CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-28T23:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17008/-1
CME Note: The EUV wave seen in SDO 193 is very wide and directed to the center disk. The CME is associated with a C9.4 class flare from AR 2824. The CME was first only visible in STA COR2A at 23:23Z, but since the original CME entry the C2 and C3 frames have come in and the CME is first seen in C2 at 23:12Z. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is embedded within a CIR. From Lan Jian: "The parameter changes at the shock soon after 12 UT on June 2 are more than what is expected for a SIR shock, and there are some field rotations after that" possibly indicative of a "CIR+ICME event."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-06-02T12:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-31T08:26Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

% Compiled module: EAM_V2.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 824.0 km/s 
EAMv2 output:
u_r =      887.764
Acceleration:      -1.82501
Duration in seconds:        217862.30
Duration in days:        2.5215544
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:  -1.83 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  538.6 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/05/2021 Time: 08:26 UT

Lead Time: 90.33 hour(s)
Difference: 51.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2021-05-29T18:00Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement