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Prediction for CME (2021-04-10T06:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-04-10T06:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16704/-1
CME Note: The source for this CME was unclear. The latitude and longitude were adjusted for this CME based on SWPC_CAT analysis with 2 coronagraphs (SOHO/STA). A flux rope type signature was visible around 04-15T03:28 by DSCOVR at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-15T03:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-04-15T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 10/2359Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 300 km/s.
Longitude (deg): 19W
Latitude (deg): 9S
Half-angular width (deg): 27 deg.

Notes: Having seen possible signatures of a CME arrival in solar wind parameters this morning & magnetometers, I have reanalysed a CME from 10/11 April, which previously we had passing ahead of Earth. There was a very faint partial halo in SOHO C2/C3. Enlil has an arrival on afternoon/evening of 14th, but background solar winds are too strong suggesting later arrival. 
Space weather advisor: moswoc

Lead Time: -7.53 hour(s)
Difference: 3.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-04-15T11:00Z

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