CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2021-05-09T11:23:00-CME-001)

CME Event ID: A7566
Start Date/Time: 2021-05-09 18:17:00Z 
Latitude: -1°
Longitude: 35°
Half Angle: 33°
Radial Velocity: 564 km/s

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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2021 May 11 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2822 (N18E33, Dao/beta-gamma)
was much less active today and did not produce significant flares.
Region 2823 (N21E39, Cao/beta) was also quiet.

The CME associated with the filament eruption that occurred at
approximately 09/1000 UTC likely has some Earth-directed component,
based on its source region and presentation in STEREO-A coronagraph
imagery. Model analysis, while somewhat uncertain based on the lack of a
clear signature in LASCO C2/C3, suggests arrival on 13 May. An earlier
arrival on 12 May cannot be ruled out either, given the low confidence
in the model output.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2 radio blackouts) flares through 13 May, given the history
and magnetic complexity of Region 2822.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate through 13 May and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The IMF was slightly disturbed, likely due to current sheet interaction.
Total magnetic field strength peaked near 12 nT and the Bz component
briefly exceeded -5 nT a few times. Wind speed averaged about 350 km/s.
Phi was often variable between positive and negative orientations.

.Forecast...
Minor interactions are anticipated on 11 May with continued current
sheet effects, and eventually, possible interaction with a weak and
narrow, negative polarity CH HSS. The CME mentioned earlier in this
discussion is likely to arrive on 13 May but could arrive as early as
late on 12 May, given the low confidence in the model initialization
process.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
much of the next two days (11-12 May) until the 09 May CME arrives.
There is a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms on 13 May and
possibly on 12 May if the CME is moving faster than anticipated.

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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2021 May 11 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 11-May 13 2021 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 11-May 13 2021

            May 11     May 12     May 13
00-03UT        3          2          4     
03-06UT        3          2          4     
06-09UT        2          2          4     
09-12UT        2          1          3     
12-15UT        1          1          2     
15-18UT        1          1          2     
18-21UT        1          1          2     
21-00UT        2          4          2     

Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms on 13 May
and possibly on 12 May if the CME is moving faster than anticipated.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 11-May 13 2021

              May 11  May 12  May 13
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 11-May 13 2021

              May 11        May 12        May 13
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help.

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Run time and prediction arrival take from the simulation at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

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