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Prediction for CME (2021-09-04T23:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-04T23:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17663/-1
CME Note: The start time of the CME is possibly earlier than indicated (updated from original time of 2021-09-05T01:09Z). There was missing data in COR2A before the indicated start time. The eruption was associated with a B4.5 flare that started at 2021-09-04T21:06Z and peaked at 2021-09-04T21:33Z. There was EUV wave signature associated with the eruption and visible in SDO/AIA 193. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: No discernable arrival signature was observed for this CME in the avilable data.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-09T21:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-09-05T15:43Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 211
Longitude (deg): E003
Latitude (deg): N01
Half-angular width (deg): 14

Notes: Weak, with no signal on LASCO at the moment. From B-flare of 2864, concurrent dimming and weak EIT wave in NE quadrant. STEREO A only fit, so low confidence. May merge with later observed CME to form united front.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence on behalf of Space Weather Advisor

Lead Time: 60.55 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-09-07T08:27Z

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