-22T05:23:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-04-22T05:23Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-04-24T22:24Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Associated with an eruption visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 171/193 beginning 2021-04-22T04:21Z, and associated with C3.8 flare beginning at 2021-04-22T04:10 and peaking at 2021-04-22T04:35Z. There is some northeastern deflection apparent in the available EUV imagery. Arrival signaled by sudden rise in Btotal from 5 to 8 nT at 2021-04-2422:24Z, followed shortly by an increase in Btotal to above 10 nT, accompanied by jumps in velocity, density, and temperature as measured by DSCOVR.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-22T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-25T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.40", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2021 Apr 23 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was low. Region 2816 (S24W18, Cro/beta) produced multiple\nC-class flares, including a C3/1f flare at 22/0435 UTC. This flare was\nassociated with Type II and Type IV radio sweeps and a partial-halo CME\nseen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraph imagery. The CME was modeled and it\nwas determined to have an Earth-directed component that is likely to\npass Earth on day 3 (25 Apr) of the forecast. No other Earth-directed\nCMEs were noted.\n\n\nNotes:\n\nFor more information, see https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g2-moderate-storm-watch-25-april-utc-day." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-22T16:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-24T17:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.13", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/16773/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-04-22T05:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-8.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=803.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2021-04-22T09:37Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-04-24T17:24Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =22.4 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0\n(kp)90=4\n(kp)180=6\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-04-25T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-22T19:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-24T20:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.40", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-04-22 09:37\n - Time at C2: 2021-04-22 05:23\n - Radial speed: 803.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 30 deg\n - Eruption location: S13E08\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: C3.8 (S25W06). Peak at 2021-04-22 04:10\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 623.13 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2021-04-24 20:16 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.90 hours)\n - Kp= 5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-22T23:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-25T00:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.15", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-04-22T10:44Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 660\nLongitude (deg): 16E\nLatitude (deg): 15S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 28\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-23T02:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-24T19:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 14.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.17", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth)\n\nBased on preliminary analysis of the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and ensemble heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-04-24T12:14Z and 2021-04-25T10:31Z (average arrival 2021-04-25T00:59Z) for 60% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-04-24T08:18Z and 2021-04-25T10:19Z (average arrival 2021-04-24T19:25Z) for 93% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 74% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-04-22_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004/20210422_052300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-04-22_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004/20210422_052300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-04-22_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004/20210422_052300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-04-22_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004/20210422_052300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-04-22_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004/20210422_052300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-04-22_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004/20210422_052300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-04-22_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004/Detailed_results_20210422_052300_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA004.txt\n###" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-23T06:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-25T23:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "25.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.42", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Friday, April 23, 2021 2:59 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) \nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-04-25T23:30:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 5\nprobability_of_arrival: 80" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-23T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-24T18:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.40", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 803.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 866.197\nAcceleration: -1.72490\nDuration in seconds: 220020.03\nDuration in days: 2.5465281\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.72 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 486.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/04/2021 Time: 18:30 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-23T07:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-25T00:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.15", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 803.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 481.629\nAcceleration: 1.09126\nDuration in seconds: 242431.75\nDuration in days: 2.8059230\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.09 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 746.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/04/2021 Time: 00:43 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-23T08:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-25T01:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.97", "predictionNote" : "Shock speed: 803 km/s\nSolar wind speed: 400 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-23T08:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-24T18:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.97", "predictionNote" : "Shock speed: 803 km/s\nSource location: E8S13\nSolar wind speed: 400 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-25T00:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.4, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-32494.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-24T22:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-32494.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-04-20T00:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-04-20T00:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-04-22T08:50Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "A CME was detected in the east of SOHO C2 coronagraph starting at 2021-04-20T00:12Z. The CME is also visible in SOHO C3 and STEREO A COR2A. The source of the CME was an eruption from AR2816 (S24E23) around 2021-04-19T23:20Z. The eruption was associated with an M1.1 flare starting at 2021-04-19T23:19Z and peaked at 2021-04-19T23:42Z. The CME arrival was predicted to be a glancing blow and a weak signature at L1 by DSCOVR is seen around 04-22T08:50Z. At this time, a magnetic field rotation is visible while the temperature remains low.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-20T15:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-22T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.10", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/16761/1\nModel Inputs:\n2021-04-20T00:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=583.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2021-04-20T06:38Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-04-22T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-04-22T20:31Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210420_063800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-20T22:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-22T20:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.83", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-04-20 06:38\n-Time at C2: 2021-04-20 00:12\n-Radial speed: 583.0 km/s\n-Half angle: 28 deg\n-Eruption location: S07E37\n\nInferences:\n-No flare association was found\n\nPredictions for Earth:\n-In-situ shock speed: 580.90 km/s\n-Shock arrival time: 2021-04-22 20:03 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.87 hours)\n-Predicted KP 4" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-21T06:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-23T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.20", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Wednesday, April 21, 2021 2:38 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) \nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-04-23T12:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 4\nprobability_of_arrival: 5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-23T02:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-32556.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-22T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-32556.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-04-10T06:53:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-04-10T06:53Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-04-15T03:28Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source for this CME was unclear. The latitude and longitude were adjusted for this CME based on SWPC_CAT analysis with 2 coronagraphs (SOHO/STA). A flux rope type signature was visible around 04-15T03:28 by DSCOVR at L1.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-12T21:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-15T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.18", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n\n## Summary:\n\nS-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-04-10T06:53Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~239 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 19/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-04-10T06:53:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-04-15T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-04-10T06:53:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210411_005200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210411_005200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210411_005200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210411_005200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210411_005200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210411_005200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210411_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210411_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210411_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-04-15T11:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-15T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-7.53", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 10/2359Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 300 km/s.\nLongitude (deg): 19W\nLatitude (deg): 9S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 27 deg.\n\nNotes: Having seen possible signatures of a CME arrival in solar wind parameters this morning & magnetometers, I have reanalysed a CME from 10/11 April, which previously we had passing ahead of Earth. There was a very faint partial halo in SOHO C2/C3. Enlil has an arrival on afternoon/evening of 14th, but background solar winds are too strong suggesting later arrival. \nSpace weather advisor: moswoc" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-15T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-32729.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-04-15T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-32729.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-03-21T23:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-03-21T23:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-03-26T21:35Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME signature is not clear and it may be combined with a stream interaction region. Arrival time was difficult to select. We discussed it with GSFC ICME experts for clarification. From Dr. Lan Jian: There is a magnetic obstacle from Mar 26 21:35 to Mar 27 14:40, characterized by some non-smooth field rotations, increased B, declining speed, and low Tp. I selected the boundaries based on the sharp changes of total B, but there are boundary layers at its two sides. After it, there is a stream interaction region, in which the “fast” wind speed is not that fast (less than 450 km/s), and the stream interface is at 22:48 on Mar 27.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-03-22T12:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-26T20:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "104.93", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-03-22T22:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-26T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "95.23", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nWSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2021-03-22T22:21Z\n\nModel Inputs:\n2021-03-22T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-43.0, Lat.=-23.0, Speed=406.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2021-03-22T11:57Z\n2021-03-21T23:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=24.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=281.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2021-03-22T16:34Z\n\nModel Outputs:\nEarth Impact:\n(Glancing Blow) Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-03-26T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2021-03-25T08:00Z (Glancing Blow)\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\nNote:\n\nSubmitted on 2021-03-22T22:37Z by Ethan Robinett" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-26T14:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-33191.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-26T14:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-33191.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-03-20T00:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-03-20T00:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-03-24T19:18Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This arrival was attributed earlier to the signature seen at L1 around 2021-03-24T04:57Z. After a discussion with two ICME experts, it was decided that the second and stronger structure detected at L1 around 2021-03-24T19:18Z was the actual CME arrival. The first signature did not decrease in temperature while the second structure display clear signatures of a flux rope in the magnetic field, temperature and velocity.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-03-20T13:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-23T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "101.83", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n\nS-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-03-20T00:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~422 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-03-20T00:48:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-03-23T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-03-20T00:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210320_115900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210320_115900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210320_115900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210320_115900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210320_115900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210320_115900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210320_115900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210320_115900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210320_115900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-03-20T14:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-23T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-37.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "100.47", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-03-21T00:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-22T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-47.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "90.75", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-03-20 10:01\nRadial velocity (km/s): 530.3\nLongitude (deg): -35.2\nLatitude (deg): -2.2\nHalf-angular width (deg): 33.5\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-03-21T05:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-23T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-39.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "86.22", "predictionNote" : "lat=-6\nlon=-40\ncone=39speed=469 km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-03-21T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-23T13:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.30", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 470.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 524.206\nAcceleration: -0.279975\nDuration in seconds: 306314.75\nDuration in days: 3.5453096\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.28 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 438.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/03/2021 Time: 13:53 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-03-21T07:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-23T02:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-40.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.13", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 470.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 300.810\nAcceleration: 1.89483\nDuration in seconds: 266480.06\nDuration in days: 3.0842599\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.89 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 805.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/03/2021 Time: 02:49 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-03-22T12:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-23T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.15", "predictionNote" : "Latest issue\n:Issued: 2021 Mar 21 1148 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial-halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), with an angular width of about\n150 degrees, was observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery on Mar 20,\n2021, from around 01:45 UTC. The CME is due to a filament eruption in the\nsouth east quadrant that occurred late on Mar 19. The projected speed was\nestimated around 300 km/s, with an estimated true speed of up to 500 km/s.\nSince the filament was located close to the central meridian of the solar\ndisc, the CME may have a glancing blow at Earth on Mar 23 / early on Mar\n24.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n\nFrom: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Monday, March 22, 2021 8:09 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) \nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-03-23T23:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 5\nprobability_of_arrival: 50" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-03-22T20:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-23T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.30", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nFrom SWPC Forecast Discussion, 2021-03-21T00:30Z:\n\nA partial-halo CME, with PAs of approximately 340 degrees to 135\ndegrees, was observed lifting off of the ENE limb, in LASCO C2 imagery\nbeginning at 20/0125 UTC. The source of the CME appeared to\nhave originated along a SE-NW oriented broad channel in the southern\nhemisphere. Coronal dimming and reconnection was observed along this\nchannel beginning about 19/2000 UTC and continued through midday on 20\nMar. Initial analysis and subsequent model output indicated a possible\nglancing blow at Earth midday on 23 Mar." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-23T08:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-34.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-33241.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-03-23T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-34.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-33241.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-02-20T11:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-02-20T11:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-02-23T05:00Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "From Dr. Lan Jian: In the declining part of the fast wind stream, there seem to be two flux ropes: one during Feb 23 05UT – Feb 24 03UT, and the other one from Feb 24 04UT to present.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-02-21T01:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-02-23T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.45", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2021 Feb 22 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was very low. Region 2803 (N20, L=277) decayed to plage.\nNew Region 2804 (N20E02, Bxo/Beta) quietly emerged on the disk this\nperiod. No new Earth-directed CMEs were detected.\n\nA filament eruption was observed near mid-day on 20 Feb in the SE\nquadrant. A subsequent partial-halo CME signature followed the eruption,\nfirst observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 20/1200 UTC.\nAnalysis and modeling of the event suggested the bulk of the plasma\nheaded downstream of Earth; however, a glancing blow from the periphery\nof the CME is likely on 23-24 Feb.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 22-24 Feb.\n\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum\nflux of 6,702 pfu observed at 21/1505 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux remained at background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to\nhigh levels on 22-24 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is\nexpected to remain at background levels.\n\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters remained enhanced due to negative polarity CH HSS\ninfluence. Solar wind speeds averaged about 575 km/s with several peaks\nnear 620 km/s. Total field generally ranged from 4-6 nT while the Bz\ncomponent varied between +4 nT to -6 nT. The phi angle remained in a\npredominately negative solar sector.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced through 24 Feb. CH HSS\ninfluences are expected persist, though gradually wane, through 22 Feb.\nConditions are expected to become more enhanced on 23-24 Feb due to the\npossible arrival of the 20 Feb CME.\n\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS\ninfluences.\n\n.Forecast\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels,\nwith isolated active intervals, on 22 Feb as CH HSS influences persist.\nUnsettled to active levels, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storm\nconditions, are likely on 23-24 Feb, all due to potential effects from\nthe 20 Feb CME.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2021 Feb 22 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 22-Feb 24 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 22-Feb 24 2021\n\n Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb 24\n00-03UT 4 3 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 4 3 5 (G1)\n06-09UT 3 2 4 \n09-12UT 3 3 4 \n12-15UT 2 2 3 \n15-18UT 2 2 2 \n18-21UT 1 4 2 \n21-00UT 2 5 (G1) 3 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 23 and 24 Feb due\nto possible CME effects.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2021\n\n Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb 24\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2021\n\n Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb 24\nR1-R2 1% 1% 1%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast.\n\nRun time and prediction arrival take from the simulation at:\nhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-02-21T02:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-02-22T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.12", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-02-20T16:17Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 931 \nLongitude (deg): -22\nLatitude (deg): -13\nHalf-angular width (deg): 22\n\nNotes: No St A imagery, Lasco only. Fil erupt from SE quadrant, resulting in partial halo bisecting the ecliptic plane, with ejecta appearing between roughly solar meridian and behind Earth in its orbit. Mod confidence at best, due to lack of triangulating St A imagery, and fact glancing blow is forecast. Arrival time probably on fast end of spectrum given recent tendency of MOSWOC Enlil to initialise on the fast side. \n\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-02-21T11:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-02-23T12:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 18.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 18.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.77", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Monday, February 22, 2021 6:16 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) \nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2021-02-23T12:28:00\ntime_uncertainty: 18\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 75\n\n:Issued: 2021 Feb 21 1114 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial-halo Coronal Mass Ejection (with and angular width of about 152\ndegree) was observed on SOHO/LASCO coronagraph images on February 20, 2021,\naround 11:30 UTC. The CME is due to a filament located around -15 degree\nlongitude and -20 degree latitude that erupted around 10:00 UTC. The\nprojected speed was estimated between 300 km/s and 500 km/s, but we\nestimated the true speed to be higher up to 600 km/s. Since the filament\nwas located close to the central meridian of the solar disc, we expected\nthe CME to glance Earth in about 2-3 days from now (around February 23 and\n24).\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-02-21T14:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-02-23T00:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.22", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2021-02-22T11:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-02-22T12:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.05", "predictionNote" : "Source location: E22S13\nInitial shock speed: 931 km/s\nSolar wind speed: 560 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2021-02-22T12:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-02-22T15:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.97", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 931 km/s\nSolar wind speed: 560 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr (default)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-02-22T23:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-02-23T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "5.83", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-02-24T14:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-02-22T14:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.28, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.73, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-33.17", "predictionNote" : "Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO A between about 2021-02-22T11:22Z and 2021-02-23T03:16Z (average arrival 2021-02-22T20:26Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2021-02-24T00:48Z and 2021-02-25T07:23Z (average arrival 2021-02-24T16:53Z) for 93% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-02-22T05:28Z and 2021-02-22T20:55Z (average arrival 2021-02-22T14:12Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 80% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_arrival_STA.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_STA_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/Detailed_results_20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-02-22T23:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.25, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-33951.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-02-22T20:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 62.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-33951.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-01-02T11:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-01-06T00:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is preceded by the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. An eruption signature is visible in SDO AIA 193/304/171, showing some dark filament material rising from approximately S40W15 beginning around 2021-01-02T09:00Z with rising material/opening field lines also visible beyond the western limb in the view of STA EUVI 195. This is followed by a clear liftoff of filamentary material in SDO AIA 304 at 10:45Z, and then significant darkening seen along the entire filament from ~S10 to S40 and W00 to W30 beginning around 11:00Z. The effects of this CME are likely combined with the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME.\n\nARRIVAL SIGNATURE: From Lan Jian: This event should be a HSS with CME embedded. There seems to be a sector boundary at about Jan. 5 12UT. The smooth magnetic field rotations concur with the second B pile-up and second Vp increase. I don’t see a shock associated with the event. The flux rope part is from about 0 to 6 UT on Jan. 6. It is possible Earth only encountered the CME at the flank.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-02T20:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-06T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.00", "predictionNote" : "CME #1\nCME Event ID: A7445\nStart Date/Time: 2021-01-02 13:11:00Z \nLatitude: -24°\nLongitude: 25°\nHalf Angle: 30°\nRadial Velocity: 244 km/s\n\nCME #2\nCME Event ID: A7446\nStart Date/Time: 2021-01-02 17:49:00Z \nLatitude: -10°\nLongitude: 10°\nHalf Angle: 29°\nRadial Velocity: 451 km/s\n\n---\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2021 Jan 04 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was very low. Region 2795 (S18, L=321) decayed to plage\nas it neared the W. limb.\n\nThe CMEs that first left the Sun on 01 and 02 Jan were analyzed and\nmodeled. The first, slow-moving CME was overtaken by the faster second\nCME on 02 Jan. The model runs suggested a reasonable 06 Jan for the\nonset of CME effects at Earth; however, due to two interacting\ntransients along the Sun-Earth line there is an introduction of\nadditional uncertainty with the arrival timing. Observed onset has the\npotential to deviate from the modeling of the event more than usual.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be very low on 04-06 Jan.\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to\nmoderate on 04-06 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is\nexpected to persist at background levels.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters, measured at L1, are likely to undergo\nenhancements from a SSBC followed by coronal hole influence on 05 Jan.\nCombined influence from a negative polarity coronal hole and the 02 Jan\nCME is likely on 06 Jan.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet levels on 04 Jan. An\nincrease to active levels is possible on 05 Jan due to the onset of an\nanticipated SSBC followed by coronal hole influence late in day. G1\n(Minor) conditions are likely on 06 Jan due to the forecasted arrival a\nCME that left of the Sun on 02 Jan combined with ongoing coronal hole\ninfluence.\n\n---\nSpace Weather Message Code: WATA20\nSerial Number: 879\nIssue Time: 2021 Jan 03 2044 UTC\n\nWATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted\n\nHighest Storm Level Predicted by Day:\nJan 04: None (Below G1) Jan 05: None (Below G1) Jan 06: G1 (Minor)\n\nTHIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT\n\nNOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at\nwww.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation\n\nPotential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.\nInduced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.\nSpacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.\nAurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.\n\n---\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2021 Jan 04 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 04-Jan 06 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 04-Jan 06 2021\n\n Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06\n00-03UT 1 2 4 \n03-06UT 0 2 5 (G1)\n06-09UT 1 2 4 \n09-12UT 1 1 3 \n12-15UT 1 1 3 \n15-18UT 1 3 3 \n18-21UT 1 3 2 \n21-00UT 2 4 3 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on Jan 06\ndue to anticipated CME effects.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 04-Jan 06 2021\n\n Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Jan 04-Jan 06 2021\n\n Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06\nR1-R2 1% 1% 1%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-02T21:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.00", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-01-02T20:42:46Z\n## Message ID: 20210102-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-01-01T22:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~544 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 14/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-01-02T11:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~617 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 17/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001\n\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-01-05T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001, 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttps://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-02T21:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T05:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.60", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-01-02 16:55\n- Time at C2: 2021-01-02 11:24\n- Radial speed: 617.0 km/s\n- Half angle: 35 deg\n- Eruption location: S09W17\nInferences:\n - No flare association was found\nPredictions for Earth:\n - In-situ shock speed: 591.10 km/s\n - Shock arrival time: 2021-01-05 05:59 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.60 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-03T01:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.00", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-01-02T16:56Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 527\nLongitude (deg): W010\nLatitude (deg): S13\nHalf-angular width (deg): 27\n\nNotes: Nil.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-03T12:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.35", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-03T13:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T18:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.75", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2021-01-02 11:24:00\nInitial Shock Speed: 617 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 380 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.5 hrs\n\nOutput Results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2021-01-05 18:22:29" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-03T13:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T04:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.68", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2021-01-02 11:24:00\nSource Longtitude: 17\nSource Latitude: -9\nInitial Shock Speed: 617 km/s \nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 380 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.5 hrs\n\nOutput results:\nThe shock will arrive at the Earth at 2021-01-05 04:32:09\nThe transit time predicted is 65.14 hours!\n\nThe online prediction of SPM2 is available at:\nhttps://www.spaceweather.ac.cn/groupmodel.php?group=sigma" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-04T05:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.18", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-04T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T11:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.00", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 617.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 675.18\nAcceleration: -0.884741\nDuration in seconds: 259969.32\nDuration in days: 3.0089041\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.88 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 445.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 05/01/2021 Time: 11:36 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-04T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T09:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.00", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2020]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 617.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 380.63\nAcceleration: 1.56147\nDuration in seconds: 252166.41\nDuration in days: 2.9185927\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 1.56 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 774.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 05/01/2021 Time: 09:26 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-04T08:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-06T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.52", "predictionNote" : "Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-01-06T12:00 (-7.0h, +7.0h) \nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0% \nPredicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3 - 5\nPrediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-04T20:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T20:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.25", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-01-04T21:42:06Z\n## Message ID: 20210104-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with ID(s) 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001 and 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210102-AL-001). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-01-05T20:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n\n\nUpdated CME parameters are (event downgraded to S-type):\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2021-01-01T22:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~372 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2021-01-02T11:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~626 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 44/-26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001, 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttps://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T17:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 71.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.42857, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-35108.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T17:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-35108.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2021-01-01T22:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2021-01-06T00:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME precedes the 2021-01-02T11:24Z CME. This CME is associated with a filament eruption observed south of the Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 193/304 (centered near S30W05 just below a small coronal hole structure) starting as early as 2021-01-01T19:00Z. The start time of this CME is chosen based on the visibility of a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2 seen to emerge starting at 2021-01-01T22:00Z. The effects of this CME are likely combined with the 2021-01-02T11:24Z CME.\n\nARRIVAL SIGNATURE: From Lan Jian: This event should be a HSS with CME embedded. There seems to be a sector boundary at about Jan. 5 12UT. The smooth magnetic field rotations concur with the second B pile-up and second Vp increase. I don’t see a shock associated with the event. The flux rope part is from about 0 to 6 UT on Jan. 6. It is possible Earth only encountered the CME at the flank.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-02T20:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-06T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.00", "predictionNote" : "CME #1\nCME Event ID: A7445\nStart Date/Time: 2021-01-02 13:11:00Z \nLatitude: -24°\nLongitude: 25°\nHalf Angle: 30°\nRadial Velocity: 244 km/s\n\nCME #2\nCME Event ID: A7446\nStart Date/Time: 2021-01-02 17:49:00Z \nLatitude: -10°\nLongitude: 10°\nHalf Angle: 29°\nRadial Velocity: 451 km/s\n\n---\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2021 Jan 04 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was very low. Region 2795 (S18, L=321) decayed to plage\nas it neared the W. limb.\n\nThe CMEs that first left the Sun on 01 and 02 Jan were analyzed and\nmodeled. The first, slow-moving CME was overtaken by the faster second\nCME on 02 Jan. The model runs suggested a reasonable 06 Jan for the\nonset of CME effects at Earth; however, due to two interacting\ntransients along the Sun-Earth line there is an introduction of\nadditional uncertainty with the arrival timing. Observed onset has the\npotential to deviate from the modeling of the event more than usual.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be very low on 04-06 Jan.\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to\nmoderate on 04-06 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is\nexpected to persist at background levels.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters, measured at L1, are likely to undergo\nenhancements from a SSBC followed by coronal hole influence on 05 Jan.\nCombined influence from a negative polarity coronal hole and the 02 Jan\nCME is likely on 06 Jan.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet levels on 04 Jan. An\nincrease to active levels is possible on 05 Jan due to the onset of an\nanticipated SSBC followed by coronal hole influence late in day. G1\n(Minor) conditions are likely on 06 Jan due to the forecasted arrival a\nCME that left of the Sun on 02 Jan combined with ongoing coronal hole\ninfluence.\n\n---\nSpace Weather Message Code: WATA20\nSerial Number: 879\nIssue Time: 2021 Jan 03 2044 UTC\n\nWATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted\n\nHighest Storm Level Predicted by Day:\nJan 04: None (Below G1) Jan 05: None (Below G1) Jan 06: G1 (Minor)\n\nTHIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT\n\nNOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at\nwww.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation\n\nPotential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.\nInduced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.\nSpacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.\nAurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.\n\n---\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2021 Jan 04 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 04-Jan 06 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 04-Jan 06 2021\n\n Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06\n00-03UT 1 2 4 \n03-06UT 0 2 5 (G1)\n06-09UT 1 2 4 \n09-12UT 1 1 3 \n12-15UT 1 1 3 \n15-18UT 1 3 3 \n18-21UT 1 3 2 \n21-00UT 2 4 3 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on Jan 06\ndue to anticipated CME effects.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 04-Jan 06 2021\n\n Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Jan 04-Jan 06 2021\n\n Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06\nR1-R2 1% 1% 1%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-02T21:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.00", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-01-02T20:42:46Z\n## Message ID: 20210102-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-01-01T22:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~544 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 14/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2021-01-02T11:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~617 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 17/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001\n\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-01-05T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001, 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_023500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttps://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-03T12:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.35", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)", "submissionTime" : "2021-01-04T20:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T20:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.25", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n\n## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2021-01-04T21:42:06Z\n## Message ID: 20210104-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with ID(s) 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001 and 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210102-AL-001). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-01-05T20:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).\n\n\nUpdated CME parameters are (event downgraded to S-type):\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2021-01-01T22:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~372 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2021-01-02T11:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~626 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 44/-26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001, 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttps://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T20:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-35108.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2021-01-05T18:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-35108.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2020-12-07T16:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2020-12-10T01:29Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is associated with a C7.4 flare from AR 2790 (S23W11) that peaked at 2020-12-07T16:32Z. The eruption signature of this event can be seen in SDO AIA 193/304 starting as early 2020-12-07T15:30Z. The chosen start time for this CME event is the initial time it was observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery since SOHO LASCO data was unaavailable during real-time analysis. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: Beginning at 2020-12-10T01:29Z, DSCOVR detects magnetic field strength increases to 10 nT, solar wind speed jumps from 450 to 600 km/s, density jumps to over 20/cc, and temperatures jump to over 300,000 K. Similar signatures are seen by ACE at the same time.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-07T20:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T05:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.67", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2020-12-07T20:49:51Z\n## Message ID: 20201207-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20201207-AL-001). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2020-12-10T09:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2020-12-09T05:23Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-8 (minor to severe).\n \n\nUpdated O-type CME parameters are:\n\nStart time of the event: 2020-12-07T16:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1383 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 12/-21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201207_184900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001) is associated with a C7.4 flare with ID 2020-12-07T15:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2020-12-07T16:32Z. The source of this CME and associated flare is active region 12790.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-07T23:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T22:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.48", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at C2: 2020-12-07 16:24\n - Radial speed: 1383.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 41 deg\n - Eruption location: S21W12\n Inferences:\n   - Associated flare: C7.4 (S25W09). Peak at 2020-12-07 15:46\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 712.18 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2020-12-09 22:55 (i.e. predicted transit time: 54.53 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-08T04:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.32", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-08T06:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.13", "predictionNote" : "Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-09T16:00 (-7.0h, +7.0h) \nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0% \nPredicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6 - 8\nPrediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-08T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T03:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.48", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1383.0 km/s \nEAMv2 output:\nu_r = 1461.86\nAcceleration: -4.88230\nDuration in seconds: 126539.81\nDuration in days: 1.4645811\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -4.88 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 844.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/12/2020 Time: 03:32 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-08T07:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-10T00:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.23", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2020]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1383.0 km/s \nUpgraded EAMv3 output:\nu_r = 796.569\nAcceleration: -0.722209\nDuration in seconds: 201573.18\nDuration in days: 2.3330229\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.72 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 651.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/12/2020 Time: 00:23 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-08T08:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T07:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 99.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.35", "predictionNote" : "Prediction Method: DBM(DBEMv3)\n\nPrediction Method Note:\nDrag-based model in ensemble mode v3 (DBEMv3-ESA/SSA application)\nhttp://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather\n\nModel & CME input parameters (CME input taken from Donki):\nstart time: 2020-12-07 18:49 (+/-30 min)\nstart distance: 21.5 Rsun\ninitial speed: 1383 km/s (+/-200)\nhalfwidth: 41 deg (+/-15)\nlon: 12 deg (+/-30)\nsolar wind speed: 400 km/s (+/-50)\ngamma: 0.1 (+/-0.1)\n------\nprobability of arrival: 99%\nCME arrival date & time: 2020-12-09 07:22 (+7.1h, -5.3h)\nCME arrival speed: 819 km/s (+270 km/s, -149 km/s)\n------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-08T09:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.53", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2020 Dec 08 0957 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA full halo CME was first seen by LASCO C2 at 16:24 UT on 7 December, with\na speed of 1280 km/s, associated with a long duration C7.4 flare from NOAA\nAR 2790. It is expected to arrive to the Earth around 17:00 UT on December\n9.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n\nFrom: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Tuesday, December 8, 2020 5:05 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) \nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n \nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2020-12-09T17:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 4\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 90" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-08T10:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.98", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-12-07T20:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 900 km/s.\nLongitude (deg): 5 W\nLatitude (deg): 17 S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 47 deg \n\nNotes: A good fit was possible with NOAA CAT tool on Stereo A COR2 and SOHO Lasco C2/C3. The fit was made along the sun-earth line - a speed of 900 km/s was determined, varying between 820 and 1000 km/s - the CME was faster to the south. Enlil has come back with an arrival time of Wednesday evening, around 2100Z. It is possible that the background solar wind fields may be faster than the model's winds, which may bring the arrival time forwards by a few hours. Expected G1/G2 with 70% confidence (20% for G3).\nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC team" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CAT-PUMA", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-08T11:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-10T06:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.45", "predictionNote" : "This is a prediction for the CME at 2020-12-07 16:24 UT\n\nCME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 & C3:\nOnset time: 2020-12-07 16:24 UT\nAngular width: 360\nAverage speed: 1143.7 km/s\nFinal speed: 1151.0 km/s\nMass: 4.13e15 g (average value from the model)\nMPA: 197.6\n\nSolar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft:\nBz: 1.164 nT\nAlpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041 # No observation, use average value in the model\nFlow Speed: 456.83 km/s\nFlow Latitude: 7.417 degree\nPressure: 0.584 nPa\nFlow Longitude: 3.428 degree\nBx: -0.755 nT\nTemperature: 132689.2 K" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-08T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.98", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2020 Dec 08 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached low levels. Region 2791 (S15, L=221) was inactive\nand decayed to plage. Region 2790 (S22W23, Hsx/alpha) produced a long\nduration C7 flare which resulted in a full halo CME as observed in\ncoronagraph imagery. A consensus of model runs suggest speeds between\n830-880 km/s, and arrival in the latter half of 09 Dec.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels with a slight\nchance for C-class flares 08-10 Dec.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to\nmoderate 08-10 Dec, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is\nexpected to continue at background.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, reflected\nambient conditions. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 2 to 5 nT\nand the Bz component underwent mainly weak deviations. Solar wind speed\naveraged 350-400 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive with\nbrief excursions into a negative solar sector.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe solar wind is anticipated to continue as primarily a slow\nregime on 08 Dec. Elevated conditions are likely 09-10 Dec with the\ncombined influence of a weak, negative polarity CH and arrival of a CME\nfrom the 07 Dec event.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet 08 Dec. G1\n(Minor) storm conditions are likely 09-10 Dec due to the combined\neffects of a weak, negative polarity CH and the arrival of a CME from\nthe 07 Dec event.\n\nActual time was taken from simulation at:\nhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction\n\nSpace Weather Message Code: WATA50\nSerial Number: 64\nIssue Time: 2020 Dec 08 1506 UTC\n\nWATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted\n\nHighest Storm Level Predicted by Day:\nDec 09: G1 (Minor) Dec 10: G3 (Strong) Dec 11: G2 (Moderate)\n\nTHIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT\n\nNOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at\nwww.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation\n\nPotential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.\nInduced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.\nSpacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.\nNavigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.\nRadio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.\nAurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-08T15:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T19:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.12", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2020-12-07 16:24:00\nSource Longtitude: 12\nSource Latitude: -21\nInitial Shock Speed: 1382 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 380 km/s\nDuration Time: 2.0 hr\n\nOutput results: The shock will reach our Earth at 2020-12-09 19:44:35" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-08T15:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.08", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2020-12-07 16:24:00\nInitial Shock Speed: 1383 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 380 km/s\nDuration Time: 2.0 hr\n\nOutput Results: The shock will reach our Earth at 2012-12-09 22:00:01" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-08T16:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T06:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.57", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2020-12-08T18:23:20Z\n## Message ID: 20201208-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20201207-AL-002). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Mars between about 2020-12-09T21:38Z and 2020-12-10T20:32Z (average arrival 2020-12-10T06:38Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2020-12-09T00:55Z and 2020-12-09T14:45Z (average arrival 2020-12-09T06:54Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 76% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-12-08_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074/20201207_162400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-12-08_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074/20201207_162400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-12-08_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074/20201207_162400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-12-08_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074/20201207_162400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-12-08_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074/20201207_162400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-12-08_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074/20201207_162400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074_Mars_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-12-08_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074/Detailed_results_20201207_162400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX074.txt\n###\n\nNASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-09T01:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.42", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2020-12-07 18:37\nRadial velocity (km/s):1489.67\nLongitude (deg):6.2\nLatitude (deg):-12.2\nHalf-angular width (deg):40.5\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-35755.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-09T15:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 87.8, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.83333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-35755.45", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2020-11-29T13:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2020-11-29T13:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2020-12-01T21:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "An eruption from the active region beyond the southeastern limb of the Earth-facing disk resulted in a M4.4 flare that peaked at 2020-11-29T13:11Z. This eruption resulted in a CME in the SE of STEREO-A COR2A (partial halo) and in the east of SOHO C2 starting around 2020-11-29T13:24Z; the CME front can later be seen in SOHO C3 at 2020-11-29T13:30Z. (NOTE: The time of this CME has been updated to 2020-11-29T13:24Z as that is the first available image the CME is seen in STEREO-A COR2; the originally input time was 2020-11-29T13:00Z.) Lan Jian - I think there may be a shock near 21UT on Dec 1. DSCOVR data show sharp increases of Np, V, and Tp at the time. After the shock, there seems to be some smooth magnetic field rotations during about 02-20 UT on Dec 2. However, the peak total field strength is only about 7 nT, quite weak. The Bz south reaches only about 3 nT.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2020-11-30T08:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.00", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-11-29Y16:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1400 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 70E\nLatitude (deg): 13S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 55 \n\nNotes: [Edited arrival time] The CME was from near the southeast horizon from M4 flare, possibly a larger flare in reality due to its partially hidden location. A fast CME was clearly visible on SOHO C2/C3 and Stereo A COR2. The bulk of the CME will miss Earth. However, an EIT shock wave was seen in AIA 193 imagery passing through the corona on the Earth-facing disc. A shock front also appeared on SOHO C3, suggesting Earth will receive a peripheral shock front from the CME, but not the CME Sheath or magnetic cloud. Quite low confidence in timing or strength.\nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC team." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-11-30T09:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.30", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0942 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe M4 flare peaking at 13:11UT December 29, originating from an unnumbered\nregion at the East limb, was associated with a type II radio burst and EUV\nwave.\n\nIn SoHO/LASCO C2 a corresponding CME is visible from around 13:25UT (the\ntrue time of emergence in C2 view must be in the data gap between 12:48UT\nand 13:25UT). The CME is directed well toward to the East of the Sun-Earth\nline with a projected speed of around 1500 km/s. While the bulk is directed\noff the Sun-Earth line the associated shock wave leaves an asymmetric full\nhalo signature in SoHO/LASCO C2 and C3 imagery.\n\nThe bulk of the CME is hence not expected to arrive to Earth but a glancing\nblow and arrival of the shock wave is quite possible. That is expected late\nDecember 1 or early December 2.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n\n________________________________________\nFrom: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSent: Monday, November 30, 2020 4:52 AM\nTo: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740)\nSubject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert\n\nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2020-12-02T00:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 3\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 50" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CAT-PUMA", "submissionTime" : "2020-11-30T10:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-02T05:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.23", "predictionNote" : "This is a prediction for the CME at 2020-11-29 13:25 UT\n\nCME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 & C3:\nOnset time: 2020-11-29 13:25 UT\nAngular width: 360\nAverage speed: 1639.6 km/s\nFinal speed: 1414.7 km/s\nMass: 9.70e15 g (average value from the model)\nMPA: 85.3\n\nSolar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft:\nBz: 1.843 nT\nAlpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041 # No observation, use average value in the model\nFlow Speed: 372.425 km/s\nFlow Latitude: 3.932 degree\nPressure: 0.223 nPa\nFlow Longitude: 6.343 degree\nBx: -3.407 nT\nTemperature: 31645.42 K" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-11-30T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-03T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.50", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2020 Nov 30 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached moderate levels today with a long duration M4\nflare observed at 29/1311 UTC. This flare originated from a region just\nbeyond the SE limb. Associated with this event was a Type II (765 km/s)\nradio sweep, a 240 sfu Tenflare, and a CME off the east limb first\nobserved at 29/1325 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery (estimated velocity\n1393 km/s). An EIT wave could be seen in SUVI 195 imagery beginning at\n29/1355 UTC and a faint, asymmetric halo shock could be seen in\nSOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 29/1418 UTC.\n\nModelling of the CME indicated a miss, however the model didn't\nencapsulate the full extent of the shock and the possibility remains for\na potential shock enhancement/glancing blow on 01-02 Dec.\n\nNo significant changes were noted in the spotted regions on the visible\ndisk. No additional CMEs were observed during the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for further\nM-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class\nflares (R3 Strong or greater) on 30 Nov-02 Dec.\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today with a\npeak flux of 1,660 pfu observed at 29/1410 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux was at background levels, although a small bump was observed\nat the 10 MeV energy level after 30/0800 UTC.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to\nmoderate levels on 30 Nov-02 Dec. There is a slight chance for a greater\nthan 10 MeV proton event (S1-minor) due to the potential for further\nsignificant flare activity from an unnumbered region rotating around the\nSE limb.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels through about\n30/0700 UTC when parameters became enhanced. Solar wind speeds increased\nfrom about 425 km/s to about 525 km/s, total field briefly increased to\n12 nT and the Bz component was mostly southward to -10 nT. Phi angle was\noriented in a predominately positive sector throughout the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on 30 Dec. A\nshock enhancement/glancing blow from the 29 Nov CME is possible on 01-02\nDec causing an initial enhancement to solar wind speed, however the main\nbody of the ejecta was not Earth-directed.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Dec.\nUnsettled to active periods are possible on 01-02 Dec with the possible\narrival of the aforementioned shock enhancement/glancing blow from the\n29 Nov CME.\n\nArrival prediction taken from:\nhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-11-30T21:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-02T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.42", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Mars, OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2020-11-30T21:35:44Z\n## Message ID: 20201130-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20201129-AL-001). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars, OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2020-12-02T22:37Z, OSIRIS-REx at 2020-11-30T19:37Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2020-11-30T19:37Z, and STEREO A at 2020-12-01T09:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a possible glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2020-12-02T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor). \n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are (event upgraded/downgraded to O-type):\n\nStart time of the event: 2020-11-29T13:25Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1336 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 58 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -75/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001) is associated with M4.4 flare with ID 2020-11-29T12:34:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2020-11-29T13:11Z and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2020-11-30T04:26:00-SEP-001 (see notification(s) 20201130-AL-001, 20201130-AL-002).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2020-11-30T22:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-01T00:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.00", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1400.0 km/s \nu_r = 1479.32\nAcceleration: -4.98712\nDuration in seconds: 125137.21\nDuration in days: 1.4483473\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -4.99 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 855.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/12/2020 Time: 00:10 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2020-11-30T22:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-01T21:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.75", "predictionNote" : "Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2020]\n\n% Compiled module: EAM_V3.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 1400.0 km/s \nu_r = 805.800\nAcceleration: -0.783294\nDuration in seconds: 200887.68\nDuration in days: 2.3250889\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.78 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 648.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/12/2020 Time: 21:13 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-12-01T21:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-02T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-0.37", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 20201129T1442\nRadial velocity (km/s):2140.90\nLongitude (deg):-13.5000\nLatitude (deg):-7.70000\nHalf-angular width (deg):47.5000\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-02T01:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-35951.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-12-02T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-35951.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2020-10-27T03:39:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2020-10-27T03:39Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2020-11-01T08:41Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is associated with a filament eruption from N30E10 of the Earth-facing disk shortly after 2020.10.26T22:30Z and can be seen in all SDO imagery. The strongest darkening can be seen in SDO 193 and 211 between 2020.10.26T22:30Z and 2020.10.27T01:33Z.\nTeresa Nieves-Chinchilla: I see clear flux rope signatures on Nov 1-2. The whole structure duration is 11/01 ~12:00 UT to 11/02 ~6:00 UT. The maximum magnetic field strength would be less than 10 nT, but it is higher than the average of the ambient magnetic field. There is a smooth and coherent change in the magnetic field direction with signatures of internal complexity. Low temperature, density and signatures of expansion in the solar wind bulk velocity. This is probably a streamer blowout.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-10-27T22:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-11-01T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "105.73", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-10-28T12:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-11-01T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "92.17", "predictionNote" : "A filament erupted close to central meridian (around N30 in latitude) at\n22:00 UT on 26 October. The related CME could possibly arrive to the Earth\non 1 November (estimated time 01:00 UT), since the speed is low (around 300\nkm/s) a strong geomagnetic impact is not expected." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2020-10-28T14:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-10-30T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : -73, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2020-10-31T07:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-41.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "90.37", "predictionNote" : "# AlertIssued PredictStart PredictPeak EL GX DST Pr Sr Vel Status CID Bz\n 202010281300 202010301500 202010310700 60 G3 -073 03 NN 750 ME C044 S" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2020-10-28T15:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-10-30T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "89.18", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-10-27T13:30Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 420 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 10E\nLatitude (deg): 2N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 29 deg\n\nNotes: The CME appeared as an asymmetrical halo on SOHO C2/C3, and quite faint on Stereo A. Analysis gave speeds between about 370 and 450 km/s. WSA ENLIL suggests an arrival time around 1800-2100Z, the ensemble spread suggests plus or minus 9 hours. May give Active periods, lower chance (20%) of Kp=5.\nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2020-10-28T17:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-10-29T18:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-61.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "87.28", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2020-10-27 03:39\nSource Longtitude: -10\nSource Latitude: 2\nInitial Shock Speed: 420 km/s \nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 400 km/s \nDuration Time: 0.5 hr (default)\n\nOutput results: The shock will arrive at Earth at 2020-10-29 18:45:03UT." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2020-10-28T17:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-10-30T23:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-32.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "87.22", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2020-10-27 03:39\nInitial Shock Speed: 420 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 400 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.5 hr (default)\n\nOutput Results: The shock will arrive at Earth at 2020-10-30 23:57:21UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2020-10-29T07:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-10-30T20:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-36.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.18", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 420.0 km/s \nu_r = 472.856\nAcceleration: -0.0861901\nDuration in seconds: 320564.62\nDuration in days: 3.7102386\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.09 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 445.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 30/10/2020 Time: 20:41 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-10-31T00:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-32.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-36684.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-10-30T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-36684.25", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2020-07-19T09:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2020-07-19T09:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2020-07-24T00:18Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2020-07-20T12:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-24T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "83.63", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-07-19T22:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 300 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 6E\nLatitude (deg): 10N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 24 deg \n\nNotes: There appear to be two CMEs from the weekend (18-19 July) in imagery, the first from the SW quadrant and likely missing Earth, the second one shows clearly on Stereo A coronagraph, and with a weak asymmetrical halo on SOHO C2 slightly towards NE. Modelled in Enlil to arrive around 24/0000 UTC, but background solar wind speed is probably too high in the model, which suggests a slower transit speed and arrival time more likely around midday on 24th. \nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC AMS" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2020-07-21T08:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-23T13:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.30", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 250.0 km/s \nu_r = 298.27 km/s\nAcceleration: 0.527425\nDuration in seconds: 378160.49\nDuration in days: 4.3768576\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.53 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 497.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/07/2020 Time: 13:02 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-07-21T15:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-24T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.07", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/15674/1\nModel Inputs:\n2020-07-19T09:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=278.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2020-07-19T21:04Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2020-07-24T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200719_210400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-24T00:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-39092.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-24T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-39092.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2020-07-09T01:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2020-07-09T01:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2020-07-13T20:35Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This event is associated with a filament eruption visible between S30E05 and S30W25 in SDO AIA 193 imagery starting around 2020-07-08T20:32Z. Opening field lines corresponding to this event can also be seen on the SW limb of STEREO A EUVI 195 starting at 2020-07-08T09:05Z. The CME appears as a gradual brightening in the western streamer of STEREO A COR2 and later as a partial halo (southward) in SOHO LASCO C2/C3.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-07-10T05:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-14T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "87.08", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2020-07-10 11:37\nRadial velocity (km/s):121.694\nLongitude (deg):20.7000\nLatitude (deg):-15.1000\nHalf-angular width (deg):24.0000\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2020-07-10T08:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-13T21:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.08", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 121.7 km/s \nu_r = 166.5 km/s\nAcceleration: 0.944217\nDuration in seconds: 415285.79\nDuration in days: 4.8065485\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.94 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 558.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/07/2020 Time: 21:21 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-07-15T16:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-14T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-43.70", "predictionNote" : "The simulation shows ambient solar wind increase near Earth between 2020-07-13T18:00Z and 2020-07-14T06:00Z.\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/15641/1\nModel Inputs:\n2020-07-09T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=80.0, Lat.=-2.0, Speed=323.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2020-07-09T16:43Z\n2020-07-09T01:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=12.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=125.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2020-07-10T05:32Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2020-07-14T03:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-14T04:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-39336.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-14T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-39336.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2020-07-05T17:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2020-07-05T17:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2020-07-09T15:50Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The start time of the CME was changed as seen on SOHO LASCO. There were two CMEs, an earlier one headed towards STA that overlaps with this event that was seen around 2020-07-05T14:24Z. CME arrival date/time is not certain as there are two potential flux ropes. From Lan Jian “First CME short and weak, arrived at around 20:45 UT on July 8. Another flux rope seen in the second half day of July 9, with slightly stronger peak magnetic field strength around 15:50UT.”", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-07-07T04:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-09T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.83", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 20200705T23:31\nRadial velocity (km/s): 366\nLongitude (deg): -23\nLatitude (deg): -1.7\nHalf-angular width (deg): 12\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2020-07-07T08:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-09T13:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.83", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 366.0 km/s \nu_r = 417.4 km/s\nAcceleration: 0.116302\nDuration in seconds: 344227.79\nDuration in days: 3.9841180\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.12 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 457.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/07/2020 Time: 13:37 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-07-15T16:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-09T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 1.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-144.37", "predictionNote" : "We noted a miniscule increase in parameters on the ENLIL timeline around 2020-07-09T06:00Z.\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/15632/1\nModel Inputs:\n2020-07-05T14:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-73.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=385.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2020-07-06T02:42Z\n2020-07-05T17:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=505.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2020-07-06T03:42Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2020-07-09T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=1\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2020-07-09T02:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-09T10:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 1.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-39437.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-07-09T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 1.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-39437.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2020-05-26T00:39:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2020-05-26T00:39Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2020-05-29T22:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Speculative source location is a brightening at the edge of the northern extension of the southern polar coronal hole. A faint ripple is visible in the western streamer in C2/C3 but this was not used for measuring. Shock arrival time description from Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: I think it is a flux rope followed by a high speed stream. I can see a magnetic field red-component rotation with polarity south-to-north. The blue y-component is mostly south. The solar wind speed within the structure is increasing, a signature of compression and also consistent with the changes in the red z-magnetic field component at the front of the structure. The structure is followed by an increase in magnetic field, proton temperature and solar wind speed.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-05-26T17:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-05-30T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.27", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/15537/1\nModel Inputs:\n2020-05-26T00:39:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=266.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2020-05-26T15:13Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2020-05-30T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =12.0 (+- 8 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2020-05-28T08:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-05-30T08:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.50", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 266.0 km/s \nu_r = 314.7 km/s\nAcceleration: 0.472655\nDuration in seconds: 372394.37\nDuration in days: 4.3101200\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.47 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 490.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 30/05/2020 Time: 08:05 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2020-05-28T08:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-05-29T02:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.02", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2020-05-26T00:39:00\nSource Longtitude: 10\nSource Latitude: -5\nInitial Shock Speed: 266 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 329 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.5 hr\n\nOutput results: The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2020-05-29 02:26:49UT." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2020-05-28T09:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-05-31T04:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "30.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.97", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2020-05-26 00:39:00 UT\nInitial Shock Speed: 266 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 329 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.5 hr\n\nOutput Results: The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2020-05-31 04:14:47 UT." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-05-30T03:41Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-40414.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-05-30T04:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-40414.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2020-03-02T20:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2020-03-02T20:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2020-03-06T14:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: The in-situ observations exhibit two coherent magnetic structures with monotonic changes in the magnetic field profile. Possibly, they could be the traces of streamer blow outs. Remote sensing observations are required to fully identify and characterize the structures. The first one arrives on march 6, around 14 hrs UT and last for 10 hrs. It is a coherent structure without clear rotation in the magnetic field rotation but low temperature. The second structure displays a magnetic field rotation and low temperature flux rope signatures. It starts around 14 hrs UT and last for 13 hrs.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2020-03-03T11:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-03-07T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.15", "predictionNote" : "2020-03-02T15:54:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=20.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=285.0, HalfAngle=16.0, Time21.5=2020-03-03T12:31Z\nModel Outputs:\nEarth Impact:\n(Glancing Blow) Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2020-03-07T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\nPossible Kp index:\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)135=4\n(kp)180=4\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200303_123100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2020-03-03T18:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-03-07T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.00", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-03-03T05:49Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 240 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 22W\nLatitude (deg): 01S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 28 deg \n\nNotes: Faint on SOHO Lasco C2/C3, but clearer on Stereo A with evidence of a partial halo stealth CME. There is no clear source region in SDO imagery. It is travelling slower than the background solar wind speed so may not be discernible in ACE/DSCVR solar wind data. Low confidence.\nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2020-03-03T21:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-03-06T21:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.50", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 320.0 km/s \nu_r = 370.2 km/s\nAcceleration: 0.283230\nDuration in seconds: 349590.35\nDuration in days: 4.0461846\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.28 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 469.2 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 06/03/2020 Time: 21:06 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2020-03-04T05:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-03-06T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.12", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvoHI", "submissionTime" : "2020-03-04T14:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-03-10T06:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 25.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 25.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 1.8, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "88.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.25", "predictionNote" : "ELEvoHI run can be viewed at https://helioforecast.space/cme/2020_march_02_0\n\nELEvoHI ensemble prediction is based on STEREO-A HI beacon data. Measurements are given below, first column is hours from 2020-03-02T00:00, second column is elongation.\n\n30.9 4.3\n35.1 6.8\n37.0 8.0\n39.1 9.2\n50.8 14.2\n53.0 15.0\n55.1 16.0\n\nParameter range for ensemble simulation:\nangular half width (within ecliptic plane): 30 - 50°\ndirection of motion (derived from fixed-phi fitting): 126 - 146° (relative to STEREO-A)\ninverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.4 - 0.8 (1 means circular frontal shape)\n\nFrom the HI measurements and within the given ranges of the CME frontal shape parameters ELEvoHI produces 275 runs, of which 5 predict an Earth arrival (~1.8%).\n\nMISS!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-03-07T15:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 13.9333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "25.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-42438.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-03-07T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-42438.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2020-02-28T17:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2020-02-28T17:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2020-03-04T18:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2020-03-03T18:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-03-04T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.00", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-02-29T12:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 325 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 04W\nLatitude (deg): 06N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 25 deg\n\nNotes: A partial halo CME, very weak on SOHO Lasco C2/C3, but clearer on Stereo A with an expected Earth directed component. It is forecast slightly slower than the background solar wind, so may not be clearly discernible in the solar wind parameters upon arrival at ACE/DSCVR.\nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2020-03-03T20:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-03-04T01:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.50", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 230.0 km/s \nu_r = 277.7 km/s\nAcceleration: 0.595017\nDuration in seconds: 376234.53\nDuration in days: 4.3545663\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.60 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 501.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 04/03/2020 Time: 01:30 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-03-04T06:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-42482.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2020-03-04T06:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-42482.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2019-10-25T05:54:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2019-10-25T05:54Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2019-10-29T15:02Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: The magnetic field and plasma parameters exhibit signatures of an ICME - stronger B that the ambient solar wind, expanding structure and low temperature. I would say that this is probably a very beautiful CME-streamer blow-out. You probably did not see any disk signatures, dimming, flares… but this is why it is so slow, weak, and with barely a sheath region or shock.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-10-25T21:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-10-29T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "89.63", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/15128/1\nModel Inputs:\n2019-10-25T05:54:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=262.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2019-10-25T20:56Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2019-10-29T19:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20191025_205600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-10-26T12:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-10-29T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.18", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2019 Oct 26 1247 UTC\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 91026\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 Oct 2019, 1246UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 26 Oct 2019 until 28 Oct 2019)\nSOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2019 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 023\nPREDICTIONS FOR 27 Oct 2019 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 013\nPREDICTIONS FOR 28 Oct 2019 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 007\nCOMMENT: Solar X ray flux remained below B level throughout the period.\nThere are no active regions on disk and X-ray flux is expected to remain at\nbackground levels.\n\nForm around 9:24UT yesterday October 25 onwards a faint slow CME front is\nvisible along the southern Solar limb in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images.\nIt is not believed to be related to the filament eruption reported\nyesterday and its origin remains unclear. In STEREO A COR2 data a\ncorresponding CME is visible from around 6:54 UT onward, directed straight\nWest as seen from STEREO location. Combining these data it seems likely\nthat the CME is Earthbound with an expected arrival time around midnight\nOctober 29/30.\nNo other Earth-directed CME's were detected in coronagraph images.\n\nSolar high energy proton fluxes were at background levels and are expected\nto remain so.\n\nSolar wind speed increased at the start of the period to around 670 km/s\nbefore starting a slow gradual decline to current values of 600 km/s. Total\nmagnetic field was mostly in the 4-6nT range but recently increased to\naround 10nT. Bz was variable over the period but tended to be negative this\nmorning with values down to -6nT and -8.5nT more recently. The phi angle\nwas firmly in the positive sector.\nSolar wind is expected to slowly decline over the next 24-48 hours as the\nhigh speed stream subsides.\n\nGeomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (NOAA Kp 3-4, local K Dourbes\n2-4) with just recently a minor storming episode (NOAA Kp 5 for the 9-12UT\nperiod).\nActive geomagnetic conditions are likely over the next 24-48 hours before\nreturning to unsettled conditions. Initially, isolated periods of minor\ngeomagnetic storms are still possible.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 25 Oct 2019\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 069\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 031\nAK WINGST : 021\nESTIMATED AP : 026\nESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES\nNONE\nEND\n\nBT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2019-10-27T10:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-10-29T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.03", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 25/2047UTC\nRadial velocity (km/s): 287 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 2W\nLatitude (deg): 8S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 27 degs \n\nNotes: Clearly visible on Stereo A, and weakly visible on SOHO lasco C2 diff. images. C3 data not available at present in the CAT tool. It may become embedded in the next high speed stream from -CH77 and difficult to detect a signature in the solar wind data. Initial WSA Enlil modelling suggests an arrival time of 29/1200Z, but some of the latest Ensemble members push this out to 30/1200Z. Therefore 29/2100Z +/-9 hrs is our best guess at present, with low confidence. \nSpace weather advisor: AMS" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2019-10-27T11:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-10-29T11:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.03", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n**************************************************************************************\nMost pr. speed = 275.0 km/s \nu_r = 323.9 km/s\nAcceleration: 0.44 m/s^2\nDuration in seconds: 364050.73\nDuration in days: 4.2135501\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.44 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 484.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 29/10/2019 Time: 11:01 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-10-29T18:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-45533.90", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-10-29T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-45533.90", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2019-09-17T03:05:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2019-09-17T03:05Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2019-09-21T03:39Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Clear increase in velocity, density and temperature at ACE, followed by a flux rope signature beginning at 20:24Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2019-09-18T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-09-20T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.15", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 16/2300Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 360\nLongitude (deg): 20E\nLatitude (deg): 9N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 10deg\n\nNotes: A narrow CME from filament eruption around 16/0900Z with 'footprint' changes visible in SDO 193. It is weakly visible on SOHO C2/C3 and Stereo A coronagraphs. It is hard to analyse and very unlikely to see any significant impacts at Earth. The ENLIL model has it mainly passing to the east, but some of the ensemble members suggest a noticeable arrival at Earth. Confidence is low that it will be detected at Earth. \nSpace weather advisor: AMS" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2019-09-20T08:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-09-21T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.60", "predictionNote" : "initial shock speed: 360 km/s\nsource location: N09E20\nsolar wind speed: 400 km/s\nduration time: 0.5 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-09-20T21:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-46457.28", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-09-20T21:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-46457.28", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2019-05-13T16:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2019-05-13T16:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2019-05-16T16:10Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Signature is very weak and difficult to discern exact time. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: Around ~21 hrs on the May 16, there is a monotonic change in the magnetic field direction that can be associated with a flux rope signature.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-13T20:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-17T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : -31, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.17", "predictionNote" : ": Product: Dst_alert_status\n: Issued: 13-May-2019 20:00:01 UTC\n: JDIssued: 2458617.33336\n: Number_of_Data_Records: 1\n: Missing_data: 9999\n: Source: SET Stream B (Anemomilos) algorithm\n: version: 3.46\n# Prepared by Space Environment Technologies/Space Weather Division\n# Contact: spacenvironment@spacenvironment.net\n# http://www.spacewx.com\n#\n# Forecast_summary_metadata:\n# AlertIssued is the alert issue time\n# PredictStart is the event predicted start time\n# PredictPeak is the event predicted peak time\n# EL is the wait time in minutes before issuing another alert\n# GX is the alert level on NOAA G scale ranging from G0 to G5\n# G4, G5: WARNING: is issued when a hazardous event is occurring,\n# is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring.\n# A warning is used for very active conditions posing a threat\n# to life or property.\n# G3: ADVISORY: is issued in active to very active conditions\n# that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution\n# is not exercised, it could lead to situations that may threaten\n# life and/or property.\n# G2: WATCH: is issued when the risk of a hazardous event has increased\n# significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is\n# still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead-time in\n# active conditions so that those who need to set their plans in\n# motion can do so.\n# G1: ALERT: is issued when an event threshold is crossed. It contains\n# information that is available at the time of issue.\n# G0: MONITORING: is issued when the geomagnetic conditions are being\n# actively monitored with information that is available at the\n# time of issue.\n# DST is the predicted peak (deepest perturbation) of event in nT\n# Pr is the % probability of occurrence of event at epoch\n# Sr is the source of forecast (daily Probability (GP or SP), Solar Event (SO), or None (NN))\n# Vel is the velocity of the ejecta leaving the solar surface in km/sec\n# Status of the combined predicted Dst events relative to NOAA G-scale\n# AC = all clear (>-10 nT) (G0 monitoring)\n# UN = unsettled (-33 to -10 nT) (G1 alert)\n# SE = small event predicted (-33 to -48 nT) (G2 watch)\n# ME = medium event predicted (-48 to -198 nT) (G3 advisory)\n# LE = large event predicted (-198 to -350 nT) (G4 warning)\n# LX = very large event predicted (-350 to -400 nT) (G5 warning)\n# CID is the Class ID for the event composed of a letter flare class and Xhf magnitude\n# C = small flare class\n# M = medium flare class\n# X = large flare class\n# 0-300 = Xhf magnitude of event\n# Bz is the estimated dominant Bz direction at Earth (N = northward, S = southward)\n#\n# AlertIssued PredictStart PredictPeak EL GX DST Pr Sr Vel Status CID Bz\n201905132000 201905132200 201905171500 60 G1 -031 02 NN 750 UN C027 S" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-14T00:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-16T19:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.15", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/14755/1\nModel Inputs:\n2019-05-13T16:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=594.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2019-05-13T21:49Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2019-05-16T19:15Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =22.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.2\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_214900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-14T01:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-17T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.88", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:20190514T00:35\nRadial velocity (km/s):442.458\nLongitude (deg):13.7\nLatitude (deg):-13\nHalf-angular width (deg):17.5\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-14T05:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-16T11:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.43", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2019-05-13 21:49 \n - Time at C2: 2019-05-13 16:09 \n - Radial speed: 594.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 27 deg\n - Eruption location: S13W10\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 584.20 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2019-05-16 11:36 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.45 hours)\n\nPredicted Kp: 4.0 - 5.0" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-14T06:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-16T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.73", "predictionNote" : "Lat -2\nLon 17\ncone 42\nSpeed 491" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-14T08:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-16T20:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.17", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n**************************************************************************************\nVo = 594.0 km/s\nu_r = 651.6 km/s\nAcceleration: -0.786 m/s^2\nDuration in seconds: 275439.57\nDuration in days: 3.1879580\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.79 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 434.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/05/2019 Time: 20:39 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-14T10:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-16T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.25", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2019 May 16 1230 UTC\n#-------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 90516\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 May 2019, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 May 2019 until 18 May 2019)\nSOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 16 May 2019 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 019\nPREDICTIONS FOR 17 May 2019 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 024\nPREDICTIONS FOR 18 May 2019 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 007\nCOMMENT: Alpha region NOAA 2741 produced a C2.0 flare peaking at 19:24 UT\non May 15. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours, especially from\nregion 2741, is estimated at 40%.\n\nNo Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available\ncoronagraphic imagery.\n\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24\nhours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.\n\nThe solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 400 and\n460 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 420 km/s. The\nInterplanetary Magnetic Field was directed predominantly away from the Sun,\nand its magnitude varied between about 2 and 10 nT, with current values\naround 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT for extended periods. Enhanced solar\nwind conditions are expected in the next days, with the expected arrival of\nthe May 11, 12 and 13 CMEs.\n\nQuiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA\nKp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to\nmoderate storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-6) are possible on May 16 and 17,\ndue to the expected arrival of the May 11, 12 and 13 CMEs. A return to\nquiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels is expected on May 18.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 15 May 2019\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 025\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 074\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 014\nAK WINGST : 008\nESTIMATED AP : 008\nESTIMATED ISN : 020, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES\nNONE\nEND\n\nBT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-14T11:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-16T17:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.15", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-14T12:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-16T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.42", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2019-05-13T16:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 590 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 20W\nLatitude (deg): 9S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 29 deg \n\nNotes: There was some differences in the speed depending on the longitude and half angle used. The model run suggests it will begin to catch up with the previous CME with space cleared of matter. We are fairly confident it will arrive at Earth, but it may be hard to attribute or determine arrival time with multiple CMEs en-route to Earth. Space weather advisor: AMS" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-15T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-17T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.67", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2019 May 15 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was very low. Region 2740 (N08W67, Axx/alpha) continued\nto slowly decay as it rotated closer to the west limb. Region 2741\n(N06W30, Hsx/alpha) changed little and remained stable. No new\nEarth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (15-17\nMay), with a slight chance for C-class flares on days one and two while\nRegion 2740 is still present on the visible disk.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased to normal to moderate\nlevels due to CME arrival effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux\nremained unchanged at background values.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to vary from normal to\nhigh levels all three days (15-17 May) due to recent elevated solar wind\nspeeds and effects resultant from CME arrivals. The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux is expected to maintain at background levels.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were indicative of a likely, unobserved CME\narrival; preceded by possible CIR influences and south polar CH HSS\nconnection. Total IMF strength unsteadily increased to a maximum value\nof 15 nT by 14/0231 UTC. Field strength remained at similar levels,\nbefore it decreased after 14/0630 UTC. The Bz component swung prolonged\nand pronounced southward from about 14/0300-0630 UTC. Total field\nstrength and Bz signatures during this time frame, and particularly\nafterwards, were suggestive of CME arrival and passage. Solar wind speed\nincreased unsteadily from around 460-475 at the start of the period, to\nnear 575 km/s by around 14/0800 UTC. Solar wind speed slowly and\nunsteadily decreased afterwards. The phi angle was variable between\nsectors.\n\nWhile the nature of what transpired in the solar wind this reporting\nperiod is highly speculative and uncertain, density signatures and\ntemperature profiles also corroborate transient arrival and passage.\n\n.Forecast...\nAnalysis suggests the transient influences from 14 May may be from\nan unobserved, earlier CME, and may not be the early arrival of the\nCME events from late on 10 May. Because of the uncertainty involved from\nwhat transpired on 14 May and what was originally anticipated, the solar\nwind environment is still expected to become enhanced and disturbed\nagain on day one (15 May) with the anticipated arrival of the CME events\nfrom late on 10 May. Later on day two (16 May) another CME observed on\n12 May is expected to arrive, further enhancing solar wind parameters.\nEarly on day three (17 May), yet another CME that took place on 13 May,\nis expected to effect the environment and cause another disturbance in\nthe solar wind field.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field responded with storm levels up to G3 (Strong)\nlevels in reaction to the disturbed and enhanced solar wind environment\nfrom 14/0300-0900 UTC. The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active\nafterwards in response to the variable, but still enhanced solar wind\nstate.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels, with a\nchance for G2 (Moderate) levels on day one (15 May) in reaction to CME\neffects. Day two (16 May) is likely to respond with storm levels up to\nG2, with a chance for G3 (Strong) due to expected reactions from another\nCME. Day three (17 may) is likely to experience up to G1 storm levels,\nwith continuing chance for G2 conditions in response to yet another CME.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2019 May 15 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale\nG3).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 15-May 17 2019 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown May 15-May 17 2019\n\n May 15 May 16 May 17\n00-03UT 4 3 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 3 4 5 (G1)\n06-09UT 4 3 4 \n09-12UT 5 (G1) 3 3 \n12-15UT 5 (G1) 4 3 \n15-18UT 4 5 (G1) 3 \n18-21UT 4 6 (G2) 2 \n21-00UT 3 5 (G1) 2 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely May 15 and May 17\ndue to anticipated CME arrival. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is\nlikely May 16 due to anticipated CME arrival.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 15-May 17 2019\n\n May 15 May 16 May 17\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for May 15-May 17 2019\n\n May 15 May 16 May 17\nR1-R2 1% 1% 1%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-15T15:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-19T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : -66, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2019-05-19T06:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "55.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.92", "predictionNote" : "Two events created from extended flare/CME at 201905131600 from N02W06 event. NOAA G3 scale and combined DST -66 nT predicted. Two flux ropes predicted that merge, one with 517 km/s and one with 352 km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-17T02:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 66.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.625, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-49516.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-16T19:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-49516.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2019-05-11T02:39:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2019-05-11T02:39Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2019-05-13T22:06Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source of this signature is somewhat unclear. It could be associated with the arrival of a combination of 2 CMEs that started on 2019-05-10T19:09Z and 2019-05-11T02:39Z. From Dr. Lan Jian: The flux ropes separated by sharp boundaries could be due to the interaction of multiple CMEs. From the in-situ observations and Enlil modeling results, Earth was in the rarefaction before the CME arrived, this may be why the CMEs reached Earth so fast.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-11T11:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-15T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "30.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.00", "predictionNote" : "Lat:-2\nLon:7\nCone:29\nVelocity: 378 Km/S" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-11T11:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-16T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "56.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.60", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2019 May 11 1130 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nIn the vicinity of Catania group 16 (NOAA AR 2740), located near disk centre, two\nmaterial eruptions can be seen in EUV images. The first around 18:25UT and the second\naround 23:55UT. Coronagraph images from STEREO A also confirm two corresponding CMEs.\nIn currently available coronagraph images from Earth perspective the signatures are\nless clear. SoHO/LASCO C2 shows, from around 3:02UT, a mainly North-East bound CME of\nwhich the angular extent is hard to estimate given the faint signature. It could\nhowever be classified as partial halo and correspondingly the presence of an Earth\ndirected component should be considered. With the initiation parameters unclear, the\ninterplay between both CME's is hard to assess. Speed is best estimated from STEREO A\ndata and is for both CMEs low, 300-400 km/s. Based on these initiation parameters, a\npossible arrival of these CME's is not expected before noon, May 15 and 7:00UT, May\n16 respectively.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-11T14:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-15T10:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "36.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.43", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/14741/1\nModel Inputs:\n2019-05-11T02:39:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=362.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2019-05-11T12:18Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2019-05-15T10:15Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =21.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.7\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_121900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-11T20:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-15T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "29.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.52", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2019-05-11T12:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 500\nLongitude (deg): 8W\nLatitude (deg): 6N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 30\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: AG/MA" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-12T01:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-15T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "32.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.18", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):400\nLongitude (deg):W04\nLatitude (deg):N02\nHalf-angular width (deg):29\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-12T03:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-15T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.10", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2019 May 12 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at very low levels. Region 2740 (N08W27, Hax/alpha)\nand Region 2741 (N06E11, Hsx/alpha) were both stable and absent of\nsignificant flare activity. The CMEs that were mentioned in the previous\ndiscussion product were analyzed and it was determined that they each\ncontain an Earth-directed component. Enlil model output suggests an\narrival time on 15 May.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be very low on 12-14 May, with a slight\nchance for an isolated C-class flare.\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak\nflux of 7,580 pfu at 11/2345 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux\nremained at background values.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on\n12-14 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue\nunchanged at background levels.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2019 May 13 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 13-May 15 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown May 13-May 15 2019\n\n May 13 May 14 May 15\n00-03UT 2 2 2 \n03-06UT 1 2 2 \n06-09UT 2 1 4 \n09-12UT 1 1 5 (G1)\n12-15UT 1 1 4 \n15-18UT 1 1 4 \n18-21UT 2 1 4 \n21-00UT 1 2 4 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 15 May due to the\nanticipated arrival of a CME from 11 May.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 13-May 15 2019\n\n May 13 May 14 May 15\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for May 13-May 15 2019\n\n May 13 May 14 May 15\nR1-R2 1% 1% 1%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast.\n\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters reflected persistent transient influence. Wind\nspeed was steady ranging between 330-360 km/s. Total field reached a\npeak of 12 nT. The Bz component was negative for the majority of the\nreporting period with a low value of -11 nT. Phi angle shifted from\nnegative to positive at approximately 11/0615 UTC.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe solar wind environment is expected to reflect continued transient\ninfluence on days one and two (12-13 May). Near background solar wind\nconditions are likely to return on day three (14 May).\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm\nlevels due to transient effects.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 12\nMay, and quiet to unsettled levels on 13 May due to persistent transient\ninfluence. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 14 May." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-12T10:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-14T23:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "25.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.10", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n**************************************************************************************\nVo = 380.0 km/s\nu_r = 431.8 km/s\nAcceleration: 0.065 m/s^2\nDuration in seconds: 337800.92\nDuration in days: 3.9097329\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.06 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 453.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 14/05/2019 Time: 23:50 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CAT-PUMA", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-13T19:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-14T10:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "2.77", "predictionNote" : "This is a prediction for the CME at 2019-05-11T04:36\nThe angular width for the CME at 2019-05-11T00:00 is too small for CAT-PUMA to make a prediction.\n\nCME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 (too faint in C3):\nOnset time: 2019-05-11T04:36\nAngular width: 127.6\nAverage speed: 163.4 km/s\nFinal speed: 178.9 km/s\nMass: 3.90e15 g (average value from the model)\nMPA: 327.3\n\nSolar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft:\nBz: -7.355 nT\nAlpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041 # No observation, use average value in the model\nFlow Speed: 359.450 km/s\nFlow Latitude: -0.214\nPressure: 0.747 nPa\nFlow Longitude: 3.971\nBx: 1.650 nT\nTemperature: 27359.303 K" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-15T05:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "31.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-49582.83", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-15T04:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "30.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-49582.83", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2019-05-10T19:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2019-05-10T19:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2019-05-13T22:06Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source of this signature is somewhat unclear. It could be associated with the arrival of a combination of 2 CMEs that started on 2019-05-10T19:09Z and 2019-05-11T02:39Z. From Dr. Lan Jian: The flux ropes separated by sharp boundaries could be due to the interaction of multiple CMEs. From the in-situ observations and Enlil modeling results, Earth was in the rarefaction before the CME arrived, this may be why the CMEs reached Earth so fast.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-11T11:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-15T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "37.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.60", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2019 May 11 1130 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nIn the vicinity of Catania group 16 (NOAA AR 2740), located near disk centre, two\nmaterial eruptions can be seen in EUV images. The first around 18:25UT and the second\naround 23:55UT. Coronagraph images from STEREO A also confirm two corresponding CMEs.\nIn currently available coronagraph images from Earth perspective the signatures are\nless clear. SoHO/LASCO C2 shows, from around 3:02UT, a mainly North-East bound CME of\nwhich the angular extent is hard to estimate given the faint signature. It could\nhowever be classified as partial halo and correspondingly the presence of an Earth\ndirected component should be considered. With the initiation parameters unclear, the\ninterplay between both CME's is hard to assess. Speed is best estimated from STEREO A\ndata and is for both CMEs low, 300-400 km/s. Based on these initiation parameters, a\npossible arrival of these CME's is not expected before noon, May 15 and 7:00UT, May\n16 respectively.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-11T13:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-14T23:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "25.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.40", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/14739/1\nModel Inputs:\n2019-05-10T19:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=471.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2019-05-11T02:31Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2019-05-14T23:36Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =24.6 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.8\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=3\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190511_023100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-12T01:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-15T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "35.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.35", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):302\nLongitude (deg):E17\nLatitude (deg):S08\nHalf-angular width (deg):22\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-12T03:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-15T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.10", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2019 May 12 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at very low levels. Region 2740 (N08W27, Hax/alpha)\nand Region 2741 (N06E11, Hsx/alpha) were both stable and absent of\nsignificant flare activity. The CMEs that were mentioned in the previous\ndiscussion product were analyzed and it was determined that they each\ncontain an Earth-directed component. Enlil model output suggests an\narrival time on 15 May.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be very low on 12-14 May, with a slight\nchance for an isolated C-class flare.\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak\nflux of 7,580 pfu at 11/2345 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux\nremained at background values.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on\n12-14 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue\nunchanged at background levels.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2019 May 13 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 13-May 15 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown May 13-May 15 2019\n\n May 13 May 14 May 15\n00-03UT 2 2 2 \n03-06UT 1 2 2 \n06-09UT 2 1 4 \n09-12UT 1 1 5 (G1)\n12-15UT 1 1 4 \n15-18UT 1 1 4 \n18-21UT 2 1 4 \n21-00UT 1 2 4 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 15 May due to the\nanticipated arrival of a CME from 11 May.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 13-May 15 2019\n\n May 13 May 14 May 15\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for May 13-May 15 2019\n\n May 13 May 14 May 15\nR1-R2 1% 1% 1%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast.\n\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters reflected persistent transient influence. Wind\nspeed was steady ranging between 330-360 km/s. Total field reached a\npeak of 12 nT. The Bz component was negative for the majority of the\nreporting period with a low value of -11 nT. Phi angle shifted from\nnegative to positive at approximately 11/0615 UTC.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe solar wind environment is expected to reflect continued transient\ninfluence on days one and two (12-13 May). Near background solar wind\nconditions are likely to return on day three (14 May).\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm\nlevels due to transient effects.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 12\nMay, and quiet to unsettled levels on 13 May due to persistent transient\ninfluence. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 14 May." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-15T05:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "31.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-49582.83", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-15T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "31.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-49582.83", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2019-05-07T04:42:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2019-05-07T04:42Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2019-05-10T16:55Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This is an extremely faint CME and a possible partial halo seen going to the South East in C3. There could be several potential associated eruptions associated with it, with no definite clarity. Now that C2 images are available, it seems that most probably the CME is associated with a slow lift off of a long N-S oriented filament north from the AR 2740. The CME has an unusually-shaped front (as seen in STA and in difference C3 imagery).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-07T18:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-10T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.65", "predictionNote" : "Lat:8\nLon:-54\nCone:39\nVelocity:271 Km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-07T21:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-10T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "67.28", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2019 May 07 2138 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nIncomplete SoHO LASCO C2 coronagraph data show within the covered\ntimeperiod of 23:48UT May 6 and 00:36UT May 7 that a CME associated with\nthe continuous activity in NOAA region 2740 has an asymetric halo\ncharacter. The CME is primarily directed to the North-East but a faint halo\nfront over the South-West can also be seen during this short period covered\nby LASCO C2 data. The CME is better covered in time by STEREO A COR2 data\nwhere its main core becomes visible starting 16:24UT May 6. A projected\nspeed of around 400 km/s from STEREO A perspective has been estimated.\nGiven the halo character a possible arrival at Earth is estimated in the\nafternoon of May 10. The main direction of the CME is not directly to Earth\nthough, and given also the speed of the CME, associated increases in Solar\nwind speed should remain limited.\nUpdates will be provided if additional measurement data require to modify\nthis estimate.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-08T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-11T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.42", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2019 May 08 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was very low with only B-level enhancements observed\nduring the period. Region 2740 (N08E21, Cso/beta) continued to decay\nslightly, while Region 2741 (N05E59, Hsx/alpha) remained relatively\nunchanged and inactive.\n\nA few additional CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery throughout the\nperiod, but appeared to have easterly, non-Earth directed trajectories.\n\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to remain very low, with a chance for C-class\nflares, during the forecast period (08-10 May) as Region 2740 continues\nto exhibit signs of decay, and Region 2741 remains stable.\n\nThe asymmetric halo CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery at\n06/2348 UTC was analyzed further, and appears to have a likely\nEarth-directed component. Initial indications point to a potential\narrival time at Earth near midday on 11 May, just outside this forecast\nperiod.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels, with a\nmaximum flux of 1,050 pfu at 07/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton\nflux maintained background values.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels\nagain on 08 May, and decrease to moderate levels on 09-10 May due to\nlack of influential activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is\nexpected to continue at background levels all three days.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters remained indicative of a slow regime. Total field\nstrength averaged near 3 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +2/-4\nnT, and solar wind speed decreased to near 325 km/s. The phi angle\nremained in a negative orientation.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe anticipated influences from an isolated negative polarity CH HSS are\nstill possible, but less likely, on 08 May as the coronal hole moves out\nof a geoeffective position. Ambient, background conditions are likely to\nreturn on 09-10 May as any CH HSS influences wane.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a\nchance for an isolated active period, on 08 May in response to possible\nCH HSS influences. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected on 09-10\nMay." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2019-05-08T19:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-11T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.52", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-10T23:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-49660.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-05-10T22:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-49660.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2019-03-20T08:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2019-03-24T20:43Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-20T17:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-23T11:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-33.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "99.33", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2019-03-20T17:23:00Z\n## Message ID: 20190320-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2019-03-20T08:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~541 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 14/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2019-03-24T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2019-03-23T11:11Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001) is associated with the B6.1 flare with ID 2019-03-20T07:05:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2019-03-20T07:14Z and the C4.8 flare with ID 2019-03-20T10:35:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2019-03-20T11:18Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-20T17:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-23T15:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 97.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "99.33", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2019-03-20T17:23:00Z\n## Message ID: 20190320-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20190320-AL-001 and 20190321-AL-001).Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 41 ensemble members (see notes section), 40 (97%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2019-03-23T02:46Z and 2019-03-24T02:40Z (average arrival 2019-03-23T15:22Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 72% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-3 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2019-03-21_ncmes1_sims41_HILOX070/20190320_082400_ncmes1_sims41_HILOX070_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2019-03-21_ncmes1_sims41_HILOX070/20190320_082400_ncmes1_sims41_HILOX070_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2019-03-21_ncmes1_sims41_HILOX070/20190320_082400_ncmes1_sims41_HILOX070_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2019-03-21_ncmes1_sims41_HILOX070/20190320_082400_ncmes1_sims41_HILOX070_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2019-03-21_ncmes1_sims41_HILOX070/Detailed_results_20190320_082400_ncmes1_sims41_HILOX070.txt\n\n##\n\nNASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-20T17:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-24T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "99.13", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2019 Mar 20 1735 UTC\n:Product: documentation at https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.sidc.be_products_presto&d=DwICAg&c=ApwzowJNAKKw3xye91w7BE1XMRKi2LN9kiMk5Csz9Zk&r=Od20wA-99JawsdxdLQopN4XbhWUtRyL1DQSI3KTJFsI&m=kKoUEnESBdKbi_JdJlF1lg60RtFJ1-MXkkKL5M6zvvw&s=V9XgMGC_N0MowxLg8E_OhgKxZX8KwzyR6IXW3uHDNzg&e=\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSTEREO-A COR2 beacon data shows at least two CMEs this morning, related with the flares from the unnumbered active region northwest of AR 2735. A slow one (~300 km/s) around 9:00 UT and a faster one (~500 km/s) around 12:00 UT, the last one related to a C4.8 flare. These CMEs are most likely Earth directed. At this moment there is no LASCO data available (data gap between 8:00 UT and 16:00 UT) so a better estimation of the speeds and directions of propagation is not possible. Due to the location of the source region, these CMEs will arrive to the Earth late on March 23 or on March 24.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-20T19:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-23T05:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-38.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "97.55", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2019-03-20 18:19 \n - Time at C2: 2019-03-20 08:24 \n - Radial speed: 541.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 41 deg\n - Eruption location: N01W14\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 568.30 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2019-03-23 05:54 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.52 hours)\nPredicted Kp-> 3.7-4.6" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-20T21:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-23T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-32.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "94.87", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast \nIssued: 2019 Mar 21 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 21-Mar 23 2019 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 21-Mar 23 2019\n\n Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar 23\n00-03UT 0 2 1\n03-06UT 1 1 1\n06-09UT 1 1 2\n09-12UT 1 1 2\n12-15UT 1 1 4\n15-18UT 1 2 6 (G2)\n18-21UT 2 2 6 (G2)\n21-00UT 2 1 5 (G1)\n\nRationale: G1-G2 (Moderate-Minor) storming is likely on Mar 23 due to\nthe 20 Mar CME arrival and subsequent effects.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 21-Mar 23 2019\n\n Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar 23\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Mar 21-Mar 23 2019\n\n Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar 23\nR1-R2 10% 10% 10%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: A slight chance of R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts\nwill exist 21-23 Mar due to active region 2736. (edited) \n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2019 Mar 21 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached low levels this period. Region 2736 (N09W41,\nDai/beta) produced an impulsive C5/1f flare at 21/0312 UTC, in addition\nto several B-level enhancements in X-ray flux. Multiple ENLIL model runs\nseem to have reached a consensus that the arrival of the 20 Mar CME will\noccur around mid UTC day on 23 Mar. However, forecaster confidence is\nonly at moderate levels with the arrival timing output due to over\nforecasted wind speeds in the current ambient environment.\n\nAnother faint, slow moving CME occurred at approximately 20/1930 UTC off\nthe West limb and will be analyzed and modeled as more coronagraph\nimagery becomes available.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Region 2736\nremains an active spot group. C-flares are likely the next three days\n(21-23 Mar) with a slight chance of M-flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)\nradio blackouts).\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater\nthan 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to\nmoderate levels on 21-23 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is\nexpected to maintain background levels, but will largely depend on\nactivity associated with Region 2736.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters began somewhat elevated due to a positive polarity\nCH HSS. Total field strength remained less than 5 nT, and the Bz\ncomponent underwent no significant southward deviations. Solar wind\nspeeds were around 400 km/s to start the period, but gradually decreased\nto around 350 km/s by periods end. Phi was in a positive orientation.\n\n.Forecast...\nA near-background solar wind environment is expected on 21-22 Mar as CH\nHSS effects continue to decline. The anticipated arrival of the 20 Mar\nCME is expected to enhance the near-Earth solar wind environment on 23\nMar.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nMostly quiet conditions are expected on 21-22 Mar with a return to\nbackground solar wind conditions. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic\nstorm conditions are likely on 23 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of\nthe 20 Mar CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-20T23:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-23T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-37.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "92.97", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-21T01:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-23T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "91.63", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 20/1800 UTC\nRadial velocity (km/s): 575 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 28W\nLatitude (deg): 8N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 36 degs \n\nNotes: Several CME fits were attempted in the CAT tool using Lasco C3/C2 and Stereo A difference imagery. Earth-directed estimated speeds ranged between 500 and 650 km/s, but settled on 575 km/s as the mean. ENLIL ensemble output suggests arrival time between 23/0900 UTC and 24/0000 UTC. However, the background solar wind speed in ENLIL is significantly faster than observations at present, which suggests the CME may slow more than ENLIL suggests. This reduces confidence in the forecast arrival time, and may be later than the figure given here. \nSpace weather advisor: Andrew Sibley" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-21T06:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-23T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "86.38", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2019-03-20 18:20\nRadial velocity (km/s):529.9\nLongitude (deg):25\nLatitude (deg):10\nHalf-angular width (deg):40.5\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-21T06:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-23T02:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-42.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "86.05", "predictionNote" : "Start time: 2019-03-20 08:24\nInitial speed: 541 km/s\nSource Location: N01W14\nSolar wind speed: 375 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-21T06:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-23T20:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "85.98", "predictionNote" : "Start time: 2019-03-20 08:24\nInitial speed: 541 km/s\nSolar wind speed: 375 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hr" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM + ESWF", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-21T08:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-25T12:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 24.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.63", "predictionNote" : "Model & CME input parameters:\n\nStart March 20, 2019 15:20 at 10Rs, v=350km/s, w=400km/s, half-angle = 30°, location W20" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-21T08:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-23T15:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.22", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n**************************************************************************************\nVo = 540.0 km/s\nu_r = 596.1 km/s\nAcceleration: -0.561 m/s^2\nDuration in seconds: 285786.60\nDuration in days: 3.3077153\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.56 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 435.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/03/2019 Time: 15:47 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CAT-PUMA", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-21T11:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-24T03:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.88", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.23", "predictionNote" : "This is a prediction for the CME at 2019-03-20T11:24:00\nThe angular width for the CME at 2019-03-20T08:24:00 is too small for CAT-PUMA to make a prediction.\n\nCME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 & C3:\nOnset time: 2019-03-20T11:24:00\nAngular width: 104.2\nAverage speed: 341.1 km/s\nFinal speed: 317.5 km/s\nMass: 9.22e14 g\nMPA: 305.0\n\nSolar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft:\nBz: -0.690 nT\nAlpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041 # No observation, use average value in the model\nFlow Speed: 400.539 km/s\nFlow Latitude: -0.730\nPressure: 0.666 nPa\nFlow Longitude: 2.572\nBx: -2.944 nT\nTemperature: 58708.71 K" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-23T18:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 79.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.2, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.16667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-50784.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-23T15:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-50784.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2019-03-08T04:17:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2019-03-08T04:17Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2019-03-12T02:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Large eruption from AR 2734 at 03:11Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-08T13:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-12T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.22", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2019 Mar 08 1347 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA relatively long duration C1.3-class flare was observed at 03:19 UT on\nMarch 08. This flare originated from Catania sunspot group 9 (NOAA Active\nRegion 2734), which was located at about 7 degrees latitude North and 10\ndegrees longitude West. A coronal dimming was observed to be associated\nwith this flare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) was also observed in\nSOHO/LASCO-C2 data (no STEREO-COR3 data are available). The projected CME\nspeed in the plane of the sky was estimated to be in the range of 288 km/s\nand 331 km/s by the CACTUS detection tool, and we have evaluated the\ncorrected speed to be around 440 km/s. The slow speed CME is expected to\nreach Earth in about 4 days, on March 12 midday.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-08T15:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-11T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.22", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/14546/1\nModel Inputs:\n2019-03-08T04:17:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=7.0, Speed=340.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2019-03-08T14:44Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2019-03-11T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190308_144400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-08T18:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-11T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.25", "predictionNote" : "CME Observed Time: 2019-03-08T03:19Z \nCME Arrival Time: ----- \nObserved Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ----- \n\nPredicted Arrival Time: 2019-03-11T13:00Z \nPredicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0\nPrediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) \nPrediction Method Note:\nMet Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2019-03-08T11:21Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 462\nLongitude (deg): W03\nLatitude (deg): N09\nHalf-angular width (deg): 37 \n\nNotes: Low confidence in timing due to data gaps in STEREO-A imagery.\nSpace weather advisor: Richard Stone" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-09T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-10T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-33.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.50", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2019 Mar 09 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 09-Mar 11 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 09-Mar 11 2019\n\n Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11\n00-03UT 3 3 2 \n03-06UT 2 1 4 \n06-09UT 2 1 4 \n09-12UT 1 1 5 (G1)\n12-15UT 2 2 5 (G1)\n15-18UT 2 2 5 (G1)\n18-21UT 2 2 4 \n21-00UT 2 2 4 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 11 Mar from an anticipated \nglancing blow from a transient CME.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 09-Mar 11 2019\n\n Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Mar 09-Mar 11 2019\n\n Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11\nR1-R2 1% 1% 1%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast.\n\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2019 Mar 09 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached low levels. Region 2734 (N08W17, Hax/alpha)\nproduced a long duration C1/Sf event at 08/0319 UTC, followed by a\nsecondary C1 enhancement, which peaked shortly after at 08/0336 UTC.\nGOES-14 SXI imagery depicted the source of the bimodal X-ray signature\nwith initial brightening in the leading portion of the region followed\nby brightening in the trailer portion of the region. Associated with\nboth events were two separate CME signatures, a western directed CME,\nfirst seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0428 UTC, followed by an eastern\ndirected CME, first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0438 UTC.\n\nAnalysis and modeling of the two signatures suggested most of the ejecta\nfrom the western oriented CME was directed upstream of Earth, with\nenhancement from the periphery of the CME likely early on 11 Mar. Ejecta\nfrom the second CME was projected to pass downstream of Earth's orbit,\nwith a chance for minor enhancement late on 11 Mar.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight\nchance for C-class flares all three days (09-11 Mar), due to the weak\nflare potential from Region 2734.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at moderate to high\nlevels with a maximum flux of 2,080 observed at 08/2135 UTC. The greater\nthan 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on\n09 Mar, decreasing to normal to moderate levels on 10-11 Mar. The\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background\nlevels.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were slightly enhanced through the period. Solar\nwind speeds averaged about 400 km/s, total field ranged between 3-6 nT\nwhile the Bz component varied between +/-3 nT. Phi angle remained in a\npredominately negative orientation.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind conditions are anticipated to be slightly enhanced through\n09-10 Mar as several tenuous, isolated, negative polarity CH HSS undergo\nweak connections with the near-Earth environment. There is also the\npossibility of brief connections with the south polar crown on both\ndays. By 11 Mar, an increase in wind parameters are expected due to CME\ninteraction described earlier.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on\n09-10 Mar due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. By 11 Mar, field\nconditions are expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm conditions due to CME\narrival early in the day." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-09T08:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-12T03:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.50", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n**************************************************************************************\nVo = 340 km/s\nu_r = 390.7 km/s\nAcceleration: 0.21 m/s^2\nDuration in seconds: 344111.00\nDuration in days: 3.9827662\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.21 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 463.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/03/2019 Time: 03:52 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-09T10:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-13T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 15.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "26.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.83", "predictionNote" : "Prediction Method: DBM(DBEM)\n\nPrediction Method Note:\nDrag-based model in ensemble mode v2 (DBEMv2-ESA/SSA application)\nhttp://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather\n\nModel & CME input parameters:\nstart time: 2019-03-08 15:00 (+/-30 min)\nstart distance: 20 Rsun\ninitial speed: 350 km/s (+/-100)\nhalfwidth: 30 deg (+/-10)\ncmd: 6 deg (+/-10)\nsolar wind speed: 322 km/s (+/-50)\ngamma: 0.1 (+/-0.05)\n------\nprobability of arrival: 100%\nCME arrival date & time: 2019-03-08 04:00 (+12h, -15h)\nCME arrival speed: 340 km/s (+/- 50 km/s)\n------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-10T10:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-11T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.33", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2019-03-08 12:30\nRadial velocity (km/s):423.906\nLongitude (deg):28\nLatitude (deg):9.1\nHalf-angular width (deg):21\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2019-03-11T01:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-11T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.15", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-11T19:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-51090.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2019-03-11T15:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-51090.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2018-08-20T21:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2018-08-20T21:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2018-08-25T06:00Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : -169, "dstMinTime" : "2018-08-26T07:00Z", "cmeNote" : "The CME is associated with a filament eruption occurring around 2018-08-20T18:00Z at N40W05 in SDO 193.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-08-21T14:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-08-25T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "87.90", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/14115/1\nModel Inputs:\n2018-08-20T21:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=0.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=309.0, HalfAngle=19.0, Time21.5=2018-08-21T18:06Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2018-08-25T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =12.0 (+- 8 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2018-08-26T18:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2018-08-21T16:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-08-24T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "85.83", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2018-08-21T10:15Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 450km/s (approx).\nLongitude (deg): W09\nLatitude (deg): W05\nHalf-angular width (deg): 24\n\nNotes: Full halo from broadscale coronal disturbance inc. filament. Decided halo by running full-colour SOHO COR imagery and seeing 90deg trajectory from STEREO A COR. Hard to analyse as barely visible in SOHO and STEREO A data restarts after a lengthy data gap only after the CME has progressed past the edge of the frame. High confidence on direction (location) and therefore Earthbound component, low on speed. CME may contain magnetic cloud behind, with storming most likely post-shock. \nSpace weather advisor: Mark Seltzer" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-08-21T23:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-08-24T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "78.58", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2018 Aug 24 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 24-Aug 26 2018 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 24-Aug 26 2018\n\n Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26\n00-03UT 2 4 3 \n03-06UT 2 4 2 \n06-09UT 2 3 2 \n09-12UT 1 2 2 \n12-15UT 1 3 2 \n15-18UT 1 2 2 \n18-21UT 2 1 2 \n21-00UT 4 2 2 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.\nActive levels are expected late on day one through early on day two\n(24-25 Aug) due to the anticipated arrival of the 20 Aug CME with\npossible combined effects from a weak CH HSS.\n\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2018 Aug 22 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was very low. Region 2719 (S12E09) decayed into a plage\nregion and was inactive.\n\nAt approximately 20/22 UTC a faint and slow-moving CME was seen in LASCO\ncoronagraph imagery. The source region for this CME is unclear, and the\nbulk of the ejecta appears to be directed southwest of the Sun-Earth\nline. Further analysis of this event determined that a glancing blow\nfrom the CME is possible. However, due to it's lack of density and slow\nnature, impact is expected to be negligible.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (22-24\nAug).\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period\nwith a peak flux of 9,290 pfu observed at 21/2025 UTC. The greater than\n10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels\nfor the next three days (22-24 Aug) due to enhanced solar wind\nconditions. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue\nat background levels throughout the forecast period.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters reflected a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind\nspeeds steadily declined from around 600 km/s to around 450 km/s. Total\nfield strength was steady near 5 nT. There were no significant\ndeviations in the Bz component. The phi angle remained negative.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the next three\ndays (22-24 Aug) due to the continued, but waning, influence of a\nnegative polarity CH HSS.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to the\ncontinued influence of the negative polarity CH HSS.\n\n.Forecast...\nMostly unsettled levels are expected over the next three days\n(22-24 Aug) due to the continued influence of a negative polarity CH\nHSS. \n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2018-08-22T09:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-08-25T01:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "69.00", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n**************************************************************************************\nVo = 310 km/s\nu_r = 359.886 km/s\nAcceleration: 0.318841 m/s^2\nDuration in seconds: 359084.60\nDuration in days: 4.1560718\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.32 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 474.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/08/2018 Time: 01:08 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-08-22T12:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-08-24T23:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 24.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 24.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.42", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2018 Aug 22 1237 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA faint CME front can be detected in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from around 21:12UT August 20. It is mainly directed towards the West but has an extension over the South. Although faint, it could be classified as partial halo CME. The CME seems to be related to the eruption on August 20, around 19:00UT of a filament located around the central meridian between 35 and 50 degrees. The angular extent together with the location of the associated filament eruption indicate that it is likely that the CME has an Earth-bound component. With an uncertain speed of between 300 and 500 km/s an arrival is anticipated between noon of August 24 and noon of August 25. Effects in terms of solar wind speed should be small but the magnetic field may see significant effects of the passing cloud.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2018-08-22T14:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-08-26T00:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 14.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 15.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.97", "predictionNote" : "Prediction Method: DBM(DBEM)\n\nPrediction Method Note:\nDrag-based model in ensemble mode v2 (DBEMv2-ESA/SSA application)\nhttp://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather\n\nModel & CME input parameters:\nstart time: 2018-08-21 11:30 (+/-30 min)\nstart distance: 20 Rsun\ninitial speed: 350 km/s (+/-100)\nhalfwidth: 30 deg (+/-15)\ncmd: 5 deg (+/-15)\nsolar wind speed: 370 km/s (+/-50)\ngamma: 0.3 (+/-0.1)\n------\nprobability of arrival: 100%\nCME arrival date & time: 2018-08-26 00:30 (+15h, -14.4h)\nCME arrival speed: 354 km/s (+44 km/s, -34 km/s)\n------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-08-25T02:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-55862.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-08-24T23:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-55862.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2018-08-19T07:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2018-08-19T07:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2018-08-24T05:50Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "SIDC: In SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images a very narrow\n(only around 10 degrees angular width) CME is visible from August 19 7:36UT\nonwards, directed towards the South-West. It is also visible from Stereo A\nCOR2, also narrow and directed to the South-West from this viewpoint. The arrival time for this CME could have been confused with the arrival time of the 2018-08-20T21:24Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2018-08-20T05:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-08-21T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-54.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "96.08", "predictionNote" : "CME associated with DSF observed in Learmonth GONG H-alpha ~05:30UT on 19 Aug. Glancing blow with very slight increase in solar wind speed and density expected.\nSpeed: 715 km/s\nCone half angle: 23\nLat: 14S\nLong: 22W" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-08-21T13:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-08-21T23:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 1.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-53.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.27", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2018 Aug 21 1238 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 80821\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Aug 2018, 1237UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Aug 2018 until 23 Aug 2018)\nSOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 21 Aug 2018 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 022\nPREDICTIONS FOR 22 Aug 2018 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 026\nPREDICTIONS FOR 23 Aug 2018 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 017\nCOMMENT: Solar activity continued to be very low with X-ray flux remaining\nbelow B level throughout the period.\nField separation was observed the simple bipolar NOAA active region 2719\ninhibiting only a small potential for a possible C flare.\nX-ray flux is thus expected to remain below C level.\n\nThe filament located around the central meridian between 35 and 50 degrees\nNorth seems to have lifted off around 19:00UT. A possibly related slow\n(below 300 km/s) and faint CME front can be detected in SoHO/LASCO C2\nimages from around 21:12UT. It is directed towards the West and has an\nangular extent of around 90 degrees. Due to a datagap in Stereo A COR2 data\nthere is no more accurate information on the direction of the ejecta.\nGiven the speed, direction and angular extent of the CME from Earth\nperspective no impact on Earth is expected.\n\nProton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.\n\nSolar wind saw the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed\nstream.\nSolar wind speed increased before midnight to around 670 km/s before\ndeclining to around 600 km/s currently. Total magnetic field was at\nbackground values of 2-5 nT with a decaying trend.\nSolar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated under the influence\nof the high speeds from the transequatorial extension of the Southern\npolar coronal hole. A shock related to the August 19 CME could potentially\noccur within the next 24 hours but any effects should be small within the\nalready elevated background solar wind conditions.\n\nGeomagnetic conditions saw active periods around 18:00-21:00 UT (both local\nK Dourbes and NOAA Kp 4) but were otherwise quiet to unsettled (both local\nK Dourbes and NOAA Kp 2-3).\nMainly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected but as solar wind\nspeeds remain elevated and with possible CME related perturbations\narriving, active periods are possible.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 016, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Aug 2018\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 068\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 021\nAK WINGST : 018\nESTIMATED AP : 018\nESTIMATED ISN : 016, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-08-21T23:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 1.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-54.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-55887.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-08-21T23:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 1.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-54.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-55887.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2018-07-05T04:39:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2018-07-05T04:39Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2018-07-10T11:25Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is visible in STEREO A COR2 on the W limb. It starts as a slowly brightening near the streamer before the CME is clearly visible. For this reason the start time can be anywhere between 02:39 (labelled by SIDC) and 13:09 (labelled by SWPC).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-07-05T19:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-07-10T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "112.33", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/14022/1\nModel Inputs:\n2018-07-05T04:39:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=260.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2018-07-05T22:56Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2018-07-10T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180705_225600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other", "submissionTime" : "2018-07-05T22:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-07-07T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -41, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2018-07-07T22:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-73.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "108.82", "predictionNote" : "NOAA G2 event using a solar wind velocity = 750 km/s and the ENLIL+Rice Dst algorithm" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-07-06T11:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-07-10T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 1.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "96.37", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2018 Jul 06 1102 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nCORRECTION - Concerning:PRESTO issued at 20:10 UT on 05-Jul-2018. Following further analysis of new STEREO A, EUV and LASCO observations, the CME speed was attributed to a second back-sided CME observed in LASCO observations. Following further analysis, the front sided event is less energetic, with a speed of 212 km/s first seen in STEREO Ahead COR2 observations at 02:39 UT. Any impact is expected to be negligible, but an approximate arrival will be on 10-Jul-2018.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# #\n# Website http://www.sidc.be. #\n# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #\n# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2018-07-06T18:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-07-09T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "89.17", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 05/2212UTC\nRadial velocity (km/s): 258km/s\nLongitude (deg): 15W\nLatitude (deg): 3S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 25 \n\nNotes: It was hard to analyse with only Stereo A providing useful information. A very faint return was tenuously observed in Lasco C2. The slow CME will likely be accelerated slightly by the solar wind, but it shows a negative shock on ENLIL. The Ensemble shows a wide spread through the 9th and 10th. Most likely to see Kp of 3 or 4, with low chance of a Kp5. The later CME appears to be far-sided, and not likely to impact Earth. A filament disturbance in the 5th evening in the NW quadrant did not show anything significant on Stereo A or SOHO.\nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC AMS" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2018-07-07T12:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-07-09T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.42", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n\n**************************************************************************************\nVo = 388±57 km/s (from Cactus)\nu_r = 439.992 km/s\nAcceleration: 0.0346572\nDuration in seconds: 337726.61\nDuration in days: 3.9088728\nt2 is negative\n**************************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.03 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 451.7 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/07/2018 Time: 09:00 UT\n**************************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-07-07T14:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-07-09T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.67", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2018-07-06 01:36\nRadial velocity (km/s):217.648\nLongitude (deg):-0.100000\nLatitude (deg):-1.80000\nHalf-angular width (deg):20.0000\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2018-07-09T03:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-07-07T15:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-67.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.10", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2018-07-05 04:39\nSource Longtitude: -10\nSource Latitude: -5\nInitial Shock Speed: 260 km/s \nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 440 km/s \nDuration Time: 0.5 hr (default)\n\nOutput results: The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2018-07-07 15:53:34" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2018-07-09T03:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-07-10T01:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.05", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2018-07-05 04:39\nInitial Shock Speed: 260 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 440 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.5 hr (default)\n\nOutput Results: The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2018-07-10 01:25:31" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-07-09T06:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 12.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-56961.52", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-07-09T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-56961.52", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2018-03-05T23:39:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2018-03-05T23:39Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2018-03-09T23:30Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "First seen in STA Cor2 at 2018-03-05T23:39Z, but this is after a data gap from 19:30Z to 23:30Z so the true start time is uncertain. The source is likely the long-duration filling in of the dim CH region visible in the South of AIA 193, centered around longitude -10, beginning around 18:00 on 2018-03-05. The CME is also visible as a faint partial halo to the SW in C2/C3, but not visible in the difference imaging.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-03-06T15:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-03-09T14:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.98", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nDate: March 6, 2018 at 8:31:20 AM MST\nSubject: CME arrival alert\n\nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2018-03-09T14:30:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 2\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 4\nprobability_of_arrival: 5\n\nINFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2018 Mar 06 12:39UTC\n\nSolar X ray flux remained below B level and with no spotted regions on the\nvisible disk chances for any flare occurrences remain very low.\nSoHO/LASCO C2 images show a very faint and slow CME first visible around\n1:25 UT. It is primarily directed towards the south west and given its\nfaint character its angular extent can not clearly be determined. Stereo A\nCOR2 images however suggest that it can not be excluded that Earth is on\nits propagation path. Further analysis is ongoing but given its faint\nnature and slow speed any possible impacts should be fairly insignificant.\nProton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain\nso." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone", "submissionTime" : "2018-03-06T16:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-03-10T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "78.75", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2018-03-06T09:54Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 386\nLongitude (deg): -12\nLatitude (deg): -12\nHalf-angular width (deg): 29\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2018-03-07T09:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-03-09T10:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.50", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\nCME_speed = 490.0 km/s (+/- 90 km/s)\nu_r = 544.8\nDuration in seconds: 299095.17\nDuration in days: 3.4617496\n******************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.36 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 437.3 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/03/2018 Time: 10:43 UT\n******************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2018-03-07T15:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-03-09T18:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.27", "predictionNote" : "Model & CME input parameters:\n#1\nSHOCK arrival prediction:\nstart time: 2018-03-06 08:45\nstart distance: 20 Rsun\ninitial speed: 550 km/s\nhalfwidth: 50 deg\ncmd: 30 deg\nsolar wind speed: 400 km/s\ngamma: 0.1\n------\nSHOCK arrival date & time: 2018-03-09 18:30\nSHOCK arrival speed: 450 km/s\n------\n#2\nCME arrival prediction:\nstart time: 2018-03-06 08:45\nstart distance: 20 Rsun\ninitial speed: 550 km/s\nhalfwidth: 35 deg\ncmd: 30 deg\nsolar wind speed: 400 km/s\ngamma: 0.2\n------\nCME arrival date & time: 2018-03-10 08:30\nCME arrival speed: 380 km/s\n------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other", "submissionTime" : "2018-03-07T15:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-03-09T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 86.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.23", "predictionNote" : "------------------------------------------------\nDrag Based Ensemble Model version2 (DBEMv2):\nhttp://oh.geof.unizg.hr/DBEMv2/dbem.php\n------------------------------------------------\n\nModel & CME input parameters:\n#1\nSHOCK arrival prediction:\nstart time: 2018-03-06 08:45 (+/-30 min)\nstart distance: 20 Rsun\ninitial speed: 550 km/s (+/- 100 km/s)\nhalfwidth: 50 deg (+/-10 deg)\ncmd: 30 deg (+/-10 deg)\nsolar wind speed: 400 km/s (+/- 50 km/s)\ngamma: 0.1 (+/-0.05)\n------\nprobability of arrival: 100% (we instead use PoA of CME)\nSHOCK arrival date & time: 2018-03-09 16:00\nSHOCK arrival speed: 470 km/s\n------\n#2\nCME arrival prediction:\nstart time: 2018-03-06 08:45 (+/- 30 min)\nstart distance: 20 Rsun\ninitial speed: 550 km/s (+/-100 km/s)\nhalfwidth: 35 deg (+/- 10 deg)\ncmd: 30 deg (+/- 10 deg)\nsolar wind speed: 400 km/s (+/-50 km/s)\ngamma: 0.2 (+/- 0.05)\n------\nprobability of arrival: 86%\nCME arrival date & time: 2018-03-10 00:00\nCME arrival speed: 430 km/s\n------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2018-03-07T18:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-03-08T15:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.88", "predictionNote" : "Initial speed: 550 km/s\nSource location: S12E12\nSolar wind speed: 390 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hrs" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2018-03-07T18:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-03-09T09:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.87", "predictionNote" : "Initial speed: 550 km/s\nSolar wind speed: 390 km/s\nDuration time: 0.5 hrs" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2018-03-08T01:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-03-10T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.13", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2018-03-06-T10:0Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 384\nLongitude (deg): E010\nLatitude (deg): S16\nHalf-angular width (deg): 39\n\nNotes: Low confidence due to faint appearance on Lasco-C3, and current background ENLIL winds deemed too strong. CME might be obscured amongst CH HSS effects.\nSpace weather advisor: Kirk Waite" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-03-09T14:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.25, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-59901.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-03-09T15:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-59901.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2018-02-12T01:25Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2018-02-15T07:38Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-12T14:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-15T11:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.18", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2018 Feb 12 1427 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA halo CME was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 01:25 UT today (2018-Feb-12). The CME has a speed of approximately 509 km/s and is anticipated to reach the Earth on 15-Feb-2018 at 12:00 UT. The source region of the CME was NOAA AR 2699 which is presently near disk center.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-12T16:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-15T16:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.13", "predictionNote" : "Model & CME input parameters:\n\nCME take-off date & UTC time: Feb 12, 2018 at 05UT\nγ = 0.30×10-7 km-1, w = 350 km/s,\nR0 = 15 rSun, v0 = 600 km/s, λ = 20°, φCME = 15°\nRtarget = 0.99 AU, φtarget = 0° \n\n\nComment: the CME was directed towards South - maybe a flank hit with prolonged geomagnetic effects." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-12T16:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-15T06:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.08", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Osiris, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2018-02-12T15:37:33Z\n## Message ID: 20180212-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2018-02-12T01:25Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~554 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/-7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Osiris. The leading edge of the CME will reach Osiris at 2018-02-15T02:40Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2018-02-15T06:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001) is associated with a C1.5 flare with ID 2018-02-12T00:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2018-02-12T01:35Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-12T16:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-14T22:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.72", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2018-02-12 07:21 \n - Time at C2: 2018-02-12 01:25 \n - Radial speed: 554.0 km/s\n - Half angle: 49 deg\n - Eruption location: S07W22\n Inferences:\n   - No flare association was found\n Predictions for Earth:\n   - In-situ shock speed: 572.20 km/s\n   - Shock arrival time: 2018-02-14 22:25 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.00 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-12T19:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-14T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-22.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.28", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2018 Feb 13 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels during the period due to a long\nduration C1 flare at 12/0135 UTC from Region 2699 (S07W29, Dai/beta). \nAssociated with the flare activity was an asymmetric halo CME first\nobserved in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 12/0125 UTC. WSA/ENLIL model\nanalysis of the event indicated a glancing blow late on 14 Feb to early\non 15 Feb.\n\nNew flux emergence and consolidation was observed in the intermediate\narea of Region 2699 while the larger leading and trailing spots were\nstable.\n\n.Forecast...\nThere is a chance for C-class flares with a slight chance for an\nisolated M-class flare on days one through three (13-15 Feb) due to the\nflare potential of Region 2699.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux were at or near background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal\nlevels for the next three days (13-15 Feb). There is a slight chance\nfor a greater than 10 MeV proton event on day one (13 Feb) due to recent\nflare activity from Region 2699. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is\nexpected to be at background levels on days two and three (14-15 Feb).\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged\nfrom approximately 300-345 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while\nthe Bz component was between +5/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a\nmostly positive (away) solar sector with brief rotations into a negative\n(towards) sector.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on day one\nand through the majority of day two (13-14 Feb). By late on day two to\nearly on day three (15 Feb), parameters are expected to become enhanced\nwith the arrival of the 12 Feb CME likely in combination with the\narrival of a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind\nspeed reaching 600 km/s is likely with the CH HSS based on STEREO A Mag\n& Plastic data.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and\nthrough the majority of day two (13-14 Feb). A glancing blow from the\n12 Feb CME combined with CIR effects is expected to arrive late on day\ntwo through early on day three (14-15 Feb). Active levels are expected\nlate on 14 Feb with unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 15\nFeb.\n--\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2018 Feb 13 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 13-Feb 15 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 13-Feb 15 2018\n\n Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15\n00-03UT 2 1 3 \n03-06UT 1 2 4 \n06-09UT 1 1 5 (G1)\n09-12UT 1 1 5 (G1)\n12-15UT 1 1 4 \n15-18UT 1 1 3 \n18-21UT 2 2 3 \n21-00UT 2 4 4 \n\nRationale: A glancing blow from the 12 Feb CME combined with CIR effects\nis expected to arrive late on day two through early on day three (14-15\nFeb). G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 15 Feb as a result." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-13T07:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-15T06:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.63", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n******************************************************************************\n******************************************************************************\nu_r = 616.636\nDuration in seconds: 277156.95\nDuration in days: 3.2078350\n******************************************************************************\nAcceleration of the CME: -0.64 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 438.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 15/02/2018 Time: 06:24 UT\n******************************************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (NSSC SEPC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-13T07:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-16T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "25.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.57", "predictionNote" : "Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-02-16T09:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) \nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0% \nMAX solar wind speed : (380,520)km/s\nPredicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3 - 5\nPrediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-13T09:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-14T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.68", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 04:58Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 950\nLongitude (deg): 19W\nLatitude (deg): 10S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-13T10:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-15T14:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.30", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nEllipse parameters\nhalfwidth:\n 49.0\naspectratio:\n 1.25\ndirection from Earth in HEE longitude:\n22.0\n--------------------------------\nDrag parameters\nR0 initial distance:\n36.0 (approx. from STEREO/HI beacon data)\ntinit:\n2018-02-12T11:18:00.000\nvinit:\n500\nbackground wind:\n350\ngamma:\n0.1\n\nPredicted arrival speed at Earth: 430 km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-13T11:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-14T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.42", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:20180212T0326\nRadial velocity (km/s):1440\nLongitude (deg):11.7\nLatitude (deg):-8.6\nHalf-angular width (deg):23.5\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "CAT-PUMA", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-13T12:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-15T02:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.47", "predictionNote" : "Input:\n\nCME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 & C3:\nOnset time: 2018-02-12T01:25:00\nAngular width: 266.6\nAverage speed: 688.5 km/s\nFinal speed: 654.8 km/s\nMass: 3.94e15 g\nMPA: 262.8\n\nSolar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft:\nBz: -1.22 nT\nAlpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041 # No observation, use average value in the model\nFlow Speed: 314.5 km/s\nFlow Latitude: -1.86\nPressure: 0.974 nPa\nFlow Longitude: 2.19\nBx: 1.038 nT\nTemperature: 15624.54 K" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-13T15:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-15T02:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 14.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.4, "confidenceInPercentage" : 81.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.18", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Osiris, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2018-02-13T12:56:57Z\n## Message ID: 20180213-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20180212-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 32 ensemble members (see notes section), 26 (81%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2018-02-14T12:00Z and 2018-02-15T12:38Z (average arrival 2018-02-15T02:16Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 82% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2018-02-12_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067/20180212_012500_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2018-02-12_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067/20180212_012500_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2018-02-12_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067/20180212_012500_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2018-02-12_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067/20180212_012500_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2018-02-12_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067/Detailed_results_20180212_012500_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067.txt\n###\n\n\nNASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2018-02-15T23:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-16T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -47, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2018-02-16T16:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "20.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16.35", "predictionNote" : "# Date JD Xhf Vel Class loc Dec Az Dst size \n201802110000 2458160.53681 40 335 M040 S08E02 2 -13 -034 small\n\n# AlertIssued PredictStart PredictPeak EL GX DST Pr Sr Vel Status CID Bz\n 201802150100 201802152359 201802161600 60 G2 -047 02 SP 750 SE M015 S" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-15T06:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 77.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.6, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-60445.30", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2018-02-15T06:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-60445.30", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2017-10-18T07:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2017-10-18T07:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2017-10-21T03:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "These predictions are for STEREO-A. Not for the Earth!", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2017-10-18T16:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-10-19T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.40", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-10-18T09:10Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1250\nLongitude (deg): E115\nLatitude (deg): S05\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes: This CME is not Earth directed, but STEREO-A arrival predicted 2017-10-19T20:00Z, or early hours 20th October 2017. \nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-10-18T16:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-10-19T18:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-32.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.28", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Spitzer, STEREO A)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2017-10-18T16:43:29Z\n## Message ID: 20171018-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: O-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2017-10-18T05:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1439 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -122/-38 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2017-10-18T05:48:00-CME-001\n\n2: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2017-10-18T07:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1468 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -117/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2017-10-18T07:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Spitzer and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Spitzer at 2017-10-19T23:39Z and STEREO A at 2017-10-19T18:12Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2017-10-18T05:48:00-CME-001 and 2017-10-18T07:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20171018_080400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20171018_080400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20171018_080400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20171018_080400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20171018_080400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20171018_080400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20171018_080400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20171018_080400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20171018_080400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2017-10-18T21:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-10-20T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.33", "predictionNote" : "These predictions are for STEREO-A using the SARM (Shock Arrival Time Model) model by manually entering the CME data in http://spaceweather.uma.es/sarm_v2/sarm\n\nCME: \nLongitude: 3.8 \nLatitude: 38.0 \nVelocity at 21.5 Rs: 1439.0 km/s \n\nTarget Distance 0.958 AU \n\nPredicted Transit time using CME data (only) = 44.0 h\n\nShock Arrival Time: Oct 18th 7:00 + 44.0 h = Oct 20th 3:00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-10-19T21:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-63257.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-10-19T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-63257.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2017-09-10T16:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2017-09-10T16:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2017-09-12T19:26Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : -50, "dstMinTime" : "2017-09-13T01:00Z", "cmeNote" : "Associated with X8.2 flare from AR 12673. Arrival at of CME-associated disturbance DSCOVR has no clear flux-rope signature, shock only.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-10T20:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-13T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.37", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2017-09-10T20:04:43Z\n## Message ID: 20170910-AL-007\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2017-09-10T16:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20170910-AL-006). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO B. The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO B at 2017-09-12T05:12Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2017-09-13T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\nStart time of the event: 2017-09-10T16:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1670 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 63 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 83/-8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2017-09-10T16:09:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2017-09-10T16:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_180100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_180100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_180100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_180100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_180100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_180100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_180100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_180100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_180100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2017-09-10T16:09:00-CME-001) is associated with an X8.2 flare with ID 2017-09-10T15:35:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2017-09-10T16:06Z (see notifications 20170910-AL-001, 20170910-AL-003), and the SEPs at GOES13 with IDs 2017-09-10T16:25:00-SEP-001 and 2017-09-10T16:45:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20170910-AL-005).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-11T03:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-13T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.02", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2017 Sep 11 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 11-Sep 13 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 11-Sep 13 2017\n\n Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13\n00-03UT 3 3 4 \n03-06UT 3 2 5 (G1)\n06-09UT 2 2 5 (G1)\n09-12UT 2 2 5 (G1)\n12-15UT 2 2 4 \n15-18UT 2 3 4 \n18-21UT 3 4 6 (G2)\n21-00UT 4 4 5 (G1)\n\nRationale: G2 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day three\n(Sep 13) under combined influence of a positive polarity CH HSS and\npossible glancing blow effects from the 10 Sep CME.\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2017 Sep 11 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at high levels due to an X8 flare (R3-Strong) at\n10/1606 UTC, from old Region 2673 (S09, L=119) after the region had\nrotated around the W limb of the solar disk. Associated with the event\nwas a 1,900 sfu Tenflare, a Type IV radio sweep, a Type II radio sweep\n(estimated velocity of 928 km/s), and an asymmetric full halo CME\nsignature. A magnetic crochet was observed on solar-facing magnetometers\nduring the X8 flare as well as an EIT wave propagating across the solar\ndisk in SDO/EUV 193 imagery beginning at 10/1557 UTC. Due to the source\nregion's location at the time of the eruption, approximately 3 degrees\naround the W limb, a vast majority of the ejecta is not directed at\nEarth. After detailed analysis it has been determined that a possibility\nexists for a glancing blow enhancement late on day three (13 Sep) as a\nresult of this large solar event. The remaining numbered sunspots lacked\nsignificant flare activity and were stable." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-11T08:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-11T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.95", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2017 Sep 11 0829 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe X8.9 flare (peaked at 16:06 UT, on September 10) which originated from the Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) was associated with the full halo CME. The projected speed of the CME was about 2900 km/s. The arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave is expected today at about 12:00 UT.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (NSSC SEPC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-11T08:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-12T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.53", "predictionNote" : "Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) \nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0% \nMAX solar wind speed : (752,1187)km/s\nPredicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4 - 6\nPrediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) \n\nCharacteristics parameters of CME on Sep 11 for propagation:\npropagation velocity (km/s): 2190 km/s\nLongitude (deg): W37\nLatitude (deg): N04\nAngular width (deg): 86\nInformation of related flare:\nYYYYMMDD HHMM MAX END LAT LON IB\n20170910 1535 1606 1631 N04 W36 X8.2" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-11T09:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-13T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.73", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/13114/1\nModel Inputs:\n2017-09-09T16:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=82.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=465.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2017-09-10T00:54Z\n2017-09-09T23:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=92.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=333.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2017-09-10T04:24Z\n2017-09-10T16:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=85.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=2650.0, HalfAngle=54.0, Time21.5=2017-09-10T17:18Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2017-09-13T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\nSTEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2017-09-11T20:09Z\nMars with esitmated shock arrival time 2017-09-13T22:00Z\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-11T11:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-13T02:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.85", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n\nCME speed from CACTUS:\n10/09/2017 16:12 UT\nmin V = 104\nmax V = 2013\n\nMost pr. speed:\nV = 850\ndV = 250\n\nDuration in seconds: 210121.79\nDuration in days: 2.4319652\n\nAcceleration of the CME: -1.95 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 504.6 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/09/2017 Time: 02:34 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-11T12:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-12T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.32", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 10/1800 UTC\nRadial velocity (km/s): 2000 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 70W\nLatitude (deg): 9S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 75 deg\n\nNotes: This CME is hard to model and get a good fit, so there is low confidence in timing. Our ENLIL model suggests arrival of 12/0200 UTC, but the forecast is at present 12/0700 UTC, with a wide margin of error of +/- 12 hours.\nSpace weather advisor: MOSWOC" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-11T14:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-12T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.17", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2017 Sep 11 1310 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 70911\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Sep 2017, 1309UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 11 Sep 2017 until 13 Sep 2017)\nSOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 11 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 011\nPREDICTIONS FOR 12 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 021\nPREDICTIONS FOR 13 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 008\nCOMMENT: Strongest flare reported in the last 24 hours was the X8.2 flare\nwhich peaked at 16:06 UT, on September 10. This long duration flare,\noriginated from the Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA AR 2673) which was, at\nthe moment of eruption, already partially behind the west solar limb. The\nflare was associated with the EIT wave, halo CME and the shock wave which\nhad projected speed of about 2900 km/s.\nThe steep increase of the proton fluxes, with >10 MeV, > 50 MeV as well as\n100MeV, associated with the X8.2 flare was observed yesterday. The proton\nflux levels are slowly decreasing, but they are presently still above the\nevent threshold.The recently arrived data indicate that the arrival of the\nCME-driven shock wave, associated with the X-class flare, might be expected\ntomorrow morning (probably around 08:00 UT).\nThe Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA AR 2673), which was the source of the\nmajority of the flaring activity during last few days, has rotated behind\nthe west solar limb. Therefore, we expect solar activity to be low, with at\nmost C-class flares.\n\nThe solar wind speed remains to be rather high, amounting about 600 km/s,\nand the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT. The fast\nsolar wind, associated with the low latitude coronal hole in the northern\nhemisphere which reached the central meridian in the mid-day yesterday, is\nexpecting to arrive at the Earth on September 13.\nGeomagnetic conditions are presently quiet to unsettled. We expect active\nconditions within next 24 hours due to arrival of the CME-driven shock\nwave.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 033, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 10 Sep 2017\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 100\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 017\nAK WINGST : 008\nESTIMATED AP : 008\nESTIMATED ISN : 046, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \n10 1535 1606 1631 ////// X8.2 1900 46/2673 IV/2III/2II/1 \nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ooty IPS", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-11T14:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-12T01:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.95", "predictionNote" : "Dear Sandro and all,\n\nI have tracked the CME associated with X8.2 flare event. Ooty IPS\nshowed that the CME crossed the midway between the Sun and \nEarth distance in about 15 hours after its onset and at this distance \nspeed of the CME was around 1000 to 1200 km/s. The CME seems \nto be not decelerating much. \n\nOoty IPS observations show that the CME is likely to arrive at 1-AU\ndistance around 0 to 3 UT on 12 SEP 2017. It is likely that the shock \nassociated with the CME would likely arrive around 20 to 22 UT on\n11 SEP 2017. The effects of the CME would also likely seen at the\nnear-Earth space.\n\nP.K. Manoharan" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-11T16:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-12T16:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 13.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.97", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO B, Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2017-09-11T16:28:15Z\n## Message ID: 20170911-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2017-09-10T16:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20170910-AL-006, 20170910-AL-007, 20170911-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B and Mars. For 40 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- STEREO B between about 2017-09-11T15:12Z and 2017-09-12T04:35Z (average arrival 2017-09-11T21:31Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2017-09-13T02:02Z and 2017-09-13T22:08Z (average arrival 2017-09-13T11:18Z) for 30% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2017-09-12T10:41Z and 2017-09-12T23:49Z (average arrival 2017-09-12T16:06Z) for 12% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 75% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-10_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065/20170910_160900_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-10_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065/20170910_160900_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-10_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065/20170910_160900_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-10_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065/20170910_160900_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-10_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065/20170910_160900_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-10_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065/20170910_160900_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065_Mars_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-10_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065/20170910_160900_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065_arrival_STB.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-10_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065/20170910_160900_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065_STB_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-10_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065/Detailed_results_20170910_160900_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX065.txt\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-12T14:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 48.25, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.6, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-64177.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-12T12:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-64177.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2017-09-06T12:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2017-09-07T22:30Z", "maxKP" : 8.0, "dstMin" : -142, "dstMinTime" : "2017-09-08T02:00Z", "cmeNote" : "Associated with X9.3 flare from AR 12673.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-06T17:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T18:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.12", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2017-09-06T17:23:49Z\n## Message ID: 20170906-AL-006\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by STEREO A. \n\nStart time of the event: 2017-09-06T12:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1881 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 28/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth and OSIRIS-REx at about 2017-09-08T18:27Z (plus or minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170906_140300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170906_140300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170906_140300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170906_140300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170906_140300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170906_140300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170906_140300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170906_140300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170906_140300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001) is associated with X9.3 flare with ID 2017-09-06T11:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2017-09-06T12:02Z (see notification(s) 20170906-AL-003, 20170906-AL-004).\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-06T22:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.83", "predictionNote" : "From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nDate: September 6, 2017 at 6:40:55 PM EDT\nTo: \nSubject: CME arrival alert\nReply-To: \n\nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2017-09-08T17:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 12\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 4\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 6\nprobability_of_arrival: 80" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-06T23:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.10", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2017 Sep 07 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at high levels. Region 2673 (S09W51,\nEkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X9/3n flare at 06/1202 UTC and an M7\nat 07/1015 UTC. Further imagery is needed to determine if there was a\nCME associated with the M7 event.\n\nAvailable SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery confirms a CME was associated\nwith this X9 flare and likely has an Earth-directed component.\nForecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling determined the CME would\narrive at the near-Earth environment late on 8 Sep.\n\nRegion 2674 (N14W34, Fki/beta) remained mostly inactive for the period\ndespite its continued potential. The remaining regions were stable and\ninactive as well.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the\nnext three days (07-09 Sep), with a chance for very high levels, due to\nthe flare potential and recent history of Region 2673. Radio blackouts\nreaching the R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels are expected for the next\nthree days (07-09 Sep), with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts.\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum\nflux of 7,220 pfu observed at 06/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux reached S2 (Moderate) levels with a peak flux of 104 pfu at\n06/0125 UTC.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal\nto moderate levels on day one (07 Sep) due to the anticipated arrival of\nthe 04 Sep CME. On days two and three (08-09 Sep) 2 MeV electron flux is\nexpected to increase back to high levels.\n\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at S1-S2\n(Minor-Moderate) levels on day one (07 Sep) and into the first part of\nday two (08 Sep). There remains a slight chance 10 MeV proton flux will\nbe above the S1 threshold into day three (09 Sep).\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe solar wind environment was at near background levels through the\nfirst half of the period. Solar wind speeds decreased from 470 km/s to\naround 430 km/s, total magnetic field strength was generally less than 5\nnT, and the Bz component was variable between +/- 3 nT. The phi angle\nwas predominately positive early in the day, then began to trend towards\na negative solar sector through the remainder of the day. At \napproximately 06/2308 UTC, an interplanetary shock was observed at the\nDSCOVR spacecraft, signalling the likely arrival of the 4 Sep CME. Wind\nspeeds increased sharply from near 450 km/s to just over 600 km/s, with\ntotal field strength increasing from 4 nT to 16 nT.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced for the next\ntwo days (07-08 Sep) due to anticipated effects from the 04 CME. There\nis a chance the environment will remain enhanced into day three (09\nSep) with the possible arrival of the 6 Sep CME late on 08 Sep/early on\n09 Sep, and possible interaction with a recurrent, negative polarity CH\nHSS.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influences from the 4\nSep CME.\n\n.Forecast...\nG3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are likely for the next three days\n(07-09 Sep) as a result of an inbound CME from 04 Sep, followed by the\narrival of the CME associated with the X9 flare, mid-to-late on day two\n(08 Sep).\n\nExact time taken from: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-07T02:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T10:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.28", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-09-06 14:57\n-Time at C2: 2017-09-06 12:24\n-Radial speed: 1238.0 km/s\n-Half angle: 44 deg\n-Eruption location: S15W23\nInferences:\n-Associated flare: X9.3 (S08W33). Peak at 2017-09-06 11:53\nPredictions for Earth:\n-In-situ shock speed: 836.42 km/s\n- Shock arrival time: 2017-09-08 10:25 (i.e. predicted transit time: 46.03 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-07T05:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.50", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-09-06T14:30Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1200\nLongitude (deg): 15W\nLatitude (deg): 10S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 50\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: DUTY ADVISOR" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM + ESWF", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-07T05:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.83", "predictionNote" : "CME take-off date & UTC time: Sep-6-2017 at 16h:00min\ngamma = 0.10×10-7 km-1, w = 450-500 km/s,\nR0 = 27 rs, v0 = 1300-1500 km/s, width = 40-45°, long = 30-35°\nRtarget = 1.01 AU \n\nImpact speed at target (at 1.01 AU): 800-900 km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (NSSC SEPC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-07T08:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.08", "predictionNote" : "Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-08T13:00Z,(-7,+7)h\nConfidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0% \nMAX solar wind speed : (620,797)km/s\nMAX density : 11cm-3\nPredicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5 - 7\nPrediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) \n\nCharacteristics parameters of CME on Sep 6 for propagation:\npropagation velocity (km/s): 1190 km/s\nLongitude (deg): W13\nLatitude (deg): S18\nAngular width (deg): 107\nInformation of related flare:\nYYYYMMDD HHMM MAX END LAT LON IB\n20170906 1153 1202 1210 S09 W37 X9.3\n\nrespect to characteristics parameters of CME on Sep 4 for propagation:\npropagation velocity (km/s): 1250 km/s\nLongitude (deg): W04\nLatitude (deg): S13\nAngular width (deg): 63\nInformation of related flare:\nYYYYMMDD HHMM MAX END LAT LON IB\n20170904 2028 2033 2037 S08 W16 M5.5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-07T08:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T07:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.95", "predictionNote" : "probabilistic version of DBM: Drag based ensemble model (DBEM)\n\nModel & CME input parameters:\nCME take off date & time: 2017-09-06 16:00 +/- 30 min\nCME initial speed: (1400 +/- 100) km/s \nCME halfwidth: (43+/-5) deg\nCME longitude: (33+/-5) deg\nSW speed: (475+/-50) km/s\ngamma: (0.1+/-0.05) ×10-7 km-1\n\nNotes:\nImpact speed at target: 820 km/s (-113,+165; 95% confidence interval)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-07T09:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T10:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.50", "predictionNote" : "% Compiled module: EAM_V2.\n\nCME speed from CACTUS:\n06/09/2017 12:24 UT\nmin V = 106\nmax V = 1497\n\nMost pr. speed:\nV = 1100\ndV = 250\n\nDuration in seconds: 165167.45\nDuration in days: 1.9116603\n\nAcceleration of the CME: -3.24 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 636.1 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 08/09/2017 Time: 10:16 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-07T12:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T16:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 14.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "9.97", "predictionNote" : "------------------------------------\n------------------------------------\nEllpise parameters:\nDirection from Earth [deg.]: 10.0\nHalf width [deg.]: 50\nAspect ratio (a/b): 1.25\n------------------------------------\n------------------------------------\nDBM parameters:\nInitial distance [solar radii]: 20.00\nInitial time [UT]: 6-Sep-2017 15:00\nInitial speed [km/s]: 950.00\nDrag parameter [E-07/km]: 0.20\nBackground solar wind speed [km/s]: 500\n------------------------------------\n---------------------------------------------\nArrival time at Wind [UT]: 8-Sep-2017 16:30\nArrival speed at Wind [km/s]: 666\n---------------------------------------------\n---------------------------------------------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-07T14:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T15:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "7.62", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2017-09-07T18:10:48Z\n## Message ID: 20170907-AL-008\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on the CME with the ID 2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20170907-AL-002 and 20170906-AL-006).\n\nBased on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 40 ensemble members (see notes section), 40 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2017-09-08T06:58Z and 2017-09-09T02:02Z (average arrival 2017-09-08T15:48Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 87% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-07_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX064/20170906_122400_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX064_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-07_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX064/20170906_122400_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX064_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-07_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX064/20170906_122400_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX064_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-07_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX064/20170906_122400_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX064_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-07_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX064/Detailed_results_20170906_122400_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX064.txt\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-07T15:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T13:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.73", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2017-09-06T12:24:00\nSource Longtitude: W23\nSource Latitude: S15\nInitial Shock Speed: 1600 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 500 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.28 hrs\n\nOutput results: The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2017-09-08T13:52:11; the total transit time of the shock is 49.47 hrs, and the shock's propagation speed at the Earth is 777 km/s." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-07T15:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T10:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.58", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2017-09-06 12:24\nInitial Shock Speed: 1600 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 500 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.28 hrs\n\nOutput Results: The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2017-09-08T10:41:52; The total transit time of the shock is 46.3 hrs, and the shock's propagation speed at the Earth is 813 km/s." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ooty IPS", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-07T16:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 2.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "6.00", "predictionNote" : "Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations by Ooty\nRadio Telescope (ORT) of a large number of radio sources allow \nto estimate scintillation index - so called g-value. \nThe g-value represents the turbulence level of the solar-wind.\nThe presence of a transient (CME) and its associated disturbances can be identified by the enhanced\nlevel of g-value. Everyday observations IPS observations allow to track a transient (CME) propagation in the heliosphere.\n\nOur IPS observations show that the CME associated with the X9.3 flare\nis propagating with a velocity of ~900 - 1000 km/s, at a distance of ~0.5 AU\nat about 7 UT.\n\nThe CME is expected to reach the near-earth environment ~5 to 7 UT on\n08 SEP 2017." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-09T12:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-38.48", "predictionNote" : "Run details:\nDETAILS\nProject name: OPS\nCase name: AUTORUN\nRun by: BB\nRun start: Sat Sep 9 12:45:01 UTC 2017\nRun end: Sat Sep 9 12:59:41 UTC 2017\nHost machine: sws-enlil.sws.bom.gov.au\nGrid: 256x30x90\nWSA file: wsa_vel_21.5rs_2017090910_gong.fits\nCMEs: 1\n\n__________________________\nDFmenu\n20170906T1441\n-9\n19\n44\n1490\n\nhttp://enlil-web.sws.bom.gov.au/ips_enlil.php?run=OPS-AUTORUN&url=1" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-64294.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-08T12:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 84.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-64294.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2017-09-04T20:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2017-09-06T23:08Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : -23, "dstMinTime" : "2017-09-07T09:00Z", "cmeNote" : "Associated with M5.5 flare from AR 12673. CME start time was updated from 2017-09-04T23:06Z. Note that there was also a CME starting on 2017-09-04T19:39Z that was slightly slower but in a similar direction and was likely \"merged\" with the faster 2017-09-04T20:36Z CME.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-05T01:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-06T14:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.50", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/12988/1\nModel Inputs:\n2017-09-04T21:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=-10.0, Speed=1550.0, HalfAngle=46.0, Time21.5=2017-09-04T22:38Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2017-09-06T14:51Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =31.7 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.1\n(kp)90=5\n(kp)180=7\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-05T02:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-06T17:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.68", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-09-04 22:38\n-Time at C2: 2017-09-04 21:00\n-Radial speed: 1550.0 km/s\n-Half angle: 46 deg\n-Eruption location: S10W10\nInferences:\n-No flare association was found\nPredictions for Earth:\n-In-situ shock speed: 871.00 km/s\n-Shock arrival time: 2017-09-06 17:07 (i.e. predicted transit time: 44.12 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-05T08:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-06T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.43", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2017 Sep 05 0842 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nAnalysis of the coronagraph data of yesterdays CME indicate that the\nprojected speed of the first ejection measures between 500 and 1000 km/s.\nHowever, the projected speed of the second faster ejection is close to\n1500km/s.\nBased on the drag based model, arrival of the associated CME shock front\ncan be expected around UT noon September 6, when Solar wind speed is likely\nto reach values of over 800km/s.\nAssociated geomagnetic storms are expected and could potentially reach\nmajor to severe levels.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n\nFrom: Solar Influences Data analysis Center \nSubject: CME arrival alert\nDate: September 5, 2017 at 4:31:06 AM EDT\nTo: \nReply-To: \n\nThis mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.\nexpected arrival time: 2017-09-06T12:00:00\ntime_uncertainty: 8\nmin_estimated_peak_K: 5\nmax_estimated_peak_K: 8\nprobability_of_arrival: 90" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (British Geological Survey)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-05T08:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-07T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.40", "predictionNote" : "Geomagnetic storm forecast. Chance of aurora on the night of 7 September 2017.\n------------------------------------------------------------\nhttp://mailchi.mp/bgs/geomagnetic-disturbance-alert-07-09-2017?e=e25b2d5c1f\nhttp://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk\n\n\n** Geomagnetic Disturbance Alert\n------------------------------------------------------------\n\n\n** 7 September 2017\n------------------------------------------------------------\n\n\n** British Geological Survey\n------------------------------------------------------------\n\nThere is an increased chance of viewing the aurora on the night of 7th September 2017.\n\nA full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a long duration, moderate solar flare was observed yesterday evening. This emerged from an active region close to the centre of the solar disc. This CME is expected to arrive at Earth early on the morning of the 7th of September bringing geomagnetic STORM conditions. The solar wind speed is also currently elevated due to the waning influence of a northern polar coronal hole. This may further contribute to the enhancement of geomagnetic activity.\n\nAssuming clear dark skies, and that the geomagnetic field is suitably disturbed, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora. In the UK, those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland may have the best opportunities.\nFor more information on this event please visit:\n\nhttp://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/space_weather/alerts/alert_2017-09-07.html\n\nFor more advice on viewing the Northern Lights please visit:\nhttp://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/viewing_aurora.html\n\nFor current UK activity levels please see:\nhttp://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/space_weather/Global_activity_now.html\n\nSee where people are talking about the aurora in the UK now:\nhttp://www.bgs.ac.uk/citizenScience/geosocial/home.html\n\n============================================================\n** follow on Twitter (https://www.twitter.com/BGSauroraAlert/)\n| ** friend on Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/BritishGeologicalSurvey)\n| ** forward to a friend (http://us5.forward-to-friend1.com/forward?u=f5af5daa8514a1b71c00e5cf6&id=8c1538c510&e=e25b2d5c1f)\n\nCopyright © 2017 British Geological Survey, All rights reserved.\nYou are receiving this email because you signed up to our Space Weather Alert Email service at our website http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-05T09:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-06T06:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.47", "predictionNote" : "Compiled module: CME_KINEMATICS_MODEL_PM2017.\n\nCME speed from CACTUS:\n04/09/2017 19:12\nmin V = 240\nmax V = 2016\n\nMost pr. speed:\nV = 1465\ndV = 350\n\nDuration in seconds: 122947.93\nDuration in days: 1.4230084\n\nAcceleration of the CME: -5.39 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME at 1 AU: 882.8 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 06/09/2017 Time: 06:45 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM + ESWF", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-05T10:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-07T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.80", "predictionNote" : "Model & CME input parameters:\n\nCME take-off date & UTC time: 05.09.2017 at 02h:00min\nγ = 0.10×10-7 km-1, w = 400-450 km/s,\nR0 = 30 rSun, v0 = 700-1000 km/s, λ = 30°, φCME = 15°\nRtarget = 1.01 AU, φtarget = 0°" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-05T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-06T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.63", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2017 Sep 05 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at high levels due to Region 2673 (S08W22,\nDkc/beta-gamma-delta) producing multiple M-class flares, the largest of\nwhich was a M5 flare observed at 04/2033 UTC. This region showed steady\ngrowth throughout the period, in addition to becoming more complex\nmagnetically. Region 2674 (N14E01, Fhi/beta) was relatively stable\nproducing only one C1/sf flare early in the period. The remaining\nregions were stable and inactive.\n\nInitial available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery indicated a likely\nasymmetric full halo CME was associated with the M5 flare from Region\n2673. In addition, Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps were observed\naround the time of the M5 flare, beginning at 04/2042 UTC, as well as \n10cm radio bursts. Initial analysis of WSA/Enlil model output determined\nthe CME to arrive mid-to-late on 6 Sep. Additional analysis of the CME\nwill be conducted to gather a consensus arrival time/intensity forecast.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the\nnext three days (05-07 Sep) mostly due to the flare potential and recent\nhistory of Region 2673. Radio blackouts reaching the R1-R2\n(Minor-Moderate) levels are expected for the next three days (05-07\nSep), with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts.\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum\nflux of 15,800 pfu observed at 04/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux values observed an enhancement that was associated with the\nM5 flare from Region 2673, reaching S2 (Moderate) levels (peak flux: 106\npfu at 05/0720 UTC).\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high\nlevels for the next three days (04-06 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux is expected to continue at S1 (Minor) levels over the next\nthree days.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters remained elevated due to influences from a\npolar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were steady\naround 475 km/s for most of the reporting period, then began to increase\nto around 585 km/s near the end of the day. Total magnetic field\nstrength was at a nominal 5 nT through about 04/1600 UTC, increased to 9\nnT briefly, then leveled back off late in the day. Bz was predominately\nvariable, then remained southward for several hours, seeing a maximum\nsouthward deflection to -7 nT. Phi angle was mostly in a positive\norientation, but began to show signs of rotation by midday.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe solar wind environment is expected to continue to trend towards\nbackground levels late on day one (05 Sep). Enhanced levels are expected\non days two and three (06-07 Sep) due to possible impacts from the 04\nSep CME.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated\nG1-Minor geomagnetic storming period at the end of the day, likely\nassociated with sustained -Bz.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with\nisolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming periods early in the period, as\nthe CH HSS influence tapers over the next day (05 Sep). Days two and\nthree (06-07 Sep) are expected to be elevated due to the arrival of the\n04 Sep CME. G2 (Moderate) conditions are expected, with isolated G3\n(Strong) conditions likely on both days.\n\nhttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-05T14:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-06T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.38", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-09-04T23:42Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1200\nLongitude (deg): W6\nLatitude (deg): S15\nHalf-angular width (deg): 41\n\nNotes: ENLIL has arrival time nearer 07/0200Z however background solar wind speed is considered significantly too low so predicted arrival time has been brought forward.\nSpace weather advisor: DUTY ADVISOR" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-05T19:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-07T03:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.57", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2017-09-05T19:34:20Z\n## Message ID: 20170905-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: O-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2017-09-04T20:36Z.\n(Please note: This simulation is an update to include both CMEs that were observed late on 2017-09-04. \nThe 2017-09-04T20:36Z CME was previously denoted as 2017-09-04T21:00:00-CME-001 in Notification 20170905-AL-003, with a start time based on the earliest available image in the LASCO data of the CME. Updated LASCO data showed an earlier start time, and this CME now has Activity ID 2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001.)\n\nEstimated speed: ~1114 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2017-09-04T19:39Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~710 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 26/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2017-09-04T19:39:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth and OSIRIS-REx at about 2017-09-07T03:45Z (plus or minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001, 2017-09-04T19:39:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_234500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_234500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_234500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_234500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_234500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_234500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_234500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_234500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_234500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M5.5 flare with ID 2017-09-04T20:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2017-09-04T20:33Z (see notification(s) 20170904-AL-001, 20170904-AL-002).\n\nThis CME event (2017-09-04T19:39:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.5 flare with ID 2017-09-04T15:25:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2017-09-04T15:30Z and M1.0 flare with ID 2017-09-04T18:05:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2017-09-04T18:22Z.\n\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-05T20:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-07T09:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 14.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 89.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.62", "predictionNote" : "This was a 2-CME ensemble simulation. \n\nCME #1 Observed Time: 2017-09-04T20:36Z \nCME Note: Flare, dimming and expanding loops and wave from AR 2673 starting 19:19UT, signatures visible in all AIA wavelengths. \n\nCME #2 Observed Time: 2017-09-04T19:30Z \nCME Note: The signatures of this CME are somewhat subtle, flare and some loop expansion visible in AIA 171/193 starting after the M1.0 flare (2017-09-04 15:25) lifting off during the M1.5 flare (2017-09-04 18:05). \n\nPrediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) \nPrediction Method Note:\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2017-09-05T20:27:45Z\n## Message ID: 20170905-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001 and 2017-09-04T19:39:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20170905-AL-004). \n\nBased on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 40 ensemble members (see notes section), 40 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2017-09-07T00:58Z and 2017-09-07T23:09Z (average arrival 2017-09-07T09:02Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 89% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-7 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-05_ncmes2_sims40_HILOX063/20170904_203600_ncmes2_sims40_HILOX063_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-05_ncmes2_sims40_HILOX063/20170904_203600_ncmes2_sims40_HILOX063_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-05_ncmes2_sims40_HILOX063/20170904_203600_ncmes2_sims40_HILOX063_Earth_stack.gif\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-05_ncmes2_sims40_HILOX063/20170904_203600_ncmes2_sims40_HILOX063_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttps://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-09-05_ncmes2_sims40_HILOX063/Detailed_results_20170904_203600_ncmes2_sims40_HILOX063.txt\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (British Geological Survey)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-07T15:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-07T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-16.23", "predictionNote" : "From: British Geological Survey \nDate: September 7, 2017 at 11:22:19 AM EDT\nTo: \nSubject: Geomagnetic Disturbance Alert 08 September 2017\nReply-To: \n\n\n\nGeomagnetic storm forecast. Chance of aurora on the night of 7 September 2017.\n------------------------------------------------------------\nhttp://mailchi.mp/bgs/geomagnetic-disturbance-alert-2017-09-08?e=e25b2d5c1f\nhttp://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk\n\n\n** Geomagnetic Disturbance Alert\n------------------------------------------------------------\n\n\n** 7 September 2017\n------------------------------------------------------------\n\n\n** British Geological Survey\n------------------------------------------------------------\n\nThere is an increased chance of viewing the aurora on the night of 7th September 2017.\n\nA full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a long duration, moderate solar flare was observed yesterday evening. This emerged from an active region close to the centre of the solar disc. This CME is expected to arrive at Earth early on the morning of the 7th of September bringing geomagnetic STORM conditions. The solar wind speed is also currently elevated due to the waning influence of a northern polar coronal hole. This may further contribute to the enhancement of geomagnetic activity.\n\nAssuming clear dark skies, and that the geomagnetic field is suitably disturbed, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora. In the UK, those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland may have the best opportunities.\nFor more information on this event please visit:\n\nhttp://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/space_weather/alerts/alert_2017-09-07.html\n\nFor more advice on viewing the Northern Lights please visit:\nhttp://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/viewing_aurora.html\n\nFor current UK activity levels please see:\nhttp://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/space_weather/Global_activity_now.html\n\nSee where people are talking about the aurora in the UK now:\nhttp://www.bgs.ac.uk/citizenScience/geosocial/home.html\n\n============================================================\n** follow on Twitter (https://www.twitter.com/BGSauroraAlert/)\n| ** friend on Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/BritishGeologicalSurvey)\n| ** forward to a friend (http://us5.forward-to-friend1.com/forward?u=f5af5daa8514a1b71c00e5cf6&id=2cd01b945f&e=e25b2d5c1f)\n\nCopyright © 2017 British Geological Survey, All rights reserved.\nYou are receiving this email because you signed up to our Space Weather Alert Email service at our website http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk.\n\nOur mailing address is:\nBritish Geological Survey\nLyell Centre\nResearch Avenue South\nEdinburgh, Midlothian EH14 4AP\nUnited Kingdom\n\nEmail Marketing Powered by MailChimp\nhttp://www.mailchimp.com/monkey-rewards/?utm_source=freemium_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=monkey_rewards&aid=f5af5daa8514a1b71c00e5cf6&afl=1\n** unsubscribe from this list (http://bgs.us5.list-manage.com/unsubscribe?u=f5af5daa8514a1b71c00e5cf6&id=2f372f1c3a&e=e25b2d5c1f&c=2cd01b945f)\n| ** update subscription preferences (http://bgs.us5.list-manage1.com/profile?u=f5af5daa8514a1b71c00e5cf6&id=2f372f1c3a&e=e25b2d5c1f)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2017-09-08T17:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-06T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-41.87", "predictionNote" : "Run details:\nDETAILS\nProject name: OPS\nCase name: AUTORUN\nRun by: BB\nRun start: Fri Sep 8 16:45:01 UTC 2017\nRun end: Fri Sep 8 17:00:01 UTC 2017\nHost machine: sws-enlil.sws.bom.gov.au\nGrid: 256x30x90\nWSA file: wsa_vel_21.5rs_2017090814_gong.fits\nCMEs: 3\n\n__________________________\nDFmenu\n20170904T2239\n-14\n3\n45\n1504\n\n__________________________\nDFmenu\n20170905T0141\n-4\n48\n40\n554\n\n__________________________\nDFmenu\n20170906T1441\n-9\n19\n44\n1490\n\nhttp://enlil-web.sws.bom.gov.au/ips_enlil.php?run=OPS-AUTORUN&url=1" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-06T21:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 82.25, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.125, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-64317.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-09-06T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 84.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-64317.80", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2017-07-14T01:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2017-07-14T01:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2017-07-16T05:14Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : -69, "dstMinTime" : "2017-07-16T16:00Z", "cmeNote" : "There was an M2.4 flare starting at 01:07, clear dimmings and rising/opening loops.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-07-14T09:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-16T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.82", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2017 Jul 14 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached moderate levels this period. Region 2665\n(S06W36, Dhi/beta) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 14/0209 UTC\nwhich was accompanied by several low-level radio bursts and Type-IV\nradio sweeps. An associated asymmetric halo CME was observed in LASCO\nC2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 14/0125 UTC, and initial analysis of\nthis event suggests arrival late on 16 Jul.\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for\nadditional M-class flare activity over the next three days (14-16 Jul).\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit became\nenhanced following the M2 flare and exceeded the S1 (Minor) solar\nradiation storm threshold at 14/0900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux reached a peak of 12 pfu at 14/1025 UTC. The greater than 2\nMeV electron flux reached moderate levels this period.\n \n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto continue above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold through\nearly on day two (14-15 Jul). Proton flux levels are expected to\ndecrease below the S1 threshold by midday on day two through day three\n(16 Jul), but there is a chance for an additional enhancement as Region\n2665 approaches the west limb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is\nexpected to continue at moderate levels throughout the forecast period\n(14-16 Jul).\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were at background levels under a nominal solar\nwind regime. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values of around\n420 km/s to end-of-period values near 350-360 km/s. Total field\nstrength values ranged between 1-3 nT and Bz hovered around 0 nT through\nmost of the period. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away) solar\nsector orientation throughout the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced late on\nday one through day three (14-16 Jul) due to the influence of a negative\npolarity CH HSS becomes. An additional, more pronounced, solar wind\nenhancement is expected late on day three (16 Jul) due to continued CH\nHSS influence combined with the anticipated arrival of the asymmetric\nhalo CME from 14 Jul.\n \nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on\nday one (14 Jul) followed by unsettled to active levels on day two (15\nJul) due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. The\nanticipated arrival of the 14 Jul CME combined with continued CH HSS\ninfluence is expected to cause periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm\nconditions with G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2017 Jul 14 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 14-Jul 16 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 14-Jul 16 2017\n\n Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16\n00-03UT 1 4 3 \n03-06UT 1 4 3 \n06-09UT 1 3 2 \n09-12UT 1 3 2 \n12-15UT 1 3 2 \n15-18UT 2 3 5 (G1)\n18-21UT 2 3 6 (G2)\n21-00UT 3 3 6 (G2)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-07-14T12:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-16T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.40", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2017 Jul 14 1250 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe CME mentioned in previous PRESTO is a full halo CME, visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from 01:25 UT today (14-July-2017). The CME is initiated by M2.4 class flare (START: 01:07 UT; PEAK: 02:09 UT) and subsequent activity of NOAA 2665 NOAA and 2666 ARs that are situated currently close to the solar disk center.\n\nThe detailed analysis of the CME speed gives the value 900 km/s (plane-of-the-sky speed). Further acceleration of the CME is very likely. The arrival of a shock wave associated to this CME at the Earth can be expected from the day three (16 July-2017) around noon (estimated with the Drag Based Model).\n\nThe > 10 MeV and > 50 MeV proton fluxes at 1 AU have risen today at 04:10 UT. The > 10 MeV flux has reached the critical threshold of 10 pfu at 07:10 UT, and it’s current values is 14 pfu. Energetic protons for this SEP event are accelerated by the shock wave (due to 3 hrs delay between flare and proton detection).\n\nUpon the shock arrival geomagnetic activity may rise till Kp=5. There is a high chance for the Energetic Storm Particle (ESP) event to occur.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2017-07-14T13:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-16T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.90", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-07-14T05:15Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 800\nLongitude (deg): W020\nLatitude (deg): S05\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: Second CME analysed in combination with a slightly lower velocity (700km/s) and a more westerly longitude (40W) based on LASCO and STEREO-A imagery.\nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-07-14T13:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-16T21:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.75", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2017-07-14T01:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~750 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 40/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2017-07-14T01:36:00-CME-001\n\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2017-07-16T21:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-5 (below minor to minor)." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2017-07-14T15:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-16T08:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.40", "predictionNote" : "CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-07-14 05:29\n- Time at C2: 2017-07-14 01:36\n- Radial speed: 750.0 km/s\n- Half angle: 49 deg\n- Eruption location: S09W40\nInferences:\n- Associated flare: M2.4 (S06W29). Peak at 2017-07-14 01:07\nPredictions for Earth:\n- In-situ shock speed: 702.81 km/s\n- Shock arrival time: 2017-07-16 08:53 (i.e. predicted transit time: 55.30 hours)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-07-14T18:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-16T16:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.2, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.75, "confidenceInPercentage" : 97.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.45", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2017-07-14T18:47:43Z\n## Message ID: 20170714-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on the CME with ID 2017-07-14T01:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20170714-AL-003). \n\nBased on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 47 (97%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2017-07-16T04:38Z and 2017-07-17T04:36Z (average arrival 2017-07-16T16:51Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 74% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-07-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX062/20170714_013600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX062_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-07-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX062/20170714_013600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX062_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-07-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX062/20170714_013600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX062_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-07-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX062/20170714_013600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX062_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2017-07-14_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX062/Detailed_results_20170714_013600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX062.txt\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2017-07-14T20:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-16T08:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.90", "predictionNote" : "Compiled module: CME_KINEMATICS_MODEL_PM2017.\n\nCME speed from CACTUS:\n14/07/2017 02:48\nmin V = 318\nmax V = 1644\n\nMost pr. speed:\nV = 980\ndV = 250\n\nDuration in seconds: 198741.83\nDuration in days: 2.3002526\n\nAcceleration of the CME: -2.24 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME in ACE orbit: 535.0 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/07/2017 Time: 08:48 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-16T14:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 93.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.6, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-65583.70", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-16T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 93.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-65583.70", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2017-06-28T16:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2017-06-28T16:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2017-07-01T16:26Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Start time of the CME was modified", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2017-06-29T08:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-02T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 18.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 18.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "28.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.07", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): 390\nLongitude (deg): W015\nLatitude (deg): N03\nHalf-angular width (deg): 15\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Tony Gillard" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-06-29T10:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-03T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "43.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.40", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2017 Jun 29 1002 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA long duration event took place near AR 2664 (position N20W30) between\n12:30 and 21:00UT on 28 June. This was a very gradual event, with the x-ray\nflux staying at the B1 level for nearly 5 hours (from about 13UT till 18UT,\nno x-ray flare reported). SDO/AIA 193 imagery showed coronal dimming to the\nnorth and south of AR 2664. CACtus has the associated coronal mass ejection\n(CME) currently catalogued as 2 separate CMEs, both first seen in LASCO/C2\nat 16:24UT. The bulk of this partial halo CME seems to be headed to the\nsouthwest, and has an angular width of about 170 degrees. The CME is very\nweak, and was not identified in the ST-A/COR2 imagery (though another\nunrelated CME directed to the east can clearly be seen around 16UT). The\nCME is also moving rather slow, with Plane-of-the-Sky speeds between 175\nand 215 km/s, and estimated true speeds of around 275 km/s. A glancing blow\nfrom this CME is expected around noon on 03 July +/-12 hours. At most\nactive geomagnetic conditions are expected.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-06-29T17:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-02T19:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.68", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Spitzer, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2017-06-29T17:45:06Z\n## Message ID: 20170629-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2017-06-28T15:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~360 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -80/-2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2017-06-28T15:24:00-CME-001\n\n2: S-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2017-06-28T16:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~400 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 17/37 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2017-06-28T16:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the 2017-06-28T15:24Z CME may affect Spitzer (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Spitzer at 2017-07-02T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nThe simulation also indicates that the 2017-06-28T16:24Z CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2017-07-02T19:30Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2017-06-28T15:24:00-CME-001, 2017-06-28T16:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170629_010400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170629_010400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170629_010400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170629_010400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170629_010400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170629_010400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170629_010400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2017-06-30T09:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-03T04:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "36.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.77", "predictionNote" : "Compiled module: CME_KINEMATICS_MODEL_PM2017.\n\nCME speed from CACTUS:\n28/06/2017 16:20\nmin V = 150\nmax V = 230\n\nMost pr. speed:\nV = 250\ndV = 50\n\nDuration in seconds: 391850.83\nDuration in days: 4.5353105\nt2 is negative\n\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.69 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME in ACE orbit: 518.4 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 03/07/2017 Time: 05:10 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-03T02:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "33.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-65932.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-07-03T00:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "32.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-65932.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2017-05-23T06:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2017-05-23T06:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2017-05-27T14:47Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-05-23T21:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-05-26T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "89.48", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2017-05-23T22:59:29Z\n## Message ID: 20170523-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nS-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2017-05-23T05:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~375 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 12/-7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2017-05-23T05:00:00-CME-001\n\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME will have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2017-05-26T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2017-05-23T05:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170523_152700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170523_152700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170523_152700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170523_152700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170523_152700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170523_152700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170523_152700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2017-05-24T08:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-05-26T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "78.45", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-05-23T11:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 600\nLongitude (deg): W26\nLatitude (deg): S03\nHalf-angular width (deg): 25\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Duty MOSWOC" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-05-24T13:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-05-26T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.38", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2017 May 24 1324 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSlow partial halo CME, with projected speed of about 192 km/s and angular\nwidth of about 122 degree, was detected by CACTUS at 05:24 UT on\n23-May-2017. The CME first seen as the clear large-scale dimming at EUV\nsolar disk images (PROBA2/SWAP and SDO/AIA) is associated with an eruption\nnear solar disk centre. WSA-ENLIL model indicates the possible CME arrival\nat Earth around noon on 26-May-2017. Active geomagnetic conditions may be\nexpected, with an isolated episode of a minor storm.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)", "submissionTime" : "2017-05-25T09:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-05-27T21:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.40", "predictionNote" : "Compiled module: CME_KINEMATICS_MODEL_PM2017.\n\nCME speed from CACTUS:\n23/05/2017 05:48\nmin V = 128\nmax V = 262\n\nMost pr. speed:\nV = 210\ndV = 40\n\nDuration in seconds: 400795.25\nDuration in days: 4.6388339\nt2 is negative\n\nAcceleration of the CME: 0.82 m/s^2\nVelocity of the CME in ACE orbit: 537.9 km/s\nExpected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 27/05/2017 Time: 21:07 UT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-05-25T13:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-05-27T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.08", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-05-27T01:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-66774.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-05-26T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-66774.15", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2017-04-30T10:40:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2017-04-30T10:40Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2017-05-04T17:30Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME arrival is not clear since it appears to be combined with a solar sector boundary", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2017-04-30T22:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-05-03T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "91.33", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-04-30T10:40UTC\nRadial velocity (km/s): 580km/s\nLongitude (deg): 31 West\nLatitude (deg): 12 South\nHalf-angular width (deg): 19 degrees\n\nNotes: The main trajectory in LASCO C2/C3 initially appears to be off the direct Earth line. But it has been difficult fitting the analysis with Stereo A difference imagery. Evidence that a coronal footprint from the CME (SDO 193) with an area of coronal dimming extending further east, and GONG imagery indicating a filament eruption nearer to centre disc, suggests only moderate confidence in a miss. About 30% of the ENLIL ensemble members suggest a detectable arrival at Earth, approx. ranging from plus or minus 9 hours. If it arrives the most likely max Kp will be 4 or 5.\nSpace weather advisor: MSWOC" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-05-03T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-67323.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-05-03T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-67323.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2017-04-18T19:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2017-04-18T19:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2017-04-21T11:20Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The arrival of this transient appears to be combined with a CH HSS arrival.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-04-19T08:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-04-21T03:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.47", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2017 Apr 19 0852 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo CME was seen at 19:48 UT on April 18 (LASCO-C2), directed\ntowards the east with speeds around 900 km/s. It erupted from NOAA AR 2651\nas this region rotated into view from the east limb. It was associated with\na C5.5 flare peaking at 20:10 UT on April 18. Due to the location of the\nsource region, only a shock could be expected to arrive at the Earth on\nApril 21.\n\nThe solar wind at the Earth is showing signs of compression preceding the\nexpected high speed stream, with KDourbes reaching only 3 but Kp going to\n5. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions can be expected in the next 48 h.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-04-21T03:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-67641.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-04-21T03:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-67641.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2017-03-19T18:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2017-03-19T18:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2017-03-23T08:51Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME start time is not completely accurate since it is a very faint partial halo. It was changed from 2017-03-20T06:00Z to 2017-03-19T18:24Z. The shock arrival is not clear since CME may have been combined and picked up by the HSS that arrived at Earth on 2017-03-21T00:00Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2017-03-20T14:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-03-24T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.90", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/12297/1\nModel Inputs:\n2017-03-19T18:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-24.0, Speed=280.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2017-03-20T03:59Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2017-03-24T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170320_035900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2017-03-20T17:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-03-24T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "33.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.23", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-03-20T07:03Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 305 \nLongitude (deg): E22\nLatitude (deg): S26\nHalf-angular width (deg): 31\n\nNotes: Very faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO imagery difficult to analyse, so used STEREO-A imagery for analysis. Bulk of CME expected to pass south of Earth, but a glancing blow from the periphery of the CME is possible.\nSpace weather advisor: Gareth Powell" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-03-24T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-68340.08", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2017-03-24T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-68340.08", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2016-11-05T04:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2016-11-05T04:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2016-11-09T05:28Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Filament Eruption off the northern Hemisphere giving a very wide-angle partial halo. Another CME came off the farside and eastern limb at a similar time. Evident in SOHO and STEREO imagery after 05/0200UTC.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-11-05T17:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-11-08T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "83.60", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/11502/1\nModel Inputs:\n2016-11-05T04:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=26.0, Lat.=23.0, Speed=487.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2016-11-05T12:17Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2016-11-08T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =8.0 (+- 8 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-11-06T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-11-08T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.97", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2016 Nov 06 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was very low and Regions 2605 (N08W48, Bxo/beta) and 2606\n(N11E36, Axx/alpha) were stable throughout the period. A filament\neruption centered near N24W15 was observed in SDO 193 imagery between\n05/0200-0500 UTC and an associated CME was observed in C2 coronagraph\nimagery beginning at 05/0424 UTC. Forecaster analysis and ENLIL model\noutput suggest CME arrival early on day three (08 Nov); see geomagnetic\nforecast for additional details.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next\nthree days (06-08 Nov).\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period\nwith a peak flux of 3,750 pfu observed at 05/1615 UTC. The greater than\n10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on\nday one and two (06-07 Nov) but is expected to decrease to normal levels\non day three (08 Nov) in response to elevated geomagnetic field\nactivity.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were at background levels this period. Total\nfield strength values varied between 2-5 nT and the Bz component was\ngenerally northward. Solar wind speeds were steady between 320-375 km/s\nand the phi angle was in a positive (away) solar sector orientation.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to continue at background levels on\ndays one and two (06-07 Nov). The onset of a positive polarity CH HSS\ncombined with the anticipated arrival of the 05 Nov CME on day three (08\nNov) is expected to enhance the near-Earth solar wind environment.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet under a background solar wind\nenvironment.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on days one and two (06-07\nNov) under a nominal solar wind regime. The weak influence of a\npositive polarity CH HSS combined with the anticipated arrival of the 05\nNov CME is expected to cause periods of active field conditions, with a\nchance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms, on day three (08 Nov).\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2016-11-06T01:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-11-08T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.47", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-11-05T10:07Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 706\nLongitude (deg): W019\nLatitude (deg): N17\nHalf-angular width (deg): 28\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Mark Seltzer" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-11-06T11:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-11-08T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.30", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2016 Nov 06 1103 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo CME is visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from 00:00 UT onwards on November 5. The ejection is mostly directed towards the North-East and has an angular extent of 200 degrees (although the North-East component is only very faint, causing Cactus to underestimate the angular extent). The speed is measured to be at most 400 km/s. The origin of the event is most likely be related to the filament eruption around 00:00 UT November 5, in the North-Western quadrant. Hence, Earth may experience the passage of the flanks of the CME late on November 8. Given the low speed and the direction of the CME effects are estimated not to be very strong with possibly minor up to moderate geomagnetic storms.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-11-08T11:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 57.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-71559.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-11-08T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 57.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-71559.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2016-10-09T02:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2016-10-09T02:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2016-10-12T21:21Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Halo CME seen in C2 at 10-09T02:36Z and C3 at 10-09T06:30Z. Visible to the NW as seen by STA at 10-08T21:09Z. Source is unclear.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-10-09T17:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-10-13T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.25", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2016 Oct 10 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was very low. The largest flare of the period was a B5\nflare at 09/1903 UTC from Region 2598 (N14W38, Cai/beta). Slight growth\nwas observed in the intermediate spots of Region 2598. Slight decay was\nobserved in the trailing spots of Region 2600 (N13E33, Cso/beta). \nRegion 2599 (S15W10, Cko/beta) was relatively stable.\n\nWSA-ENLIL analysis of the partial halo CME, first observed in\ncoronagraph imagery at approximately 09/0200 UTC, indicated an arrival\nmid to late on 13 Sep.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for\nC-class flares over the next three days (10-12 Oct).\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak\nflux of 3,515 pfu at 09/1355 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux\nwas steady at background levels throughout the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate\nto high levels over the next three days (10-12 Oct). The greater than\n10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout\nthe forecast period.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were at background levels through the period with\nsolar wind speeds between 367 km/s and 422 km/s. Density increased from\n8 p/cc to 12 p/cc. Total field was between 2-6 nT while the Bz\ncomponent was mostly south reaching a maximum of -5 nT. Phi angle was\noriented in a positive (away) sector.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels\nthroughout the forecast period (10-12 Oct).\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (10 Oct) with\nquiet to unsettled conditions on days two and three (11-12 Oct).\n\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2016 Oct 11 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 11-Oct 13 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 11-Oct 13 2016\n\n Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13\n00-03UT 1 2 2 \n03-06UT 1 3 2 \n06-09UT 1 2 2 \n09-12UT 1 2 2 \n12-15UT 1 1 2 \n15-18UT 1 1 4 \n18-21UT 2 2 4 \n21-00UT 2 2 5 (G1)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2016-10-10T11:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-10-13T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.35", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-10-09T11:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 363 km/s\nLongitude (deg): 2 deg East\nLatitude (deg): 9 deg North\nHalf-angular width (deg): 31 deg\n\nNotes: This CME may be too slow to be detectable at Earth as close to ambient solar wind speed, but is due to arrive late on 12th or early 13th. It seems to be associated with a filament eruption in the NE quadrant late on the 8th. Stereo A now seems to be in a position where a 3D view is possible once more. \nSpace weather advisor: Duty MOSWC forecaster." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-10-10T13:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-10-13T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.47", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2016 Oct 10 1035 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA full halo CME is visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from 2:00 UT onwards on October 9. The ejection is mostly directed towards the North-East and has an angular extent of 360 degrees (although the South-West component is only very faint, causing Cactus to underestimate the angular extent). \nThe event is also seen in STEREO A / COR2 data where it is directed to the North-West (as seen from STEREO A) with a rather restricted angular extent of around 110 degrees. The speed is measured to be at most 300 km/s.\nThe origin of the event is not entirely clear but must likely be related to the filament eruption around 16:00 UT October 8, in the North-Eastern quadrant.\nThe restricted angular extent in STEREO A data indicates that the Earth is likely to be located only at the edge of the CME passage. Hence, Earth may experience the passage of the flanks of the CME late on October 13 or early October 14. Given the low speed and the direction of the CME effects are estimated not to be very strong with possibly minor up to moderate geomagnetic storms.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-10-10T14:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-10-14T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "26.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.70", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/11367/1\nModel Inputs:\n2016-10-09T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=243.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2016-10-09T15:56Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2016-10-14T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2016-10-12T03:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-10-14T11:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "38.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.63", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-10-09 02:00\nInitial Shock Speed: 300 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 330 km/s\nDuration Time: 0 hr\n\nOutput Results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2016-10-14 11:43:46" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2016-10-12T03:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-10-12T04:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 0.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.60", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-10-09 02:00\nSource Longtitude: -22\nSource Latitude: 10\nInitial Shock Speed: 300 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 330 km/s\nDuration Time: 0 hr\n\nOutput results:The shock will not reach our Earth!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-10-13T13:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 26.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-72215.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-10-13T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-72215.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2016-07-28T22:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2016-07-28T22:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2016-08-02T11:23Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The source of this CME is a filament eruption seen close to disk center in AIA 193/304 starting ~18:00 (with an activation/slow rise phase starting several hours earlier).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-07-29T13:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-08-02T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 33.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "93.47", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2016 Jul 29 1230 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 60729\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Jul 2016, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Jul 2016 until 31 Jul 2016)\nSOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jul 2016 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 021\nPREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jul 2016 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 31 Jul 2016 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 007\nCOMMENT: Flaring activity has been very low, no C-class flares in past 24\nh. There are two active regions on the visible solar disc, Catania 13 (no\nNOAA number) that emerged close to disk center yesterday and Catania 14\n(NOAA AR 2570) that rotated over the east limb. No large flares expected\n(although C-class flares are possible).\nA filament erupted close to disk center starting around 16:00 UT on July\n28, it produced a slow and faint CME directed to the southwest first seen\nat 22:36 UT on LASCO C2. This CME could have an Earth directed component,\nthat could reach the Earth on August 2.\nUnsettled to active geomagnetic conditions were registered in the past 24\nh, due to the effect of a high speed stream that reached 600 km/s with\nmagnetic field intensities up to 20 nT (without long periods of negative\nBz). Solar wind speed is still high, at 600 km/s, with interplanetary\nmagnetic field magnitude of 5 nT. Unsettled to active conditions are\nexpected for the next 48 h.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 021, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Jul 2016\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 023\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 070\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 026\nAK WINGST : 017\nESTIMATED AP : 019\nESTIMATED ISN : 007, BASED ON 36 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-07-29T16:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-08-01T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "90.50", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (missions near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2016-07-29T16:53:39Z\n## Message ID: 20160729-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nS-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2016-07-28T22:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~350 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2016-07-28T22:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric analysis and modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may have an impact on NASA missions near Earth. The event associated with solar filament eruption is very complex and the transient may interact and merge with another approaching high speed solar wind stream region. It is estimated that the CME may reach Earth between 2016-08-01 and 2016-08-02 and cause moderate Kp 4-6 level of geomagnetic activity. Updates on this event will be provided when available.\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2016-07-28T22:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160729_085000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160729_085000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160729_085000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160729_085000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160729_085000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160729_085000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160729_085000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160729_085000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160729_085000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2016-07-30T05:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-08-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "77.63", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/1000Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 360\nLongitude (deg): 27W\nLatitude (deg): 9N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 37 deg\n\nNotes: With the initial CME speed close to or less than solar wind speeds there may not be a detectable shock, but an increase in density as it may arrive with the CIR.\nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-08-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 46.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-73929.55", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-08-02T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 46.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-73929.55", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2016-07-17T12:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2016-07-17T12:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2016-07-19T23:05Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Slow dimming and field line evolution visible in AIA images from 06:30-08:30. Note: the arrival listed here may not be due to this CME, but no other ICME could be found.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2016-07-17T17:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-07-20T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.08", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-07-17T20:34Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 497\nLongitude (deg): E036\nLatitude (deg): S08\nHalf-angular width (deg): 36\n\nNotes: Low confidence due to difficult analysis\nSpace weather advisor: Mark Seltzer" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-07-17T17:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-07-20T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.72", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2016 Jul 19 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels due to a C4 flare from Region 2565\n(N05W21, Cko/beta) at 18/0823 UTC. This region also produced a B6 flare\nat 18/1839 UTC, which was the only other notable flare during the\nperiod. Both Regions 2565 and 2567 (N05W11, Dki/beta) experienced slight\ngrowth in the peripheral spots, while Region 2569 exhibited slight\ngrowth in both the leader and trailer spots. Region 2566 (N10W25,\nAxx/alpha) had spots reemerge during the period, but remained a\nmagnetically simple spot group.\n\nAnalysis from the faint, asymmetric halo CME from 17 July suggested a\npossible impact from the slow moving plasma cloud sometime early on 21\nJul. Speeds analyzed indicated a relatively slow moving CME,\napproximately 450 km/s, with anticipated timing to coincide with the\narrival of the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). No new\nEarth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to reach low levels through the period (19-21\nJul) with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) due to\nflare potential from Regions 2565 and 2567, as well as the continued\ngrowth of Region 2569.\n\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with\na peak flux of 6,229 pfu observed at 18/1605 UTC. The greater than 10\nMeV proton flux continued at background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to\nhigh levels on day one and early on day two (19-20 Jul) in response to\nelevated wind speeds from CH HSS activity. On day two, electron flux\nlevels are expected to return to normal levels following a\nredistribution of particles due to the arrival of the anticipated CME.\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at\nbackground levels for the forecast period (19-21 Jul).\n\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a\nreturn to ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased\nthrough the period from about 460 km/s to near 360 km/s. Total magnetic\nfield strength ranged between 2-5 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated\nbetween +/-3 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive sector\nthroughout the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels on day\none and early on day two (19-20 Jul). Enhanced conditions are\nexpected early on day two and into day three (21 Jul) as a negative\npolarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position, as well as the\nanticipated arrival of the 17 Jul CME.\n\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through\nthe end of day one (19 Jul). Quiet to unsettled conditions are then\nexpected, with active periods likely on day two (20 Jul), due to effects\nfrom a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Active levels,\nwith a slight chance for G1 (minor) storm conditions are possible early\non day three (21 Jul) with the arrival of the anticipated CME,\ncombined with the CH HSS effects, before beginning to taper off near the\nend of the period." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-07-18T12:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-07-22T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "48.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.67", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2016 Jul 18 1221 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nOn 17 July, a long duration (5h50m) C1 event near and in the active region (AR) complex NOAA 2565/2567 peaked at 08:03UT. Coronal dimming to the east and west of the sunspot cluster was observed. Another eruptive event (also with coronal dimming) was observed in a spotless region in the southeast solar quadrant (S18E30) between 13UT and 15UT.\n\nAssociated with these eruptions were several faint and slow coronal mass ejections (CMEs), having widths between 70 and 120 degrees and partially overlapping. Hence, a partial halo CME cannot be excluded as LASCO/C2 imagery show them first resp. around 10:48UT (directed to the east), 11:24UT (south), 12:36UT (north), 12:48UT (east-southeast). In view of the coronal dimming observed in the NOAA 2565/2567 regions which were located near disk centre, it is expected that some of the related CMEs may have had an earth-directed component. True speeds were estimated to be between 290 and 350 km/s, with arrival time estimated to be 22 July at 00:00UT (+/- 12 hours).\n\nActive geomagnetic conditions are expected. A minor storming episode is not excluded in view of the possible interactions between the CMEs and with the wind streams from the coronal holes.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-07-18T16:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-07-21T00:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.85", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/11002/1\nModel Inputs:\n2016-07-17T11:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-3.0, Speed=386.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2016-07-17T18:18Z\n2016-07-17T12:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=-2.0, Speed=584.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2016-07-17T19:14Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2016-07-21T00:04Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =24.2 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160717_181800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-07-18T21:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-07-20T23:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.77, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.12, "confidenceInPercentage" : 91.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.87", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2016-07-18T21:05:31Z\n## Message ID: 20160718-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2016-07-17T11:24:00-CME-001 and 2016-07-17T12:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20160718-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Mars. For 37 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Mars between about 2016-07-22T03:38Z and 2016-07-22T12:16Z (average arrival 2016-07-22T07:05Z) for 18% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2016-07-20T13:46Z and 2016-07-21T10:39Z (average arrival 2016-07-20T23:32Z) for 91% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-07-18_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060/20160717_112400_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-07-18_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060/20160717_112400_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-07-18_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060/20160717_112400_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-07-18_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060/20160717_112400_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-07-18_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060/20160717_112400_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-07-18_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060/20160717_112400_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060_Mars_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-07-18_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060/Detailed_results_20160717_112400_ncmes2_sims37_HILOX060.txt\n\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2016-07-19T06:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-07-20T04:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.35", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-07-17 12:48:00\nSource Longtitude: -23\nSource Latitude: 5\nInitial Shock Speed: 497 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 400 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.2 hour\n\nOutput results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2016-07-20 04:39:00" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2016-07-19T06:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-07-21T06:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "31.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.27", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-07-17 12:48:00\nInitial Shock Speed: 497 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 400 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.2 hour\n\nOutput Results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2016-07-21 06:42:43" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-07-21T00:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 72.75, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "25.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-74253.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-07-20T23:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "24.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-74253.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2016-05-02T08:42:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2016-05-02T08:42Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2016-05-06T15:48Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The CME may have arrived on 2016-05-06T15:48Z. ACE magnetic field data shows a disturbance in form of a flux rope, plus density increased while the temperature decreased. Time of arrival is very rough.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-05-02T16:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-05-06T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "95.78", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/10585/1\nModel Inputs:\n2016-05-02T09:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=3.0, Speed=386.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2016-05-02T18:15Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2016-05-06T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2016-05-03T02:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-05-06T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.93", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-05-02T18:10Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 369\nLongitude (deg): E31\nLatitude (deg): N03\nHalf-angular width (deg): 30\n\nNotes: Low confidence event from C3.5 flare from AR2540. Most of the ejecta is directed north of the ecliptic along the line of a pre-existing streamer, but there is a very faint emission on the ecliptic towards the east, hence wide angle (possibly polluted by a far side event). Ejecta too faint to analyse on anything other than Lasco C2, adding to low confidence since still decelerating in analysis.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence, based in part on analysis by Helen Waite." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2016-05-04T22:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-05-05T05:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 0.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-34.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.88", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-05-02 08:42:00\nSource Longtitude: -33\nSource Latitude: 21\nInitial Shock Speed: 369 km/s \nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 380 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.25 hour\n\nOutput results:The shock will not reach our Earth!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2016-05-04T22:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-05-06T17:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.83", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-05-02 08:42:00\nInitial Shock Speed: 369 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 380 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.25 hour\n\nOutput Results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2016-05-06 17:54:06\nThe transit time predicted is 105.20 hours!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-05-06T05:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-76037.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-05-06T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-76037.13", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2016-04-10T11:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2016-04-10T11:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2016-04-14T06:50Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME associated with large filament eruption situated close to N18E29 starting around 10UTC.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-04-11T00:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-04-14T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "77.93", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/10475/1\nModel Inputs:\n2016-04-10T07:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-53.0, Lat.=28.0, Speed=352.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=null\n2016-04-10T11:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=34.0, Speed=521.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=null\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2016-04-14T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160410_071200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-04-11T05:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-04-13T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.72", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2016 Apr 11 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was low this period due to a long-duration C1 flare\nobserved at 11/0202 UTC from Region 2529 (N09E34, Ehi/beta). Region 2529\nexhibited some intermediate spot growth and maintained a simple bi-pole\nmagnetic configuration. New Region 2530 (N16W05, Cao/beta) emerged on\nthis disk this period and was quiet and stable.\n\nAn approximately 10 degree long filament, centered near N18E29, was\nobserved erupting at about 10/1000 UTC. An associated CME was observed\nin LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NNE limb beginning at 10/1100 UTC.\nCME analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, suggests a possible\nweak, glancing blow at Earth mid to late 13 April. No other\nEarth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2016 Apr 11 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 11-Apr 13 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 11-Apr 13 2016\n\n Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13\n00-03UT 1 2 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 0 2 5 (G1)\n06-09UT 1 3 5 (G1)\n09-12UT 1 2 4 \n12-15UT 2 2 3 \n15-18UT 2 3 3 \n18-21UT 2 4 4 \n21-00UT 3 4 4 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day three\n(13 Apr) in response to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed\nstream." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2016-04-11T05:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-04-13T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.08", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-04-10T17:23Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 606km/s\nLongitude (deg): 25N\nLatitude (deg): 25E\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35 \n\nNotes: This CME left the NE quadrant and may have Minor to Moderate peripheral impacts at Earth, although with low confidence that it will be detectable.\nSpace weather advisor: MOSWC" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-04-11T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-04-14T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.33", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2016 Apr 11 1230 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 60411\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Apr 2016, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 11 Apr 2016 until 13 Apr 2016)\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 11 Apr 2016 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 005\nPREDICTIONS FOR 12 Apr 2016 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 011\nPREDICTIONS FOR 13 Apr 2016 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 031\nCOMMENT: One C flare was released by the Sun in the past 24 hours: a C1.1\nflare produced by beta region NOAA AR 2529, peaking at 02:02 UT on April\n11. More C flares (probability 70%) are expected in the next 24 hours, with\na slight chance (probability 10%) for an M flare, especially from AR 2529.\nA filament eruption centered near 10N25E was observed around 10:13 UT on\nApril 10 and an associated CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 11:48 UT.\nThis CME may deliver a glancing blow on April 14.\nSolar wind speed varied between about 335 and 430 km/s in the past 24\nhours, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field ranged\nbetween 1 and 10 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions have\nbeen quiet to unsettled (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and\n3). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2016-04-12T20:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-04-13T04:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.33", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-04-10 11:00:00\nSource Longtitude: -29\nSource Latitude: 18\nInitial Shock Speed: 638 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 380 km/s\nDuration Time: 1.0 hour (default)\n\nOutput results: The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2016-04-13 04:50:33\nThe transit time predicted is 65.84 hours!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2016-04-12T20:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-04-13T12:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.28", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-04-10 11:00:00\nInitial Shock Speed: 638 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 380 km/s\nDuration Time: 1.0 hour (default)\n\nOutput Results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2016-04-13 12:44:20\nThe transit time predicted is 73.74 hours!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-04-13T18:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-76574.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-04-13T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 65.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-76574.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2016-03-08T20:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2016-03-08T20:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2016-03-11T04:21Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The origin of this arrival is unclear. It could also be from the signature in 193Å near disk center at 2016-03-08T03:50Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2016-03-09T17:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-03-12T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "39.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.32", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-03-09T01:36Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 430\nLongitude (deg): W68\nLatitude (deg): S18\nHalf-angular width (deg): 35\n\nNotes: The MOSWOC ENLIL Ensemble suggests 4/24 members have a glancing blow later on Saturday 12th March (UTC). This may be concurrent with a CIR ahead of CH63, with the upper range of Kp values based on combined arrival.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence, based in part on analysis by Mark Seltzer" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2016-03-12T11:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-03-13T04:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "48.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-30.90", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-03-08 20:00:00\nInitial Shock Speed: 430 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 300 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.5 hour\n\nOutput Results: The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2016-03-13 04:44:57" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2016-03-12T11:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-03-12T13:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 0.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "33.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-30.92", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-03-08 20:00:00\nSource Longtitude: 68\nSource Latitude: -18\nInitial Shock Speed: 430 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 300 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.5\n\nOutput results: The shock will not reach our Earth!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-03-12T20:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "40.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-77392.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-03-12T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "39.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-77392.58", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2016-02-11T21:28Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2016-02-15T05:15Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "C8.9 flare originating from AR 12496/97 complex (with peak at 21:03), eruption from near the polarity inversion line between the 2 ARs, wave going to the north and west, AIA 304 shows dark absorption material being ejected, nice post-eruptive loops in AIA 193, CME is partial halo seen in LASCO and STA.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-11T23:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-15T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "77.37", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2016 Feb 11 2350 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe C8.9 flare peaking at 21:03 UT on February 11 in the region between the NOAA ARs 2496 and 2497 was accompanied by coronal dimmings, an EIT wave, and a post-eruption arcade observed by SDO/AIA. The associated halo CME (angular width at least 270 degrees) first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 21:28 UT. Due to the position of the CME source region close to the solar disk center, the CME will most probably arrive at the Earth. The arrival may be expected late on February 14 - early on February 15, although this estimate may be refined as more coronagraph data becomes available. A minor to moderate geomagnetic storm (K around 5 to 6) may be expected.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-12T02:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-15T06:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.80", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2016-02-12T02:27:23Z\n## Message ID: 20160212-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nS-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2016-02-11T21:28Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~450 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 3/14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Mars at 2016-02-17T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2016-02-15T06:14Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001) is associated with a C8.9 flare with ID 2016-02-11T20:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2016-02-11T21:03Z.\n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-12T02:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-15T05:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.38", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/10199/1\nModel Inputs:\n2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=450.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2016-02-12T05:36Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2016-02-15T05:51Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =229.6 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.3\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Dawn_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-12T12:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-15T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.92", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-12T17:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-15T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.93", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2016 Feb 13 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 13-Feb 15 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 13-Feb 15 2016\n\n Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15\n00-03UT 2 2 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 3 2 5 (G1)\n06-09UT 3 2 4 \n09-12UT 2 2 4 \n12-15UT 3 2 4 \n15-18UT 2 2 3 \n18-21UT 2 3 3 \n21-00UT 2 5 (G1) 2 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected late on 14 Feb and\nearly on 15 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of the 11 Feb CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-12T18:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-15T10:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.70", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-02-11 21:28\nInitial Shock Speed: 450 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 350 km/s\nDuration Time: 1.75 hrs\n\nOutput Results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2016-02-15 10:04:25" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-12T18:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-14T18:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.60", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-02-11 21:28\nSource Longtitude: 11\nSource Latitude: 11\nInitial Shock Speed: 450 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 350 km/s\nDuration Time: 1.75 hrs\n\nOutput results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2016-02-14 18:36:31" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-17T02:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-15T05:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 81.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-45.12", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2016-02-12T21:55:35Z\n## Message ID: 20160212-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20160212-AL-001).\n\n.... Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars. For 16 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Mars between about 2016-02-16T15:11Z and 2016-02-16T19:22Z (average arrival 2016-02-16T17:16Z) for 12% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2016-02-14T06:47Z and 2016-02-15T06:56Z (average arrival 2016-02-14T20:37Z) for 81% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 79% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_Mars_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/Detailed_results_20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055.txt\n###\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-15T03:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 83.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.2, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-77991.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-15T04:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 81.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-77991.68", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2016-02-05T21:30:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2016-02-05T21:30Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2016-02-11T15:54Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-06T12:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-09T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-56.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "123.62", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2016 Feb 06 0620 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo CME was observed with first measurements in SOHO-LASCO/C2 around 19h36 UT on February 5. The CME was rather faint, but with an estimated angular width of about 120 degrees (CACTus currently estimated it into different pieces). The CME is propagating in the Southwest direction. The CME is associated with the eruption of a small filament near S20W20 (SDO/AIA 304 and GONG images) and seems to have an Earth directed component. Further analysis will need to reveal its speed and estimated effects on the Earth environment. \n\nBefore the above mentioned eruption, two other small filaments disappeared as well (starting around 3h UT near S00W40 and one around 18h25 UT near S00E05). The first eruption did only result in a faint narrow CME, while for the second one no clear separate coronagraphic figures are visible.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-06T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-08T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-66.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "119.90", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-02-06T04:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 600\nLongitude (deg): W05\nLatitude (deg): S10\nHalf-angular width (deg): 40\n\nNotes: Low confidence due to difficult analysis.\nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-06T16:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-09T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-45.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "119.58", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2016-02-06T16:19:19Z\n## Message ID: 20160206-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nS-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2016-02-06T00:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~364 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 44/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2016-02-06T00:00:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2016-02-09T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2016-02-06T00:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160206_053500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160206_053500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160206_053500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160206_053500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160206_053500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160206_053500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-07T03:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-08T23:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-64.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "108.72", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth and Mars)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2016-02-07T03:11:17Z\n## Message ID: 20160207-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2016-02-06T00:00:00-CME-001 (starting at 2016-02-05T21:12Z, see previous notification 20160207-AL-002). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach:\n\n- Mars between about 2016-02-09T22:00Z and 2016-02-09T22:40Z (average arrival 2016-02-09T22:20Z for 4% of simulations (glancing blow)).\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2016-02-08T22:39Z and 2016-02-08T23:27Z (average arrival 2016-02-08T23:03Z for 4% of simulations (glancing blow)). \n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-06_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054/20160205_211200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-06_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054/20160205_211200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-06_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054/20160205_211200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-06_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054/20160205_211200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-06_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054/20160205_211200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-06_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054/20160205_211200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054_Mars_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-06_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054/Detailed_results_20160205_211200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX054.txt\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2016-02-07T23:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-08T21:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 0.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-66.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "88.40", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-02-05 21:30\nSource Longtitude: 67\nSource Latitude: -19\nInitial Shock Speed: 400 km/s \nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 400 km/s \nDuration Time: 0.22 hrs\n\nOutput results:The shock will not reach our Earth!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-09T03:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 23.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-60.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-78077.03", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-02-08T23:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 22.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-64.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-78077.03", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2016-01-15T00:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2016-01-15T00:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2016-01-18T21:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is associated with a filament eruption to the SW starting around 21:45Z. CME is a partial halo, very faint.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-01-15T17:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-01-18T12:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.85", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2016-01-15T17:09:45Z\n## Message ID: 20160115-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nS-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2016-01-15T00:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~483 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 31/-30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2016-01-15T00:00:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2016-01-18T12:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2016-01-15T00:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160115_114300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160115_114300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160115_114300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160115_114300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160115_114300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160115_114300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME is associated with a large filament eruption seen on the SW starting around 21:45Z. Due to the available imagery, these measurements are very rough. Updates will be sent as soon as they become available. \n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-01-15T21:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-01-18T07:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 71.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.38", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, missions near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2016-01-15T21:37:27Z\n## Message ID: 20160115-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2016-01-15T00:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20160115-AL-001)..... Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Mars between about 2016-01-20T07:00Z and 2016-01-20T17:48Z (average arrival 2016-01-20T14:50Z) for 40% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2016-01-18T02:22Z and 2016-01-18T12:20Z (average arrival 2016-01-18T07:54Z) for 71% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 96% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051/20160115_000005_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051/20160115_000005_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051/20160115_000005_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051/20160115_000005_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051/20160115_000005_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051/20160115_000005_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051_Mars_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051/Detailed_results_20160115_000005_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX051.txt\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2016-01-16T12:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-01-19T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.27", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2016 Jan 15 1249 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe large filament situated at the southern solar hemisphere erupted at about 22:15 UT on January 14. The filament eruption was associated with coronal dimming and partial halo CME. The CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at about 23:36 UT, had angular width of about 280 degrees and speed of about 250 km/s. This CME might arrive at the Earth late on January 18 or in the morning of January 19.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2016-01-16T18:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-01-19T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.42", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-01-15T1734Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 200\nLongitude (deg): 24\nLatitude (deg): -10\nHalf-angular width (deg): 51 \n\nNotes: Used STEREO A and SOHO C3. Faint halo visible.\nSpace weather advisor: Mark Seltzer" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2016-01-17T20:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-01-18T00:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 0.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.85", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2016-01-15 00:00:00 \nSource Longtitude: 41\nSource Latitude: 3 \nInitial Shock Speed: 566 \nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 350 km/s\nDuration Time: 0.12 hours\n\nOutput results: The shock will not reach our Earth!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-01-18T18:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 34.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-78647.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2016-01-18T12:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 32.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-78647.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-12-28T12:39:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-12-28T12:39Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-12-31T00:02Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME is associated with a M1.8 class flare from AR 2473.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-28T17:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-30T18:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.28", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-12-28T17:45:16Z\n## Message ID: 20151228-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2015-12-28T12:39:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20151228-AL-001). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2016-01-01T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-12-30T18:26Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\nStart time of the event: 2015-12-28T12:39Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~850 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 58 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 14/-15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-12-28T12:39:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-12-28T12:39:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151228_164300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151228_164300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151228_164300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151228_164300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151228_164300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151228_164300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2015-12-28T12:39:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.8 flare with ID 2015-12-28T11:31:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2015-12-28T12:46Z.\n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-28T21:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-30T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.80", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2015 Dec 29 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 29-Dec 31 2015 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 29-Dec 31 2015\n\n Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec 31\n00-03UT 3 3 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 3 3 4 \n06-09UT 2 2 4 \n09-12UT 2 2 4 \n12-15UT 2 4 3 \n15-18UT 2 6 (G2) 3 \n18-21UT 2 5 (G1) 3 \n21-00UT 3 5 (G1) 4 \n\nRationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain below G1-Minor\nstorm levels for day one (29 Dec) and into the first part of day two (30\nDec). Mid to late on day two should see the arrival of the 28 Dec CME\nbringing major storming (G2-Moderate) levels with it. Day three (31 Dec)\nshould see minor storm (G1-Minor) levels early in the day before waning\nCME effects return the Earths magnetic field to below G1-Minor levels." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-28T23:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-30T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.80", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Dec 28 2315 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe M1.8 flare from NOAA AR 2473 peaking at 12:45UT was associated with a partial halo CME first visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 12:12UT. It had an angular width of close to 250 degrees with primary angle to the South-West off the Sun-Earth line. Projected speeds were in the order of 600 km/s with a slightly faster component towards the South-East.\nAn impact at Earth can be expected in the afternoon of December 30 (around 21:00 UT).\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-29T01:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-30T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.03", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-12-28T14:26Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 800\nLongitude (deg): W008\nLatitude (deg): S006\nHalf-angular width (deg): 41\n\nNotes: +/- and Kp values added by Mark Seltzer.\nSpace weather advisor: Gareth Powell." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-29T03:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-30T20:13Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.43, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.53, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.13", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-12-29T03:54:40Z\n## Message ID: 20151229-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2015-12-28T12:39:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20151228-AL-002). \n\nBased on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars. For 40 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Mars between about 2016-01-01T14:46Z and 2016-01-02T12:00Z (average arrival 2016-01-02T01:13Z) for 47% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-12-30T10:47Z and 2015-12-31T04:45Z (average arrival 2015-12-30T20:13Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 62% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-12-28_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047/20151228_123905_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-12-28_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047/20151228_123905_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-12-28_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047/20151228_123905_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-12-28_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047/20151228_123905_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-12-28_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047/20151228_123905_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-12-28_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047/20151228_123905_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047_Mars_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-12-28_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047/Detailed_results_20151228_123905_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX047.txt\n\n###\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-30T11:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-31T03:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "12.28", "predictionNote" : "Initial shock speed: 850 km/s\nsource longitude: 8\nsource latitude: -6\nbackground solar wind speed: 370 km/s\nduration time: 1 hour\n\nThe shock will arrive at the Earth at 2015-12-31 03:38:33\n\nThe transit time predicted is 62.99 hours!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-30T18:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.6, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-79100.90", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-30T19:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-79100.90", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-12-16T09:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-12-19T15:27Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This entry is for two CME in close succession, starting on 2015-12-16T09:24 UT and 2015-12-16T14:24 UT in LASCO C2.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-16T21:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-19T01:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.20", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-12-16T21:07:00Z\n## Message ID: 20151216-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with ID(s) 2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001 and 2015-12-16T14:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20151216-AL-001). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-12-19T01:17Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are (event upgraded/downgraded to C-type):\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2015-12-16T09:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~650 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -30/12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2015-12-16T14:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~580 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -9/-8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2015-12-16T14:48:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001, 2015-12-16T14:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151216_153000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151216_153000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151216_153000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151216_153000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151216_153000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151216_153000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis CME event (2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.6 flare with ID 2015-12-16T08:34:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2015-12-16T09:03Z." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-17T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-19T04:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.17, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.95", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-12-17T00:25:35Z\n## Message ID: 20151217-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20151216-AL-002). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 18 (75%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-12-18T19:55Z and 2015-12-19T12:24Z (average arrival 2015-12-19T04:14Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 64% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-12-16_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX045/20151216_153400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX045_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-12-16_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX045/20151216_153400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX045_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-12-16_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX045/20151216_153400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX045_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-12-16_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX045/20151216_153400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX045_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-12-16_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX045/Detailed_results_20151216_153400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX045.txt\n###" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-17T06:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-18T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.95", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-12-16T18:54Z \nRadial velocity (km/s):800 \nLongitude (deg):E005 \nLatitude (deg):S07 \nHalf-angular width (deg):37 \n\nNotes:Prediction assumes combination with earlier CME \nSpace weather advisor:Mike Adkin" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-17T07:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-18T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.15", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2015 Dec 17 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 17-Dec 19 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 17-Dec 19 2015\n\n Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19\n00-03UT 1 2 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 1 1 5 (G1)\n06-09UT 1 1 4 \n09-12UT 1 1 4 \n12-15UT 1 1 3 \n15-18UT 1 1 3 \n18-21UT 2 3 3 \n21-00UT 2 5 (G1) 3 \n\nRationale: Late on day two (18 Dec)/early on day three (19 Dec) two CMEs\nfrom 16 Dec described in previous discussions, are expected to impact\nEarth's magnetosphere, likely producing G1-Minor storm conditions late\non 18 Dec and early on 19 Dec." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-17T11:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-19T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.32", "predictionNote" : "Note: This prediction is for the first CME at 9:24 UT on December 16.\n\n:Issued: 2015 Dec 17 0753 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nTwo halo CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 images.\n\nThe first halo CME was first seen in LASCO C2 images at 9:24 UT on December 16. It is an asymmetric full halo, probably frontside CME with bulk directed towards the ENE. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery provides an average speed of 552 km/s. This CME is probably associated with the C6.6 flare released by NOAA AR 2468 with peak time 9:03 UT (which showed a dimming and a post eruption arcade as well).\n\nThe second halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 images at 14:24 UT on December 16. It is an asymmetric full halo, probably frontside CME with bulk directed towards the SSE. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery provides an average speed of 489 km/s. It is probably associated to a dual ribbon flaring of a filament channel near NOAA AR 2468 starting around 12:57 UT on December 16.\nInformation about the estimated arrival times of these CMEs will follow later.\n\nCACTUS merged these two halo CMEs and detected them as a single one.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-17T11:13Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-19T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.23", "predictionNote" : "Note: this prediction is for the 14:24 CME on December 16.\n\n:Issued: 2015 Dec 17 0753 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nTwo halo CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 images.\n\nThe first halo CME was first seen in LASCO C2 images at 9:24 UT on December 16. It is an asymmetric full halo, probably frontside CME with bulk directed towards the ENE. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery provides an average speed of 552 km/s. This CME is probably associated with the C6.6 flare released by NOAA AR 2468 with peak time 9:03 UT (which showed a dimming and a post eruption arcade as well).\n\nThe second halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 images at 14:24 UT on December 16. It is an asymmetric full halo, probably frontside CME with bulk directed towards the SSE. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery provides an average speed of 489 km/s. It is probably associated to a dual ribbon flaring of a filament channel near NOAA AR 2468 starting around 12:57 UT on December 16.\nInformation about the estimated arrival times of these CMEs will follow later.\n\nCACTUS merged these two halo CMEs and detected them as a single one.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2015-12-17T22:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-18T22:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.87", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2015-12-16 09:36\nSource Longtitude: 15\nSource Latitude: -15\nInitial Shock Speed: 778 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 400 km/s (default)\nDuration Time: 1.12 hour\n\nOutput results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2015-12-18 22:32:10\nThe transit time predicted is 60.94 hours!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-19T01:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 78.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.8, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-79373.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-12-19T01:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-79373.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-11-16T03:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-11-16T03:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-11-18T19:24Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME associated with a second filament eruption visible in SDO 193/171/304 starting around 02UT.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-16T18:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-18T11:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.93", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-11-16T18:28:34Z\n## Message ID: 20151116-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2015-11-15T23:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~692 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 27/-27 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-11-15T23:36:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2015-11-16T03:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~827 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 31/-28 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2015-11-16T03:12:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-11-18T11:49Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n \n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-11-15T23:36:00-CME-001, 2015-11-16T03:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151116_045000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151116_045000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151116_045000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151116_045000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151116_045000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151116_045000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nCMEs are associated with 2 filament eruptions visible on the solar disk starting around 2015-11-15T22:00Z located at S15W25 and 2015-11-16T02:00Z located at S25W30. \n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-16T18:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-18T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.57", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 16/11/2015 0623Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 850\nLongitude (deg): W12\nLatitude (deg): S08\nHalf-angular width (deg): 24\n\nNotes: Double CME, more than one cone file, this is the most significant (related to Filament eruption #2) which catches up filament 1. May be accelerated by CH24 HSS.\nSpace weather advisor: Mark Seltzer" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-16T20:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-18T10:27Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.52, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.62, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.95", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-11-16T20:27:09Z\n## Message ID: 20151116-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID 2015-11-16T03:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20151116-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 32 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (75%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-11-18T05:56Z and 2015-11-18T17:04Z (average arrival 2015-11-18T10:27Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 80% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-11-16_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX044/20151116_031200_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX044_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-11-16_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX044/20151116_031200_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX044_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-11-16_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX044/20151116_031200_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX044_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-11-16_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX044/20151116_031200_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX044_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-11-16_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX044/Detailed_results_20151116_031200_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX044.txt\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-17T01:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-18T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.05", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2015 Nov 16 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2015 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2015\n\n Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18\n00-03UT 4 2 2 \n03-06UT 3 2 3 \n06-09UT 3 3 4 \n09-12UT 3 2 4 \n12-15UT 1 2 3 \n15-18UT 1 2 3 \n18-21UT 2 2 3 \n21-00UT 3 2 4 \n\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2015 Nov 16 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2449 (S10, L=211)\nproduced a few B-class flares during the period. Regions 2453 (N06W29,\nBxo/beta) and 2455 (N15E15, Dro/beta) underwent minor development this\nperiod.\n\nA coronal mass ejection (CME) off the west limb was observed in C2\ncoronagraph imagery beginning at 15/2048 UTC. Additional data is needed\nbefore analysis can be completed, but a lack of coronal eruptions on the\nvisible disk suggests that the CME is associated with far-sided activity\nand directed away from the Sun-Earth line.\n\nLate on 15 November and early on 16 November, two filament eruptions\noccurred in the SW quadrant. The first was an approximate 21 degree long\nfilament, centered near S11W17, that was observed lifting off around\n15/2114 UTC. The second was an approximate 19 degree long filament,\ncentered near S26W24, that was observed lifting off around 16/0114 UTC.\nThese eruptions were observed in both SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery as\nwell as GONG imagery. Limited coronagraph imagery prevented complete\nanalysis, however given their location and initial trajectory, an\nEarth-directed component is probable." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-17T08:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-18T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.72", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Nov 17 0841 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe double filament eruption of late November 15 produced a double CME towards the South West. As reported yesterday, the first appearance in SoHO/LASCO C2 is at 23:24UT. Subsequent coronagraph images now show that the angular extent of this first CME is rather limited. However, the core of the CME corresponding to the second filament eruption is visible from 3:12 UT November 16 onwards. It is directed primarily in SouthWest direction and reaches an angular extent of around 180 degrees. Projected speeds are higher than that of the first CME and between 600-700 km/s.\nCactus failed to detect the second CME within the earlier detection.\nA glancing blow or shock arrival from the second CME can be expected around noon November 18.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-17T13:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-18T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.40", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.27", "predictionNote" : "Run details:\nDETAILS\nProject name: OPS\nCase name: AUTORUN\nRun by: BB\nRun start: Tue Nov 17 12:45:02 UTC 2015\nRun end: Tue Nov 17 13:08:04 UTC 2015\nHost machine: sws-enlil.bom.gov.au\nGrid: 256x30x90\nWSA file: wsa_vel_21.5rs_2015111710_gong.fits\nCMEs: 2\n\n__________________________\nDFmenu\n20151116T0230\n7\n21\n33\n500\n\n__________________________\nDFmenu\n20151116T0449\n-26\n23\n33\n644" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-17T14:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-18T13:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.58", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2015-11-16 03:12\nSource Longtitude: 12\nSource Latitude: -8\nInitial Shock Speed: 970 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 400 km/s\nDuration Time: 1.0 hour (default)\n\nOutput results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2015-11-18 13:56:57\nThe transit time predicted is 58.75 hours!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-17T14:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-18T16:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.58", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2015-11-16 03:12\nInitial Shock Speed: 970 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 400 km/s\nDuration Time: 1.0 hour (default)\n\nOutput Results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2015-11-18 16:04:36\nThe transit time predicted is 60.88 hours!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-18T12:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 53.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-80113.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-18T11:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-80113.53", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-11-04T14:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-11-04T14:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-11-06T17:34Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : -87, "dstMinTime" : "2015-11-07T08:00Z", "cmeNote" : "CME is connected to a M3.7 flare at AR 12443 very close to disk center, GOES light curve is a long duration event, with extensive post-event loops visible in AIA 131. Large, fast wave emanating from flare site, dimming to the west and north of the AR in AIA 193, dark absorption material ejected at west end of AR seen in AIA 304", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-04T21:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-07T08:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.02", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 50 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 18/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-11-04T14:24:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling (please note this is a very rough estimate) carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-11-07T08:40Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (include the CME: 2015-11-04T14:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151104_193000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151104_193000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151104_193000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151104_193000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151104_193000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151104_193000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nThis CME is associated with the M3.7 class flare from the active region 2443 that peaked around 2015-11-04T13:52Z. \n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-04T21:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-07T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 50.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.92", "predictionNote" : "A partial halo CME was first seen by CACTus in LASCO/C2 imagery on 04 November at 14:24UT. This CME was associated with the M3.7 flare produced by NOAA 2443 (peaking at 13:52UT). This active region was located near disk centre at the time of the eruption. A Type II radio burst was observed by the Humain Radio Observatory and Sagamore Hill, indicative of a shock speed of 955 km/s. CACTus calculated a plane-of-the-sky speed for the CME of 563 km/s and a width of 166 degrees. An analysis of the LASCO/C2 imagery seems indicative of a slightly larger speed and width. Both the coronagraphic and EUV imagery also seem to indicate that the bulk of this CME is directed to the southwest (under the ecliptic and away from Earth).\n\nBased on these preliminary findings, a glancing blow is likely to arrive at Earth on 07 November around 04:00UT (+/- 12 hours). Active geomagnetic conditions to major storming (Kp = 4 to 6) are expected. These predictions will be finetuned upon availability of further data and modeling results.\n\nStarting around 16:00UT, also a slight enhancement of the greater than 10MeV proton flux was observed. However, current (21:00UT) flux levels are around 0.5 pfu and thus well below the proton event threshold (10 pfu)." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-05T01:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-07T02:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.2, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.78, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.07", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-11-05T01:19:20Z\n## Message ID: 20151105-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2015-11-04T14:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20151104-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-11-06T18:14Z and 2015-11-07T09:13Z (average arrival 2015-11-07T02:26Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 83% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-11-04_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX040/20151104_142400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX040_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-11-04_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX040/20151104_142400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX040_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-11-04_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX040/20151104_142400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX040_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-11-04_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX040/20151104_142400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX040_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-11-04_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX040/Detailed_results_20151104_142400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX040.txt" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-05T03:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-07T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.20", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2015 Nov 05 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 05-Nov 07 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 05-Nov 07 2015\n\n Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07\n00-03UT 3 3 3 \n03-06UT 2 2 2 \n06-09UT 4 2 2 \n09-12UT 3 2 2 \n12-15UT 2 1 3 \n15-18UT 2 2 4 \n18-21UT 2 2 5 (G1)\n21-00UT 3 2 5 (G1)\n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely late in the day on day\nthree (07 Nov) as the partial halo CME from 04 Nov is expected to arrive\nat Earth." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-05T06:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-07T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.98", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-11-04T18:09Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 608\nLongitude (deg): 11\nLatitude (deg): -1\nHalf-angular width (deg): 37\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Mike Adkin (edited/updated by Chris Bulmer)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-05T09:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-07T14:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 3.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.78", "predictionNote" : "CME input parameters:\nCME take-off date & UT time: 04-NOV-2015 at 16UT\nγ = 0.20×10-7 km-1, w = 400 km/s, R0 = 20 rSun, v0 = 600 km/s, λ = 30°, φCME = 10°\nRtarget = 0.99 AU, φ target = 0° (Earth)\n\n\nCME arrival at target (date & UT time): 07-NOV-2015 at 14:30UT (+/- 5.5h)\nImpact speed at target (at 0.99 AU): 500 km/s (+/- 100km/s)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-05T13:08Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-07T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.43", "predictionNote" : "Run details:\nDETAILS\nProject name: OPS\nCase name: AUTORUN\nRun by: BB\nRun start: Thu Nov 5 12:45:01 UTC 2015\nRun end: Thu Nov 5 13:08:28 UTC 2015\nHost machine: sws-enlil.bom.gov.au\nGrid: 256x30x90\nWSA file: wsa_vel_21.5rs_2015110510_gong.fits\nCMEs: 1\n\n__________________________\nDFmenu\n20151104T1821\n-1\n16\n45\n1044" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-05T22:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-06T22:25Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.47", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2015-11-04T14:24\nSource Longtitude: 10\nSource Latitude: 6\nInitial Shock Speed: 785 km/s \nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 450 km/s \nDuration Time: 1.0 hour (default)\n\nOutput results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2015-11-06 22:25:26\nThe transit time predicted is 56.02 hours!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM", "submissionTime" : "2015-11-05T22:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-07T03:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.42", "predictionNote" : "SPM Model Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2015-11-04 14:24\nInitial Shock Speed: 785 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 450 km/s\nDuration Time: 1.0 hour (default)\n\nOutput Results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2015-11-07 3:5:58\nThe transit time predicted is 60.70 hours!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-07T06:34Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.4, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-80403.37", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-11-07T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-80403.37", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-10-22T03:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-10-22T03:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-10-24T18:26Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Relatively faint partial halo CME associated with long duration C4.5 flare from AR2434.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-10-22T11:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-10-25T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.05", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2015 Oct 23 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 23-Oct 25 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 23-Oct 25 2015\n\n Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25\n00-03UT 2 2 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 1 1 4 \n06-09UT 1 1 4 \n09-12UT 1 1 4 \n12-15UT 1 1 3 \n15-18UT 1 1 3 \n18-21UT 2 4 3 \n21-00UT 2 5 (G1) 3 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on days two and\nthree (24-25 Oct) due to possible impact from the 22 Oct CME.\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2015 Oct 23 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels today due to a long duration C4 flare\nat 22/0340 UTC from Region 2434 (S10W48, Cao/beta). It appeared that\nthe flare occurred concurrently with a filament eruption near the\nregion. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in\nSOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 22/0312 UTC with the majority of the\nejecta off the SW limb. Slight growth was observed in Region 2434.\n\nSlight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Region 2436 (N08E04,\nEki/beta-gamma). New Regions 2438 (S18W25, Bxo/beta) and 2439 (N17E76,\nHax/alpha) were numbered during the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,\nMinor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (23-25 Oct).\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels\nwith a peak flux of 806 pfu at 22/1600 UTC. A slight enhancement of the\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit occurred after\n22/1530 UTC likely associated with the long duration C4 flare described\nabove.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to\nmoderate levels throughout the forecast period (23-25 Oct). There is a\nslight chance for the greater than 10 MeV protons to reach the S1\n(Minor) solar radiation storm threshold on day one (23 Oct). Near\nbackground levels are expected on days two and three (24-25 Oct).\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were near nominal levels over the period with\nsolar wind speeds between 364 km/s and 474 km/s. Total field ranged\nfrom 1 nT to 7 nT with the Bz component between +7 nT and -3 nT. Phi\nangle was oriented in a mostly negative (towards) sector.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to near nominal levels on days one\nand through the majority of day two (23-24 Oct). By late on day two to\nearly on day three (25 Oct), solar wind parameters are likely to become\nenhanced by a glancing blow from the 22 Oct CME. WSA-Enlil modelling of\nthe CME suggests a glancing blow possible early on 25 October. However,\na rise in lower energy protons in the ACE/EPAM instrument suggests the\npossibility of a slightly more Earth-directed component than what was\nseen in model output." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-10-22T12:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-10-24T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.98", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Oct 22 1230 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 51022\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Oct 2015, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Oct 2015 until 24 Oct 2015)\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2015 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 006\nPREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2015 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 006\nPREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2015 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 013\nCOMMENT: The Sun produced four C-class flares during the past period. The\nstrongest flare was a C7.7 flare (peaking at 17:56 UT on October 21),\noriginating from NOAA 2436. NOAA 2434 produced a long duration C4.4 flare\n(peaking at 3:40 UT on October 22), accompanied with a dimming and a CME.\nThe CME was first observed in LASCO/C2 at 3:12 UT and is propagating\nsouthwest of the Sun-Earth line with a projected speed of about 800 km/s.\nPotentially an Earth-directed component will arrive on October 24. Flaring\nat the C-level is expected, but also an M-class flare is not excluded.\n\nThe solar wind speed gradually decreased from 450-480 km/s to current\nvalues near 400 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field\nstarted at 10 nT, but quickly lowered to 5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were\nquiet to unsettled and are expected to continue. The CME of this UT morning\nmay cause a disturbance on October 24 around noon.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 096, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Oct 2015\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 129\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 017\nAK WINGST : 011\nESTIMATED AP : 011\nESTIMATED ISN : 084, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-10-22T18:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-10-24T11:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.77", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/9543/1\nModel Inputs:\n2015-10-22T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=37.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=861.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2015-10-22T07:09Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2015-10-24T11:49Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =17.3 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.3\n(kp)90=3\n(kp)180=5\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-10-23T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-10-24T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.93", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2 \n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-10-22T08:09Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 600km/s\nLongitude (deg): W029\nLatitude (deg): N00\nHalf-angular width (deg): 56\n\nNotes: Expecting a G1 minor storm late on the 24th or early 25th. Low risk stronger.\nSpace weather advisor: Mark Seltzer" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SPM2", "submissionTime" : "2015-10-23T22:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-10-24T15:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.93", "predictionNote" : "SPM2 Input Parameters:\nDate-time: 2015-10-22 03:12\nSource Longtitude:+50\nSource Latitude: -10\nInitial Shock Speed: 951 km/s\nBackground Solar Wind Speed: 400 km/s\nDuration Time: 4.67 hours\n\nOutput results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2015-10-24 15:59:54\nThe transit time predicted is 60.80 hours!" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-10-24T17:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-80714.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-10-24T15:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 45.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-80714.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-09-18T04:30:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-09-18T04:30Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-09-20T05:27Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : -75, "dstMinTime" : "2015-09-20T16:00Z", "cmeNote" : "Geomagnetic activity is likely due to the mix with a coronal hole high speed stream", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-09-18T17:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-20T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.28", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-09-18T08:53Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 864\nLongitude (deg): -2\nLatitude (deg): -10\nHalf-angular width (deg): 40\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence\nEvent in AR2419 appears to trigger AR2415. No Lasco images for early stages of emission available, there is a possibility for concurrent but separate cones. Several analyses by two forecasters produce speeds around 850km/s, approximately equal to detected type-II burst. Low confidence in magnitude of event - on balance most probable G2. Immediately precedes CH HSS in ENLIL that is likely to be CH04, events are assumed not to overlap but immediately succeed each other to give G2." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-09-18T17:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-20T17:14Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.72", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-09-18T17:44:48Z\n## Message ID: 20150918-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2015-09-18T05:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~744 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 7/-26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-09-18T05:00:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-09-20T17:14Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate). \n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-09-18T05:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150918_093700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150918_093700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150918_093700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150918_093700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150918_093700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150918_093700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nNote that measurements for this CME are rough. Ensemble Simulation will follow.\n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-09-19T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-20T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.95", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2015 Sep 19 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels. Region 2415 (S19W29, Eac/beta-gamma)\nproduced a long duration C2/Sf flare at 18/0631 UTC. Type II (850 km/s)\nand Type IV radio sweeps accompanied an associated coronal mass ejection\n(CME). Modeling of the event shows the majority of the ejected directed\nsouth of Earth with the northern flank possibly producing a glancing\nblow around the early portion of 21 Sep.\n\nRegion 2418 (S14E05, Cho/beta) and Region 2419 (N12E08, Cai/beta)\nremained relatively simple and inactive over the past 24 hours. Region\n2415 saw slight development in its intermediate spots. No other\nEarth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for\nM-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares all three days (19-21 Sep),\nprimarily due to the flare probability of Region 2415.\n\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high levels\nwith a peak flux of 2,640 pfu at 18/0045 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux was at background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to\nhigh levels on day one (19 Sep). Electron flux is expected to decrease\nto normal to moderate levels for day two and three (20-21 Sep) due to\nthe onset of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) coupled with a\npossible glancing blow from the 18 Sep CME. The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux is expected to continue at background levels.\n\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe solar wind, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, depicted mostly\nnominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was variable between\n5-7 nT. Wind speeds trended upwards from lows around 380 km/s early in\nthe period to around 450 km/s by the end of the period. Bz maintained a\npredominantly weak southward component to -6 nT with brief intervals\nof positive (towards) direction. Phi angle remained in a predominately\npositive (away) over the past 24 hours.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind velocities are expected to remain at nominal levels\nthroughout day one (19 Sep). Early on day two (20 Sep) a weak\nco-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected become geoeffective\nahead of an isolated, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream\n(CH HSS). The potential exists for enhancement in the solar wind on day\nthree (21 Sep) from a glancing blow from the northern flank of the 18\nSep CME.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nGeomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nGeomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to active on day one (19\nSep). A weak CIR ahead of the positive polarity CH HSS is expected to\narrive early on day two (20 Sep) and could cause a geomagnetic response\nup to minor storm (G1 - Minor) levels. Day three will see continued\nresponse from the CH HSS with the potential for additional enhancement\nto minor storm (G1 - Minor) levels under the influence of a glancing\nblow from the 18 Sep CME.\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-09-19T06:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-21T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 25.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.20", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-09-18T11:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 750\nLongitude (deg): W27\nLatitude (deg): S60\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: Possible glancing blow late 20th/early 21st.\nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-09-19T11:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-21T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 15.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "25.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.73", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Sep 19 1230 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50919\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Sep 2015, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Sep 2015 until 21 Sep 2015)\nSOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Sep 2015 10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 026\nPREDICTIONS FOR 20 Sep 2015 10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 026\nPREDICTIONS FOR 21 Sep 2015 10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 018\nCOMMENT: NOAA 2415 has lost its delta, but remains magnetically complex. No\n(zero) C-class flares were observed during the period. The coronal mass\nejection (CME) associated to the long duration event on 18 September (C2.6\nflare peaking at 06:31UT) was directed to the south of the ecliptic. A\nglancing blow can not be excluded and could arrive late on 20 or on 21\nSeptember.\n\nC-class flares are expected, with a small chance on an M-class flare from\nNOAA 2415.\n\nSolar wind speed varied mostly between 410 and 450 km/s. Around 03:00UT, a\ngradual change in solar wind temperature and Bz was observed, accompanied\nby a mild increase in density and, around 05:00UT, a change in the\ndirection of the interplanetary magnetic field from away to towards the\nSun. Bz varied between -8 and +7 nT, being predominantly negative between\n05:00 and 09:00UT. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed in\nDourbes, while the Kp-index reached minor storming during the 06-09UT\ninterval. Further data are awaited to pinpoint the source of the observed\ndisturbance.\n\nQuiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected. Minor geomagnetic\nstorming is still possible on 19 or on 20 September in response to the\nanticipated arrival of the solar wind stream of the positive\ntransequatorial coronal hole. Late on 20 or on 21 September, the glancing\nblow of the 18 September CME may arrive at Earth, but currently only active\ngeomagnetic conditions are expected.\n\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 061, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Sep 2015\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 103\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 026\nAK WINGST : 012\nESTIMATED AP : 014\nESTIMATED ISN : 067, BASED ON 25 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-20T22:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-81543.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-20T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-81543.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-09-04T19:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-09-04T19:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-09-08T01:28Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "filament eruption", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-09-05T09:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-09T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "34.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.23", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Sep 05 1230 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50905\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Sep 2015, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Sep 2015 until 07 Sep 2015)\nSOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 05 Sep 2015 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 013\nPREDICTIONS FOR 06 Sep 2015 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 017\nPREDICTIONS FOR 07 Sep 2015 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 007\nCOMMENT: Solar activity has been very low in past 24 h, no flares above the\nB level. C-class flares remain possible. A partial halo CME (angular width\naround 120 degrees) erupted on September 4 (first seen at 19:24 UT by\nLASCO-C2), it originated from a filament eruption. It's slow (210 km/s),\nfaint and directed southwards, but an encounter with the Earth cannot be\ndiscarded and may occur on September 9.\nGeomagnetic conditions are unsettled. The effect from the fast speed stream\nis fading out, conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.\nNevertheless, the fast speed stream from a high latitude (northern) coronal\nhole may arrive to the Earth in 24 to 48 h creating more active periods.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 026, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 04 Sep 2015\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 090\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 020\nAK WINGST : 020\nESTIMATED AP : 024\nESTIMATED ISN : 038, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-09-05T23:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-08T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.20", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/9265/1\nModel Inputs:\n2015-09-04T19:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=325.0, HalfAngle=55.0, Time21.5=2015-09-05T12:47Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2015-09-08T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)\n(kp)90=2\n(kp)180=4\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-09-06T07:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-10T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "48.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.82", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-09-05T08:45Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 265\nLongitude (deg): E029\nLatitude (deg): S38\nHalf-angular width (deg): 58\n\nNotes: Low confidence in half-angle due to obscuring from other non-earth directed CME. This could give a glancing blow or miss to the south.\nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-09-07T04:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-10T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "69.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.13", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-09-05 08:45Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 365\nLongitude (deg): West 68\nLatitude (deg): South 43\nHalf-angular width (deg): 38 \n\nNotes: CME expected to arrive around the same time as a CH HSS onset.\nSpace weather advisor: H.W." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-09T20:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 36.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "42.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-81835.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-09-09T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "41.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-81835.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-08-12T15:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-08-12T15:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-08-15T07:43Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME associated with prominence eruption visible in SDO 193/171/304 starting around 13:42Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-08-13T13:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-08-16T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.48", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Aug 13 1200 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe partial halo CME, first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 14:48 UT on August 12, was associated with the long duration B7.0 flare and the filament eruption from the south-west quadrant. The CME had the angular width of about 210 degrees and the projected plane of the sky speed of about 500 km/s (as reported by CACTUS software package). \nThe glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave, associated with the partial halo CME, might be expected to arrive at the Earth in the early morning of April 16.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-08-13T13:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-08-16T09:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 3.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "25.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.90", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-08-13T13:49:18Z\n## Message ID: 20150813-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2015-08-12T15:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~567 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 36/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-08-12T15:12:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-08-16T09:09Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-08-12T15:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150812_212200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150812_212200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150812_212200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150812_212200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150812_212200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150812_212200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME is associated with a filament eruption starting at 2015-08-12T13:42Z visible in SDO imagery localized around S20W30.\n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-08-13T15:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-08-16T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.38", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2015 Aug 14 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 14-Aug 16 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 14-Aug 16 2015\n\n Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16\n00-03UT 1 2 2 \n03-06UT 1 1 2 \n06-09UT 1 1 4 \n09-12UT 1 1 5 (G1)\n12-15UT 1 1 5 (G1)\n15-18UT 1 1 4 \n18-21UT 2 2 4 \n21-00UT 2 2 5 (G1)\n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day three (16\nAug) due to the arrival of the 12 Aug CME and a recurrent positive\npolarity coronal hole." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-08-13T18:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-08-16T06:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.66, "confidenceInPercentage" : 91.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.13", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-08-13T20:17:06Z\n## Message ID: 20150813-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2015-08-12T15:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20150813-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 44 (91%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-08-15T22:58Z and 2015-08-16T12:42Z (average arrival 2015-08-16T06:02Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 99% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-08-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX032/20150812_151200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX032_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-08-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX032/20150812_151200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX032_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-08-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX032/20150812_151200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX032_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-08-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX032/20150812_151200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX032_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-08-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX032/Detailed_results_20150812_151200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX032.txt\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-08-14T12:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-08-16T00:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.80", "predictionNote" : "CME source location filament eruption S20W35, 1/2 angle 45 degrees, speed 600km/s. Assessed using NOAA CAT tool and other data sources (LASCO C2/C3 STEREO A)." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-08-16T04:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.2, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-82405.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-08-16T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "20.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-82405.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-07-19T09:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-07-19T09:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-07-22T15:30Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "The arrival time for the CME is a little uncertain since it was possible embedded with a CIR preceding a CH HSS", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-07-19T17:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-07-22T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "70.12", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2015 Jul 21 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were indicative of nominal conditions. Solar wind\nspeed fluctuated between 269 and 306 km/s throughout the reporting\nperiod. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 3\nand 10 nT while the greatest southward deflection of the Bz component\nwas -6 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) sector.\n \n.Forecast...\nA trans-equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH\nHSS) is expected to become geoeffective early on day one (21 Jul). A\nreturn to nominal conditions is expected by day two (22 Jul). Enhanced\nsolar wind parameters are expected early on day three (23 Jul) with the\narrival of the 19 Jul CME associated with the filament eruption from\nthe SW quadrant centered near S32W52." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-07-20T07:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-07-22T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.30", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-07-19T14:30Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 750\nLongitude (deg): 17S\nLatitude (deg): 44W\nHalf-angular width (deg): 40 \n\nNotes: CME from filament eruption on the southwest quadrant\nSpace weather advisor: Gareth Powell" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-07-20T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-07-22T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.00", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Jul 20 1230 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50720\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Jul 2015, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Jul 2015 until 22 Jul 2015)\nSOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2015 10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 011\nPREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jul 2015 10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 013\nPREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jul 2015 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 011\nCOMMENT: The long-duration C2.1 flare related to the complex filament\neruption in the southwest quadrant peaked on 19 July at 10:40UT and ended\nat 13:02UT. The bulk of the related coronal mass ejection (CME), first seen\nin LASCO/C2 imagery by CACTus on 09:48UT, is directed away from Earth.\nHowever, a glancing blow from this CME cannot be ruled out and may impact\nEarth on 22 or early 23 July. At most active geomagnetic conditions are\nexpected. The two currently visible sunspot regions were quiet. No C-class\nflares or other earth-directed CMEs were observed.\n\nQuiet flaring conditions are expected, with a small chance on a C-class\nflare.\n\nSolar wind speed further declined from 300 km/s to 270 km/s around 03:00UT,\nthen increased to its current values between 290-300 km/s. Bz was initially\nvery low, but has been persistently negative from about 03:00UT till\n11:00UT, with maximum values near -6 nT. Bz then quickly returned to very\nlow values. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed\naway from the Sun. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions have been\nobserved.\n\nMostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, but with a\nchance on an active geomagnetic episode in response to the anticipated\narrival of the high speed stream of the positive transequatorial coronal\nhole.\n\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 044, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Jul 2015\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 099\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 005\nAK WINGST : 002\nESTIMATED AP : 002\nESTIMATED ISN : 047, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-07-20T15:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-07-22T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.07", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-07-20T15:26:37Z\n## Message ID: 20150720-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2015-07-19T09:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~763 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 51/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-07-19T09:48:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may have a weak glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-07-22T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2015-07-19T09:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150719_143000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150719_143000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150719_143000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150719_143000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150719_143000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150719_143000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2015-07-19T09:48:00-CME-001) is associated with the filament eruption related to a long duration C2.1 flare with ID 2015-07-19T09:22:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2015-07-19T10:40Z from the southwest quadrant.\n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-07-22T18:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-82973.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-07-22T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-82973.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-06-25T08:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-06-25T08:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-06-27T03:30Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "From AR12371. Associated with M7.9 flare.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-25T10:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-26T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.65", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Jun 25 1051 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA full halo CME was first seen by LASCO C2 at 08:36 UT. This event is associated with the M7.9 flare peaking at 08:16 UT, from NOAA AR 2371. The CME has an Earth directed component and is travelling at 1600 km/s. It is expected to arrive to the Earth on June 26 around 16:00 UT and cause up to severe geomagnetic storms.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-25T13:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-27T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.15", "predictionNote" : "Output:\n\nCME arrival at target (date & UT time): 27.06.2015 at 10UT\nImpact speed at target (at 1.02 AU): 755 km/s\nInput parameters:\n\nCME take-off date & UT time: 25.06.2015 at 10h:30min\n? = 0.10×10-7 km-1, w = 500 km/s,\nR0 = 15 rSun, v0 = 1300 km/s, ? = 42°, ?CME = 40°\nRtarget = 1.02 AU, ?target = 0°" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-25T15:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-27T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.00", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-06-25T11:05Z \nRadial velocity (km/s): 1450 \nLongitude (deg): W040 \nLatitude (deg): N12 \nHalf-angular width (deg): 60 \n\nNotes: Limited initial\nimagery. Space weather advisor: Tony Burgess" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-25T16:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-28T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.75", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-06-25T16:45:50Z\n## Message ID: 20150625-AL-006\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2015-06-25T08:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20150625-AL-005). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-06-28T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are O-type:\n\nStart time of the event: 2015-06-25T08:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1450 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 46/23 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-06-25T08:36:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-06-25T08:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150625_105100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150625_105100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150625_105100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150625_105100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150625_105100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150625_105100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2015-06-25T08:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.9 flare with ID 2015-06-25T08:02:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2015-06-25T08:16Z (see notification(s) 20150625-AL-001, 20150625-AL-003).\n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-25T21:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-27T15:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.2, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 58.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.95", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-06-25T21:20:34Z\n## Message ID: 20150625-AL-007\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.\n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2015-06-25T08:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20150625-AL-006). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 28 (58%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-06-27T03:06Z and 2015-06-28T00:41Z (average arrival 2015-06-27T15:18Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 72% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX030/20150625_083600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX030_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX030/20150625_083600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX030_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX030/20150625_083600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX030_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX030/20150625_083600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX030_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX030/Detailed_results_20150625_083600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX030.txt\n\n\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-26T17:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-27T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "10.07", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-27T01:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-27T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "2.33", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-6-25T11:46Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1215\nLongitude (deg): 32\nLatitude (deg): 32\nHalf-angular width (deg): 59\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-27T11:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 58.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-83585.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-27T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 58.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-83585.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-06-22T18:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-06-22T18:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-06-24T12:57Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "from AR 12371", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-23T01:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-24T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.57", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2015 Jun 23 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale\nG4).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 23-Jun 25 2015 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 23-Jun 25 2015\n\n Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25\n00-03UT 7 (G3) 4 6 (G2) \n03-06UT 8 (G4) 4 6 (G2) \n06-09UT 6 (G2) 3 5 (G1) \n09-12UT 5 (G1) 2 4 \n12-15UT 5 (G1) 2 4 \n15-18UT 4 2 3 \n18-21UT 4 3 3 \n21-00UT 4 5 (G1) 2\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2015 Jun 24 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 24-Jun 26 2015 is 7 (NOAA Scale\nG3).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 24-Jun 26 2015\n\n Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26\n00-03UT 4 7 (G3) 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 3 7 (G3) 4 \n06-09UT 4 6 (G2) 4 \n09-12UT 3 6 (G2) 4 \n12-15UT 5 (G1) 6 (G2) 3 \n15-18UT 4 5 (G1) 3 \n18-21UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 3" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-23T02:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-24T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.27", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Jun 23 0239 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA full halo CME erupted from NOAA AR 2371 (first seen at 18:36 UT on June 22, in LASCO C2), related to the M6.5 flare (peak 18:23 UT, June 22) reported in a previous PRESTO. The CME speed is around 1000 km/s and it is expected to arrive to the Earth on June 24 around 12:00 UT.\nThe geomagnetic storm related to the June 21 CME is still ongoing, at minor storm levels. Proton levels have descended from the peak of 1000 pfu and are around 20 pfu at the moment.\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-23T02:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-24T18:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.18", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/8765/1\nModel Inputs:\n2015-06-22T18:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=1155.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2015-06-22T21:10Z\n\nModel Output:\n\nEarth Impact:\nEarth Shock Arrival Time = 2015-06-24T18:18Z (+- 7 hours)\nDuration of disturbance (hr) =29.7 (+- 8 hours)\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.2\n(kp)90=6\n(kp)180=8\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif\nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150622_211000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-23T06:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-24T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.08", "predictionNote" : "CME arrival at target (date & UT time): 24.06.2015 at 14h:50min\nTransit time: 41.68 h\nImpact speed at target (at 1.02 AU): 814 km/s\nInput parameters:\n\nCME take-off date & UT time: 22.06.2015 at 21h:10min\n? = 0.20×10-7 km-1, w = 600 km/s,\nR0 = 15 rSun, v0 = 1200 km/s, ? = 30°, ?CME = 0°\nRtarget = 1.02 AU, ?target = 0°" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-23T12:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-24T19:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.85, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.66, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "24.20", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-06-23T12:45:15Z\n## Message ID: 20150623-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2015-06-22T18:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20150623-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 48 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-06-24T12:19Z and 2015-06-25T04:50Z (average arrival 2015-06-24T19:10Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is about 83% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 6-8 range (moderate to severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX029/20150622_183600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX029_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX029/20150622_183600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX029_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX029/20150622_183600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX029_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX029/20150622_183600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX029_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX029/Detailed_results_20150622_183600_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX029.txt\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-23T13:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-24T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.45", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2015-06-22T19:35Z \nRadial velocity (km/s):1100 \nLongitude (deg):W09 \nLatitude (deg):N12 \nHalf-angular width (deg):40 \n\nNotes:Nil. \nSpace weather advisor:Mark Sidaway" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-24T01:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-24T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.37", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-06-22T21:03Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1273\nLongitude (deg): 11.8\nLatitude (deg): 3.7 \nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-24T17:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 91.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.6, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-83647.98", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-24T18:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-83647.98", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-06-21T02:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T17:59Z", "maxKP" : 8.0, "dstMin" : -195, "dstMinTime" : "2015-06-23T05:00Z", "cmeNote" : "From near disk center, AR 12371. Associated with M-class flares.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-21T10:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.55", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Jun 21 1019 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA full halo CME is detected with first appearance in SoHO/LASCO C2 images at 2:36UT. It is associated with the double M2 flare from Catania group 92 (NOAA region 2371) located just east off the central meridian (about -13 degrees at the time of the event) peaking at M2.0 level at 01:42UT and M2.6 level at 02:35 UT. A corresponding dimming is visible in SDO/AIA imagery. The halo is fairly symmetric with principle direction only slightly northeast. Measured projected speeds are around 1000-1300 km/s. This CME is definitely earthbound and may interact with the June 19 CME. A combined arrival of those is expected from June 22 afternoon onwards.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n\n:Issued: 2015 Jun 21 1230 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50621\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Jun 2015, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Jun 2015 until 23 Jun 2015)\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jun 2015 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 027\nPREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jun 2015 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 071\nPREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jun 2015 10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 063\nCOMMENT: Solar flaring activity was moderate with an M4.0 flare from\nCatania group 87 (NOAA region 2367) peaking at 9:44 UT and a double M2\nflare from Catania group 92 (NOAA region 2371). The latter peaked at M2.0\nlevel at 1:42UT and at M2.6 level at 2:35UT. It was associated with a\ndimming and a corresponding full halo was observed in SoHO/LASCO images.\nSolar flaring at M level is likely over the next days by both regions on\ndisk, which are now on or approaching the western hemisphere.\nThe 10 MeV proton flux was at decline towards background levels but\nstabilized around 18:00UT at slightly elevated levels of around 0.7 pfu.\nSince 2:00UT the level is gently rising again to current levels of 2-3 pfu.\nThis is likely to increase further and a warning condition is issued for\nthe coming days.\nThe full halo CME associated to the double peaked M2 flare from Catania\ngroup 92 (NOAA region 2371) located just east off the central meridian\n(about -13 degrees at the time of the event), has its first appearance in\nSoHO/LASCO C2 images at 2:36UT. The halo is fairly symmetric with principle\ndirection only slightly northeast (CACTUS software erroneously interpreted\nthe event as three separate events with limited angular extent). Measured\nprojected speeds are around 1000-1300 km/s. This CME is definitely\nearthbound and may interact with the June 19 CME. A combined arrival of\nthose is expected from June 22 afternoon onwards.\nSolar wind is still at nominal levels with the speed and total magnetic\nfield dropping further to low values of 280 km/s and 2nT respectively. Bz\nwas variable in the +-1.5 nT range.\nCorresponding quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were recorded (NOAA\nKp 0-1, local K Dourbes 0-3).\nSolar wind conditions are expected to become perturbed later today by a\nglancing blow from the June 18 CME, followed by the arrival of another\nglancing blow from the June 19 CME and the arrival of the June 21 CME from\nthe afternoon of June 22 onwards.\nMinor to moderate geomagnetic storms may occur later today and tomorrow\nwith possibly major to severe storms late June 22 and June 23 associated to\nthe arrival of the June 21 CME.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 046, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Jun 2015\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 135\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 006\nAK WINGST : 002\nESTIMATED AP : 003\nESTIMATED ISN : 048, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \n21 0102 0142 0200 N12E13 M2.0 1N 100 92/2371 VI/2 \n21 0938 0944 0950 ////// M3.8 120 /////// \nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-22T01:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.98", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-06-21T04:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1300\nLongitude (deg): E07\nLatitude (deg): N08\nHalf-angular width (deg): \n43\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:Duty" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-22T03:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T21:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.57", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-06-21T18:02:19Z\n## Message ID: 20150621-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2015-06-21T02:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1250 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 47 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -8/7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001\n\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-06-22T21:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150621_050100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150621_050100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150621_050100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150621_050100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150621_050100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150621_050100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001) is associated with an M2.0 flare with ID 2015-06-21T01:22:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2015-06-21T01:42Z and an M2.6 flare with ID 2015-06-21T02:10:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2015-06-21T02:36Z.\n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-22T03:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T19:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.15, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 3.33, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 7.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "14.45", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Spitzer, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-06-21T22:17:39Z\n## Message ID: 20150621-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20150621-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Spitzer. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Spitzer between about 2015-06-23T09:21Z and 2015-06-23T13:19Z (average arrival 2015-06-23T11:20Z) for 6% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-06-22T13:54Z and 2015-06-23T02:23Z (average arrival 2015-06-22T19:03Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 44% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 7-8 range (strong to severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028/20150621_024800_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028/20150621_024800_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028/20150621_024800_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028/20150621_024800_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028/20150621_024800_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028_arrival_Spitzer.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028/20150621_024800_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028_Spitz_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028/Detailed_results_20150621_024800_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX028.txt\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-22T06:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.52", "predictionNote" : "1st run\nCME arrival at target (date & UT time): June, 22 2015 at 23UT\nImpact speed at target (at 1.02 AU): 794 km/s\nInput parameters: \nCME take-off date & UT time: 21-JUN-2015 at 05UT\n? = 0.10×10-7 km-1, w = 450 km/s,\nR0 = 15 rSun, v0 = 1200 km/s, ? = 30°, ?CME = -10°\nRtarget = 1.02 AU, ?target = 0° \n\n2nd run\nCME arrival at target (date & UT time): June 23, 2015 at 06UT\nImpact speed at target (at 1.02 AU): 684 km/s\nInput parameters:\nCME take-off date & UT time: 21-JUN-2015 at 05UT\n? = 0.10×10-7 km-1, w = 400 km/s,\nR0 = 15 rSun, v0 = 1000 km/s, ? = 30°, ?CME = -10°\nRtarget = 1.02 AU, ?target = 0° \n\nWe used Schween (2005) and Gopalswamy relation for halo CME expansion to radial speed. From this we derive around 1000-1200 km/s at a distance of 15Rs. The solar wind is expected to be of 400km/s as derived from SolarWind Forecasting tools (http://swe.uni-graz.at/solarwind/)." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ELEvo", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-22T09:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T22:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "8.65", "predictionNote" : "I used the ElEvo model, which is a 2D extension to DBM:\n\nreference: Möstl et al. 2015\nhttp://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150526/ncomms8135/full/ncomms8135.html\n\nKevin Schenk CME measurements sent out via soho-halo-alert@mail.nascom.nasa.gov give me the initial speed 1300 km/s on 21 June 2015 0530 at 20 Rs, assume E13 as propagation direction; this is the source position of the flare. I vary initial speed (+/-100 km/s) and direction (E3 to E23)\n\nElEvo parameters:\ndrag parameter: 0.1-0.15, low value because of the 2 previous CMEs\nBackground wind = 400 km/s of as seen in real time by ACE on early June 22\n\nhalfwidth=50 (assuming full width 100° for wide CMEs)\nellipse aspect ratio: 1.4 +/- 0.2\n\ngives errors in arrival 22 Jun 18:10 830 km/s to 23 Jun 06:30 616 km/s, for extreme choices of the parameters that produce early or late arrivals; the average values are:\n\ngamma=0.125\naspect ratio =1.4\ninitial speed =1300 km/s\ngives arrival at Wind: 22 June 22:50 with shock speed 730 km/s\n\nSUMMARY:\nElEvo predicts the CME shock to arrive at Wind 22 June 22:50 UT (-5h / + 8h) with shock speed of 730 km/s +/-100 km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-22T15:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "2.60", "predictionNote" : "Product: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2015 Jun 22 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 22-Jun 24 2015 is 7 (NOAA Scale\nG3).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 22-Jun 24 2015\n\n Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24\n00-03UT 3 6 (G2) 4 \n03-06UT 3 6 (G2) 4 \n06-09UT 3 5 (G1) 3 \n09-12UT 3 4 2 \n12-15UT 6 (G2) 4 2 \n15-18UT 7 (G3) 4 2 \n18-21UT 7 (G3) 3 2 \n21-00UT 6 (G2) 3 3 \n\nRationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled\nuntil the arrival of the combination of the 18, 19, and 21 Jun coronal\nmass ejections (CMEs) around midday on day one (22 Jun). G1-Minor to\nG3-Strong geomagnetic storm conditions are expected during the latter\nhalf of the day, followed by G1-Minor to G2-Moderate geomagnetic storm\nconditions on day two (23 Jun) as CME activity persists." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T19:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 97.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.8, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-83690.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-83690.95", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-06-19T06:42:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-06-19T06:42Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T04:51Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : -44, "dstMinTime" : "2015-06-22T17:00Z", "cmeNote" : "Filament eruption below AR12371. Faint front in C3", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-19T17:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "16.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.45", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-19T17:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T06:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.02", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-06-19T17:50:25Z\n## Message ID: 20150619-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2015-06-19T06:42Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~603 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 54 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 9/-33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-06-19T06:42:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-06-22T06:04Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-06-19T06:42:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150619_145900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150619_145900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150619_145900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150619_145900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150619_145900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150619_145900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThere is also a glancing blow expected at NASA missions near Earth from CME with ID 2015-06-18T17:24:00-CME-001. Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it was estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth between 2015-06-20T19:48Z and 2015-06-21T09:27Z (average arrival 2015-06-21T02:20Z) for 31% of simulations (see notifications 20150619-AL-001 and 20150619-AL-002). We are currently in the process of conducting a joint analysis of both CMEs. \n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-19T20:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 30.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.43", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Jun 19 2017 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe second CME reported earlier today in the URSIGRAM is a partial halo CME first visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images at 6:42 UT (with a data gap between 6:42 UT and the earlier reported time of appearance 8:25UT). As reported earlier, it is associated with the flaring of the filament channel stretching over the south-eastern quadrant which starts around 5:00 UT.\nThe angular width of the CME is around 180 degrees, and it is directed predominantly southward. Measured projected speeds are around 500 km/s. With its southward direction and limited speed a possible glancing blow is not expected before June 22, late morning.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-19T23:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T13:43Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.87", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.92", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\nEstimate issued Fri Jun 19 22:10:22 UTC 2015\n\nView full results at http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027\n=================================Earth===================================\n\nEarth (summary, more details follow below):\nNumber_of_hits_Earth=48\nNumber_of_miss_Earth= 0\nPercentage_hits_Earth=100.00%\nEarliest 2015-06-22T05:54\nAverage 2015-06-22T13:43\nLatest 2015-06-22T22:13\nKp_90_min,Kp_90_avg,Kp_90_max = 3 3 5\nKp_135_min,Kp_135_avg,Kp_135_max= 4 5 7\nKp_180_min,Kp_180_avg,Kp_180_max= 5 5 7\nKp_all_min,Kp_all_avg,Kp_all_max= 3 5 7\nKp_all_weighted min, avg, max = 3 4 7\nSigma Kp_90,Kp_135,Kp_180,Kp_all= 0.49 0.58 0.58 1.05\n====Kp90,135,180 probability of occurrence histogram (%)\n 0 0 19 75 6 0 0 0 0\n 0 0 0 2 50 46 2 0 0\n 0 0 0 0 19 67 15 0 0\n====Kp all clock angles (equal weights)\n 0 0 6 26 25 38 6 0 0\n====Kp all clock angles (unequal weights 1 2 1)\n 0 0 5 20 31 40 5 0 0\nKp bins 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9\n==========================================================================================\n....................................... FLOATING POINT ...................................\nKp_90fp_min,Kp_90fp_avg,Kp_90fp_max = 3.2 3.9 4.9\nKp_135fp_min,Kp_135fp_avg,Kp_135fp_max= 4.5 5.5 6.5\nKp_180fp_min,Kp_180fp_avg,Kp_180fp_max= 4.9 6.0 7.0\nKp_allfp_min,Kp_allfp_avg,Kp_allfp_max= 3.2 5.1 7.0\nKp_allfp_weighted min, avg, max = 3.2 4.2 7.0\nSigma Kp_90,Kp_135,Kp_180,Kp_all fp = 0.42 0.53 0.54 1.00\n====kp90,135,180 FP probability of occurrence histogram (%)\n 0 0 54 46 0 0 0 0 0\n 0 0 0 19 67 15 0 0 0\n 0 0 0 2 50 46 2 0 0\n====Kp FP all clock angles (equal weights)\n 0 0 18 22 39 20 1 0 0\n====Kp FP all clock angles (unequal weights 1 2 1)\n 0 0 14 21 46 19 1 0 0\nKp bins 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9\n==========================================================================================\nDuration_min= 23.1 h\nDuration_avg= 26.6 h\nDuration_max=125.9 h\nStandard deviation=14.7 h\nmp_standoff_min= 5.4 Re\nmp_standoff_avg= 5.9 Re\nmp_standoff_max= 6.4 Re\nStandard deviation= 0.3 Re\n\nEarth results for median input parameters:\nArrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs)\n2015-06-22T12:42 4 6 6 5.8 24.0\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_anim_tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n===========================other locations===============================\n\nSpitzer:\nNumber_of_hits_Spitz= 0\nNumber_of_miss_Spitz=48\nPercentage_hits_Spitz= 0%\nNo CME simulation in this ensemble hit Spitzer or the impact is weak\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_Spitz_stack.gif\n\nSTEREO A:\nNumber_of_hits_STA= 0\nNumber_of_miss_STA=48\nPercentage_hits_STA= 0%\nNo CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO A or the impact is weak\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_STA_stack.gif\n\nSTEREO B:\nNumber_of_hits_STB= 0\nNumber_of_miss_STB=48\nPercentage_hits_STB= 0%\nNo CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO B or the impact is weak\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_STB_stack.gif\n\nMars:\nNumber_of_hits_Mars= 0\nNumber_of_miss_Mars=48\nPercentage_hits_Mars= 0%\nNo CME simulation in this ensemble hit Mars or the impact is weak\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_Mars_stack.gif\n\n=======================================\n### Notification information (missions near Earth)\n\n.... Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 48 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-06-22T05:54Z and 2015-06-22T22:13Z (average arrival 2015-06-22T13:43Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 57% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/Detailed_results_20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027.txt\n###" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-20T02:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-21T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.85", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-20T12:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-23T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.38", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\n\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-06-19T17:00Z\n\nRadial velocity (km/s): 400km/s\nLongitude (deg): W15\nLatitude (deg): S25\nHalf-angular width (deg): 55\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T09:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 63.3333, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-83704.08", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-22T10:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-83704.08", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-06-18T17:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-06-18T17:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-06-21T15:40Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Clear indication of CME in AIA 171 and 193: opening/rising field lines starting around 16:30Z, followed by dimmings, two-ribbon flare, outflows. The CME was fast and bright, and also had a 360-degree halo/asymmetric shock structure.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-19T01:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-21T02:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.53, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.12, "confidenceInPercentage" : 31.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.35", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Spitzer, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-06-19T01:19:05Z\n## Message ID: 20150619-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2015-06-18T17:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20150619-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Spitzer. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Spitzer between about 2015-06-20T21:17Z and 2015-06-21T12:56Z (average arrival 2015-06-21T02:02Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-06-20T19:48Z and 2015-06-21T09:27Z (average arrival 2015-06-21T02:20Z) for 31% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 85% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-18_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026/20150618_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-18_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026/20150618_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-18_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026/20150618_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-18_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026/20150618_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-18_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026/20150618_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026_arrival_Spitzer.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-18_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026/20150618_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026_Spitz_stack.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-18_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026/Detailed_results_20150618_172400_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX026.txt\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-19T01:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-21T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.28", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2015 Jun 19 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar Activity was at moderate levels. Region 2371 (N12E33,\nEkc/ beta-gamma-delta) produced a long-duration, M3/ 1n flare at 18/1736\nUTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep and Tenflare (2300 sfu). The\nregion grew and increased magnetic complexity. An asymetric, full-halo\ncoronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery\nat 18/1724 UTC. Analysis and a WSA-Enlil model run indicate a likely\nglancing blow at Earth late on 21 Jun/early 22 Jun.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2015 Jun 20 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 20-Jun 22 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 20-Jun 22 2015\n\n Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun 22\n00-03UT 1 2 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 1 2 5 (G1)\n06-09UT 1 2 4 \n09-12UT 1 2 4 \n12-15UT 1 2 3 \n15-18UT 2 2 3 \n18-21UT 2 2 2 \n21-00UT 2 3 2" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-19T01:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-21T09:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 31.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.70", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2015-06-18T03:18Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~693 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -53/23 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-06-18T03:18:00-CME-001\n\n2: O-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n\nStart time of the event: 2015-06-18T17:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1000 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -50/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2015-06-18T17:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Spitzer. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Spitzer at 2015-06-21T13:14Z (plus or minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have an impact (or a glancing blow) at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-06-21T09:26Z (plus or minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-5 (below minor to minor)." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-19T11:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-21T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.82", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Jun 19 0830 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nAn asymmetric full halo CME is visible in SoHO/LASCO data, from 17:24 UT (June 18) onwards. The event is associated to the long duration M3.0 flare from Catania group 92 (NOAA region 2371) peaking at 17:36UT with an associated dimming and EUV wave. The bulk of the mass is expelled in Western direction off the Sun-Earth line (with the source region located at longitude -45 degrees approximately at the time of the event) with a projected speed of around 600 km/s.\nImpact of this CME on Earth is expected late June 21 or early June 22.\n\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n\n:Issued: 2015 Jun 19 1230 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50619\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jun 2015, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Jun 2015 until 21 Jun 2015)\nSOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jun 2015 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 008\nPREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jun 2015 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jun 2015 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 046\nCOMMENT: Solar flaring activity was moderate with a long duration M3.0\nflare originating from Catania group 92 (NOAA 2371) peaking around 17:36UT.\nIt was associated with a dimming and an EUV wave and a corresponding\nasymmetric halo in SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images. Several further C flares\nwere recorded from Catania groups 92 (including a C8.1 flare peaking at\n9:27UT) as well as 87 (NOAA 2371 and 2367 respectively). Catania group 92\nhas a complex beta-gamma-delta configuration while also Catania group 87\ndeserves continued attention.\nFlaring at M level is likely for the next days from those two sources.\nThe 10 MeV proton flux remained above the event threshold for most of the\nafternoon of June 18. Since around midnight flux values are below the event\nthreshold and further declining.\nThe asymmetric full halo CME associated to the M3.0 flare is visible in\nSoHO/LASCO data, from 17:24 UT (June 18) onwards in the C2 field of view.\nThe bulk of the mass is expelled in Eastern direction off the Sun-Earth\nline (with the source region located at longitude -45 degrees approximately\nat the time of the event) with a projected speed of around 1000km/s (Cactus\nsoftware is underestimating the speed).\nImpact of this CME on Earth is currently expected before UT noon June 21.\nAnother CME is visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 data from 8:25UT onwards (after a\ndatagap). It is directed predominantly southward and associated with a\nfilament eruption in the south-east quadrant. We await further data for\nassessment of possible Earth-directed CME component.\nSolar wind conditions are gradually further restoring to nominal. Solar\nwind speed decreased from around 420 km/s to around 370 km/s. total\nmagnetic field was in the 4-5nT range with variable Bz.\nGeomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3, local K\nDourbes 0-3).\nQuiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24-36 hours, with\nafterwards the likely impact of the June 18 17:24UT CME arriving around or\nbefore noon June 21 with possible associated geomagnetic storm conditions.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 053, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Jun 2015\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 151\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 012\nAK WINGST : 010\nESTIMATED AP : 010\nESTIMATED ISN : 063, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \n18 0033 0127 0155 ////// M1.2 85/2365 CTM/1VI/1 \n18 1630 1736 1825 N15E50 M3.0 1N 2200 92/2371 III/1IV/2 \nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-19T14:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-21T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.42", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-06-21T16:00Z Radial velocity (km/s): 900km/s \nLongitude (deg): E039\nLatitude (deg): N15 \nHalf-angular width (deg): 50\n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-21T11:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 43.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.25, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.4, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-83717.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-21T09:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 35.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-83717.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-06-09T20:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-06-09T20:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-06-12T12:19Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Associated with an eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304 around 2015-06-09T20:00Z from AR 2364. Also connected to the C2.8 flare also from AR 2364 around the same time.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-10T18:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-12T12:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.95", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-06-10T18:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-12T10:24Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.88", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-12T11:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-83936.62", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-06-12T11:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 95.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-83936.62", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-05-06T17:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-05-06T17:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-05-10T00:00Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME arrival time very unclear, could be later in the day", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-05-07T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-05-10T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.50", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 May 07 1230 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50507\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 May 2015, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 07 May 2015 until 09 May 2015)\nSOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 07 May 2015 10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 011\nPREDICTIONS FOR 08 May 2015 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 09 May 2015 10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 007\nCOMMENT: Solar activity continues to be dominated by NOAA ARs 2235 (Catania\n51) and 2239 (Catania 54). The strongest flare was an M1.9, from AR 2239\npeaking at 11:49 UT on May 6. A filament eruption to the east of NOAA AR\n2235 created a partial halo CME (with angular width around 140 degrees and\nspeed of 300 km/s), first seen by LASCO-C2 at 19:00 UT on May 6. This CME\nis mostly directed to the south, but it may have an Earth directed\ncomponent, expected to arrive on May 10.\n\nActive conditions (K=4) were observed yesterday locally in Belgium and\nminor storms (Kp=5) at planetary levels. The Earth is still under the\ninfluence of the CME from May 2 with magnetic fields slightly above 10 nT.\nIf Bz turns to the south active conditions may occur again.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 101, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 06 May 2015\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 136\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 035\nAK WINGST : 028\nESTIMATED AP : 029\nESTIMATED ISN : 085, BASED ON 25 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \n06 1145 1149 1151 N17E67 M1.9 SN 34 54/2339 V/3 \nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-05-07T15:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-05-09T19:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.03", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-05-07T16:33:01Z\n## Message ID: 20150507-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2015-05-06T17:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~576 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 26/-11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-05-06T17:00:00-CME-001\n\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-05-09T19:35Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-05-06T17:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150506_232600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150506_232600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150506_232600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150506_232600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150506_232600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150506_232600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-05-08T01:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-05-09T18:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 1.83, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 1.72, "confidenceInPercentage" : 9.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.22", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-05-08T02:02:05Z\n## Message ID: 20150508-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2015-05-06T17:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20150507-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 32 ensemble members (see notes section), 3 (9%) indicate a flank impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-05-09T16:31Z and 2015-05-09T20:04Z (average arrival 2015-05-09T18:21Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates a maximum Kp index in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-05-06_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX024/20150506_170020_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX024_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-05-06_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX024/20150506_170020_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX024_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-05-06_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX024/20150506_170020_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX024_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-05-06_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX024/20150506_170020_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX024_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-05-06_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX024/Detailed_results_20150506_170020_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX024.txt\n\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-05-10T00:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 9.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-84740.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-05-09T19:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 9.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-84740.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-05-02T21:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-05-02T21:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-05-06T00:50Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "large filament eruption", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-05-03T03:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-05-07T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "41.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.95", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-05-04T02:58:13Z\n## Message ID: 20150504-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2015-05-02T21:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20150503-AL-001). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-05-07T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). Note that the simulation only predicts a very weak impact.\n\n\nUpdated S-type CME parameters are:\n\nStart time of the event: 2015-05-02T21:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~286 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 56 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -10/-45 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-05-02T21:36:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-05-02T21:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150503_112200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150503_112200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150503_112200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150503_112200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150503_112200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150503_112200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-05-04T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-05-06T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.33", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nSWPC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n\nNotes:\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2015 May 04 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was low this period. Region 2335 (S16E37, Dac/beta)\nproduced multiple C1 flares this period and continued to show signs of\noverall growth. Region 2336 (N13E12, Bxo/beta) decayed this period and\nnew Regions 2237 (S16E56, Axx/alpha) and 2338 (N04E56, Axx/alpha) were\nnumbered this period but were otherwise unremarkable.\n\nAn asymmetrical partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with\nyesterday's disappearing solar filament in the southern hemisphere\nbetween 02/1500-1800 UTC was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning\nat 02/2112 UTC. Subsequent forecaster analysis and WSA-ENLIL model\nguidance suggests CME arrival at around 1600 UTC on day three (06 May).\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be low over the next three days (04-06 May)\ndue to flare activity from Region 2335 and the return of old Region 2322\n(N12, L=119) which produced six M-class flares last rotation and was\nlikely the source of recent back-sided activity indicated by coronagraph\nimagery.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels\nthis period, reaching a peak flux value of 194 pfu at 03/1815 UTC. The\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the\nperiod.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to\nmoderate levels over the next three days (04-06 May) and the greater\nthan 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels\nthroughout the forecast period.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were indicative of waning influence of a positive\npolarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind velocity\nwas steady at around 400 km/s, IMF total field values decreased from 7\nnT to 5 nT, and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -5 nT late\nin the period. The phi angle remained in a positive (away from the Sun)\nsolar sector orientation.\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to be at near-background levels on\nday one (04 May) and through the majority of day two (05 May) under a\nnominal solar wind regime. A minor solar wind enhancement is likely\nlate on day two (05 May) through midday on day three (06 May) due to the\nonset of a weak negative polarity CH HSS. A further solar wind\nenhancement is anticipated at around 1600 UTC on 06 May due to the\narrival of the 02 May CME.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled levels between\n03/0000-0600 UTC due to remnant CH HSS effects but decreased to quiet\nlevels after 0600 UTC where it remained for the rest of the period as CH\nHSS influence subsided.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04\nMay) and through the majority of day two (05 May) under an ambient solar\nwind environment. Unsettled field conditions are expected late on day\ntwo (05 May) through midday on day three (06 May) due to the onset of a\nnegative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active geomagnetic field\nconditions are likely beginning at around 1600 UTC on day three (06 May)\ndue to the anticipated arrival of the 02 May CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-05-05T13:36Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-05-06T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "11.23", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-05-06T04:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 530 \nLongitude (deg): E10 \nLatitude (deg): S13 \nHalf-angular width (deg): 32 \n\nNotes: Low confidence in timing of arrival\nSpace weather advisor: Chris Bulmer" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-05-06T20:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-84836.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-05-06T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-84836.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-04-06T20:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-04-06T20:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-04-10T00:00Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-04-07T07:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-09T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.65", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2015 Apr 07 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity remained at low levels. In addition to flare/CME from 5\nApril, a second event was observed from near Region 2320 (S12E22,\nDai/Beta-gamma) just after 07/0200 UTC. Analysis was completed on the\nevent once LASCO imagery became available. Both transients were loaded\ninto an ENLIL run - suggesting a partial blow possible on 9-10 April.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is forecast to remain low with a slight chance for a\nM-class flare over the next three days (7-9 April)." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-04-07T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-09T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.50", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Apr 07 1230 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50407\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Apr 2015, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 07 Apr 2015 until 09 Apr 2015)\nSOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 07 Apr 2015 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 009\nPREDICTIONS FOR 08 Apr 2015 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 018\nPREDICTIONS FOR 09 Apr 2015 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 017\nCOMMENT: The Sun released one C3.0 flare during the past 24 hours. It was\nproduced by NOAA AR 2320, peaked at 19:06 UT on April 6 and was associated\nto a dimming, an EUV wave, a surge, a CME and a Type II radio burst. The\nCME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 19:24 UT and had an angular extent of\nabout 140 degrees. The plane-of-sky speed derived by CACTUS was 339 km/s,\nwhile the Type II burst corresponds to a speed of 691 km/s. This CME may\ndeliver a glancing blow in the second half of April 9. In the next 24\nhours, more C flaring is expected, with a slight chance for an M flare,\nespecially from AR 2320 and 2318. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from\nabout 480 to 400 km/s over the past 24 hours, while the Interplanetary\nMagnetic Field magnitude varied between 1 and 5 nT. Over the past 24 hours,\ngeomagnetic conditions have been quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp\nbetween 1 and 2). There is a chance for active geomagnetic levels (K\nDourbes = 4) late on April 7 and on April 8, due to a possible glancing\nblow of the CME of April 4. Quiet conditions with active intervals are\npossible in the second half of April 9, as a result of a glancing blow from\nthe CME of April 6.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 040, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 06 Apr 2015\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 126\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010\nAK WINGST : 005\nESTIMATED AP : 005\nESTIMATED ISN : 039, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-04-07T14:48Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-09T08:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.20", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-04-07T14:48:57Z\n## Message ID: 20150407-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2015-04-06T20:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~917 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -15/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-04-06T20:36:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-04-09T08:18Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate). \n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-04-06T20:36:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150406_230300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150406_230300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150406_230300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150406_230300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150406_230300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150406_230300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \nUpdate on this event will be provided when more images are available.\n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-04-07T21:44Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-09T07:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.76, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.27", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-04-07T23:16:02Z\n## Message ID: 20150407-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2015-04-06T20:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20150407-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-04-08T23:37Z and 2015-04-09T16:16Z (average arrival 2015-04-09T07:37Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 93% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-6 range (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-04-07_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX016/20150406_203600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX016_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-04-07_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX016/20150406_203600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX016_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-04-07_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX016/20150406_203600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX016_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-04-07_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX016/20150406_203600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX016_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n# Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-04-07_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX016/Detailed_results_20150406_203600_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX016.txt\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-04-08T16:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-09T14:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.77", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \nRadial velocity (km/s): \nLongitude (deg): \nLatitude (deg): \nHalf-angular width (deg): \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-09T12:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-85460.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-09T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-85460.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-04-04T23:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-04-04T23:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-04-09T01:10Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME is associated with part of a filament eruption on the SE area close to AR 2320. Eruption can be seen in SDO 193/304.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-04-05T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-08T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "84.67", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Apr 05 1230 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 50405\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Apr 2015, 1230UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Apr 2015 until 07 Apr 2015)\nSOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 05 Apr 2015 10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 06 Apr 2015 10CM FLUX: 121 / AP: 010\nPREDICTIONS FOR 07 Apr 2015 10CM FLUX: 123 / AP: 009\nCOMMENT: Four active regions were reported by NOAA today. However, the two\nstrongest flares of the past 24 hours did not occur in any of them. The\nC1.9 flare peaking at 03:36 UT today took place behind the north-west limb.\nThe C3.8 flare peaking at 00:07 UT today was associated with a filament\neruption in the south-east quadrant (to the south of NOAA ARs 2319 and\n2320). A partial halo CME was associated with this flare. It first appeared\nin the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 23:36 UT on April 4, had the angular\nwidth of at least 230 degrees and projected plane-of-the-sky speed around\n760 km/s. SDO/AIA data show that the CME was also accompanied by coronal\ndimmings and a post-eruption arcade. The bulk of the CME material is\ndirected eastward of the Sun-Earth line, so we expect only a glancing blow\nfrom this CME (probably the CME-driven shock) late on April 7 or early on\nApril 8. More C-class flares are expected, especially in the NOAA AR 2320.\nThe Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with intermediate speed\n(around 520 km/s) and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude of around\n6 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled (K" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-04-05T15:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-07T01:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-47.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.48", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Juno, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-04-05T15:41:23Z\n## Message ID: 20150405-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2015-04-04T23:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20150405-AL-002). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2015-04-09T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n \nPrevious simulations also indicate that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-04-07T01:12Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n\nCME parameters are (O-type):\n\nStart time of the event: 2015-04-04T23:36Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1090 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -29/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-04-04T23:36:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-04-04T23:36:00-CME-001):\n\n(a) 2 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150405_024500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150405_024500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150405_024500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150405_024500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150405_024500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150405_024500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150405_024500_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa3.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150405_024500_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-04-05T21:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-06T23:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.17, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.78, "confidenceInPercentage" : 97.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-49.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.98", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-04-06T01:30:17Z\n## Message ID: 20150406-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2015-04-04T23:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20150405-AL-003). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 47 (97%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-04-06T17:47Z and 2015-04-07T12:44Z (average arrival 2015-04-06T23:57Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 76% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-04-05_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX015/20150405_083000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX015_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-04-05_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX015/20150405_083000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX015_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-04-05_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX015/20150405_083000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX015_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-04-05_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX015/20150405_083000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX015_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-04-05_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX015/Detailed_results_20150405_083000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX015.txt\n###\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-04-06T06:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-07T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 40.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.33", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2015-04-05T03:39Z \nRadial velocity (km/s): 870 \nLongitude (deg): E038 \nLatitude (deg): S26 \nHalf-angular width (deg): 32 \n\nNotes: Glancing blow at best with most of the CME expected to go the the south and east of Earth. \nSpace weather advisor: Chris Bulmer (updated by)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-07T11:32Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 68.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-37.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-85483.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-04-07T11:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 68.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-38.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-85483.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2015-03-15T02:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2015-03-15T02:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2015-03-17T04:05Z", "maxKP" : 7.67, "dstMin" : -223, "dstMinTime" : "2015-03-17T23:00Z", "cmeNote" : "This CME is connected to the long duration C9.1 flare with start at 01:15 and peak at 02:13, flare is centered in AR 2297, large part of the filament W of AR is also erupting, bright post-flare arcade later in AR 2297", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-03-15T07:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-03-17T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.72", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2015 Mar 15 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity remained at moderate levels with an impulsive M1/Sn flare\nobserved at 15/0940 UTC observed from Region 2297 (S17W32,\nEkc/beta-gamma-delta). However, the most significant activity occurred\nduring a sequence of events early on 15 Mar.\n\nIt began with a 14 degree long filament eruption, centered near S24W38,\nobserved lifting off between 15/0045-0200 UTC. SDO/AIA 193 and 304\nimagery observed dimming with a wave moving over the SW quadrant. At\n15/0041 UTC, a C2/Sf flare was observed from Region 2297 which was\nfollowed by a long duration C9/1f flare that started at 15/0115 UTC,\npeaked at 15/0213 UTC and ended at 15/0320 UTC. Associated with the\nC9/1f were low-frequency radio emissions to include Type II (745 km/s)\nand Type IV signatures observed at 15/0127 UTC.\n\nSOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 imagery observed an asymmetric, full-halo CME first\nvisible at 15/0136 UTC and 15/0206 UTC, respectively. Initial analysis\nof coronagraph imagery and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests a\nglancing blow from the western flank of the CME very late on 17 Mar into\n18 Mar. As more imagery becomes available, additional analysis will be\nperformed.\n\nRegion 2297 continued to undergo minor penumbral decay this period but\nmaintained two delta spot areas and a complex magnetic classification. \nThe remaining two spotted regions were also in decay.\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be moderate with M-class\n(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity and a slight chance for X-class\n(R3 or greater) flare activity over the next three days (15-17 Mar).\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater\nthan 10 MeV proton flux became enhanced between beginning about 15/0300\nUTC following the events of early 15 Mar. Peak flux was observed at 4\npfu at 15/0940 UTC and levels were still enhanced as of this report.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to\nmoderate levels over the next three days (15-17 Mar). There is an\nincreasing chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at the S1\n(Minor) solar radiation storm threshold for the next three days (15-17\nMar) as complex Region 2297 moves into a more geoeffective position.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were indicative on a nominal solar wind regime. \nSolar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 345 km/s to\nend-of-period values near 315 km/s. IMF total field values ranged\nbetween 1-7 nT. The Bz component was mostly north to 5 nT through about\n14/2030 UTC when a rotation to mostly south was observed with a maximum\nsouthward extent of -4 nT. The phi angle was steady in a positive\n(away) solar sector configuration until 14/2138 UTC when it switched to\na negative (towards) sector.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced over the next three\ndays (15-17 Mar) due to the anticipated arrival of the 11 Mar CME on day\none and the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream\n(CH HSS) on day three coupled with possible effects from the 15 Mar CME.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under a nominal solar wind\nregime.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day\none (15 Mar) due to the anticipated arrival of the 11 Mar CME and on day\nthree (17 Mar) due to the onset of a negative polarity southern polar CH\nHSS coupled with possible effects from the 15 Mar CME. Quiet to\nunsettled field activity is likely on day two (16 Mar).\n \nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2015 Mar 16 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 16-Mar 18 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 16-Mar 18 2015\n\n Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18\n00-03UT 2 3 4 \n03-06UT 2 3 5 (G1)\n06-09UT 3 3 4 \n09-12UT 2 3 3 \n12-15UT 2 2 3 \n15-18UT 1 3 3 \n18-21UT 2 3 3 \n21-00UT 2 4 4 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day three (18\nMar) due to a combination of CME activity from 15 Mar as well as\nrecurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "COMESEP", "submissionTime" : "2015-03-15T07:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-03-17T18:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 15.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 26.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "14.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.27", "predictionNote" : "www.comesep.eu/alert/\n\nThe risk level for a CME geomagnetic storm is MEDIUM following the observation of a CME that erupted at 02:00 on 2015-03-15 UTC. The risk level results from the following forecasted parameters: 1) occurrence probability: POSSIBLE 2) storm level: STRONG\n\nThe halo or partial-halo CME detected on 15-03-2015 at 02:00 UT by CACTUS is foreseen to reach 1 AU on 17-03-2015 at 18:08 UT with a transit speed of 497 km/s calculated by DBM running at Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-03-15T12:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-03-16T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.00", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2015 Mar 15 1205 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was reported by CACTus and first seen in LASCO/C2 images at 02:00UT on 15-Mar-2015. This CME was related to a C9.1 flare from NOAA 2297 peaking at 02:13UT. The related CME had a plane of the sky speed of 712 km/s, and a width of 160 degrees. The bulk of the CME is directed away from Earth to the West, but a glancing blow can not be ruled out based on current imagery. The CME is estimated to arrive at Earth on 16 March at 18:00UT (+/- 12 hours).\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n# #\n# Legal notices: #\n# - Intellectual Property Rights: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf #\n# - Liability Disclaimer: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf #\n# - Use and processing of your personal information: #\n# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2015-03-15T17:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-03-17T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.58", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-03-15T05:23Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 840\nLongitude (deg): W030\nLatitude (deg): S18\nHalf-angular width (deg): 40\n\nNotes: Low to moderate confidence in timing with the likelihood that it will arrive later than the WSA ENLIL model suggests.\nSpace weather advisor: Andrew Sibley" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-03-15T19:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-03-17T11:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.75", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-03-15T19:20:25Z\n## Message ID: 20150315-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2015-03-15T02:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~750 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 32/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2015-03-15T02:00:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-03-17T11:39Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-03-15T02:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150315_064500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150315_064500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150315_064500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150315_064500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150315_064500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150315_064500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2015-03-15T02:00:00-CME-001) is associated with C9.1 flare with ID 2015-03-15T01:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2015-03-15T02:13Z.\n\n[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2015-03-16T02:54Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-03-17T11:48Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.18", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2015-03-16T02:54:40Z\n## Message ID: 20150316-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2015-03-15T02:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20150315-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-03-17T06:30Z and 2015-03-17T19:32Z (average arrival 2015-03-17T11:48Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-03-15_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX005/20150315_020000_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX005_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-03-15_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX005/20150315_020000_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX005_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-03-15_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX005/20150315_020000_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX005_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif\n\n## Notes:\nEnsemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-03-15_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX005/Detailed_results_20150315_020000_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX005.txt\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-03-17T10:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 71.6667, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.4, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-86032.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2015-03-17T11:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 60.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-86032.85", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-12-20T00:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-12-20T00:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-12-22T14:28Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "associated to the X1.8 flare with peak time 2014-12-20T00:24Z. Shock arrival time verification still pending. Another shock was observed on 2014-12-23T10:33Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-20T21:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-23T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.77", "predictionNote" : "https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/7428/1\n\n\nModel Inputs:\n2014-12-20T01:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=23.0, Lat.=-43.0, Speed=964.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2014-12-20T04:09Z \n\nModel Outputs:\nEarth Impact:\n(Glancing Blow) Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2014-12-23T06:00Z (confidence level +- 7 hours)\n\nOther Location(s) Impact:\n\nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif \nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif \nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif \nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif \nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif \nInner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif \nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif \nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif \nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif \nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif \nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif \nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mess_timeline.gif \nTimelines Link = \nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif \nTimelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-21T00:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-22T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.10", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2014-12-20T0357z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1059\nLongitude (deg): 14\nLatitude (deg): -36\nHalf-angular width (deg): 36\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-21T12:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-22T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.28", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Dec 21 1211 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nCACTUS issued a halo CME alert at 10:44 UT on December 21, about a CME first detected by CACTUS on LASCO C2 imagery at 00:48 UT on December 20. This CME is probably associated to the X1.8 flare of December 20. It is a partial halo CME with an angular extent of about 180 degrees, and the main bulk directed towards the southwest. Based on LASCO C3 images, an Earth directed speed of 1180 km/s was derived. The CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth with estimated arrival time 10h UT on December 22. The CME from December 19 is expected to arrive at Earth on December 21. As a result, active to minor storm geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-21T16:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-22T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "21.78", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nSimulation done with a combination of 2 CMEs:\n\nModel Inputs:\n2014-12-19T00:27:00-CME-001 \n2014-12-20T01:25:00-CME-001\n\nLink to results: \nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/7438/1" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-22T13:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-88062.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-22T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-88062.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-12-19T00:27:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-12-19T00:27Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-12-21T18:22Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "assocaited with M6.9 flare with peak time2014-12-18T21:41Z. Shock arrival time verification still pending.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-19T02:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-21T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.85", "predictionNote" : "Notes:\n(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by Yaireska Collado)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction).\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Dec 19 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at moderate levels due to an M6/2N (R2-moderate)\nflare which occurred at 18/2158 UTC from Region 2241 (S09W00,\nEkc/beta-gamma-delta) and an M1/1n (R1-Minor) at 19/0944 UTC from Region\n2242 (S18W23, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). An associated Type-II radio sweep\n(estimated speed of 664 km/s) was observed associated with the M6 flare\nas well as an asymmetric full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first\nobserved in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 19/0104 UTC. There was a\nconcurrent filament eruption off the SE limb during this time, however\nimagery gaps preclude the differentiation of the two events. Continued\ngrowth was observed in the intermediate areas of Regions 2241 and 2242\nwith very apparent E-W oriented deltas. WSA/ENLIL modeling of the CME\nshows a likely arrival around early to mid-day on 21 December.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)\nlevels for the next three days (19-21 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242\ncontinue to grow in areal coverage as well as maintain complex magnetic\nstructures. A chance also exists for an isolated X-class event\n(R3-Strong) during the forecast period.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters continued at nominal levels with solar wind speeds\naround 330 to 420 km/s. Total field was relatively steady near 7 nT\nwith the Bz component fluctuating between +/-7 nT. Phi angle was mostly\npositive (away).\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar wind conditions are expected to remain at nominal levels for the\nmajority of day one (19 Dec). Disturbed solar wind conditions are\nanticipated beginning mid to late on day one (19 Dec) and early to\nmidday on day three (21 Dec) as a glancing blow from the 17 Dec CME\nfollowed by the arrival of the 18 Dec CME are expected to impact the\ngeomagnetic field. Solar wind speeds reaching 650-750 km/s are\nestimated with the arrival of the 18 Dec CME.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions\nuntil late on day one to early on day two (19-20 Dec) when the 17 Dec\nCME is expected to impact the geomagnetic field. Unsettled to active\nconditions, with a chance for isolated minor storm periods (G1-Minor)\nare expected through midday on day two. By early to midday on day three\n(21 Dec), the 18 Dec CME is expected to cause active to major storm\n(G2-Moderate) conditions as it impacts the geomagnetic field.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Dec 19 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 19-Dec 21 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 19-Dec 21 2014\n\n Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec 21\n00-03UT 3 4 3 \n03-06UT 2 4 2 \n06-09UT 2 3 2 \n09-12UT 2 3 4 \n12-15UT 2 2 6 (G2)\n15-18UT 2 2 5 (G1)\n18-21UT 2 2 4 \n21-00UT 4 2 4 \n\nRationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storm\nearly on 20 Dec associated with the anticipated arrival of the 17 Dec\nCME. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected\non day three (21 Dec) with the arrival of the 18 Dec CME associated with\nan M6/2n flare." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-19T05:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-21T07:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.18", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-12-19T05:00:06Z\n## Message ID: 20141219-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by SOHO.\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-12-19T00:27Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~885 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-12-19T00:27:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by SOHO.\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-12-19T01:04Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~544 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 14 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -90/-7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2014-12-19T01:04:00-CME-001\n\n \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-12-21T07:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n \n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-12-19T00:27:00-CME-001, 2014-12-19T01:04:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141219_022800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141219_022800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141219_022800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141219_022800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141219_022800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141219_022800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-19T05:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-21T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.70", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2014-12-19T02:26Z \nRadial velocity (km/s):730 \nLongitude (deg):E04 \nLatitude (deg): S09\nHalf-angular width (deg):60 \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:Mark Sidaway: Analysis from limited imagery." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-19T12:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-22T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.88", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Dec 19 1229 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nAn M6.9 flare was released by NOAA AR 2241 and peaked at 21:58 UT on December 18. An associated Type II radio burst was observed by the Palehua station on Hawaii, with an estimated shock speed of 664 km/s. LASCO C3 shows images of a probably associated halo CME after a data gap, first observed at 00:27 UT on December 19. Based on the estimated Type II shock speed, it is estimated that this CME will arrive at Earth around 0h UT on December 22.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-19T16:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-21T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 80.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.12", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2014-12-19T02:26Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1000\nLongitude (deg): E004\nLatitude (deg): S09\nHalf-angular width (deg): \n60\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-19T20:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-21T05:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.37", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-12-19T19:45:45Z\n## Message ID: 20141219-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2014-12-19T00:27:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20141219-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-12-21T00:58Z and 2014-12-21T11:20Z (average arrival 2014-12-21T05:17Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-12-19_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE099/20141219_002700_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE099_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-12-19_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE099/20141219_002700_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE099_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-12-19_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE099/20141219_002700_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE099_Earth_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature for all ensemble members.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-12-19_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE099/Detailed_results_20141219_002700_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE099.txt\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-21T00:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-21T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.88", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at \n21.5Rs boundary:\n20141219T0655\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1105\n\nLongitude (deg): -22\n\nLatitude (deg): -10\n\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n46 \n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-21T16:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-21T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "1.68", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nSimulation done with a combination of 2 CMEs:\n\nModel Inputs:\n2014-12-19T00:27:00-CME-001\n2014-12-20T01:25:00-CME-001 \n\nLink to results:\n\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/7438/1" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-21T08:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.75, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.6, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.77", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-88082.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-21T07:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 90.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-88082.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-12-17T05:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-12-17T05:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-12-21T04:13Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "CME is associated with M8.7 class flare that peaked around 2014-12-17T04:50Z. Shock arrival time verification still pending.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-17T15:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-20T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "85.18", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:\n(Simulation includes an earlier narrow fast CME. Predictions are very preliminary since they were done using only SOHO LASCO data.)\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-12-17T16:47:16Z\n## Message ID: 20141217-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CMEs with ID(s) 2014-12-17T02:00:00-CME-001 and 2014-12-17T05:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20141217-AL-003). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-12-20T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are (event upgraded/downgraded to O-type):\n\n1: Start time of the event: 2014-12-17T02:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1103 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 17 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -34/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-12-17T02:00:00-CME-001\n\n\n2: Start time of the event: 2014-12-17T05:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~603 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 5/-30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2014-12-17T05:00:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-12-17T02:00:00-CME-001, 2014-12-17T05:00:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141217_042800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141217_042800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141217_042800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141217_042800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141217_042800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141217_042800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2014-12-17T02:00:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.1 flare with ID 2014-12-17T01:41:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2014-12-17T01:50Z.\n\nThis CME event (2014-12-17T05:00:00-CME-001) is associated with M8.7 flare with ID 2014-12-17T04:17:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2014-12-17T04:50Z (see notification(s) 20141217-AL-001, 20141217-AL-002).\n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-17T23:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-19T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 5.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-32.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.88", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-12-17T23:16:50Z\n## Message ID: 20141217-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.\n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2014-12-17T02:00:00-CME-001 and 2014-12-17T05:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20141217-AL-004).\n\nBased on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 17 (70%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-12-19T15:02Z and 2014-12-20T03:02Z (average arrival 2014-12-19T20:00Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-12-17_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE098/20141217_050000_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE098_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-12-17_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE098/20141217_050000_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE098_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-12-17_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE098/20141217_050000_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE098_Earth_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature for all ensemble members.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-12-17_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE098/Detailed_results_20141217_050000_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE098.txt\n\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-18T00:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-19T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-39.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.67", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by Yaireska Collado)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction).\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).\n\nNotes:\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Dec 18 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels. Region 2242 (S18W01,\nEkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two M-class events, including an M1 flare\n(R1-Minor) at 17/0110 UTC and an M8/2b flare (R2-Moderate) at 17/0451\nUTC, which was the largest event of the period. The M8 flare had\nassociated Type II (est speed 910 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as\nwell as a 320 sfu Tenflare. The majority of the ejecta from the\nassociated coronal mass ejection (CME) had a southerly trajectory.\nHowever, there is a weak Earthward component and model output suggests\narrival at Earth late on 19 Dec.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity for the next three days (18-20 Dec) is likely to be\nmoderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) as Regions 2241 and 2242 continue to\ngrow in areal coverage as well as maintain complex magnetic structures.\nThere is also a slight chance for an isolated X-class event (R3-Strong)\nduring the forecast period.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative normal\nambient background levels. Solar wind speeds were steady near 400 km/s.\nThe total field remained steady between 4 nT and 6 nT while the Bz\ncomponent fluctuated between plus/minus 6 nT. Phi angle was in a primarily\npositive (away) orientation for most of the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind conditions are expected to remain at normal ambient\nbackground levels for the majority of days one and two (18-19 Dec).\nDisturbed conditions are anticipated beginning late on 19 Dec due to the\narrival of the CME associated with the M8 flare observed earlier today.\n\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled (below\nG1-Minor) for the majority of days one and two (18-19 Dec). Unsettled to\nactive conditions are expected to begin late on 19 Dec, with a chance\nfor isolated minor storm periods (G1-Minor) due to the arrival of the\nCME associated with the M8 flare observed earlier today.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Dec 18 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 18-Dec 20 2014 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 18-Dec 20 2014\n\n Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec 20\n00-03UT 3 2 4 \n03-06UT 2 2 4 \n06-09UT 2 2 3 \n09-12UT 2 2 3 \n12-15UT 2 2 2 \n15-18UT 2 2 2 \n18-21UT 2 2 2 \n21-00UT 2 4 2 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No\nsignificant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-18T02:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-19T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.05", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: hi-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2014-12-17T11:00Z \nRadial velocity (km/s):650 \nLongitude (deg):E08 \nLatitude (deg):S19 \nHalf-angular width (deg):43 \n\nNotes: \nSpace weather advisor:Mark Sidaway\nLimited imagery available for analysis but moderate confidence." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-18T21:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-20T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-13.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.73", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Dec 18 2129 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nBased on new LASCO C3 imagery, the CME associated to the M8.7 flare of December 17 is a halo CME with an estimated velocity of 538 km/s, which yields an estimated arrival time at Earth around 15h UT on December 20. As a result, active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions are possible on December 20 and 21.\n#----------------------------------------------------------------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-12-21T00:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-19T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-32.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "3.77", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at \n21.5Rs boundary:\n20141217T1022\nRadial velocity (km/s): 641\n\nLongitude (deg): 2\n\nLatitude (deg): -20\n\nHalf-angular width (deg):\n47\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-20T00:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-88096.72", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-12-19T20:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 70.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-88096.72", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-11-07T18:08:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-11-07T18:08Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-11-10T01:37Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-11-08T02:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-11-09T19:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.73", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Spitzer, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-11-08T02:53:36Z\n## Message ID: 20141108-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2014-11-07T18:08Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~800 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -26/21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-11-07T18:08:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Spitzer (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Spitzer at 2014-11-10T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-11-09T19:31Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-11-07T18:08:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141107_220200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141107_220200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141107_220200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141107_220200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141107_220200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141107_220200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2014-11-07T18:08:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.6 flare with ID 2014-11-07T17:04:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2014-11-07T17:25Z (see notification(s) 20141107-AL-001, 20141107-AL-002).\n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2014-11-08T09:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-11-10T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.20", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2014-11-07T23:00Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 700\nLongitude (deg): E25\nLatitude (deg): N30\nHalf-angular width (deg): 60\n\nNotes: Estimated arrival time 2014-11-10T05:00Z. Estimated most likely level of geomagnetic activity, G2 (Moderate Storm).\nSpace weather advisor: Tony Gillard" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-11-08T09:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-11-10T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.03", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Nov 08 0935 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe Cactus halo CME alert sent out on November 8 01:49 UT concerns the CME related to the X flare from region 2205 with peak at 17:25 UT, November 7.\nIn SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images it is first clearly visible around 18:08 UT, but the actual onset is missed due to a 30 minute data gap just before. It is a partial halo CME directed to the north-east with angular width of at least 180 degrees. Cactus, however, wrongly included high speed components in the south-western direction and hence reported as full halo. Projected speeds are around 600 km/s. The event is also captured in STEREO A/COR 2 images.\nThe bulk of the mass is expelled in north-eastern direction (off the Sun-Earth line) but a possible glancing blow may be expected late November 10, though the effects are not expected to be strong." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-11-08T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-11-10T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.12", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/).\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Nov 08 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels this period as Region 2205 (N15E25,\nEkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1 flare at 07/1726 UTC. Associated\nwith the X-class flare were Type II (602 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps\nalong with a partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in\nSOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 07/1808 UTC. WSA/ENLIL modeling of the event\nshows a partially Earth-directed component that is expected to impact\nthe geomagnetic field early to midday on 10 November. Other activity\nincluded a C1 flare, also from Region 2205, at 07/2348 UTC with an\nassociated Type II radio sweep (829 km/s). Slight penumbral growth and\nconsolidation was observed in the intermediate and trailing portions of\nRegion 2205. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in\ndecay. New Region 2207 (S08E71, Hax/alpha) rotated around the SE limb\nand was numbered during the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2(Minor-Moderate)) with a\ncontinued chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity over the\nnext three days (08-10 Nov). Region 2205 continues to be the likely\nsource for significant flare activity.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to\nmoderate levels over the next three days (08-10 Nov). There is a slight\nchance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above the S1\n(Minor) solar radiation storm level due to activity associated with\nRegion 2205.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters continued to be enhanced with wind speeds ranging\nfrom 427 km/s to 533 km/s. Total field ranged from 4 nT to 11 nT while\nthe Bz component was between +9 nT and -8 nT. Phi angle remained\nconsistently in a negative (towards) sector during the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced for days\none-two (08-09 Nov) with solar wind speeds in the 400-500 km/s range. \nBy early to midday on day three (10 Nov), a indirect impact from the 07\nNov CME is expected to further enhance the geomagnetic field. WSA/ENLIL\nmodelling of the event estimates solar wind speeds approaching 600-700\nkm/s.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on\ndays one-two (08-09 Nov). The arrival of the CME associated with the X1\nflare on 07 Nov is expected to impact the geomagnetic field early to\nmidday on day three (10 Nov) causing active to major storm conditions\n(G1-G2, Minor to Moderate).\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Nov 08 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 08-Nov 10 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 08-Nov 10 2014\n\n Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10\n00-03UT 2 2 2 \n03-06UT 1 2 3 \n06-09UT 2 3 3 \n09-12UT 2 3 5 (G1)\n12-15UT 2 2 6 (G2)\n15-18UT 2 1 5 (G1)\n18-21UT 2 1 4 \n21-00UT 3 2 4 \n\nRationale: G1 to G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected on\nday three (10 Nov) with the arrival of the 07 Nov CME associated with an\nX1 flare from Region 2205." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-11-08T13:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-11-09T20:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.8, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.87", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Spitzer, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-11-08T13:45:28Z\n## Message ID: 20141108-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2014-11-07T18:08:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20141108-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Spitzer. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Spitzer between about 2014-11-10T11:57Z and 2014-11-10T14:00Z (average arrival 2014-11-10T13:33Z) for 25% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-11-09T13:00Z and 2014-11-10T01:45Z (average arrival 2014-11-09T20:59Z) for 100% of simulations. The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-11-07_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE081/20141107_180800_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE081_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-11-07_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE081/20141107_180800_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE081_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-11-07_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE081/20141107_180800_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE081_Earth_stack.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-11-07_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE081/20141107_180800_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE081_arrival_Spitzer.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-11-07_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE081/20141107_180800_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE081_Spitz_stack.gif\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the links following show histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-11-07_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE081/Detailed_results_20141107_180800_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE081.txt\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-11-10T03:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-89083.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-11-10T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-89083.32", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-11-01T05:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-11-01T05:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-11-03T22:27Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Large filament in SDO ~04:20Z", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-11-02T13:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-11-03T17:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "32.92", "predictionNote" : "Issued 2014 Nov 02 1332 UTC\nProduct documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n\nSIDC URSIGRAM 41102\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Nov 2014, 1311UT\nCOMMENT: The background of the Xray flux is at the B-level. Flaring\nactivity was limited to three C-class flares, originating from Catania\nsunspot group 3 (NOAA AR 2201). The strongest flare was a C7.2 flare,\npeaking at 16:46 UT on November 1. Three CMEs lifting off on November 1\nwere observed in coronagraphic imagery. A first partial halo CME was\nobserved in SOHO/LASCO-C2 and C3 imagery, with first measurements at 5:12\nUT in LASCO-C2 and 5:30 UT in LASCO-C3 data. The CME is associated to the\nfilament eruption at 4:00 UT near Catania sunspot group 2. The CME is\ntravelling mainly in the eastern direction with a projected speed of 687\nkm/s (Cactus estimate). SOHO/LASCO-C2 and C3 detected a second CME with\nfirst measurement at 15:48 UT in LASCO-C2 and at 16:54 in LASCO-C3. This\nCME is either related to a backsided event (no STEREO data available to\nconfirm) or related to the C7.2 flare. The CME is propagating mainly to the\nsouth with a projected speed of about 700 km/s. The third CME was\nobserved in SOHO/LASCO-C2 (first measurement at 19:00 UT) is believed to\nbe backsided and hence is not expected to have any Earth-bound component.\nThere is a chance that a glancing blow of the first CME might arrive at\nEarth, with an estimated arrival time of November 3 at 17:50 UT. Flaring\nactivity at the C-level is expected to continue. The proton flux of the\n10MeV protons increased on November 1 and values observed by ACE reached a\nmaximum of 9 pfu at around 19:20 UT, which is near the event threshold.\nThe proton flux will likely remain enhanced for the next day after which it\nreturns to it's background level. The interplanetary magnetic field\nmagnitude maximum decreased from 10 to 3 nT, with a current value of 6 nT,\nas observed by ACE. The solar wind speed varied between 420 and 540 km/s.\nQuiet to active conditions are expected, with limited chances for minor\nstorm conditions due to CH high speed stream influences within the next 24\nhours and the possible arrival of a glancing blow of the November 1 CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-11-02T23:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-11-03T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.80", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Spitzer, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-11-02T23:39:44Z\n## Message ID: 20141102-AL-003\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nO-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2014-11-01T05:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1800 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -43/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-11-01T05:12:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Spitzer (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Spitzer at 2014-11-03T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-11-03T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2014-11-01T05:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141101_070500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141101_070500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141101_070500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141101_070500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141101_070500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141101_070500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-11-03T12:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-89230.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-11-03T12:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 10.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-89230.48", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-09-10T18:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-09-10T18:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-09-12T15:26Z", "maxKP" : 7.0, "dstMin" : -87, "dstMinTime" : "2014-09-13T00:00Z", "cmeNote" : "Associated with X1.6 flare (2014-09-10T17:21Z)", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-11T01:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-12T11:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.08", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-09-11T01:21:02Z\n## Message ID: 20140911-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2014-09-10T18:18:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20140911-AL-001). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-09-12T11:47Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n\nCME parameters are:\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-09-10T18:18Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1400 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-09-10T18:18:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-09-10T18:18:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140910_200000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140910_200000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140910_200000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140910_200000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140910_200000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140910_200000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2014-09-10T18:18:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.6 flare with ID 2014-09-10T17:21:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2014-09-10T17:45Z (see notification(s) 20140910-AL-001, 20140910-AL-002).\n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "COMESEP", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-11T01:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-13T20:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 13.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 1.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : 55.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "29.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.58", "predictionNote" : "CME geomagnetic storm forecast send by RWC/SIDC - HVAR has issued the following GeomagneticStorm alert with impact risk evaluated as high.\n\nDetails on the above alert can be found hereafter.\n\nBest Regards,\n\nCOMESEP Alert system.\n\n=== COMESEP Alert Identity ===\n2014091115109.hghn4py0kU@cmegeomagneticforecasttool\n\n=== Comesep Alert Info ===\nAlert id: 2014091115109.hghn4py0kU@cmegeomagneticforecasttool\nStatus:normal\nAlertIdAction: new\nEmitter: CME geomagnetic storm forecast send by RWC/SIDC - HVAR\nEmitter HRef: http://www.comesep.eu\nEmitter Version: 1.0\nSubject: The risk level for a CME geomagnetic storm is HIGH following the observation of a CME that erupted at 18:00 on 2014-09-10 UTC. The risk level results from the following forecasted parameters: 1) occurrence probability: POSSIBLE 2) storm level: SEVERE\nSubjectTopic: GeomagneticStorm\n\n=== Comesep Alert Target ===\nTarget: Sun\nReceivedAt: 11-09-2014 01:51\nAtEarliest: 13-09-2014 20:37\nAtStrongest: 15-09-2014 04:22\nAtLatest: 17-09-2014 19:55\n\n=== Comesep Alert Impact 1 ===\nImpactType: Geomagnetic\nSeverity: Severe\nProbability: Possible\nConfidence: 0.3\n\n=== Comesep Alert Details ===\n\n=== Comesep Alert Parent-Child Hierarchy ===\nRoot Alert 1 is SolarFlare produced by solardemon received at 10-09-2014 18:19\nhas id 20140910181901.0M6BfCgKsg.2849@solardemon_flares\nRoot Alert 2 is SolarFlare produced by flaremail received at 10-09-2014 19:29\nhas id 20140910192901.QNFjuiifqm@flaremail\nRoot Alert 3 is CME produced by cactus received at 11-09-2014 01:46\nhas id 201409110146.ZsT6wAcKYBcggr@titus.oma.be\nChild Alert 4 is CME produced by dbm received at 11-09-2014 01:46\nhas id 31313.1410399986@oh.geof.unizg.hr\nParent of child alert 4 is alert 3\nChild Alert 5 is SEP produced by sepforecast received at 11-09-2014 01:47\nhas id 20140910_193001_eecece8acc@SEPForecast.oma.be\nParent of child alert 5 is alert 1\nParent of child alert 5 is alert 2\nParent of child alert 5 is alert 3\nChild Alert 6 is GeomagneticStorm produced by cgft received at 11-09-2014 01:51\nhas id 2014091115109.hghn4py0kU@cmegeomagneticforecasttool (is current alert)\nParent of child alert 6 is alert 3\nParent of child alert 6 is alert 4\nParent of child alert 6 is alert 2\nParent of child alert 6 is alert 1\n\n=== Notify Header ===\nSubscription address: http://subscription\nProducer address: http://producer\nTopic dialect: http://dialect\nTopic name: CME/CGFT/new\n\n== DISCLAIMER ==\nCOMESEP makes no warranties or representations as to its accuracy and COMESEP specifically disclaims any liability\nor responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content on the website, as well as the alerts that are sent out.\nNeither COMESEP nor any other party involved in creating, producing, or delivering information that is used in the COMESEP\nalert system is liable for any direct, incidental, consequential, indirect, or punitive damages arising out of your access to,\nor use of, or inability to use or access, the website and/or the alerts that are sent out.\n\nThis file has been generated on 11-09-2014 01:51 by Comesep dispatcher at www.comesep.eu/alert" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-11T03:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-12T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.05", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/).\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Sep 11 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\n**Amendment**\n\n**Amended to update forecast**\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was high. The largest solar event of the period was an\nX1/2b flare (R3/Strong) at 10/1745 UTC from Region 2158 (N15W00,\nDkc/beta-gamma) with associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps, and a\n10cm radio burst.\n\nThe latest analysis of the WSA Enlil solar wind model indicated the\ncoronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X1 flare is likely to\nhave an Earthward component, has an estimated speed near 1400 km/s, and\nis expected to pass the Earth's magnetosphere mid to late day (universal\ntime) on 12 Sep. This CME follows the 9 Sep CME, mentioned in previous\ndiscussions, that is expected to arrive early on 12 Sep as well.\n\nRegion 2158 appeared to display signs of slight decay and spot\nconsolidation in the trailer portion of the sunspot group. As previously\nstated, Region 2158 had a noticeable separation of the penumbral area,\nseparating into two distinct magnetic polarities, thus losing its delta\nmagnetic configuration. Region 2157 (S14W11, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was\nresponsible for a C2/Sf flare at 10/0524 UTC and showed consolidation in\nits leader and intermediate spots but appeared to maintain its delta\nmagnetic configuration. With the exception of an anticipated coronal\nmass ejection (CME) from the X1/2b flare there were no additional\nEarth-directed CMEs observed in satellite imagery during the reporting\nperiod.\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a\nchance for X-class flares (R3 or greater) for the next three days (11-13\nSep). Regions 2157 and 2158 continue to be the likely source of\nsignificant flare activity due to their size and complex magnetic\nstructure.\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at\ngeosynchronous orbit was still slightly elevated but continued a steady\ndecline. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) levels\nat 11/0240 UTC and continue to rise. The greater than 100 MeV proton\nflux reached the 1 pfu level at 11/0425 UTC.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels\nover the next three days (11-13 Sep). S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms\nare expected on day one (11 Sep) due to effects from the X1 flare\nobserved today, and levels will likely remain elevated into day two (12\nSep). A chance for S1-Minor solar radiation storms exists for day three\n(13 Sep) as CME effects continue, as well as flare potential from\nRegions 2157 and 2158.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters at ACE continued to indicate a nominal solar wind\nregime. Solar wind speeds began the period at 352 km/s, reached a high\nnear 395 km/s. IMF total field values held steady between 3 nT to 9 nT\nthroughout the period, while Bz fluctuated between -7 and +7 nT. Phi\nangle remained in a negative (toward) orientation throughout the\nmajority of the period, however a solar sector boundary change to a\npositive (away) orientation was observed at approximately 10/2140 UTC.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to remain at normal background levels\nfor day one (11 Sep). Early on day two (12 Sep), an enhancement in the\ninterplanetary magnetic field and a simultaneous increase in density,\nspeed, and temperature at the ACE spacecraft are expected in conjunction\nwith the forecast shock arrival of the 09 Sep CME. Further enhancement\nis expected later in the day as CME effects from today's X1/2b flare are\nexpected to begin. Conditions are expected to last into day three (13\nSep) as CME effects linger.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.\n\n.Forecast...\nMostly quiet conditions are anticipated for day one (11 Sep). Early on\nday two (12 Sep), the 09 Sep CME is expected to impact the Earth's\nmagnetosphere and quiet to major storm (G2/Moderate) conditions are\nexpected as a result. Later in the day, the CME from today's X1 flare is\nexpected to arrive, pushing conditions to the severe storm level\n(G3/Strong) by the beginning of day three (13 Sep).\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Sep 11 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\n**Amendment**\n\n**Amended to reflect current forecast**\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (NOAA Scale\nG0).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 11-Sep 13 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 11-Sep 13 2014\n\n Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13\n00-03UT 3 2 7 (G3)\n03-06UT 4 4 6 \n06-09UT 3 6 (G2) 6 \n09-12UT 2 5 (G1) 5 \n12-15UT 1 4 5 \n15-18UT 1 4 4 \n18-21UT 2 3 4 \n21-00UT 2 4 4 \n\nRationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on day\ntwo (12 Sep) with the anticipated arrival of the 09 Sep CME. G3 (Strong)\ngeomagnetic storms are likely by day three (13 Sep) as the CME from\ntoday's R3 radio blackout arrives.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 11-Sep 13 2014\n\n Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13\nS1 or greater 75% 50% 30%\n\nRationale: S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected on\nday one (11 Sep) in response to the R3 (Strong) flare event that\noccurred today at 10/1745 UTC from Region 2158 (N15W00). Solar radiation\nlevels are likely to remain elevated on day two (12 Sep) and a chance\nfor S1 (Minor) levels exists on day three due to potential flare\nactivity from Regions 2157 (S14W11) and 2158.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nRadio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24\nhours. The largest was at Sep 10 2014 1745 UTC\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Sep 11-Sep 13 2014\n\n Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13\nR1-R2 85% 85% 85%\nR3 or greater 40% 40% 40%\n\nRationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected\nthroughout the period with a chance for R3 (Strong) activity due to\nflare potential from Regions 2157 and 2158.\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-11T03:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-12T13:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.47", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-09-11T03:58:56Z\n## Message ID: 20140911-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2014-09-10T18:18:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20140911-AL-002). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars. For 18 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Mars between about 2014-09-14T11:47Z and 2014-09-14T11:47Z (average arrival 2014-09-14T11:47Z) for 5% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-09-12T04:16Z and 2014-09-12T21:39Z (average arrival 2014-09-12T13:39Z) for 100% of simulations. The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-10_ncmes1_sims18_LIHUE079/20140910_181800_ncmes1_sims18_LIHUE079_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-10_ncmes1_sims18_LIHUE079/20140910_181800_ncmes1_sims18_LIHUE079_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-10_ncmes1_sims18_LIHUE079/20140910_181800_ncmes1_sims18_LIHUE079_arrival_Mars.gif\n\n## Notes:\n\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the links following show histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-10_ncmes1_sims18_LIHUE079/Detailed_results_20140910_181800_ncmes1_sims18_LIHUE079.txt\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-11T08:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-13T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.93", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2014-09-10 23:05\nRadial velocity (km/s): 793\nLongitude (deg): 2\nLatitude (deg): 21\nHalf-angular width (deg): 53\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-11T09:40Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-12T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.77", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "SAO Crowdsource", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-11T20:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-12T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.02", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-12T10:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-12T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "4.47", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2014-09-10T20:16Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1343\nLongitude (deg): 2W\nLatitude (deg): 15N\nHalf-angular width (deg): 45\n\nNotes: This is a late entry. Model run on 00.00Z 11/09/2014. 20% risk Kp7, 70% Kp5 or KP6\nSpace weather advisor: Mark Gibbs" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-12T20:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 85.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-90485.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-12T14:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.93", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-90485.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-09-09T00:16:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-09-09T00:16Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-09-11T22:56Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : -31, "dstMinTime" : "2014-09-13T03:00Z", "cmeNote" : "Associated with M4.6 flare (2014-09-08T23:12Z).", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "SAO Crowdsource", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-09T11:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-11T20:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.7, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 57.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.10", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-09T12:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-12T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.35", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Sep 09 0739 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe partial halo CME that was first observed by SOHO/LASCO and Cactus on 9 September at 00:06UT is associated to the M4.5 flare that took place in NOAA 2158. This Long Duration Event (LDE) started at 23:12UT, reached maximum x-ray flux at 00:29UT, and ended at 01:31UT. SDO/AIA-imagery indicate post-flare coronal loops, coronal dimming and an EIT-wave (as detected by Solar Demon). A type II radio-burst was observed by the Learmonth Radio Observatory, from which a shock speed of 999 km/s was deduced. \nThe CME seems very wide (300 degrees or more), and the plane-of-the-sky speed around 710 km/s. The bulk of the CME seems to be directed away from the Earth (to the northeast). However, in view of the currently observed CME features, there's still a good chance Earth will receive a glancing blow from it. Estimated impact time is 12 September at 01:00UT, with an uncertainty of 12 hours. A minor geomagnetic storm is possible. CME features, arrival time and geomagnetic impact will be fine-tuned as STEREO- and more SOHO/LASCO-imagery will become available. \n\n\n:Issued: 2014 Sep 09 1235 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40909\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Sep 2014, 1209UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 09 Sep 2014 until 11 Sep 2014)\nSOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 09 Sep 2014 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 010\nPREDICTIONS FOR 10 Sep 2014 10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 11 Sep 2014 10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 013\nCOMMENT: There are currently 8 sunspot groups visible. NOAA 2157 seems to\nbe slightly declining and simplifying. NOAA 2158 developed some small spots\nto the west and south of the main spot. Except for the northern part, this\nmain spot is now completely surrounded by opposite magnetic polarity flux.\nBoth NOAA 2157 and 2158 retained their delta structures. Two C-class\nflares and 1 M-class flare were recorded. The strongest event was a long\nduration M4.5 flare peaking at 00:29UT and originating in NOAA 2158. SDO\n/AIA-imagery indicated post-flare coronal loops, coronal dimming and an\nEIT-wave. A type II radio-burst with an associated shock speed of 999 km/s\nwas observed. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, currently still enhanced\nat 2 pfu, has not increased in response to this flare (so far). The M4.5\nflare was associated to a halo CME first observed by SOHO/LASCO on 9\nSeptember at 00:06UT, with a plane-of-the-sky speed around 560 km/s . The\nbulk of the CME is directed away from the Earth (to the northeast), but\nthere's still a good chance Earth will be impacted by the CME-driven shock.\nEstimated impact time is 12 September at 03:00UT, with an uncertainty of 12\nhours. There remains a reasonable chance on an M-class flare. The\nwarning condition for a proton event remains in effect. Solar wind\nspeed was mostly between 350 and 450 km/s, with Bz oscillating between +5\nand -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Quiet to unsettled\ngeomagnetic conditions are expected for the next three days, possibly\nmodulated by the high speed stream from a coronal hole that passed the\ncentral meridian on 5 September. On 10 September, there's a chance on\nunsettled conditions with an isolated active period in response to the\npossible glancing blow from the 6 September CME. On 12 September, the\nimpact of the halo CME related to the M4.5 flare from 9 September may\nresult in active conditions and possibly a brief period of minor\ngeomagnetic storming.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 126, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 08 Sep 2014\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 156\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 164\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010\nAK WINGST : 006\nESTIMATED AP : 005\nESTIMATED ISN : 110, BASED ON 29 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \n08 2312 0029 0131 N12E29 M4.5 1N 48/2158 CTM/1 \nEND\n\nBT" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-09T13:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-11T16:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.23", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.92", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Spitzer, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-09-09T13:01:37Z\n## Message ID: 20140909-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2014-09-09T00:16Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~780 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -30/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-09-09T00:16:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars (glancing blow) and Spitzer (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Mars at 2014-09-13T10:00Z and Spitzer at 2014-09-12T06:00Z (plus or minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth with at least a glancing blow. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-09-11T16:42Z (plus or minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2014-09-09T00:16:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140909_041600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140909_041600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140909_041600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140909_041600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140909_041600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140909_041600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2014-09-09T00:16:00-CME-001) is associated with M4.6 flare with ID 2014-09-08T23:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2014-09-09T00:28Z. Please note that only data from SOHO LASCO was available for this analysis; the lack of corresponding STEREO coronagraph images limits the accuracy of the measurements of direction and speed of the CME. \n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-09T17:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-11T23:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.55", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/).\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Sep 10 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at moderate levels due to the long-duration M4/1n\nflare at 09/0029 UTC from Region 2158 (N15E14, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta).\nThis M4/1n flare had associated Type II (999 km/s estimated shock\nvelocity) and Type IV radio sweeps, a 10cm (370 sfu) radio burst, and an\nasymmetrical, full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) which was first\nobserved in LASCO/C2 imagery at 09/0006 UTC. As previously reported, the\nmajority of the ejecta appeared to be heading north and east of the\nSun/Earth line, however, after detailed analysis forecasters have\ndetermined this event to contain an Earth-directed component. A NOAA\nScale G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued for 12\nSeptember with an estimated shock arrival time early in the day.\nResidual CME effects warrant a NOAA Scale G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm\nWatch for 13 September. Regions 2158 and 2157 (S14E03,\nEkc/beta-gamma-delta) continue to be the regions of interest as they are\nthe largest and most magnetically complex on the visible solar disk.\nRegion 2158 continued to consolidate in the spots just south of the\nlarge leader. Region 2157 was responsible for a C3/1n flare at 09/1226\nUTC and showed signs of growth in its intermediate spots. There were no\nadditional CMEs observed in satellite imagery during the reporting\nperiod.\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)with a\nchance for X-class flares (R3 or greater) for the next three days (10-12\nSep). Regions 2157 and 2158 continue to be the likely source of\nsignificant flare activity.\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous\norbit was still slightly elevated but continued a steady decline. The\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux reached a high of 3.8 pfu at 09/0110\nUTC.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to\nmoderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days\n(10-12 Sep). A chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm remains\nfor the next three days (10-12 Sep) due to the increasingly favorable\nlocations of Regions 2157 and 2158.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of a nominal solar wind\nregime. Solar wind speeds began the period near 450 km/s and reported\nperiod-ending speeds in the 375 km/s range. IMF total field values\nremained steady between 2 nT to 5 nT throughout the period, while Bz\nfluctuated between +/-4 nT. Phi angle remained in a negative (toward)\norientation for the majority of the period with slight variability into\naway (positive) solar sector orientation after 09/1600 UTC.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced on day\none (10 Sep) as coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence\nbegins. A solar sector boundary change from a negative (towards) to a\npositive (away) solar sector is necessary before observing impacts from\nthis feature. Day two (11 Sep), conditions should return to near\nbackground levels as CH HSS effects subside. Day three (12 Sep), should\nsee the arrival of the 09 Sep CME, early in the day, when an enhancement\nin the interplanetary magnetic field and a simultaneous increase in\ndensity, speed, and temperature are expected at the ACE spacecraft in\nconjunction with the forecasted shock arrival.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet with two isolated periods of unsettled\nconditions between 09/0000-0300 UTC as well as 09/2100-09/2400 UTC.\n \n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on\nday one (10 Sep) due to weak, positive-polarity CH HSS influence. A\nreturn to mostly quiet conditions is anticipated for day two (11 Sep) as\nCH HSS effects wane. Early on day three (12 Sep), the 09 Sep CME\nmentioned above is expected to impact the Earth's magnetosphere. Quiet\nto major storm (G2/Moderate) conditions are expected as a result.\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Sep 10 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 10-Sep 12 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 10-Sep 12 2014\n\n Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12\n00-03UT 2 2 2 \n03-06UT 3 1 4 \n06-09UT 2 1 6 (G2)\n09-12UT 2 1 5 (G1)\n12-15UT 2 1 4 \n15-18UT 1 1 4 \n18-21UT 2 2 3 \n21-00UT 3 2 4 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on\ndays one and two (10-11 Sep). G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms\nare expected on day three (12 Sep) due to effects from the 09 Sep CME.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 10-Sep 12 2014\n\n Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12\nS1 or greater 30% 30% 30%\n\nRationale: A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists due to\npotential flare activity from Regions 2157 (S14E03) and 2158 (N15E14) as\nwell as already enhanced background conditions.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nRadio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24\nhours. The largest was at Sep 09 2014 0030 UTC\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Sep 10-Sep 12 2014\n\n Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12\nR1-R2 75% 75% 75%\nR3 or greater 30% 30% 30%\n\nRationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected with a\nchance for R3 (Strong) activity due to flare potential from Regions 2157\nand 2158.\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-09T18:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-11T19:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.8, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.7, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.23", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, Spitzer, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-09-09T18:42:50Z\n## Message ID: 20140909-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2014-09-09T00:16:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20140909-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Spitzer and Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Spitzer between about 2014-09-12T01:25Z and 2014-09-12T15:39Z (average arrival 2014-09-12T07:06Z) for 16% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2014-09-13T06:41Z and 2014-09-13T23:04Z (average arrival 2014-09-13T14:23Z) for 33% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-09-11T07:39Z and 2014-09-12T08:08Z (average arrival 2014-09-11T19:29Z) for 100% of simulations. The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-7 (below minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-09_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE078/20140909_001600_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE078_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-09_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE078/20140909_001600_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE078_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-09_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE078/20140909_001600_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE078_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-09_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE078/20140909_001600_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE078_arrival_Spitzer.gif\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the links following show histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-09_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE078/Detailed_results_20140909_001600_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE078.txt\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-11T21:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 78.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-90502.00", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-11T20:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 78.5, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-90502.00", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-09-02T16:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-09-02T16:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-09-06T04:33Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : -26, "dstMinTime" : "2014-09-07T03:00Z", "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-03T02:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-06T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.55", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2014-09-02 23:06\nRadial velocity (km/s): 743\nLongitude (deg): -21\nLatitude (deg): 44\nHalf-angular width (deg): 42\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-03T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-06T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.05", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below).\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Sep 03 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period,\na C4 flare at 03/0253 UTC, appeared to originate from a region just\nbeyond the southeastern limb. Region 2152 (S15W19, Eac/beta-gamma) also\nproduced a few low level C-class flares during the period. This region\ncontinued to grow, primarily in its intermediate spot area, and show\nsigns of separation between the leader and trailer spots. Region 2153\n(S10W45, Dao/beta) exhibited signs of decay during the period. Region\n2154 (S19E29, Cao/beta) continued to show signs of growth, though that\ngrowth rate slowed near the end of the period.\n\nSDO AIA/304 imagery captured a 44 degree long filament, centered near\nN32W14, erupting between 02/1300-1600 UTC. The eruption was also evident\nin ground-based H-alpha imagery from the GONG facilities. Initial\nanalysis indicated there is an Earth-directed component of the coronal\nmass ejection (CME), set to arrive early to midday on 6 Sep, just\noutside this forecast period. Further analysis will be conducted on this\nCME and adjustments to the forecast will be made accordingly.\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance for\nM-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days\n(03-05 Sep). Regions in the north and south, just beyond the east\nlimb, have been very active as they approach the visible disk. These\nregions, as well as Region 2152, will be monitored closely as they\nrepresent the greatest threat for the next few days.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels,\nreaching a peak flux value of 6110 pfu at 02/1620 UTC. The greater\nthan 10 MeV and 100 MeV proton flux values were elevated in response to\nyesterday's back-side event, but remained below alert thresholds.\nProtons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level\nof 3 pfu at 03/0845Z, while 100 MeV protons reached a max of .7 pfu at\n02/2210 UTC.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high\nlevels for the next three days (03-05 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux is expected to remain enhanced, but below alert threshold\nlevels (S1-Minor) for the next three days (03-05 Sep) in the absence of\nanother significant flare.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft remained fairly\nconsistent throughout the period. Wind speed averaged near 420 km/s\nrange, Phi remained positive, and Bt held steady near 6 nT. Bz ranged\nbetween +/-5 nT, but was predominantly negative during the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next\nthree days (03-05 Sep). Solar wind speeds are likely to see steadily\ndecreasing values as the high speed stream influence continues to wane.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated\nminor storm levels observed at high latitudes.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels\n(Below G1-Minor) through midday on day one (03 Sep). Quiet to unsettled\nconditions are expected, with a chance for Active levels for days two\nand three (04-05 Sep), as high speed solar wind stream influences\npersist.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Sep 05 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 05-Sep 07 2014 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 05-Sep 07 2014\n\n Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07\n00-03UT 3 3 4 \n03-06UT 2 3 3 \n06-09UT 2 3 3 \n09-12UT 2 3 2 \n12-15UT 3 3 2 \n15-18UT 3 3 3 \n18-21UT 3 4 3 \n21-00UT 3 4 3 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No\nsignificant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 05-Sep 07 2014\n\n Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07\nS1 or greater 5% 5% 5%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Sep 05-Sep 07 2014\n\n Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07\nR1-R2 55% 55% 55%\nR3 or greater 10% 10% 10%\n\nRationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely with a\nslight chance for R3 (Major) for the next three days due to potential\nflare activity from Regions 2152 (S15W38), 2157 (S13E68) and 2158\n(N16E83).\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-09-03T19:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-05T08:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.9, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 15.2, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.02", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\n\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter a copy of the entire notification here:\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-09-03T19:32:40Z\n## Message ID: 20140903-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2014-09-02T17:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20140903-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 36 ensemble members (see notes section), 36 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-09-04T23:53Z and 2014-09-06T00:13Z (average arrival 2014-09-05T08:52Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-6 (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-03_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE077/20140902_170000_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE077_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-03_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE077/20140902_170000_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE077_arrival_Earth.gif\n\n## Notes:\nDue to the poor imagery available the CME parameters are very approximate, which is reflected on the wide spread of the ensemble results. \n\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the links following show histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-03_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE077/Detailed_results_20140902_170000_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE077.txt\n###\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-05T23:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-90640.38", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-09-06T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-90640.38", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-08-22T06:28:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-08-22T06:28Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-08-27T00:00Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : -76, "dstMinTime" : "2014-08-27T18:00Z", "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-08-22T18:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-25T23:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.98", "leadTimeInHrs" : "101.25", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-08-22T18:45:29Z\n## Message ID: 20140822-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nS-type CME detected by SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2014-08-22T11:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~444 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 50 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-08-22T11:24:00-CME-001\n\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-08-25T23:01Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-08-22T11:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140822_193000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140822_193000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140822_193000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140822_193000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140822_193000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140822_193000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-08-22T23:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-25T23:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.8, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.6, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "96.30", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-08-22T23:42:51Z\n## Message ID: 20140822-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2014-08-22T11:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20140822-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-08-25T18:06Z and 2014-08-26T04:30Z (average arrival 2014-08-25T23:54Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-6 (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-08-22_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE076/20140822_112400_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE076_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-08-22_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE076/20140822_112400_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE076_arrival_Earth.gif\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the links following show histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-08-22_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE076/Detailed_results_20140822_112400_ncmes1_sims24_LIHUE076.txt \n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-08-23T09:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-25T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-39.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "86.03", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:2014-08-22T16:59Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 587\nLongitude (deg): 12\nLatitude (deg): 9\nHalf-angular width (deg): 44\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-08-23T10:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-27T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "85.45", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Aug 23 1033 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo CME was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 data from August 22 11:24 UT onwards. It is associated with the C2 flare peaking at 10:27 UT from NOAA AR 2146, and with type II and IV radio bursts. Despite the location of the source region near the central meridian, the bulk of the mass was expelled in western direction from the sun earth line. The angular width was however underestimated by CACTUS, which due to the weaker additional north-eastern and south-eastern components is almost full halo. The projected speed is around 400 km/s. \nIt was followed by a second partial halo CME first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 images at 16:36 UT associated to the C6 flare peaking at 15:52 from the same region (NOAA AR 2146) and associated type II radio emission. The appearance of the second CME is roughly comparable with the first CME. A dominant westward component with an additional north-eastern component, but now lacking the south-eastern component.\nUnfortunately STEREO A coronagraph data are absent for both events, and there are no clear signatures in the available STEREO B coronagraph data.\nA glancing blow from the combination of both CME's may be expected around UT midnight August 26/27.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-08-23T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-26T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "83.50", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Aug 23 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels this period. Region 2149 (N10E57,\nEai/beta) produced a C6/1n flare at 22/1257 UTC and Region 2146 (N10W14,\nCso/beta) produced a C6/Sn flare at 22/1552 UTC, which were the largest\nevents of the period.\n\nRegions 2146 and 2149 exhibited a moderate decay trend this period and\ndecreased in both size and magnetic complexity. Region 2143 (S07W60,\nDai/beta) exhibited minor growth this period while the other regions on\nthe visible disk were relatively stable.\n\nTwo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with activity from Region\n2146 were observed off the west limb this period. The first CME was\nobserved in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 22/1124 UTC\nand was associated with a C2/Sf flare at 22/1027 UTC. The second CME\nwas observed in C2 imagery beginning at 22/1636 UTC and was associated\nwith the C6/Sn flare at 22/1552 UTC. These CMEs are expected to merge\nen route to Earth and arrival as one event.\n\nSubsequent analysis of these events and WSA-ENLIL model output suggest a\nlikely CME arrival midday on 26 Aug. See the 24/0030 UTC forecast\ndiscussion for anticipated impacts.\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2\n(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (23-25 Aug).\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels\nthroughout the period, reaching a maximum flux value of 289 pfu at\n22/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background\nlevels.\n \n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal\nto moderate levels for the next three days (23-25 Aug). The greater\nthan 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for\nthe next three days (23-25 Aug).\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of a continued nominal\nsolar wind environment. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from\ninitial values near 360 km/s to end-of-period values near 310 km/s. IMF\ntotal field values were steady between 2-6 nT. The Bz component was\npredominately northward early in the period but briefly deviated\nsouthward late in the period, reaching a maximum southward component of\n-4 nT. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away) sector\nthroughout the period.\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to remain at near-background levels\nfor the next three days (23-25 Aug) under a continued nominal solar wind\nregime.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet due to a nominal solar wind environment.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for the next\nthree days (23-25 Aug).\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Aug 24 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 24-Aug 26 2014 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 24-Aug 26 2014\n\n Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26\n00-03UT 1 2 2 \n03-06UT 1 1 2 \n06-09UT 1 1 2 \n09-12UT 1 1 1 \n12-15UT 1 1 3 \n15-18UT 1 1 4 \n18-21UT 2 2 4 \n21-00UT 2 2 4 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. \n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 24-Aug 26 2014\n\n Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Aug 24-Aug 26 2014\n\n Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26\nR1-R2 30% 30% 30%\nR3 or greater 5% 5% 5%\n\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast.\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-26T03:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.02", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-90884.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-25T23:54Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 100.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-90884.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-08-15T21:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-08-15T21:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-08-19T05:58Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "This CME is associated with a filament eruption taking place at central meridian starting ~2014-08-15T17:00", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-08-16T01:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-19T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.68", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\n\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\n\nAmbient settings: a5b1\n\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\n\n\nCME input parameters\n\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: \n2014-08-16T01:39Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 412\n\nLongitude (deg): 1\n\nLatitude (deg): 16\n\nHalf-angular width (deg): 48\n\n\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-08-16T03:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-18T08:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "74.10", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-08-16T03:52:39Z\n## Message ID: 20140816-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / STEREO B / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2014-08-15T21:12Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~676 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 5/12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-08-15T21:12:00-CME-001\n\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-08-18T08:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-08-15T21:12:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140816_013600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140816_013600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140816_013600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140816_013600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140816_013600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140816_013600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-08-16T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-19T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.47", "predictionNote" : "Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Aug 16 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels. Multiple C-class activity was observed\nfrom Regions 2139 (N14E09, Eac/beta-gamma) and 2144 (S17W42,\nDai/beta-gamma), the largest a C2/Sf at 16/0929 UTC from Region 2144.\nRegion 2139 showed some intermediate spot consolidation while Region\n2144 continued its rapid growth forming mature trailer spot penumbra.\nBoth of these regions, as well as Region 2141 (N15E40, Dac/beta-gamma),\nexhibited increased magnetic complexity over the past 24 hours. New\nregion 2146 (N10E79, Hax/alpha) rotated onto the disk.\n\nNSO/GONG and SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery observed major portions of a\nfilament erupt along a 30 degree long channel between 15/1630-1715 UTC.\nThe N/S oriented filament was centered near S06W02 with a majority of\nthe eruption north of this center point. SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed\nmaterial movement to the NNE and SW across the solar disk as a result of\nthe eruption. A slow-moving, partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME)\nwas observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 imagery at 15/1800 UTC and 15/1906\nUTC respectively. CME analysis and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output\nsuggested an Earth impact late on 18 August. However, further analysis\nand adjustments for a slower ambient wind speed is expected to indicate\na later Earth impact closer to midday on the 19th.\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class\n(R1-Minor) activity, for the next three days (16-18 Aug).\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly\nreached moderate levels again while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux\nat geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (16-18 Aug).\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto remain at background levels (below S1-Minor) throughout the forecast\nperiod.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters, as measured by ACE, were indicative of background\nconditions. Solar wind indicated a gradual decline from initial speeds\nof 365 km/s to end-of-period speeds approaching 275 km/s. The total\nfield (Bt) ranged between 1 to 4 nT while the Bz component did not drop\nlower than -4 nT. The phi angle began the period for a brief time in a\nmostly negative (towards) orientation before rotating to a predominately\npositive (away) orientation at 15/1354 UTC and remained positive for the\nbalance the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nNominal levels are expected for a majority of the forecast period (16-18\nAug). However, further analysis of the 15 Aug CME and subsequent\nrefinements to the WSA-Enlil model output could see wind enhancements\nbeginning late on 18 August.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods at a few\nstations early in the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels\nfor a majority of the forecast period (16-18 Aug). Unsettled to isolated\nactive conditions could be present late on 18 August depending on the 15\nAug CME arrival time.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Aug 17 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 17-Aug 19 2014 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 17-Aug 19 2014\n\n Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19\n00-03UT 2 2 2 \n03-06UT 2 2 2 \n06-09UT 1 1 1 \n09-12UT 1 1 1 \n12-15UT 1 1 1 \n15-18UT 1 1 3 \n18-21UT 1 1 4 \n21-00UT 2 2 4 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No\nsignificant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Aug 19 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 19-Aug 21 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 19-Aug 21 2014\n\n Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21\n00-03UT 2 4 3 \n03-06UT 2 5 (G1) 2 \n06-09UT 1 3 2 \n09-12UT 1 3 2 \n12-15UT 1 2 2 \n15-18UT 3 2 2 \n18-21UT 4 3 2 \n21-00UT 4 4 2 \n\nRationale: Day one (19 Aug) should see the arrival of the 15 Aug CME mid\nto late in the day, bringing in a chance for an isolated geomagnetic\nstorm (G1-minor) early on day two (20 Aug). A G1 Watch was\nissued for the 20th. Conditions are expected to return to below G1-minor\nstorm conditions for day three (21 Aug) as CME effects wane." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-08-16T13:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-19T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.63", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Aug 16 1320 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40816\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Aug 2014, 1308UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Aug 2014 until 18 Aug 2014)\nSOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 16 Aug 2014 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 006\nPREDICTIONS FOR 17 Aug 2014 10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 18 Aug 2014 10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 007\nCOMMENT: Four C flares were registered during the past 24 hours. The\nbrightest one was a C1.5 flare released by NOAA AR 2139 with peak time\n21:54 UT on August 15. In the next 48 hours, eruptive conditions (C\nflaring) are expected, with a slight chance for M flares (30%), especially\nfrom beta-gamma regions NOAA AR 2144 and 2139. A large filament eruption\ntook place near the central meridian around 16:54 UT on August 15, and an\nassociated partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 starting around 18:00\nUT. Preliminary analysis suggests an arrival time at Earth in the second\nhalf of August 19. Over the past 24 hours, solar wind speed as observed by\nACE decreased from about 360 to 280 km/s, while the magnitude of the\nInterplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 2 and 4 nT. Over the\npast 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and\n3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-08-17T15:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-18T07:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.3, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 11.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-22.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.93", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-08-17T15:02:43Z\n## Message ID: 20140817-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2014-08-15T21:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20140816-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 36 (75%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-08-17T20:18Z and 2014-08-18T18:52Z (average arrival 2014-08-18T07:36Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-8 (below minor to severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-08-16_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE075/20140815_211205_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE075_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-08-16_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE075/20140815_211205_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE075_arrival_Earth.gif\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the links following show histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-08-16_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE075/Detailed_results_20140815_211205_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE075.txt\n###\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-18T23:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-91070.97", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-08-19T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 75.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-91070.97", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-06-25T12:54:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-06-25T12:54Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-06-29T18:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "Source region seen in AIA 193. Large filament like eruption stretching from disk center towards NE limb starting around 2014-06-25T08:45Z [-DK] CME arrival could be 2014-06-29T18:00Z or it could be the arrival of the later CME which started at the Sun around 2014-06-26T01:25Z.", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-06-26T14:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-28T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.75", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nSimulation and input parameters: \nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/5873/1" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-28T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-92282.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-28T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : 20.0, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-92282.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-06-19T19:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-06-19T19:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-06-23T22:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-06-20T00:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-22T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "93.70", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, MESSENGER, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-06-20T00:18:16Z\n## Message ID: 20140620-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \n\nStart time of the event: 2014-06-19T19:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~530 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 47 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -19/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-06-19T19:24:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars and MESSENGER. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2014-06-24T07:57Z and MESSENGER at 2014-06-20T23:13Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-06-22T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-5 (below minor to minor).\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-06-19T19:24:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140619_235700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140619_235700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140619_235700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140619_235700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140619_235700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140619_235700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-06-20T01:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-22T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "92.63", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/).\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).\n--\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Jun 21 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 21-Jun 23 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 21-Jun 23 2014\n\n Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun 23\n00-03UT 2 3 4 \n03-06UT 1 2 3 \n06-09UT 1 1 3 \n09-12UT 1 2 3 \n12-15UT 1 2 3 \n15-18UT 1 5 (G1) 2 \n18-21UT 2 4 2 \n21-00UT 2 4 3 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on 22\nJune with the anticipated arrival of the 19 June coronal mass ejection\n(CME).\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 21-Jun 23 2014\n\n Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun 23\nS1 or greater 5% 1% 1%\n\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Jun 21-Jun 23 2014\n\n Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun 23\nR1-R2 45% 35% 25%\nR3 or greater 5% 5% 5%\n\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast.\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-06-20T08:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-24T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "85.47", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Jun 20 0832 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo CME was detected by SOHO/LASCO on June 19, first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view at 19:24 UT (first frame after a long data gap). The CME had the angular width of around 190 degrees and projected plane-of-the-sky speed of around 400 km/s. The CME was produced by the eruption of a filament to the north of the Catania sunspot groups 89 and 90 (together constituting the NOAA AR 2093), starting around 14:25 UT as seen by SDO/AIA. The eruption was also accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-erution arcade. It was followed by a perhaps related C4.0 flare peaking at 19:24 UT in the Catania sunspot group 90. This flare was, in turn, accompanied by a narrow CME first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view at 19:48 UT. This narrow CME is not expected to arrive at the Earth. An interplanetary disturbance associated with the partial halo CME is expected to arrive at the Earth late on June 23 or early on June 24, most probably only with a glancing blow. It may!\n result in active to perhaps minor storm geomagnetic conditions. The partial halo CME was a far side event from the perspective of Venus, so it will not arrive at Venus. \n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)", "submissionTime" : "2014-06-20T15:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-22T07:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-39.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.00", "predictionNote" : "Met Office ENLIL settings.\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)\nAmbient settings: a3b2-sa1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nPlease specify following CME input parameters.\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2014-06-20T03:24Z \nRadial velocity (km/s): 880\nLongitude (deg): 024E\nLatitude (deg): 01S\nHalf-angular width (deg): 72\n\n\nNotes: Initial run, based on SOHO Lasco C3 only. This impacts longitude estimate. Error bars based on typical ENLIL errors.\nSpace weather advisor: Michael Lawrence" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Rice-ENLIL Dst", "submissionTime" : "2014-06-20T21:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-22T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 2.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 0.7, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 1.0, "predictedDstMin" : -18, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2014-06-23T02:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-25.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "72.37", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-06-20T22:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-22T16:12Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 5.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.6, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.02", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (MESSENGER, Mars, missions near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-06-20T22:59:20Z\n## Message ID: 20140620-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2014-06-19T19:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20140620-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact MESSENGER and Mars. For 12 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- MESSENGER between about 2014-06-20T20:25Z and 2014-06-21T02:39Z (average arrival 2014-06-20T23:12Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2014-06-23T18:03Z and 2014-06-24T05:28Z (average arrival 2014-06-24T00:58Z) for 83% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-06-22T10:46Z and 2014-06-22T23:46Z (average arrival 2014-06-22T16:12Z) for 100% of simulations. The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-7 (below minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-06-20_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE065/20140619_192400_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE065_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-06-20_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE065/20140619_192400_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE065_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-06-20_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE065/20140619_192400_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE065_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-06-20_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE065/20140619_192400_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE065_arrival_Mess.gif\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the links following show histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-06-20_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE065/Detailed_results_20140619_192400_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE065.txt\n\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-06-21T02:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-23T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-22.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.00", "predictionNote" : "KSWC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7e\nResolution: low (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a5b1\nWSA version: 2.2\n\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2014-06-20T02:09Z\nRadial velocity (km/s): 417\nLongitude (deg): 16\nLatitude (deg): -24\nHalf-angular width (deg): 51\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-22T21:18Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.9, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.75, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-92422.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-22T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-92422.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-06-12T22:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-06-12T22:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-06-17T05:40Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-06-13T13:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-15T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-47.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "88.67", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Jun 13 1300 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe complex and long duration M3.1 flare (peaking at 22:16 UT) on June 12 was associated with an EIT wave, type II radio burst (estimated shock wave speed is about 1700 km/s) and a partial halo CME. The CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 22:12 UT, had the angular width of 200 degrees and the projected plane of the sky speed of 600 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The bulk of the CME mass was ejected south-west from the Sun-Earth line. The arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave is possible but not very probable in the evening of June 15.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-06-13T18:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-16T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-23.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "82.92", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nA slight probability of glancing blow to Earth predicted. Link to CME analysis and simulation results:\nhttps://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/5774/1" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-15T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-92583.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-15T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-35.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-92583.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-06-04T13:25:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-06-04T13:25Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-06-07T16:09Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-06-05T18:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-08T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.85", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.88", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n\nPlease enter the full notification:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-06-05T20:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-07T20:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.82, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 8.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.78", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.98", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (MESSENGER, Spitzer, Mars, missions near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-06-05T20:10:03Z\n## Message ID: 20140605-AL-002\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2014-06-04T13:25:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20140605-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact MESSENGER, Spitzer, and Mars. For 36 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- MESSENGER between about 2014-06-05T18:18Z and 2014-06-06T04:54Z (average arrival 2014-06-05T23:02Z) for 91% of simulations.\n- Spitzer between about 2014-06-07T13:55Z and 2014-06-07T18:52Z (average arrival 2014-06-07T16:23Z) for 19% of simulations (glancing blow).\n- Mars between about 2014-06-09T00:32Z and 2014-06-09T13:34Z (average arrival 2014-06-09T07:13Z) for 75% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth with a possible glancing blow between about 2014-06-07T12:50Z and 2014-06-08T03:45Z (average arrival 2014-06-07T20:56Z) for 61% of simulations. The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-6 (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-06-05_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE063/20140604_132500_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE063_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-06-05_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE063/20140604_132500_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE063_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-06-05_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE063/20140604_132500_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE063_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-06-05_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE063/20140604_132500_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE063_arrival_Mess.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-06-05_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE063/20140604_132500_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE063_arrival_Spitzer.gif\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the links following show histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-06-05_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE063/Detailed_results_20140604_132500_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE063.txt\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-07T22:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-92812.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-06-07T22:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "6.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-92812.78", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-04-18T13:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-04-18T13:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-04-20T10:22Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : -26, "dstMinTime" : "2014-04-21T04:00Z", "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-04-18T19:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-20T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.98", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/).\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Apr 19 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high (R2) levels. Region 2036 (S16W41,\nDhc/beta-gamma) produced an M7 flare at 18/1303 UTC, which was the\nlargest flare of the period. It was accompanied by a Tenflare (1000\nsfu), a Castelli-U signature, as well as Type II (851 km/s) and Type IV\nradio emissions. An asymmetric halo CME was subsequently observed in\nSOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 18/1325 UTC. Analysis suggested the\nejecta was moving at approximately 1000 km/s and Earth-directed. Region\n2036 began to show signs of decay but remains significant and\nmagnetically complex.\n\nRegion 2034 (N04W39, Ekc/beta) grew during the period and so did Region\n2035 (S15W18, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Region 2035 also became more\ncomplex, developing a delta configuration. A new spot group is being\nmonitored near S17E71 and will be numbered if it persists and flux\nemergence was noted north of Region 2038 (S13E23, Dac/Beta). The\nremaining spot groups were either stable or decaying.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-Minor) for the next three\ndays (19-21 Apr) with the number of complex regions present.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal levels for the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at\ngeosynchronous orbit began to rise following the M7 flare\ndescribed above, crossing the 10 pfu threshold (S1-Minor radiation\nstorm) at 18/1525 UTC and reaching a maximum of 42 pfu at 18/2355 UTC.\nThe 100 MeV proton flux was also enhanced but remained below the 1 pfu\nalert threshold.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at normal levels for the next three days (19-21 Apr). The\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit expected to\nremain above the 10 pfu threshold (S1-Minor) into day 1 (19 Apr). S1\nevents remain likely on day 2 (20 Apr) with a continued chance on day 3\n(21 Apr), particularly with the passage of the approaching CMEs.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind speed began near 400 km/s and increased to 537 km/s by\n18/1851 UTC. Phi was generally positive through the day. Bt rose past 10\nnT by 18/2000 UTC and Bz was as low as -8 nT at 18/0243 UTC but mostly\nneutral or positive throughout the period. These observations were\nconsistent with the presence of a small positive coronal hole high speed\nstream.\n\n.Forecast...\nIncreased Bt and possible southward Bz are expected on day 1 (19 Apr)\nwith the anticipated arrival of the two faint/slow CMEs from 15/16 Apr,\nbelieved to be on the Sun-Earth line. Early on day 2 (20 Apr), the\narrival of a CME from 16 Apr is expected to begin with a modest increase\nin speed and density at onset, as well as a magnetic response. The CME\nfrom 18 Apr is expected to arrive midday on day 2 (20 Apr), prolonging\nthe disturbed conditions through day 3 (21 Apr).\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nWSA-Enlil model output and manual prognosis suggest the back-to-back\narrivals of the CMEs from the 16th and 18th on day 2 (20 Apr) of the\nforecast. Consequently, the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to\nunsettled on day 1 (19 Apr) with the passage of two weak CMEs from 15\nand 16 Apr embedded in the ambient solar wind. Early on day 2 (20 Apr)\nthe arrival of another CME from 16 Apr is expected to bring active to\nminor (G1) storm conditions before being reinforced by the midday\narrival of the CME from 18 Apr. The second impact will prolong minor\nstorm conditions and introduce a chance for major (G2) storm levels. \nMinor (G1) storm conditions are expected to persist into the early hours\nof day 3 (21 Apr) before diminishing to active or unsettled levels.\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Apr 19 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 19-Apr 21 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 19-Apr 21 2014\n\n Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21\n00-03UT 2 3 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 2 5 (G1) 4 \n06-09UT 2 4 3 \n09-12UT 2 3 3 \n12-15UT 2 2 2 \n15-18UT 2 5 (G1) 2 \n18-21UT 4 4 3 \n21-00UT 4 4 4 \n\nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 20-21 Apr due\nto the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from 16 Apr and 18 Apr.\n\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was\nabove S-scale storm level thresholds.\n\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 19-Apr 21 2014\n\n Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21\nS1 or greater 99% 75% 50%\n\nRationale: The in-progress S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm is expected\nto persist above the S1 threshold through 20 Apr with a chance of\ncrossing the S1 threshold on 21 Apr.\n\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\n\nRadio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24\nhours. The largest was at Apr 18 2014 1303 UTC\n\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Apr 19-Apr 21 2014\n\n Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21\nR1-R2 60% 60% 60%\nR3 or greater 10% 10% 10%\n\nRationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely for 19-21\nApr due to active region complexity.\n\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-04-18T20:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-21T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "25.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.33", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Apr 18 2002 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe M7.3 flare peaking at 13:03 UT today was accompanied by a full halo CME first appearing in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 13:25 UT. The plane-of-the-sky projected speed of the CME was around 900 km/s. The bulk of the CME mass was going to the south-west, so we expect only a glancing blow when the corresponding ICME arrives at the Earth on April 21, resulting in a geomagnetic storm with K index most probably up to 6. The halo CME also produced a proton event at energies above 10 MeV. \n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-04-18T21:06Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-20T05:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.03, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.13, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.27", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-04-18T20:11:38Z\n## Message ID: 20140418-AL-005\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.\n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2014-04-18T13:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20140418-AL-004).\n\nBased on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars. For 36 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Mars between about 2014-04-21T06:36Z and 2014-04-22T04:07Z (average arrival 2014-04-21T14:19Z) for 100% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-04-20T01:05Z and 2014-04-20T11:15Z (average arrival 2014-04-20T05:07Z) for 100% of simulations. The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-8 (below minor to severe).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-04-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE062/20140418_130900_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE062_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-04-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE062/20140418_130900_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE062_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-04-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE062/20140418_130900_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE062_arrival_Mars.gif\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the links following show histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-04-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE062/Detailed_results_20140418_130900_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE062.txt\n\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-04-18T21:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-20T09:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-1.22", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.75", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Mars, Missions Near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-04-18T17:02:43Z\n## Message ID: 20140418-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2014-04-18T13:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20140418-AL-003). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2014-04-21T23:06Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-04-20T09:09Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\n \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-04-18T13:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1400 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-04-18T13:09:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-04-18T13:09:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140418_152200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140418_152200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140418_152200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140418_152200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140418_152200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140418_152200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\nThis CME event (2014-04-18T13:09:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.3 flare with ID 2014-04-18T12:31:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2014-04-18T13:03Z (see notification(s) 20140418-AL-001) and SEP at GOES13 with ID 2014-04-18T15:25:00-SEP-001 (see notification(s) 20140418-AL-002).\n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-20T15:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.25, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-93970.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-20T11:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-93970.57", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-04-02T13:55:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-04-02T13:55Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-04-05T09:40Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-04-02T22:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-04T09:21Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.22", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update [Mars| Spitzer| Missions Near Earth]\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-04-02T22:27:01Z\n## Message ID: 20140402-AL-004\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nUpdate on CME with ID 2014-04-02T13:55:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20140402-AL-003). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars and Spitzer. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2014-04-05T20:34Z and Spitzer at 2014-04-04T03:21Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-04-04T09:21Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).\n\nPlease note that the CME parameters are still very preliminary due to the lack of available imagery. Updates on this event will be provided when more images become available. \n\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-04-02T13:55Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~1604 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 68 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -50/19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-04-02T13:55:00-CME-001\n\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-04-02T13:55:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes: \n\nThis CME event (2014-04-02T13:55:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.5 flare with ID 2014-04-02T13:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2014-04-02T14:05Z (see notification(s) 20140402-AL-001) and SEP at STEREO B with ID 2014-04-02T15:55:00-SEP-001 (see notification(s) 20140402-AL-002).\n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-04-03T03:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-04T19:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.3, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.32", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) [Mars| Spitzer| Missions Near Earth]\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-04-03T03:21:30Z\n## Message ID: 20140403-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2014-04-02T13:55:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20140402-AL-004). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Spitzer and Mars. For 16 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Spitzer between about 2014-04-04T01:21Z and 2014-04-04T10:27Z (average arrival 2014-04-04T07:05Z) for 100% of simulations.\n- Mars between about 2014-04-05T23:13Z and 2014-04-06T07:12Z (average arrival 2014-04-06T01:53Z) for 18% of simulations.\n\nAdditionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-04-04T08:56Z and 2014-04-05T01:20Z (average arrival 2014-04-04T19:01Z) for 87% of simulations. The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-7 (below minor to strong).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-04-02_ncmes1_sims16_LIHUE061/20140402_135500_ncmes1_sims16_LIHUE061_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-04-02_ncmes1_sims16_LIHUE061/20140402_135500_ncmes1_sims16_LIHUE061_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-04-02_ncmes1_sims16_LIHUE061/20140402_135500_ncmes1_sims16_LIHUE061_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-04-02_ncmes1_sims16_LIHUE061/20140402_135500_ncmes1_sims16_LIHUE061_arrival_Spitzer.gif\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the links following show histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event, please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-04-02_ncmes1_sims16_LIHUE061/Detailed_results_20140402_135500_ncmes1_sims16_LIHUE061.txt \n\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone", "submissionTime" : "2014-04-03T07:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-05T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "50.22", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\n\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2014-04-02 16:23\nRadial velocity (km/s): 1357\nLongitude (deg): -43\nLatitude (deg): 22\nHalf-angular width (deg): 48\n\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-04-03T12:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-05T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 9.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.28", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Apr 03 1223 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40403\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Apr 2014, 1204UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 03 Apr 2014 until 05 Apr 2014)\nSOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 03 Apr 2014 10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 005\nPREDICTIONS FOR 04 Apr 2014 10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 05 Apr 2014 10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 023\nCOMMENT: Solar activity was dominated by an M6.5 flare from NOAA AR 2027\npeaking at 14:05 UT, April 2. It was associated with a filament eruption\nand type II radio bursts. The corresponding full halo CME was first\nvisible in LASCO C2 at 13:36 UT. Measured projected speeds by CACTus vary\nbetween 500 km/s and over 1500 km/s. The bulk of the mass was expelled in\nnorth east direction. Given the location of the source region and the\ndirection of the ejecta the impact on earth will probably be limited. We\ncan expect at least the impact of the CME driven shock but also a weak\nimpact of the CME itself is probable. Arrival is likely to be around\nmidnight April 4 to 5. Solar wind speed decreased rather steadily from\njust above 400 km/s to now just above 360 km/s. The total magnetic field\nwas stable in the 4 to 6 nT range. No signatures of the anticipated arrival\nof the CMEs of March 28, 29, and 30 have been observed. Geomagnetic\nconditions were at quiet levels (both local K and planetary Kp <=2) over\nthe last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet in\nthe next 36 hours. Afterwards, the arrival of the April 1 and April 2 CMEs\nmay cause unsettled to active conditions and possibly minor storms. Also\nthe low latitude coronal hole that passed the central meridian late April\n1, early April 2 may become geoeffective by midnight April 4 to 5.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 097, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 02 Apr 2014\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 125\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 155\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010\nAK WINGST : 005\nESTIMATED AP : 005\nESTIMATED ISN : 084, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \n02 1318 1405 1428 N14E53 M6.5 2B 3700 09/2027 II/1IV/2 \nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n\n\n:Issued: 2014 Apr 02 1801 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe M6.5 flare peaking at 14:05 UT originated from NOAA AR 2017, and was associated with type II radio bursts observed by the Humain station. The corresponding CME appears as a full halo CME from the viewpoint of STEREO A spacecraft. It becomes visible in STEREO B COR2 at 13:55 UT, and in STEREO A COR2 at 13:54 UT. Unfortunately the STEREO B COR2 data suffer a data gap right after the onset. In the latest LASCO C2 data it appears at 13:36 UT and also appears to develop as a full halo CME from the Sun-Earth line viewpoint.\nArrival of the CME can be expected as early as April 3 after 15:00 UT.\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2014-04-03T22:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-05T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -158, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2014-04-05T13:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "0.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "35.08", "predictionNote" : "ENLIL/Rice version of SET prediction now as stream A." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-05T00:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-94331.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-05T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-94331.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-04-01T17:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-04-01T17:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-04-05T09:40Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-04-02T10:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-05T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "71.05", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Apr 02 1037 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA faint halo CME was visible in LASCO COR 2 images from April 1, 16:48 UT onwards. The bulk of the CME was expelled in eastern direction and directed slightly south. CACTus software only detected multiple fragments of the event. \nThe event can be related to a filament eruption located to the south-east of NOAA AR 2021. The projected speed as estimated from Stereo B COR2 is about 300 km/s. Hence, the arrival of the perturbation can be expected around late April 4 and early April 6, probably only causing merely unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. \n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-04-02T15:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-05T04:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.67", "predictionNote" : "Attached please find a text file with an experimental \nInterplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection estimate at 1 AU \nproduced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center \nat NASA/GSFC.\n\nThe estimate is based on heliospheric MHD simulations \nusing the WSA/ENLIL cone model combination.\n\nThe estimate is performed solely for research purposes \nwith no attached warranties, direct or implied.\n\n\nCCMC team.\n\n\n\n\nExperimental ICME estimate at 1AU \nbased on heliospheric MHD simulations.\nProduced by the Community Coordinated \nModeling Center at NASA/GSFC\nfor the Air Force Weather Agency.\nFor more information please contact:\nAleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov\n******************************************************\nEstimate issued on 2014/04/02, 10:59:25 EST\n******************************************************\n\nArrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-04-05T04:50Z\n(confidence level +-7 hours)\n\nDuration of the disturbance (hr) = 26.1\n(confidence level +-8 hours)\n\nMinimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.9\n(under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10;\nR_geosynchr(Re)=6.6)\n\nKp index for three possible IMF clock angles\n(angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp):\n(Kp)_90=3\n(Kp)_135=5\n(Kp)_180=5\n\n\n************************************************************\n\nHere are the links to the movies of the modeled event\n\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-pdyn.gif\n\n\nInner Planets\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\nTimelines\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\n\n******************************************************\nMessenger\n******************************************************\n\nCME did not hit the Messenger.\nor\nCME impact is very weak.\n\n******************************************************\n\nMars\n******************************************************\n\nArrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-04-07T13:37Z\n\n\n\nStereo A\n******************************************************\n\nCME did not hit the StereoA.\nor\nCME impact is very weak.\n\n******************************************************\n\nStereo B\n******************************************************\nCME did not hit the StereoB.\nor\nCME impact is very weak.\n\n******************************************************\n\nSpitzer\n******************************************************\nCME did not hit the Spitzer.\nor\nCME impact is very weak.\n\n******************************************************" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-04-03T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-05T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.17", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below).\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Apr 02 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was low. Frequent low-level C-class flares occurred, most\nof which were from Region 2026 (S11E44, Dai/beta-gamma). Minor spot and\npenumbra development was noted in Region 2026 along with a mix of\npolarities in the leading half of the region. A filament, centered near\nN02E20, erupted from the northeast quadrant at around 01/1439 UTC and\nwas associated with an Earth-directed, asymmetric full-halo coronal mass\nejection (CME). The CME was first visible in LASCO images at around\n01/1648 UTC and had a speed of around 858 km/s.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be low during the period (02-04 Apr) with\na chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate).\n\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous\norbit was at background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at normal levels during the period (02-04 Apr). The greater than\n10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at\nbackground levels during the period.\n\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind was slightly enhanced. However, no evident CME signatures\nwere observed from the expected arrival of the first of a series of CMEs\nthat occurred between 28 and 30 Mar. Solar wind speed ranged from 362 to\n502 km/s. Total field was relatively steady between 4 nT and 7 nT, while\nthe Bz component was variable at +/- 5 nT. Phi data indicated a\npositive-polarity (away) solar sector during the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nNo significant changes are expected in the solar wind flow until around\nmidday on 04 Apr. A CME is expected to arrive around midday on 04 Apr\nwith enhancements in wind speed, density, and total field expected\nduring the remainder of 04 Apr.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nGeomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels\nuntil around midday on 04 Apr. Field activity is expected to increase to\nunsettled to active levels (below G1-Minor) during the latter half of 04\nApr due to a CME passage from the 01 Apr filament eruption mentioned\nabove.\n--\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Apr 02 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 02-Apr 04 2014 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 02-Apr 04 2014\n\n Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr 04\n00-03UT 1 3 2 \n03-06UT 1 2 1 \n06-09UT 1 2 1 \n09-12UT 1 2 3 \n12-15UT 1 2 3 \n15-18UT 1 2 4 \n18-21UT 1 2 4 \n21-00UT 2 2 4 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No\nsignificant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Apr 03 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n...\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-2 (03-04\nApr). By early on day 3 (05 Apr), the 01 Apr CME associated with a\nfilament eruption is expected to impact the geomagnetic field causing\nquiet to active conditions with a slight chance for minor (G1-Minor)\nstorm conditions.\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Apr 03 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 03-Apr 05 2014 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 03-Apr 05 2014\n\n Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05\n00-03UT 2 2 2 \n03-06UT 2 1 4 \n06-09UT 1 1 4 \n09-12UT 1 1 3 \n12-15UT 1 1 3 \n15-18UT 1 1 3 \n18-21UT 2 2 3 \n21-00UT 1 2 3 \n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Apr 03 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nGeomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during 03\n-04 Apr with a slight chance for unsettled levels. Activity is expected\nto increase to unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels, with a slight\nchance for major storm levels (G2-Moderate), beginning early on 05 April\ndue to the arrival of the CME from the filament eruption on 01 April.\n\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Apr 03 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 03-Apr 05 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 03-Apr 05 2014\n\n Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05\n00-03UT 1 2 2 \n03-06UT 2 1 4 \n06-09UT 1 1 5 (G1)\n09-12UT 2 1 4 \n12-15UT 2 1 3 \n15-18UT 1 1 3 \n18-21UT 1 2 3 \n21-00UT 1 2 3" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-05T06:36Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-3.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-94331.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-04-05T04:50Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-94331.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-03-23T04:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-03-23T04:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-03-25T19:25Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-03-23T20:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-03-25T18:31Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.87", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Spitzer and missions near Earth)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-03-23T20:33:00Z\n## Message ID: 20140323-AL-001\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n\n## Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO B / STEREO A / SOHO.\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-03-23T04:09Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~700 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -35/4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-03-23T04:09:00-CME-001\n\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO B / STEREO A.\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-03-23T06:54Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~568 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -44/36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\n\nActivity ID: 2014-03-23T06:54:00-CME-001\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Spitzer and Mars. The leading edge of these CMEs will reach Spitzer at 2014-03-26T03:17Z (plus minus 7 hours) Mars at 2014-03-27T13:14Z (plus minus 7 hours).\n\nThe simulation also indicates that the first CME (starting at 2014-03-23T04:09:00Z) may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of this CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-03-25T18:31Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-03-23T04:09:00-CME-001, 2014-03-23T06:54:00-CME-001):\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140323_084000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140323_084000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140323_084000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140323_084000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140323_084000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140323_084000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)\n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-03-24T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-03-26T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.92", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from excerpted Forecast Discussion below)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Mar 24 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels. Region 2014 (S14E20, Dsc/beta-gamma)\nproduced a long-duration C5/Sf flare at 23/0348 UTC which was the\nlargest event of the period. Regions 2010 (S15W13,\nDac/beta-gamma-delta), 2014 (S14E20, Dsc/beta-gamma), and 2017 (N09E45,\nDai/beta-gamma) all exhibited moderate growth this period and join\nRegion 2015 (S14W42, Cao/beta-delta) in being the most magnetically\ncomplex regions on the visible disk. The other regions on the disk were\nunremarkable. A coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with the\nlong-duration C5 flare mentioned above, was observed in SOHO LASCO C2\nimagery beginning at 23/0500 UTC. Subsequent analysis indicates a\nglancing-blow CME arrival late day two (25 Mar)/early day three (26\nMar). See the 'Geospace Forecast' section below for further details.\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2\n(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (24 - 26 Mar).\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels\nand the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at\nbackground levels for the next three days (24 - 26 Mar).\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were indicative of continued weak influence of a\npositive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind\nspeeds were steady in the 435-575 km/s range. Total field strength\nvalues ranged from 3 nT - 8 nT while the Bz component ranged from +6 nT\nto -4 nT. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away) sector\nthroughout the period.\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced (450-550 km/s) for the\nnext three days (24 - 26 Mar) due to a combination of CH HSS influence\nearly in the period and CME effects mid to late in the period.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day\none (24 Mar) due to CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are\nexpected on day two (25 Mar) due to a combination of CH HSS influence\nand arrival of the 23 Mar CME late in the day. The WSA-ENLIL model\noutput shows a glancing-blow CME arrival midday on 26 Mar, but due to\nobserved solar wind speed values being higher than indicated on the\nmodel output, we're expecting the CME to arrive late day two (25\nMar)/early day three (26 Mar).\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Mar 24 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 24-Mar 26 2014 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 24-Mar 26 2014\n\n Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26\n00-03UT 3 2 3 \n03-06UT 4 3 4 \n06-09UT 3 2 3 \n09-12UT 2 2 2 \n12-15UT 2 2 2 \n15-18UT 2 1 1 \n18-21UT 2 2 1 \n21-00UT 2 3 2 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. \nActive (Below G1-Minor) levels are expected on day 1 (Mar 24) due to\ncoronal hole high speed stream activity and on day 3 (Mar 26) due to\ncontinued coronal hole activity coupled with a glancing blow from the 23\nMar CME.\n..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-03-24T12:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-03-26T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.50", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Mar 24 1255 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n....\nCOMMENT: Several C-class flares in past 24h. The strongest one was a C4.5\nflare from AR 2014 peaking at 00:10 UT. AR 2010, 2014 and 2015 have\npotential for M-class flares. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet, solar wind\nspeed is around 400 km/s with IMF values lower than 5 nT. The conditions\nmay reach active and minor storm levels when/if the CME of March 23 arrives\nto the Earth, expected early on March 26.\n....\n\n:Issued: 2014 Mar 25 1335 UTC\n...\n\nCOMMENT: Solar activity has been dominated by minor C-class flares from\nNOAA ARs 2010 and 2014. These two ARs, and AR 2015, have potential for\nM-class flares. A rise in the GOES proton levels (10 MeV up to 1 pfu) was\nseen this morning, this could correspond with the approaching shock of the\nCME from March 23 (low energy protons and electrons on ACE show an increase\nat the same time). It could also be related with activity seen at 05:30 UT\naround NOAA AR 2015, a flare accompanied by dimmings. There is no LASCO\ndata yet but the COR instruments on STEREO show a CME directed towards the\nwest. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet, solar wind speed around 400 km/s,\nIMF around 5 nT. Conditions may reach minor storm levels with the arrival\nof the March 23 CME, expected for early March 26 (midnight)..\n..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-03-25T22:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.75", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-94585.52", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-03-26T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-94585.52", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-02-25T01:25:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-02-25T01:25Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-02-27T16:10Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Expansion Speed Prediction Model", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-25T20:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-26T12:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-27.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.70", "predictionNote" : "On Feb 25, 2014, at 3:28 PM, Alisson Dal Lago wrote:\n\nDear Leila,\n\nMy forecast for the CME is below:\n\nPredicted Shock Arrival Time: 2014-02-26T12:15Z\nMethod: Expansion Speed Prediction Model\n\nInput parameter: CME expansion speed Vexp= 3410 km/s\n\nIf possible, I would like to have my prediction included.\n\nBest regards,\n\nA. Dal Lago" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-25T23:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-26T22:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.27, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 20.72, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.12", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) \n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-25T23:03:00Z\n## Message ID: 20140225-AL-007\n## \n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n##Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.\n\nUpdate on notification 20140225-AL-006. Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Spitzer, STEREO B and may have glancing blow at MESSENGER and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:\n\n- Spitzer between about 2014-02-26T08:21Z and 2014-02-27T04:33 (average arrival 2014-02-26T14:54) for 100% of simulations. \n- STEREO B between about 2014-02-26T16:25Z and 2014-02-27T18:15Z (average arrival 2014-02-27T01:44Z) for 50% of simulations.\n- MESSENGER between about 2014-02-25T19:06Z and 2014-02-26T05:36Z (average arrival 2014-02-25T23:18Z) for 13% of simulations (glancing blow).\n- Mars between about 2014-02-28T05:44Z and 2014-02-28T21:23Z (average arrival 2014-02-28T13:48Z) for 8% of simulations (glancing blow).\n\nAdditionally the CME flank is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-02-26T10:59Z and 2014-02-27T18:58Z (average arrival 2014-02-26T22:15Z) for 83% of simulations. The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-6 (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks for the ensemble details of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057_arrival_Spitzer.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057_arrival_STB.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057_arrival_Mess.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057_arrival_Mars.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057_arrival_Earth.gif\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the following links are histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-24_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057/Detailed_results_20140225_012500_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE057.txt\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-26T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-26T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.67", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from excerpted Forecast Discussion below)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Feb 25 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was high. An X4/2b x-ray flare occurred at 25/0049 UTC \nfrom newly numbered Region 1990 (S13E69, Hsx/alpha). There were also \nassociated Type II (est. shock speed 1972 km/s) and Type IV radio\nsweeps, as well as a fast-moving, asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection\n(CME) that was first seen in Lasco C3 imagery at 25/0130 UTC. This CME\nappeared to be mostly directed east and south away from the Sun-Earth\nline. Region 1990 also produced an M1 flare at 24/1205 UTC with an\nassociated narrow, non-Earth-directed CME. Region 1990 appeared to be\nthe return of old active Region 1967 (S13, L=114). Regions 1986 (N14E01,\nCro/beta) and 1989 (N08E45, Dao/beta) both produced a couple low-level\nC-class flares, yet showed no significant changes during the day. Region\n1982 (S10W29, Ekc/beta-gamma) had slight growth in the leader spots, but\nwas fairly inactive during the period. The remaining regions were either\nstable or showed signs of decay. An Enlil run will be accomplished on\nthe CME associated with the X4/2b flare as data becomes available, but\nrough initial analysis indicates the Earth may see a weak glancing blow\nlate on Feb 26 from this CME.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.Forecast...\nWind speed is expected to decrease on Feb 25 as the CH HSS wanes.\nNominal solar wind conditions are expected during the beginning of Feb\n26, with a slight increase near the end as CME effects from the 25 Feb\nglancing blow CME begin. Feb 27 should see slightly elevated wind speed\nas a recurrent, negative-polarity CH HSS becomes geo-effective and weak\nCME effects persist.\n\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on\nFeb 25 as weak CH HSS effects subside. Activity is expected to decrease\nto quiet levels for the first part of Feb 26, then see a possible\nincrease to unsettled levels following the potential arrival of a weak,\nglancing blow CME near the end of the period. Quiet to unsettled levels\nare expected to persist on Feb 27 as CME effects mix with effects from\nanother CH HSS.\n--\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Feb 26 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was high. Region 1990 (S12E64, Hsx/alpha) produced an\nX4/2b flare at 25/0049 UTC accompanied by a Type II radio sweep\n(estimated shock velocity 1972 km/s), a Type IV radio sweep, a 3700 sfu\nTenflare, a loop prominence system, and a coronal mass ejection (CME).\nRegion 1990 was still fairly close to the east limb, which hindered\nanalysis somewhat; but there appeared to be opposite-polarity spots\nwithin the penumbra of the large leader spot, indicative of strong\nmagnetic shear and gradients. The CME associated with the X4/2b flare\nhad a mostly-eastward trajectory (estimated speed 1342 km/s), with a\nminor Earthward component. Abutted Regions 1981 (S08W48, Eai/beta) and\n1982 (S10W36, Esc/beta-gamma) produced an isolated optical subflare and\neach appeared to be in a gradual decay phase. Region 1986 (N14W05,\nCro/beta) showed no significant changes, yet managed to produce two\nmid-level C-class flares, the largest of which was a C5/1n at 25/1510\nUTC. Region 1989 (N08E38, Cao/beta) showed minor spot development during\nthe day and produced a C5/Sf flare at 25/0432 UTC. There were no other\nEarth-directed CMEs detected during the period.\n \n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be moderate through the period (Feb 26 -\n28), with a chance for an additional X-class flare from Region 1990.\n\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1 - Minor) occurred\nat geosynchronous orbit in the wake of the X4/2b flare. The event began\nat 25/1355 UTC and flux levels gradually increased through the period,\nwith a peak reading of 23 pfu at 25/2020 UTC. The event continued at the\ntime of this discussion. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux at\ngeosynchronous orbit was enhanced following today's X4/2b flare, but did\nnot quite reach the 1 pfu event level (peak 0.9 pfu at 25/1945 UTC).\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at normal to moderate levels during the period (Feb 26 - 28) with\na chance for high levels on Feb 28. The greater than 10 MeV proton event\n(S1 - Minor) at geosynchronous orbit is expected to persist into Feb 26\nand is expected to decay below event (S1) levels during the latter half\nof the day. Proton flux levels are expected to decrease to background\nlevels by late on Feb 27, barring further proton flare activity from\nRegion 1990. There is a chance the greater than 100 MeV proton flux at\ngeosynchronous orbit will reach the 1 pfu event threshold during the\nfirst half of Feb 26, then is expected to gradually decay.\n\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nACE data indicated a return to nominal solar wind conditions during the\nperiod. Wind speed gradually decreased from a high of 489 km/s at\n25/0159 UTC to a low of 355 km/s late in the period. IMF Bt was fairly\nsteady in the 1 to 3 nT range. IMF Bz was variable in the +/- 3 nT\nrange, with mostly northward values until approximately 25/0800 UTC. IMF\nPhi data indicated a negative-polarity (toward) solar-sector orientation\nuntil approximately 25/0700 UTC, then shifted to a positive-polarity\norientation for the remainder of the day.\n\n.Forecast...\nsolar wind speed is expected to be nominal until late on Feb 26. The \nCME from today's X4/2b flare is expected to arrive late on Feb 26 with\nattendant increases in wind speed, IMF Bt, and IMF Bz variability. A\nnegative-polarity CH HSS is expected to commence during Feb 27. Enlil\nCME- and ambient-based model runs predict wind speed as high as 600 km/s\nwith these two disturbances.\n\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels during\nFeb 26 - 28, due to a combination of CME and coronal hole high-speed\nstream effects (CH HSS). The CME from the X4/2b flare is expected to\nreach Earth at around 26/2200 UTC. The CH HSS is expected to commence on\nFeb 27. There is also a slight chance for minor storm conditions (G1 -\nMinor) on Feb 28.\n\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Feb 26 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 26-Feb 28 2014 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 26-Feb 28 2014\n\n Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb 28\n00-03UT 2 3 3 \n03-06UT 2 4 4 \n06-09UT 2 3 3 \n09-12UT 2 3 3 \n12-15UT 2 2 3 \n15-18UT 2 2 3 \n18-21UT 2 1 2 \n21-00UT 4 3 2 \n\nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No\nsignificant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-26T13:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-27T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.85", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Feb 25 1446 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe X4.9 flare of Feb 25 00:49 produced rising proton flux levels and a CME.\nThe proton flux levels will cross the 10 pfu threshold for >10 MeV particles in the coming\nminutes. Meanwhile, incoming data revealed that the CME expanded to a full halo CME with\na propagation speeds above 1500 km/s. Culgoora Observatory observed type II radio bursts\nwith speeds of 2000 km/s and 700 km/s. As a consequence, we expect disturbed geomagnetic \nconditions but it remains hard to predict timing and magnitude as the CME has only a minor component\nin the direction of the Earth.\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n:Issued: 2014 Feb 26 1319 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n...\nCOMMENT: Solar activity has calmed down since the X-class firework of\nyesterday. Flaring activity in the past 24 hours has been at the C5 level\nin active regions NOAA1986-Cat48 and NOAA1989-Cat50. For the first region,\nthe activity corresponds to a (recurrently) activating filament which we\nexpect to erupt at some stage. Major (M or X class flaring) flaring\npotential remains in various active regions, in particular NOAA1982-46,\nNOAA1987-Cat54 and NOAA1990-Cat52. The CME associated with the X4.9 flare\nof Feb 25 00:49 expanded to a full halo CME. Propagation speeds above 1500\nkm/s were measured. Culgoora Observatory observed type II radio bursts\nwith speeds of 2000 km/s and 700 km/s. As this CME was not completely\nEarth-directed, we expect that only a glancing blow of the shock will\narrive at the Earth, early Feb 27. Soon thereafter (Feb 28 late onwards) we\nalso expect the influence of the fast wind stream from a small coronal hole\nthat crossed central meridian mid Feb 24. As a consequence, we expect\nepisodes of active geomagnetic conditions from early Feb 27 onwards for\nabout 48 hours.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 141, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.\n\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 25 Feb 2014\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 174\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010\nAK WINGST : 003\nESTIMATED AP : 004\nESTIMATED ISN : 125, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.\n\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\n\nBT\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-26T20:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-20.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-95212.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-26T22:07Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.05", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-95212.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-02-19T16:00:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-02-19T16:00Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-02-23T06:00Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-20T01:14Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-22T11:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.77", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-20T01:14:00Z\n## Message ID: 20140220-AL-001\n##\n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n##Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2 / SOHO LASCO C3.\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-02-19T16:00Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~800 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -1/-37 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-02-19T16:00:00-CME-001.\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the northern edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2014-02-22T11:26Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (minor to moderate).\n\nAdditionally, modeling indicates possible impacts at MESSENGER and Mars. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach MESSENGER at 2014-02-20T14:36Z (plus or minus 7 hours) and Mars at 2014-02-24T17:00Z (plus or minus 7 hours).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event are below.\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140219_201800_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140219_201800_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140219_201800_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140219_201800_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140219_201800_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140219_201800_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-20T09:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-23T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "68.38", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Feb 20 0937 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nTwo full halo CMEs occurred. The first one at 16:00 UT on February 19, related to a filament eruption close to central meridian. The bulk of the material is heading south, but a glancing blow at the Earth can be expected on February 23 around 01:00 UT (using the CACTus speed of 461 km/s). The second one was related to a C3.3 flare from NOAA AR 1982. This CME will most likely arrive to the Earth. Arrival time expected for February 22 around 03:00 UT, using the CACTus speed of 1045 km/s. Due to its high speed, the second CME will likely interact on its way with the previous one. \n\n10 MeV protons have passed the threshold of 10 protons/cm2-s-sr. The 50 and 100 MeV fluxes seem to have reached a peak at 3 and 0.7 protons/cm2-s-sr respectively and are for the moment descending (this may change).\n\nThere is confirmation from STEREO that the M3.0 flare was accompanied by a CME, it seems to be directed towards the west, more information will be given as the data becomes available (no LASCO data yet).\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-20T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-23T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.50", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from excerpted Forecast Discussion below)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Feb 20 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached moderate levels due to an M3/Sn flare from Region\n1976 (S15W76, Cao/beta) at 20/0756 UTC. The flare was associated with\nType II (est. shock speed 844 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as well as\na 280 sfu 10 cm radio burst. This region had been in the decay stages\nfor the past few days, but garnered enough energy to produce the M-class\nflare just before reaching the west limb. Region 1982 (S12E39,\nDki/beta-gamma) produced several low-level C-class flares and showed\ngradual spot and penumbra development in its intermediate portion. It\nmaintained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and remained the most\nmagnetically complex region on the disk. Minor spot development and weak\nseparation between the leader and trailer spots was noted in the\nintermediate portion of Region 1981 (S07E27, Dai/beta). Gradual decay\nwas noted in Region 1985 (N08W53, Cso/beta). New Region 1986 ((N13E62,\nHsx/alpha) was numbered during the period, but was stable and inactive\nthroughout.\n\nA 12-degree filament, centered near S34E02, erupted during 19/1434 -\n1555 UTC; associated with a southward, non-Earth-directed coronal mass\nejection (CME). An additional filament was seen departing the northern\nportion of the solar disk during approximately 20/0129 - 0744 UTC. All\nindications show this CME is directed too far north to have impacts at\nEarth. A fast moving coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the M3\nflare was first seen in Lasco C2 imagery at 20/0800 UTC. An Enlil run\nwill be submitted to determine potential speed and impacts to Earth, but\ninitial indications point to an approximate arrival time at Earth late\non Feb 22.\n\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be at low levels for the period (Feb\n20 - 22), with a chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)).\n\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous\norbit exceeded the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) alert threshold, reaching a peak of\n22 pfu at 20/0925 UTC. The M3 flare referenced above appeared to be the\nsource for this proton flux enhancement.\n\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nACE data began the period with enhanced levels due to the earlier\narrival of a CME, likely associated with a faint full-halo CME on Feb\n16. Conditions then stabilized for several hours until approximately\n20/0301 UTC when a shock was observed at ACE, sending IMF Bt to 9 nT and\nBz to -9 nT. Winds also increased from 461 km/s to 660 km/s with\ntemperature and density seeing increases as well. Since the shock\narrival, wind speeds have been observed as high as 734 km/s, IMF Bt has\nremained between 10 nT and 15 nT, and the Bz component has mostly been\nnegative with occasional periods in the positive sector.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind conditions are expected to gradually recover from this latest\nCME during the latter half of Feb 20. Another CME passage is forecast to\nbegin late on Feb 20 (from the halo CME observed on Feb 18). Wind speed\nis expected to be above 500 km/s with this CME passage (based on the\nlatest Enlil model output), along with increased IMF Bt and IMF Bz\nvariability. CME effects are expected to persist during Feb 21, then\npossibly see another enhancement during Feb 22 from yet another CME.\nThis one from the M3/Sn flare that occurred today. Analysis is ongoing\nto determine exact timing of the arrival of a couple of CMEs observed\ntoday and adjustments will be made accordingly.\n\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels (G2-Moderate)\ndue to another CME passage.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at major storm levels (G2 -\nModerate) for the next few hours as CME effects continue. Eventually,\nfield activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels,\nwith a chance for minor storm (G1 - Minor) mid to late on Feb 20,\ncontinuing into Feb 21 due to an expected CME passage. Activity is\nexpected to decrease to quiet levels late on Feb 21 as CME effects\nsubside. Unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm (G1 -\nMinor) conditions are expected to persist through midday on Feb 22 with\nthe possibility of yet another CME passage, this one from the M3 flare\nearlier today.\n\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Feb 21 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n...\n\n.Forecast...\nField activity is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels (G1\n(Minor)) during Feb 21 due to an expected CME passage. Activity is\nexpected to decrease to quiet to active levels (less than G1) on Feb 22.\nToday's CMEs are expected to arrive (simultaneously) at Earth late on\nFeb 22. Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist on Feb 23 due\nto this anticipated CME passage.\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Feb 21 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 21-Feb 23 2014\n\n Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23\n00-03UT 4 3 3 \n03-06UT 5 (G1) 4 4 \n06-09UT 4 3 3 \n09-12UT 4 3 3 \n12-15UT 3 2 3 \n15-18UT 2 2 2 \n18-21UT 2 2 2 \n21-00UT 2 2 1 \n\nRationale: Field activity is expected to be at quiet to minor storm\nlevels (G1-minor) during Feb 21 due to an expected CME passage. Activity\nis expected to decrease to quiet to active levels (less than G1) on Feb\n22. Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist on Feb 23 due to\nthe anticipated arrival of two separate glancing-blow CME passages from\n20 Feb CME activity." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-20T15:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-22T12:20Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.58, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.18, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.50", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-20T15:30:00Z\n## Message ID: 20140220-AL-004\n## \n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n##Summary:\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.\n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2014-02-19T16:00:00-CME-001 (see notification 20140220-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Out of 36 ensemble members (see notes section), 32 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth between about 2014-02-21T23:45Z and 2014-02-23T01:31Z (average arrival 2014-02-22T12:20Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event at Earth:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-19_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056/20140219_160000_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-19_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056/20140219_160000_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056_anim_tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-19_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056/20140219_160000_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-19_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056/20140219_160000_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056_Earth_Density.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-19_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056/20140219_160000_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056_Earth_Velocity.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-19_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056/20140219_160000_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-19_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056/20140219_160000_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056_Earth_Temperature.gif\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event (including possible impacts at other locations), please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-19_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056/Detailed_results_20140219_160000_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE056.txt\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-22T18:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.82", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-95318.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-22T18:10Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-95318.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-02-18T01:25:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-02-18T01:25Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-02-20T02:50Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : -86, "dstMinTime" : "2014-02-20T13:00Z", "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-18T10:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-20T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.75", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Feb 18 1005 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA full halo CME erupted at 01:25 UT (first seen by LASCO-C2) as a consequence of a filament eruption in the southeast of the visible solar disc. The bulk of the CME is directed to the southeast, but it can reach the Earth. The calculated speed is 663 km/s, giving an arrival time of February 20, at 20:00 UT (with a ~12h error margin). \n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-18T20:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-21T01:05Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.20", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-18T20:38:00Z\n## Message ID: 20140218-AL-001\n## \n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n##Summary:\n\nC-type CME detected by STEREO-B COR2 / SOHO LASCO C2 & C3.\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-02-18T01:25Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~600 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 53 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): -19/-29 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-02-18T01:25:00-CME-001.\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth (although it may be a glancing blow). Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2014-02-21T01:05Z (plus or minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\n\nAdditionally, modeling indicates possible impacts at MESSENGER and Spitzer. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach MESSENGER at 2014-02-19T02:51Z (plus or minus 7 hours) and Spitzer at 2014-02-21T17:46Z (plus or minus 7 hours).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\n\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140218_073200_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140218_073200_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140218_073200_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140218_073200_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140218_073200_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140218_073200_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n## Notes:\n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-18T20:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-20T16:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 28.73, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 17.65, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.07", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-18T20:46:00Z\n## Message ID: 20140218-AL-002\n## \n## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n\n##Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.\n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2014-02-18T01:25:00-CME-001 (see notification 20140218-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Out of 36 ensemble members (see notes section), 29 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth between about 2014-02-19T11:45Z and 2014-02-21T10:08Z (average arrival 2014-02-20T16:29Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-6 (below minor to moderate). \n\nAdditionally, the ensemble simulations indicated the following additional possible impacts: \n- 27/36 ensemble members indicate an impact at MESSENGER, at an average arrival time of 2014-02-18T23:50Z\n- 28/36 ensemble members indicate an impact at Spitzer, at an average arrival time of 2014-02-20T20:45Z\n- 9/36 ensemble members indicate an impact at Mars, at an average arrival time of 2014-02-22T09:09Z\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event at Earth:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_anim_tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Earth_Density.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Earth_Velocity.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Earth_Temperature.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event (including possible impacts at other locations), please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/Detailed_results_20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055.txt\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-19T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-21T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "21.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.33", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from excerpted Forecast Discussion below)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Feb 18 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was low. Region 1977 (S11W22, Eac/beta-gamma) continued\nto produce low level C-flares as well as a couple of optical subflares.\nNominal spot growth and weak mixed polarities were still observed in the\nsouthwest quadrant of the region, but slight decay was noted in the\ntrailer spots. Region 1974 (S12W84, Ekc/beta-gamma) continued to\nprogress towards the West limb, remains one of the most complex regions,\nyet was still fairly inactive. Region 1980 (S14W39, Hax/alpha) produced\na single C1 flare at 17/2014 UTC, but was quiet thereafter. Region 1982\n(S10E63, Dki/beta) was responsible for a C3/Sf flare at 18/0959 UTC. No\nLasco imagery is available to determine whether there was an associated\ncoronal mass ejection (CME), but due to the proximity to the East limb,\nany CME produced would likely be directed away from the Sun-Earth line.\nRegion 1976 produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf, that\noccurred at 18/0133 UTC. Simultaneously, a 45deg long eruptive filament\ncentered near S43E45, was seen lifting off the solar disk from 18/0015 -\n18/0158 UTC. The associated asymmetric full halo CME, first seen in\nLasco C2 imagery at approximately 18/0125 UTC, appears to have at least\na portion of the ejecta Earth-directed and had a preliminary estimated\nspeed of approximately 695 km/s. Analysis is on-going and an Enlil run\nhas been submitted to determine speed, timing, and potential impacts to\nEarth as it passes the magnetosphere. New Region 1983 (S12E47, Cso/beta)\nwas numbered overnight, showing signs of slight growth.\n\n\n....\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Feb 19 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was low. Region 1982 (S11E57, Dki/beta-gamma) was the\nmost active, in terms of flare production, with a couple low-level\nC-class flares and frequent optical subflares. There were signs of minor\nmixed polarities in the intermediate portion of Region 1982, but\nanalysis was hampered by limb proximity. Region 1976 (S16W56, Cho/beta)\nshowed minor spot development and produced a C4/Sf flare at 18/0133 UTC,\nwhich was the largest flare of the period. Region 1974 (S12W89,\nEkc/beta-gamma) was quiet as it was crossing the west limb. Region 1977\n(S11W30, Eai/beta) showed gradual spot decay in its leader and\nintermediate portions, along with magnetic simplification. A 45-degree\nfilament erupted from the southeast quadrant during 18/0015 - 0158 UTC\nassociated with an Earth-directed, asymmetric, full-halo coronal mass\nejection (CME). Analysis of coronagraph imagery indicated an approximate\nCME speed of 695 km/s, with most of the ejecta headed southward.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be low during Feb 19 - 21 with a chance\nfor an M-class flare.\n\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous\norbit became slightly enhanced beginning around 18/0900 UTC, reached a\npeak of 1 pfu at 18/1820 UTC, then gradually decreased toward background\nlevels. There was no obvious source for the proton enhancement.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at normal levels during the period (Feb 19 - 21). The greater than\n10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at\nbackground levels during the period.\n\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nACE data indicated a mildly disturbed solar wind flow, beginning at\naround 18/0500 UTC, possibly associated with a near miss from recent CME\nactivity. Wind speed was around 350 km/s at the beginning of the period,\nthen increased during 18/0500 - 1000 UTC to a high of 441 km/s. By\n18/1200 UTC wind speed settled-in at around 400 km/s and remained so for\nthe remainder of the day. IMF Bt showed a modest 2nT increase at around\n18/0545 UTC, followed by a gradual increase as the day progressed (peak\naround 8 nT at the close of the period). IMF Bz was variable in the 7\nnT to -6 nT range during the first half of the day, then turned mostly\nsouthward during the latter half of the day (maximum deflections to -8\nnT).\n\n.Forecast...\nNominal solar wind conditions are expected to persist through Feb 20. A\nCME arrival is expected near end of day on Feb 20. Wind speed is\nexpected to increase to around 500 km/s on Feb 21 with the passage of\nthis CME (based on the latest Enlil model output), along with increased\nIMF Bt and IMF Bz variability.\n\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during Feb 19 -\n20. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to active levels on Feb\n21, with a chance for minor storm levels, due to an expected CME\npassage.\n\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Feb 19 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 19-Feb 21 2014 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 19-Feb 21 2014\n\n Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb 21\n00-03UT 2 2 3 \n03-06UT 1 1 4 \n06-09UT 1 1 4 \n09-12UT 1 1 3 \n12-15UT 1 1 3 \n15-18UT 1 1 2 \n18-21UT 2 2 2 \n21-00UT 2 2 1 \n\nRationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels\nduring Feb 19 - 20. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to active\nlevels on Feb 21, with a chance for G1-minor storm levels, due to the\nexpected 18 Feb CME passage.\n..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-20T21:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.66667, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.55", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-95394.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-20T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-95394.10", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-02-12T05:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-02-12T05:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-02-15T12:35Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "SARM", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-12T19:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-14T10:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.13", "predictionNote" : "On Feb 12, 2014, at 2:27 PM, mnunez@uma.es wrote:\n\nDear Leila,\n\nAfter running the real-time application an hour ago, it issued a prediction, that I propose you to consider it as an \"official\" prediction:\n\n Predicted shock arrival time: Feb 14th, 10:38\n Solar event: Feb 12th, 04:25" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-12T19:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-14T19:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "64.73", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-12T19:51:00Z\n## Message ID: 20140212-AL-001\n\n##Summary:\n\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1. S-type CME detected by SOHO.\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-02-11T05:24Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~488 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 8/-2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-02-11T05:24:00-CME-001.\n\n2. S-type CME detected by STEREO A / STEREO B / SOHO.\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-02-11T09:48Z .\n\nEstimated speed: ~490 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-02-11T09:48:00-CME-001.\n\n2. S-type CME detected by STEREO A / STEREO B / SOHO.\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-02-11T09:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~490 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 22/21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-02-11T09:48:00-CME-001.\n\n3. C-type CME detected by STEREO A / STEREO B / SOHO.\n\nStart time of the event: 2014-02-12T05:48Z.\n\nEstimated speed: ~755 km/s.\n\nEstimated opening half-angle: 60 deg.\n\nDirection (lon./lat.): 8/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\n\nActivity ID: 2014-02-12T05:48:00-CME-001.\n\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Messenger, Mars, and Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Messenger at about 2014-02-12T13:03Z and Mars at about 2014-02-16T09:53Z (plus minus 7 hours). \n\nThe simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2014-02-14T19:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (moderate to strong).\n\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140211_162800_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140211_162800_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140211_162800_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140211_162800_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140211_162800_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140211_162800_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n\n## Notes:\nThe CME starting at 2014-02-11T05:24Z is associated with the M1.7 flare which peaked at 2014-02-11T03:31Z from active region 11974.. The CME starting at 2014-02-11T09:48Z is associated with a filament eruption just west of active region 11973. And the CME starting at 2014-02-12T05:48Z is associated with the M3.7 flare which peaked at 2014-02-12T04:25Z from active region 11974.\n\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\n\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-12T23:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-15T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.53", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Feb 12 2303 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSince February 11, three Earth-directed CMEs were observed. We expect CMEs to interact on their way towards the Earth.\nFirst, full hallo CME was associated with the impulsive M1.7 flare (peaking at 03:31 UT) on February 11. The CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 04:12 UT and had projected plane of the sky speed about 300 km/s.\nSecond, partial halo CME was detected in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 09:24 UT on February 11 and had projected plane of the sky speed about 320 km/s. It was associated with an eruption of a filament situated to the west of the Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1973). The bulk of the CME mass was directed northward of the Sun-Earth line.\nThird, full halo CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 05:48 UT on February 12. The CME was associated with the M3.7 flare (peaking at 04:25 UT) and had the projected plane of the sky speed of about 600 km/s.\nWe expect that third, significantly faster CME will catch up the two slower CMEs. The arrival of the corresponding multiple ICME at the Earth is expected in the afternoon of February 15.\n\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-13T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-14T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.08", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from excerpted Forecast Discussion below)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Feb 12 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1974 (S13W05,\nFsc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to exhibit growth and separation in the\nintermediate spots, and was responsible for the majority of the flare\nactivity throughout the period, including three M-class flares. The\nfirst, an M1, was observed at 11/1651 UTC, the second and largest of the\nperiod, was an M3/2n flare that occurred at 12/0425 UTC, and the third\nand final M-class flare was an M2 flare at 12/0658 UTC. Region 1974 was\nresponsible for a C8 and a C5 flare during the period as well.\n\nMultiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.\nPrevious analysis of the two CMEs associated with the M1 flare and the\neruptive filament on 11 Feb indicated a potential arrival at Earth mid\nto late day on 14 Feb. Initial rough analysis of the M3/2n flare\nmentioned earlier, indicated an associated full halo CME with an\nestimated speed of 743 km/s, making an approximate arrival time at Earth\nearly on 15 Feb. An Enlil run has been submitted and adjustments to\ntiming will be made, based on the output of this model run. An eruptive\nprominence on the southwest limb was observed lifting off from\napproximately 12/0635 UTC to 12/0754 UTC. The associated CME appears to\nhave a trajectory too far southward to have an impact at Earth.\n\nRegion 1978 (N05W45, Dso/beta) exhibited consolidation in both the\nleader and trailer spots, yet remained inactive throughout the period.\nThe rest of the spotted groups were relatively stable and inactive.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor to Moderate) with\na slight chance for a X flare (R3, Strong) during the forecast period\n(12-14 Feb).\n\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (12-14 Feb).\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background\nlevels.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters, as observed at the ACE spacecraft, reflected what\nappears to be the recovery from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH\nHSS) transitioning to the influence of weak transient. The beginning of\nthe period saw solar wind speeds steadily dropping from approximately\n443 km/s to a minimum of 396 km/s. At the same time, IMF total filed\nstrength was fairly steady between 4 nT and 6 nT, IMF Bz was positive,\nand Phi angle was in a negative (towards) sector. Around 11/1800 UTC, a\nsolar sector boundary change (SSBC) was observed, transitioning Phi\nangle to a positive (away) orientation, dropping Bz to approximately -5\nnT, and a slight increase in solar wind speed, back to approximately 440\nkm/s. Right around 11/2300 UTC, Phi angle again switched back to a\nnegative (towards) orientation, IMF Bt increased to approximately 6 nT,\nBz switched back to positive, and wind speeds began a steady climb. By\n12/0330 UTC, wind speeds were back above 460 km/s, Bt was a steady 5 nT,\nBz dropped back southward to -3 nT, and Phi was firmly back into a\nnegative (towards) orientation. This is believed to be the influence of\na weak transient passing close enough to affect the Earth's\nmagnetosphere.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind conditions are likely to remain slightly elevated for day one\n(12 Feb) as the result of weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed\nstream (CH HSS) effects, returning to mostly quiet conditions on day two\n(13 Feb). The CMEs from 11 February are anticipated to arrive mid to\nlate on day 3 (14 Feb), with the potential arrival of today's full halo\nCME just outside this forecast window.\n\nGeospace\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on\nday one (12 Feb) and mostly quiet on day two (13 Feb). Initial effects\nfrom the 11 Feb CMEs are expected to begin mid to late day on day three\n(14 Feb) with a peak of active conditions (less than G1 - Minor)\nforecast at initial onset.\n\n--\n\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Feb 13 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1974 (S12W12,\nFkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to exhibit areal growth as well as\nseparation in the intermediate spots. It was responsible for the\nmajority of flare activity over the period, including three M-class\nevents. One of these, an M3/2n flare at 12/0425 UTC, was associated with\na full-halo CME with an estimated speed of around 500 km/s, to accompany\nthe two CMEs from 11 Feb. All three CMEs are expected to impact the\nMagnetosphere beginning mid-to-late on 14 Feb and carry over into 15\nFeb. New Region 1979 (N14W40, Bxo/beta) was numbered today. All other\nregions were unremarkable during the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with\na slight chance for a X flare (R3, Strong) during the forecast period\n(13-15 Feb).\n\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at moderate levels for the onset of the forecast period (13 Feb).\nFlux values will likely diminish after mid-day of day two (14 Feb) and\nthrough day three (15 Feb) due to a redistribution of particles\nfollowing the arrival of the three anticipated CMEs. The greater than 10\nMeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind conditions are expected to be mostly ambient for day one (13\nFeb) and the first half of day two (14 Feb). The CMEs from 11 February\nare anticipated to arrive mid to late on day two (14 Feb) and persist\nthrough day three (15 Feb). Today's halo-CME is expected to arrive early\non 15 Feb. Increases in solar wind speeds to near 500 km/s are expected\nbeyond mid-day on the 14th, along with intermittent CME-related changes\nin density, temperature, and magnetic disposition as the events pass\naround Earth's magnetosphere.\n\nGeospace\n\n\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on\nday one (13 Feb) and into the first half of day two (14 Feb). Initial\neffects from the 11 Feb CMEs are expected to begin mid to late on the\n14th, and carry throughout day three (15 Feb). Geomagnetic activity as\nhigh as G1 (minor) storm levels are expected at onset of transient\narrival on the 14th, and levels as high as G2 (moderate) are expected on\nthe 15th.\n\n--\n\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Feb 13 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\n\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 13-Feb 15 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\n\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 13-Feb 15 2014\n\n Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15\n00-03UT 2 3 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 1 2 6 (G2)\n06-09UT 1 2 5 (G1)\n09-12UT 1 2 5 (G1)\n12-15UT 1 3 4 \n15-18UT 1 4 3 \n18-21UT 2 5 (G1) 4 \n21-00UT 2 5 (G1) 4 \n\nRationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected during\nFeb 14 - 15 due to multiple CME passages.\n...." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-13T02:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-14T23:47Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 8.65, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.23, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.03", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-13T02:33:00Z\n## Message ID: 20140212-AL-002\n\n##Summary:\n\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.\n\nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2014-02-12T05:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20140212-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 48 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth between about 2014-02-14T15:08Z and 2014-02-15T13:01Z (average arrival 2014-02-14T23:47Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-6 (below minor to moderate).\n\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event at Earth:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-12_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054/20140212_054800_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-12_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054/20140212_054800_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054_anim_tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-12_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054/20140212_054800_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-12_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054/20140212_054800_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054_Earth_Density.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-12_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054/20140212_054800_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054_Earth_Velocity.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-12_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054/20140212_054800_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-12_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054/20140212_054800_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054_Earth_Temperature.gif\n\n\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\n\nDescription of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth.\n\nFor the full details of the modeled event (including possible impacts at other locations), please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-12_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054/Detailed_results_20140212_054800_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE054.txt\n\n\n\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\n\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\n\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\n\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\n\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \n\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-14T21:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.33333, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-95504.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-14T19:06Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-95504.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-02-04T01:25Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-02-07T16:16Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : -37, "dstMinTime" : "2014-02-09T07:00Z", "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-04T13:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-07T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.08", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Feb 04 1311 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA weak partial halo CME first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view today at 01:25 UT (after a data gap). It had the angular width of around 170 degrees and the plane-of-the-sky projected speed of around 700 km/s. The CME was most probably associated with an eruption in the western part of the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967) accompanied with a weak and small coronal dimming and a post-eruption arcade. No flare was reported as the eruption seemed associated with one of the slow increases of the solar soft X-ray flux, with the above-mentioned (unrelated) M3.8 flare superposed on top of it. Due to the weakness of the partial halo and based on its morphology, we expect only the arrival of a CME-driven shock at the Earth, probably late on February 7, with weak geomagnetic consequences up to the active level (K = 4). \n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-05T00:25Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-07T00:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.85", "predictionNote" : "Note that the CME starting on 2014-02-04T01:25Z is predicted to arrive at Earth on 2014-02-07T00:38Z and later the CME starting on 2014-02-04T16:39Z is predicted to arrive at Earth at around 2014-02-07T12:00Z.\n--\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME update\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-05T00:25:38Z\n## Message ID: 20140205-AL-001\n## Summary:\nUpdate on C-type CME with ID 2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20140204-AL-002). A second C-type CME (2014-02-04T16:39:00-CME-001) emerged from roughly the same location, and these CMEs were modeled together. The simulation indicates that both CMEs have the potential to impact geospace and Mars. \nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME(s) may affect and Mars. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2014-02-09T06:24Z (plus or minus 7 hours). \nThe simulation also indicates that the CME(s) may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2014-02-07T00:38Z (plus or minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n1: Start time of the event: 2014-02-04T01:25Z.\nEstimated speed: ~660 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 62 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\nActivity ID: 2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001\n2: Start time of the event: 2014-02-04T16:39Z.\nEstimated speed: ~570 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 20/-33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2014-02-04T16:39:00-CME-001\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001, 2014-02-04T16:39:00-CME-001):\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070100_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070100_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070100_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070100_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070100_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070100_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n--\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CMEs\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-04T14:11:40Z\n## Message ID: 20140204-AL-002\n## Summary:\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / STEREO B / SOHO. \nStart time of the event: 2014-02-04T01:25Z.\nEstimated speed: ~660 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 62 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 29/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\nActivity ID: 2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001\n2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \nStart time of the event: 2014-02-04T08:48Z.\nEstimated speed: ~365 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -136/-16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2014-02-04T08:48:00-CME-001\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME(s) may affect Mars. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2014-02-09T07:15Z (plus or minus 7 hours). \nThe simulation also indicates that the CME(s) may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2014-02-07T04:07Z (plus or minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001, 2014-02-04T08:48:00-CME-001):\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070000_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070000_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070000_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070000_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070000_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070000_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes: \n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-05T01:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-07T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "62.57", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg):\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-02-05T02:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-06T20:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 18.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 23.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "61.63", "predictionNote" : "Please note that the range includes arrival times for both CMEs.\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME update (ensemble)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-05T02:38:14Z\n## Message ID: 20140205-AL-002\n## Summary:\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \nEnsemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001 and 2014-02-04T16:39:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20140205-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 23 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach Earth between about 2014-02-06T02:37Z and 2014-02-07T19:27Z (average arrival 2014-02-06T20:39Z). Please note that this range includes arrival times for both CMEs. The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-5 (below minor to minor).\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event at Earth:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-04_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053/20140204_163905_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-04_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053/20140204_163905_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053_anim_tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-04_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053/20140204_163905_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-04_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053/20140204_163905_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053_Earth_Density.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-04_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053/20140204_163905_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053_Earth_Velocity.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-04_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053/20140204_163905_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-04_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053/20140204_163905_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053_Earth_Temperature.gif\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\nDescription of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth.\nFor the full details of the modeled event (including possible impacts at other locations), please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-04_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053/Detailed_results_20140204_163905_ncmes2_sims24_LIHUE053.txt\n###\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-07T06:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-95692.67", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-07T04:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.45", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-95692.67", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-01-30T16:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-01-30T16:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-02-02T23:18Z", "maxKP" : 2.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-30T21:49Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-02T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "73.48", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Jan 30 2149 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA full halo CME was observed today. It was associated to the M6.6 flare that peaked at 16:11UT in NOAA 1967. During this event, most of the filament that was trailing the active region was ejected into space. The CME became first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 difference imagery at 16:12UT and was a full halo by 17:24UT. It had a plane of sky speed of nearly 950 km/s (CACTUS). The bulk of the CME was directed away from Earth, but a glancing blow of the CME is expected. Preliminary calculations estimate the arrival of the CME around noon on 2 February.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-31T05:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-02T07:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "66.15", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-01-31T05:09:34Z\n## Message ID: 20140131-AL-001\n## Summary:\nC-type CME detected by STEREO B / SOHO. \nStart time of the event: 2014-01-30T16:24Z.\nEstimated speed: ~998 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 58 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -63/-15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\nActivity ID: 2014-01-30T16:24:00-CME-001\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2014-02-02T07:49Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may affect MESSENGER and Spitzer. The leading edge of the CME will reach MESSENGER at 2014-01-31T05:04Z and Spitzer at 2014-02-01T19:05Z (plus minus 7 hours). \nDue to the presence of a large coronal hole NE of the source the CME is expected to be\ndeflected. Updated models will be sent as soon as they are available.\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-01-30T16:24:00-CME-001):\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140130_192900_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140130_192900_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140130_192900_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140130_192900_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140130_192900_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140130_192900_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes: \nThis CME event (2014-01-30T16:24:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.6 flare with ID 2014-01-30T15:48:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2014-01-30T16:11Z (see alert(s) 20140130-AL-001).\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "COMESEP", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-31T08:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-04T02:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 40.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 80.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "27.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "63.03", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-31T15:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-02T05:44Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.4, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.52", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME update (ensemble)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-01-31T15:47:05Z\n## Message ID: 20140131-AL-002\n## Summary:\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2014-01-30T16:24:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20140131-AL-001).\nBased on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Out of 25 ensemble members (see notes section), 14 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth between about 2014-02-01T18:22Z and 2014-02-02T15:43Z (average arrival 2014-02-02T05:44Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event at Earth:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-30_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048/20140130_202700_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-30_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048/20140130_202700_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048_anim_tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-30_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048/20140130_202700_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-30_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048/20140130_202700_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048_Earth_Density.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-30_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048/20140130_202700_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048_Earth_Velocity.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-30_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048/20140130_202700_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-30_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048/20140130_202700_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048_Earth_Temperature.gif\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\nDescription of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth.\nFor the full details of the modeled event (including possible impacts at other locations), please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-30_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048/Detailed_results_20140130_202700_ncmes1_sims25_LIHUE048.txt\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-31T17:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-02T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.93", "predictionNote" : "Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Feb 01 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached moderate levels with an M1 flare from Region 1968\n(N10E29, Eai/beta-gamma) at 31/1542 UTC. The flare was accompanied by\ndimming in SDO/AIA 193 imagery between 31/1535-1612 UTC to the southeast\nof the region and between 31/1624-1705 UTC north of the region. A\ncoronal mass ejection (CME) was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph\nimagery emerging from the southeast at approximately 31/1602 UTC\nfollowed by a second eruption to the northeast at 31/1624 UTC. \nPreliminary analysis suggested the eruption to the northeast was moving\nat approximately 400-500 km/s. Further analysis and modeling will be\nundertaken once sufficient coronagraph imagery becomes available. \nConsolidation and flux emergence was evident in the intermediate portion\nof Region 1967 (S14E29, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) while Region 1968 grew\nslightly and developed a beta-gamma configuration.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-Minor to R2-Moderate) with a\nslight chance for an X-class flare (R3-strong) during the period (01-03\nFeb).\nEnergetic Particle\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous\norbit was at background levels.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at normal levels with a chance for moderate levels for the\nforecast period (01-03 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at\ngeosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels (below\nS1-Minor), but the threat of a proton event will be increasing as Region\n1967 crosses the central meridian.\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe solar wind environment at ACE was nominal. Speed at the ACE\nspacecraft reached 376 km/s at 31/0319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at\n31/0404Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at\n31/0929Z.\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels through\napproximately mid day on Day 2 (02 Feb), when a glancing blow from\nthe 30 Jan CME is expected to enhance the solar wind.\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (01 Feb). \nA glancing blow from the 30 Jan CME is expected to arrive around mid-day\non day 2 (02 Feb) causing unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)\nconditions. Three CME characterizations and WSA-Enlil model runs were\nconducted. The run with the most westerly origin brought the CME in\nlate on 01 Feb, representing the earliest possible arrival. The run\nwith the lowest speed brought the CME in almost 24 hours later.\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Feb 01 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 01-Feb 03 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 01-Feb 03 2014\n Feb 01 Feb 02 Feb 03\n00-03UT 2 2 3 \n03-06UT 1 1 4 \n06-09UT 1 1 3 \n09-12UT 1 5 (G1) 2 \n12-15UT 1 4 2 \n15-18UT 1 3 2 \n18-21UT 2 3 2 \n21-00UT 2 4 2 \nRationale: Unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels are expected on\nday two (02 Feb) as a glancing blow from the 30 Jan CME is expected to\nimpact the geomagnetic field." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-02T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-95805.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-02-02T07:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-95805.63", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-01-14T10:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-01-14T10:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-01-18T18:07Z", "maxKP" : 1.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-14T17:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-16T21:09Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-44.97", "leadTimeInHrs" : "96.43", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-01-14T17:41:32Z\n## Message ID: 20140114-AL-001\n## Summary:\nC-type CME detected by STEREO A / STEREO B. \nStart time of the event: 2014-01-14T10:24Z.\nEstimated speed: ~750 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -7/16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\nActivity ID: 2014-01-14T10:24:00-CME-001\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the CME will reach Earth at about 2014-01-16T21:09Z (plus or minus 7 hours), though the impact may only be a flank hit. The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (CME Activity ID: 2014-01-14T10:24:00-CME-001):\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140114_144300_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140114_144300_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140114_144300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140114_144300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140114_144300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140114_144300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes: \n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-14T19:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-17T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "94.40", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Jan 15 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity decreased to low levels. Region 1944 (S12W88) produced\ntwo low-level C-class flares as it began crossing the west limb. Region\n1953 (S17W25, Dao/beta) showed minor intermediate spot development and\nproduced a couple optical subflares during the period. Minor spot\ndevelopment also occurred in Region 1950 (N17W25, Bxo/beta). No\nremarkable changes occurred in the remaining four spotted regions,\nincluding newly numbered Region 1954 (N07W01, Bxo/beta). An eruptive\nevent was observed during approximately 14/0830 - 1100 UTC associated\nwith a coronal mass ejection (CME) that appeared to have an Earthward\ncomponent (approximate speed was 540 km/s). This was the only\nEarth-directed CME observed during the period.\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Jan 15 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels. Region 1944 (S12, L=93) produced the\nonly notable flare of the period, a C3 flare, at 14/1604 UTC. This\nregion has since rotated around the west limb. Region 1953 (S18W32,\nDao/beta) exhibited slight growth in the leader spots but was fairly\ninactive, producing only minor optical subflares during the period. The\nremaining regions on the visible disk were either stable or showed signs\nof slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be low for all three days of the period\n(15-17 Jan) with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (15\nJan).\nEnergetic Particle\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at\ngeosynchronous orbit was at background levels.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto increase to moderate to high levels during the period (Jan 15 - 17)\nin response to coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to\nremain at background levels during the period.\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nACE data indicated subsiding CH HSS effects throughout the period. Wind\nspeed remained elevated for the first half of the summary period,\nbeginning with speeds just over 650 km/s, and reaching a peak speed of\n667 km/s at 14/1442 UTC. Just after the end of the UTC day, speeds began\na gradual but steady decline, ending the period just under 500 km/s. IMF\nBt was steady throughout the period, ranging from 1 nT to 4 nT. IMF Bz\nwas variable with a range of +2/-4 nT until just after 14/0500 UTC where\nit leveled off near 0 nT to +1 nT. IMF Phi data indicated a\nnegative-polarity (Toward) solar sector during the period.\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease through\naround midday on 17 Jan as the CH HSS subsides. Increases in wind speed,\nIMF Bz variability, and IMF Bt are expected to commence around midday on\n17 Jan due to the arrival of the CME observed early on 15 Jan.\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nGeomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled with an isolated\nperiod of moderate storm levels at higher latitudes during the 12-15 UTC\nsynoptic period.\n.Forecast...\nGeomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on days one\nand two (15-16 Jan) as CH HSS effects subside. Quiet conditions are\nexpected to persist until around midday on 17 Jan when the 15 Jan CME is\nexpected to arrive, boosting activity to quiet to active levels.\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Jan 15 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 15-Jan 17 2014 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 15-Jan 17 2014\n Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17\n00-03UT 2 2 2 \n03-06UT 1 1 2 \n06-09UT 1 1 2 \n09-12UT 1 1 2 \n12-15UT 1 1 3 \n15-18UT 1 1 4 \n18-21UT 1 2 4 \n21-00UT 2 2 4 \nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No\nsignificant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 15-Jan 17 2014\n Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Jan 15-Jan 17 2014\n Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17\nR1-R2 10% 5% 5%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-15T10:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-18T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "79.43", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Jan 15 1041 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe eruption, originating from the Catania sunspot group 9 (NOAA AR 1950) at about 08:30 UT on January 14, was accompanied by coronal dimming, EIT wave and a post-eruption arcade observed by SDO/AIA. \nDue to data gap the associated partial halo CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view only at the height of about 4.5 solar radii, at 11:36 UT on January 14. The CME had a width of about 180 degrees and approximate speed of 400 km/s. The bulk of the CME mass was directed northward of the Sun-Earth line, however, we expect at least the glancing blow from the associated CME-driven shock wave, on January 18. It may result in unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-17T15:23Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-26.73", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-96170.82", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-17T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-96170.82", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-01-07T18:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T19:32Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "STOA", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-07T21:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T19:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.10", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.53", "predictionNote" : "On Jan 7, 2014, at 4:01 PM, Murray Dryer wrote:\nNariaki, Kevin, Dave, and all,\n \nBased on a NOAA/AF metric radio Type II report of a low corona shock speed, Vs = 1064 km/sec,\nSTOA predicts interplanetary shock arrival at Earth on 09 January 2014, 1926 UT +/-10hr.\n \nNariaki: you asked (below): \"> >> I would like to know how people predicted the shock arrival time and other things from the eruption/M4 flare on 2014/01/04 18-19 UT (LASCO data outage until ~22 UT). The associated shock seems to have arrived at ACE at 2014/01/07 14:32 UT.\" The only information I have comes from the NOAA/SWPC/Boulder site for the ENLIL prediction that shows the shock prediction arrival from that M4 flare at about (eyeball) 1000 UT....I don't know if the NASA/Goddard folks made a prediction. I had had no Type II info...besides trying to keep warm.... and, hence, did not use the STOA model.\n \nAt this writing, there is no other prediction from today's X1.2 flare that I am aware of. Hopefully, Kevin can get LASCO CME data to help initiate the better 3DMHD models (ENLIL at Boulder and Goddard and H3DMHD at NRL.) \n \nRegards,\nMurray" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T00:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T00:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.90", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.85", "predictionNote" : "Revised prediction\n--\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME update\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-01-08T00:41:00Z\n## Message ID: 20140108-AL-001\n## Summary:\nUpdate on CME with ID 2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20140107-AL-005). Using additional data from SOHO and STEREO, the R-type CME parameters have been updated to following:\nStart time of the event: 2014-01-07T18:24Z.\nEstimated speed: ~2400 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 68 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 40/-30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling with revised CME parameters carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact Earth, MAVEN, Mars, and Juno. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at the revised time of around 2014-01-09T00:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\nThe leading edge of the CME is also estimated reach (plus minus 7 hours):\nEarth at 2014-01-09T00:38Z\nMAVEN at 2014-01-09T00:38Z\nJuno at 2014-01-10T18:00Z \nMars at 2014-01-09T17:55Z \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001):\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_195000_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_195000_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_195000_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_195000_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_195000_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_195000_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes: \nThis CME is associated with the X1.2 flare from active regions 1943 and 1944 which peaked at 2014-01-07T18:31Z (see alert 20140107-AL-002), and SEP event detected at GOES and SOHO with activity ID 2014-01-07T20:30:00-SEP-001 (see alert 20140107-AL-004).\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.\n--\nOriginal prediction:\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME update\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-01-07T21:04:57Z\n## Message ID: 20140107-AL-005\n## Summary:\nUpdate on CME with ID 2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20140107-AL-003). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact Earth and MAVEN. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth and MAVEN at about 2014-01-08T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may affect Mars. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2014-01-09T17:08Z (plus minus 7 hours). \nUpdated R-type CME parameters are:\nStart time of the event: 2014-01-07T18:24Z.\nEstimated speed: ~2750 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 68 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\nActivity ID: 2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001):\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_193300_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_193300_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_193300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_193300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_193300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140107_193300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T01:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "42.02", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Jan 08 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at high levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1944\n(S09W08, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to be the largest, most\nmagnetically complex region on the visible disk. It was responsible for\nthe largest solar event of the period, an X1/2n flare at 07/1832 UTC,\nwhich was associated with a Type II radio burst (estimated velocity of\n1064 km/s) and an 8,300 sfu Tenflare. This region was also responsible\nfor a few low level C-class flares as well as multiple radio sweeps and\nbursts. It exhibited signs of slight decay in its trailer spot group as\nwell as parts of the intermediate spots, but had slight penumberal\ngrowth in the leader spot. Region 1946 (N09W12, Dkc/beta-gamma) had\nslight consolidation in its intermediate and leader spots, but showed\nseparation between the intermediate and trailer spots. Although this\nregion was the second largest and second most magnetically complex\nregion, it remained fairly inactive throughout the period. Region 1947\n(N11, L=180), now just beyond the west limb, was the only other flare\nproducer over the last 24 hours. This region was responsible for a M3/Sf\nflare at 08/0347 UTC that was associated with a Type II radio sweep (est\nspeed 697 km/s), a C7/Sf flare at 07/2233 UTC, and a couple of other\nlow-level C-class flares. With its current location, any associated CME\nis not expected to be Earth-directed. The only other active region on\nthe visible disk, Region 1948 (N07E46, Hsx/alpha), was stable and\nunremarkable.\nOnce enough imagery was available, in-depth analysis of the coronal mass\nejection associated with the X1/2n flare (mentioned in the previous\ndiscussion) was accomplished. The current Enlil model of this CME\nindicates a possible arrival at Earth early on 09 Jan. Potential impacts\nof this CME are discussed below.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class\nflares on days one through three (08-10 Jan), due to the magnetic\ncomplexity and flare potential of Region 1944.\nEnergetic Particles\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at\nnormal to high levels, reached a peak of 2690 pfu at 07/1550 UTC, then\nquickly dropped to background levels following redistribution of\nparticles with the arrival of the 04 Jan CME. The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux at geosynchronous orbit rose above the 10 and 100 pfu\nthresholds (S1-Minor then S2-Moderate) late in the period, following the\nX1 flare from Region 1944. They reached a maximum value of 951 pfu at\n08/0810 UTC, and remain elevated above the 900 pfu level. The 100 MeV\nproton event which began at 06/0830 UTC briefly returned to background\nconditions before becoming elevated following the above mentioned X1\nflare. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux reached a peak value of 4.2\npfu at 07/2240 UTC and remain elevated at 1.5 pfu as of this summary.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at normal levels during the period (08-10 Jan). The greater than\n10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at S2\nlevels for day one (08 Jan). During day two (09 Jan) levels are forecast\nto decrease to S1-Minor levels, prior to the anticipated arrival of the\n07 Jan CME. After the CME arrival, 10 MeV proton flux values are likely\nto elevate back into the S2-Moderate category with a slight chance of\nreaching S3-Strong levels.\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated the\narrival of the anticipated weak CME from 04 Jan. Solar wind speed\nstarted the period at 350 km/s, then indicated a sharp increase to 435\nkm/s at 07/1428 UTC with arrival of a sudden impulse from the 04 Jan\nCME. Speeds then began a steady decrease throughout the period, ending\nat a fairly constant speed near 325 km/s. An increase in density,\ntemperature and wind speed accompanied an enhancement in the\ninterplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The IMF total field reached a peak\nof 8.6 nT while the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection of\n-7.7 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominantly positive (away)\norientation for most of the period, with isolated oscillations into\nnegative (towards) territory near the end of the period.\n.Forecast...\nWind speeds are expected to remain near background levels for day one\n(08 Jan) and the first portion of day two (09 Jan) when the 07 Jan CME\nis expected to arrive. Wind speeds at or above 700 km/s are forecast\nupon the transient's arrival along with a density increase.\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on\nday one (08 Jan) into the first part of day two (09 Jan). Minor\n(G1-minor) to severe (G3-strong) storm levels are expected early on day\ntwo (09 Jan) in response to the arrival of the 07 Jan CME. Day three (10\nJan) is likely to start out at major (G2-moderate) to severe (G3-strong)\nstorm levels, decreasing to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) by midday\nbefore returning to unsettled conditions as CME effects begin to\nsubside.\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Jan 08 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 08-Jan 10 2014 is 7 (NOAA Scale\nG3).\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 08-Jan 10 2014\n Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10\n00-03UT 3 3 7 (G3)\n03-06UT 3 2 6 (G2)\n06-09UT 1 7 (G3) 5 (G1)\n09-12UT 1 7 (G3) 4 \n12-15UT 2 6 (G2) 4 \n15-18UT 2 5 (G1) 3 \n18-21UT 3 6 (G2) 3 \n21-00UT 3 6 (G2) 3 \nRationale: G1-minor to G3-strong storm levels are expected early on day\ntwo (09 Jan) in response to the arrival of the 07 Jan CME. Day three (10\nJan) is likely to start out at G2-moderate to G3-strong storm levels,\ndecreasing to G1-Minor levels by midday as CME effects begin to subside.\n..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T03:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-08T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -146, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2014-01-09T11:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-21.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.25", "predictionNote" : "This forecast from Anemomilos is from at least two events - still more may be coming.\nSpeed of 1st event is 1358 km/s\nSpeed of 2nd event is 1552 km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T04:11Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T00:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.9, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.2, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-19.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.35", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME update (ensemble)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-01-08T04:11:00Z\n## Message ID: 20140108-AL-003\n## Summary:\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20140108-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 48 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth between about 2014-01-08T17:22Z and 2014-01-09T09:26Z (average arrival 2014-01-09T00:17Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event at Earth:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_anim_tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_Earth_Density.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_Earth_Velocity.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_Earth_Temperature.gif\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\nDescription of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth.\nFor the full details of the modeled event (including possible impacts at other locations), please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/Detailed_results_20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046.txt\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T05:02Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T04:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.5, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 2.5, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.50", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Jan 09 1253 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40109\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Jan 2014, 1201UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 09 Jan 2014 until 11 Jan 2014)\nSOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Severe magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jan 2014 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 073\nPREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jan 2014 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 075\nPREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jan 2014 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 031\nCOMMENT: Three C flares occurred since our last bulletin. Two flares\noriginated from NOAA AR 1944 (Catania sunspot group 98) and one from NOAA\nAR 1946 (Catania sunspot group 97). NOAA AR 1944 showed signs of decay in\nsize, but is still strongly connected to neighbouring regions NOAA AR 1946\nand 1943. More flaring activity is possible from these regions within the\nnext 48 hours. Chances for C flares are 70%, for M flares 50% and X flares\n20%. Two coronal holes are currently located at the central meridian, one\nbetween -15 and +20 degrees latitude and one between 25 and 60 degrees\nlatitude. A high speed stream might be reaching the Earth from late January\n10 and early January 11 (UTC time) on. No additional Earth directed CMEs\nwere detected. The proton flux is still very high for >10MeV protons, but\ndecreasing. It reached a maximum value of around 1000 sfu and now has a\nvalue near 300 sfu. The proton event is expected to continue for the next\nfew hours. The proton flux for >50 and >100MeV protons is currently below\nthe event threshold. Proton fluxes might rise again in case of major\nflares. Solar wind measurements show no signs of the expected arrival yet\nof the CME of January 9. Solar wind speed has risen to a maximum near 500\nkm/s and currently has a value of 400 km/s. The magnitude of the\ninterplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating between 0 and 9 nT. The Bz-\ncomponent achieves values in the ranges from -8 to +6 nT. Minor to\nsevere storm (K=5 to 8) conditions are expected, due to arrival of the CME\nof January 7. Aurorae might be seen at higher latitudes on January 9 until\nthe noon of January 10 under clear sky conditions. Geomagnetic conditions\nare expected to stay near K=4 to 5 due to the arrival of a coronal hole\nhigh speed stream on January 11.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 074, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 08 Jan 2014\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 117\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 195\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 013\nAK WINGST : 007\nESTIMATED AP : 007\nESTIMATED ISN : 082, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\nBT\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n:Issued: 2014 Jan 08 0502 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA halo CME was associated with the X1.3 proton flare of January 7.\nSOHO/LASCO-C2 observed an asymmetric halo CME with first measurement at 18:24 UTC. The main direction of propagation is to the southwest. The event was also observed in SOHO/LASCO-C3, STEREO A/COR2 and (partly in) STEREO B/COR2 imagery data.\nThe event was combined with a type II radio burst, EUV wave and a large dimming region. The shock speed from radio spectrographs was estimated at 1064 km/s (Sagamore Hill).\nBased on time/height measurements of SOHO/LASCO data the initial CME speed is estimated at 2353 km/s. Estimates based on Stereoscopy provide an estimate of around 1900 km/s. Using the DBM propagation model with a different speed values at 20 solar radii of 1800 to 2300 km/s, the arrival time of this CME is estimated on January 9 between 2:00 and 7:00 UTC. Minor to severe storm (K=5 to 7) conditions are expected. \nIn the meantime, the proton event continues. The proton flux is still rising for the > 10MeV and >50MeV protons and is starting to decline for >100MeV protons. The current value for >10MeV protons is around 700 sfu.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ESA", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T05:58Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-08T12:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.57", "predictionNote" : "On Jan 8, 2014, at 12:58 AM, Nat Gopalswamy wrote:\nESA model shock arrival time: 1/8/14 12:30 UT, using Kevin's measurements.\nNat Gopalswamy\n--\nhttp://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/lasco/observations/halo/2014/140107/" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T06:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.00", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary:\nRadial velocity (km/s):\nLongitude (deg):\nLatitude (deg):\nHalf-angular width (deg)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T09:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "33.83", "predictionNote" : "CME arrival at target (date & time): 09-JAN-2014 at 04:00UT\nImpact speed at target (at 1 AU): 800+/-100 km/s\nInput parameters:\nCME take-off date & time: 07-JAN-2014 at 19h:24min\nR0=15.5 Rs, v0=2200 km/s, gamma=[0.1-0.2]×10-7 km-1, w=350-450 km/s, Rt=1 AU." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "COMESEP", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T14:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-10T04:04Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 16.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 36.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : -300, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.60", "predictionNote" : "COMESEP alert system (comesep.eu/alert/, EU FP7 Project COMESEP (263252)):\nThe halo or partial-halo CME detected on 07-01-2014 at 18:36 UT by CACTUS is foreseen to reach 1 AU on 10-01-2014 at 04:04 UT with a transit speed of 492 km/s calculated by DBM running at Hvar Observatory, Facuty of Geodesy.\nThe risk level for a CME geomagnetic storm is HIGH following the observation of a CME that erupted at 18:36 on 2014-01-07 UTC. The risk level results from the following forecasted parameters: 1) occurrence probability: POSSIBLE 2) storm level: SEVERE" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Expansion Speed Prediction Model", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T16:37Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T08:02Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "26.92", "predictionNote" : "CME expansion speed in LASCO/C3 (Vexp): 3018.07 km/s" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "BHV", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T17:53Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 8.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 9.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "25.65", "predictionNote" : "" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T23:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -142, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2014-01-09T12:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-18.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.53", "predictionNote" : "revised speed of first event to 1070 km/sec" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-08T23:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "20.25", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: Low\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version: wsa_vel_21.5rs_2014010820\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 20140107T2003\nRadial velocity (km/s): 2056\nLongitude (deg): 26\nLatitude (deg): -21\nHalf-angular width (deg): 47\nNotes:" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-09T18:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T11:22Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 11.7, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.1, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "0.58", "predictionNote" : "Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 48 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth between about 2014-01-08T17:22Z and 2014-01-09T09:26Z (average arrival 2014-01-09T00:17Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-9 (below minor to extreme).\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event at Earth:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_anim_tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_Earth_Density.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_Earth_Velocity.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046_Earth_Temperature.gif\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\nDescription of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth.\nFor the full details of the modeled event (including possible impacts at other locations), please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046/Detailed_results_20140107_182400_ncmes1_sims48_LIHUE046.txt\n###" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T06:35Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.625, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-96385.40", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-09T04:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-15.03", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-96385.40", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2014-01-04T21:25:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2014-01-04T21:25Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2014-01-07T14:26Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-05T12:27Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-08T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.98", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2014 Jan 05 1227 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 40105\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Jan 2014, 1201UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Jan 2014 until 07 Jan 2014)\nSOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jan 2014 10CM FLUX: 240 / AP: 005\nPREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jan 2014 10CM FLUX: 250 / AP: 006\nPREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jan 2014 10CM FLUX: 250 / AP: 007\nCOMMENT: Two C flares and two M flares were measured by GOES during the\npast 24 hours. A long duration M4.0 flare occurred in the western part of\nNOAA AR 11944 on January 4 with peak time at 19:46 UT. An associated CME is\nmainly propagating southward, but more properties are difficult to\ndetermine due to a data gap in STEREO and LASCO imagery. NOAA AR 11944\ncontinued to grow in size and number of sunspots. It currently has a beta-\ngamma-delta magnetic configuration of its photospheric field. A long\nduration M2.0 flare erupted on January 4 with peak time at 22:52 UT. The\nsource region for this event is NOAA AR 11936, currently located at the\nwest limb. A related CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and STEREO B\ncoronagraphic imagery (first measurement in LASCO/C2 at 23:12 UT). Based on\nthe current observations, the CME is mainly propagating in the northwest\ndirection with an estimated projected speed of 520 km/s. A glancing blow\nmight arrive at Earth on January 8 around 0:00 UT. The >10 MeV proton\nflux was enhanced during the past 12 hours, but remained below the\nthreshold level. The flaring chances for the next 48 hours are high: 90%\nfor C flares, 70% for M flares. There is also some chance for an X flare\n(20%). We maintain the warning condition for proton events. Current solar\nwind speed measured by ACE is around 450 km/s. The magnitude of the\ninterplanetary magnetic field remains around 4 to 6 nT. Current geomagnetic\nconditions are quiet (K=0 to 2) to unsettled (K=3) (estimated NOAA Kp 1\nto 2 and K_Izmiran 1 to 3). Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are\nexpected to continue for the next 48 hours.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 093, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 04 Jan 2014\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 215\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 008\nAK WINGST : 006\nESTIMATED AP : 005\nESTIMATED ISN : 092, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \n04 1905 1946 2023 ////// M4.0 550 /////// VI/2IV/1 \n04 2212 2252 2322 ////// M1.9 ///1936 \nEND\nBT\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-05T16:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-07T16:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.50", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CMEs\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2014-01-05T16:56:00Z\n## Message ID: 20140105-AL-001\n## Summary:\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \nStart time of the event: 2014-01-04T21:25Z.\nEstimated speed: ~695 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 4/-35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\nActivity ID: 2014-01-04T21:25:00-CME-001\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO B / SOHO. \nStart time of the event: 2014-01-05T00:54Z.\nEstimated speed: ~650 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 87/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2014-01-05T00:54:00-CME-001\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the 2014-01-04T21:25Z CME may impact Earth with a glancing blow. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of this CME will reach Earth at about 2014-01-07T16:03Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-01-04T21:25:00-CME-001, 2014-01-05T00:54:00-CME-001):\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140104_234200_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140104_234200_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140104_234200_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140104_234200_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140104_234200_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140104_234200_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes: \nThe first CME that begins around 2014-01-04T21:25Z is associated with an M4.0 flare from Active Region 1944 that peaked in intensity around 2014-01-04T19:46Z. The second CME that begins around 2014-01-05T00:54Z is associated with an M1.9 flare from Active Region 1936 that peaked in intensity around 2014-01-05T22:52Z.\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (ips.gov.au)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-05T23:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-07T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 12.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 12.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.93", "predictionNote" : "SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT\nISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES\nFROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE\nSUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY\nSTATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN\n-----------------------------------------------------------\n1A. SOLAR SUMMARY\nActivity 05 Jan: Moderate\nFlares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors\n M1/-- 04/2252UT observed lower East Pacific/\n North American\nObserved 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 218/168\n1B. SOLAR FORECAST\n 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan\nActivity Moderate Moderate Moderate\nFadeouts Possible Possible Possible\n10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 215/165\nCOMMENT: Low levels of solar activity were observed today. Several \nC-class flares were observed, the largest being a C6.6 flare \nfrom region 1944 (S10E29) that peaked at 1518UT. Yesterday's \nlate flare, that could not be included in yesterday's report, \nwas an M1.9 flare from region 1936(15W90) at 2252UT. The CME \nassociated with the M4 flare (4 Jan/1946) seems to be having \na geoeffective component. A glancing blow may be observed on \n7 January due to this event. As anticipated, the solar wind stream \nshowed further weakening as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective \nlocation. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 460 to \n400 km/s over the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF mostly \nvaried between +/-4 nT during this time. Moderate levels of solar \nactivity may be expected for the next 3 days with some possibility \nof isolated X-class activity.\n-----------------------------------------------------------\n2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY\nGeomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet\nEstimated Indices 05 Jan : A K \n Australian Region 4 22211101\n Darwin 3 22101102\n Townsville 4 22211101\n Learmonth 4 22211101\n Alice Springs 2 22100101\n Culgoora 3 12211101\n Gingin 4 32201001\n Camden 4 2221111-\n Canberra 1 12100000\n Launceston 5 22221102\n Hobart 4 22211101 \nEstimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :\n Macquarie Island 2 11210000\n Casey 17 45432112\n Mawson 13 34324212\n Davis 11 23334211\nObserved Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : \n Darwin 2 (Quiet)\n Townsville 0 (Quiet)\n Learmonth 0 (Quiet)\n Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)\n Gingin 0 (Quiet)\n Canberra 2 (Quiet)\nPc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations \nof the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum \nof 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be\nwell correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic\nsurvey flight-line data. \nNOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in \ncooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, \nUniversity of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government \nAntarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather \nScience and Education, Japan.\nEstimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A \n Fredericksburg 4\n Planetary 5 \nObserved AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K\n Fredericksburg 6\n Planetary 4 0002 2221 \n2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST \nDate Ap Conditions\n06 Jan 4 Quiet\n07 Jan 10 Unsettled to Active\n08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled\nCOMMENT: Geomagnetic activity mostly stayed at Quiet levels today. \nNearly similar conditions may be expected on 6 January. Activity \nmay rise from Quiet to Active levels on 7 January and then decline \nto Unsettled to Quiet levels on 8 January.\n-----------------------------------------------------------\n3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY\n Latitude Band\nDate Low Middle High \n05 Jan Normal Normal Normal \nPCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 12 2013 1905UT and is in progress\n3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST\n Latitude Band\nDate Low Middle High \n06 Jan Normal Normal Normal\n07 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair\n08 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal\nCOMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last \n24 hours on most locations. Periods of presence of sporadic E \nlayers were also observed. HF conditions are expected to be mostly \nnormal on 6 January. Minor degradations in HF conditions and \nMUF depressions may be observed on 7 January and early on 8 January \ndue to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels during \nthis period. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected from \nthe second half of 8 January. Short wave fadeouts may be possible \nfrom 6 to 8 January due to the potential of flaring activity \non the sun.\n-----------------------------------------------------------\n4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY\nDate T index\n05 Jan 127\nObserved Australian Regional MUFs\n Cocos Island Region:\n No data available during local day.\n No data available during local night.\n Niue Island Region:\n Near predicted monthly values during local day.\n No data available during local night.\n Northern Australian Region:\n Enhanced by 15% during local day.\n Enhanced by 25% during local night.\n Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:\n Near predicted monthly values during local day.\n Enhanced by 15% during local night.\n Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):\n Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.\nMonthly T index:\nMonth T index\nDec 130\nJan 73\nFeb 71\n4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST\nDate T index MUFs\n06 Jan 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values\n07 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values\n08 Jan 125 Near to 10% above predicted monthly values\nCOMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last \n24 hours in the Aus/NZ region. Periods of presence of sporadic \nE layers were also observed. HF conditions are expected to be \nmostly normal on 6 January. Minor degradations in HF conditions \nand MUF depressions may be observed on 7 January and early on \n8 January due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels \nduring this period. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected \nfrom the second half of 8 January. Short wave fadeouts may be \npossible from 6 to 8 January due to the potential of flaring \nactivity on the sun.\n-----------------------------------------------------------\n5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY\nGOES satellite data for 04 Jan\n Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05\n Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04\n Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)\nElectron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%\nFluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.\n X-ray background: C1.7\nACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan\nSpeed: 505 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: 0 nT\n(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)\nACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.\n-----------------------------------------------------------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2014-01-06T19:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-07T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.43", "leadTimeInHrs" : "19.00", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Jan 07 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest\nsolar event of the period was a C7/1f flare from Region 1944 (S09E18,\nFkc/beta-gamma-delta) at 06/0019 UTC. Region 1944 is the largest and\nmost magnetically complex region on the visible disk. It was also\nresponsible for additional low level C-class flaring during the period.\nRegion 1946 (N09E14, Dac/beta-gamma) was not responsible for any\nsignificant flaring but showed signs of growth in its intermediate spots\nand consolidation in its follower spot group. The additional seven\nnumbered sunspot regions were stable or in a state of slight decay.\nFurther analysis on the 04 Jan coronal mass ejection (CME) forecasts the\nmajority of the plasma ejecta traveling south of the Sun-Earth line.\nGlancing blow effects from this CME are expected midday on 07 Jan. After\nfurther analysis, the CME associated with old Region 1936 (S15, L=225)\nwhich first appeared in LASCO/C3 imagery at 06/0954 UTC and was reported\nin the previous discussion is not anticipated to have an Earth-directed\ncomponent. There were no additional CMEs observed in satellite imagery\nduring the period.\n--\nOriginal predicted arrival time 2014-01-07T05:00Z (submitted 2014-01-06T01:26Z)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Jan 05 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 1944 (S08E32,\nFkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a few M-class (R1-minor) events during\nthe period. The largest of these events was a long duration, M4 x-ray\nevent observed at 04/1946 UTC. Associated with this event were Type IV\nand 10cm (550 sfu) radio emissions. As observed on GONG, GOES-15 SXI and\nSDO imagery, the bulk of the bright flare material originated from the\nextreme western edge of the large leader spot and extended in a westward\ndirection out ahead of Region 1944. At 04/2148 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2\nimagery showed an asymmetric, full halo CME. Analysis suggested the CME\nmay have an Earth-directed component and was moving around 800-1000\nkm/s. Region 1944 developed a weak delta magnetic configuration and\nshowed intermediate spot consolidation and trailer spot penumbral\ngrowth.\nRegion 1936 (S15, L=232) produced a long duration M1 x-ray event\nobserved off the west limb at 04/2252 UTC. Associated with this event\nwas a Type IV radio sweep. Region 1937 (S13W65, Dac/beta-gamma-delta)\ncontinued to grow, particularly in the intermediate-trailer portions of\nthe region. New Region 1946 (N09E28, Dai/beta) emerged on the disk as a\nsimple bi-polar group and quickly grew. The remaining regions were quiet\nand stable.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-Minor to\nR2-Moderate) for the next three days (05 - 07 Jan) with a chance for\nX-class (R3-Strong) flares from active Region 1944.\nEnergetic Particle\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nmoderate levels reaching a peak of 879 pfu at 04/1500 UTC. The\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly\nenhanced following the M-flare activity mentioned above.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at moderate to high levels during the period (05 - 07 Jan) in\nresponse to a geoeffective coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to\nremain at background levels during 05 - 07 Jan with a chance for an S1\n(Minor) event due to the flare potential of Region 1944.\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft slowly decline through the period\nto end near 450 km/s, signalling the end of the high speed stream. ACE\nremained in a positive solar sector under benign magnetic conditions. \nBt remained at or below 5 nT and Bz never dropped below -5 nT.\n.Forecast...\nNominal wind speeds are expected through the first two days of the\nforecast period (05 - 06 Jan). The solar wind environment may reflect\nthe arrival of a shock and CME on day 3 (07 Jan).\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the\nfirst two days of the forecast period (05 - 06 Jan). A manual prognosis\nsuggests the CME above will arrive late on day 3 (07 January) and bring\na chance for a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm. Further refinement of the\ntiming and magnitude should be expected as additional imagery and\nnumerical model output are received.\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2014 Jan 05 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 05-Jan 07 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 05-Jan 07 2014\n Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07\n00-03UT 1 2 2 \n03-06UT 1 1 1 \n06-09UT 2 1 1 \n09-12UT 1 1 1 \n12-15UT 1 1 1 \n15-18UT 1 1 5 (G1)\n18-21UT 1 2 4 \n21-00UT 2 2 3 \nRationale: There is a chance for a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm on late\non day three (07 Jan) with the arrival of a CME from 04 Jan.\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds but enhanced.\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 05-Jan 07 2014\n Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07\nS1 or greater 30% 30% 30%\nRationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation\nstorms through the forecast period, particularly from Region 1944.\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\nRadio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24\nhours. The largest was at Jan 04 2014 1946 UTC\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Jan 05-Jan 07 2014\n Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07\nR1-R2 75% 75% 75%\nR3 or greater 30% 30% 30%\nRationale: R1 (Minor) to R2 (moderate) radio blackouts are expected,\nparticularly from Region 1944. There is also a chance for an R3 or\ngreater radio blackout through the forecast period.\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2014 Jan 06 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n...\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the\nfirst day of the forecast period (06 Jan). Preliminary modelling of the\nCME mentioned above indicates an arrival time approximately mid to late\non day 2 (07 Jan) causing unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)\nconditions. CME effects are expected to persist into day 3 (08 Jan)\ncausing continued unsettled to active conditions." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-07T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-96438.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2014-01-07T14:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-0.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-96438.50", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-12-12T03:54:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-12-12T03:54Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-12-14T14:00Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-12-12T17:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-12-15T03:38Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.63", "leadTimeInHrs" : "44.85", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CMEs\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-12-12T17:09:00Z\n## Message ID: 20131212-AL-001\n## Summary:\nMultiple CMEs have been detected as follows:\n1: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / STEREO B.\nStart time of the event: 2013-12-12T03:54Z.\nEstimated speed: ~1060 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 51/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\nActivity ID: 2013-12-12T03:54:00-CME-001\n2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / STEREO B / SOHO.\nStart time of the event: 2013-12-12T06:36Z.\nEstimated speed: ~823 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 0/-54 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\nActivity ID: 2013-12-12T06:36:00-CME-001\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the C-type CME may have a flank impact at Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2013-12-15T03:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).\nThe simulation also indicates that the O-type CME may affect Mars. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2013-12-16T18:40Z (plus minus 7 hours).\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2013-12-12T03:54:00-CME-001, 2013-12-12T06:36:00-CME-001):\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131212_064300_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131212_064300_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131212_064300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131212_064300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131212_064300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131212_064300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes:\n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center\nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-12-13T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-12-15T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "37.50", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from Forecast Discussion below)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2013 Dec 13 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity continued at low levels. There were two filament\neruptions during the period with associated coronal mass ejections\n(CMEs). The first was a 15 degree filament, centered near S31W41, that\nwas observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting off the solar disk from\n12/0304 UTC to 12/0330 UTC. In H-alpha imagery, it appeared that the\neruption was connected to Region 1912 (S21W64, Hsx/alpha) and was\nlargely responsible for the C4/Sf flare at 12/0336 UTC. The eruptive\nfilament structure had an associated Type II (estimated at 511 km/s) and\nType IV radio sweeps as well as a partial halo CME first observed in\nSOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 12/0336 UTC. A 7-degree filament eruption\ncentered near S32E27 was observed from approximately 12/0451 UTC to\n12/0624 UTC. The filament eruption appeared in conjunction with the C3\nflare at 12/0659 UTC from Region 1917 (S15E04, Cai/beta), as observed in\nGOES-15 SXI imagery. An associated CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2\nimagery beginning at 12/0636 UTC. WSA/Enlil model output indicated that\na glancing blow from the combination of both CMEs is likely by early on\n15 December.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares\n(R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) for the forecast period (13-15 Dec).\nEnergetic Particle\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at\ngeosynchronous orbit was at background levels.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (13-15 Dec). \nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is\nexpected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor) for the\nforecast period (13-15 Dec).\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind continued at nominal levels during the period. Solar wind\nspeed ranged from 270 km/s to 333 km/s with the total field between 1 nT\nand 3 nT. The Bz component was mostly southward from +1 nT to -3 nT. \nPhi angle was variable between positive (away) and negative (towards)\nsectors.\n.Forecast...\nA co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by a negative-polarity\ncoronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become\ngeoeffective by late on day 1 (13 Dec) to early on day 2 (14 Dec)\ncausing an enhancement in solar wind velocity, temperature, density, and\ntotal field. STEREO B PLASTIC data indicates possible velocity\nincreases reaching 600 km/s. A further enhancement is expected early on\nday 3 (15 Dec) due to a glancing blow from the 12 Dec CMEs.\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through the first\nhalf of the UTC day on day 1 (13 Dec). By late on day 1 to early on day\n2 (14 Dec) a CIR followed by negative-polarity CH HSS is expected to\nimpact the geomagnetic field causing unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)\nconditions. By day 3 (15 Dec), a glancing blow from the 12 Dec CMEs is\nexpected to impact the geomagnetic field causing quiet to active\nconditions.\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help.\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2013 Dec 13 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 13-Dec 15 2013 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 13-Dec 15 2013\n Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15\n00-03UT 2 5 (G1) 4 \n03-06UT 1 4 3 \n06-09UT 1 4 3 \n09-12UT 1 3 3 \n12-15UT 1 3 3 \n15-18UT 2 2 2 \n18-21UT 4 3 2 \n21-00UT 5 (G1) 3 2 \nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on Dec 13-Dec 14\ndue to coronal hole high-speed stream effects.\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 13-Dec 15 2013\n Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Dec 13-Dec 15 2013\n Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15\nR1-R2 30% 30% 30%\nR3 or greater 5% 5% 5%\nRationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts\nduring the forecast period (Dec 13-Dec 15) due to the flare potential in\nsome of the sunspot groups presently on the disk.\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-12-13T15:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-12-14T18:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 16.1, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 13.9, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "22.75", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME update (ensemble)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-12-13T15:15:00Z\n## Message ID: 20131213-AL-001\n## Summary:\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \nEnsemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2013-12-12T03:54:00-CME-001 and 2013-12-12T06:36:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20131212-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 36 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the CMEs will reach Earth between about 2013-12-14T04:20Z and 2013-12-15T10:15Z (average arrival 2013-12-14T18:11Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-6 (below minor to moderate).\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event at Earth:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-12_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044/20131212_063600_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-12_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044/20131212_063600_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044_anim_tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-12_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044/20131212_063600_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-12_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044/20131212_063600_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044_Earth_Density.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-12_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044/20131212_063600_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044_Earth_Velocity.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-12_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044/20131212_063600_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-12_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044/20131212_063600_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044_Earth_Temperature.gif\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\nDescription of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth.\nFor the full details of the modeled event (including possible impacts at other locations), please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-12_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044/Detailed_results_20131212_063600_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE044.txt\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-12-14T23:16Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.27", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-97014.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-12-15T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-97014.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-12-04T23:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-12-04T23:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-12-08T00:00Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-12-06T01:09Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-12-07T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.85", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME update\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-12-06T01:09:53Z\n## Message ID: 20131206-AL-001\n## Summary:\nUpdate on CME with ID 2013-12-04T23:12:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20131205-AL-001). Using new data, the CME parameters have been updated, and an additional CME (2013-12-05T00:12:00-CME-001) occurring around the same time has also been included in the simulation. Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs starting at 2013-12-04T23:12Z and 2013-12-05T00:12Z may have a flank impact at Earth and Mars respectively. Updated simulations indicate that the southern flank of the CME starting at 2013-12-04T23:12Z will reach Earth at about 2013-12-07T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The updated roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor to minor). Simulations also indicate that the southern flank of the CME starting 2013-12-05T00:12Z will reach Mars at about 2013-12-10T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). \nUpdated CME parameters are:\n1: Start time of the event: 2013-12-04T23:12Z.\nEstimated speed: ~700 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -15/48 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\nActivity ID: 2013-12-04T23:12:00-CME-001\n2: Start time of the event: 2013-12-05T00:12Z.\nEstimated speed: ~650 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 68/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).\nActivity ID: 2013-12-05T00:12:00-CME-001\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2013-12-04T23:12:00-CME-001, 2013-12-05T00:12:00-CME-001):\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131205_051600_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131205_051600_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131205_051600_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131205_051600_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131205_051600_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131205_051600_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes: \n[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-12-06T16:10Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-12-07T13:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 4.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 4.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "31.83", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME update (ensemble)\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-12-06T16:10:00Z\n## Message ID: 20131206-AL-002\n## Summary:\nBETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. \nEnsemble modeling update on CME with ID 2013-12-04T23:12:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20131206-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 37 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the southern flank of the CME will reach Earth between about 2013-12-07T09:38Z and 2013-12-07T17:49Z (average arrival 2013-12-07T13:45Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-6 (below minor to moderate).\nLinks to the ensemble details of the modeled event at Earth (includes CMEs 2013-12-04T23:12:00-CME-001, 2013-12-05T00:12:00-CME-001):\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-05_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043/20131204_231200_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043_anim_tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-05_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043/20131204_231200_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043_anim_tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-05_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043/20131204_231200_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043_arrival_Earth.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-05_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043/20131204_231200_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043_Earth_Density.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-05_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043/20131204_231200_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043_Earth_Velocity.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-05_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043/20131204_231200_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-05_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043/20131204_231200_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043_Earth_Temperature.gif\n## Notes:\nSWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.\nDescription of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth.\nFor the full details of the modeled event (including possible impacts at other locations), please go here:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-12-05_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043/Detailed_results_20131204_231200_ncmes2_sims48_LIHUE043.txt\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-12-07T15:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-97172.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-12-07T15:52Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 2.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.13", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-97172.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-10-25T15:12:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-10-25T15:12Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-10-29T07:10Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-10-25T21:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-28T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.92", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2013 Oct 26 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was high. At 25/1503 UTC, Region 1882 (S08E54,\nDao/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X2 flare that was associated with\nTypes II (2078 km/s) and IV radio emissions with another Castelli U\nradio signature including a 370 sfu Tenflare. SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph\nimagery depicted a partial-halo CME emerging from the east limb\nbeginning at 25/1512 UTC. WSA-Enlil model output suggest this CME will\nmerge with the ejecta from the 24 October M9 flare and arrive on the\n28th.\nRegion 1882 also produced six M-class events, including an M1 flare at\n26/0937 UTC. A Type II (1275 km/s) radio sweep was reported with this\nflare, beginning at 26/0931 UTC and dimming was apparent in SDO/AIA 193\nimagery south of the region. This event has yet to be observed in\navailable coronagraph imagery. Region 1882 continued to evolve in both\narea, spot count and magnetic complexity.\nRegions 1875 (N07W44, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and 1877 (S13W23,\nDhi/beta-gamma) remained the largest on the visible disk. Region 1875\ngrew slightly while 1877 was relatively stable. Between 26/0442-0747\nUTC, EUV dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery south of and\nbetween Regions 1875 and 1877. A CME was subsequently observed in\nSOHO/LASCO C2 imagery emerging from the west beginning at 26/0700 UTC. \nThis event has not yet been modeled, but a preliminary analysis using\navailable coronagraph imagery suggests it was moving at approximately\n400 km/s and may have an Earth-directed component.\nA second dimming event was observed between 26/0827-1015 UTC in the same\nvicinity and brightening was evident in Regions 1875 and 1877 around the\nsame time as the M1 flare from Region 1882. This event has not yet been\nobserved in coronagraph imagery. Finally, a filament eruption was in\nprogress in the southwestern quadrant at the time of this writing.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be at M-class levels (NOAA Scale R1-R2\nMinor-Moderate) with a further chance for X-class flares (NOAA Scale R3-\nStrong) for the next three days (26 - 28 Oct).\nEnergetic Particle\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nmoderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous\norbit was slightly elevated.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate\nflux levels for a majority of the next three days (26 - 28 Oct). The\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux is generally expected to remain below\nalert threshold levels for the next three days (26 - 28 Oct). However,\ndue to the recent major activity and magnetic complexity of Regions\n1875, 1877 and 1882, a chance for an S1-Minor proton event exists.\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind at the ACE spacecraft reflected a couple of possible weak\ntransient passages. Speed began near 350 km/s declining to 280 km/s by\nthe end of the period. A discontinuity in the density data was observed\naround 25/1925 UTC coupled with a drop in temperature and a shift in the\nPhi angle. Bt, however remained less than 5 nT through the entire\nperiod and Bz never dipped below about -3 nT.\n.Forecast...\nThe latest WSA-Enlil run indicates potential transient passages mid to\nlate on day 1 (26 Oct) and around the middle of day 3 (28 Oct). Solar\nwind speed is not expected to increase significantly with these\ntransient passages.\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to\nunsettled levels, with a chance for active conditions, on days one and\ntwo (26 - 27 Oct) with the arrival of the 22 October M4 CME. Day three\n(28 Oct) is expected to see isolated active intervals and a slight\nchance for minor storm conditions when the ejecta from the M9 event of\n24 October and the X-class events of 25 October arrives.\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "STOA", "submissionTime" : "2013-10-26T00:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-26T23:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-55.28", "leadTimeInHrs" : "78.82", "predictionNote" : "From: Murray Dryer \nSubject: X2.1 flare, 25 October2013, S08E59, Halo CME\nDate: October 25, 2013 8:21:46 PM EDT\nTo: spaceweather \nAssociated with subject flare, Sagamore Hill reports a metric Type II drift from 180 ->25 MHz with an estimated coronal shock speed, Vs = 2078 km/s. Kevin Schenk reports a Halo CME with a speed, Vcme = 1247 km/s, averaged in C2 and C3 of SOHO.\n \nSTOA shock (western flank) arrival predicted on 26 October 2013, 2353 UT +/-10hr.\n \nCaveat: Earlier flares are not considered as in advanced 3D models.\n \nInteresting Halloween 2013 period!\n \nMurray" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-10-26T13:46Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-28T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "65.40", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2013 Oct 26 1346 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 31026\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 Oct 2013, 1310UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 26 Oct 2013 until 28 Oct 2013)\nSOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 161 / AP: 011\nPREDICTIONS FOR 27 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 161 / AP: 014\nPREDICTIONS FOR 28 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 161 / AP: 028\nCOMMENT: There were one X flare, six M flares, and thirteen C flares on the Sun in\nthe past 24 hours. The X2.1 flare peaked at 15:03 UT on October 25 and was\nassociated with a radio Type II burst with an estimated shock speed of 2078\nkm/s at Sagamore Hill. All M and X flares and five C flares were produced\nby beta-gamma-delta region NOAA AR 11882. Five C flares were released by\nbeta-gamma-delta region AR 11875, and one C flare each by AR 11869, AR\n11874 and beta-gamma region AR 11877. Type II bursts were also registered\nin association with the C2.3 flare released by AR 11875 peaking at 13:37 UT\non October 25 (estimated shock speed 1083 km/s by Sagamore Hill) and the\nM1.5 flare released by AR 11882 peaking at 9:37 UT on October 26 (estimated\nshock speed 1275 km/s by San Vito). In the next 48 hours, X flares are\npossible, especially from NOAA AR 11882. There is a substantial risk of\nhalo CMEs and the warning condition for proton storms remains valid.\nSeveral CMEs were ejected on October 25 and 26, among which two frontsided\nhalo CMEs. The first halo CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 8:24 UT on\nOctober 25 and was associated to the X1.7 flare. The second halo CME was\nfirst observed by LASCO C2 at 15:12 UT on October 25 and was associated\nwith the X2.1 flare. Both CMEs are expected to arrive on October 28.\nGeomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA\nKp between 0 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes\n= 4) are expected for the second half of October 26, due to the expected\narrival of the October 22 (M4.2) CME. Quiet conditions are expected on\nOctober 27, and minor storm conditions are expected on October 27 due to\nthe expected merged arrival of several CMEs (among which the two halo CMEs\nof October 25).\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 085, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 25 Oct 2013\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 142\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 161\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 007\nAK WINGST : 002\nESTIMATED AP : 002\nESTIMATED ISN : 096, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \n25 1451 1503 1512 ////// X2.1 370 23/1882 I/2 2V/2 \n25 1702 1709 1716 ////// M1.3 23/1882 III/2 \n25 1905 1921 1924 S06E66 M2.3 SF 23/1882 \n25 2054 2058 2113 S07E64 M1.9 1N 23/1882 III/2 \n26 0559 0606 0620 S09E61 M2.3 1B 23/1882 III/2 \n26 0917 0937 0948 ////// M1.5 23/1882 II/2 \nEND\nBT\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone", "submissionTime" : "2013-10-27T00:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-28T04:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-27.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.87", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2013-10-25 19:31\nRadial velocity (km/s): 868\nLongitude (deg): -33\nLatitude (deg): 8\nHalf-angular width (deg): 5" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-27T20:28Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-34.70", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-98125.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-28T02:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-29.17", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-98125.77", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-10-24T01:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-10-24T01:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-10-28T04:40Z", "maxKP" : null, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-10-24T15:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-26T05:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-47.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "85.47", "predictionNote" : "http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131022_092700_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131022_092700_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif\n--\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-10-24T15:12:16Z\n## Message ID: 20131024-AL-002\n## Summary:\nUpdate on Alert with ID 20131023-AL-001. This simulation includes a third CME originating from AR 1877 on 2013-10-24 and is associated with the M9.4 Flare with Activity ID 2013-10-24T00:22:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2013-10-24T00:30Z (see alert 20131024-AL-001). It should be noted that the parameters for the latest CME are rough estimates.\nUpdated CME parameters are:\n1: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. \nStart time of the event: 2013-10-24T01:48Z.\nEstimated speed: ~1000 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -8/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2013-10-24T01:48:00-CME-001\n2: C-type CME detected by SOHO. \nStart time of the event: 2013-10-22T22:00Z.\nEstimated speed: ~650 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 55 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 10/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2013-10-22T22:00:00-CME-001\n3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / STEREO B / SOHO. \nStart time of the event: 2013-10-22T04:36Z.\nEstimated speed: ~782 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 48 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -6/49 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2013-10-22T04:36:00-CME-001\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME(s) may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2013-10-25T09:54Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (minor).\nThe simulation also indicates that the CME(s) may affect Messenger. The leading edge of the CME(s) will reach Messenger at 2013-10-23T10:40Z (plus minus 7 hours). \nLinks to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2013-10-24T01:48:00-CME-001, 2013-10-22T22:00:00-CME-001, 2013-10-22T04:36:00-CME-001):\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131022_092700_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131022_092700_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131022_092700_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131022_092700_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131022_092700_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131022_092700_anim.tim-vel.gif\n## Notes: \nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-10-24T18:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-26T16:03Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-36.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "81.75", "predictionNote" : "Inner Planets\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131024_030300_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131024_030300_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131024_030300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131024_030300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131024_030300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131024_030300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nTimelines\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131024_030300_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20131024_030300_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-10-25T01:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-28T16:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "11.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "75.40", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2013 Oct 25 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was high. The largest flare of the period came from\nRegion 1877 (S12W03, Dkc/beta-gamma). An impulsive M9/1n (R2 -\nModerate on the NOAA Scale) erupted at approximately 24/0030 UTC and was\nassociated with Types II (est. speed 1321 km/s) and IV radio emissions.\nA faint, full-halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately\n24/0148 UTC, associated with the M9 event. Preliminary Enlil model\noutput indicated potential impacts at Earth early on 28 October. Region\n1877 continued to increase in area, but lost its delta configuration\nduring the past 12 hours. Region 1875 (N08W23, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta)\ncontinued to be the largest and most active region on the disk producing\nmultiple C-class flares as well as several impulsive M-class (R1 - Minor\non the NOAA Scale) flares during the period. These included an M3 at\n24/0016 UTC, an M2 at 24/1009 UTC, and another M3 at 24/1033 UTC with\nassociated Type IV radio emissions. As with 1877, this region showed\ngrowth in areal coverage, primarily in the trailer portion. This region\nmaintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, mainly in the\nintermediate spots. New Region 1881 (S22E37, Bxo/beta) evolved on the\ndisk while Region 1882 (S08E73, Dso/beta) rotated onto the disk and\nproduced a C2 x-ray event at 24/1707 UTC.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be at M-class levels (NOAA Scale R1-R2\nMinor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (NOAA Scale R3\nStrong) for the next three days (25 - 27 Oct).\nEnergetic Particle\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nmoderate levels.The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous\norbit was at background levels.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be moderate for a\nmajority of the next three days (25 - 27 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux is expected to remain below alert threshold levels for the\nnext three days (25 - 27 Oct). However, as Regions 1875 and 1877 move\ninto a more favorable location, an increasing chance for an S1-minor\nproton event exists.\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind speeds ranged from a maximum of approximately 360 km/s to a\nminimum of just under 300 km/s as weak coronal hole high-speed stream\n(CH HSS) effects continued to wane. IMF Bt remained steady near 5 to 7\nnT over the period. IMF Bz remained mostly positive with only very brief\nintermittent negative decreases to as low as -3 nT. IMF Phi remained in\na primarily negative (toward) orientation for the majority of the\nperiod, with brief transitions to positive (away) early in the period.\nAce EPAM indicated a slight enhancement across a few of the lower energy\nchannels at the time of the brief sector change but decayed to\nbackground levels later in the period.\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind speed is expected to remain at mostly nominal conditions\nthrough the period (25 - 27 Oct). A combined arrival of the northern\nflank of two weak CMEs from 20 Oct along with the southern flank of a\nthird CME event from 22 Oct is expected during the early hours of day\none (25 Oct). Wind speeds are not expected to increase substantially\nfrom these relatively slow glancing blow transients.\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to\nactive conditions with isolated minor storm (NOAA Scale G1-Minor)\nperiods on day one (25 Oct) due to the anticipated onset of effects from\nthree glancing blow CMEs observed leaving the Sun between 20 and 22 Oct.\nDay two (26 Oct) will begin with continued CME effects followed by a\nrecovery to quiet to unsettled levels late that day and into day three\n(27 Oct) as conditions wane prior to the arrival of the M9 CME observed\non 24 Oct, expected to arrive outside of the forecast period.\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone", "submissionTime" : "2013-10-26T01:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-27T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "51.20", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2013-10-25 05:59\nRadial velocity (km/s): 691\nLongitude (deg): -20\nLatitude (deg): 3\nHalf-angular width (deg): 3" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-27T03:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-98152.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-26T20:01Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-32.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-98152.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-09-29T22:40:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-09-29T22:40Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-10-02T01:20Z", "maxKP" : 6.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-09-30T03:32Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-02T14:39Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.32", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.80", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-09-30T03:32:00Z\n## Message ID: 20130930-AL-001\n##Summary:\nC-type CME detected by STEREO-B COR2 / SOHO LASCO C3.\nStart time of the event: 2013-09-29T22:40Z.\nEstimated speed: ~850 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 50 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 30/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2013-09-29T20:39:00-CME-001.\nNote that the CME parameters are very rough estimates based on STEREO-B data only due to gaps in STEREO-A and SOHO coverage.\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth and Juno. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth and Juno at about 2013-10-02T14:39Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor). Updates on this event will be provided when available.\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130930_023000_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130930_023000_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130930_023000_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130930_023000_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130930_023000_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130930_023000_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes:\nThis CME is related to a large prominence eruption extending about 40 degrees observed after 2013-09-29T21:00Z in the northwest quadrant of the Earth-facing solar disk.\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-09-30T12:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-03T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 6.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 6.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "22.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.35", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2013 Sep 30 1259 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30930\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Sep 2013, 1209UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 30 Sep 2013 until 02 Oct 2013)\nSOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 30 Sep 2013 10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 01 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 02 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 007\nCOMMENT: A yet unnumbered, flux emerging region in the South-Eastern solar quadrant\nmight develop flaring potential in the coming days. A large filament in\nthe solar north-western hemisphere erupted Sunday evening around 21:45UT.\nThe event was associated with a long duration C1.2 flare peaking at 23:39.\nThe GOES proton flux level has crossed the event threshold (> 10 pfu for\n10 MeV). LASCO observed a full-halo CME. In STEREO-B Cor2, the plane-of the\nsky speed is of the order of 600km/s. In the coming 3 days, we expect\nquiet geomagnetic conditions. The halo-CME of midnight Sept 29/30 is\nexpected to arrive midnight October 2/3.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 037, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 29 Sep 2013\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 103\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 007\nAK WINGST : 003\nESTIMATED AP : 003\nESTIMATED ISN : 032, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\nBT\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n:Issued: 2013 Oct 01 1251 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 31001\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Oct 2013, 1210UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 Oct 2013 until 03 Oct 2013)\nSOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 01 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 02 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 019\nPREDICTIONS FOR 03 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 026\nCOMMENT: The flaring probability is low. Only the newly emerging active regions on\nEast limb and and NOAA AR 1855 have a small chance for a C-class flare.\nNOAA AR 1855 (now at central meridian, northern hemisphere) is a new flux\nemerging region and has developed a transequatorial connection with an\nold decaying active region in the Northern hemisphere. The arrival of the\nCME of midnight Sept 29/30 is still expected for midnight Oct 2/3 with an\nuncertainty range of +/- 6 hours. The CME is expected to trigger a minor\ngeomagnetic storm (Kp=5) early Oct 3. Meanwhile the 10 MeV proton levels\nare still above the event threshold as a consequence of the same event.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 032, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 30 Sep 2013\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 105\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 003\nAK WINGST : 002\nESTIMATED AP : 002\nESTIMATED ISN : ///, BASED ON /// STATIONS.\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\nBT\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-09-30T15:05Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-02T19:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "17.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "34.25", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2013 Oct 01 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 01-Oct 03 2013 is 6 (NOAA Scale\nG2).\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 01-Oct 03 2013\n Oct 01 Oct 02 Oct 03\n00-03UT 0 2 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 0 2 5 (G1) \n06-09UT 1 2 6 (G2) \n09-12UT 1 3 5 (G1) \n12-15UT 2 3 4 \n15-18UT 3 4 3 \n18-21UT 3 4 3 \n21-00UT 3 5 (G1) 3 \nRationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on day\ntwo (Oct 02) and G2 (Moderate) or greater geomagnetic storms are\nexpected on day 3 (Oct 03) as a result of the 29 Sep filament eruption\nand associated CME effects.\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2013 Oct 01 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 01-Oct 03 2013 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 01-Oct 03 2013\n Oct 01 Oct 02 Oct 03\n00-03UT 3 3 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 2 3 4 \n06-09UT 2 3 4 \n09-12UT 2 4 4 \n12-15UT 3 5 (G1) 4 \n15-18UT 3 5 (G1) 3 \n18-21UT 3 4 2 \n21-00UT 3 4 1 \nRationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on days\ntwo and three (02 Oct - 03 Oct) as a result of the 29 Sep filament\neruption and associated CME effects.\n--\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2013 Oct 01 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was very low. A single B-class flare occurred. Region\n1855 (S13E16, Bxo/beta) showed gradual spot growth during the period.\nThe remaining two spotted regions were either stable or decaying. There\nhave been no additional Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME)\nsince the one associated with yesterday's filament eruption.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be very low during the period (Oct 1 - 3)\nwith a chance for a C-class flare.\nEnergetic Particle\n.24 hr Summary...\nA greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit occurred in\nthe wake of yesterday's filament eruption. The event reached the S1\n(Minor - 10 pfu) threshold at 30/0505 UTC. The event reached the S2\n(Moderate - 100 pfu) threshold at 30/1420 UTC. The S2-level event was in\nprogress at the time of this discussion. Thus far, the peak greater than\n10 MeV flux for this event was 182 pfu at 30/2005 UTC. The greater than\n2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate\nlevels.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) levels during Oct. 1 - 2, then\ndecrease to S1 levels on Oct. 3 as the proton event begins to gradually\ndecay. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal\nto high levels during Oct. 1 - 3.\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nACE EPAM data showed a gradual increase in particle fluxes on all\nchannels, likely indicative of the approach of the CME associated with\nyesterday's filament eruption. Other ACE parameters indicated nominal\nsolar wind conditions. Speed was low in the 235 to 279 km/s range.\nInterplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt ranged from 1 to 5 nT, while IMF\nBz was variable in the 4/-4 nT range. IMF Phi data indicated a variable\nsolar sector until approximately 30/0400 UTC, then settled into a\nnegative-polarity (Toward) solar sector for the rest of the period.\n.Forecast...\nAn increase in wind speed is possible on Oct.1 due to a weak recurrent\ncoronal hole high-speed stream. The CME associated with yesterday's\nfilament eruption is expected to arrive around midday on Oct. 2.\nIncreases in speed, density, and IMF Bt; along with increased IMF Bz\nvariability, are expected with the CME arrival. Enlil model output\nindicates peak speeds around 500 km/s associated with the CME passage.\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on\nOct. 1 due to possible coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Field\nactivity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels (G1\n- Minor) during Oct. 2 - 3 due to a CME passage associated with\nyesterday's filament eruption.\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone", "submissionTime" : "2013-10-01T01:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-02T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "19.67", "leadTimeInHrs" : "23.68", "predictionNote" : "Please enter the following information for your prediction:\nENLIL version:\nResolution:\nAmbient settings:\nWSA version:\nCME input parameters\nTime at 21.5Rs boundary: 2013-09-30 03:37\nRadial velocity (km/s): 758.000\nLongitude (deg): 31.0000\nLatitude (deg): 20.0000\nHalf-angular width (deg): 63.000" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-10-01T17:33Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-02T04:42Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.9, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 9.4, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.37", "leadTimeInHrs" : "7.78", "predictionNote" : "Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.\nClick here for full results:\nhttp://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-09-29_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE037/Detailed_results_2013-09-29_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE037.txt\nNASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:\nENLIL version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "STOA", "submissionTime" : "2013-10-01T20:16Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-02T06:15Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.92", "leadTimeInHrs" : "5.07", "predictionNote" : "On Oct 1, 2013, at 4:16 PM, Murray Dryer wrote:\nThere was no metric radio Type II report, so I guessed Vs = 1000 km/s based on Kevin Schenk's Vcme = 896.7 km/s estimate from LASCO and 1097 km/s estimate from STEREO B as a guide for STOA's initial input shock speed ahead of the CME. \n \nSTOA's shock arrival at Earth predicted: 02 October 2013, 0615 UT +/-10 hr. [\"US Gov't. shutdown+1 day\" event]\nCaveat: This blast wave theory-based model is empirical 2D with no consideration of azimuthal variations. Also the uncertainty mentioned above is based on published real time studies in Cycle 23.\n \nI hope that Chin-Chun Wu and Yihua Zheng at NRL and NASA are not furloughed (!) and can run H3DMHD and ENLIL 3D codes!\n \nMurray" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-02T14:56Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-98779.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-10-02T16:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "15.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-98779.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-08-30T02:48:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-08-30T02:48Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-09-02T01:30Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : -22, "dstMinTime" : "2013-09-02T19:00Z", "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-08-30T12:55Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-08-31T21:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-28.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.58", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2013 Aug 30 1225 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA partial halo CME, associated with a C8.3 flare, was detected by LASCO C2 on August 30th around 02:48 UT. It has an angular width of around 150? and an estimated speed of about 1000 km/s. With this speed, the estimated time of arrival at Earth is on August 31th around 21:00.\nA second partial halo CME was detected by LASCO C2 on August 29th around 06:00 UT. Most material of this CME is southbound, but a shockwave might arrive on Earth. With an estimated speed of around 430 km/s this shockwave is expected to arrive on September 2d around 20:00 UT. \n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-08-30T14:15Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-09-01T09:19Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.18", "leadTimeInHrs" : "59.25", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-08-30T14:15:00Z\n## Message ID: 20130830-AL-001\n##Summary:\nC-type CME detected by STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2 / SOHO LASCO C3.\nStart time of the event: 2013-08-30T02:48Z.\nEstimated speed: ~878 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -49/19 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2013-08-30T02:48:00-CME-001.\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2013-09-01T09:19Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (minor).\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130830_062100_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130830_062100_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130830_062100_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130830_062100_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130830_062100_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130830_062100_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes:\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-08-30T15:21Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-09-01T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-22.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.15", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2013 Aug 31 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels. Region 1836 (N11E33, Cao/beta)\nproduced a long-duration C8/1f flare at 30/0246 UTC, which resulted in a\nsubsequent coronal mass ejection (CME) that is visible in LASCO\ncoronagraph imagery beginning at 30/0248 UTC. This CME is expected to\narrive at Earth early on day two (01 Sep). See \"Geospace\" for\nanticipated impacts with this CME. Region 1836 developed trailer spots,\nbut remained stable. Regions 1834 (N13W07, Cri/beta) and 1835 (S10W00,\nDai/beta) remained stable throughout the period.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class\nflare activity for the next three days (31 Aug - 02 Sep).\nEnergetic Particle\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal to moderate levels, reaching a peak flux value of 165 pfu at\n30/1320 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous\norbit was at background levels.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to\nmoderate levels for the next three days (31 Aug - 02 Sep) due to coronal\nhole high speed stream effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is\nexpected to remain at background levels for the next three days (31 Aug\n- 02 Sep).\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative of positive\npolarity CH HSS onset at around 30/1000 UTC. Solar wind speed began the\nperiod steady near 350 km/s and increased to 400 km/s - 430 km/s during\nthe onset of the CH HSS. The total field strength ranged from 11 nT to\n1 nT while the Bz component ranged from +8 nT to -10 nT. The phi angle\nswitched from a negative (toward) sector to a positive (away) sector\nwith CH HSS onset at 30/1000 UTC, where it has remained.\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on day one (31 Aug) with\ncontinued CH HSS influence, increasing to 550 km/s - 650 km/s on day two\n(01 Sep) with arrival of the 30 Aug CME. Wind speed is expected to\nremain enhanced, but to steadily decrease to near-background levels on\nday three (02 Sep) as CME effects diminish.\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active levels were\nobserved during the 30/2100-2400 UTC period due to CH HSS activity.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)\ngeomagnetic storm conditions on day one (31 Aug) with CH HSS effects,\nincreasing to unsettled to G1 levels on day two (01 Sep) with arrival of\nthe 30 Aug CME. Quiet to active conditions are expected for day three\n(02 Sep) as CME influence subsides.\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2013 Aug 31 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 31-Sep 02 2013 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 31-Sep 02 2013\n Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02\n00-03UT 5 (G1) 3 4 \n03-06UT 4 4 4 \n06-09UT 4 5 (G1) 3 \n09-12UT 3 4 3 \n12-15UT 3 4 2 \n15-18UT 2 3 2 \n18-21UT 3 3 2 \n21-00UT 3 4 3 \nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on day 1\n(Aug 31) due to coronal hole high speed stream activity and again on day\n2 (Sep 01) with the arrival of the coronal mass ejection from 30 Aug.\nB. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast\nSolar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was\nbelow S-scale storm level thresholds.\nSolar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2013\n Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02\nS1 or greater 1% 1% 1%\nRationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\nNo significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm\nproduction is forecast.\nC. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast\nNo radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.\nRadio Blackout Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2013\n Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02\nR1-R2 1% 1% 1%\nR3 or greater 1% 1% 1%\nRationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No\nsignificant active region flare activity is forecast.\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "STOA", "submissionTime" : "2013-08-30T19:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-08-31T17:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-31.52", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.30", "predictionNote" : "On Aug 30, 2013, at 3:12 PM, Murray Dryer wrote:\nLearmonth metric Type II, Vs = 1318 km/s estimated for subject flare at 0212UT. Kevin Schenk reports asymmetric Halo CME with LASCO's C2 and C3 average Vcme = 1070.9 km/s. Prompt (moderate) SEP at ACE.\n \nSTOA predicts western flank of shock arrival on 31 August 2013, 1759 UT +/-10 hr.\n \nMurray" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-09-01T00:49Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.68", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-99499.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-09-01T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.50", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-99499.43", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-08-21T05:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-08-21T05:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-08-23T23:55Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : -21, "dstMinTime" : "2013-08-25T21:00Z", "cmeNote" : null, "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-08-21T17:12Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-08-23T23:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.72", "predictionNote" : "Subject: Space Weather Alert - CME\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-08-21T17:12:00Z\n## Message ID: 20130821-AL-002\n##Summary:\nC-type CME detected by STEREO-A/COR2, STEREO-B/COR2, SOHO LASCO C2\nand C3.\nStart time of the event: 2013-08-07T18:36Z.\nEstimated speed: ~610 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -2/10 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2013-08-21T05:24:00-CME-001.\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC\nSpace Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may\nhave a small impact on Earth. Simulations indicate that the\nleading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2013-08-23T23:59Z\n(plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the\nmaximum Kp index is 4-6 (minor-moderate).\nDue to lack of good imaging data the above parameters are\nrough estimates.\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nInner Planets\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130821_101400_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130821_101400_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130821_101400_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130821_101400_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130821_101400_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130821_101400_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes:\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center\nis provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed,\nimplied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that\nthe data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied\nwarranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or\nfreedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be\nerror free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform\nto the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States\nGovernment, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any\ndamages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or\nconsequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way\nconnected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty,\ncontract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons \nor property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or\narose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The\nUnited States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding\nthird party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information\ngenerated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research\nCenter, and distributes it ?as is?.\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research\nCenter does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test\nresults, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information\nfrom the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner,\nconstitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent,\npatent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the\nparties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-08-23T23:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-99717.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-08-23T23:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "0.07", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-99717.02", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-08-20T08:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-08-20T08:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-08-22T18:43Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : -26, "dstMinTime" : "2013-08-23T04:00Z", "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-08-20T12:50Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-08-22T23:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.88", "predictionNote" : "Subject: Space Weather Alert - CME\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-08-20T12:50:00Z\n## Message ID: 20130820-AL-004\n##Summary:\nC-type CME detected by STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2 / SOHO LASCO C2.\nStart time of the event: 2013-08-20T08:24Z.\nEstimated speed: ~915 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 51 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 19/-37 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2013-08-20T08:24:00-CME-001.\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2013-08-22T23:11Z (plus or minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130820_122400_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130820_122400_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130820_122400_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130820_122400_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130820_122400_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130820_122400_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes:\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided \"as is\" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it \"as is\".\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-08-22T23:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-99746.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-08-22T23:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-99746.22", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-08-17T19:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-08-17T19:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-08-20T21:34Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : -18, "dstMinTime" : "2013-08-21T06:00Z", "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2013-08-18T17:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-08-20T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -32, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2013-08-21T01:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-7.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "52.57", "predictionNote" : "1) 201308180000 UT for S05W33 353 km/sec event at -47nT with arrival at 201308222200 and peak at 201308230800\n2) 201308180200 UT for S05W34 750 km/sec event at -32nT with arrival at 201308201400 and peak at 201308210100" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-08-20T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-99791.37", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-08-20T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.57", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-99791.37", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-07-09T15:09:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-07-09T15:09Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-07-13T01:00Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-07-09T20:57Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-07-12T17:53Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-7.12", "leadTimeInHrs" : "76.05", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-07-09T20:57:00Z\n## Message ID: 20130709-AL-001\n##Summary:\nC-type CME detected by STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2.\nStart time of the event: 2013-07-09T15:09Z.\nEstimated speed: ~600 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -10/02 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2013-07-09T15:09:00-CME-001.\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth, Messenger, and Juno. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2013-07-12T17:53Z (plus minus seven hours), Messenger at about 2013-07-10T21:57Z (plus minus seven hours), and Juno around 2013-07-13T00:00Z (plus minus seven hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130709_203400_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130709_203400_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130709_203400_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130709_203400_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130709_203400_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130709_203400_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes:\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-07-10T12:17Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-07-13T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "12.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.72", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2013 Jul 10 1217 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30710\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 Jul 2013, 1207UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 10 Jul 2013 until 12 Jul 2013)\nSOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jul 2013 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 019\nPREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jul 2013 10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2013 10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 003\nCOMMENT:Solar flaring activity mainly originated from Catania sunspot group 26\n(NOAA AR 1787), featuring 3 C-class flares in the past 24 hours. The C4.9\nflare at 6h40 UT on the 10th was the largest one. For the next 48 hours\nC-flaring activity is expected to continue, with Catania sunspot groups 24\nand 26 (NOAA AR 1785 and 1787) as main source candidates. LASCO/C2\ndetected a halo CME at 15h24 UT on the 9th. It was associated with a broad\nfilament eruption (NE to SW oriented) in the northern hemisphere. The CME\nis travelling with an estimated speed of 440 km/s and is expected to arrive\nat Earth on the 13th around 13h UT. A shock in the solar wind speed was\nobserved at 20h UT on the 9th. Solar wind speed currently is at 440 km/s.\nThe magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is around 10 nT, with a\nmainly negative z-component. Geomagnetic conditions are unsettled to active\nand are expected to remain so for the next few hours, before returning to\nquiet conditions.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 054, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 09 Jul 2013\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 125\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 120\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 027\nAK WINGST : 015\nESTIMATED AP : 012\nESTIMATED ISN : 074, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\nBT\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n:Issued: 2013 Jul 11 1206 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30711\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Jul 2013, 1207UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 11 Jul 2013 until 13 Jul 2013)\nSOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jul 2013 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 018\nPREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2013 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jul 2013 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 036\nCOMMENT:Solar flaring activity was eruptive during the past 24 hours. Catania\nsunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 1785) was responsible for the main event, a C2.0\nclass flare with a peak at 00h04 UT on the 11th. For the next 48 hours\nC-class flaring activity is expected to continue. No geo-effective CMEs\nwere observed. Current geomagnetic conditions are unsettled to active (K=3\nto 4) and are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels in the next\nfew hours. Geomagnetic storm levels (K=5 to 6) can be reached from 13h UT\non the 13th due to arrival of the CME that erupted on the 9th.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 051, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 10 Jul 2013\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 085\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 118\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 026\nAK WINGST : 031\nESTIMATED AP : 033\nESTIMATED ISN : 051, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \nNONE\nEND\nBT\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-07-10T17:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-07-13T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "55.28", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2013 Jul 10 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was low. Region 1785 (S12W31, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta)\nproduced occasional C-class flares, the largest of which was a C4 at\n08/2219 UTC. Region 1785 maintained a delta magnetic configuration\nwithin its intermediate spots. It also showed minor penumbral decay in\nthe western half of the region. Region 1787 (S15W09, Eai/beta-gamma)\nproduced a couple of B9 x-ray flares during the period. It showed no\nsignificant changes and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.\nRegion 1784 (S16W76, Axx/alpha) gradually decayed as it approached the\nwest limb. A 12-degree filament, centered near N26E20, erupted at around\n09/1400 UTC. An Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was\nassociated with the filament eruption. An analysis of STEREO coronagraph\nimages indicated a speed of around 400 km/s for this CME.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is likely to be moderate (R1 - Minor to R2 - Moderate)\nduring the period (Jul 10 - 12). There will also be a slight chance for\nan X-class flare (R3 - Strong) during the period, based upon the\nmagnetic complexity in Regions 1785 and 1787.\nEnergetic Particle\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at\ngeosynchronous orbit was at background levels.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at normal to moderate levels through the period (Jul 10 - 12). The\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to\nbe at background levels through the period.\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nACE solar wind data indicated no significant activity for most of the\nperiod. An interplanetary shock arrived at the ACE spacecraft at around\n09/1957 UTC and likely indicated the arrival of the CME observed on Jul\n06. Wind speed increased from approximately 365 to 421 km/s and IMF Bt\nincreased from 10 to 18 nT with the shock arrival.\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind speed and IMF Bt are expected to remain enhanced during Jul\n10 as the CME passage continues, along with fluctuations in IMF Bz. A\ngradual recovery from CME effects is expected to occur on Jul 11. A\nreturn to nominal solar wind conditions is expected on Jul 12.\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.\n.Forecast...\nGeomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to quiet to active\nlevels during Jul 10 - 11, with a slight chance for minor storm levels\n(G1 - Minor), due to passages from the CMEs observed on Jul 06 and Jul\n07. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on Jul 12,\nwith a chance for unsettled levels, as CME effects subside. Today's\nEarth-directed CME is not expected to significantly affect the field\nduring the forecast period.\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2013 Jul 12 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 12-Jul 14 2013 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 12-Jul 14 2013\n Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14\n00-03UT 2 1 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 3 1 5 (G1)\n06-09UT 2 1 5 (G1)\n09-12UT 2 1 4 \n12-15UT 1 1 3 \n15-18UT 1 4 3 \n18-21UT 2 4 3 \n21-00UT 3 5 (G1) 2 \nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 13 and 14 July\ndue to a transient CME expected to arrive at Earth late on the 13th." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-07-13T05:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.66667, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.95", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-100723.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-07-13T11:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.00", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-100723.93", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-06-28T01:54:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-06-28T01:54Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-06-30T10:40Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-06-28T12:34Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-07-01T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "13.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.10", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2013 Jun 28 1234 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30628\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Jun 2013, 1206UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 28 Jun 2013 until 30 Jun 2013)\nSOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Quiet\nPREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jun 2013 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 026\nPREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jun 2013 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 019\nPREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jun 2013 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 007\nCOMMENT:Solar activity has been eruptive during the past 24 hours, featuring three\nC flares, from NOAA AR 11777 and 11778. The brightest flare was a C7.3\nflare released by NOAA AR 11778 with peak time at 03:37 UT on June 28. More\nC flares are possible within the next 48 hours, with a chance for an M\nflare. NOAA AR 11777 released two CMEs (observed by LASCO C2 at 20:37 on\nJune 27 and 02:00 on June 28). The first CME is not expected to be geo-\neffective, while there is a slight chance for a glancing blow from the\nsecond CME on July 1st. ACE detected a shock in the solar wind at 13:53 UT\non June 27, probably due to some unidentified CME. The solar wind speed\njumped from about 380 km/s to around 460 km/s, and has currently decreased\nagain to 365 km/s. The IMF jumped from 3 to 8 nT, has subsequently further\nrisen to 12 nT near 2h UT on June 28, and has since been gradually\ndecreasing, with current values around 9 nT. Geomagnetic activity was at\nquiet to active levels (K Dourbes between 1 and 4) during the past 24\nhours. Quiet to active conditions (K Dourbes " }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-06-28T17:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-06-30T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.95", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2013 Jun 30 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nGeospace\n...\n.Forecast...\nGeomagnetic field activity is expected to begin at unsettled to active\nlevels. A CME which erupted on 28 June between 0129-0250 UTC is\nexpected to bring minor storm conditions around midday on day one (30\nJun). This activity should be short lived and conditions should begin a\nsteady decline back to quiet to unsettled levels by midday on day two\n(01 Jul) and generally quiet levels by day three (02 Jul).\n...\n--\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 30-Jul 02 2013\n Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02\n00-03UT 4 4 2 \n03-06UT 3 4 1 \n06-09UT 5 (G1) 3 1 \n09-12UT 4 2 1 \n12-15UT 3 1 1 \n15-18UT 3 1 1 \n18-21UT 4 1 1 \n21-00UT 4 2 1 \n--\nhttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-06-28T19:23Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-06-30T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.28", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-06-28T19:23:00Z\n## Message ID: 20130628-AL-001\n##Summary:\nO-type CME detected by STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2 / SOHO LASCO C3.\nStart time of the event: 2013-06-28T01:54Z.\nEstimated speed: ~1200 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 35/-39 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2013-06-28T01:54:00-CME-001.\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that there is a slight chance for a CME flank impact at Earth roughly around 2013-06-30T12:00Z.\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130628_012500_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130628_012500_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130628_012500_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130628_012500_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130628_012500_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130628_012500_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes:\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2013-06-29T19:24Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-07-01T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -31, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2013-07-01T23:59Z", "differenceInHrs" : "27.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.27", "predictionNote" : "estimated CME arrival from small flare/CME at S19W21 with a derived velocity of 505 km/s that will result in a G1 level event. flare occurred June 28, 2013 (2013/179) at 03UT +/- 1 hour" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-06-30T21:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "10.83", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-101026.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-06-30T18:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "7.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-101026.27", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-06-21T03:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-06-21T03:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-06-23T03:45Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : null, "dstMinTime" : null, "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-06-21T15:01Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-06-22T10:17Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-17.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "36.73", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC Enlil settings:\nEnlil version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-06-21T15:01:00Z\n## Message ID: 20130621-AL-002\n##Summary:\nR-type CME detected by STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2 / SOHO LASCO C3.\nStart time of the event: 2013-06-21T03:24Z.\nEstimated speed: ~2172 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 80 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -70/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2013-06-21T03:24:00-CME-001.\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Messenger, STEREO B, Spitzer, and Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Messenger at about 2013-06-21T14:33Z, STEREO B at about 2013-06-22T05:48Z, Spitzer at about 2013-06-22T02:55Z and Earth at about 2013-06-22T10:17Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-7 (moderate to strong).\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130621_044300_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130621_044300_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130621_044300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130621_044300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130621_044300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130621_044300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes:\nThis CME is associated with the M2.9 class solar flare starting at 2013-06-21T02:30Z from active region 1777 and the ongoing SEP event detected at STEREO B starting at 2013-06-21T06:09Z (see alert 20130621-AL-001).\nSCORE CME typification system:\nS-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC-type: Common 500-999 km/s\nO-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s\nR-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s\nER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nhttp://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-06-22T12:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-06-23T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 4.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "8.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "15.25", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2013 Jun 22 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n...\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to continued CH\nHSS influence.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to remain at predominately unsettled\nto active levels for the first half of day one (22 Jun), decreasing to\nquiet to unsettled levels for the latter half of day one and through \nearly day two (23 Jun) as CH HSS effects subside. Quiet to active\nconditions are expected beginning late on 23 June due to effects from a\npossible glancing blow from the CME associated with yesterday's M2\nflare. Effects are expected to continue with a chance for isolated minor\nstorm (NOAA Scale G1) periods on day three (24 Jun).\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2013 Jun 22 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 22-Jun 24 2013 is 4 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 22-Jun 24 2013\n Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24\n00-03UT 4 1 4 \n03-06UT 3 1 3 \n06-09UT 3 1 3 \n09-12UT 2 1 3 \n12-15UT 3 3 3 \n15-18UT 2 3 3 \n18-21UT 3 4 4 \n21-00UT 3 4 4 \nRationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. \nActive conditions (less than G1) are expected on days 2 and 3 (23-24\nJune).\n..." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-06-22T23:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-101201.18", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-06-22T23:08Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.5, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.62", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-101201.18", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-05-22T13:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-05-22T13:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-05-24T17:35Z", "maxKP" : 5.0, "dstMin" : -55, "dstMinTime" : "2013-05-25T08:00Z", "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-05-22T17:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-25T17:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "23.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "48.12", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2013 May 22 1728 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA M5 flare was detected peaking around 13:32 UT on May 22d. It is associated with a rise for all proton levels up to 50 MeV above the 10.0 pfu treshold. A CME was detected by LASCO C3 around 15:00 UT, but there is still a data gap. From the available information the CME has an angular width of around 120 degrees and a speed around 1000 km/s. Based on this data the CME will reach Earth on May 25th around 17:00 UT. Active (K >= 4) to storm (K >= 5) geomagnetic conditions are expected.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "STOA", "submissionTime" : "2013-05-22T18:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-23T23:26Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-18.15", "leadTimeInHrs" : "47.00", "predictionNote" : "On May 22, 2013, at 2:45 PM, Murray Dryer wrote:\nSagamore Hill reported (NOAA Edited Events) a metric Type II radio drift, 54-25 MHz with an estimated coronal shock speed, Vs = 1962 km/s. Mike Kaiser reported intense Type II drifts (continuation of same shock?) from 6 - 0.3 Mhz (this writer's interpretation) from both STEREO A&B from this LDE solar flare. No CME information available at this time. Using Sag Hill's Vs estimate, STOA predicts shock arrrival at Earth (far eastern flank) at 2326 UT +/-10hr, 23 May 2013.\n \nCaveat: STOA's 2D empirical/theory-based model does not consider preexisting events or ambient solar wind plasma or IMF variability. See ENLIL or 3DMHD (NOAA/SWPC or NRL sites) for ensemble predictions.\n \nMurray Dryer" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "BHV", "submissionTime" : "2013-05-22T18:59Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-24T15:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.66, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.60", "predictionNote" : "From: Volker Bothmer \nSubject: new forecast\nDate: May 22, 2013 2:59:37 PM EDT\nMay 22, 2013\nA fast CME was observed by SOHO and STEREO at about 2 p.m. UT. Its onset \nwas associated with an X-ray flare of M-intensity starting at 12:30 UT \nat N13W75 and a solar proton event. The estimated arrival time of the \nCME flank is 15:30 UT on 24 May 2013. This corresponds to 17:30 UT local \ntime in mid Europe. The expected speed at L1 is 800 km/s and its \ngeomagnetic impact is estimated to be in the range Kp 6-8-. The CME \nmagnetic field is modeled NSE so that the peak of the storm may occur \nnear midnight of May 24 yielding chances to watch aurorae in northern \nEurope and southern Scandinavia. A very strong storm however is not very \nlikely because of the western position of the CME source region.\nCheers, Volker" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-05-22T19:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-25T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 3.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "18.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.28", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-05-22T19:18:00Z\n## Message ID: 20130522-AL-004\n## Summary:\nUpdate on CME with ID 2013-05-22T13:24:00-CME-001 (see alert 20130522-AL-003). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME will catch up to an earlier CME (starting on 2012-05-22T09:12Z, see parameters below) and the leading edge of both CMEs will reach STEREO A at about 2013-05-24T08:07Z (plus minus 7 hours). The CMEs may possibly have a glancing blow at Earth at about 2013-05-25T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) but no major geomagnetic storm activity is expected. The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor).\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130522_144700_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130522_144700_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130522_144700_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130522_144700_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130522_144700_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130522_144700_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nCME parameters:\nC-type CME detected by STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2 / SOHO LASCO C3.\nStart time of the event: 2013-05-22T09:12Z. (SOHO LASCO C2)\nEstimated speed: ~650 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 78/25 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2013-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001.\nO-type CME detected by STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2 / SOHO LASCO C3.\nStart time of the event: 2013-05-22T13:24Z. (STEREO-A COR2)\nEstimated speed: ~1200 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 60 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): 80/10 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.\nActivity ID: 2013-05-22T13:24:00-CME-001.\n## Notes:\nThe flare with activity ID 2013-05-22T12:30:00-FLR-001 has a GOES X-ray flare class of M5.0, the M7.3 and M6.0 values were estimates from the SDO/EVE proxy while GOES data was unavailable.\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center \nNOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This \"Experimental Research Information\" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-05-22T21:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-24T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "43.87", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2013 May 24 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nA. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast\nThe greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA\nScale levels).\nThe greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 24-May 26 2013 is 5 (NOAA Scale\nG1).\nNOAA Kp index breakdown May 24-May 26 2013\n May 24 May 25 May 26\n00-03UT 2 4 2 \n03-06UT 3 4 3 \n06-09UT 3 3 2 \n09-12UT 2 3 2 \n12-15UT 2 3 2 \n15-18UT 3 3 2 \n18-21UT 4 2 2 \n21-00UT 5 (G1) 3 3 \nRationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on day 1 (24 May)\nassociated with the 22 May CME.\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2013 May 24 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at low levels. The largest flares of the period were\na C3/Sf at 23/1450 UTC and a C3 at 23/1847 UTC, both from Region\n1756 (S20E22, Ehi/beta-gamma). A few low-level C-class flares were\nobserved from old Region 1736 (S08, L=139), still behind the eastern\nlimb and due to return on day one (24 May). Region 1756 showed slight\ngrowth early in the period, but began to show slight decay in the\ntrailer spot area at the time of this writing. Region 1755 (N10E32,\nDsi/beta-gamma) continued to show a slight decay trend, especially in\nthe trailer spot area. The other regions on the disk were either stable\nor decaying. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were\nobserved during the period.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares\nand a slight chance for X-class flares for the next three days (24 - 26\nMay).\nEnergetic Particle\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began in\nNOAA Scale S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm conditions, but continued\nto decrease throughout the period, decreasing to NOAA Scale S1 (Minor)\nconditions at 24/0435 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at\ngeosynchronous orbit remains contaminated by the recent proton event and\nwere unreliable since 22/1420 UTC.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above NOAA\nScale S1 (Minor) thresholds for day one (24 May), and likely into the\nfirst part of day two (25 May). There is a chance for a greater than 10\nMeV proton event on day three (26 May). The greater than 2 MeV electron\nflux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to have unreliable readings until\nthe greater than 10 MeV proton flux returns to near-background values.\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind speed, measured at ACE, ranged from 400 km/s to 500 km/s. \nTotal magnetic field strength ranged from 4 nT to 8 nT while the Bz\ncomponent ranged from +6 nT to -6 nT. The phi angle remained in a\nnegative (toward) solar sector. ACE/SWEPAM data were suspect due to\nproton contamination until around 23/1700 UTC, when the sensors began to\nrecover.\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind speeds are expected to become enhanced by mid to late day one\n(24 May) due to a glancing blow from the 22 May partial-halo CME. \nConditions are expected to continue to be enhanced on days two and three\n(25-26 May), due to a combination of continued CME effects followed by a\ncoronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through the\nfirst half of day one (24 May). By mid to late on day one, a glancing\nblow from the 22 May CME is expected to impact the geomagnetic field\ncausing unsettled to active conditions with a chance for NOAA Scale G1\n(Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions. Unsettled to active levels are\nexpected to persist into day two (25 May) as CME effects wane and CH HSS\neffects begin. CH HSS effects are expected on day three (26 May),\ncausing predominately quiet to unsettled levels." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-24T20:11Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.33333, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.665, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "2.60", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-101907.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-24T15:30Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 4.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 5.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.08", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-101907.35", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-05-17T09:24:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-05-17T09:24Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-05-19T22:20Z", "maxKP" : 4.0, "dstMin" : -20, "dstMinTime" : "2013-05-20T23:00Z", "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-05-17T13:07Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-19T12:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "57.22", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2013 May 17 1307 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #\n# (RWC Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nSIDC URSIGRAM 30517\nSIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 May 2013, 1305UT\nSIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 May 2013 until 19 May 2013)\nSOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)\nGEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)\nSOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)\nPREDICTIONS FOR 17 May 2013 10CM FLUX: 149 / AP: 014\nPREDICTIONS FOR 18 May 2013 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 007\nPREDICTIONS FOR 19 May 2013 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 013\nCOMMENT:Two M-class flares in past 24h, both from NOAA AR 1748. The first one\noccurred on May 16 at 21:53 UT, with intensity M1.3. The second flare was\nan M3.2 and peaked at 08:57 UT on May 17. This AR has still potential for\nproducing X class flares. It maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic\nconfiguration, even though some fragmentation is seen in the trailing\nregion and there are some indications that polarities are separating within\nthe delta spot penumbra. The M3.2 flare of today was related to radio\nbursts and a CME. SWAP detected clear dimmings and an EIT wave around NOAA\nAR1748. There are no LACO data available yet, but a CME is indeed seen in\nSTEREO COR2 data, it can be Earth directed. The speed in COR2-B is\ncalculated to be 1300 km/s, making a possible arrival to the Earth on May\n19 around noon. Protons levels (10MeV) are still above threshold, stable\naround 3 protons/cm2-s-sr. Geomagnetic conditions have been unsettled to\nactive, due to long lasting periods of slow solar wind with sustained mild\nnegative Bz (around -5nT). These are not related to the arrival of the CME\nof May 15, which is still not visible in ACE data, and may still arrive\nlater today and produce storm levels (estimated max K = 6). As a reminder,\nthis series of CMEs related to AR 1748 had a source region within 30\ndegrees of the solar limb, which reduces their possibility of arrival to\nthe Earth to around 30%.\nTODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 124, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.\nSOLAR INDICES FOR 16 May 2013\nWOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///\n10CM SOLAR FLUX : 145\nAK CHAMBON LA FORET : 028\nAK WINGST : 024\nESTIMATED AP : 023\nESTIMATED ISN : 142, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.\nNOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY\nDAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES \n17 0843 0857 0919 N12E57 M3.2 2B 450 75/1748 IV/2II/2 \nEND\nBT\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-05-17T17:03Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-19T11:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.35", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.28", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-05-17T17:03:00Z\n## Message ID: 20130517-AL-002\n## Summary:\nUpdate on CME with ID 2013-05-17T09:24:00-CME-001 (see alert 20130517-AL-001). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact the Earth and Spitzer. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Spitzer at 2013-05-19T02:56Z and the Earth at about 2013-05-19T11:59Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-6 (minor to moderate).\nUpdated CME parameters:\nEstimated speed: ~1300 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 55 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -36/11 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_115500_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_115500_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_115500_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_115500_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_115500_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_115500_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes:\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-05-17T23:45Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-19T15:37Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-6.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.58", "predictionNote" : "## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-05-17T22:45:00Z\n## Message ID: 20130517-AL-003\n## Summary:\nUpdate on CME with ID 2013-05-17T09:24:00-CME-001 (see alerts 20130517-AL-001 and 20130517-AL-002). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact the Earth and Spitzer. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Spitzer at 2013-05-19T02:09Z and the Earth at about 2013-05-19T15:37Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-6 (minor to moderate).\nUpdated CME parameters:\nEstimated speed: ~1400 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 47 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -40/13 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_112500_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_112500_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_112500_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_112500_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_112500_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130517_112500_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\n## Notes:\nThe CME is associated with an M3.2 class flare (peaked at 2013-05-17T08:57) from active region AR 1748 that has been generating activity over the past several days. \nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2013-05-17T23:52Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-19T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -33, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2013-05-20T07:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-2.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "46.47", "predictionNote" : "http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~sam_ops/current_data/Dst_alert_status.txt\n: Product: Dst_alert_status\n: Issued: 17-May-2013 22:00:01 UTC\n: JDIssued: 2456430.41669\n: Number_of_Data_Records: 1\n: Missing_data: 9999\n: Source: SET Anemomilos (Stream B) algorithm (dst_stream_b_driver)\n# Prepared by Space Environment Technologies/Space Weather Division\n# Contact: spacenvironment@spacenvironment.net\n# http://www.spacewx.com\n#\n# Forecast_summary_metadata:\n# AlertIssued is the alert issue time\n# PredictStart is the event predicted start time\n# PredictPeak is the event predicted peak time\n# EL is the wait time in minutes before issuing another alert\n# GX is the alert level on NOAA G scale ranging from G0 to G5\n# G4, G5: WARNING: is issued when a hazardous event is occurring, \n# is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring. \n# A warning is used for very active conditions posing a threat \n# to life or property.\n# G3: ADVISORY: is issued in active to very active conditions \n# that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution \n# is not exercised, it could lead to situations that may threaten \n# life and/or property.\n# G2: WATCH: is issued when the risk of a hazardous event has increased \n# significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is \n# still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead-time in \n# active conditions so that those who need to set their plans in \n# motion can do so.\n# G1: ALERT: is issued when an event threshold is crossed. It contains \n# information that is available at the time of issue.\n# G0: MONITORING: is issued when the geomagnetic conditions are being \n# actively monitored with information that is available at the \n# time of issue.\n# DST is the predicted peak (deepest perturbation) of event in nT\n# Pr is the % probability of occurrence of event at epoch\n# Sr is the source of forecast (daily Probability (GP or SP), Solar Event (SO), or None (NN))\n# Vel is the velocity of the ejecta leaving the solar surface in km/sec\n# Status\n# AC = all clear (>-10 nT) (G0 monitoring)\n# UN = unsettled (-33 to -10 nT) (G1 alert)\n# SE = small event predicted (-33 to -48 nT) (G2 watch)\n# ME = medium event predicted (-48 to -198 nT) (G3 advisory)\n# LE = large event predicted (-198 to -350 nT) (G4 warning)\n# LX = very large event predicted (-350 to -400 nT) (G5 warning)\n# CID is the Class ID for the event composed of a letter flare class and a numeric magnitude\n# C = small flare class\n# M = medium flare class\n# X = large flare class\n# 0-300 = Xhf magnitude of event\n#\n# AlertIssued PredictStart PredictPeak EL GX DST Pr Sr Vel Status CID\n 201305172200 201305221300 201305222359 60 G1 -030 02 NN 750 UN C008" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-05-18T00:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-19T14:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-8.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "45.83", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2013 May 18 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was at moderate levels due to a M3/2b flare at 17/0857\nUTC from Region 1748 (N12E23, Dai/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with\nthis flare were Type II (376 km/s) and Type IV radio bursts as well as a\n420 sfu Tenflare. At 17/0912 UTC, an associated partial halo coronal\nmass ejection (CME) was observed off the east limb with an approximate\nspeed of 1498 km/s. WSA/ENLIL model results indicate an arrival time of\napproximately 19/1400 UTC. Region 1748 continues to maintain a delta in\nthe leader spot with an east/west inversion line between the\nintermediate and trailer spots. Slight growth was observed in the\nintermediate area of Regions 1744 (N06W40, Dao/beta-gamma) and 1750\n(S09W41, Cao/beta). The rest of the spotted regions remained relatively\nstable or in slight decay.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels\n(R1-Minor to R2-Moderate) with a chance for further X-class (R3-Strong)\nactivity from Region 1748.\nEnergetic Particle\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at\ngeosynchronous orbit continued above the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold\nduring the period with a peak flux reading of 41 pfu at 17/1720 UTC.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto continue at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to continue above the\nS1-Minor threshold with a chance for an additional shock enhancement\nfrom the 17 May CME on 19 May.\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind speed ranged from approximately 350 km/s to 420 km/s with\ntotal field values between 4 to 7 nT. The Bz component did not vary\nmuch beyond +/- 5 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive (away) until it\ncrossed into a negative (towards) sector at approximately 17/1350 UTC\nand remained there until the end of the period. No significant\nsignature of the arrival of a CME from 15 May was observable in\nACE/SWEPAM data, however, lower energy protons measured with the\nACE/EPAM instrument continue to show an increase. This is possibly\nindicative of the continued approach by the 15 May CME.\n.Forecast...\nSolar wind speed is expected to continue at nominal levels with a\npossible enhancement early on day 1 (18 May) due to an expected glancing\nblow from the 15 May CME. WSA/ENLIL model results show another\nenhancement to around 500 km/s by midday on day 2 (19 May) due to the\nexpected arrival of the 17 May CME. Wind speeds and magnetic activity\nare expected to slowly decrease to nominal levels on day 3 (20 May) as\nCME effects wane.\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on\nday 1 (18 May). There is still the possibility of an arrival of the\nglancing blow from the 15 May CME early on 18 May, however the effects\nare not expected to be significant. By midday on day 2 (19 May), the 17\nMay CME is expected to impact the geomagnetic field causing minor to\nmajor storm (G1-Minor to G2-Moderate) levels. By day 3 (20 May),\nconditions are expected to be at quiet to active levels as CME effects\nwane.\nThank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "STOA", "submissionTime" : "2013-05-18T07:51Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-18T20:55Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 10.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 10.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-25.42", "leadTimeInHrs" : "38.48", "predictionNote" : "On May 18, 2013, at 3:51 AM, Murray Dryer wrote:\nDear Colleagues,\n \nR11748 is still busy with an LDE M3.2 flare and halo SME. No metric Type II drift report was reported. So, using Kevin Schenk's SOHO's C2 halo CME's estimated speed, Vcme =1492 km/s, as the surrogate for the coronal shock speed as input, STOA predicts the slightly western flank of the interplanetary shock to arrive at 2055 UT+/-10hr, 18 May 2013.\n \nRegards,\nMurray Dryer" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-19T11:45Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-10.58", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-102022.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-05-19T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.33", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-102022.60", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-04-11T07:36:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-04-11T07:36Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-04-13T22:12Z", "maxKP" : 3.0, "dstMin" : -11, "dstMinTime" : "2013-04-15T03:00Z", "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "ESA", "submissionTime" : "2013-04-11T09:42Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-13T00:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-21.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "60.50", "predictionNote" : "On Apr 11, 2013, at 5:42 AM, Nat Gopalswamy wrote:\nFrom STEREO beacon images (STB/COR2), I crudely estimate an Earthward speed of 1200 km/s.\nFirst appearance in STB/COR2 FOV at 07:39:56 UT at a height of 3.3 Rs.\nESA model predicts a travel time of 41 h.\nEarth arrival is expected on April 13 at 00:40 UT\nIs this AR 1719 return of the one that produced the March 15 CME?\nNat Gopalswamy" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-04-11T11:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-13T06:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "58.70", "predictionNote" : ":Issued: 2013 Apr 11 1130 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nThe M6.5 flare of today was accompanied by a full halo CME first\ndetected in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 07:24 UT. The CME\nplane-of-the-sky linear speed was around 930 km/s (the second-order fit\nshowed deceleration from around 1160 km/s to 800 km/s as the CME\nprogressed through the C2 and C3 fields of view). The corresponding\ninterplanetary disturbance is expected to arrive at the Earth in the\nmorning of April 13. Due to the position of the CME source region\n(Catania sunspot group 43, NOAA AR 1719) close to the solar disk center\n(around N09E12), the arrival of the magnetic cloud is possible, even if\nthe CME presented a strong asymmetry of the material distribution\ntowards the east. If present, the magnetic cloud will most probably have\nleft-handed chirality, with WSE or NWS magnetic field orientations. The\noccurrence of a strong geomagnetic storm (K index around 7) will be\nprobable. The proton flux at energies above 10 MeV crossed the SEP event\nthreshold around 10:00 UT and is still rising at the time of writing.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n:Issued: 2013 Apr 11 0858 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nAn M6.5 flare peaking at 07:16 UT was detected today in the Catania\nsunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 1719), accompanied by a metric type II burst\nobserved by Humain starting from around 07:02 UT. SDO/AIA data\ndemonstrate that this flare was also accompanied by coronal dimmings, an\nEIT wave, and a post-eruption arcade, indicating the eruption of a CME.\nSOHO/LASCO data is still incomplete, but the presence of at least a\npartial halo CME first observed in the LASCO C2 field of view at 07:36\nUT is confirmed. Due to the CME source region position close to the\ncentral meridian (around N07E13), the arrival of the corresponding ICME\nat the Earth is probable. More information on the possible arrival time\nand geoeffectiveness of this CME will be sent around later as more data\non this event will be available.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-04-11T13:38Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-13T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-2.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "56.57", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2013 Apr 11 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\nSolar Activity\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity increased to high levels. Region 1719 (N10E06,\nDai/beta-gamma) produced an M6/3b flare (NOAA Scale R2 (Moderate)) at\n11/0716 UTC. The flare was associated with Types II (estimated shock\nspeed 1370 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, a Tenflare (170 sfu), and an\nEarth-directed full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had an\nestimated speed of 1142 km/s, based on an analysis of LASCO and STEREO\ncoronagraph imagery. Region 1719 showed minor intermediate spot growth\nprior to the M6 flare and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic\nconfiguration. Region 1718 (N22W26, Dac/beta-gamma) showed little change\nduring the period and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be low during the period (11 - 13 Apr)\nwith a chance for an M-class flare and a slight chance for an X-class\nflare from Region 1719. There will also be a slight chance for a proton\nflare from Region 1719.\nEnergetic Particle\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at\nnormal to moderate levels. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux at\ngeosynchronous orbit reached the 1 pfu event threshold at 11/0940 UTC\nfollowing the M6/3b flare. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at\ngeosynchronous orbit reached the 10 pfu event threshold (NOAA Scale S1\n(Minor)) at 11/1055 UTC.\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected\nto be at normal to moderate levels during the period (11 - 13 Apr). The\ngreater than 100 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to\nreturn to background levels late on 11 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV\nproton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to decrease below event\nthreshold late on 11 Apr.\nSolar Wind\n.24 hr Summary...\nACE data indicated minor changes in the solar wind flow. Speed ranged\nfrom 347 to 460 km/s with an upward trend that began around 11/0900 UTC.\nPhi data indicated an Away (+) solar sector during the period. IMF Bt\nranged from 2 to 8 nT. IMF Bz had a range of 7/-5 nT and was northward\nduring most of the period.\n.Forecast...\nNo significant changes are expected in solar wind activity during 11 -\n12 Apr. Today's halo CME is expected to arrive at Earth around 13/0500\nUTC with significant increases in wind speed and IMF Bt expected on 13\nApr.\nGeospace\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet.\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet during 11 - 12 Apr with a\nslight chance for unsettled levels. Field activity is expected to\nincrease to active to major storm levels (NOAA Scale G2 (Moderate)) on\n13 Apr due to the arrival of today's halo-CME." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-04-11T16:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-13T05:57Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-16.25", "leadTimeInHrs" : "54.20", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC Enlil settings:\nEnlil version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME Update\n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-04-11T16:00:00Z\n## Message ID: 20130411-AL-004\n## Summary:\nUpdate on CME with ID 2013-04-11T07:36-CME-001 (see alert 20130411-AL-003). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth and Spitzer. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2013-04-13T05:57Z (plus minus 7 hours) and Spitzer at about 2013-04-14T04:25Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).\nUpdated O-type CME parameters are:\nStart time of the event: 2013-04-11T07:36Z.\nEstimated speed: ~1000 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 55 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -20/0 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130411_103700_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130411_103700_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130411_103700_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130411_103700_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130411_103700_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130411_103700_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nActivity ID: 2013-04-11T07:36-CME-001.\n## Notes:\nThis CME is associated with a M6.5 class solar flare which peaked at 2013-04-11T07:16Z from active region 1719, and an SEP events at STEREO B and GOES (activity IDs 2013-04-11T06:55:00-FLR-001, 2013-04-11T08:59:35-SEP-001; see alerts 2013-04-11-AL-001, 2013-04-11-AL-002, 2013-04-11-AL-003). \nSCORE CME typification system (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score):\nS: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC: Common 500-1000 km/s\nO: Occasional 1000-2000 km/s\nR: Rare 2000-3000 km/s\nER: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2013-04-11T16:20Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-12T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -143, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2013-04-12T20:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-36.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.87", "predictionNote" : ": Product: Dst_alert_status\n: Issued: 11-Apr-2013 15:00:01 UTC\n: JDIssued: 2456394.12502\n: Number_of_Data_Records: 1\n: Missing_data: 9999\n: Source: SET Anemomilos (Stream B) algorithm (dst_stream_b_driver)\n# Prepared by Space Environment Technologies/Space Weather Division\n# Contact: spacenvironment@spacenvironment.net\n# http://www.spacewx.com\n#\n# Forecast_summary_metadata:\n# AlertIssued is the alert issue time\n# PredictStart is the event predicted start time\n# PredictPeak is the event predicted peak time\n# EL is the wait time in minutes before issuing another alert\n# GX is the alert level on NOAA G scale ranging from G0 to G5\n# G4, G5: WARNING: is issued when a hazardous event is occurring, \n# is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring. \n# A warning is used for very active conditions posing a threat \n# to life or property.\n# G3: ADVISORY: is issued in active to very active conditions \n# that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution \n# is not exercised, it could lead to situations that may threaten \n# life and/or property.\n# G2: WATCH: is issued when the risk of a hazardous event has increased \n# significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is \n# still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead-time in \n# active conditions so that those who need to set their plans in \n# motion can do so.\n# G1: ALERT: is issued when an event threshold is crossed. It contains \n# information that is available at the time of issue.\n# G0: MONITORING: is issued when the geomagnetic conditions are being \n# actively monitored with information that is available at the \n# time of issue.\n# DST is the predicted peak (deepest perturbation) of event in nT\n# Pr is the % probability of occurrence of event at epoch\n# Sr is the source of forecast (daily Probability (GP or SP), Solar Event (SO), or None (NN))\n# Vel is the velocity of the ejecta leaving the solar surface in km/sec\n# Status\n# AC = all clear (>-10 nT) (G0 monitoring)\n# UN = unsettled (-33 to -10 nT) (G1 alert)\n# SE = small event predicted (-33 to -48 nT) (G2 watch)\n# ME = medium event predicted (-48 to -198 nT) (G3 advisory)\n# LE = large event predicted (-198 to -350 nT) (G4 warning)\n# LX = very large event predicted (-350 to -400 nT) (G5 warning)\n# CID is the Class ID for the event composed of a letter flare class and a numeric magnitude\n# C = small flare class\n# M = medium flare class\n# X = large flare class\n# 0-300 = Xhf magnitude of event\n#\n# AlertIssued PredictStart PredictPeak EL GX DST Pr Sr Vel Status CID\n 201304111500 201304121000 201304122000 60 G3 -143 02 NN 750 ME C010" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2013-04-11T16:22Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-14T02:40Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 2.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 2.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "4.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "53.83", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by Manuela Temmer submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\nOn Apr 11, 2013, at 12:22 PM, Manuela Temmer wrote:\nResults by using the DBM (http://oh.geof.unizg.hr/DBM/dbm.php)\nInput parameters:\nCME take-off date & time: April 11, 2013 at 10h:55min\nR0=15 Rs, v0=660 km/s, ?=0.2×10-7 km-1, w=450 km/s, Rt=1 AU.\nCME arrival at target (date & time): April 14, 2013 at 02h:40min [+/-2h]\nImpact speed at target (at 1 AU): 550 km/s [+/-50 km/s]\nRegards,\nManuela" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "STOA", "submissionTime" : "2013-04-11T20:18Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-12T21:29Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-24.72", "leadTimeInHrs" : "49.90", "predictionNote" : "On Apr 11, 2013, at 4:18 PM, Murray Dryer wrote:\nSTOA predicts shock arrival 12 April 2013, 2129 UT +/-10 hr. using SWPC/USAF Type II shock speed estimate, Vs = 1370 km/s, at 0702UT, from M.6/2B flare and CME.\n \nTime for another Webb-Howard plot, Dave! \n \nMurray" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "BHV", "submissionTime" : "2013-04-12T15:47Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-14T03:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.33, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2013-04-14T09:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "4.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "30.42", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by Volker Bothmer, submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\nhttp://www.affects-fp7.eu/weather/\nOn Apr 12, 2013, at 11:47 AM, Volker Bothmer wrote:\nOn April 11 around 07 UT SOHO and STEREO detected the onset of a CME near CM. The estimated speed of it is 603 km/s in the STEREO/COR2-B field of view. Using the BHV prediction method yields an arrival time of April 14, 03 UT with an in-situ speed of 500 km/s. Based on the B&S flux rope scheme the CME is predicted to be of ENW (SEN) type. A geomagnetic storm is forecasted for April 14, 03 - 15 UT, with a magnitude of about Kp 7+." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2013-04-12T18:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-13T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -151, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2013-04-13T11:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-21.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "27.77", "predictionNote" : ": Product: Dst_alert_status\n: Issued: 12-Apr-2013 17:00:01 UTC\n: JDIssued: 2456395.20836\n: Number_of_Data_Records: 1\n: Missing_data: 9999\n: Source: SET Anemomilos (Stream B) algorithm (dst_stream_b_driver)\n# Prepared by Space Environment Technologies/Space Weather Division\n# Contact: spacenvironment@spacenvironment.net\n# http://www.spacewx.com\n#\n# Forecast_summary_metadata:\n# AlertIssued is the alert issue time\n# PredictStart is the event predicted start time\n# PredictPeak is the event predicted peak time\n# EL is the wait time in minutes before issuing another alert\n# GX is the alert level on NOAA G scale ranging from G0 to G5\n# G4, G5: WARNING: is issued when a hazardous event is occurring, \n# is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring. \n# A warning is used for very active conditions posing a threat \n# to life or property.\n# G3: ADVISORY: is issued in active to very active conditions \n# that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution \n# is not exercised, it could lead to situations that may threaten \n# life and/or property.\n# G2: WATCH: is issued when the risk of a hazardous event has increased \n# significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is \n# still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead-time in \n# active conditions so that those who need to set their plans in \n# motion can do so.\n# G1: ALERT: is issued when an event threshold is crossed. It contains \n# information that is available at the time of issue.\n# G0: MONITORING: is issued when the geomagnetic conditions are being \n# actively monitored with information that is available at the \n# time of issue.\n# DST is the predicted peak (deepest perturbation) of event in nT\n# Pr is the % probability of occurrence of event at epoch\n# Sr is the source of forecast (daily Probability (GP or SP), Solar Event (SO), or None (NN))\n# Vel is the velocity of the ejecta leaving the solar surface in km/sec\n# Status\n# AC = all clear (>-10 nT) (G0 monitoring)\n# UN = unsettled (-33 to -10 nT) (G1 alert)\n# SE = small event predicted (-33 to -48 nT) (G2 watch)\n# ME = medium event predicted (-48 to -198 nT) (G3 advisory)\n# LE = large event predicted (-198 to -350 nT) (G4 warning)\n# LX = very large event predicted (-350 to -400 nT) (G5 warning)\n# CID is the Class ID for the event composed of a letter flare class and a numeric magnitude\n# C = small flare class\n# M = medium flare class\n# X = large flare class\n# 0-300 = Xhf magnitude of event\n#\n# AlertIssued PredictStart PredictPeak EL GX DST Pr Sr Vel Status CID\n 201304121700 201304130100 201304131100 60 G3 -151 02 NN 750 ME C020" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "HAFv2w", "submissionTime" : "2013-04-13T04:31Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-14T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.80", "leadTimeInHrs" : "17.68", "predictionNote" : "On Apr 13, 2013, at 12:31 AM, Yuming Wang wrote:\nInteresting.\nOur results:\n- CME in corona\n speed: 746 km/s\n Propagation direction: N16E14\n Angular width: 140 deg\n- CME at 1 AU (forecasting)\n Hit the Earth\n Impact distance: 0.4 R_MC (if there was a MC)\n Arrival time: 00 UT on April 14\n Propagation speed: 530 km/s (not speed for leading edge)\n \nMore details see: http://space.ustc.edu.cn/dreams/events/20130411.01/\n \n \nHappy weekend,\nYuming\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------\nDr. Yuming WANG\nSchool of Earth and Space Sciences\nUniv. of Sci. and Tech. of China\n96 Jinzhai RD, Hefei, Anhui 230026\nP. R. China\nPhone: +86-551-63602507\nFax: +86-551-63607615\nhttp://space.ustc.edu.cn/alias.php?user=ymwang\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2013-04-13T08:28Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-13T10:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -139, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2013-04-13T22:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-12.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "13.73", "predictionNote" : ": Product: Dst_alert_status\n: Issued: 13-Apr-2013 07:00:01 UTC\n: JDIssued: 2456395.79169\n: Number_of_Data_Records: 1\n: Missing_data: 9999\n: Source: SET Anemomilos (Stream B) algorithm (dst_stream_b_driver)\n# Prepared by Space Environment Technologies/Space Weather Division\n# Contact: spacenvironment@spacenvironment.net\n# http://www.spacewx.com\n#\n# Forecast_summary_metadata:\n# AlertIssued is the alert issue time\n# PredictStart is the event predicted start time\n# PredictPeak is the event predicted peak time\n# EL is the wait time in minutes before issuing another alert\n# GX is the alert level on NOAA G scale ranging from G0 to G5\n# G4, G5: WARNING: is issued when a hazardous event is occurring, \n# is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring. \n# A warning is used for very active conditions posing a threat \n# to life or property.\n# G3: ADVISORY: is issued in active to very active conditions \n# that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution \n# is not exercised, it could lead to situations that may threaten \n# life and/or property.\n# G2: WATCH: is issued when the risk of a hazardous event has increased \n# significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is \n# still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead-time in \n# active conditions so that those who need to set their plans in \n# motion can do so.\n# G1: ALERT: is issued when an event threshold is crossed. It contains \n# information that is available at the time of issue.\n# G0: MONITORING: is issued when the geomagnetic conditions are being \n# actively monitored with information that is available at the \n# time of issue.\n# DST is the predicted peak (deepest perturbation) of event in nT\n# Pr is the % probability of occurrence of event at epoch\n# Sr is the source of forecast (daily Probability (GP or SP), Solar Event (SO), or None (NN))\n# Vel is the velocity of the ejecta leaving the solar surface in km/sec\n# Status\n# AC = all clear (>-10 nT) (G0 monitoring)\n# UN = unsettled (-33 to -10 nT) (G1 alert)\n# SE = small event predicted (-33 to -48 nT) (G2 watch)\n# ME = medium event predicted (-48 to -198 nT) (G3 advisory)\n# LE = large event predicted (-198 to -350 nT) (G4 warning)\n# LX = very large event predicted (-350 to -400 nT) (G5 warning)\n# CID is the Class ID for the event composed of a letter flare class and a numeric magnitude\n# C = small flare class\n# M = medium flare class\n# X = large flare class\n# 0-300 = Xhf magnitude of event\n#\n# AlertIssued PredictStart PredictPeak EL GX DST Pr Sr Vel Status CID\n 201304130700 201304131000 201304132200 60 G3 -139 02 NN 600 ME C010" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2013-04-13T18:35Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-13T22:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -148, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2013-04-14T08:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-0.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "3.62", "predictionNote" : ": Product: Dst_alert_status\n: Issued: 13-Apr-2013 17:00:01 UTC\n: JDIssued: 2456396.20836\n: Number_of_Data_Records: 1\n: Missing_data: 9999\n: Source: SET Anemomilos (Stream B) algorithm (dst_stream_b_driver)\n# Prepared by Space Environment Technologies/Space Weather Division\n# Contact: spacenvironment@spacenvironment.net\n# http://www.spacewx.com\n#\n# Forecast_summary_metadata:\n# AlertIssued is the alert issue time\n# PredictStart is the event predicted start time\n# PredictPeak is the event predicted peak time\n# EL is the wait time in minutes before issuing another alert\n# GX is the alert level on NOAA G scale ranging from G0 to G5\n# G4, G5: WARNING: is issued when a hazardous event is occurring, \n# is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring. \n# A warning is used for very active conditions posing a threat \n# to life or property.\n# G3: ADVISORY: is issued in active to very active conditions \n# that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution \n# is not exercised, it could lead to situations that may threaten \n# life and/or property.\n# G2: WATCH: is issued when the risk of a hazardous event has increased \n# significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is \n# still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead-time in \n# active conditions so that those who need to set their plans in \n# motion can do so.\n# G1: ALERT: is issued when an event threshold is crossed. It contains \n# information that is available at the time of issue.\n# G0: MONITORING: is issued when the geomagnetic conditions are being \n# actively monitored with information that is available at the \n# time of issue.\n# DST is the predicted peak (deepest perturbation) of event in nT\n# Pr is the % probability of occurrence of event at epoch\n# Sr is the source of forecast (daily Probability (GP or SP), Solar Event (SO), or None (NN))\n# Vel is the velocity of the ejecta leaving the solar surface in km/sec\n# Status\n# AC = all clear (>-10 nT) (G0 monitoring)\n# UN = unsettled (-33 to -10 nT) (G1 alert)\n# SE = small event predicted (-33 to -48 nT) (G2 watch)\n# ME = medium event predicted (-48 to -198 nT) (G3 advisory)\n# LE = large event predicted (-198 to -350 nT) (G4 warning)\n# LX = very large event predicted (-350 to -400 nT) (G5 warning)\n# CID is the Class ID for the event composed of a letter flare class and a numeric magnitude\n# C = small flare class\n# M = medium flare class\n# X = large flare class\n# 0-300 = Xhf magnitude of event\n#\n# AlertIssued PredictStart PredictPeak EL GX DST Pr Sr Vel Status CID\n 201304131700 201304132200 201304140800 60 G3 -148 02 NN 750 ME C002" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-13T10:33Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0825, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-11.65", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-102886.73", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-04-13T08:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.165, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-14.20", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-102886.73", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] }, { "cmeID" : "2013-03-15T06:54:00-CME-001", "observedTime" : "2013-03-15T06:54Z", "noArrivalObserved" : false, "arrivalTime" : "2013-03-17T05:28Z", "maxKP" : 6.33, "dstMin" : -132, "dstMinTime" : "2013-03-17T21:00Z", "cmeNote" : "", "predictions" : [ { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-03-15T11:43Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-03-16T20:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 6.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-9.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "41.75", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)\n(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)\n--\nSummary:\nv ~ 1399 km/s \narrival estimates: 2013-03-16 1800-2100UT and Late on 16 Mar to early on 17 Mar\nKp: Late on day 1 to early on day 2 (17 Mar) the 15 March CME is expected to arrive bringing minor storm conditions (NOAA Scale G1) which are predicted to increase to major storm (NOAA Scale G2) conditions with severe storm (NOAA Scale G3) possible at high latitudes. \nDetail:\n--\nIssued: 2013 Mar 16 1230 UTC\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 16-Mar 18 2013\n Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18\n00-03UT 3 6 (G2) 4 \n03-06UT 3 6 (G2) 4 \n06-09UT 3 5 (G1) 3 \n09-12UT 2 4 3 \n12-15UT 2 4 2 \n15-18UT 2 3 2 \n18-21UT 3 3 2 \n21-00UT 4 3 2 \nRationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to\nunsettled for the majority of day 1 (16 Mar). Late on day 1 to early on\nday 2 (17 Mar) the 15 March CME is expected to arrive bringing minor\nstorm conditions (NOAA Scale G1) which are predicted to increase to\nmajor storm (NOAA Scale G2) conditions with severe storm (NOAA Scale G3)\npossible at high latitudes. By day 3 (18 Mar), conditions are expected\nto be at quiet to active levels as CME effects wane.\n--\nIssued: 2013 Mar 16 1230 UTC\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nGeospace.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for\nthe majority of day 1 (16 Mar). Late on day 1 to early on day 2 (17\nMar) the 15 March CME is expected to arrive bringing minor storm\nconditions (NOAA Scale G1) which are predicted to increase to major\nstorm (NOAA Scale G2) conditions with severe storm (NOAA Scale G3)\npossible at high latitudes. By day 3 (18 Mar), conditions are expected\nto be at quiet to active levels as CME effects wane.\n--\nIssued: 2013 Mar 15 1230 UTC\nProduct: Forecast Discussion\nSolar Activity.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity was moderate. Minor radio blackout (R1) conditions were\nobserved. A long duration M1/1f flare occurred at 15/0658 UTC from the\nvicinity of Regions 1696 (N05W16, Eai/beta-gamma) and 1692 (N09E02,\nHsx/alpha). Images from the GONG H-Alpha network monitor show a\nfilament between these two regions disappearing during that time. The\nflare was accompanied by a tenflare (150 pfu). At 15/0712 UTC, imagery\nfrom the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph showed an asymmetrical full halo CME. \nThis CME was also visible in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 15/0712 UTC. A\npreliminary speed estimate of 1399 km/s was obtained using a combination\nof STEREO and SOHO coronagraph imagery (geometric localization). For\ncomparison, a speed of 807 km/s was obtained using simple plane of sky\nmeasurements from two LASCO C3 images.\nGeospace.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to rise to active to minor storm\nperiods during the day and will likely persist into the early part of\nday 2 (16 Mar). As noted in the solar wind forecast, a coarse estimate\nof arrival is around 16/1800-2100 UTC, suggesting prolonged active\nconditions at a minimum and the potential for minor to major storm\nlevels. A chance for isolated minor storm (G1) conditions has been\nadded to the day 2 (16 Mar) forecast. Refined estimates of the arrival\ntiming and magnitude of today's CME will be possible once additional\nLASCO imagery is received (after 15/1405 UTC) and output from the\nWSA-Enlil model is available.\n--\nProduct: 3-Day Forecast\nIssued: 2013 Mar 15 1230 UTC\nNOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 15-Mar 17 2013\n Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17\n00-03UT 0 5 (G1) 5 (G1)\n03-06UT 3 4 4 \n06-09UT 2 3 3 \n09-12UT 2 3 3 \n12-15UT 5 (G1) 2 3 \n15-18UT 2 3 2 \n18-21UT 2 4 2 \n21-00UT 4 5 (G1) 2 \nRationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to rise to active to minor\nstorm periods during the day and will likely persist into the early part\nof day 2 (16 Mar) as a result of the 12 Mar coronal mass ejection (CME).\nAn estimate arrival of the CME associated with today's long duration M1\nflare is around 16/1800-2100 UTC, suggesting prolonged active conditions\nat a minimum, and the potential for minor to major storm levels. A\nchance for isolated minor storm (G1) conditions has been added to the\nday 2 (16 Mar) forecast." }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Anemomilos", "submissionTime" : "2013-03-15T13:00Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-03-17T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : -139, "predictedDstMinTime" : "2013-03-17T11:00Z", "differenceInHrs" : "-4.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.47", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by SpaceWx Alert Monitor/Kent Tobiska submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\nPrediction was taken from http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~sam_ops/index.html" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (SIDC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-03-15T13:19Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-03-18T13:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "31.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "40.15", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by SIDC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n:Issued: 2013 Mar 15 1319 UTC\n:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\nA full halo CME was detected by SOHO LASCO C2 on Friday, March 15th at\n07:12 UT which was a result of the above mentioned M1.2 flare. This CME\nhas an angular width of almost 360 degrees and an estimated speed of 710\nkm/s. Estimated arrival on Earth is Monday, March 18th around 13:00 UT.\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#\n# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #\n# Royal Observatory of Belgium #\n# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #\n# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #\n# #\n# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #\n# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #\n# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #\n# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #\n# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #\n#--------------------------------------------------------------------#" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)", "submissionTime" : "2013-03-15T14:04Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-03-16T16:59Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : 7.0, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : 7.0, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 6.0, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 8.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-12.48", "leadTimeInHrs" : "39.40", "predictionNote" : "NASA GSFC SWRC Enlil settings:\nEnlil version: 2.7\nResolution: low2 (256x30x90)\nAmbient settings: a3b1f\nWSA version: 2.2\n(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)\n## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )\n## Message Type: Space Weather Alert \n##\n## Message Issue Date: 2013-03-15T14:04:00Z\n## Message ID: 20130315-AL-001\n## Summary:\nO-type CME detected by STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2 / SOHO LASCO C2 and SOHO LASCO C3. The CME is associated with the long duration M1.1 class solar flare from AR1692 peaked at 2013-03-15T06:50Z.\nStart time of the event: 2013-03-15T06:54Z.\nEstimated speed: ~1485 km/s.\nEstimated opening half-angle: 66 deg.\nDirection (lon./lat.): -3/-2 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.\nBased on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Simulation indicates that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2013-03-16T16:59Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8. \nThe simulation also indicates that the CME may affect Messenger and Spitzer spacecraft, with the leading edge of the CME reaching Messenger at 2013-03-15T20:16Z and Spitzer at 2013-03-17T14:49Z (plus minus 7 hours).\nUpdates on this event will be provided when available.\nLinks to the movies of the modeled event:\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130315_090300_anim.tim-den.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130315_090300_anim.tim-vel.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130315_090300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130315_090300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130315_090300_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif\nhttp://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20130315_090300_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif\nActivity ID: 2013-03-15T06:54:24-CME-001.\n## Notes:\nSCORE CME typification system (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score):\nS: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s\nC: Common 500-1000 km/s\nO: Occasional 1000-2000 km/s\nR: Rare 2000-3000 km/s\nER: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s\nNASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer\nData and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided ?as is? without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it ?as is?.\nUse of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.\nThe terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.\nFor questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Other (ips.gov.au)", "submissionTime" : "2013-03-15T23:30Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-03-17T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "29.97", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by IPS duty forecaster Matt/David Neudegg, submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\nOn Mar 15, 2013, at 10:34 PM, David Neudegg wrote:\nHi Dave\nIPS duty forecaster Matt posted this in the daily report\nhttp://www.ips.gov.au/pipermail/ips-dsgr/2013-March/004646.html\nA halo CME was observed in association with this event in SOHO/LASCO \ncoronagraphs. Combined with STEREO coronagraph imagery, analysis \nsuggests that the main part of the CME appears to be directed \nto the east and north, however a significant amount of the material \nis likely directed towards the Earth. This is expected to arrive \nlate on the 16th of March or early on the 17th UT.\nHe's gone for Ap=60 on 17th which is brave. SWPC has Ap=37. I'd estimate 40-50.\nLooks like it will be a fairly solid hit. In LASCO looks like mostly to NE but in ENLIL most plasma\ndensity looks NW of Earth. Either way looks like we will get hit by centre 1/3rd of the front.\nENLIL shows arrival ~20UT 16th.\nCheers\nDave N\nIPS, Sydney" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "H3DMHD (HAFv.3 + 3DMHD)", "submissionTime" : "2013-03-16T00:39Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-03-17T00:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-5.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.82", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by Chin-Chun Wu submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n\nOn Mar 15, 2013, at 8:39 PM, Chin-Chun Wu wrote:\n\n\nH3DMHD predict CME (March 15, 2013, 06:54: COR2A/B) driven shock will arrive at Earth at 00UT on March 17, 2013.\n\nEstimated speed of CME from COR2 of STEREO-A/B is ~1000 km/s.\nSource region of this CME located at N09W02. \n\nLinks to the movies of the simulation results:\n\nhttp://solphys.nrl.navy.mil/users/wu/CME_20130315_1000km_N09W02/D_S7_1000km_N09W02.gif\nhttp://solphys.nrl.navy.mil/users/wu/CME_20130315_1000km_N09W02/V_S7_1000km_N09W02.gif\nhttp://solphys.nrl.navy.mil/users/wu/CME_20130315_1000km_N09W02/V_W0_1000km_N09W02.gif\nhttp://solphys.nrl.navy.mil/users/wu/CME_20130315_1000km_N09W02/D_W0_1000km_N09W02.gif\n\n\nHave a nice weekend!\n\n\nChin-Chun Wu" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "ESA", "submissionTime" : "2013-03-16T01:26Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-03-17T09:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "3.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "28.03", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by Nat Gopalswamy submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n\nv=1000 km/s \n\nOn Mar 15, 2013, at 9:26 PM, Nat Gopalswamy wrote:\n\nDave,\n\nDid you enter the info in the community portal? 1000 km/s implies a \nshock arrival time of 9 UT on March 17 (according to ESA model). ... Gopal\n\nOn 3/15/2013 9:02 PM, David Webb wrote:\nIt looks like this filament erupted on Mar. 15, ~06 UT with the M1 flare. A halo CME and predictions it will hit Earth 16-17, ie, this weekend. Maybe a good candidate for study.\n\nRegards,\nDave\n________________________________________\nFrom: Temmer, Manuela (manuela.temmer@uni-graz.at) [manuela.temmer@uni-graz.at]\nSent: Friday, March 15, 2013 10:37 AM\nTo: minimax24@igam.uni-graz.at\nSubject: MiniMax24 non-flare target\n\nFilament target within ±30 degrees of the central meridian.\n\n\nAn elongated filament is located at N30W10, it spans about 30° in N-S and 25° in E-W direction (2013-Mar-15 09:00UT).\n\n\nFor flare target see:\nhttp://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/mmmotd_latest/index.html\n\nMiniMax24 Wiki:\nPlease contribute data and other information under Community Portal.\nhttps://igam02ws.uni-graz.at/mediawiki/index.php?title=Main_Page\n\n\nManuela" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "DBM", "submissionTime" : "2013-03-16T10:41Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-03-17T10:46Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : null, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "5.30", "leadTimeInHrs" : "18.78", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by Manuela Temmer submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n\n\nOn Mar 18, 2013, at 2:31 AM, bojan vrsnak wrote:\n\nManuela forgot to mention that DBM prediction concerns the ICME\narrival, not the shock. So, if DBM gives 11 UT for the ICME arrival,\none would expect a shock several hours earlier. Thus, quite close to\nreal shock arrival.\n\nBest regards,\nBojan\n\n\nOn Mar 16, 2013, at 6:41 AM, Manuela Temmer wrote:\n\nForecasting with DBM model:\nArrival at 1AU: March 17, 2013 at 10h:46min\nTransit time: 51.52 h\nImpact speed at target (at 1 AU): 631 km/s\n\nDBM input used: CME speed 1000km/s at 15Rs, solar wind speed: 450 km/s, gamma=0.2 \n\nManuela" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "BHV", "submissionTime" : "2013-03-16T12:29Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-03-17T15:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : null, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "9.53", "leadTimeInHrs" : "16.98", "predictionNote" : "(Arrival Prediction by Volker Bothmer, submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)\n\nOn Mar 18, 2013, at 8:50 PM, Volker Bothmer wrote:\n\nJust one comment that we do not predict shock arrival times but CME \narrival time.\nVolker\n\nOn Mar 16, 2013, at 8:29 AM, Volker Bothmer wrote:\n\nOur forecast posted at the AFFECTS website at www.affects-fp7.eu under \nthe Weather button is:\n\nMarch 16, 2013\n\nOn 15 March 2013 around 07 UT a halo CME occurred on the Earth directed \nsolar disk slightly NE to central meridian. It was associated with a \nM1.2 flare. Part of the CME is expected to be directed towards earth. \nFrom the BHV model we forecast its arrival time around 15 UT on March \n17. The CME's speed at earth is estimated to 550-600 km/s. Magnetic \nfield analysis yields a WSE (NWS) LH type CME with peak storm phase to \noccur near the center and trailing portion of the CME. The peak storm is \nexpected to occur before midnight on March 17 until morning of March 18 \nwith expected Kp values of about 7. Polar lights may be visible in \nsouthern Scandinavia. You are welcome to test our L1 solar wind, Kp, \nAurorae alerts provided as RSS feeds (not directly available with the \nSafari Browser). The services are provided through the \"Project\" button \nat the AFFECTS main page.\n\nGreetings, Volker" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Average of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-03-17T06:51Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "1.38", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-103551.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME" }, { "predictedMethodName" : "Median of all Methods", "submissionTime" : "2025-01-07T20:56Z", "predictedArrivalTime" : "2013-03-17T01:00Z", "uncertaintyMinusInHrs" : null, "uncertaintyPlusInHrs" : null, "confidenceInPercentage" : null, "predictedMaxKpLowerRange" : 5.5, "predictedMaxKpUpperRange" : 7.0, "predictedDstMin" : null, "predictedDstMinTime" : null, "differenceInHrs" : "-4.47", "leadTimeInHrs" : "-103551.47", "predictionNote" : "This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME." } ] } ]