CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-13T10:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-13T10:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17733/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center. It starts around 03:54Z and is visible in SDO AIA 193 as dimming, SDO AIA 171 as moving/opening field lines, and SDO AIA 304 as a filament eruption. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: This IPS signature exhibits a notable change in B-field fluctuations (a jump from 4 to 7 nT in B_tot) and an increase in density from 5 to 12 cm^-3. Field rotations are subsequently observed with corresponding drops in temperature, suggesting the passage of one or more flux ropes. This signature later exhibits a southward B_z component with a peak magnitude of 13 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-17T01:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-16T22:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 2.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17735/1
Model Inputs:
2021-09-13T10:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=394.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2021-09-13T18:19Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-09-16T22:30Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=2

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-17T03:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210913_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 75.57 hour(s)
Difference: 2.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chigomezyo Ngwira (M2M Office) on 2021-09-13T21:55Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement