CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001)

Note: This CME was simulated together with CMEs 2021-05-23T09:53Z and 2021-05-23T11:38Z, and they merge together in the arrival.

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## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-24T20:17:28Z
## Message ID: 20210524-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CMEs with ID(s) 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210523-AL-002) and newly analyzed CME with ID 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-05-25T04:52Z and STEREO B at 2021-05-26T07:37Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-26T07:37Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
   

Updated CME parameters are:

1: Start time of the event: 2021-05-23T09:53Z.

Estimated speed: ~699 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 22/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001


2: Start time of the event: 2021-05-23T11:38Z.

Estimated speed: ~806 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 25/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001


3: Start time of the event: 2021-05-23T17:38Z.

Estimated speed: ~703 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 27/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001, 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210523_143400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001) is associated with a C2.4 flare with ID 2021-05-23T09:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T09:22Z.

This CME event (2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001) is associated with an M1.1 flare with ID 2021-05-23T11:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T11:08Z.

This CME event (2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001) is associated with a C2.2 flare with ID 2021-05-23T17:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-23T17:05Z.

The source of these CME and flare events is active region 12824, currently visible near N19W11 in the available EUV imagery from SDO.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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