CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-03-21T23:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-03-21T23:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16645/-1
CME Note: CME signature is not clear and it may be combined with a stream interaction region. Arrival time was difficult to select. We discussed it with GSFC ICME experts for clarification. From Dr. Lan Jian: There is a magnetic obstacle from Mar 26 21:35 to Mar 27 14:40, characterized by some non-smooth field rotations, increased B, declining speed, and low Tp. I selected the boundaries based on the sharp changes of total B, but there are boundary layers at its two sides. After it, there is a stream interaction region, in which the fast wind speed is not that fast (less than 450 km/s), and the stream interface is at 22:48 on Mar 27.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-03-26T21:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-03-26T14:15Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 77.60 hour(s)
Difference: 7.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2021-03-23T15:59Z
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