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Prediction for CME (2021-04-20T00:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-04-20T00:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16759/-1
CME Note: A CME was detected in the east of SOHO C2 coronagraph starting at 2021-04-20T00:12Z. The CME is also visible in SOHO C3 and STEREO A COR2A. The source of the CME was an eruption from AR2816 (S24E23) around 2021-04-19T23:20Z. The eruption was associated with an M1.1 flare starting at 2021-04-19T23:19Z and peaked at 2021-04-19T23:42Z. The CME arrival was predicted to be a glancing blow and a weak signature at L1 by DSCOVR is seen around 04-22T08:50Z. At this time, a magnetic field rotation is visible while the temperature remains low.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-22T08:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-04-22T20:03Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-04-20 06:38
-Time at C2: 2021-04-20 00:12
-Radial speed: 583.0 km/s
-Half angle: 28 deg
-Eruption location: S07E37

Inferences:
-No flare association was found

Predictions for Earth:
-In-situ shock speed: 580.90 km/s
-Shock arrival time: 2021-04-22 20:03 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.87 hours)
-Predicted KP 4

Lead Time: 34.83 hour(s)
Difference: -11.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-04-20T22:00Z

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