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Prediction for CME (2021-07-22T14:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-07-22T14:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17376/-1
CME Note: Visible in the west in SOHO LASCO/C2, STEREO A COR2. May be associated with an eruption from AR 12848 (N20E08), visible in SDO AIA 304/193/171 beginning 2021-07-22T12:10Z, followed by EUV wave indicating a more southwestward ejection. Arrival indicated by weak but sudden increase in field amplitude, accompanied by speed increase and field component rotation. Preceded by brief pileup and temperature increase. Indicates a far flank arrival with flux rope only. This is a weak CME arrival, perhaps combined with a weak HSS arrival, with no candidate CH other than the patchy equatorial bit around W50.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-07-25T18:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-26T13:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

% Compiled module: EAM_V2.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 364.0 km/s 
The EAM version you are running is: v2
u_r =      415.344
Acceleration:      0.123666
Duration in seconds:        344550.47
Duration in days:        3.9878526
t2 is negative
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:   0.12 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  458.0 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/07/2021 Time: 13:42 UT

Lead Time: 30.83 hour(s)
Difference: -18.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2021-07-24T12:00Z

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