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Prediction for CME (2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-23T11:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16962/-1
CME Note: Source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E7) at 11:03Z associated with an M1.1 flare peaked at 11:26Z. A large amount of material moving quickly to the west of the AR in AIA 193/304/171 after the eruption. This CME appears faster than the 2021-05-23T09:53Z CME, and caught up to it in the LASCO C2 imagery, and then appeared as one CME in the C3 imagery. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T03:23Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 58.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 4.71429
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 23.02 hour(s)
Difference: 25.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2021-05-26T06:11Z
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