CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-01-14T13:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-01-14T13:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18827/-1
CME Note: Visible in SW of STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3, moving quickly through the FOV. Associated with a large eruption from AR 12925 (S33W40), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-01-14T12:54Z. UPDATE: There appears to be a weak component rotation of two components of magnetic field at around 2022-01-17T14:00Z, preceded by drop in density/temperature. However, according to Lan, there is no sign of a shock and there appears to be no ICME arrival on 2022-01-17.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-16T20:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note:
Velocity : 1200 km/s Angular width : 82 degrees direction : S07W19Lead Time: 11.27 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2022-01-16T08:44Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement