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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-05-09T11:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-09T11:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16869/-1
CME Note: CME associated with a filament eruption starting 2021-05-09T10:06Z visible in the disk center in SDO AIA 193/304 (and in the W STA EUVI 195). Clear arrival signature at L1 with IPS at 2021-05-12T05:48Z marked by sudden increase in B total to above 23 nT, a sudden jump in solar wind speed from 310 km/s to 450-490 km/s and increases in solar wind density and temperature; Bz reached negative values of around -19 nT for a brief time.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-12T05:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-12T19:45Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center 
Sent: Monday, May 10, 2021 3:06 AM
To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) 
Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert

This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2021-05-12T19:45:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 3
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 70

Lead Time: 46.70 hour(s)
Difference: -13.95 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-05-10T07:06Z

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