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Prediction for CME (2022-01-18T18:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-18T18:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18877/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It is associated with an M1.5 flare from AR 12929 (N07W53) and brightening/EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 starting aorund 2022-01-18T17:20Z. The source signature is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 toward the NW limb around the same time. The CME arrival includes weak magnetic shock and jumps in solar wind density/speed/temp, preceded by a weak pileup.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-21T12:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-21T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:


:Issued: 2022 Jan 19 1231 UTC
...
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20119
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jan 2022, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Jan 2022 until 21 Jan 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2022  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 025
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2022  10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 024
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2022  10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 022
COMMENT: There are 4 visible active regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 2929
produced an M1.5 flare peaking at 17:44 UT on 18 January. This region has
decayed into a beta magnetic field configuration, region 2930 can also
produce flaring activity. C-class flares can be expected in the next 24
hours, more M-class flares are possible. In the case of large flares, since
these active regions are located close to the west limb, a proton event is
possible at the Earth,

The flare described above was related to a CME of about 90 degrees width,
directed to the northwest with a speed of 900 km/s. A possible glancing
blow at the Earth can be expected on 21 January.

Lead Time: 50.27 hour(s)
Difference: -5.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2022-01-19T10:39Z

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