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Prediction for CME (2021-03-20T00:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-03-20T00:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16634/-1
CME Note: This arrival was attributed earlier to the signature seen at L1 around 2021-03-24T04:57Z. After a discussion with two ICME experts, it was decided that the second and stronger structure detected at L1 around 2021-03-24T19:18Z was the actual CME arrival. The first signature did not decrease in temperature while the second structure display clear signatures of a flux rope in the magnetic field, temperature and velocity.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-03-24T19:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-03-23T02:49Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]

% Compiled module: EAM_V3.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 470.0 km/s 
Upgraded EAMv3 output:
u_r =      300.810
Acceleration:       1.89483
Duration in seconds:        266480.06
Duration in days:        3.0842599
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Acceleration of the CME:   1.89 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  805.7 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/03/2021 Time: 02:49 UT

Lead Time: 84.13 hour(s)
Difference: 40.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2021-03-21T07:10Z

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