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Prediction for CME (2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-23T09:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16961/-1
CME Note: The source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E8) associated with a C2.4 flare seen best in AIA 304 with some dark material to W of the AR after brightening beginning 09:19Z. A smaller flare and dark material from the same region 08:00Z. The source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E8) associated with a C2.4 flare seen best in AIA 304 with some dark material to W of the AR after brightening beginning 09:19Z. A smaller flare and dark material from the same region 08:00Z. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T01:36Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-23 14:34
 - Time at C2: 2021-05-23 09:53
 - Radial speed: 699.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: N05W22
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 615.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2021-05-26 01:36 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.72 hours)
Kp 4.0-5.0

Lead Time: 59.20 hour(s)
Difference: 27.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-05-24T18:00Z

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