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Prediction for CME (2022-01-16T20:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-16T20:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18867/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a C2.6 flare from active region 12929 (N08W30). The eruption is characterized by opening field lines and dimming best seen in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2022-01-16T19:20Z. The eruption is also visible in the northwest in STEREO A EUVI 195 with the same source signatures. UPDATE: This arrival signature exhibits an increase B-tot from 5 to 9nT with a coinciding increase in density. A subsequent rotation can be seen in the B-field components corresponding with a decrease in temperature that is indicative of a flux rope passage.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-18T23:04Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-20T00:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-01-17T02:35Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 562
Longitude (deg): W024
Latitude (deg): N10
Half-angular width (deg): 19

Notes: Re-analysis of CME spawned from long-period C2 flare from AR2929 in NW quadrant. Main bulk of ejecta angled above and ahead of Earth in orbit, but some evidence of concurrent emission to N and NE of ecliptic may make for some form of partial halo, most visible on Lasco C2. MOSWOC Enlil deterministic run is a very faint glancing blow, but significant minority of MOSWOC Enlil ensemble members have a stronger hit, mainly within UTC day of Thursday 20 January. Low confidence given uncertainty in attributing N and NE-heading portions of any ejecta, higher confidence in main NW-heading portion.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 19.77 hour(s)
Difference: -24.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-01-18T03:18Z

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