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Prediction for CME (2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-22T22:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16954/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a large eruption from AR 2824 (N20E15) at 21:31Z, visible in SDO AIA imagery as well as STA EUVI 195. This eruption is associated with an M1.4 flare. ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-25T14:52Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-23 03:04
 - Time at C2: 2021-05-22 22:09
 - Radial speed: 670.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: N13W25
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 607.00 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2021-05-25 14:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.72 hours)

KP: 4.0 - 5.0

Lead Time: 44.62 hour(s)
Difference: 20.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-05-24T15:00Z

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