CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2021-08-26T15:57:25Z
## Message ID: 20210826-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

S-type CME detected by SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2021-08-24T13:25Z.

Estimated speed: ~454 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -36/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A (minor impact), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow).  The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-08-26T04:52Z, STEREO A at 2021-05-27T18:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2021-08-26T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME might have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-05-28T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).  

Please note that this analysis is very approximate as it is based on limited coronagraph data (LASCO only) and on the location of the eruption in SDO AIA and STEREO A EUVI imagery.
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME 2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210824_205700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif


## Notes: 
This CME event (2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001) is associated with B8.8 flare with ID 2021-08-24T12:03:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-08-24T12:16Z.

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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