CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-01-18T18:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-01-18T18:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18877/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It is associated with an M1.5 flare from AR 12929 (N07W53) and brightening/EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 starting aorund 2022-01-18T17:20Z. The source signature is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 toward the NW limb around the same time. The CME arrival includes weak magnetic shock and jumps in solar wind density/speed/temp, preceded by a weak pileup.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-21T12:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-20T20:53Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 962.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 1029.49 Acceleration: -2.50947 Duration in seconds: 181826.92 Duration in days: 2.1044782 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -2.51 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 573.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 20/01/2022 Time: 20:53 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 53.92 hour(s)
Difference: 16.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2022-01-19T07:00Z
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