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Prediction for CME (2021-09-13T10:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-13T10:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17733/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center. It starts around 03:54Z and is visible in SDO AIA 193 as dimming, SDO AIA 171 as moving/opening field lines, and SDO AIA 304 as a filament eruption. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: This IPS signature exhibits a notable change in B-field fluctuations (a jump from 4 to 7 nT in B_tot) and an increase in density from 5 to 12 cm^-3. Field rotations are subsequently observed with corresponding drops in temperature, suggesting the passage of one or more flux ropes. This signature later exhibits a southward B_z component with a peak magnitude of 13 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-17T01:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-17T09:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-09-13T18:56Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 380
Longitude (deg): W12
Latitude (deg): N07
Half-angular width (deg): 26 

Notes: Low confidence, based largely off shock from LASCO C2 difference imagery and then fit to STEREO A plasma signal
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 58.13 hour(s)
Difference: -7.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-09-14T15:21Z

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