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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-03-21T23:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-03-21T23:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16645/-1
CME Note: CME signature is not clear and it may be combined with a stream interaction region. Arrival time was difficult to select. We discussed it with GSFC ICME experts for clarification. From Dr. Lan Jian: There is a magnetic obstacle from Mar 26 21:35 to Mar 27 14:40, characterized by some non-smooth field rotations, increased B, declining speed, and low Tp. I selected the boundaries based on the sharp changes of total B, but there are boundary layers at its two sides. After it, there is a stream interaction region, in which the fast wind speed is not that fast (less than 450 km/s), and the stream interface is at 22:48 on Mar 27.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-03-26T21:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-03-26T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2021-03-22T22:21Z

Model Inputs:
2021-03-22T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-43.0, Lat.=-23.0, Speed=406.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2021-03-22T11:57Z
2021-03-21T23:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=24.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=281.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2021-03-22T16:34Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
(Glancing Blow) Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-03-26T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2021-03-25T08:00Z (Glancing Blow)

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Note:

Submitted on 2021-03-22T22:37Z by Ethan Robinett

Lead Time: 95.23 hour(s)
Difference: 13.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-03-22T22:21Z

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