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Prediction for CME (2021-06-15T04:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-06-15T04:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17099/-1
CME Note: The arrival for this CME is very uncertain. There are weak signatures of ICMEs around this time, but it looks like it could be more than one.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-06-20T11:21Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-06-20T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-06-15T20:11Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 311 km/s
Longitude (deg): 30E
Latitude (deg): 3S
Half-angular width (deg): 30 deg 

Notes: This CME was associated with a filament eruption near the centre-southeast disc. Very faint in SOHO C2/C3, and Stereo A COR2 diff images. The likelihood is that it will pass behind Earth's orbit (~70%), with a low chance (~30%) of being detected at Earth. With the speed close to background, it may only be the magnetic cloud that is observed, if at all, with Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity.
Space weather advisor: MOSWOC advisors

Lead Time: 89.02 hour(s)
Difference: 11.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-06-16T18:20Z

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