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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-22T07:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-22T07:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17801/-1
CME Note: Faint CME only seen COR2A in SW. Possible source: filament eruption at ~S25W12 seen in AIA 304 ~2021-09-22T05:00Z, accompanied by dimming and post-eruptive loops(AIA 193 and EUVIA 195). Originally logged in CME Scoreboard with observed time of 2021-09-22T05:0Z, changed to reflect DONKI entry time 2021-09-22T07:53Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T12:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-09-22T17:06Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 340
Longitude (deg): W005
Latitude (deg): S10
Half-angular width (deg): 23

Notes: Possible earth directed CME, only really visible on Stereo A imagery with very little if any evidence on LASCO C2 or C3. Low confidence in its East/West orientation though moderate in N/S. Perhaps orginates from reconfiguration of CH03/- during second half of UTC morning of 22 September. Very low confidence given uncertain source and lack of corroboration from Lasco. CME front bifurcates en route, perhaps merging with any CIR leading CH05/+ due at similar time. Leads to low confidence in onset, 2021-09-26T12:00Z taken as mean.

Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence on behalf of Space Weather Advisor

Lead Time: 68.62 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-09-23T15:23Z

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