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Prediction for CME (2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-01-02T11:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16304/-1
CME Note: This CME is preceded by the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. An eruption signature is visible in SDO AIA 193/304/171, showing some dark filament material rising from approximately S40W15 beginning around 2021-01-02T09:00Z with rising material/opening field lines also visible beyond the western limb in the view of STA EUVI 195. This is followed by a clear liftoff of filamentary material in SDO AIA 304 at 10:45Z, and then significant darkening seen along the entire filament from ~S10 to S40 and W00 to W30 beginning around 11:00Z. The effects of this CME are likely combined with the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: From Lan Jian: This event should be a HSS with CME embedded. There seems to be a sector boundary at about Jan. 5 12UT. The smooth magnetic field rotations concur with the second B pile-up and second Vp increase. I don’t see a shock associated with the event. The flux rope part is from about 0 to 6 UT on Jan. 6. It is possible Earth only encountered the CME at the flank.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-01-06T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-01-06T06:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
CME #1
CME Event ID: A7445
Start Date/Time: 2021-01-02 13:11:00Z 
Latitude: -24°
Longitude: 25°
Half Angle: 30°
Radial Velocity: 244 km/s

CME #2
CME Event ID: A7446
Start Date/Time: 2021-01-02 17:49:00Z 
Latitude: -10°
Longitude: 10°
Half Angle: 29°
Radial Velocity: 451 km/s

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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2021 Jan 04 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2795 (S18, L=321) decayed to plage
as it neared the W. limb.

The CMEs that first left the Sun on 01 and 02 Jan were analyzed and
modeled. The first, slow-moving CME was overtaken by the faster second
CME on 02 Jan. The model runs suggested a reasonable 06 Jan for the
onset of CME effects at Earth; however, due to two interacting
transients along the Sun-Earth line there is an introduction of
additional uncertainty with the arrival timing. Observed onset has the
potential to deviate from the modeling of the event more than usual.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 04-06 Jan.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate on 04-06 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters, measured at L1, are likely to undergo
enhancements from a SSBC followed by coronal hole influence on 05 Jan.
Combined influence from a negative polarity coronal hole and the 02 Jan
CME is likely on 06 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet levels on 04 Jan. An
increase to active levels is possible on 05 Jan due to the onset of an
anticipated SSBC followed by coronal hole influence late in day. G1
(Minor) conditions are likely on 06 Jan due to the forecasted arrival a
CME that left of the Sun on 02 Jan combined with ongoing coronal hole
influence.

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Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 879
Issue Time: 2021 Jan 03 2044 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 04:  None (Below G1)   Jan 05:  None (Below G1)   Jan 06:  G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2021 Jan 04 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 04-Jan 06 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 04-Jan 06 2021

            Jan 04     Jan 05     Jan 06
00-03UT        1          2          4     
03-06UT        0          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          2          4     
09-12UT        1          1          3     
12-15UT        1          1          3     
15-18UT        1          3          3     
18-21UT        1          3          2     
21-00UT        2          4          3     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on Jan 06
due to anticipated CME effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 04-Jan 06 2021

              Jan 04  Jan 05  Jan 06
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 04-Jan 06 2021

              Jan 04        Jan 05        Jan 06
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Lead Time: 76.00 hour(s)
Difference: -6.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-01-02T20:00Z
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