CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-05-28T23:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17008/-1
CME Note: The EUV wave seen in SDO 193 is very wide and directed to the center disk. The CME is associated with a C9.4 class flare from AR 2824. The CME was first only visible in STA COR2A at 23:23Z, but since the original CME entry the C2 and C3 frames have come in and the CME is first seen in C2 at 23:12Z. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is embedded within a CIR. From Lan Jian: "The parameter changes at the shock soon after 12 UT on June 2 are more than what is expected for a SIR shock, and there are some field rotations after that" possibly indicative of a "CIR+ICME event."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-06-02T12:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-31T18:35Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 22.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.66667
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -54.38 hour(s)
Difference: 41.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2021-06-04T18:43Z
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