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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-01-16T20:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-16T20:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18867/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a C2.6 flare from active region 12929 (N08W30). The eruption is characterized by opening field lines and dimming best seen in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2022-01-16T19:20Z. The eruption is also visible in the northwest in STEREO A EUVI 195 with the same source signatures. UPDATE: This arrival signature exhibits an increase B-tot from 5 to 9nT with a coinciding increase in density. A subsequent rotation can be seen in the B-field components corresponding with a decrease in temperature that is indicative of a flux rope passage.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-18T23:04Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-20T03:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.33333
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 2.48 hour(s)
Difference: -27.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-01-18T20:35Z

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