CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2021-02-20T11:00:00-CME-001)

Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2021-02-22T11:22Z and 2021-02-23T03:16Z (average arrival 2021-02-22T20:26Z) for 100% of simulations.
- Mars between about 2021-02-24T00:48Z and 2021-02-25T07:23Z (average arrival 2021-02-24T16:53Z) for 93% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-02-22T05:28Z and 2021-02-22T20:55Z (average arrival 2021-02-22T14:12Z) for 100% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 80% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_arrival_Mars.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_Mars_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076_STA_stack.gif

## Notes:
Ensemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-02-22_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076/Detailed_results_20210220_110000_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX076.txt

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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