CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-08-23T06:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-08-23T06:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17559/-1
CME Note: The CME is a partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is in the NW of STA COR2A. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center seen at 02:00Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. The L1 arrival signature seen by DSCOVR is characterized by a simultaneous jump in SW density, magnetic field and speed (from 360 to 420 km/s), as well as rotation of magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T00:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-08-26T20:25Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17561/1 Model Inputs: 2021-08-23T06:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=393.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2021-08-23T14:36Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-08-26T20:25Z (+- 7 hours) Duration of disturbance (hr) =15.1 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.7 (kp)90=3 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-08-25T05:05Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-08-27T00:00Z STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-08-27T02:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210823_143600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 76.55 hour(s)
Difference: 4.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2021-08-23T19:52Z
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