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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-08-28T07:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-08-28T07:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17609/-1
CME Note: The source is a M4.7 class flare peaking at 2021-08-28T06:11Z from active region 12860 located at S28E00 at the time of the eruption. This eruption is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO/AIA wavelengths. An EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211 starting around 2021-08-28T06:00Z, propagating northward, followed by a post-eruptive arcade starting around 2021-08-28T07:20Z. A dimming region is visible above the brightening active region during the EUV wave. Some plasma material is also visible lifting off during this eruption shortly after the flare peaks. Arrival characterized by slow magnetic field amplitude rise (reaching only 6.5 nT), accompanied by density/temperature rise, followed by field component rotation, density/tempurature drop, and speed rise. Followed by a SSBC at 2021-09-03T12:12Z, which obscures the later part of the ICME arrival signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-03T06:19Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-01T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

This model run arrival time estimate has been updated due to incorrect inclusion of another fast moving CME from the south-west in the initial run which has since been identified as non-geoeffective, and should not have been included in the initial run.

Lead Time: 99.42 hour(s)
Difference: 36.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2021-08-30T02:54Z

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