CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-06-29T10:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-06-29T10:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17173/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with an eruption and subsequent EUV wave observed from the unnumbered active region centered near N20E05 on the Earth-facing disk starting around 2021-06-29T05:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: There was no arrival detected by DSCOVR/ACE data.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-02T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates. NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2) Please enter a copy of the entire notification here:Lead Time: 59.42 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2021-06-30T06:35Z
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