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Prediction for CME (2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-01-02T11:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16304/-1
CME Note: This CME is preceded by the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. An eruption signature is visible in SDO AIA 193/304/171, showing some dark filament material rising from approximately S40W15 beginning around 2021-01-02T09:00Z with rising material/opening field lines also visible beyond the western limb in the view of STA EUVI 195. This is followed by a clear liftoff of filamentary material in SDO AIA 304 at 10:45Z, and then significant darkening seen along the entire filament from ~S10 to S40 and W00 to W30 beginning around 11:00Z. The effects of this CME are likely combined with the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: From Lan Jian: This event should be a HSS with CME embedded. There seems to be a sector boundary at about Jan. 5 12UT. The smooth magnetic field rotations concur with the second B pile-up and second Vp increase. I dont see a shock associated with the event. The flux rope part is from about 0 to 6 UT on Jan. 6. It is possible Earth only encountered the CME at the flank.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-01-06T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-01-05T11:36Z
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

% Compiled module: EAM_V2.
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Most pr. speed = 617.0 km/s 
EAMv2 output:
u_r =      675.18
Acceleration:      -0.884741
Duration in seconds:        259969.32
Duration in days:        3.0089041
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Acceleration of the CME:  -0.88 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  445.2 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 05/01/2021 Time: 11:36 UT

Lead Time: 41.00 hour(s)
Difference: 12.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2021-01-04T07:00Z

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