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Prediction for CME (2021-08-23T06:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-08-23T06:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17559/-1
CME Note: The CME is a partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is in the NW of STA COR2A. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center seen at 02:00Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. The L1 arrival signature seen by DSCOVR is characterized by a simultaneous jump in SW density, magnetic field and speed (from 360 to 420 km/s), as well as rotation of magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T00:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T09:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-08-23T15:57Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 375
Longitude (deg): W005
Latitude (deg): N16
Half-angular width (deg): 31

Notes: CME originating from a large filament eruption in NE quadrant. Faint halo in Lasco C2 but obvious in STEREO A. High confidence in speed as confirmed with COR2 speed calculator
Space weather advisor: Jay Merrell

Lead Time: 65.22 hour(s)
Difference: -8.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-08-24T07:12Z

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