CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-07-29T00:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-07-29T00:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17424/-1
CME Note: Partial halo SE in SOHO LASCO/C2, W in STEREO A COR2, both very faint. Associated with a filament eruption centered at S20W10 (near AR 12849), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-07-28T22:01Z. From Lan: There seems to be a CME encounter at about 9:10 19:00 UT on Aug 2, characterized by increased magnetic field strength, some magnetic field rotations (not smooth though), and low proton temperature. The quiet magnetic field on Aug 3 in the region after the CME might be due to the stretching of field lines.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-02T09:03Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-31T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
2021-07-29T00:24Z CME: SIDC sent at 2021-07-29T12:39Z (Thursday, July 29, 2021 8:39 AM) expected arrival time: 2021-07-31T22:00:00 time_uncertainty: 12 min_estimated_peak_K: 2 max_estimated_peak_K: 3 probability_of_arrival: 20Lead Time: 92.40 hour(s)
Difference: 35.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2021-07-29T12:39Z
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