CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-08-24T13:25ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17572/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen in LASCO only. Source is a significant eruption from AR 2859 preceded by a B8.8 flare peaking at 2021-08-24T12:16Z. Dark material can be seen moving off the disk in SDO AIA 304 and 193 starting after 2021-08-24T12:03Z and a darkening with an EIT wave can be seen in EUVIA 195 starting after 2021-08-24T12:05Z. Arrival note: There is an increase of B total to over 16 nT, with a period of negative Bz reaching -13nT. There is no increase in solar wind speed at DSCOVR.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T11:42Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T23:41Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 68.75%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -5.52 hour(s)
Difference: -11.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2021-08-27T17:13Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement