CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001)

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Please enter the full notification:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2021-01-04T21:42:06Z
## Message ID: 20210104-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CMEs with ID(s) 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001 and 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210102-AL-001).  Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-01-05T20:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).


Updated CME parameters are (event downgraded to S-type):

1: Start time of the event: 2021-01-01T22:00Z.

Estimated speed: ~372 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001


2: Start time of the event: 2021-01-02T11:24Z.

Estimated speed: ~626 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 44/-26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001, 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210102_072700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif


## Notes:


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
https://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score


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