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Prediction for CME (2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-13T19:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16902/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 starting at 2021-05-13T15:42Z north from Active Region 12822. The eruption features a broad dimming region north of the active region. A post-eruption arcades are visible in SDO/AIA 193/171; opening field lines are seen in STA EUVI 195 as well. This eruption possibly has two B-class flares associated with it (B1.1 class flare peaking at 2021-05-13T16:21Z and B1.2 class flare peaking at 2021-05-13T18:15Z). The resulting CME is best seen to the West in STEREO-A COR2 imagery. It appears as a faint partial-halo to the North of SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A flux rope is visible around 2021-05-16T18:36Z and may correspond to the flank of the CME. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla, "This is a kind of Flux rope. The ICME signatures are not so clear, there is no shock and sheath...ICME identification is based on remote sensing expectations. It may be the flank of a streamer blow out or blob."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-16T18:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-16T19:25Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-14 02:43
- Time at C2: 2021-05-13 19:09
- Radial speed: 475.0 km/s
- Half angle: 27 deg
- Eruption location: N10E08
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 548.50 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2021-05-16 19:25 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.28 hours)

Lead Time: 43.60 hour(s)
Difference: -0.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-05-14T23:00Z

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