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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-08-27T00:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-08-27T00:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17597/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen SE in C2 and later in the W in COR2A, front is too faint to be seen in C3. Source is an eruption in AR 2860 seen at 2021-08-26T23:30Z in AIA 193 (followed by a filament eruption seen in AIA 304).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-08-31T05:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17599/1
Model Inputs:
2021-08-27T00:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-15.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=298.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2021-08-27T11:12Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-08-31T05:30Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =87.3 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 7.0
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-08-29T10:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210827_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 76.87 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2021-08-28T00:38Z

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