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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-04-26T19:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-04-26T19:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16801/-1
CME Note: CME observed in W of STEREO A COR2 beginning 2021-04-26T19:39Z, faintly visible as a partial halo in the south of SOHO LASCO/C3 by 2021-04-2706:18Z. Associated with a large filament eruption from south Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 304 between 2021-04-26T15:00-20:00Z (with biggest lift around 2021-04-26T18:00Z).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-01T12:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-04-30T23:00Z (-18.0h, +18.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center 
Sent: Monday, April 26, 2021 8:49 AM
To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) 
Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert

This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2021-04-30T23:00:00
time_uncertainty: 18
min_estimated_peak_K: 2
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 10

Lead Time: 96.02 hour(s)
Difference: 13.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2021-04-27T12:49Z

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