CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001)

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2021-05-29T14:29:15Z
## Message ID: 20210529-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2021-05-28T23:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~824 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 62/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe and STEREO B.  The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-05-30T15:00Z and STEREO B at 2021-05-31T18:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-06-01T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210529_031600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210529_031600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210529_031600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210529_031600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C9.4 flare with ID 2021-05-28T22:19:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-05-28T23:13Z and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2021-05-29T03:00:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20210529-AL-001 and 20210529-AL-002).

In the notes in notification 20210529-AL-002 this CME was referred to as CME with ID 2021-05-28T23:23:00-CME-001 due to limited coronagraph images available at the time. The CME ID has been updated to 2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001 to reflect the imagery that has since come in.

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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