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Prediction for CME (2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-22T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16938/-1
CME Note: Source is eruption from AR 2824 at 06:15Z, with dimming towards the S of the AR. Material moving after 06:45Z to the W from AR. In STA Cor2 it is seen as two CMEs, NW one at 08:23 and SW one at 09:38 (the later might be associated with a C-class flare at 06:45Z). The CMEs are seen as one in SOHO/LASCO C2/C3. CME ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-25T17:45Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

This prediction is based on a 5-CME simulation that contains the CME with ID 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001:
CME Event ID: A7585
Start Date/Time (at 21.5Rs):
Latitude: -6°
Longitude: -28°
Half Angle: 18°
Radial Velocity: 626 km/s
Other CMEs in this simulation: CME Event IDs: A7586, A7588, A7590, A7592

Notes:
Forecast Discussion
SWPC Product Subscription Service
Mon 5/24/2021 8:32 AM
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2021 May 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decreased to low levels this period. Region 2824
(N19W07, Csi/beta-gamma) produced an isolated C2/1n flare at 23/1705
UTC, along with multiple B-class flares. The GOES-16 x-ray flux showed a
decreasing trend in overall x-ray background throughout the period,
however, Region 2824 continued to exhibit a complex magnetic structure.
Region 2825 (N17E47, Axx/alpha) was stable and quiet.

Since early on 22 May, Region 2824 has produced multiple CMEs with
several having Earth-directed components. These CMEs have been analyzed
and consolidated into one model output. Analysis of the 22-23 May CMEs
suggests these events are to arrive beginning late 25 May to early 26
May.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to gradually decrease over the next three
days. Additional C-class flare activity is expected with a chance for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 24 May from Region 2824.
C-class flare activity is likely with a slight chance for R1-R2 radio
blackouts on 25 May. On 26 May, there is a chance for C-class flare
activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels on 24-25 May, with high flux levels likely beginning on 26 May
due to CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speeds were
steady at around 400 km/s until around 24/0000 UTC, after which speed
values decreased to around 350 km/s. Total field strength was in the 2-4
nT range and Bz varied between 0/-3 nT. The phi angle was negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at background levels until
late on 25 May when multiple CMEs from 22-23 May are expected to enhance
solar wind parameters. Enhancements are expected to persist
through 26 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 24 May
through late on 25 May. Late on 25 May, field conditions are expected to
increase to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to the arrival of the 22-23 May
CMEs. Field conditions are expected to be at G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
storm levels on 26 May as CME effects persist.

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NOAA 3-Day Forecast
SWPC Product Subscription Service
Mon 5/24/2021 8:30 PM
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2021 May 25 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 25-May 27 2021 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 25-May 27 2021

May 25 May 26 May 27
00-03UT 2 6 (G2) 4
03-06UT 1 6 (G2) 5 (G1)
06-09UT 1 5 (G1) 4
09-12UT 1 5 (G1) 4
12-15UT 1 5 (G1) 3
15-18UT 4 4 3
18-21UT 5 (G1) 4 3
21-00UT 5 (G1) 4 3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely
due to a few CMEs that occurred over the weekend.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 25-May 27 2021

May 25 May 26 May 27
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 25-May 27 2021

May 25 May 26 May 27
R1-R2 10% 5% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Lead Time: 66.13 hour(s)
Difference: 17.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2021-05-23T17:29Z

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