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Prediction for CME (2022-01-18T18:23:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2022-01-18T18:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18877/-1 CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It is associated with an M1.5 flare from AR 12929 (N07W53) and brightening/EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 starting aorund 2022-01-18T17:20Z. The source signature is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 toward the NW limb around the same time. The CME arrival includes weak magnetic shock and jumps in solar wind density/speed/temp, preceded by a weak pileup. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-21T12:55Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-21T02:23Z Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0 Prediction Method: SARM Prediction Method Note: CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-01-18 21:28 - Time at C2: 2022-01-18 18:23 - Radial speed: 962.0 km/s - Half angle: 47 deg . Eruption location: N04W53 Inferences: - No flare association was found  Predictions for Earth: - In-situ shock speed: 694.60 km/s - Shock arrival time: 2022-01-21 02:23 (i.e. predicted transit time: 56.00 hours) Kp: {3.0 - 4.0]Lead Time: 60.83 hour(s) Difference: 10.53 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-01-19T00:05Z |
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