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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-22T16:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16946/-1
CME Note: Ejected material is seen in SDO AIA 193 and 304 after 05-22T15:21Z mostly to the West from AR 2824. ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-25T19:06Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 84.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.33333 - 5.66667
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 20.28 hour(s)
Difference: 16.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2021-05-25T15:20Z

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