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Prediction for CME (2021-03-20T00:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-03-20T00:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16634/-1
CME Note: This arrival was attributed earlier to the signature seen at L1 around 2021-03-24T04:57Z. After a discussion with two ICME experts, it was decided that the second and stronger structure detected at L1 around 2021-03-24T19:18Z was the actual CME arrival. The first signature did not decrease in temperature while the second structure display clear signatures of a flux rope in the magnetic field, temperature and velocity.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-03-24T19:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-03-23T12:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

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From SWPC Forecast Discussion, 2021-03-21T00:30Z:

A partial-halo CME, with PAs of approximately 340 degrees to 135
degrees, was observed lifting off of the ENE limb, in LASCO C2 imagery
beginning at 20/0125 UTC. The source of the CME appeared to
have originated along a SE-NW oriented broad channel in the southern
hemisphere. Coronal dimming and reconnection was observed along this
channel beginning about 19/2000 UTC and continued through midday on 20
Mar. Initial analysis and subsequent model output indicated a possible
glancing blow at Earth midday on 23 Mar.

Lead Time: 47.30 hour(s)
Difference: 31.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-03-22T20:00Z

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