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Prediction for CME (2022-01-19T06:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-19T06:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18889/-1
CME Note: This CME visible to the SW in STEREO A COR2 imagery is associated with a filament eruption centered near S50W20 visible in SDO AIA 304 starting as early as 2022-01-19T02:46Z. The event is very faintly seen as a partial halo to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 white light coronagraph imagery. There is some rotation-like behavior in the field components, but theres no magnetic shock and no arrival is supported by the density/speed/temperature data.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-23T15:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-01-19T18:37Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 288
Longitude (deg): 17W
Latitude (deg): 16S
Half-angular width (deg): 22

Notes: Weak signal on SOHO, mainly fit to STEREO A.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 79.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-01-20T08:00Z

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