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Prediction for CME (2021-08-23T06:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-08-23T06:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17559/-1
CME Note: The CME is a partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is in the NW of STA COR2A. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center seen at 02:00Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. The L1 arrival signature seen by DSCOVR is characterized by a simultaneous jump in SW density, magnetic field and speed (from 360 to 420 km/s), as well as rotation of magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T00:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T03:27Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

% Compiled module: EAM_V2.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 393.0 km/s 
The EAM version you are running is: v2
u_r =      445.127
Acceleration:     0.0159381
Duration in seconds:        334281.32
Duration in days:        3.8689967
t2 is negative
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:   0.02 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  450.5 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 27/08/2021 Time: 03:27 UT

Lead Time: 65.42 hour(s)
Difference: -3.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2021-08-24T07:00Z

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