CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-09-05T21:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17677/-1
CME Note: The observed CME starts to faintly emerge from the SE quadrant of SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2021-09-05T21:36Z, after which a halo feature becomes visible towards the south starting around 2021-09-05T23:36Z. May be associated with the combined eruptions from AR2865 at 2021-09-05T17:54Z (associated with a B7.9 flare) and from AR2864 at 2021-09-05T18:48Z (associated with a B7.0 flare). (CME activity ID: 2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001). CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A slight compression in magnetic field is detected starting at 2021-09-10T01:32Z and is subsequently followed by ICME features (notable increases in B-field values and large-scale B-field rotations).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-10T01:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-08T22:41Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] % Compiled module: EAM_V3. ****************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 537.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 u_r = 337.191 Acceleration: 1.74708 Duration in seconds: 263120.67 Duration in days: 3.0453781 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.75 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 796.9 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 08/09/2021 Time: 22:41 UTLead Time: 61.03 hour(s)
Difference: 26.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2021-09-07T12:30Z
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