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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-04-22T05:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-04-22T05:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16772/-1
CME Note: Associated with an eruption visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 171/193 beginning 2021-04-22T04:21Z, and associated with C3.8 flare beginning at 2021-04-22T04:10 and peaking at 2021-04-22T04:35Z. There is some northeastern deflection apparent in the available EUV imagery. Arrival signaled by sudden rise in Btotal from 5 to 8 nT at 2021-04-2422:24Z, followed shortly by an increase in Btotal to above 10 nT, accompanied by jumps in velocity, density, and temperature as measured by DSCOVR.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-24T22:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-04-25T00:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2021 Apr 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2816 (S24W18, Cro/beta) produced multiple
C-class flares, including a C3/1f flare at 22/0435 UTC. This flare was
associated with Type II and Type IV radio sweeps and a partial-halo CME
seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraph imagery. The CME was modeled and it
was determined to have an Earth-directed component that is likely to
pass Earth on day 3 (25 Apr) of the forecast. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were noted.


Notes:

For more information, see https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g2-moderate-storm-watch-25-april-utc-day.

Lead Time: 54.40 hour(s)
Difference: -1.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-04-22T16:00Z

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