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Prediction for CME (2021-09-13T10:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-13T10:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17733/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center. It starts around 03:54Z and is visible in SDO AIA 193 as dimming, SDO AIA 171 as moving/opening field lines, and SDO AIA 304 as a filament eruption. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: This IPS signature exhibits a notable change in B-field fluctuations (a jump from 4 to 7 nT in B_tot) and an increase in density from 5 to 12 cm^-3. Field rotations are subsequently observed with corresponding drops in temperature, suggesting the passage of one or more flux ropes. This signature later exhibits a southward B_z component with a peak magnitude of 13 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-17T01:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-17T01:35Z (-1.3h, +0.6h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B. For 40 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO B between about 2021-09-17T01:28Z and 2021-09-17T09:24Z (average arrival 2021-09-17T05:13Z) for 87% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-09-17T00:27Z and 2021-09-17T02:11Z (average arrival 2021-09-17T01:35Z) for 15% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 99% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to below minor).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091_arrival_STB.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091_STB_stack.gif

## Notes:
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-09-14_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091/Detailed_results_20210913_175500_ncmes1_sims40_HILOX091.txt

Lead Time: 49.72 hour(s)
Difference: -0.10 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2021-09-14T23:46Z

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