CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-05-23T17:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16976/-1
CME Note: Associated with eruption from AR 2824 (N21E04) at 2021-05-23T17:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 193/171/304. The eruption's EUV signature shows material deflected westward. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T15:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM_V3. ****************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 703.0 km/s Upgraded EAMv3 output: u_r = 427.329 Acceleration: 1.35078 Duration in seconds: 251187.01 Duration in days: 2.9072571 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.35 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 766.6 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/05/2021 Time: 15:24 UTLead Time: 31.20 hour(s)
Difference: 13.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2021-05-25T22:00Z
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